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This paper highlights the challenges for realising Japan's long-term strategy (LTS) for decarbonisation, also referred to as the mid-century strategy (MCS), and the role of scenario analysis in the formulation and strengthening of this strategy. Although the government of Japan declared on 26 October 2020 to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to net-zero by 2050, this paper analysed the goal of 80% GHG emissions reduction goal by 2050, due to the data availability of the model analysis for the LTS. Materialising the deep societal transformations needed across all economic sectors for realising Japan’s LTS goal will be a challenge for Japan, given that changes will need to occur at a speed and scale that are likely beyond anything experienced in the past. Therefore, identifying these challenges is fundamental to assess the feasibility of the LTS. Long-term scenario analysis is also crucial for this assessment, as these scenarios describe the range of possible outcomes from different socio-economic developments in the long term, covering a broad set of aspects in a quantitative and systematic manner. To clarify these challenges, this paper reviews Japan’s LTS, and compares the results from model analysis on long-term scenarios (by 2050) against the historical trends and the NDC commitments (by 2030). This knowledge is fundamental for decision-makers in order to assess the uncertainty involved in the formulation and realisation of the LTS.

The Communique of the G7 Summit in 2018 reaffirmed their strong commitment to implement the Paris Agreement through reducing emissions while strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability as well as ensuring a just transition. Discussions of climate and energy justice, the key basis of the aforementioned consideration, focus on who produced no contributions to the increase of the climate change become subject to its concentrated adverse effects especially marginalised and displaced communities from climate change. Yet, unfortunately, the impacts of the power sector decarbonisation in fossil fuel communities have been less considered in this discussion, especially the coal phase-out in China, the world largest coal producer and India, the second largest. It is indisputable that the reduction of fossil fuel use is necessary step and right direction to mitigate climate change and decrease air pollutionso that we could be benefited from better environment. However, the transition impacts to workers and communities those have sacrificed their life and environment for the world economic growth and now affected from economics and social depression should be considered as one of components of the climate justice discussion. This presentation coversaspects and considerations that influenced the degree and scale of change in fossil fuel industries in Japan, China and India; encourage in depth recognitionof the local situation; and suggest inter/national climate policies must provide a fair and just transition toward sustainable future.

This study develops a map to identify SDGs and their targets within long term global scenarios of climate mitigation. This map is fundamental to analyse the alignment of climate goals with the SDGs, and the interactions with SDGs in long term scenarios. A methodology is proposed to identify and categorize the coverage and treatment of SDGs and their targets among the variables included in global scenarios from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The outcomes show that these scenarios have a moderate coverage of the entire set of SDG targets, with a wider representation of indicators related to health (SDG3), sustainableenergy (SDG7), work and economic growth (SDG9), and to a limited extent on indicators related to poverty (SDG1), education (SDG4), cities and communities (SDG11), consumption and production (SDG12), and life on land (SDG15). To cover a wider rangeof targets, scenarios have to extend the scope of reported variables, improve the models producing such scenarios along with integration of tools from different disciplines.

This presentation introduces the "Climate pOlicy assessment and Mitigation Modeling to Integrate national and global Transition pathways" (COMMIT) project. The project aims to: 1) improved modelling of national low-carbon emission pathway; and 2) improved analysis of country contributions to the global ambition of the Paris Agreement. This project contributes to the assessment of national commitments to climate negotiations (NDCs under the Paris Agreement), and provides inputs to the Talanoa Dialogue and IPCC processes. It is based on a research grant from European Commission DG Climate Action, implemented via a consortium led by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), and members include organisations from 11 countries. The project has several interactions with the CD-Links project (events, information exchanges). IGES, in collaboration with NIES, contributes to this project with Japan's and global assessments of emission pathways and mitigation targets, based on AIM models.

This study presents a multi-model analysis of long-term climate policy of Japan, whose mid-century strategy is subject to an ongoing policy debate, focusing on the carbon dioxide emissions in the energy sector. The models demonstrate multiple future pathways of the low-carbon energy system in Japan. The median of marginal abatement cost is found to be around 1070 USD2010/tCO2 for a high GDP growth scenario and 870 USD2010/tCO2 for a medium GDP growth scenario. The residual emissions are dominated by the industry sector, suggesting a need to accelerate development of industrial mitigation options.

Integrated assessment models (IAM) provide key information to allow policymakers to understand the possible outcomes of alternative development and climate policy scenarios. However, the complexity and large size of information resulting from IAMs, prevents straightforward communication of key insights to policy makers, unless a “translation channel” is present. This poster introduces the latest outcomes in the development of this translation tool, named “mipplot.” It is a hands-on tool for both non-expert and expert users. The operation method of tool is simple, can analysis all data and generate the plots in the same time.

We assess the feasibility of Japan’s NDC along with 80% emission reduction by 2050, comparing the role of uncertain nuclear power deployment to other key uncertainties by means of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.

The Paris Agreement invited Parties to develop low-emission development strategies. This study presents national low-emission scenarios to inform such strategies for Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the USA. We use country-level technology-rich energy-economy and integrated assessment models that include detailed representations of the energy, transport and land systems and provide insights on emissions, energy system and economic implications of low-emission pathways until 2050. We show that the low-emission pathways of most economies studied here are consistent with pathways limiting global temperature increase to well-below 2 °C, while emission reductions are achieved through uptake of renewable energy, energy efficiency improvements and electrification of energy services. The role of mitigation options like nuclear, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and advanced biofuels is differentiates across countries, depending on national priorities, specificities and resource endowments. The energy system transformation requires a pronounced reallocation of investments towards low-carbon technologies, but without raising significant affordability issues in most countries. National pathways improve the consistency between country policy plans with global temperature goals and capture structural heterogeneities and broad socio-economic considerations.

Achieving long term climate mitigation targets for Japan requires deep transformations in the energy system, in particular in the power generation sector. Decarbonization of this sector is unclear due to the uncertain nuclear policy after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. However, many other uncertainties need to be considered, namely the availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS), the cost reductions for renewable energy technologies to be scaled up, the improvement of energy efficiency, and the cost of fossil fuels. This study analyses the transformations in the Japanese energy system to realize 80% emission reduction by 2050, comparing the role of uncertain nuclear power deployment to other key uncertainties by means of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.

本稿では日本の2050年までの温室効果ガス，エネルギーシステムのシナリオを，複数のエネルギーモデルもしくは統合評価モデルを用いて定量化し，それらを相互比較することによって，不確実性を踏まえた長期の気候政策の評価を行う．

The achievement of long-term targets for climate mitigation in Japan faces several uncertainties with respect to the availability of power generation technologies. Starting with the difficult situation of nuclear power deployment after the 2011 events, the effect of technological constraints on the reduction of large amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the country, and the associated economic burden remains unclear. We assess the feasibility of climate mitigation targets in Japan up to year 2050 with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model under several technological constraints in the power sector.

The integrated assessment model (IAM) provide key information to allow policymakers to understand the possible outcomes of alternative development and climate policy scenarios. However, the complexity and large size of information resulting from IAMs, prevents straightforward communication of key insights to policy makers, unless a “translation channel” is present. Compilation of data from multiple IAMs into a consistent format is fundamental for effective dissemination of model insights to policymakers and academics involved in climate policy. To fulfill this aim, a tool was developed to serve a two-fold purpose: gathering of IAM scenario data into a consistent dataset, and straightforward visualization of key data from multiple IAMs. The approach adopted in the development of the tool can be potentially applied to any IAM MIP that follows the IAMC data submission format. Moreover, the tool can be delivered as a hands-on tool for non-experts to visualize with minimum effort the information from mitigation scenarios.

The feasibility of the commitment for climate mitigation encapsulated in the NDC of Japan may be hindered by the uncertain situation of nuclear power supply. We developed scenarios to assess Japan’s NDC under different nuclear power supply paths. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is applied to evaluate the impact on the energy mix, and the mitigation costs in the long term. It was found that the mitigation target set in Japan’s NDC, aiming for 80% emission reduction in 2050, is feasible under several nuclear power supply scenarios. The impact of nuclear power availability on the energy mix and the mitigation costs was relatively small compared to the effect of implementing mitigation.

A tool was developed to serve a two-fold purpose: gathering of scenario data from integrated assessment models (IAMs) into a consistent dataset, and straightforward visualization of key data from multiple models. The approach adopted in the development of the tool can be potentially applied to any IAM MIP that follows the IAMC data submission format. Moreover, the tool can be delivered as a hands-on tool for non-experts to visualize with minimum effort the information from mitigation scenarios.

The Ganges basin provides essential water for drinking, irrigation, industrial use and power generation. Global climate change will affect the water availability in the basin and inevitably intensify the competition for water among major users, particularly from thermal power generation. Knowledge on the spatial distribution of water supply-demand gaps and the water stress for meeting the cooling water requirements is crucial for effective energy planning and water resource management. This article presents the outcomes from the India case study based on an integrated assessment of the water-energy nexus in the Ganges sub-basins focusing on water stress assessment for thermal power plants up to 2050 under climate change conditions. The results from the hydrological modelling show that the overall water availability in the four studied sub-basins, namely Chambal, Damodar, Gandak and Yamuna, will increase by 13%, 33%, 21% and 28%, respectively, in 2050 compared with the levels in 2010 under the greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 4.5. However, water availability will not be evenly distributed throughout the year and in some sub-basins water will be less available in the dry seasons. For example, Yamuna will have 25% less water in the dry season in the 2050s. Steady growth of water demand will cause serious water deficit in 30 out of 40 districts in Yamuna and 18 out of 33 districts in Gandak in 2050 under RCP 4.5. Consequently, 40% of the existing and planned thermal power plants in Damodar and almost all in Gandak and Yamuna will face high water risks in the future, endangering the energy security in India. Energy development planning and water resource management therefore need to take into account the water risks posed to future thermal power generation and consider the relocation of the planned installations from water-stressed areas (particularly Gandak) to alternative locations with water surplus (such as Chambal). It is also important to adopt less water-intensive power generation technologies and cooling systems for the planned and new installations.