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We describe the geographical variation in tree species composition across Amazonian forests and show how environmental conditions are associated with species turnover. Our analyses are based on 2023 forest inventory plots (1 ha) that provide abundance data for a total of 5188 tree species. Within-plot species composition reflected both local environmental conditions (especially soil nutrients and hydrology) and geographical regions. A broader-scale view of species turnover was obtained by interpolating the relative tree species abundances over Amazonia into 47,441 0.1-degree grid cells. Two main dimensions of spatial change in tree species composition were identified. The first was a gradient between western Amazonia at the Andean forelands (with young geology and relatively nutrient-rich soils) and central-eastern Amazonia associated with the Guiana and Brazilian Shields (with more ancient geology and poor soils). The second gradient was between the wet forests of the northwest and the drier forests in southern Amazonia. Isolines linking cells of similar composition crossed major Amazonian rivers, suggesting that tree species distributions are not limited by rivers. Even though some areas of relatively sharp species turnover were identified, mostly the tree species composition changed gradually over large extents, which does not support delimiting clear discrete biogeographic regions within Amazonia., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) is the primary global source of anthropogenic mercury (Hg) emissions. It has impacted the Amazon rainforest in the Peruvian region of Madre de Dios. However, few studies have investigated Hg's distribution in terrestrial ecosystems in this region. We studied Hg's distribution and its predictors in soil and native plant species from artisanal mining sites. Total Hg concentrations were determined in soil samples collected at different depths (0-5 cm and 5-30 cm) and plant samples (roots, shoots, leaves) from 19 native plant species collected in different land cover categories: naked soil (L1), gravel piles (L2), natural regeneration (L3), reforestation (L4), and primary forest (L5) in the mining sites. Hg levels in air were also studied using passive air samplers. The highest Hg concentrations in soil (average 0.276 and 0.210 mg kg -1 dw.) were found in the intact primary forest (L5) at 0-5 cm depth and in the plant rooting zones at 5-30 cm depth, respectively. Moreover, the highest Hg levels in plants (average 0.64 mg kg -1 dw) were found in foliage of intact primary forest (L5). The results suggest that the forest in these sites receives Hg from the atmosphere through leaf deposition and that Hg accumulates in the soil surrounding the roots. The Hg levels found in the plant leaves of the primary forest are the highest ever recorded in this region, exceeding values found in forests impacted by Hg pollution worldwide and raising concerns about the extent of the ASGM impact in this ecosystem. Correlations between Hg concentrations in soil, bioaccumulation in plant roots, and soil physical-chemical characteristics were determined. Linear regression models showed that the soil organic matter content (SOM), pH, and electrical conductivity (EC) predict the Hg distribution and accumulation in soil and bioaccumulation in root plants., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Mercury (Hg) endangers human and wildlife health globally, primarily due to its release from artisanal small-scale gold mining (ASGM). During gold extraction, Hg is emitted into the environment and converted to highly toxic methylmercury by microorganisms. In Madre de Dios (MDD), Peru, ASGM dominates the economy and has transformed rainforests into expansive deforested areas punctuated by abandoned mining ponds. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of bats as bioindicators for mercury pollution intensity in tropical terrestrial ecosystems impacted by ASGM. We collected 290 bat fur samples from three post-ASGM sites and one control site in Madre de Dios. Our results showed a wide Hg distribution in bats (0.001 to 117.71 mg/kg) strongly influenced by feeding habits. Insectivorous and piscivorous bats from ASGM sites presented elevated levels of Hg surpassing the mercury small mammal threshold for small mammals (10 mg/kg). We observed the highest reported fur mercury concentrations for insectivorous Neotropical bats reported to date (Rhynchonycteris naso, 117 mg/kg). Our findings further confirm that Hg emissions from ASGM are entering local food webs and exposing wildlife species at several trophic levels to higher levels of Hg than in areas not impacted by mining. We also found that three bat genera consistently showed increased Hg levels in ASGM sites relative to controls indicating potential usefulness as bioindicators of mercury loading in terrestrial ecosystems impacted by artisanal and small-scale gold mining., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)

Artisanal and Small-Scale Gold Mining (ASGM) represents a significant source of anthropogenic mercury emissions to the environment, with potentially severe implications for avian biodiversity. In the Madre de Dios department of the southern Peruvian Amazon, ASGM activities have created landscapes marred by deforestation and post-mining water bodies (mining ponds) with notable methylation potential. While data on Hg contamination in terrestrial wildlife remains limited, this study measures Hg exposure in several terrestrial bird species as bioindicators. Total Hg (THg) levels in feathers from birds near water bodies, including mining ponds associated with ASGM areas and oxbow lakes, were analyzed. Our results showed significantly higher Hg concentrations in birds from ASGM sites with mean ± SD of 3.14 ± 7.97 µg/g (range: 0.27 to 72.75 µg/g, n = 312) compared to control sites with a mean of 0.47 ± 0.42 µg/g (range: 0.04 to 1.89 µg/g, n = 52). Factors such as trophic guilds, ASGM presence, and water body area significantly influenced feather Hg concentrations. Notably, piscivorous birds exhibited the highest Hg concentration (31.03 ± 25.25 µg/g, n = 12) exceeding known concentrations that affect reproductive success, where one measurement of Chloroceryle americana (Green kingfisher; 72.7 µg/g) is among the highest ever reported in South America. This research quantifies Hg exposure in avian communities in Amazonian regions affected by ASGM, highlighting potential risks to regional bird populations., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)

Amazonia's floodplain system is the largest and most biodiverse on Earth. Although forests are crucial to the ecological integrity of floodplains, our understanding of their species composition and how this may differ from surrounding forest types is still far too limited, particularly as changing inundation regimes begin to reshape floodplain tree communities and the critical ecosystem functions they underpin. Here we address this gap by taking a spatially explicit look at Amazonia-wide patterns of tree-species turnover and ecological specialization of the region's floodplain forests. We show that the majority of Amazonian tree species can inhabit floodplains, and about a sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is ecologically specialized on floodplains. The degree of specialization in floodplain communities is driven by regional flood patterns, with the most compositionally differentiated floodplain forests located centrally within the fluvial network and contingent on the most extraordinary flood magnitudes regionally. Our results provide a spatially explicit view of ecological specialization of floodplain forest communities and expose the need for whole-basin hydrological integrity to protect the Amazon's tree diversity and its function., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Alpine grassland vegetation supports globally important biodiversity and ecosystems that are increasingly threatened by climate warming and other environmental changes. Trait-based approaches can support understanding of vegetation responses to global change drivers and consequences for ecosystem functioning. In six sites along a 1314 m elevational gradient in Puna grasslands in the Peruvian Andes, we collected datasets on vascular plant composition, plant functional traits, biomass, ecosystem fluxes, and climate data over three years. The data were collected in the wet and dry season and from plots with different fire histories. We selected traits associated with plant resource use, growth, and life history strategies (leaf area, leaf dry/wet mass, leaf thickness, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf C, N, P content, C and N isotopes). The trait dataset contains 3,665 plant records from 145 taxa, 54,036 trait measurements (increasing the trait data coverage of the regional flora by 420%) covering 14 traits and 121 plant taxa (ca. 40% of which have no previous publicly available trait data) across 33 families., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Trees structure the Earth's most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations 1-6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth's 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories 7 , we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world's most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Using 2.046 botanically-inventoried tree plots across the largest tropical forest on Earth, we mapped tree species-diversity and tree species-richness at 0.1-degree resolution, and investigated drivers for diversity and richness. Using only location, stratified by forest type, as predictor, our spatial model, to the best of our knowledge, provides the most accurate map of tree diversity in Amazonia to date, explaining approximately 70% of the tree diversity and species-richness. Large soil-forest combinations determine a significant percentage of the variation in tree species-richness and tree alpha-diversity in Amazonian forest-plots. We suggest that the size and fragmentation of these systems drive their large-scale diversity patterns and hence local diversity. A model not using location but cumulative water deficit, tree density, and temperature seasonality explains 47% of the tree species-richness in the terra-firme forest in Amazonia. Over large areas across Amazonia, residuals of this relationship are small and poorly spatially structured, suggesting that much of the residual variation may be local. The Guyana Shield area has consistently negative residuals, showing that this area has lower tree species-richness than expected by our models. We provide extensive plot meta-data, including tree density, tree alpha-diversity and tree species-richness results and gridded maps at 0.1-degree resolution., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Indigenous societies are known to have occupied the Amazon basin for more than 12,000 years, but the scale of their influence on Amazonian forests remains uncertain. We report the discovery, using LIDAR (light detection and ranging) information from across the basin, of 24 previously undetected pre-Columbian earthworks beneath the forest canopy. Modeled distribution and abundance of large-scale archaeological sites across Amazonia suggest that between 10,272 and 23,648 sites remain to be discovered and that most will be found in the southwest. We also identified 53 domesticated tree species significantly associated with earthwork occurrence probability, likely suggesting past management practices. Closed-canopy forests across Amazonia are likely to contain thousands of undiscovered archaeological sites around which pre-Columbian societies actively modified forests, a discovery that opens opportunities for better understanding the magnitude of ancient human influence on Amazonia and its current state.

Camera traps and drone surveys both leverage advancing technologies to study dynamic wildlife populations with little disturbance. Both techniques entail strengths and weaknesses, and common camera trap methods can be confounded by unrealistic assumptions and prerequisite conditions. We compared three methods to estimate the population density of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virgnianus ) in a section of Pilot Mountain State Park, NC, USA: (1) camera trapping using mark-resight ratios or (2) N-mixture modeling and (3) aerial thermal videography from a drone platform. All three methods yielded similar density estimates, suggesting that they converged on an accurate estimate. We also included environmental covariates in the N-mixture modeling to explore spatial habitat use, and we fit models for each season to understand temporal changes in population density. Deer occurred in greater densities on warmer, south-facing slopes in the autumn and winter and on cooler north-facing slopes and in areas with flatter terrain in the summer. Seasonal density estimates over two years suggested an annual cycle of higher densities in autumn and winter than in summer, indicating that the region may function as a refuge during the hunting season.

In a time of rapid global change, the question of what determines patterns in species abundance distribution remains a priority for understanding the complex dynamics of ecosystems. The constrained maximization of information entropy provides a framework for the understanding of such complex systems dynamics by a quantitative analysis of important constraints via predictions using least biased probability distributions. We apply it to over two thousand hectares of Amazonian tree inventories across seven forest types and thirteen functional traits, representing major global axes of plant strategies. Results show that constraints formed by regional relative abundances of genera explain eight times more of local relative abundances than constraints based on directional selection for specific functional traits, although the latter does show clear signals of environmental dependency. These results provide a quantitative insight by inference from large-scale data using cross-disciplinary methods, furthering our understanding of ecological dynamics., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

The Matsigenka people living traditional lifestyles in remote areas of the Amazon rely on a fish-based diet that exposes them to methylmercury (MeHg) at levels that have been associated with decreased IQ scores. In this study, the association between Hg levels and working memory was explored using the framework of the Multicomponent Model. Working memory tasks were modified to fit the culture and language of the Matsigenka when needed and included measures for verbal storage (Word Span) visuospatial storage (Corsi Block Task) and a measure of executive functions, the Self-Ordered Pointing Task (SOPT). An innovation of the Trail Making Tests A & B (TMT A & B) was pilot tested as another potential measure of executive functions. The mean hair Hg levels of 30 participants, ages 12 to 55 years, from three different communities (Maizal, Cacaotal and Yomibato) was 7.0 ppm (sd = 2.40), well above the World Health Organization (WHO) limit for hair of 2.0 ppm and ranged from 1.8 to 14.2 ppm, with 98% of a broader sample of 152 individuals exceeding the WHO limit. Hair Hg levels showed significant associations with cognitive performance, but the degree varied in magnitude according to the type of task. Hg levels were negatively associated with executive functioning performance (SOPT errors), while Hg levels and years of education predicted visuospatial performance (Corsi Block accuracy). Education was the only predictor of Word Span accuracy. The results show that Hg exposure is negatively associated with working memory performance when there is an increased reliance on executive functioning. Based on our findings and the review of the experimental research, we suggest that the SOPT and the Corsi Block have the potential to be alternatives to general intelligence tests when studying remote groups with extensive cultural differences.

Understanding long-term trends in marine ecosystems requires accurate and repeatable counts of fishes and other aquatic organisms on spatial and temporal scales that are difficult or impossible to achieve with diver-based surveys. Long-term, spatially distributed cameras, like those used in terrestrial camera trapping, have not been successfully applied in marine systems due to limitations of the aquatic environment. Here, we develop methodology for a system of low-cost, long-term camera traps (Dispersed Environment Aquatic Cameras), deployable over large spatial scales in remote marine environments. We use machine learning to classify the large volume of images collected by the cameras. We present a case study of these combined techniques' use by addressing fish movement and feeding behavior related to halos, a well-documented benthic pattern in shallow tropical reefscapes. Cameras proved able to function continuously underwater at deployed depths (up to 7 m, with later versions deployed to 40 m) with no maintenance or monitoring for over five months and collected a total of over 100,000 images in time-lapse mode (by 15 minutes) during daylight hours. Our ResNet-50-based deep learning model achieved 92.5% overall accuracy in sorting images with and without fishes, and diver surveys revealed that the camera images accurately represented local fish communities. The cameras and machine learning classification represent the first successful method for broad-scale underwater camera trap deployment, and our case study demonstrates the cameras' potential for addressing questions of marine animal behavior, distributions, and large-scale spatial patterns., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The number of reforestation projects worldwide is increasing. In many cases funding is obtained through the claimed carbon capture of the trees, presented as immediate and durable, whereas reforested plots need time and maintenance to realise their carbon capture potential. Further, claims usually overlook the environmental costs of natural or anthropogenic disturbances during the forest's lifetime, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the reforestation are not allowed for. This study uses life cycle assessment to quantify the carbon footprint of setting up a reforestation plot in the Peruvian Amazon. In parallel, we combine a soil carbon model with an above- and below-ground plant carbon model to predict the increase in carbon stocks after planting. We compare our results with the carbon capture claims made by a reforestation platform. Our results show major errors in carbon accounting in reforestation projects if they (1) ignore the time needed for trees to reach their carbon capture potential; (2) ignore the GHG emissions involved in setting up a plot; (3) report the carbon capture potential per tree planted, thereby ignoring limitations at the forest ecosystem level; or (4) under-estimate tree losses due to inevitable human and climatic disturbances. Further, we show that applications of biochar during reforestation can partially compensate for project emissions., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, but the estimated species richness is very much debated. Here, we apply an ensemble of parametric estimators and a novel technique that includes conspecific spatial aggregation to an extended database of forest plots with up-to-date taxonomy. We show that the species abundance distribution of Amazonia is best approximated by a logseries with aggregated individuals, where aggregation increases with rarity. By averaging several methods to estimate total richness, we confirm that over 15,000 tree species are expected to occur in Amazonia. We also show that using ten times the number of plots would result in an increase to just ~50% of those 15,000 estimated species. To get a more complete sample of all tree species, rigorous field campaigns may be needed but the number of trees in Amazonia will remain an estimate for years to come.

Spatially continuous data on functional diversity will improve our ability to predict global change impacts on ecosystem properties. We applied methods that combine imaging spectroscopy and foliar traits to estimate remotely sensed functional diversity in tropical forests across an Amazon-to-Andes elevation gradient (215 to 3537 m). We evaluated the scale dependency of community assembly processes and examined whether tropical forest productivity could be predicted by remotely sensed functional diversity. Functional richness of the community decreased with increasing elevation. Scale-dependent signals of trait convergence, consistent with environmental filtering, play an important role in explaining the range of trait variation within each site and along elevation. Single- and multitrait remotely sensed measures of functional diversity were important predictors of variation in rates of net and gross primary productivity. Our findings highlight the potential of remotely sensed functional diversity to inform trait-based ecology and trait diversity-ecosystem function linkages in hyperdiverse tropical forests., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).)

Tropical forests are known for their high diversity. Yet, forest patches do occur in the tropics where a single tree species is dominant. Such "monodominant" forests are known from all of the main tropical regions. For Amazonia, we sampled the occurrence of monodominance in a massive, basin-wide database of forest-inventory plots from the Amazon Tree Diversity Network (ATDN). Utilizing a simple defining metric of at least half of the trees ≥ 10 cm diameter belonging to one species, we found only a few occurrences of monodominance in Amazonia, and the phenomenon was not significantly linked to previously hypothesized life history traits such wood density, seed mass, ectomycorrhizal associations, or Rhizobium nodulation. In our analysis, coppicing (the formation of sprouts at the base of the tree or on roots) was the only trait significantly linked to monodominance. While at specific locales coppicing or ectomycorrhizal associations may confer a considerable advantage to a tree species and lead to its monodominance, very few species have these traits. Mining of the ATDN dataset suggests that monodominance is quite rare in Amazonia, and may be linked primarily to edaphic factors.

Liverworts and mosses are a major component of the epiphyte flora of tropical montane forest ecosystems. Canopy access was used to analyse the distribution and vertical stratification of bryophyte epiphytes within tree crowns at nine forest sites across a 3400 m elevational gradient in Peru, from the Amazonian basin to the high Andes. The stable isotope compositions of bryophyte organic material ( 13 C/ 12 C and 18 O/ 16 O) are associated with surface water diffusive limitations and, along with C/N content, provide a generic index for the extent of cloud immersion. From lowland to cloud forest δ 13 C increased from -33‰ to -27‰, while δ 18 O increased from 16.3‰ to 18.0‰. Epiphytic bryophyte and associated canopy soil biomass in the cloud immersion zone was estimated at up to 45 t dry mass ha -1 , and overall water holding capacity was equivalent to a 20 mm precipitation event. The study emphasizes the importance of diverse bryophyte communities in sequestering carbon in threatened habitats, with stable isotope analysis allowing future elevational shifts in the cloud base associated with changes in climate to be tracked.

More than 200 years ago, Alexander von Humboldt reported that tropical plant species richness decreased with increasing elevation and decreasing temperature. Surprisingly, coordinated patterns in plant, bacterial, and fungal diversity on tropical mountains have not yet been observed, despite the central role of soil microorganisms in terrestrial biogeochemistry and ecology. We studied an Andean transect traversing 3.5 km in elevation to test whether the species diversity and composition of tropical forest plants, soil bacteria, and fungi follow similar biogeographical patterns with shared environmental drivers. We found coordinated changes with elevation in all three groups: species richness declined as elevation increased, and the compositional dissimilarity among communities increased with increased separation in elevation, although changes in plant diversity were larger than in bacteria and fungi. Temperature was the dominant driver of these diversity gradients, with weak influences of edaphic properties, including soil pH. The gradients in microbial diversity were strongly correlated with the activities of enzymes involved in organic matter cycling, and were accompanied by a transition in microbial traits towards slower-growing, oligotrophic taxa at higher elevations. We provide the first evidence of coordinated temperature-driven patterns in the diversity and distribution of three major biotic groups in tropical ecosystems: soil bacteria, fungi, and plants. These findings suggest that interrelated and fundamental patterns of plant and microbial communities with shared environmental drivers occur across landscape scales. These patterns are revealed where soil pH is relatively constant, and have implications for tropical forest communities under future climate change., (© 2018 The Authors Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Ecological Society of America.)

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in ecology and conservation. Presence-only SDMs such as MaxEnt frequently use natural history collections (NHCs) as occurrence data, given their huge numbers and accessibility. NHCs are often spatially biased which may generate inaccuracies in SDMs. Here, we test how the distribution of NHCs and MaxEnt predictions relates to a spatial abundance model, based on a large plot dataset for Amazonian tree species, using inverse distance weighting (IDW). We also propose a new pipeline to deal with inconsistencies in NHCs and to limit the area of occupancy of the species. We found a significant but weak positive relationship between the distribution of NHCs and IDW for 66% of the species. The relationship between SDMs and IDW was also significant but weakly positive for 95% of the species, and sensitivity for both analyses was high. Furthermore, the pipeline removed half of the NHCs records. Presence-only SDM applications should consider this limitation, especially for large biodiversity assessments projects, when they are automatically generated without subsequent checking. Our pipeline provides a conservative estimate of a species' area of occupancy, within an area slightly larger than its extent of occurrence, compatible to e.g. IUCN red list assessments.

The extent to which pre-Columbian societies altered Amazonian landscapes is hotly debated. We performed a basin-wide analysis of pre-Columbian impacts on Amazonian forests by overlaying known archaeological sites in Amazonia with the distributions and abundances of 85 woody species domesticated by pre-Columbian peoples. Domesticated species are five times more likely than nondomesticated species to be hyperdominant. Across the basin, the relative abundance and richness of domesticated species increase in forests on and around archaeological sites. In southwestern and eastern Amazonia, distance to archaeological sites strongly influences the relative abundance and richness of domesticated species. Our analyses indicate that modern tree communities in Amazonia are structured to an important extent by a long history of plant domestication by Amazonian peoples., (Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened plant species on Earth by 22%. We show that the trends observed in Amazonia apply to trees throughout the tropics, and we predict that most of the world's >40,000 tropical tree species now qualify as globally threatened. A gap analysis suggests that existing Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories will protect viable populations of most threatened species if these areas suffer no further degradation, highlighting the key roles that protected areas, indigenous peoples, and improved governance can play in preventing large-scale extinctions in the tropics in this century.

General patterns of forest dynamics and productivity in the Andes Mountains are poorly characterized. Here we present the first large-scale study of Andean forest dynamics using a set of 63 permanent forest plots assembled over the past two decades. In the North-Central Andes tree turnover (mortality and recruitment) and tree growth declined with increasing elevation and decreasing temperature. In addition, basal area increased in Lower Montane Moist Forests but did not change in Higher Montane Humid Forests. However, at higher elevations the lack of net basal area change and excess of mortality over recruitment suggests negative environmental impacts. In North-Western Argentina, forest dynamics appear to be influenced by land use history in addition to environmental variation. Taken together, our results indicate that combinations of abiotic and biotic factors that vary across elevation gradients are important determinants of tree turnover and productivity in the Andes. More extensive and longer-term monitoring and analyses of forest dynamics in permanent plots will be necessary to understand how demographic processes and woody biomass are responding to changing environmental conditions along elevation gradients through this century.

Terrestrial carbon conservation can provide critical environmental, social, and climate benefits. Yet, the geographically complex mosaic of threats to, and opportunities for, conserving carbon in landscapes remain largely unresolved at national scales. Using a new high-resolution carbon mapping approach applied to Perú, a megadiverse country undergoing rapid land use change, we found that at least 0.8 Pg of aboveground carbon stocks are at imminent risk of emission from land use activities. Map-based information on the natural controls over carbon density, as well as current ecosystem threats and protections, revealed three biogeographically explicit strategies that fully offset forthcoming land-use emissions. High-resolution carbon mapping affords targeted interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in rapidly developing tropical nations.

The high diversity and abundance of vascular epiphytes in tropical montane cloud forest is associated with frequent cloud immersion, which is thought to protect plants from drought stress. Increasing temperature and rising cloud bases associated with climate change may increase epiphyte drought stress, leading to species and biomass loss. We tested the hypothesis that warmer and drier conditions associated with a lifting cloud base will lead to increased mortality and/or decreased recruitment of epiphyte ramets, altering species composition in epiphyte mats. By using a reciprocal transplant design, where epiphyte mats were transplanted across an altitudinal gradient of increasing cloud immersion, we differentiated between the effects of warmer and drier conditions from the more general prediction of niche theory that transplanting epiphytes in any direction away from their home elevation should result in reduced performance. Effects differed among species, but effects were generally stronger and more negative for epiphytes in mats transplanted down slope from the highest elevation, into warmer and drier conditions, than for epiphyte mats transplanted from other elevations. In contrast, epiphytes from lower elevations showed greater resistance to drought in all treatments. Epiphyte community composition changed with elevation, but over the timescale of the experiment there were no consistent changes in species composition. Our results suggest some epiphytes may show resistance to climate change depending on the environmental and evolutionary context. In particular, sites where high rainfall makes cloud immersion less important for epiphyte water-balance, or where occasional drought has previously selected for drought-resistant taxa, may be less adversely affected by predicted climate changes.

The extent and intensity of pre-Columbian impacts on lowland Amazonia have remained uncertain and controversial. Various indicators can be used to gauge the impact of pre-Columbian societies, but the formation of nutrient-enriched terra preta soils has been widely accepted as an indication of long-term settlement and site fidelity. Using known and newly discovered terra preta sites and maximum entropy algorithms (Maxent), we determined the influence of regional environmental conditions on the likelihood that terra pretas would have been formed at any given location in lowland Amazonia. Terra pretas were most frequently found in central and eastern Amazonia along the lower courses of the major Amazonian rivers. Terrain, hydrologic and soil characteristics were more important predictors of terra preta distributions than climatic conditions. Our modelling efforts indicated that terra pretas are likely to be found throughout ca 154 063 km(2) or 3.2% of the forest. We also predict that terra preta formation was limited in most of western Amazonia. Model results suggested that the distribution of terra preta was highly predictable based on environmental parameters. We provided targets for future archaeological surveys under the vast forest canopy and also highlighted how few of the long-term forest inventory sites in Amazonia are able to capture the effects of historical disturbance.

Species are predicted to shift their distributions upslope or poleward in response to global warming. This prediction is supported by a growing number of studies documenting species migrations in temperate systems but remains poorly tested for tropical species, and especially for tropical plant species. We analyzed changes in tree species composition in a network of 10 annually censused 1-ha plots spanning an altitudinal gradient of 70-2800 m elevation in Costa Rica. Specifically, we combined plot data with herbarium records (accessed through GBIF) to test if the plots' community temperature scores (CTS, average thermal mean of constituent species weighted by basal area) have increased over the past decade as is predicted by climate-driven species migrations. In addition, we quantified the contributions of stem growth, recruitment, and mortality to the observed patterns. Supporting our a priori hypothesis of upward species migrations, we found that there have been consistent directional shifts in the composition of the plots, such that the relative abundance of lowland species, and hence CTS, increased in 90% of plots. The rate of the observed compositional shifts corresponds to a mean thermal migration rate (TMR) of 0.0065 °C yr(-1) (95% CI = 0.0005-0.0132 °C yr(-1) ). While the overall TMR is slower than predicted based on concurrent regional warming of 0.0167 °C yr(-1) , migrations were on pace with warming in 4 of the 10 plots. The observed shifts in composition were driven primarily by mortality events (i.e., the disproportionate death of highland vs. lowland species), suggesting that individuals of many tropical tree species will not be able to tolerate future warming and thus their persistence in the face of climate change will depend on successful migrations. Unfortunately, in Costa Rica and elsewhere, land area inevitably decreases at higher elevations; hence, even species that are able to migrate successfully will face heightened risks of extinction., (© 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The vast extent of the Amazon Basin has historically restricted the study of its tree communities to the local and regional scales. Here, we provide empirical data on the commonness, rarity, and richness of lowland tree species across the entire Amazon Basin and Guiana Shield (Amazonia), collected in 1170 tree plots in all major forest types. Extrapolations suggest that Amazonia harbors roughly 16,000 tree species, of which just 227 (1.4%) account for half of all trees. Most of these are habitat specialists and only dominant in one or two regions of the basin. We discuss some implications of the finding that a small group of species--less diverse than the North American tree flora--accounts for half of the world's most diverse tree community.

Rapid 21st-century climate change may lead to large population decreases and extinction in tropical montane cloud forest species in the Andes. While prior research has focused on species migrations per se, ecotones may respond to different environmental factors than species. Even if species can migrate in response to climate change, if ecotones do not they can function as hard barriers to species migrations, making ecotone migrations central to understanding species persistence under scenarios of climate change. We examined a 42-year span of aerial photographs and high resolution satellite imagery to calculate migration rates of timberline--the grassland-forest ecotone-inside and outside of protected areas in the high Peruvian Andes. We found that timberline in protected areas was more likely to migrate upward in elevation than in areas with frequent cattle grazing and fire. However, rates in both protected (0.24 m yr(-1)) and unprotected (0.05 m yr(-1)) areas are only 0.5-2.3% of the rates needed to stay in equilibrium with projected climate by 2100. These ecotone migration rates are 12.5 to 110 times slower than the observed species migration rates within the same forest, suggesting a barrier to migration for mid- and high-elevation species. We anticipate that the ecotone will be a hard barrier to migration under future climate change, leading to drastic population and biodiversity losses in the region unless intensive management steps are taken.

The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon. With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses. As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world’s major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve ‘health’: about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.

Tree growth response across environmental gradients is fundamental to understanding species distributional ecology and forest ecosystem ecology and to predict future ecosystem services. Cross-sectional patterns of ecosystem properties with respect to climatic gradients are often used to predict ecosystem responses to global change. Across sites in the tropics, primary productivity increases with temperature, suggesting that forest ecosystems will become more productive as temperature rises. However, this trend is confounded with a shift in species composition and so may not reflect the response of in situ forests to warming. In this study, we simultaneously studied tree diameter growth across the altitudinal ranges of species within a single genus across a geographically compact temperature gradient, to separate the direct effect of temperature on tree growth from that of species compositional turnover. Using a Bayesian state space modeling framework we combined data from repeated diameter censuses and dendrometer measurements from across a 1700-m altitudinal gradient collected over six years on over 2400 trees in Weinmannia, a dominant and widespread genus of cloud forest trees in the Andes. Within species, growth showed no consistent trend with altitude, but higher-elevation species had lower growth rates than lower-elevation species, suggesting that species turnover is largely responsible for the positive correlation between productivity and temperature in tropical forests. Our results may indicate a significant difference in how low- and high-latitude forests will respond to climate change, since temperate and boreal tree species are consistently observed to have a positive relationship between growth and temperature. If our results hold for other tropical species, a positive response in ecosystem productivity to increasing temperatures in the Andes will depend on the altitudinal migration of tree species. The rapid pace of climate change, and slow observed rates of migration, suggest a slow, or even initially negative response of ecosystem productivity to warming. Finally, this study shows how the observed scale of biological organization can affect conclusions drawn from studies of ecological phenomena across environmental gradients, and calls into question the common practice in tropical ecology of lumping species at higher taxonomic levels.

Locally extensive pre-Columbian human occupation and modification occurred in the forests of the central and eastern Amazon Basin, but whether comparable impacts extend westward and into the vast terra firme (interfluvial) zones, remains unclear. We analyzed soils from 55 sites across central and western Amazonia to assess the history of human occupation. Sparse occurrences of charcoal and the lack of phytoliths from agricultural and disturbance species in the soils during pre-Columbian times indicated that human impacts on interfluvial forests were small, infrequent, and highly localized. No human artifacts or modified soils were found at any site surveyed. Riverine bluff areas also appeared less heavily occupied and disturbed than similar settings elsewhere. Our data indicate that human impacts on Amazonian forests were heterogeneous across this vast landscape.

The elevational gradient in plant and animal diversity is one of the most widely documented patterns in ecology and, although no consensus explanation exists, many hypotheses have been proposed over the past century to explain these patterns. Historically, research on elevational diversity gradients has focused almost exclusively on plant and animal taxa. As a result, we do not know whether microbes exhibit elevational gradients in diversity that parallel those observed for macroscopic taxa. This represents a key knowledge gap in ecology, especially given the ubiquity, abundance, and functional importance of microbes. Here we show that, across a montane elevational gradient in eastern Peru, bacteria living in three distinct habitats (organic soil, mineral soil, and leaf surfaces) exhibit no significant elevational gradient in diversity (r2<0.17, P>0.1 in all cases), in direct contrast to the significant diversity changes observed for plant and animal taxa across the same montane gradient (r2>0.75, P<0.001 in all cases). This finding suggests that the biogeographical patterns exhibited by bacteria are fundamentally different from those of plants and animals, highlighting the need for the development of more inclusive concepts and theories in biogeography to explain these disparities.

Estimates of the number, and preferably the identity, of species that will be threatened by land-use change and habitat loss are an invaluable tool for setting conservation priorities. Here, we use collections data and ecoregion maps to generate spatially explicit distributions for more than 40,000 vascular plant species from the Amazon basin (representing more than 80% of the estimated Amazonian plant diversity). Using the distribution maps, we then estimate the rates of habitat loss and associated extinction probabilities due to land-use changes as modeled under 2 disturbance scenarios. We predict that by 2050, human land-use practices will have reduced the habitat available to Amazonian plant species by approximately 12-24%, resulting in 5-9% of species becoming "committed to extinction," significantly fewer than other recent estimates. Contrary to previous studies, we find that the primary determinant of habitat loss and extinction risk is not the size of a species' range, but rather its location. The resulting extinction risk estimates are a valuable conservation tool because they indicate not only the total percentage of Amazonian plant species threatened with extinction but also the degree to which individual species and habitats will be affected by current and future land-use changes.

Fire is an important and arguably unnatural component of many wet Amazonian and Andean forest systems. Soil charcoal has been used to infer widespread human use of landscapes prior to European Conquest. An analysis of Amazonian soil carbon records reveals that the records have distinct spatial and temporal patterns, suggesting that either fires were only set in moderately seasonal areas of Amazonia or that strongly seasonal and aseasonal areas are undersampled. Synthesizing data from 300 charcoal records, an age-frequency diagram reveals peaks of fire apparently coinciding with some periods of very strong El Niño activity. However, the El Niño record does not always provide an accurate prediction of fire timing, and a better match is found in the record of insolation minima. After the time of European contact, fires became much scarcer within Amazonia. In both the Amazonia and the Andes, modern fire pattern is strongly allied to human activity. On the flank of the Andes, forests that have never burned are being eroded by fire spreading downslope from grasslands. Species of these same forests are being forced to migrate upslope due to warming and will encounter a firm artificial fire boundary of human activity.

Background and Aims: When ecologically important plant traits are correlated they may be said to constitute an ecological 'strategy' dimension. Through identifying these dimensions and understanding their inter-relationships we gain insight into why particular trait combinations are favoured over others and into the implications of trait differences among species. Here we investigated relationships among several traits, and thus the strategy dimensions they represented, across 2134 woody species from seven Neotropical forests., Methods: Six traits were studied: specific leaf area (SLA), the average size of leaves, seed and fruit, typical maximum plant height, and wood density (WD). Trait relationships were quantified across species at each individual forest as well as across the dataset as a whole. 'Phylogenetic' analyses were used to test for correlations among evolutionary trait-divergences and to ascertain whether interspecific relationships were biased by strong taxonomic patterning in the traits., Key Results: The interspecific and phylogenetic analyses yielded congruent results. Seed and fruit size were expected, and confirmed, to be tightly related. As expected, plant height was correlated with each of seed and fruit size, albeit weakly. Weak support was found for an expected positive relationship between leaf and fruit size. The prediction that SLA and WD would be negatively correlated was not supported. Otherwise the traits were predicted to be largely unrelated, being representatives of putatively independent strategy dimensions. This was indeed the case, although WD was consistently, negatively related to leaf size., Conclusions: The dimensions represented by SLA, seed/fruit size and leaf size were essentially independent and thus conveyed largely independent information about plant strategies. To a lesser extent the same was true for plant height and WD. Our tentative explanation for negative WD-leaf size relationships, now also known from other habitats, is that the traits are indirectly linked via plant hydraulics.

While large-scale pre-Columbian human occupation and ecological disturbance have been demonstrated close to major Amazonian waterways, less is known of sites in terra firme settings. Palaeoecological analyses of two lake districts in central and western Amazonia reveal long histories of occupation and land use. At both locations, human activity was centred on one of the lakes, while the others were either lightly used or unused. These analyses indicate that the scale of human impacts in these terra firme settings is localized and probably strongly influenced by the presence of a permanent open-water body. Evidence is found of forest clearance and cultivation of maize and manioc. These data are directly relevant to the resilience of Amazonian conservation, as they do not support the contention that all of Amazonia is a 'built landscape' and therefore a product of past human land use.

The senescence and loss of photosynthetic and support structures is a nearly universal aspect of tree life history, and can be a major source of disturbance in forest understoreys, but the ability of falling canopy debris in determining the stature and composition of understorey communities seems not to have been documented. In this study, we show that senescent fronds of the palm Iriartea deltoidea cause substantial disturbance in tropical forest sapling communities. This disturbance influences the species composition of the canopy and subcanopy by acting as an ecological filter, favouring sapling species with characteristics conducive to recovery after physical damage. The scale of this dominance suggests that falling I. deltoidea debris may be influencing sapling community structure and species composition in Amazonian rainforests over very large spatial scales.

Animals aid population growth and fitness in tropical forest communities through dispersal and negatively impact populations through seed predation. The interaction between dispersal and seed predation can produce distance- or density-dependence; powerful mechanisms for maintaining species diversity incorporated in the Janzen-Connell model. Large mammals, the highest biomass seed predators of intact Amazonian communities and at risk due to human disturbance, are potentially central to these interactions. This study tests the Janzen-Connell model and investigates the impact of mammalian seed predators on seedling recruitment and maintenance of tree diversity. Patterns of both vertebrate and invertebrate seed predation and seedling recruitment were studied in the two most abundant canopy tree species in western Amazonia (Arecaceae: Astrocaryum murumuru and Iriartea deltoidea). We specifically examined effects of both spatial and temporal variation of the highest biomass seed predator in southwest Amazonian forests, the white-lipped peccary ( Tayassu pecari), on recruitment through disturbed and undisturbed sites and through a fortuitous 12 year natural extinction and recolonization event of T. pecari. Distance-dependent seedling recruitment was found in Astrocaryum and Iriartea at both sites. However, the median distance of seedlings was approximately 1.5x farther from reproductive adults in both palms at the undisturbed site. The number of Iriartea seeds escaping predation increased 6,000% in both space and time due to the decline of T. pecari abundance. The results demonstrate that Janzen-Connell effects are stronger in intact ecosystems and tie these mechanistically to changes in seed predator abundance. This study shows that anthropogenic changes in mammal communities decrease the magnitude of Janzen-Connell effects in Amazonian forests and may result in decreases in tree diversity.

A continuous 48,000-year-long paleoecological record from Neotropical lower montane forest reveals a consistent forest presence and an ice-age cooling of approximately 5 degrees to 9 degrees C. After 30,000 years of compositional stability, a steady turnover of species marks the 8000-year-long transition from ice-age to Holocene conditions. Although the changes were directional, the rates of community change were no different during this transitional period than in the preceding 30,000-year period of community stability. The warming rate of about 1 degrees C per millennium during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition was an order of magnitude less than the projected changes for the 21st century.