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Abstract Population screening for breast cancer (BC) is currently offered in the UK for women aged 50 to 71 with the aim of reducing mortality. There is additional screening within the national programme for women identified as having a very high risk of BC. There is growing interest in further risk stratification in breast screening, which would require a whole population risk assessment and the subsequent offer of screening tailored to the individual’s risk. Some women would be offered more intensive screening than others or no screening. This might provide a better balance of screening benefits and harms for each individual than the current population age-based programme alone. The UK National Screening Committee (UK NSC) is considering using decision-analytic and other models to evaluate different risk stratification screening strategies and identify remaining gaps in evidence. This paper reports the proceedings of a UK NSC workshop where experts in the field discussed both risk prediction models, as well as decision-analytic models providing a benefit-harm analysis/economic evaluation of risk-stratified screening programmes (see Table 1). The aim of the meeting was to present and discuss the current work of experts, including some data which had not been published at the time of the meeting, to inform the UK NSC. The workshop was not intended to present a balanced evaluation of how to deliver screening in future. Areas for further work identified included methods for comparing models to assess accuracy, the optimum risk assessment tools, the digital screening infrastructure, acceptability of stratification, choice of screening test and reducing inequalities. A move to risk stratification of the whole programme would require a careful phased introduction with continuing assessment of real-world evidence during deployment.

Abstract Background Abbreviated breast MRI (FAST MRI) is being introduced into clinical practice to screen women with mammographically dense breasts or with a personal history of breast cancer. This study aimed to optimise diagnostic accuracy through the adaptation of interpretation-training. Methods A FAST MRI interpretation-training programme (short presentations and guided hands-on workstation teaching) was adapted to provide additional training during the assessment task (interpretation of an enriched dataset of 125 FAST MRI scans) by giving readers feedback about the true outcome of each scan immediately after each scan was interpreted (formative assessment). Reader interaction with the FAST MRI scans used developed software (RiViewer) that recorded reader opinions and reading times for each scan. The training programme was additionally adapted for remote e-learning delivery. Study design Prospective, blinded interpretation of an enriched dataset by multiple readers. Results 43 mammogram readers completed the training, 22 who interpreted breast MRI in their clinical role (Group 1) and 21 who did not (Group 2). Overall sensitivity was 83% (95%CI 81–84%; 1994/2408), specificity 94% (95%CI 93–94%; 7806/8338), readers’ agreement with the true outcome kappa = 0.75 (95%CI 0.74–0.77) and diagnostic odds ratio = 70.67 (95%CI 61.59–81.09). Group 1 readers showed similar sensitivity (84%) to Group 2 (82% p = 0.14), but slightly higher specificity (94% v. 93%, p = 0.001). Concordance with the ground truth increased significantly with the number of FAST MRI scans read through the formative assessment task (p = 0.002) but by differing amounts depending on whether or not a reader had previously attended FAST MRI training (interaction p = 0.02). Concordance with the ground truth was significantly associated with reading batch size (p = 0.02), tending to worsen when more than 50 scans were read per batch. Group 1 took a median of 56 seconds (range 8–47,466) to interpret each FAST MRI scan compared with 78 (14–22,830, p

Background Health economic assessments are used to determine whether the resources needed to generate net benefit from an antenatal or newborn screening programme, driven by multiple benefits and harms, are justifiable. It is not known what benefits and harms have been adopted by economic evaluations assessing these programmes and whether they omit benefits and harms considered important to relevant stakeholders. Objectives (1) To identify the benefits and harms adopted by health economic assessments in this area, and to assess how they have been measured and valued; (2) to identify attributes or relevance to stakeholders that ought to be considered in future economic assessments; and (3) to make recommendations about the benefits and harms that should be considered by these studies. Design Mixed methods combining systematic review and qualitative work. Systematic review methods We searched the published and grey literature from January 2000 to January 2021 using all major electronic databases. Economic evaluations of an antenatal or newborn screening programme in one or more Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries were considered eligible. Reporting quality was assessed using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist. We identified benefits and harms using an integrative descriptive analysis and constructed a thematic framework. Qualitative methods We conducted a meta-ethnography of the existing literature on newborn screening experiences, a secondary analysis of existing individual interviews related to antenatal or newborn screening or living with screened-for conditions, and a thematic analysis of primary data collected with stakeholders about their experiences with screening. Results The literature searches identified 52,244 articles and reports, and 336 unique studies were included. Thematic framework resulted in seven themes: (1) diagnosis of screened for condition, (2) life-years and health status adjustments, (3) treatment, (4) long-term costs, (5) overdiagnosis, (6) pregnancy loss and (7) spillover effects on family members. Diagnosis of screened-for condition (115, 47.5%), life-years and health status adjustments (90, 37.2%) and treatment (88, 36.4%) accounted for most of the benefits and harms evaluating antenatal screening. The same themes accounted for most of the benefits and harms included in studies assessing newborn screening. Long-term costs, overdiagnosis and spillover effects tended to be ignored. The wide-reaching family implications of screening were considered important to stakeholders. We observed good overlap between the thematic framework and the qualitative evidence. Limitations Dual data extraction within the systematic literature review was not feasible due to the large number of studies included. It was difficult to recruit healthcare professionals in the stakeholder’s interviews. Conclusions There is no consistency in the selection of benefits and harms used in health economic assessments in this area, suggesting that additional methods guidance is needed. Our proposed thematic framework can be used to guide the development of future health economic assessments evaluating antenatal and newborn screening programmes. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020165236. Funding This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR127489) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 25. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information. Plain language summary Every year the NHS offers pregnant women screening tests to assess the chances of them or their unborn baby having or developing a health condition. It also offers screening tests for newborn babies to look for a range of health conditions. The implementation of screening programmes and the care for women and babies require many resources and funding for the NHS, so it is important that screening programmes represent good value for money. This means that the amount of money the NHS spends on a programme is justified by the amount of benefit that the programme gives. We wanted to see whether researchers consider all the important benefits and harms associated with screening of pregnant women and newborn babies when calculating value for money. To do this, we searched all studies available in developed countries to identify what benefits and harms they considered. We also considered the views of parents and healthcare professionals on the benefits and harms screening that creates for families and wider society. We found that the identification of benefits and harms of screening is complex because screening results affect a range of people (mother–baby, parents, extended family and wider society). Researchers calculating the value for money of screening programmes have, to date, concentrated on a narrow range of benefits and harms and ignored many factors that are important to people affected by screening results. From our discussions with parents and healthcare professionals, we found that wider impacts on families are an important consideration. Only one study we looked at considered wider impacts on families. Our work also found that parent’s ability to recognise, absorb and apply new information to understand their child’s screening results or condition is important. Healthcare professionals involve in screening should consider this when supporting families of children with a condition. We have created a list for researchers to identify the benefits and harms that are important to include in future studies. We have also identified different ways researchers can value these benefits and harms, so they are incorporated into their studies in a meaningful way. Scientific summary Background National population screening programmes are implemented in the NHS on the advice of the United Kingdom National Screening Committee (UK NSC), which makes independent, evidence-based recommendations to ministers in the four countries of the UK. The recommendation to adopt a screening programme on a national scale is based on the premise that the benefits associated with the programme outweigh the harms to all relevant stakeholders. Screening committees require up-to-date evidence of these benefits and harms, as well as data demonstrating that the screening programme represents value for money. The latter is determined using a health economic assessment confirming that the additional costs to the NHS of implementing the programme and any unavoidable harms associated with it are justified by the benefits achieved, which are usually evaluated through outcome measures such as the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained metric. Although there is established guidance on best practice for economic assessments of screening programmes in general (such as economic modelling), such guidance does not address the challenge of how the full range of potentially relevant benefits and harms can be incorporated into a single assessment, nor does it specifically focus on antenatal and newborn screening. Guidance in this area, therefore, remains limited. Objectives The overall objectives of this programme of work were to: enhance knowledge about methods for the identification and valuation of benefits and harms within economic assessments of antenatal and newborn screening identify attributes of relevance to stakeholders (parents/carers, health professionals, other relevant stakeholders) that should be considered for incorporation into future economic assessments using a range of qualitative research methods make recommendations about the benefits and harms that should be considered by economic evaluations and the health economic tools that could be employed for this purpose. Methods Systematic review and development of thematic framework of benefits and harms to use in future health economic assessments A systematic review of the published and grey literature of articles and reports published after January 2000 was conducted to identify health economic assessments evaluating antenatal and newborn screening programmes in one or more of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (see Chapter 3). A protocol for this review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020165236) and published in January 2020. The Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome and Study design (PICOS) framework was used to develop the study eligibility criteria and applied to the literature searches. No language restrictions were imposed. The published literature was searched using a comprehensive selection of electronic bibliographic databases. The academic electronic database search was supplemented by manual reference searching of bibliographies, contacts with experts in the field and author searching. The list of sources of grey literature searched was informed by a recent systematic review of national policy recommendations on newborn screening. Two independent reviewers assessed the suitability for inclusion of outputs identified in the published and grey literature. A data extraction sheet was created including: (1) items from the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist, and (2) a bespoke form created by the research team to extract benefits and harms adopted by economic assessments evaluating antenatal and newborn screening programmes. The information captured in the bespoke form was used to develop a framework of benefits and harms adopted by health economic assessments using a number of themes grouped into categories based on an integrative descriptive analysis (see Chapter 4). Benefits and harms reported by articles and reports were categorised into themes and subtheme(s) according to the condition and screening type, using this thematic framework. Qualitative component We conducted a qualitative study using multiple methods to capture stakeholders’ views about the benefits and harms of antenatal and newborn screening that should be incorporated into future economic assessments. The qualitative study included: a meta-ethnography of the existing literature on newborn screening experiences (see Chapter 5) secondary analysis of existing individual interviews related to antenatal screening, newborn screening and living with screened-for conditions (see Chapter 6) thematic analysis of primary data collected with stakeholders about their experiences with antenatal and newborn screening (see Chapter 7). We conducted a meta-ethnography to better understand what was known about the experiences of newborn bloodspot screening. The experiences of antenatal screening have been extensively investigated, but newborn screening experiences remained underexplored. In our secondary analysis, the goal was to bring together, examine and interpret the findings from disparate qualitative research studies and produce a richer and broader understanding than would be possible by looking at the studies individually. We drew on a large body of existing interview data reflecting a range of screening experiences, to better understand how individuals affected by screening discussed their experiences. What emerged was a complex web of individuals, organisations, technologies and discourses that shape the screening landscape. Finally, we conducted a thematic analysis of evidence generated from primary research with three groups of stakeholders (individuals, charity and policy professionals, and healthcare providers) to understand how these groups conceptualised the benefits and harms of screening. This primary data collection amplified concepts from our meta-ethnography and secondary analysis. By using a range of qualitative methods, we identified well-informed conclusions about not only the benefits and harms of screening as understood by a variety of stakeholders, but also concepts which do not fit neatly into that framework. We present the methods and findings for each of these pieces of work in individual chapters before summarising critical findings from across components of the qualitative study (see Chapter 8). Blending benefits and harms taxonomy with qualitative evidence A mapping exercise was carried out to identify levels of overlap between the outcomes of the systematic review and the qualitative component of the study. The aim of this exercise was to identify whether health economics assessments miss the adoption of key benefits and harms when evaluating antenatal and newborn screening programmes. We mapped the qualitative data (see Chapters 5–7) onto the completed thematic framework. In some cases, the qualitative data collected did not cover subcategories of the framework, and we noted the absence. There were also themes from the qualitative data that could not be easily mapped onto the thematic framework. Stakeholder workshops A scoping review of alternative methods to value benefits and harms associated with screening scenarios was conducted. The aim of this exercise was to clarify which valuation methods should be implemented to value antenatal and newborn benefits and harms in future studies. The final selected alternatives were presented to our parent and public involvement (PPI) members to understand the feasibility of administering these valuation methods to relevant participants in future studies. This was supplemented by a separate workshop held with a broad set of stakeholders to review the findings of the VALENTIA research programme and contribute to a set of recommendations about approaches for the measurement and valuation of outcomes that should be considered by future economic assessments of antenatal and newborn screening, and to highlight areas for future methodological enquiry. The session was attended by healthcare professionals, representatives from relevant academic disciplines, representatives from charities, outreach services and support groups, and representatives from policy-making bodies. Results Systematic review and development of taxonomy of benefits and harms to use in future health economic assessments We identified 52,244 articles and reports from the searches of the published and grey literature and included 336 records in the data extraction. The majority of the records were journal articles, with almost half conducted in the USA or UK. Genetic conditions and infectious diseases were the main areas covered by the articles and reports assessing antenatal screening, while metabolic and structural conditions were the main areas covered in the evaluations of newborn screening programmes. Decision-analytical models were employed in 272 (81.0%) of the articles and reports, while 117 (43.0%) used a lifetime time horizon. Almost half of the studies conducted a cost–utility analysis reporting incremental cost per QALY values (167, 49.4%). The costing perspective adopted was not stated in 117 (33.7%) articles and reports. Reporting quality assessed using the CHEERS checklist was heterogeneous. The top five items not satisfied among the studies for antenatal screening programmes were ‘Abstract’ (160, 88.4%), ‘Time horizon’ (153, 84.5%), ‘Choice of model’ (153, 84.5%), ‘Discount rate’ (130, 71.8%) and ‘Study funding, limitation, generalisability and current knowledge’ (123, 68.0%). The top six items not satisfied among newborn screening programme studies were ‘Abstract’ (69, 83.1%), ‘Time horizon’ (67, 80.7%), ‘Study funding, limitation, generalisability and current knowledge’ (59, 71.1%), ‘Choice of model’ (55, 66.3%), ‘Discount rate’ (53, 63.9%) and ‘Setting and location’ (53, 63.9%). The top five items satisfied among the studies for both antenatal and newborn screening programmes were ‘Background and objectives’ (264, 100%), ‘Target population and subgroups’ (264, 100%), ‘Choice of health outcomes’ (263, 99.6%), ‘Measurement of effectiveness’ (260, 98.5%) and ‘Estimate resources and cost’ (247, 93.6%). We identified 86 unique descriptions of consequences associated with benefits and harms across all articles and reports. Our thematic analysis resulted in seven core themes of benefits and harms: (1) diagnosis of screened for condition, (2) life-years and health status adjustments, (3) treatment, (4) long-term costs, (5) overdiagnosis, (6) pregnancy loss and (7) spillover effects on family members. Diagnosis of screened-for condition (115, 47.5%), life-years and health status adjustments (90, 37.2%) and treatment (88, 36.4%) accounted for most of the benefits and harms evaluating antenatal screening. The same themes accounted for most of the benefits and harms included in studies assessing newborn screening. Overdiagnosis and spillover effects tended to be ignored. Only 10 out of the 242 (4.1%) antenatal screening evaluations adopted benefits and harms from all of themes 1–4, whereas only 9 out of the 95 (9.5%) newborn screening evaluations adopted benefits and harms from all of themes 1–4. Qualitative component By looking across a range of moments, outcomes and conditions across international contexts, our meta-ethnography identified that newborn screening experiences vary widely across families. We developed the concept of absorptive capacity – the ability to recognise, assimilate and apply new information – to capture the abilities of parents, and crucially also the limits of those abilities, to comprehend their child’s screening results or condition. We explain the various ways that parents experience the expansion and compression of time throughout and beyond the screening pathway, demonstrating the far-reaching implications of screening across time, as well as to wider family and kin. Our secondary analysis brought together a large, rich data set and yielded a situational map. This map demonstrates that conversations about antenatal and newborn screening involve a complicated weaving of individuals, organisations, materials and discourses. We identified elements that may (or may not) be involved in an individual’s situation and consider implicated environments that shape the landscape of screening. We generated a list of stakeholders that are central to screening conversations and uncovered temporal, spatial, economic and societal issues shaping screening experiences and debates. We conducted in-depth interviews and focus groups with people who had recently made decisions about screening, charity and professional stakeholders and healthcare providers. While different stakeholders named different benefits and harms, there was a substantial amount of overlap between groups. Consistently named benefits included screening’s ability to get information, prevent harm and provide reassurance. Consistently named harms included possible pressure to have termination of pregnancy, lack of preparation for unexpected results, emotional distress and a lack of understanding of the purposes and potential implications of screening tests. Blending benefits and harms from the thematic framework with qualitative evidence Our mapping exercise resulted in an overall good overlap between the quantitative and qualitative evidence, with elements of the qualitative evidence relevant to specific themes on the thematic framework identified. There was no suggestion that our thematic framework of benefits and harms excluded any important themes. Elements of the qualitative evidence not present in the thematic framework were also identified. For most of these elements, it was clear that they were not relevant for the development of health economic assessments (e.g. challenge of information provision to make sure choice is ‘informed’). However, the area of wide-reaching family implications of screening was considered important to our stakeholders in the qualitative work but often overlooked by developers of health economic assessments evaluating antenatal and newborn screening programmes. Stakeholder workshops In the first workshop, concerns around the practicality of the number of valuation techniques that could be applied within the online workshops led to a focus on best–worst scaling and discrete choice experiments as the primary valuation techniques. The workshops highlighted a number of factors that can inform the design of future preference elicitation studies in this area. In the second workshop, we reviewed the findings of the VALENTIA research programme and informed the final set of recommendations about approaches for the measurement and valuation of outcomes that should be considered by future economic assessments of antenatal and newborn screening, and highlighted areas for future methodological enquiry. Conclusions Benefits and harms of antenatal and newborn screening are complex and multidimensional, and they have generally been incorporated in a haphazard manner into economic evaluations. Our work suggests that there is an immediate need to provide methods guidance for researchers conducting these types of studies in future work. Our proposed framework of benefits and harms can be used as a starting point to guide the development of health economic assessments evaluating antenatal and newborn screening for specific conditions and to prevent exclusion of important harms. It is important that future economic evaluations in this area incorporate benefits and harms of spillover effects to family members, as this was considered very important to the stakeholders consulted during the study. The QALY remains a common approach for capturing the benefits and harms associated with antenatal and newborn screening programmes. This study identifies a range of benefits and harms that should be considered for inclusion within future economic assessments and provides preliminary evidence of the feasibility of applying alternative economic valuation methods in this area. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020165236. Funding This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR127489) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 25. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Background Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death globally. The aim of this overview of systematic reviews was to compare the effectiveness of different pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Methods A structured search of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects archive was conducted to find systematic reviews that reported the effect of various pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease from inception to March 2021. References of included studies were also checked. The included systematic reviews’ methodological quality was assessed using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews 2 instrument (range, 0–16). The outcomes of each included review’s meta-analysis were extracted and described narratively. Results This study analysed 95 systematic reviews, including 41 on non-pharmacological interventions and 54 on pharmacological interventions for cardiovascular health. The majority of the reviews focused on lipid-lowering interventions (n = 25) and antiplatelet medications (n = 21), followed by nutritional supplements, dietary interventions, physical activity, health promotion and other interventions. Only 1 of the 10 reviews addressing cardiovascular mortality showed a potential benefit, while the others found no effect. Antiplatelets were found to have a beneficial effect on all-cause mortality in 2 out of 12 meta-analyses and on major cardiovascular disease events in 8 out of 17 reviews. Lipid-lowering interventions showed beneficial effects on cardiovascular disease mortality, all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular disease events in varying numbers of the reviews. Glucose-lowering medications demonstrated significant benefits for major cardiovascular events, coronary heart disease events and mortality. However, the combination of dietary interventions, physical activities, nutritional supplements and polypills showed little or no significant benefit for major cardiovascular outcomes or mortality. Future work and limitations More research is needed to determine whether the effect of treatment varies depending on population characteristics. The findings of this review should be interpreted with caution because the majority of studies of non-pharmacological interventions compare primary prevention with usual care, which may include recommended pharmacological treatment in higher-risk patients (e.g. statins and/or antihypertensive medications, etc.). In addition, randomised controlled trial evidence may be better suited to the study of pharmacological interventions than dietary and lifestyle interventions. Conclusions This umbrella review captured the variability in different interventions on randomised controlled trial evidence on interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and identified areas that may benefit from further research. Specifically, this review focused on randomised controlled trial evidence on interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Researchers may use these findings as a resource to direct new intervention studies and network meta-analyses to compare the efficacy of various interventions based on these findings. Funding This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) programme as award number 17/148/05. Plain language summary Heart and blood vessel diseases are the top cause of death worldwide. This study aimed to compare the effectiveness of various drug-based and non-drug-based methods in preventing these diseases. We searched databases like Cochrane, MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects archive to find reviews about different ways to prevent heart and blood vessel diseases up until March 2021. The results showed that only 1 out of 10 reviews found a possible benefit in reducing heart-related deaths, while the other 9 found no effect. Medicines that lower blood sugar levels had a positive impact on reducing major heart events, heart disease and death. However, combining dietary changes, exercise, nutritional supplements and polypills had little or no effect on reducing heart-related events, deaths due to heart disease or deaths from all causes. This review examined the available evidence on ways to prevent heart and blood vessel diseases and identified areas where more research could be beneficial. Future studies could compare the effectiveness of different interventions using new methods and analyses.

BackgroundDiabetic eye screening (DES) represents a significant opportunity for the application of machine learning (ML) technologies, which may improve clinical and service outcomes. However, successful integration of ML into DES requires careful product development, evaluation, and implementation. Target product profiles (TPPs) summarize the requirements necessary for successful implementation so these can guide product development and evaluation. ObjectiveThis study aims to produce a TPP for an ML-automated retinal imaging analysis software (ML-ARIAS) system for use in DES in England. MethodsThis work will consist of 3 phases. Phase 1 will establish the characteristics to be addressed in the TPP. A list of candidate characteristics will be generated from the following sources: an overview of systematic reviews of diagnostic test TPPs; a systematic review of digital health TPPs; and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence’s Evidence Standards Framework for Digital Health Technologies. The list of characteristics will be refined and validated by a study advisory group (SAG) made up of representatives from key stakeholders in DES. This includes people with diabetes; health care professionals; health care managers and leaders; and regulators and policy makers. In phase 2, specifications for these characteristics will be drafted following a series of semistructured interviews with participants from these stakeholder groups. Data collected from these interviews will be analyzed using the shortlist of characteristics as a framework, after which specifications will be drafted to create a draft TPP. Following approval by the SAG, in phase 3, the draft will enter an internet-based Delphi consensus study with participants sought from the groups previously identified, as well as ML-ARIAS developers, to ensure feasibility. Participants will be invited to score characteristic and specification pairs on a scale from “definitely exclude” to “definitely include,” and suggest edits. The document will be iterated between rounds based on participants’ feedback. Feedback on the draft document will be sought from a group of ML-ARIAS developers before its final contents are agreed upon in an in-person consensus meeting. At this meeting, representatives from the stakeholder groups previously identified (minus ML-ARIAS developers, to avoid bias) will be presented with the Delphi results and feedback of the user group and asked to agree on the final contents by vote. ResultsPhase 1 was completed in November 2023. Phase 2 is underway and expected to finish in March 2024. Phase 3 is expected to be complete in July 2024. ConclusionsThe multistakeholder development of a TPP for an ML-ARIAS for use in DES in England will help developers produce tools that serve the needs of patients, health care providers, and their staff. The TPP development process will also provide methods and a template to produce similar documents in other disease areas. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)DERR1-10.2196/50568

Background The aim of the study was to investigate the potential effect of different structural interventions for preventing cardiovascular disease. Methods Medline and EMBASE were searched for peer-reviewed simulation-based studies of structural interventions for prevention of cardiovascular disease. We performed a systematic narrative synthesis. Results A total of 54 studies met the inclusion criteria. Diet, nutrition, tobacco and alcohol control and other programmes are among the policy simulation models explored. Food tax and subsidies, healthy food and lifestyles policies, palm oil tax, processed meat tax, reduction in ultra-processed foods, supplementary nutrition assistance programmes, stricter food policy and subsidised community-supported agriculture were among the diet and nutrition initiatives. Initiatives to reduce tobacco and alcohol use included a smoking ban, a national tobacco control initiative and a tax on alcohol. Others included the NHS Health Check, WHO 25 × 25 and air quality management policy. Future work and limitations There is significant heterogeneity in simulation models, making comparisons of output data impossible. While policy interventions typically include a variety of strategies, none of the models considered possible interrelationships between multiple policies or potential interactions. Research that investigates dose–response interactions between numerous modifications as well as longer-term clinical outcomes can help us better understand the potential impact of policy-level interventions. Conclusions The reviewed studies underscore the potential of structural interventions in addressing cardiovascular diseases. Notably, interventions in areas such as diet, tobacco, and alcohol control demonstrate a prospective decrease in cardiovascular incidents. However, to realize the full potential of such interventions, there is a pressing need for models that consider the interplay and cumulative impacts of multiple policies. Rigorous research into holistic and interconnected interventions will pave the way for more effective policy strategies in the future. Study registration The study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019154836. Funding This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme as award number 17/148/05. Plain language summary This study aimed to explore the potential effects of various policy changes on the prevention of heart disease. By searching two large medical databases, we identified studies that employed computer models to estimate the impact of these policies on heart disease rates. In total, 54 studies matched our criteria. These studies considered a diverse range of policy interventions. Some delved into food and nutrition, investigating aspects like unhealthy food taxes, healthy food subsidies, stricter food regulations, and nutritional assistance programs. Others examined the impact of policies targeting tobacco and alcohol, encompassing smoking bans, nationwide tobacco control measures, and alcohol taxation. Further policies assessed included routine health checkups, global health goals, and measures to enhance air quality. One significant challenge lies in the varied approaches and models each study employed, making direct comparisons difficult. Furthermore, there's a gap in understanding how these policies might influence one another, as the studies did not consider potential interactions between them. While these policies show promise in the computer models, more comprehensive research is needed to fully appreciate their combined and long-term effects on heart health in real-world scenarios. As of now, we recognize the potential of these interventions, but further studies will determine their true impact on reducing heart disease rates.

Abstract Background Screening programmes aim to identify individuals at higher risk of developing a disease or condition. While globally, there is agreement that people who attend screening should be fully informed, there is no consensus about how this should be achieved. We conducted a mixed methods study across eight different countries to understand how countries address informed choice across two screening programmes: breast cancer and fetal trisomy anomaly screening. Methods Fourteen senior level employees from organisations who produce and deliver decision aids to assist informed choice were interviewed, and their decision aids (n = 15) were evaluated using documentary analysis. Results We discovered that attempts to achieve informed choice via decision aids generate two key tensions (i) between improving informed choice and increasing uptake and (ii) between improving informed choice and comprehensibility of the information presented. Comprehensibility is fundamentally at tension with an aim of being fully informed. These tensions emerged in both the interviews and documentary analysis. Conclusion We conclude that organisations need to decide whether their overarching aim is ensuring high levels of uptake or maximising informed choice to participate in screening programmes. Consideration must then be given to all levels of development and distribution of information produced to reflect each organisation’s aim. The comprehensibility of the DA must also be considered, as this may be reduced when informed choice is prioritised.

Abstract Background Meta-analyses of test accuracy studies may provide estimates that are highly improbable in clinical practice. Tailored meta-analysis produces plausible estimates for the accuracy of a test within a specific setting by tailoring the selection of included studies compatible with a specific setting using information from the target setting. The aim of this study was to validate the tailored meta-analysis approach by comparing outcomes from tailored meta-analysis with outcomes from a setting specific test accuracy study. Methods A retrospective cohort study of primary care electronic health records provided setting-specific data on the test positive rate and disease prevalence. This was used to tailor the study selection from a review of faecal calprotectin testing for inflammatory bowel disease for meta-analysis using the binomial method and the Mahalanobis distance method. Tailored estimates were compared to estimates from a study of test accuracy in primary care using the same routine dataset. Results Tailoring resulted in the inclusion of 3/14 (binomial method) and 9/14 (Mahalanobis distance method) studies in meta-analysis. Sensitivity and specificity from tailored meta-analysis using the binomial method were 0.87 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.94) and 0.65 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.69) and 0.98 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.999) and 0.68 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.71), respectively using the Mahalanobis distance method. The corresponding estimates for the conventional meta-analysis were 0.94 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.97) and 0.67 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.76) and for the FC test accuracy study of primary care data 0.93 (95%CI 0.89 to 0.96) and 0.61 (95% CI 0.6 to 0.63) to detect IBD at a threshold of 50 μg/g. Although the binomial method produced a plausible estimate, the tailored estimates of sensitivity and specificity were not closer to the primary study estimates than the estimates from conventional meta-analysis including all 14 studies. Conclusions Tailored meta-analysis does not always produce estimates of sensitivity and specificity that lie closer to the estimates derived from a primary study in the setting in question. Potentially, tailored meta-analysis may be improved using a constrained model approach and this requires further investigation.

Abstract Background Abbreviated breast MRI (abMRI) is being introduced in breast screening trials and clinical practice, particularly for women with dense breasts. Upscaling abMRI provision requires the workforce of mammogram readers to learn to effectively interpret abMRI. The purpose of this study was to examine the diagnostic accuracy of mammogram readers to interpret abMRI after a single day of standardised small-group training and to compare diagnostic performance of mammogram readers experienced in full-protocol breast MRI (fpMRI) interpretation (Group 1) with that of those without fpMRI interpretation experience (Group 2). Methods Mammogram readers were recruited from six NHS Breast Screening Programme sites. Small-group hands-on workstation training was provided, with subsequent prospective, independent, blinded interpretation of an enriched dataset with known outcome. A simplified form of abMRI (first post-contrast subtracted images (FAST MRI), displayed as maximum-intensity projection (MIP) and subtracted slice stack) was used. Per-breast and per-lesion diagnostic accuracy analysis was undertaken, with comparison across groups, and double-reading simulation of a consecutive screening subset. Results 37 readers (Group 1: 17, Group 2: 20) completed the reading task of 125 scans (250 breasts) (total = 9250 reads). Overall sensitivity was 86% (95% confidence interval (CI) 84–87%; 1776/2072) and specificity 86% (95%CI 85–86%; 6140/7178). Group 1 showed significantly higher sensitivity (843/952; 89%; 95%CI 86–91%) and higher specificity (2957/3298; 90%; 95%CI 89–91%) than Group 2 (sensitivity = 83%; 95%CI 81–85% (933/1120) p < 0.0001; specificity = 82%; 95%CI 81–83% (3183/3880) p < 0.0001). Inter-reader agreement was higher for Group 1 (kappa = 0.73; 95%CI 0.68–0.79) than for Group 2 (kappa = 0.51; 95%CI 0.45–0.56). Specificity improved for Group 2, from the first 55 cases (81%) to the remaining 70 (83%) (p = 0.02) but not for Group 1 (90–89% p = 0.44), whereas sensitivity remained consistent for both Group 1 (88–89%) and Group 2 (83–84%). Conclusions Single-day abMRI interpretation training for mammogram readers achieved an overall diagnostic performance within benchmarks published for fpMRI but was insufficient for diagnostic accuracy of mammogram readers new to breast MRI to match that of experienced fpMRI readers. Novice MRI reader performance improved during the reading task, suggesting that additional training could further narrow this performance gap.

Background: Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The aim of the study was to guide researchers and commissioners of cardiovascular disease preventative services towards possible cost-effective interventions by reviewing published economic analyses of interventions for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, conducted for or within the UK NHS. Methods: In January 2021, electronic searches of MEDLINE and Embase were carried out to find economic evaluations of cardiovascular disease preventative services. We included fully published economic evaluations (including economic models) conducted alongside randomised controlled trials of any form of intervention that was aimed at the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, including, but not limited to, drugs, diet, physical activity and public health. Full systematic review methods were used with predetermined inclusion/exclusion criteria, data extraction and formal quality appraisal [using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist and the framework for the quality assessment of decision analytic modelling by Philips et al. (Philips Z, Ginnelly L, Sculpher M, Claxton K, Golder S, Riemsma R, et al. Review of guidelines for good practice in decision-analytic modelling in health technology assessment. Health Technol Assess 2004;8(36)]. Results: Of 4351 non-duplicate citations, eight articles met the review’s inclusion criteria. The eight articles focused on health promotion (n = 3), lipid-lowering medicine (n = 4) and blood pressure-lowering medication (n = 1). The majority of the populations in each study had at least one risk factor for cardiovascular disease or were at high risk of cardiovascular disease. For the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, all strategies were cost-effective at a threshold of £25,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, except increasing motivational interviewing in addition to other behaviour change strategies. Where the cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained was reported, interventions varied from dominant (i.e. less expensive and more effective than the comparator intervention) to £55,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Future work and limitations: We found few health economic analyses of interventions for primary cardiovascular disease prevention conducted within the last decade. Future economic assessments should be undertaken and presented in accordance with best practices so that future reviews may make clear recommendations to improve health policy. Conclusions: It is difficult to establish direct comparisons or draw firm conclusions because of the uncertainty and heterogeneity among studies. However, interventions conducted for or within the UK NHS were likely to be cost-effective in people at increased risk of cardiovascular disease when compared with usual care or no intervention. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in Health Technology Assessment. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Background: As part of our ongoing systematic review of complex interventions for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases, we have developed and evaluated automated machine-learning classifiers for title and abstract screening. The aim was to develop a high-performing algorithm comparable to human screening. Methods: We followed a three-phase process to develop and test an automated machine learning-based classifier for screening potential studies on interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. We labelled a total of 16,611 articles during the first phase of the project. In the second phase, we used the labelled articles to develop a machine learning-based classifier. After that, we examined the performance of the classifiers in correctly labelling the papers. We evaluated the performance of the five deep-learning models [i.e. parallel convolutional neural network (CNN), stacked CNN, parallel-stacked CNN, recurrent neural network (RNN) and CNN–RNN]. The models were evaluated using recall, precision and work saved over sampling at no less than 95% recall. Results: We labelled a total of 16,611 articles, of which 676 (4.0%) were tagged as ‘relevant’ and 15,935 (96%) were tagged as ‘irrelevant’. The recall ranged from 51.9% to 96.6%. The precision ranged from 64.6% to 99.1%. The work saved over sampling ranged from 8.9% to as high as 92.1%. The best-performing model was parallel CNN, yielding a 96.4% recall, as well as 99.1% precision, and a potential workload reduction of 89.9%. Future work and limitations: We used words from the title and the abstract only. More work needs to be done to look into possible changes in performance, such as adding features such as full document text. The approach might also not be able to be used for other complex systematic reviews on different topics. Conclusion: Our study shows that machine learning has the potential to significantly aid the labour-intensive screening of abstracts in systematic reviews of complex interventions. Future research should concentrate on enhancing the classifier system and determining how it can be integrated into the systematic review workflow. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in Health Technology Assessment. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

ABSTRACT Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine coverage remains incomplete, being only 15% in low-income countries. Rapid point-of-care tests predicting SARS-CoV-2 infection susceptibility in the unvaccinated may assist in risk management and vaccine prioritization. We conducted a prospective cohort study in 2,826 participants working in hospitals and Fire and Police services in England, UK, during the pandemic (ISRCTN5660922). Plasma taken at recruitment in June 2020 was tested using four lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) devices and two laboratory immunoassays detecting antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 (UK Rapid Test Consortium’s AbC-19 rapid test, OrientGene COVID IgG/IgM rapid test cassette, SureScreen COVID-19 rapid test cassette, and Biomerica COVID-19 IgG/IgM rapid test; Roche N and Euroimmun S laboratory assays). We monitored participants for microbiologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection for 200 days. We estimated associations between test results at baseline and subsequent infection, using Poisson regression models adjusted for baseline demographic risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 exposure. Positive IgG results on each of the four LFIAs were associated with lower rates of subsequent infection with adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) of 0.00 (95% confidence interval, 0.00 to 0.01), 0.03 (0.02 to 0.05), 0.07 (0.05 to 0.10), and 0.09 (0.07 to 0.12), respectively. The protective association was strongest for AbC-19 and SureScreen. The aIRR for the laboratory Roche N antibody assay at the manufacturer-recommended threshold was similar to those of the two best performing LFIAs at 0.03 (0.01 to 0.10). Lateral flow devices measuring SARS-CoV-2 IgG predicted disease risk in unvaccinated individuals over a 200-day follow-up. The association of some LFIAs with subsequent infection was similar to laboratory immunoassays. IMPORTANCE Previous research has demonstrated an association between the detection of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 following natural infection and protection from subsequent symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Lateral flow immunoassays (LFIAs) detecting anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG are a cheap, readily deployed technology that has been used on a large scale in population screening programs, yet no studies have investigated whether LFIA results are associated with subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection. In a prospective cohort study of 2,826 United Kingdom key workers, we found positivity in lateral flow test results had a strong negative association with subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection within 200 days in an unvaccinated population. Positivity on more-specific but less-sensitive tests was associated with a markedly decreased rate of disease; protection associated with testing positive using more sensitive devices detecting lower levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG was more modest. Lateral flow tests with high specificity may have a role in estimation of SARS-CoV-2 disease risk in unvaccinated populations.

Abstract Background Our knowledge of the incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is uncertain. Recent studies reported an increase in prevalence. However, they excluded a high proportion of ambiguous cases from general practice. Estimates are needed to inform health care providers who plan the provision of services for IBD patients. We aimed to estimate the IBD incidence and prevalence in UK general practice. Methods We undertook a retrospective cohort study of routine electronic health records from the IQVIA Medical Research Database covering 14 million patients. Adult patients from 2006 to 2016 were included. IBD was defined as an IBD related Read code or record of IBD specific medication. Annual incidence and 12-month period prevalence were calculated. Results The prevalence of IBD increased between 2006 and 2016 from 106.2 (95% CI 105.2–107.3) to 142.1 (95% CI 140.7–143.5) IBD cases per 10,000 patients which is a 33.8% increase. Incidence varied across the years. The incidence across the full study period was 69.5 (95% CI 68.6–70.4) per 100,000 person years. Conclusions In this large study we found higher estimates of IBD incidence and prevalence than previously reported. Estimates are highly dependent on definitions of disease and previously may have been underestimated.

Abstract Background Despite recent improvements in the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the UK, deaths from CVD are relatively high compared with other high-income countries. An estimated 7 million people in the UK are living with CVD, and the healthcare cost is approximately £11 billion annually. In more than 90% of cases, the risk of a first heart attack is thought to be related to modifiable risk factors including smoking, poor diet, lipidemia, high blood pressure, inactivity, obesity and excess alcohol consumption. The aim of the study is to synthesise evidence for the comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different interventions for the primary prevention of CVD. Methods We will systematically search databases (for example, MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), Cochrane Library) and the reference lists of previous systematic reviews for randomised controlled trials that assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of any form of intervention aimed at adult populations for the primary prevention of CVD, including but not limited to lipid lowering medications, blood pressure lowering medications, antiplatelet agents, nutritional supplements, dietary interventions, health promotion programmes, physical activity interventions or structural and policy interventions. Interventions may or may not be targeted at high-risk groups. Publications from any year will be considered for inclusion. The primary outcome will be all cause mortality. Secondary outcomes will be cardiovascular diseases related mortality, major cardiovascular events, coronary heart disease, incremental costs per quality-adjusted life years gained. If data permits, we will use network meta-analysis to compare and rank effectiveness of different interventions, and test effect modification of intervention effectiveness using subgroup analyses and meta-regression analyses. Discussion The results will be important for policymakers when making decisions between multiple possible alternative strategies to prevent CVD. Compared to results from existing multiple separate pairwise meta-analyses, this overarching synthesis of all relevant work will enhance decision-making. The findings will be crucial to inform evidence-based priorities and guidelines for policies and planning prevention strategies of CVD. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42019123940 .

Abstract Background The database used for the NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) derives participant information from primary care records. Combining predictors with FOBTs has shown to improve referral decisions and accuracy. The richer data available from GP databases could be used to complement screening referral decisions by identifying those at greatest risk of colorectal cancer. We determined the availability of data for key predictors and whether this information could be used to inform more accurate screening referral decisions. Methods An English BCSP cohort was derived using the electronic notifications received from the BCSP database to GP records. The cohort covered a period between 13th May 2009 to 17th January 2017. Completeness of variables and univariable associations were assessed. Risk prediction models were developed using Cox regression and multivariable fractional polynomials with backwards elimination. Optimism adjusted performance metrics were reported. The sensitivity and specificity of a combined approach using the negative FOBT model plus FOBT positive patients was determined using a probability equivalent to a 3% PPV NICE guidelines level. Results 292,059 participants aged 60–74 were derived for the BCSP screening cohort. A model including the screening test result had a C-statistic of 0.860, c-slope of 0.997, and R2 of 0.597. A model developed for negative screening results only had a C-statistic of 0.597, c-slope of 0.940, and R2 of 0.062. Risk predictors included in the models included; age, sex, alcohol consumption, IBS diagnosis, family history of gastrointestinal cancer, smoking status, previous negatives and whether a GP had ordered a blood test. For the combined screening approach, sensitivity increased slightly from 53.90% (FOBT only) to 58.82% but at the expense of an increased referral rate. Conclusions This research has identified several potential predictors for CRC in a BCSP population. A risk prediction model developed for BCSP FOBT negative patients was not clinically useful due to a low sensitivity and increased referral rate. The predictors identified in this study should be investigated in a refined algorithm combining the quantitative FIT result. Combining data from multiple sources enables fuller patient profiles using the primary care and screening database interface.

Introduction Demand for colonoscopies and CT colonography (CTC) is exceeding capacity in National Health Service Trusts. In many patients colonoscopies and CTCs show no significant bowel disease (SBD). Faecal Immunochemical Testing (FIT) is being introduced to prioritise patients for colonoscopies but is insufficient to identify non-SBD patients meaning colonoscopy and CTC demand remains high. The REducing Colonoscopies in patients without significant bowEl DiseasE (RECEDE) study aims to test urine volatile organic compound (VOC) analysis alongside FIT to improve detection of SBD and to reduce the number of colonoscopies and CTCs.Methods and analysis This is a multicentre, prospective diagnostic accuracy study evaluating whether stool FIT plus urine VOC compared with stool FIT alone improves detection of SBD in patients referred for colonoscopy or CTC due to persistent lower gastrointestinal symptoms. To ensure SBD is not missed, the dual test requires a high sensitivity, set at 97% with 95% CI width of 5%. Our assumption is that to achieve this sensitivity requires 200 participants with SBD. Further assuming 19% of all participants will have SBD and 55% of all participants will return both stool and urine samples we will recruit 1915 participants. The thresholds for FIT and VOC results diagnosing SBD have been pre-set. If either FIT or VOC exceeds the respective threshold, the participant will be classed as having suspected SBD. As an exploratory analysis we will be testing different thresholds. The reference comparator will be a complete colonoscopy or CTC. Secondary outcomes will look at optimising the FIT and VOC thresholds for SBD detection. An economic evaluation, using a denovo decision analytic model, will be carried out determine the costs, benefits and overall cost-effectiveness of FIT +VOC vs FIT followed by colonoscopy.Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval was obtained by Liverpool Central Research Ethics Committee (20/NW/0346).Trial registration number RECEDE is registered on Clinicaltrials.gov NCT04516785 & ISRCTN14982373. This protocol was written and published before results of the trial were available.

Objective Attendance at population-based breast cancer (mammographic) screening varies. This comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis assesses all identified patient-level factors associated with routine population breast screening attendance.Design CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Embase, Medline, OVID, PsycINFO and Web of Science were searched for studies of any design, published January 1987–June 2019, and reporting attendance in relation to at least one patient-level factor.Data synthesis Independent reviewers performed screening, data extraction and quality appraisal. OR and 95% CIs were calculated for attendance for each factor and random-effects meta-analysis was undertaken where possible.Results Of 19 776 studies, 335 were assessed at full text and 66 studies (n=22 150 922) were included. Risk of bias was generally low. In meta-analysis, increased attendance was associated with higher socioeconomic status (SES) (n=11 studies; OR 1.45, 95% CI: 1.20 to 1.75); higher income (n=5 studies; OR 1.96, 95% CI: 1.68 to 2.29); home ownership (n=3 studies; OR 2.16, 95% CI: 2.08 to 2.23); being non-immigrant (n=7 studies; OR 2.23, 95% CI: 2.00 to 2.48); being married/cohabiting (n=7 studies; OR 1.86, 95% CI: 1.58 to 2.19) and medium (vs low) level of education (n=6 studies; OR 1.24, 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.41). Women with previous false-positive results were less likely to reattend (n=6 studies; OR 0.77, 95% CI: 0.68 to 0.88). There were no differences by age group or by rural versus urban residence.Conclusions Attendance was lower in women with lower SES, those who were immigrants, non-homeowners and those with previous false-positive results. Variations in service delivery, screening programmes and study populations may influence findings. Our findings are of univariable associations. Underlying causes of lower uptake such as practical, physical, psychological or financial barriers should be investigated.Trial registration number CRD42016051597.

Abstract Background Mitochondrial trifunctional protein (MTP) and long-chain 3-hydroxyacyl-CoA dehydrogenase (LCHAD) deficiencies are rare fatty acid β-oxidation disorders. Without dietary management the conditions are life-threatening. We conducted a systematic review to investigate whether pre-symptomatic dietary management following newborn screening provides better outcomes than treatment following symptomatic detection. Methods We searched Web of Science, Medline, Pre-Medline, Embase and the Cochrane Library up to 23rd April 2018. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts and full texts for eligibility and quality appraised the studies. Data extraction was performed by one reviewer and checked by another. Results We included 13 articles out of 7483 unique records. The 13 articles reported on 11 patient groups, including 174 people with LCHAD deficiency, 18 people with MTP deficiency and 12 people with undifferentiated LCHAD/MTP deficiency. Study quality was moderate to weak in all studies. Included studies suggested fewer heart and liver problems in screen-detected patients, but inconsistent results for mortality. Follow up analyses compared long-term outcomes of (1) pre-symptomatically versus symptomatically treated patients, (2) screened versus unscreened patients, and (3) asymptomatic screen-detected, symptomatic screen-detected, and clinically diagnosed patients in each study. For follow up analyses 1 and 2, we found few statistically significant differences in the long-term outcomes. For follow up analysis 3 we found a significant difference for only one comparison, in the incidence of cardiomyopathy between the three groups. Conclusions There is some evidence that dietary management following screen-detection might be associated with a lower incidence of some LCHAD and MTP deficiency-related complications. However, the evidence base is limited by small study sizes, quality issues and risk of confounding. An internationally collaborative research effort is needed to fully examine the risks and the benefits to pre-emptive dietary management with particular attention paid to disease severity and treatment group.

Attending and receiving a result from screening can be an anxious process. Using an appropriate method to deliver screening results could improve communication and reduce negative outcomes for screening attendees. Screening programmes are increasingly communicating results by letter or telephone rather than in-person. We investigated the impact of communication methods on attendees.We systematically reviewed the literature on the communication methods used to deliver results in cancer screening programmes for women, focusing on screening attendee anxiety, understanding of results and preferences for results communication. We included qualitative and quantitative research. We searched MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Cochrane Library and Embase. Results were analysed using framework synthesis. 10,558 papers were identified with seven studies meeting the inclusion criteria.Several key ideas emerged from the synthesis including speed, accuracy of results, visual support, ability to ask questions, privacy of results location and managing expectations.Verbal communication methods (telephone and in-person) were preferred and facilitated greater understanding than written methods, although there was considerable variability in attendee preferences. Findings for anxiety were mixed, with no clear consensus on which method of communication might minimise attendee anxiety.The low number of identified studies and generally low quality evidence suggest we do not know the most appropriate communication methods in the delivery of cancer screening results. More research is needed to directly compare methods of results communication, focusing on what impact each method may have on screening attendees. Keywords: Mass screening, Communication, Mixed methods, Review, Psychology

Background: SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests are used for population surveillance and might have a future role in individual risk assessment. Lateral flow immunoassays (LFIAs) can deliver results rapidly and at scale, but have widely varying accuracy. Methods: In a laboratory setting, we performed head-to-head comparisons of four LFIAs: the Rapid Test Consortium's AbC-19TM Rapid Test, OrientGene COVID IgG/IgM Rapid Test Cassette, SureScreen COVID-19 Rapid Test Cassette, and Biomerica COVID-19 IgG/IgM Rapid Test. We analysed blood samples from 2,847 key workers and 1,995 pre-pandemic blood donors with all four devices. Findings: We observed a clear trade-off between sensitivity and specificity: the IgG band of the SureScreen device and the AbC-19TM device had higher specificities but OrientGene and Biomerica higher sensitivities. Based on analysis of pre-pandemic samples, SureScreen IgG band had the highest specificity (98.9%, 95% confidence interval 98.3 to 99.3%), which translated to the highest positive predictive value across any pre-test probability: for example, 95.1% (95% uncertainty interval 92.6, 96.8%) at 20% pre-test probability. All four devices showed higher sensitivity at higher antibody concentrations (“spectrum effects”), but the extent of this varied by device. Interpretation: The estimates of sensitivity and specificity can be used to adjust for test error rates when using these devices to estimate the prevalence of antibody. If tests were used to determine whether an individual has SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, in an example scenario in which 20% of individuals have antibodies we estimate around 5% of positive results on the most specific device would be false positives. Funding: Public Health England.

Background: Lynch syndrome is an inherited genetic condition that is associated with an increased risk of certain cancers. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence has recommended that people with colorectal cancer are tested for Lynch syndrome. Routine testing for Lynch syndrome among people with endometrial cancer is not currently conducted. Objectives: To systematically review the evidence on the test accuracy of immunohistochemistry- and microsatellite instability-based strategies to detect Lynch syndrome among people who have endometrial cancer, and the clinical effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness of testing for Lynch syndrome among people who have been diagnosed with endometrial cancer. Data sources: Searches were conducted in the following databases, from inception to August 2019 – MEDLINE ALL, EMBASE (both via Ovid), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (both via Wiley Online Library), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Health Technology Assessment Database (both via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Science Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index – Science (both via Web of Science), PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry, EconPapers (Research Papers in Economics) and School of Health and Related Research Health Utilities Database. The references of included studies and relevant systematic reviews were also checked and experts on the team were consulted. Review methods: Eligible studies included people with endometrial cancer who were tested for Lynch syndrome using immunohistochemistry- and/or microsatellite instability-based testing [with or without mutL homologue 1 (MLH1) promoter hypermethylation testing], with Lynch syndrome diagnosis being established though germline testing of normal (non-tumour) tissue for constitutional mutations in mismatch repair. The risk of bias in studies was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool, the Consolidated Health Economic Reporting Standards and the Philips’ checklist. Two reviewers independently conducted each stage of the review. A meta-analysis of test accuracy was not possible because of the number and heterogeneity of studies. A narrative summary of test accuracy results was provided, reporting test accuracy estimates and presenting forest plots. The economic model constituted a decision tree followed by Markov models for the impact of colorectal and endometrial surveillance, and aspirin prophylaxis with a lifetime time horizon. Results: The clinical effectiveness search identified 3308 studies; 38 studies of test accuracy were included. (No studies of clinical effectiveness of endometrial cancer surveillance met the inclusion criteria.) Four test accuracy studies compared microsatellite instability with immunohistochemistry. No clear difference in accuracy between immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability was observed. There was some evidence that specificity of immunohistochemistry could be improved with the addition of methylation testing. There was high concordance between immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability. The economic model indicated that all testing strategies, compared with no testing, were cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Immunohistochemistry with MLH1 promoter hypermethylation testing was the most cost-effective strategy, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £9420 per quality-adjusted life-year. The second most cost-effective strategy was immunohistochemistry testing alone, but incremental analysis produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio exceeding £130,000. Results were robust across all scenario analyses. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from £5690 to £20,740; only removing the benefits of colorectal cancer surveillance produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in excess of the £20,000 willingness-to-pay threshold. A sensitivity analysis identified the main cost drivers of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio as percentage of relatives accepting counselling and prevalence of Lynch syndrome in the population. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, a 0.93 probability that immunohistochemistry with MLH1 promoter hypermethylation testing is cost-effective, compared with no testing. Limitations: The systematic review excluded grey literature, studies written in non-English languages and studies for which the reference standard could not be established. Studies were included when Lynch syndrome was diagnosed by genetic confirmation of constitutional variants in the four mismatch repair genes (i.e. MLH1, mutS homologue 2, mutS homologue 6 and postmeiotic segregation increased 2). Variants of uncertain significance were reported as per the studies. There were limitations in the economic model around uncertainty in the model parameters and a lack of modelling of the potential harms of gynaecological surveillance and specific pathway modelling of genetic testing for somatic mismatch repair mutations. Conclusion: The economic model suggests that testing women with endometrial cancer for Lynch syndrome is cost-effective, but that results should be treated with caution because of uncertain model inputs. Future work: Randomised controlled trials could provide evidence on the effect of earlier intervention on outcomes and the balance of benefits and harms of gynaecological cancer surveillance. Follow-up of negative cases through disease registers could be used to determine false negative cases. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019147185. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 42. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Objective To systemically review and critically appraise published studies of the association between vitamin D supplementation or serum vitamin D level and susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19, including clinical course, morbidity and mortality outcomes.Design Systematic review.Data sources MEDLINE (OVID), Embase (OVID), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MedRxiv and BioRxiv preprint databases. COVID-19 databases of the WHO, Cochrane, CEBM Oxford and Bern University up to 10 June 2020.Study selection Studies that assessed vitamin D supplementation and/or low serum vitamin D in patients acutely ill with, or at risk of, severe betacoronavirus infection (SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2).Data extraction Two authors independently extracted data using a predefined data extraction form and assessed risk of bias using the Downs and Black Quality Assessment Checklist.Results Searches elicited 449 papers, 59 studies were eligible full-text assessment and 4 met the eligibility criteria of this review. The four studies were narratively synthesised and included (1) a cross-sectional study (n=107) suggesting an inverse association between serum vitamin D and SARS-CoV-2; (2) a retrospective cohort study (348 598 participants, 449 cases) in which univariable analysis showed that vitamin D protects against COVID-19; (3) an ecological country level study demonstrating a negative correlation between vitamin D and COVID-19 case numbers and mortality; and (4) a case–control survey (n=1486) showing cases with confirmed/probable COVID-19 reported lower vitamin D supplementation. All studies were at high/unclear risk of bias.Conclusion There is no robust evidence of a negative association between vitamin D and COVID-19. No relevant randomised controlled trials were identified and there is no robust peer-reviewed published evidence of association between vitamin D levels and severity of symptoms or mortality due to COVID-19. Guideline producers should acknowledge that benefits of vitamin D supplementation in COVID-19 are as yet unproven despite increasing interest.

Background: Long-chain 3-hydroxyacyl-CoA dehydrogenase (LCHAD) and mitochondrial trifunctional protein (MTP) deficiencies are rare autosomal recessive fatty acid β-oxidation disorders. Their clinical presentations are variable, and premature death is common. They are included in newborn blood spot screening programs in many countries around the world. The current process of screening, through the measurement of acylcarnitines (a metabolic by-product) in dried blood spots with tandem mass spectrometry, is subject to uncertainty regarding test accuracy.Methods: We conducted a systematic review of literature published up to 19th June 2018. We included studies that investigated newborn screening for LCHAD or MTP deficiencies by tandem mass spectrometry of acylcarnitines in dried blood spots. The reference standards were urine organic acids, blood acylcarnitine profiles, enzyme analysis in cultured fibroblasts or lymphocytes, mutation analysis, or at least 10-year follow-up. The outcomes of interest were sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). Assessment of titles, abstracts, and full-text papers and quality appraisal were carried out independently by two reviewers. One reviewer extracted study data. This was checked by a second reviewer.Results: Ten studies provided data on test accuracy. LCHAD or MTP deficiencies were identified in 23 babies. No cases of LCHAD/MTP deficiencies were identified in four studies. PPV ranged from 0% (zero true positives and 28 false positives from 276,565 babies screened) to 100% (13 true positives and zero false positives from 2,037,824 babies screened). Sensitivity, specificity, and NPV could not be calculated as there was no systematic follow-up of babies who screened negative.Conclusions: Test accuracy estimates of screening for LCHAD and MTP deficiencies with tandem mass spectrometry measurement of acylcarnitines in dried blood were variable in terms of PPVs. Screening methods (including markers and thresholds) varied between studies, and sensitivity, specificity, and NPVs are unknown.

Objective To estimate the test accuracy of faecal calprotectin (FC) for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in the primary care setting using routine electronic health records.Design Retrospective cohort test accuracy study.Setting UK primary care.Participants 5970 patients (≥18 years) without a previous IBD diagnosis and with a first FC test between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2016. We excluded multiple tests and tests without numeric results in units of µg/g.Intervention FC testing for the diagnosis of IBD. Disease status was confirmed by a recorded diagnostic code and/or a drug code of an IBD-specific medication at three time points after the FC test date.Main outcome measures Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for the differential of IBD versus non-IBD and IBD versus irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) at the 50 and 100 µg/g thresholds.Results 5970 patients met the inclusion criteria and had at least 6 months of follow-up data after FC testing. 1897 had an IBS diagnosis, 208 had an IBD diagnosis, 31 had a colorectal cancer diagnosis, 80 had more than one diagnosis and 3754 had no subsequent diagnosis. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 92.9% (88.6% to 95.6%), 61.5% (60.2% to 62.7%), 8.1% (7.1% to 9.2%) and 99.6% (99.3% to 99.7%), respectively, at the threshold of 50 µg/g. Raising the threshold to 100 µg/g missed less than 7% additional IBD cases. Longer follow-up had no effect on test accuracy. Overall, uncertainty was greater for specificity than sensitivity. General practitioners’ (GPs’) referral decisions did not follow the anticipated clinical pathways in national guidance.Conclusions GPs can be confident in excluding IBD on the basis of a negative FC test in a population with low pretest risk but should interpret a positive test with caution. The applicability of national guidance to general practice needs to be improved.

Objectives To assess the accuracy and completeness of information provided by websites selling home self-sampling and testing kits for COVID-19.Design Cross-sectional observational study.Setting All websites (n=27) selling direct to user home self-sampling and testing kits for COVID-19 (41 tests) in the UK (39 tests) and USA (two tests) identified by a website search on 23 May 2020.Main outcome measures Thirteen predefined basic information items to communicate to a user, including who should be tested, when and how testing should be done, test accuracy, and interpretation of results.Results Many websites did not provide the name or manufacturer of the test (32/41; 78%), when to use the test (10/41; 24%), test accuracy (12/41; 29%), and how to interpret results (21/41; 51%). Sensitivity and specificity were the most commonly reported test accuracy measures (either reported for 27/41 [66%] tests): we could only link these figures to manufacturers’ documents or publications for four (10%) tests. Predictive values, most relevant to users, were rarely reported (five [12%] tests reported positive predictive values). For molecular virus tests, 9/23 (39%) websites explained that test positives should self-isolate, and 8/23 (35%) explained that test negatives may still have the disease. For antibody tests, 12/18 (67%) websites explained that testing positive does not necessarily infer immunity from future infection. Seven (39%) websites selling antibody tests claimed the test had a CE mark, when they were for a different intended use (venous blood rather than finger-prick samples).Conclusions At the point of online purchase of home self-sampling COVID-19 tests, users in the UK are provided with incomplete, and, in some cases, misleading information on test accuracy, intended use, and test interpretation. Best practice guidance for communication about tests to the public should be developed and enforced for online sales of COVID-19 tests.

Objective To summarise studies describing incidence of sudden cardiac death in a general population of young individuals to inform screening policy.Design Systematic review.Data sources Database searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane library (all inception to current) on 29 April 2019 (updated 16 November 2019), and forward/backward citation tracking of eligible studies.Study eligibility criteria All studies that reported incidence of sudden cardiac death in young individuals (12–39 years) in a general population, with no restriction on language or date. Planned subgroups were incidence by age, sex, race and athletic status (including military personnel).Data extraction Two reviewers independently assessed study eligibility, extracted study data and assessed risk of bias using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal checklist for prevalence studies.Analysis Reported incidence of sudden cardiac death in the young per 100 000 person-years.Results 38 studies that reported incidence across five continents. We identified substantial heterogeneity in population, sudden cardiac death definition, and case ascertainment methods, precluding meta-analysis. Median reported follow-up years was 6.97 million (IQR 2.34 million–23.70 million) and number of sudden cardiac death cases was 64 (IQR 40–251). In the general population, the median of reported incidence was 1.7 sudden cardiac death per 100 000 person-years (IQR 1.3–2.6, range 0.75–11.9). Most studies (n=14, 54%) reported an incidence between one and two cases per 100 000 person-years. Incidence was higher in males and older individuals.Conclusions This systematic review identified variability in the reported incidence of sudden cardiac death in the young across studies. Most studies reported an incidence between one and two cases per 100 000 person-years.PROSPERO registration number CRD42019120563.

Background: In their landmark report on the “Principles and Practice of Screening for Disease” (1968), Wilson and Jungner noted that the practice of screening is just as important for securing beneficial outcomes and avoiding harms as the formulation of principles. Many jurisdictions have since established various kinds of “screening governance organizations” to provide oversight of screening practice. Yet to date there has been relatively little reflection on the nature and organization of screening governance itself, or on how different governance arrangements affect the way screening is implemented and perceived and the balance of benefits and harms it delivers. Methods: An international expert policy workshop convened by Sturdy, Miller and Hogarth. Results: While effective governance is essential to promote beneficial screening practices and avoid attendant harms, screening governance organizations face enduring challenges. These challenges are social and ethical as much as technical. Evidence-based adjudication of the benefits and harms of population screening must take account of factors that inform the production and interpretation of evidence, including the divergent professional, financial and personal commitments of stakeholders. Similarly, when planning and overseeing organized screening programs, screening governance organizations must persuade or compel multiple stakeholders to work together to a common end. Screening governance organizations in different jurisdictions vary widely in how they are constituted, how they relate to other interested organizations and actors, and what powers and authority they wield. Yet we know little about how these differences affect the way screening is implemented, and with what consequences. Conclusions: Systematic research into how screening governance is organized in different jurisdictions would facilitate policy learning to address enduring challenges. Even without such research, informal exchange and sharing of experiences between screening governance organizations can deliver invaluable insights into the social as well as the technical aspects of governance.

Background: Sore throat is a common condition caused by an infection of the airway. Most cases are of a viral nature; however, a number of these infections may be caused by the group A Streptococcus bacterium. Most viral and bacterial sore throat infections resolve spontaneously within a few weeks. Point-of-care testing in primary care has been recognised as an emerging technology for aiding targeted antibiotic prescribing for sore throat in cases that do not spontaneously resolve. Objective: Systematically review the evidence for 21 point-of-care tests for detecting group A Streptococcus bacteria and develop a de novo economic model to compare the cost-effectiveness of point-of-care tests alongside clinical scoring tools with the cost-effectiveness of clinical scoring tools alone for patients managed in primary care and hospital settings. Data sources: Multiple electronic databases were searched from inception to March 2019. The following databases were searched in November and December 2018 and searches were updated in March 2019: MEDLINE [via OvidSP (Health First, Rockledge, FL, USA)], MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations (via OvidSP), MEDLINE Epub Ahead of Print (via OvidSP), MEDLINE Daily Update (via OvidSP), EMBASE (via OvidSP), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews [via Wiley Online Library (John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, USA)], Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (via Wiley Online Library), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) (via Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Health Technology Assessment database (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Science Citation Index and Conference Proceedings [via the Web of Science™ (Clarivate Analytics, Philadelphia, PA, USA)] and the PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination). Review methods: Eligible studies included those of people aged ≥ 5 years presenting with sore throat symptoms, studies comparing point-of-care testing with antibiotic-prescribing decisions, studies of test accuracy and studies of cost-effectiveness. Quality assessment of eligible studies was undertaken. Meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity was carried out for tests with sufficient data. A decision tree model estimated costs and quality-adjusted life-years from an NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. Results: The searches identified 38 studies of clinical effectiveness and three studies of cost-effectiveness. Twenty-six full-text articles and abstracts reported on the test accuracy of point-of-care tests and/or clinical scores with biological culture as a reference standard. In the population of interest (patients with Centor/McIsaac scores of ≥ 3 points or FeverPAIN scores of ≥ 4 points), point estimates were 0.829 to 0.946 for sensitivity and 0.849 to 0.991 for specificity. There was considerable heterogeneity, even for studies using the same point-of-care test, suggesting that is unlikely that any single study will have accurately captured a test’s true performance. There is some randomised controlled trial evidence to suggest that the use of rapid antigen detection tests may help to reduce antibiotic-prescribing rates. Sensitivity and specificity estimates for each test in each age group and care setting combination were obtained using meta-analyses where appropriate. Any apparent differences in test accuracy may not be attributable to the tests, and may have been caused by known differences in the studies, latent characteristics or chance. Fourteen of the 21 tests reviewed were included in the economic modelling, and these tests were not cost-effective within the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence’s cost-effectiveness thresholds. Uncertainties in the cost-effectiveness estimates included model parameter inputs and assumptions that increase the cost of testing, and the penalty for antibiotic overprescriptions. Limitations: No information was identified for the elderly population or pharmacy setting. It was not possible to identify which test is the most accurate owing to the paucity of evidence. Conclusions: The systematic review and the cost-effectiveness models identified uncertainties around the adoption of point-of-care tests in primary and secondary care settings. Although sensitivity and specificity estimates are promising, we have little information to establish the most accurate point-of-care test. Further research is needed to understand the test accuracy of point-of-care tests in the proposed NHS pathway and in comparable settings and patient groups. Study registration: The protocol of the review is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018118653. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 31. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Abstract Background The presence of circulating cell-free DNA from tumours in blood (ctDNA) is of major importance to those interested in early cancer detection, as well as to those wishing to monitor tumour progression or diagnose the presence of activating mutations to guide treatment. In 2014, the UK Early Cancer Detection Consortium undertook a systematic mapping review of the literature to identify blood-based biomarkers with potential for the development of a non-invasive blood test for cancer screening, and which identified this as a major area of interest. This review builds on the mapping review to expand the ctDNA dataset to examine the best options for the detection of multiple cancer types. Methods The original mapping review was based on comprehensive searches of the electronic databases Medline, Embase, CINAHL, the Cochrane library, and Biosis to obtain relevant literature on blood-based biomarkers for cancer detection in humans (PROSPERO no. CRD42014010827). The abstracts for each paper were reviewed to determine whether validation data were reported, and then examined in full. Publications concentrating on monitoring of disease burden or mutations were excluded. Results The search identified 94 ctDNA studies meeting the criteria for review. All but 5 studies examined one cancer type, with breast, colorectal and lung cancers representing 60% of studies. The size and design of the studies varied widely. Controls were included in 77% of publications. The largest study included 640 patients, but the median study size was 65 cases and 35 controls, and the bulk of studies (71%) included less than 100 patients. Studies either estimated cfDNA levels non-specifically or tested for cancer-specific mutations or methylation changes (the majority using PCR-based methods). Conclusion We have systematically reviewed ctDNA blood biomarkers for the early detection of cancer. Pre-analytical, analytical, and post-analytical considerations were identified which need to be addressed before such biomarkers enter clinical practice. The value of small studies with no comparison between methods, or even the inclusion of controls is highly questionable, and larger validation studies will be required before such methods can be considered for early cancer detection.

Abstract Background Tyrosinemia type 1 (TYR1) is a rare autosomal recessive disorder of amino acid metabolism that is fatal without treatment. With medication (nitisinone) and dietary restrictions outcomes are improved. We conducted a systematic review to investigate if treatment with nitisinone following screening provides better long-term outcomes than treatment with nitisinone following symptomatic detection. Methods We searched Web of Science, Medline, Pre-Medline, and Embase up to 23rd September 2016 for journal articles comparing clinical outcomes of TYR1 patients receiving earlier versus later nitisinone treatment. Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts, assessed full texts, and appraised study quality. Data extraction was performed by a single reviewer and checked by a second. Results We included seven articles out of 470 unique records identified by our search. The seven articles included four studies (three cohort studies and one cross-sectional study). Study sample sizes ranged from 17 to 148. There is consistent evidence that nitisinone is an effective treatment for TYR1, and some evidence that earlier treatment with nitisinone and dietary restrictions within the first one or 2 months of life is associated with reduced need for liver transplantation, lower rates of renal dysfunction, fewer neurological crises, and fewer, shorter hospital admissions compared to later treatment. However, study quality was moderate to weak, with high risk of confounding and applicability concerns to the screening context. We conducted post hoc analyses to address these issues. Results suggested an association between earlier treatment and fewer liver transplants (earlier treatment: 0% of 10–24 patients; later treatment: 25–60% of 4–15 patients), but no impact on neurological crises. We found no effect of treatment timing on mortality in either the primary or post hoc analyses. Post hoc analyses of other health-related outcomes were not possible because of sample size or reporting. Conclusions There is some evidence from observational studies that earlier treatment with nitisinone might be beneficial but this is subject to bias. The applicability of our findings to the screening context or clinical practice is limited as not all early-treated patients were identified by screening and late-treated groups included patients born prior to the availability of nitisinone.

Abstract Background Adverse events from intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP) are poorly documented yet essential to inform clinical practice for neonatal group B Streptococcus (GBS) disease prevention. In this systematic review, we appraised and synthesised the evidence on the adverse events of IAP in the mother and/or her child. Methods We searched MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, Cochrane, and Science Citation Index from date of inception until October 16th 2016. Reference lists of included studies and relevant systematic reviews were hand-searched. We included primary studies in English that reported any adverse events from intrapartum antibiotics for any prophylactic purpose compared to controls. The search was not restricted to prophylaxis for GBS but excluded women with symptoms of infection or undergoing caesarean section. Two reviewers assessed the methodological quality of studies, using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool, and the Risk of Bias Assessment Tool for Nonrandomised Studies. Results were synthesised narratively and displayed in text and tables. Results From 2364 unique records, 30 studies were included. Despite a wide range of adverse events reported in 17 observational studies and 13 randomised controlled trials (RCTs), the evidence was inconsistent and at high risk of bias. Only one RCT investigated the long-term effects of IAP reporting potentially serious outcomes such as cerebral palsy; however, it had limited applicability and unclear biological plausibility. Seven observational studies showed that IAP for maternal GBS colonisation alters the infant microbiome. However, study populations were not followed through to clinical outcomes, therefore clinical significance is unknown. There was also observational evidence for increased antimicrobial resistance, however studies were at high or unclear risk of bias. Conclusions The evidence base to determine the frequency of adverse events from intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis for neonatal GBS disease prevention is limited. As RCTs may not be possible, large, better quality, and longitudinal observational studies across countries with widespread IAP could fill this gap. Trial registration CRD42016037195 .

Introduction One of the main harms from breast cancer screening is the anxiety caused by false positive results. Various factors may be associated with false-positive anxiety. One modifiable factor may be the method of communication used to deliver results. The aim of this study is to measure the effect on anxiety of receiving benign biopsy results in-person or by telephone.Methods and analysis This is a multi-centre cluster randomised crossover trial in the English National Health Service Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP) involving repeated survey measures at four time points. Participants will be women of screening age who have a biopsy following a suspicious mammography result, who ultimately receive a benign or normal (B1) result. Centres will trial both telephone and in-person results on a month-by-month basis, being randomised to which communication method will be trialled first. Women will be blinded to the method of communication they will receive. The analysis will compare women who have received telephone results and women who have received in-person results. The primary outcome measure will be anxiety (measured by the Psychological Consequences Questionnaire) after receiving results, while controlling for baseline anxiety. Secondary outcome measures will include anxiety at 3 and 6 months post-results, understanding of results and patient preferences for how results are communicated. Qualitative telephone interviews will also be conducted to further explore women’s reasons for communication preferences. Qualitative and quantitative data will be integrated after initial separate analysis using the pillar integration process.Ethics and dissemination This study has been approved by the Public Health England Breast Screening Programme Research Advisory Committee, (BSPRAC_0013, ODR1718_040) and the National Health Service Health Research Authority (HRA) West Midlands—Coventry & Warwickshire Research Ethics Committee (17/WM/0313). The findings from this study will be disseminated to key stakeholders within the NHSBSP and via academic publications.Trial registration number ISRCTN36997684Trial sponsor This research is part of a PhD award and is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council Doctoral Training Centre at the University of Warwick and Public Health England. The sponsor for this research is Jane Prewett (sponsorship@warwick.ac.uk).

Abstract Background The most rigorous method for evaluating the effectiveness of diagnostic tests is through randomised trials that compare test-treatment interventions: complex interventions comprising episodes of testing, decision-making and treatment. The multi-staged nature of these interventions, combined with the need to relay diagnostic decision-making and treatment planning, has led researchers to hypothesise that test-treatment strategies may be very challenging to document. However, no reviews have yet examined the reporting quality of interventions used in test-treatment RCTs. In this study we evaluate the completeness of intervention descriptions in a systematically identified cohort of test-treatment RCTs. Methods We ascertained all test-treatment RCTs published 2004–2007, indexed in CENTRAL. Included trials randomized patients to diagnostic tests and measured patient outcomes after treatment. Two raters examined the completeness of test-treatment intervention descriptions in four components: 1) the test, 2) diagnostic decision-making, 3) management decision-making, 4) treatments. Results One hundred and three trials compared 105 control with 119 experimental interventions, most commonly in cardiovascular medicine (35, 34%), obstetrics and gynecology (17%), gastroenterology (14%) or orthopedics (10%). A broad range of tests were evaluated, including imaging (50, 42%), biochemical assays (21%) and clinical assessment (12%). Only five (5%) trials detailed all four components of experimental and control interventions, none of which also provided a complete care pathway diagram. Experimental arms were missing descriptions of tests, diagnostic-decision making, management planning and treatments (36%, 51%, 55% and 79% of trials respectively); control arms were missing the same details in 61%, 66%, 67% and 84% of trials. Conclusion Reporting of test-treatment interventions is very poor, inadequate for understanding the results of these trials, and for comparing or translating results into clinical practice. Reporting needs to improve, with greater emphasis on describing the decision-making components of care pathways in both pragmatic and explanatory trials. Please see the companion paper to this article: http://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12874-016-0287-z .

Background: The Early Cancer Detection Consortium is developing a blood-test to screen the general population for early identification of cancer, and has therefore conducted a systematic mapping review to identify blood-based biomarkers that could be used for early identification of cancer. Methods: A mapping review with a systematic approach was performed to identify biomarkers and establish their state of development. Comprehensive searches of electronic databases Medline, Embase, CINAHL, the Cochrane library and Biosis were conducted in May 2014 to obtain relevant literature on blood-based biomarkers for cancer detection in humans. Screening of retrieved titles and abstracts was performed using an iterative sifting process known as “data mining”. All blood based biomarkers, their relevant properties and characteristics, and their corresponding references were entered into an inclusive database for further scrutiny by the Consortium, and subsequent selection of biomarkers for rapid review. This systematic review is registered with PROSPERO (no. CRD42014010827). Findings: The searches retrieved 19,724 records after duplicate removal. The data mining approach retrieved 3990 records (i.e. 20% of the original 19,724), which were considered for inclusion. A list of 814 potential blood-based biomarkers was generated from included studies. Clinical experts scrutinised the list to identify miss-classified and duplicate markers, also volunteering the names of biomarkers that may have been missed: no new markers were identified as a result. This resulted in a final list of 788 biomarkers. Interpretation: This study is the first to systematically and comprehensively map blood biomarkers for early detection of cancer. Use of this rapid systematic mapping approach found a broad range of relevant biomarkers allowing an evidence-based approach to identification of promising biomarkers for development of a blood-based cancer screening test in the general population.

Early diagnosis of the rare and life-threatening uterine leiomyosarcoma (LMS) is essential for prompt treatment, to improve survival. Preoperative distinction of LMS from benign leiomyoma remains a challenge, and thus LMS is often diagnosed post-operatively. This retrospective observational study evaluated the predictive diagnostic utility of 32 preoperative variables in 190 women who underwent a hysterectomy, with a postoperative diagnosis of leiomyoma (n = 159) or LMS (n = 31), at the Liverpool Women’s National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust, between 2010 and 2019. A total of 7 preoperative variables were associated with increased odds of LMS, including postmenopausal status (p < 0.001, OR 3.08), symptoms of pressure (p = 0.002, OR 2.7), postmenopausal bleeding (p = 0.001, OR 5.01), neutrophil count ≥7.5 × 109/L (p < 0.001, OR 5.72), haemoglobin level p = 0.037, OR 2.22), endometrial biopsy results of cellular atypia or neoplasia (p = 0.001, OR 9.6), and a mass size of ≥10 cm on radiological imaging (p < 0.0001, OR 8.52). This study has identified readily available and easily identifiable preoperative clinical variables that can be implemented into clinical practice to discern those with high risk of LMS, for further specialist investigations in women presenting with symptoms of leiomyoma.

Background: Gastroenteritis is a common, transient disorder usually caused by infection and characterised by the acute onset of diarrhoea. Multiplex gastrointestinal pathogen panel (GPP) tests simultaneously identify common bacterial, viral and parasitic pathogens using molecular testing. By providing test results more rapidly than conventional testing methods, GPP tests might positively influence the treatment and management of patients presenting in hospital or in the community. Objective: To systematically review the evidence for GPP tests [xTAG® (Luminex, Toronto, ON, Canada), FilmArray (BioFire Diagnostics, Salt Lake City, UT, USA) and Faecal Pathogens B (AusDiagnostics, Beaconsfield, NSW, Australia)] and to develop a de novo economic model to compare the cost-effectiveness of GPP tests with conventional testing in England and Wales. Data sources: Multiple electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and the Cochrane Database were searched from inception to January 2016 (with supplementary searches of other online resources). Review methods: Eligible studies included patients with acute diarrhoea; comparing GPP tests with standard microbiology techniques; and patient, management, test accuracy or cost-effectiveness outcomes. Quality assessment of eligible studies used tailored Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2, Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards and Philips checklists. The meta-analysis included positive and negative agreement estimated for each pathogen. A de novo decision tree model compared patients managed with GPP testing or comparable coverage with patients managed using conventional tests, within the Public Health England pathway. Economic models included hospital and community management of patients with suspected gastroenteritis. The model estimated costs (in 2014/15 prices) and quality-adjusted life-year losses from a NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. Results: Twenty-three studies informed the review of clinical evidence (17 xTAG, four FilmArray, two xTAG and FilmArray, 0 Faecal Pathogens B). No study provided an adequate reference standard with which to compare the test accuracy of GPP with conventional tests. A meta-analysis (of 10 studies) found considerable heterogeneity; however, GPP testing produces a greater number of pathogen-positive findings than conventional testing. It is unclear whether or not these additional ‘positives’ are clinically important. The review identified no robust evidence to inform consequent clinical management of patients. There is considerable uncertainty about the cost-effectiveness of GPP panels used to test for suspected infectious gastroenteritis in hospital and community settings. Uncertainties in the model include length of stay, assumptions about false-positive findings and the costs of tests. Although there is potential for cost-effectiveness in both settings, key modelling assumptions need to be verified and model findings remain tentative. Limitations: No test–treat trials were retrieved. The economic model reflects one pattern of care, which will vary across the NHS. Conclusions: The systematic review and cost-effectiveness model identify uncertainties about the adoption of GPP tests within the NHS. GPP testing will generally correctly identify pathogens identified by conventional testing; however, these tests also generate considerable additional positive results of uncertain clinical importance. Future work: An independent reference standard may not exist to evaluate alternative approaches to testing. A test–treat trial might ascertain whether or not additional GPP ‘positives’ are clinically important or result in overdiagnoses, whether or not earlier diagnosis leads to earlier discharge in patients and what the health consequences of earlier intervention are. Future work might also consider the public health impact of different testing treatments, as test results form the basis for public health surveillance. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD2016033320. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

OBJECTIVE:Multiplex gastrointestinal pathogen panel (GPP) tests simultaneously identify bacterial, viral and parasitic pathogens from the stool samples of patients with suspected infectious gastroenteritis presenting in hospital or the community. We undertook a systematic review to compare the accuracy of GPP tests with standard microbiology techniques. REVIEW METHODS:Searches in Medline, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane library were undertaken from inception to January 2016. Eligible studies compared GPP tests with standard microbiology techniques in patients with suspected gastroenteritis. Quality assessment of included studies used tailored QUADAS-2. In the absence of a reference standard we analysed test performance taking GPP tests and standard microbiology techniques in turn as the benchmark test, using random effects meta-analysis of proportions. RESULTS:No study provided an adequate reference standard with which to compare the test accuracy of GPP and conventional tests. Ten studies informed a meta-analysis of positive and negative agreement. Positive agreement across all pathogens was 0.93 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.96) when conventional methods were the benchmark and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.77) when GPP provided the benchmark. Negative agreement was high in both instances due to the high proportion of negative cases. GPP testing produced a greater number of pathogen-positive findings than conventional testing. It is unclear whether these additional 'positives' are clinically important. CONCLUSIONS:GPP testing has the potential to simplify testing and accelerate reporting when compared to conventional microbiology methods. However the impact of GPP testing upon the management, treatment and outcome of patients is poorly understood and further studies are needed to evaluate the health economic impact of GPP testing compared with standard methods. The review protocol is registered with PROSPERO as CRD42016033320.

Background and objectives: Systematic reviews and economic modelling of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of therapeutic monitoring of tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) inhibitors [using LISA-TRACKER® enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kits (Theradiag, Marne La Vallee, France, or Alpha Laboratories, Heriot, UK), TNF-α-Blocker ELISA kits (Immundiagnostik AG, Bensheim, Germany) and Promonitor® ELISA kits (Proteomika, Progenika Biopharma, Bizkaia, Spain)] versus standard care for Crohn’s disease (CD). Methods: Multiple electronic databases were searched from inception to December 2014 in order to identify primary studies and meta-analyses. Population: Patients with moderate to severe active CD treated with infliximab (IFX) (Remicade®, Merck Sharp & Dohme Ltd, Kenilworth, NJ, USA) or adalimumab (ADA) (Humira®, AbbVie Inc., North Chicago, IL, USA). Intervention: Monitoring of serum anti-TNF-α (IFX or ADA) and/or of anti-drug antibody levels using test assays with a test–treatment algorithm. Comparator: Standard care. Outcomes: Any patient-related outcome, test agreement and cost-effectiveness estimates. The quality assessments used recognised checklists (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2, Cochrane, Philips and Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards). Evidence was synthesised using narrative review and meta-analysis. A Markov model was built in TreeAge Pro 2013 (TreeAge Software, Inc., Williamstown, MA, USA). The model had a 4-week cycle and a 10-year time horizon, adopted a NHS and Personal Social Services perspective and used a linked evidence approach. Costs were adjusted to 2013/14 prices and discounted at 3.5%. Results: We included 68 out of 2434 and 4 out of 2466 studies for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness reviews, respectively. Twenty-three studies comparing test methods were identified. Evidence on test concordance was sparse and contradictory, offering scant data for a linked evidence approach. Three studies [two randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and one retrospective observational study] investigated outcomes following implementation of a test algorithm. None used the specified commercial ELISA immunoassay test kits. Neither of the two RCTs demonstrated clinical benefit of a test–treatment regimen. A meta-analysis of 31 studies to estimate test accuracy for predicting clinical status indicated that 20–30% of test results are likely to be inaccurate. The four cost-effectiveness studies suggested that testing results in small cost reductions. In the economic analysis the base-case analysis showed that standard practice (no testing/therapeutic monitoring with the intervention tests) was more costly and more effective than testing for IFX. Sensitivity and scenario analyses gave similar results. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated a 92% likelihood that the ‘no-testing’ strategy was cost-effective at a willingness to pay of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Strengths and limitations: Rigorous systematic reviews were undertaken; however, the underlying evidence base was poor or lacking. There was uncertainty about a linked evidence approach and a lack of gold standard for assay comparison. The only comparative evidence available for economic evaluation was for assays other than the intervention assays. Conclusions: Our finding that testing is not cost-effective for IFX should be viewed cautiously in view of the limited evidence. Clinicians should be mindful of variation in performance of different assays and of the absence of standardised approaches to patient assessment and treatment algorithms. Future work recommendations: There is substantial variation in the underlying treatment pathways and uncertainty in the relative effectiveness of assay- and test-based treatment algorithms, which requires further investigation. There is very little research evidence on ADA or on drug monitoring in children with CD, and conclusions on cost-effectiveness could not be reached for these. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014015278. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) [(Zopf 1883) Lehmann and Neumann 1896], is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Nearly one-third of the world’s population is infected with MTB; TB has an annual incidence of 9 million new cases and each year causes 2 million deaths worldwide. Objectives: To investigate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening tests [interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) and tuberculin skin tests (TSTs)] in latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) diagnosis to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline development for three population groups: children, immunocompromised people and those who have recently arrived in the UK from high-incidence countries. All of these groups are at higher risk of progression from LTBI to active TB. Data sources: Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library and Current Controlled Trials were searched from December 2009 up to December 2014. Review methods: English-language studies evaluating the comparative effectiveness of commercially available tests used for identifying LTBI in children, immunocompromised people and recent arrivals to the UK were eligible. Interventions were IGRAs [QuantiFERON®-TB Gold (QFT-G), QuantiFERON®-TB Gold-In-Tube (QFT-GIT) (Cellestis/Qiagen, Carnegie, VA, Australia) and T-SPOT.TB (Oxford Immunotec, Abingdon, UK)]. The comparator was TST 5 mm or 10 mm alone or with an IGRA. Two independent reviewers screened all identified records and undertook a quality assessment and data synthesis. A de novo model, structured in two stages, was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies. Results: In total, 6687 records were screened, of which 53 unique studies were included (a further 37 studies were identified from a previous NICE guideline). The majority of the included studies compared the strength of association for the QFT-GIT/G IGRA with the TST (5 mm or 10 mm) in relation to the incidence of active TB or previous TB exposure. Ten studies reported evidence on decision-analytic models to determine the cost-effectiveness of IGRAs compared with the TST for LTBI diagnosis. In children, TST (≥ 5 mm) negative followed by QFT-GIT was the most cost-effective strategy, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £18,900 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. In immunocompromised people, QFT-GIT negative followed by the TST (≥ 5 mm) was the most cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of approximately £18,700 per QALY gained. In those recently arrived from high TB incidence countries, the TST (≥ 5 mm) alone was less costly and more effective than TST (≥ 5 mm) positive followed by QFT-GIT or T-SPOT.TB or QFT-GIT alone. Limitations: The limitations and scarcity of the evidence, variation in the exposure-based definitions of LTBI and heterogeneity in IGRA performance relative to TST limit the applicability of the review findings. Conclusions: Given the current evidence, TST (≥ 5 mm) negative followed by QFT-GIT for children, QFT-GIT negative followed by TST (≥ 5 mm) for the immunocompromised population and TST (≥ 5 mm) for recent arrivals were the most cost-effective strategies for diagnosing LTBI that progresses to active TB. These results should be interpreted with caution given the limitations identified. The evidence available is limited and more high-quality research in this area is needed including studies on the inconsistent performance of tests in high-compared with low-incidence TB settings; the prospective assessment of progression to active TB for those at high risk; the relative benefits of two-compared with one-step testing with different tests; and improved classification of people at high and low risk for LTBI. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014009033. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Background: 5-Fluorouracil (5-FU) is a chemotherapy used in colorectal, head and neck (H&N) and other cancers. Dose adjustment is based on body surface area (BSA) but wide variations occur. Pharmacokinetic (PK) dosing is suggested to bring plasma levels into the therapeutic range to promote fewer side effects and better patient outcomes. We investigated the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the My5-FU assay for PK dose adjustment to 5-FU therapy. Objectives: To systematically review the evidence on the accuracy of the My5-FU assay compared with gold standard methods [high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS)]; the effectiveness of My5-FU PK dosing compared with BSA; the effectiveness of HPLC and/or LC-MS compared with BSA; the generalisability of published My5-FU and PK studies; costs of using My5-FU; to develop a cost-effectiveness model. Data sources: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index and other databases between January and April 2014. Methods: Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts with arbitration and consensus agreement. We undertook quality assessment. We reconstructed Kaplan–Meier plots for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for comparison of BSA and PK dosing. We developed a Markov model to compare My5-FU with BSA dosing which modelled PFS, OS and adverse events, using a 2-week cycle over a 20 year time horizon with a 3.5% discount rate. Health impacts were evaluated from the patient perspective, while costs were evaluated from the NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. Results: A total of 8341 records were identified through electronic searches and 35 and 54 studies were included in the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness reviews respectively. There was a high apparent correlation between My5-FU, HPLC and LC-MS/mass spectrometer but upper and lower limits of agreement were –18% to 30%. Median OS were estimated as 19.6 [95% confidence interval (CI) 17.0 to 21.0] months for PK versus 14.6 (95% CI 14.1 to 15.3) months for BSA for 5-FU + folinic acid (FA); and 27.4 (95% CI 23.2 to 38.8) months for PK versus 20.6 (95% CI 18.4 to 22.9) months for BSA for FOLFOX6 in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). PK versus BSA studies were generalisable to the relevant populations. We developed cost-effectiveness models for mCRC and H&N cancer. The base case assumed a cost per My5-FU assay of £61.03. For mCRC for 12 cycles of a oxaliplatin in combination with 5-fluorouracil and FA (FOLFOX) regimen, there was a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gain of 0.599 with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £4148 per QALY. Probabilistic and scenario analyses gave similar results. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve showed My5-FU to be 100% cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY. For H&N cancer, again, given caveats about the poor evidence base, we also estimated that My5-FU is likely to be cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY. Limitations: Quality and quantity of evidence were very weak for PK versus BSA dosing for all cancers with no randomised controlled trials (RCTs) using current regimens. For H&N cancer, two studies of regimens no longer in use were identified. Conclusions: Using a linked evidence approach, My5-FU appears to be cost-effective at a willingness to pay of £20,000 per QALY for both mCRC and H&N cancer. Considerable uncertainties remain about evidence quality and practical implementation. RCTs are needed of PK versus BSA dosing in relevant cancers. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.