Search

The 2033 Mars launch period provides a unique opportunity for a round trip mission with a total flight time of only 1.6 years. A concept is presented to perform a crewed Mars orbital mission in 2033 that would minimize development and mission risk by using conventional hypergolic in-space propulsion stages with a common design. The Mars mission vehicle would include a Mars transit habitat, an Orion spacecraft, and chemical propulsion stages. It would be launched by a combination of SLS and commercial rockets to be aggregated in high Earth orbit or at the Lunar Gateway. The crew would launch to the mission vehicle in Orion as the final element in the assembly. After transit to Mars, the crew would spend about 30 days in a high Mars orbit and then return to Earth via a Venus flyby and gravity assist. A sunshade would be deployed for thermal control of the mission vehicle inside 1 AU. The crew would return directly to Earth in the Orion crew module, with the transit habitat being expended. The 2033 mission would not be a “one-off”, but could be a pathfinder for crew transport for landing missions to follow, perhaps starting as early as 2037.

UNKNOWN

UNKNOWN

Since the cancellation of the Constellation Program, NASA officially has been focused on Mars as the next step for human exploration. Yet many in the space community believe that returning humans to the moon is more logical. Often-cited reasons for this include: (1) should Nature prove to be favorable, the moon could be the basis for expanding the space economy through Off-Earth Mining (OEM) and other commercial endeavors; (2) the moon is scientifically interesting and could serve as a platform for scientific facilities; and (3) useful experience could be gained there for the human journey to Mars. With this in mind, JPL’s A-Team (Architecture Team) was tasked with developing conceptual lunar surface architectures that could simultaneously provide “living on another world” proving ground experience, but would also be affordable and offer truly significant commercial and international partnering opportunities. The task also required that the resulting architectures must eventually lead to and flow seamlessly into planning for human missions to Mars in the 2030s/2040s, if “things go well.” This aspect has been critically missing in other lunar architecture proposals.

This database, the Mars Colony Architecture Model (MCAM), is then linked to a variety of “downsteam” analytic models. In particular, we integrated an Extraction Process (i.e., “Mining”) Model, an Infrastructure and Integrated Logistics Support (ILS) Model, and an Economics Integration Model. The Extraction Process Model focuses on the technologies associated with in situ resource extraction, processing, storage and handling, and delivery. For each mined resource, which may involve multiple cooperating In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) systems in a given architecture, the Extraction Process Model computes the production rate as a function of the systems’ technical parameters and the local Mars environment. As with our earlier work, this model focuses on the extraction and processing of Mars water/ice.

HSFAM is a data model based on the DoDAF 2.02 data model with some for purpose extensions. These extensions are designed to permit quantitative analyses regarding stakeholder concerns about technical feasibility, configuration and interface issues, and budgetary and/or economic viability.

Incorporating risk assessment into the dynamic environment of a concurrent engineering team requires rapid response and adaptation. Generating consistent risk lists with inputs from all the relevant subsystems and presenting the results clearly to the stakeholders in a concurrent engineering environment is difficult because of the speed with which decisions are made. In this paper we describe the various approaches and techniques that have been explored for the point designs of JPL's Team X and the Trade Space Studies of the Rapid Mission Architecture Team. The paper will also focus on the issues of the misuse of categorical and ordinal data that keep arising within current engineering risk approaches and also in the applied risk literature.

This paper summarizes the current state of the art in interplanetary supply chain modeling and discusses SpaceNet as one particular method and tool to address space logistics modeling and simulation challenges. Fundamental upgrades to the interplanetary supply chain framework such as process groups, nested elements, and cargo sharing, enabled SpaceNet to model an integrated set of missions as a campaign. The capabilities and uses of SpaceNet are demonstrated by a step-by-step modeling and simulation of a lunar campaign.

UNKNOWN

This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

Risk management advocates have long sought to directly influence the early stages of the systems engineering process through a more effective role in system design trade studies. The principal obstacle to this has been the lack of credible ways to represent and quantify mission risk—that is, a combination of the probability of mission success (“system safety”) and science value—for the project manager and the rest of the design team. If it were possible to quantify mission risk, then the effects of proposed mission and system design changes could be calculated, and along with life-cycle costs, could be used to explore the design space more extensively and select better designs. JPL has been working to build the capability to quantify the probability of mission success using a federation of diverse simulations and models, each of which contributes some vital piece of the puzzle. The initial institutional focus has been on Mars surface operations. This ensemble computing framework enables the diverse models and simulations to work together seamlessly. Recent work at JPL has demonstrated the capability to exercise this ensemble from end-to-end using an Oracle-based database to automatically move results from one model/simulation to the next stage in the analysis.

On 4 July 1997, the Mars Pathfinder landed on the surface of Mars carrying the first planetary rover, known as the Sojourner. Formally known as the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX), the Sojourner was a low cost, high-risk technology demonstration, in which new risk management techniques were tried. This paper summarizes the activities and results of the effort to conduct a low-cost, yet meaningful risk management program for the MFEX. The specific activities focused on cost, performance, schedule, and operations risks. Just as the systems engineering process was iterative and produced successive refinements of requirements, designs, etc., so was the risk management process. Qualitative risk assessments were performed first to gain some insights for refining the microrover design and operations concept. These then evolved into more quantitative analyses. Risk management lessons from the manager's perspective is presented for other low-cost, high-risk space missions.

This paper summarizes work in progress to define and implement a risk management process tailored to a low-cost, high-risk, NASA mission -the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX, commonly called the Mars microrover).

This handbook brings the fundamental concepts and techniques of systems engineering to NASA personnel in a way that recognizes the nature of NASA systems and environment. It is intended to accompany formal NASA training courses on systems engineering and project management when appropriate, and is designed to be a top-level overview. The concepts were drawn from NASA field center handbooks, NMI's/NHB's, the work of the NASA-wide Systems Engineering Working Group and the Systems Engineering Process Improvement Task team, several non-NASA textbooks and guides, and material from independent systems engineering courses taught to NASA personnel. Five core chapters cover systems engineering fundamentals, the NASA Project Cycle, management issues in systems engineering, systems analysis and modeling, and specialty engineering integration. It is not intended as a directive. Superseded by: NASA/SP-2007-6105 Rev 1 (20080008301).

When applied to a system, the doctrine of successive refinement is a divide-and-conquer strategy. Complex systems are sucessively divided into pieces that are less complex, until they are simple enough to be conquered. This decomposition results in several structures for describing the product system and the producing system. These structures play important roles in systems engineering and project management. Many of the remaining sections in this chapter are devoted to describing some of these key structures. Structures that describe the product system include, but are not limited to, the requirements tree, system architecture and certain symbolic information such as system drawings, schematics, and data bases. The structures that describe the producing system include the project's work breakdown, schedules, cost accounts and organization.

This handbook is intended to provide information on systems engineering that will be useful to NASA system engineers, especially new ones. Its primary objective is to provide a generic description of systems engineering as it should be applied throughout NASA. Field Center Handbooks are encouraged to provide center-specific details of implementation. For NASA system engineers to choose to keep a copy of this handbook at their elbows, it must provide answers that cannot be easily found elsewhere. Consequently, it provides NASA-relevant perspectives and NASA-particular data. NASA management instructions (NMI's) are referenced when applicable. This handbook's secondary objective is to serve as a useful companion to all of the various courses in systems engineering that are being offered under NASA's auspices. The coverage of systems engineering is general to techniques, concepts, and generic descriptions of processes, tools, and techniques. It provides good systems engineering practices, and pitfalls to avoid. This handbook describes systems engineering as it should be applied to the development of major NASA product and producing systems.

System Design Tradeoff Model (SDTM) computer program produces information which helps to enforce consistency of design objectives throughout system. Mathematical model of set of possible designs for Space Station Freedom. Program finds particular design enabling station to provide specified amounts of resources to users at lowest total (or life-cycle) cost. Compares alternative design concepts by changing set of possible designs, while holding specified services to users constant, and then comparing costs. Finally, both costs and services varied simultaneously when comparing different designs. Written in Turbo C 2.0.

MESSOC (Model for Estimating Space Station Operations Costs) is the result of a multi-year effort by NASA to understand and model the mature operations cost of Space Station Freedom. This paper focuses on MESSOC's ability to contribute to life-cycle cost analyses through its logistics equations and databases. Together, these afford MESSOC the capability to project not only annual logistics costs for a variety of Space Station scenarios, but critical non-cost logistics results such as annual Station maintenance crewhours, upweight/downweight, and on-orbit sparing availability as well. MESSOC results using current logistics databases and baseline scenario have already shown important implications for on-orbit maintenance approaches, space transportation systems, and international operations cost sharing.