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4. Summary for Policymakers

Author

Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Shukla, A.R, Reisinger, A., Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Shukla, A.R, and Reisinger, A.

Abstract

The Working Group III (WGIII) contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) assesses literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change.The report reflects new findings in the relevant literature and builds on previous IPCC reports, including the WGIII contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the WGI and WGII contributions to AR6 and the three Special Reports in the Sixth Assessment cycle, as well as other UN assessments.

Published
2022

11. Mitigation Pathways Compatible with Long-term Goals (Chapter 3)

Author

Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Nicholls, Z., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Arango, J., Calvin, K., Guivarch, C., Hasegawa, T., Jiang, K., Kriegler, E., Matthews, R., Peters, G.P., Rao, A., Robertson, S., Sebbit, A.M., Steinberger, J., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D.P., Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Nicholls, Z., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Arango, J., Calvin, K., Guivarch, C., Hasegawa, T., Jiang, K., Kriegler, E., Matthews, R., Peters, G.P., Rao, A., Robertson, S., Sebbit, A.M., Steinberger, J., Tavoni, M., and van Vuuren, D.P.

Abstract

Chapter 3 assesses the emissions pathways literature in order to identify their key characteristics (both in commonalities and differences) and to understand how societal choices may steer the system into a particular direction (high confidence). More than 2000 quantitative emissions pathways were submitted to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report AR6 scenarios database, out of which 1202 scenarios included sufficient information for assessing the associated warming consistent with WGI.

Published
2022
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12. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (Chapter 7)

Author

Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Nabuurs, G-J., Mrabet, R., Abu Hatab, A., Bustamante, M., Clark, H., Havlík, P., House, J., Mbow, C., Ninan, K.N., Popp, A., Roe, S., Sohngen, B., Towprayoon, S., Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Nabuurs, G-J., Mrabet, R., Abu Hatab, A., Bustamante, M., Clark, H., Havlík, P., House, J., Mbow, C., Ninan, K.N., Popp, A., Roe, S., Sohngen, B., and Towprayoon, S.

Abstract

The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector encompasses managed ecosystems and offers significant mitigation opportunities while delivering food, wood and other renewable resources as well as biodiversity conservation, provided the sector adapts to climate change. Land-based mitigation measures represent some of the most important options currently available. They can both deliver carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and substitute for fossil fuels, thereby enabling emissions reductions in other sectors. The rapid deployment of AFOLU measures is essential in all pathways staying within the limits of the remaining budget for a 1.5°C target (high confidence). Where carefully and appropriately implemented, AFOLU mitigation measures are uniquely positioned to deliver substantial co-benefits and help address many of the wider challenges associated with land management. If AFOLU measures are deployed badly then, when taken together with the increasing need to produce sufficient food, feed, fuel and wood, they may exacerbate trade-offs with the conservation of habitats, adaptation, biodiversity and other services. At the same time the capacity of the land to support these functions may be threatened by climate change itself (high confidence).

Published
2022

13. Cross-sectoral perspectives (Chapter 12)

Author

Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Babiker, M., Berndes, G., Blok, K., Cohen, B., Cowie, A., Geden, O., Ginzburg, V., Leip, A., Smith, P., Sugiyama, M., Yamba, F., Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Babiker, M., Berndes, G., Blok, K., Cohen, B., Cowie, A., Geden, O., Ginzburg, V., Leip, A., Smith, P., Sugiyama, M., and Yamba, F.

Abstract

The total emission mitigation potential achievable by the year 2030, calculated based on sectoral assessments, is sufficient to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to half of the current (2019) level or less (robust evidence, high agreement). This potential (32–44 GtCO2-eq) requires implementation of a wide range of mitigation options. Options with mitigation costs lower than USD20 tCO2 –1 make up more than half of this potential and are available for all sectors.

Published
2022

14. Transport (Chapter 10)

Author

Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Jaramillo, P., Kahn Ribeiro, S., Newman, P., Dhar, S., Diemuodeke, O.E., Kajino, T., Lee, D.S., Nugroho, S.B., Ou, X., Hammer Strømman, A., Whitehead, J., Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Jaramillo, P., Kahn Ribeiro, S., Newman, P., Dhar, S., Diemuodeke, O.E., Kajino, T., Lee, D.S., Nugroho, S.B., Ou, X., Hammer Strømman, A., and Whitehead, J.

Abstract

Meeting climate mitigation goals would require transformative changes in the transport sector (high confidence). In 2019, direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector were 8.7 GtCO2-eq (up from 5.0 GtCO2-eq in 1990) and accounted for 23% of global energy-related CO2 emissions. 70% of direct transport emissions came from road vehicles, while 1%, 11%, and 12% came from rail, shipping, and aviation, respectively. Emissions from shipping and aviation continue to grow rapidly. Transport related emissions in developing regions of the world have increased more rapidly than in Europe or North America, a trend that is likely to continue in coming decades (high confidence).

Published
2022

15. Emissions Trends and Drivers (Chapter 2)

Author

Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Dhakal, S., Minx, J.C., Toth, F., Abdel-Aziz, A., Figueroa Meza, M.J., Hubacek, K., Jonckheere, I.G.C., Kim, Y-G., Nemet, G.F., Pachauri, S., Tan, X.C., Wiedmann, T., Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Dhakal, S., Minx, J.C., Toth, F., Abdel-Aziz, A., Figueroa Meza, M.J., Hubacek, K., Jonckheere, I.G.C., Kim, Y-G., Nemet, G.F., Pachauri, S., Tan, X.C., and Wiedmann, T.

Abstract

Global net anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during the last decade (2010–2019) were higher than at any previous time in human history (high confidence). Since 2010, GHG emissions have continued to grow, reaching 59 ± 6.6 GtCO2-eq in 2019,1 but the average annual growth in the last decade (1.3%, 2010–2019) was lower than in the previous decade (2.1%, 2000–2009) (high confidence). Average annual GHG emissions were 56 ± 6.0 GtCO2-eq yr –1 for the decade 2010–2019 growing by about 9.1 GtCO2-eq yr –1 from the previous decade (2000–2009) – the highest decadal average on record (high confidence).

Published
2022

16. Annex III: Scenarios and modelling methods

Author

Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Guivarch, C., Kriegler, E., Portugal-Pereira, J., Bosetti, V., Edmonds, J., Fischedick, M., Havlík, P., Jaramillo, P., Krey, V., Lecocq, F., Lucena, A., Meinshausen, M., Mirasgedis, S., O'Neill, B., Peters, G.P., Rogelj, J., Rose, S., Saheb, Y., Strbac, G., Hammer Strømman, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Zhou, N., Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Guivarch, C., Kriegler, E., Portugal-Pereira, J., Bosetti, V., Edmonds, J., Fischedick, M., Havlík, P., Jaramillo, P., Krey, V., Lecocq, F., Lucena, A., Meinshausen, M., Mirasgedis, S., O'Neill, B., Peters, G.P., Rogelj, J., Rose, S., Saheb, Y., Strbac, G., Hammer Strømman, A., van Vuuren, D.P., and Zhou, N.

Abstract

The use of scenarios and modelling methods are pillars in IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) Assessment Reports. Past WGIII assessment report cycles identified knowledge gaps about the integration of modelling across scales and disciplines, mainly between global integrated assessment modelling methods and bottom-up modelling insights of mitigation responses. The need to improve the transparency of model assumptions and enhance the communication of scenario results was also recognised. This annex on Scenarios and Modelling Methods aims to address some of these gaps by detailing the modelling frameworks applied in the WGIII Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) chapters and disclose scenario assumptions and its key parameters. It has been explicitly included in the Scoping Meeting Report of the WGIII contribution to the AR6 and approved by the IPCC Panel at the 46th Session of the Panel.

Published
2022

17. Energy Systems (Chapter 6)

Author

Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Clarkero, L., Wei, Y.-M., De La Vega Navarro, A., Garg, A., Hahmann, A.N., Khennas, S., Azevedo, I.M.L., Löschel, A., Singh, A.K., Steg, L., Strbac, G., Wada, K., Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Clarkero, L., Wei, Y.-M., De La Vega Navarro, A., Garg, A., Hahmann, A.N., Khennas, S., Azevedo, I.M.L., Löschel, A., Singh, A.K., Steg, L., Strbac, G., and Wada, K.

Abstract

Warming cannot be limited to well below 2°C without rapid and deep reductions in energy system carbon dioxide (CO2) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot (2°C (>67%) with action starting in 2020), net energy system CO2 emissions (interquartile range) fall by 87–97% (60–79%) in 2050. In 2030, in scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot, net CO2 and GHG emissions fall by 35–51% and 38–52% respectively. In scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot (2°C (>67%)), net electricity sector CO2 emissions reach zero globally between 2045 and 2055 (2050 and 2080). (high confidence).

Published
2022

18. Mitigation and development pathways in the near- to mid-term (Chapter 4)

Author

Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Lecocq, F., Winkler, H., Daka, J.P., Fu, S., Gerber, G.S., Kartha, S., Krey, V., Lofgren, H., Masui, T., Mathur, R., Portugal-Pereira, J., Sovacool, B.K., Vilariño, M.V., Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Lecocq, F., Winkler, H., Daka, J.P., Fu, S., Gerber, G.S., Kartha, S., Krey, V., Lofgren, H., Masui, T., Mathur, R., Portugal-Pereira, J., Sovacool, B.K., and Vilariño, M.V.

Abstract

This chapter focuses on accelerating mitigation and on shifting development pathways to increased sustainability, based on literature particularly at national scale. While previous WGIII assessments have discussed mitigation pathways, focus on development pathways is more recent. The timeframe is the near term (now up to 2030) to mid-term (2030 to 2050), complementing Chapter 3 on the long term (from 2050 onward).

Published
2022

19. Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation (Chapter 5)

Author

Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Creutzig, F., Roy, J., Devine-Wright, P., Díaz-José, J., Geels, F.W., Grubler, A., Maïzi, N., Masane, E., Mulugetta, Y., Onyige, C.D., Perkins, P.E., Sanches-Pereira, A., Weber, E.U., Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Creutzig, F., Roy, J., Devine-Wright, P., Díaz-José, J., Geels, F.W., Grubler, A., Maïzi, N., Masane, E., Mulugetta, Y., Onyige, C.D., Perkins, P.E., Sanches-Pereira, A., and Weber, E.U.

Abstract

Assessment of the social science literature and regional case studies reveals how social norms, culture, and individual choices interact with infrastructure and other structural changes over time. This provides new insight into climate change mitigation strategies, and how economic and social activity might be organised across sectors to support emission reductions. To enhance well-being, people demand services and not primary energy and physical resources per se. Focusing on demand for services and the different social and political roles people play broadens the participation in climate action.

Published
2022

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