Search

This report describes the U. S. Navy Shore Activity Manpower Planning System (SAMPS) project. This effort is aimed at large-scale feasibility tests of manpower models for large Naval installations. These local planning systms are integrated with Navy-wide information systems on a data-communications network accessible via minicomputers. This includes both intake requirements planning models and man-job task analysis models as well as workload forecasting systems which are integrated with the manpower planning process. In addition to the system design considerations, experience from preliminary tests is discussed., Presented at ORSA/TIMS Joint National Meeting, 2 Apr 1976, Philadelphia, PA.

This report is concerned with the development of models for determining recruiting requirements based upon manpower goals and for promotion planning. These models were tested at a large industrial facility and at a large laboratory. (Author)

The paper discussed the reactions of managers to interactive conversational manpower planning models. These goal programming models originally developed by Charnes, Cooper, and Niehaus are supported by a comprehensive software capability including a specialized matrix generator and conversational statement repertoire. The first test involves the use of the model by the management of a large naval laboratory. The second involves the examination of broad civilian career planning policies by headquarters officials.

The paper reviews work done to date in the application of assignment models within the Navy and reports on an implementation test. The models are of the goal-programming variety in which the deviations of assignees' possession of multiple attributes from desired levels for various jobs can simultaneously be minimized. Task surveys are applied to describe actual job-types instead of normative position descriptions. Attributes chosen for man-job matching are task-level data from selected blue-collar occupation families; validity and reliability are also discussed.

The paper discusses the computer software system for manpower planning developed by the Navy Department's Office of Civilian Manpower Management. First, the problem is discussed, followed by a description of the formulation of the model for recruiting requirements planning. Then, a description of the system flow is given, starting with the sources of input data, moving to the various intermediate processing subsystems, and closing with the model matrix generator and output processing. Examples of the various system outputs and underlying model structures are given. The final section of the paper describes various operational and research applications which have been completed or which are contemplated.

Previous developments of manpower planning models involving uses of goal programming with embedded Markoff processes are extended in order to explicitly comprehend truncational effects e.g., those due to retirement, and allow for interperiod Markoff transition matrices which change over time., Prepared in cooperation with Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL., Systems Research Group.

A new algorithm for multi-attribute assignment models is presented. Built around the concept of a biased quadratic objective, it proceeds via a sequence of related assignments. Optional stopping is applied when an approximation to the optimum assignment is identified. A second part of the paper deals with manpower planning and organization designs which interact dynamically. A spectral analysis approach is used to obtain estimates of career patters and aspirations in terms of observed and potential transition problems. Goal programming approaches are used in both parts of the paper., Prepared in cooperation with Texas Univ., Austin. Center for Cybernetic Studies, Contract N00014-68-A-0126-0008, N00014-67-A-0126-0009.

The paper discusses current testing of the application of assignment models in civilian manpower planning within the Navy. The testing in question is a series of prototype trials of a static multi-attribute assignment model which employs a linear reduction of a biased quadratic goal-deviation functional as previously reported by Charnes, Cooper, Klingman, and Niehaus. In this manner, the deviations of assignees' possession of attributes from desired levels for the various jobs can be minimized. For the present testing, the attributes used for man-job matching are job-elements of selected blue-collar occupation-families. The paper addresses the implementation of a computer system to support the model, the selection both of a prototype population and of the measures to be used as attributes, and a discussion of the progress of the prototype trials. (Modified author abstract)

A new algorithm for multi-attribute assignment models is presented. Built around the concept of a biased quadratic objective, it proceeds via a sequence of related assignments. Optional stopping is applied when an approximation to the optimum assignment is identified. A second part of the paper deals with manpower planning and organization designs which interact dynamically. A spectral analysis approach is utilized to obtain estimates of career patterns and aspirations in terms of observed and potential transition problems. Goal programming approaches are utilized in both parts of this paper. This is done not only to relate them to each other but also to relate these developments to prior modeling efforts which the authors have undertaken in related areas of manpower planning. (Author)

The report uses the Personnel Automated Data Systems as a data base to develop a prototype example of its use in a goal programming model to develop net manpower requirements which take into account salary and budget data as well as stipulated manpower floors and ceilings in each relevant period. (Author)

The OCMM models for manpower planning were initially formulated in terms of a goal-programming, Markoff process combination with the latter embedded in the former. This subsequently admitted of a further extension in which the Markovian elements were reformulated so that they could be submitted to chance-constrained programming use and interpretations. They made it possible to plan for personnel recruitment, training, re-training and stochastically determined transfers, so that selected constraint stipulationn would be honored with prescribed probabilities in any set of differing time intervals for which such constraints might be imposed. Here, a further extension is made: An input-output (Leontief) analysis of an often one-period variety is embedded in a goal programming formulation which is subsequently extended to a two-period dynamic formulation. Applications to manpower planning and resource allocation are examined for their support as well as their direct activity implications. (Author)