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3. The 2018 Eruption of Kīlauea: Insights, Puzzles, and Opportunities for Volcano Science.

Author

Anderson, Kyle R., Shea, Thomas, Lynn, Kendra J., Montgomery-Brown, Emily K., Swanson, Donald A., Patrick, Matthew R., Shiro, Brian R., and Neal, Christina A.

Subjects
VOLCANOES, EARTHQUAKES, VOLCANIC eruptions, VOLCANOLOGY, LAVA flows, CALDERAS
Abstract

The science of volcanology advances disproportionately during exceptionally large or well-observed eruptions. The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano (Hawai'i) was its most impactful in centuries, involving an outpouring of more than one cubic kilometer of basalt, a magnitude 7 flank earthquake, and the volcano's largest summit collapse since at least the nineteenth century. Eruptive activity was documented in detail, yielding new insights into large caldera-rift eruptions; the geometry of a shallow magma storage-transport system and its interaction with rift zone tectonics; mechanisms of basaltic tephra-producing explosions; caldera collapse mechanics; and the dynamics of fissure eruptions and high-volume lava flows. Insights are broadly applicable to a range of volcanic systems and should reduce risk from future eruptions. Multidisciplinary collaboration will be required to fully leverage the diversity of monitoring data to address many of the most important outstanding questions. Unprecedented observations of a caldera collapse and coupled rift zone eruption yield new opportunities for advancing volcano science. Magma flow to a low-elevation rift zone vent triggered quasi-periodic step-like collapse of a summit caldera, which pressurized the magma system and sustained the eruption. Kīlauea's magmatic-tectonic system is tightly interconnected over tens of kilometers, with complex feedback mechanisms and interrelated hazards over widely varying timescales. The eruption revealed magma stored in diverse locations, volumes, and compositions, not only beneath the summit but also within the volcano's most active rift zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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6. The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

Author

Petersen, Mark D, Shumway, Allison M, Powers, Peter M, Field, Edward H, Moschetti, Morgan P, Jaiswal, Kishor S, Milner, Kevin R, Rezaeian, Sanaz, Frankel, Arthur D, Llenos, Andrea L, Michael, Andrew J, Altekruse, Jason M, Ahdi, Sean K, Withers, Kyle B, Mueller, Charles S, Zeng, Yuehua, Chase, Robert E, Salditch, Leah M, Luco, Nicolas, Rukstales, Kenneth S, Herrick, Julie A, Girot, Demi L, Aagaard, Brad T, Bender, Adrian M, Blanpied, Michael L, Briggs, Richard W, Boyd, Oliver S, Clayton, Brandon S, DuRoss, Christopher B, Evans, Eileen L, Haeussler, Peter J, Hatem, Alexandra E, Haynie, Kirstie L, Hearn, Elizabeth H, Johnson, Kaj M, Kortum, Zachary A, Kwong, N Simon, Makdisi, Andrew J, Mason, H Benjamin, McNamara, Daniel E, McPhillips, Devin F, Okubo, Paul G, Page, Morgan T, Pollitz, Fred F, Rubinstein, Justin L, Shaw, Bruce E, Shen, Zheng-Kang, Shiro, Brian R, Smith, James A, Stephenson, William J, Thompson, Eric M, Thompson Jobe, Jessica A, Wirth, Erin A, and Witter, Robert C

Abstract

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increases and decreases compared to previous NSHMs) are substantial because the new model considers more data and updated earthquake rupture forecasts and ground-motion components. In developing the 2023 model, we tried to apply best available or applicable science based on advice of co-authors, more than 50 reviewers, and hundreds of hazard scientists and end-users, who attended public workshops and provided technical inputs. The hazard assessment incorporates new catalogs, declustering algorithms, gridded seismicity models, magnitude-scaling equations, fault-based structural and deformation models, multi-fault earthquake rupture forecast models, semi-empirical and simulation-based ground-motion models, and site amplification models conditioned on shear-wave velocities of the upper 30 m of soil and deeper sedimentary basin structures. Seismic hazard calculations yield hazard curves at hundreds of thousands of sites, ground-motion maps, uniform-hazard response spectra, and disaggregations developed for pseudo-spectral accelerations at 21 oscillator periods and two peak parameters, Modified Mercalli Intensity, and 8 site classes required by building codes and other public policy applications. Tests show the new model is consistent with past ShakeMap intensity observations. Sensitivity and uncertainty assessments ensure resulting ground motions are compatible with known hazard information and highlight the range and causes of variability in ground motions. We produce several impact products including building seismic design criteria, intensity maps, planning scenarios, and engineering risk assessments showing the potential physical and social impacts. These applications provide a basis for assessing, planning, and mitigating the effects of future earthquakes.

Published
2024
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9. Studies of Young Hawai'ian Lava Tubes: Implications for Planetary Habitability and Human Exploration

Author

McAdam, Amy, Bleacher, Jacob, Young, Kelsey, Johnson, Sarah Stewart, Needham, Debra, Schmerr, Nicholas, Shiro, Brian, Garry, Brent, Whelley, Patrick, Knudson, Christine, and Andrejkovicova, Slavka

Subjects
Exobiology, Lunar And Planetary Science And Exploration, Earth Resources And Remote Sensing
Abstract

Habitability: Subsurface environments may preserve records of habitability or biosignatures, with more stable environmental conditions compared to surface (e.g., smaller variations in temperature and humidity) and reduced exposure to radiation; Lava tubes are expected on Mars, and candidates are observed from orbit; Few detailed studies of microbial populations in terrestrial lava caves; Also contain a variety of secondary minerals; Microbial activity may play a role in mineral formation or be preserved in these minerals; Minerals can provide insight into fluids (e.g., pH, temperature).

Published
2017

11. 2021 US National Seismic Hazard Model for the State of Hawaii

Author

Petersen, Mark D, primary, Shumway, Allison M, additional, Powers, Peter M, additional, Moschetti, Morgan P, additional, Llenos, Andrea L, additional, Michael, Andrew J, additional, Mueller, Charles S, additional, Frankel, Arthur D, additional, Rezaeian, Sanaz, additional, Rukstales, Kenneth S, additional, McNamara, Daniel E, additional, Okubo, Paul G, additional, Zeng, Yuehua, additional, Jaiswal, Kishor S, additional, Ahdi, Sean K, additional, Altekruse, Jason M, additional, and Shiro, Brian R, additional

Published
2021
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12. Seismic Monitoring during Crises at the NEIC in Support of the ANSS

Author

Earle, Paul S., primary, Benz, Harley M., additional, Yeck, William L., additional, Hayes, Gavin P., additional, Guy, Michelle R., additional, Patton, John M., additional, Kragness, David S., additional, Mason, David B., additional, Shiro, Brian R., additional, Wolin, Emily L. G., additional, Bellini, John J., additional, Pursley, Jana, additional, and Sanders, Robert L., additional

Published
2021
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13. Analyzing Low Frequency Seismic Events at Cerberus Fossae as Long Period Volcanic Quakes

Author

Kedar, Sharon, primary, Panning, Mark P., additional, Smrekar, Suzanne E., additional, Stähler, Simon C., additional, King, Scott D., additional, Golombek, Matthew P., additional, Manga, Michael, additional, Julian, Bruce R., additional, Shiro, Brian, additional, Perrin, Clement, additional, Power, John A., additional, Michaut, Chloe, additional, Ceylan, Savas, additional, Giardini, Domenico, additional, Lognonné, Philippe H., additional, and Banerdt, William B., additional

Published
2021
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14. The Importance of Field Studies for Closing Key Knowledge Gaps in Planetary Science

Author

Whelley, Patrick, primary, Achilles, Cherie N., additional, Baldridge, Alice M., additional, Banks, Maria E., additional, Bell, Ernest, additional, Bernhardt, Hannes, additional, Bishop, Janice, additional, Blank, Jennifer G., additional, Bower, Dina M., additional, Byrne, Shane, additional, Clark, Jaclyn, additional, Crown, David A., additional, Crumpler, Larry S., additional, Czarnecki, Sean, additional, Davies, Ashly, additional, Wet, Andrew de, additional, Dean, Jake W., additional, Dibb, Steven, additional, Dong, Chuanfei, additional, Edgar, Lauren A., additional, Fagents, Sarah, additional, Glotch, Timothy D., additional, Goudge, Timothy A., additional, Graettinger, Alison H., additional, Graff, Trevor G., additional, Gullikson, Amber L., additional, Hamilton, Christopher W., additional, Honniball, Casey I., additional, Hubbard, Kevin, additional, Kerber, Laura, additional, Kestay, Laszlo, additional, Kobs-Nawotniak, Shannon, additional, Lane, Melissa D., additional, Lau, Graham, additional, Law, Emily, additional, Lev, Einat, additional, Matiella-Novak, Alexandra, additional, McAdam, Amy, additional, Moersch, Jeffrey E., additional, Neish, Catherine, additional, Osinski, Gordon, additional, Parekh, Rutu, additional, Paris, Kristen, additional, Patrick, Edward L., additional, Rampe, Elizabeth, additional, Richardson, Jacob, additional, Romo, Rodrigo, additional, Rumpf, M. Elise, additional, Runyon, Kirby, additional, Rutledge, Alicia M., additional, Scheidt, Stephen P., additional, Schmerr, Nicholas, additional, Semken, Steven, additional, Shiro, Brian, additional, Shock, Everett L., additional, Skok, John Roma, additional, Sutton, Sarah S., additional, Swann, Jessica, additional, Thorpe, Michael T., additional, Ukstins, Ingrid A., additional, Susante, Paul J. van, additional, Whelley, Nicole, additional, Williams, David A., additional, Yingst, R. Aileen, additional, Young, Kelsey, additional, Zaloumis, Jon, additional, and Zimbelman, James R., additional

Published
2021
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20. Flashline Mars Arctic Research Station (FMARS) 2009 Crew Perspectives

Author

Ferrone, Kristine, Cusack, Stacy L, Garvin, Christy, Kramer, Walter Vernon, Palaia, Joseph E., IV, and Shiro, Brian

Subjects
Lunar And Planetary Science And Exploration
Abstract

A crew of six "astronauts" inhabited the Mars Society s Flashline Mars Arctic Research Station (FMARS) for the month of July 2009, conducting a simulated Mars exploration mission. In addition to the various technical achievements during the mission, the crew learned a vast amount about themselves and about human factors relevant to a future mission to Mars. Their experiences, detailed in their own words, show the passion of those with strong commitment to space exploration and detail the human experiences for space explorers including separation from loved ones, interpersonal conflict, dietary considerations, and the exhilaration of surmounting difficult challenges.

Published
2010

21. 2021 US National Seismic Hazard Model for the State of Hawaii

Author

Petersen, Mark D, Shumway, Allison M, Powers, Peter M, Moschetti, Morgan P, Llenos, Andrea L, Michael, Andrew J, Mueller, Charles S, Frankel, Arthur D, Rezaeian, Sanaz, Rukstales, Kenneth S, McNamara, Daniel E, Okubo, Paul G, Zeng, Yuehua, Jaiswal, Kishor S, Ahdi, Sean K, Altekruse, Jason M, and Shiro, Brian R

Abstract

The 2021 US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii updates the previous two-decade-old assessment by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the underlying ground shaking forecasts of tectonic-fault, tectonic-flexure, volcanic, and caldera collapse earthquakes. Two earthquake ground shaking hazard forecasts (public policy and research) are produced that differ in how they account for declustered catalogs. The earthquake source model is based on (1) declustered earthquake catalogs smoothed with adaptive methods, (2) earthquake rate forecasts based on three temporally varying 60-year time periods, (3) maximum magnitude criteria that extend to larger earthquakes than previously considered, (4) a separate Kīlauea-specific seismogenic caldera collapse model that accounts for clustered event behavior observed during the 2018 eruption, and (5) fault ruptures that consider historical seismicity, GPS-based strain rates, and a new Quaternary fault database. Two new Hawaii-specific ground motion models (GMMs) and five additional global models consistent with Hawaii shaking data are used to forecast ground shaking at 23 spectral periods and peak parameters. Site effects are calculated using western US and Hawaii specific empirical equations and provide shaking forecasts for 8 site classes. For most sites the new analysis results in similar spectral accelerations as those in the 2001 NSHM, with a few exceptions caused mostly by GMM changes. Ground motions are the highest in the southern portion of the Island of Hawai’i due to high rates of forecasted earthquakes on décollement faults. Shaking decays to the northwest where lower earthquake rates result from flexure of the tectonic plate. Large epistemic uncertainties in source characterizations and GMMs lead to an overall high uncertainty (more than a factor of 3) in ground shaking at Honolulu and Hilo. The new shaking model indicates significant chances of slight or greater damaging ground motions across most of the island chain.

Published
2022
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22. Use of Web 2.0 Technologies for Public Outreach on a Simulated Mars Mission

Author

Ferrone, Kristine, Shiro, Brian, and Palaia, Joseph E., IV

Subjects
Lunar And Planetary Science And Exploration
Abstract

Recent advances in social media and internet communications have revolutionized the ways people interact and disseminate information. Astronauts are already taking advantage of these tools by blogging and tweeting from space, and almost all NASA missions now have presences on the major social networking sites. One priotity for future human explorers on Mars will be communicating their experiences to the people back on Earth. During July 2009, a 6-member crew of volunteers carried out a simulated Mars mission at the Flashline Mars Arctic Research Station (FMARS). The Mars Society built the mock Mars habitat in 2000-01 to help develop key knowledge and inspire the public for human Mars exploration. It is located on Devon island about 1600 km from the North Pole within the Arctic Circle. The structure is situated on the rim of Haughton Crater in an environment geologically and biologically analogous to Mars. Living in a habitat, conducting EVAs wearing spacesuits, and observing communication delays with "Earth,"the crew endured restrictions similar to those that will be faced by future human Mars explorers. Throughout the expedition, crewmembers posted daily blog entries, reports, photos, videos, and updates to their website and social media outlets Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Picasa Web Albums. During the sixteen EVAs of thier field science research campaign, FMARS crewmembers collected GPS track information and took geotagged photos using GPS-enabled cameras. They combined their traverse GPS tracks with photo location information into KML/KMZ files that website visitors can view in Google Earth.

Published
2009

23. Flashline Mars Arctic Research Station (FMARS) 2009 Expedition Crew Perspectives

Author

Cusack, Stacy, Ferrone, Kristine, Garvin, Christy, Kramer, W. Vernon, Palaia, Joseph, IV, and Shiro, Brian

Subjects
Lunar And Planetary Science And Exploration
Abstract

The Flashline Mars Arctic Research Station (FMARS), located on the rim of the Haughton Crater on Devon Island in the Canadian Arctic, is a simulated Mars habitat that provides operational constraints similar to those which will be faced by future human explorers on Mars. In July 2009, a six-member crew inhabited the isolated habitation module and conducted the twelfth FMARS mission. The crew members conducted frequent EVA operations wearing mock space suits to conduct field experiments under realistic Mars-like conditions. Their scientific campaign spanned a wide range of disciplines and included many firsts for Mars analog research. Among these are the first use of a Class IV medical laser during a Mars simulation, helping to relieve crew stress injuries during the mission. Also employed for the first time in a Mars simulation at FMARS, a UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) was used by the space-suited explorers, aiding them in their search for mineral resources. Sites identified by the UAV were then visited by geologists who conducted physical geologic sampling. For the first time, explorers in spacesuits deployed passive seismic equipment to monitor earthquake activity and characterize the planet's interior. They also conducted the first geophysical electromagnetic survey as analog Mars pioneers to search for water and characterize geological features under the surface. The crew collected hydrated minerals and attempted to produce drinkable water from the rocks. A variety of equipment was field tested as well, including new cameras that automatically geotag photos, data-recording GPS units, a tele-presence rover (operated from Florida), as well as MIT-developed mission planning software. As plans develop to return to the Moon and go on to Mars, analog facilities like FMARS can provide significant benefit to NASA and other organizations as they prepare for robust human space exploration. The authors will present preliminary results from these studies as well as their perspectives on topics including human factors, logistics, EVA operations, and the use of social media throughout the mission.

Published
2009

27. Real-time forecasting of the April 11, 2012 Sumatra tsunami

Author

Wang, Dailin, Becker, Nathan C., Walsh, David, Fryer, Gerard J., Weinstein, Stuart, Mccreery, Charles S., Sardiña, Víctor, Hsu, Vindell, Hirshorn, Barry F., Hayes, Gavin, Duputel, Zacharie, Rivera, Luis, Kanamori, Hiroo, Koyanagi, Kanoa K., Shiro, Brian, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), United States Geological Survey [Reston] (USGS), Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Sismologie (IPGS) (IPGS-Sismologie), Institut de physique du globe de Strasbourg (IPGS), Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), and Rivera, Luis

Subjects
[SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH] Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.GP] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph]
Abstract

International audience; The April 11, 2012, magnitude 8.6 earthquake off the northern coast of Sumatra generated a tsunami that was recorded at sea-level stations as far as 4800 km from the epicenter and at four ocean bottom pressure sensors (DARTs) in the Indian Ocean. The governments of India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Maldives issued tsunami warnings for their coastlines. The United States' Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) issued an Indian Ocean-wide Tsunami Watch Bulletin in its role as an Interim Service Provider for the region. Using an experimental real-time tsunami forecast model (RIFT), PTWC produced a series of tsunami forecasts during the event that were based on rapidly derived earthquake parameters, including initial location and Mwp magnitude estimates and the W-phase centroid moment tensor solutions (W-phase CMTs) obtained at PTWC and at the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). We discuss the real-time forecast methodology and how successive, real-time tsunami forecasts using the latest W-phase CMT solutions improved the accuracy of the forecast

Published
2012

30. The development of a commercial crew service.

Author

Ferrone, Kristine, Shiro, Brian, Howard, Mindy, Seedhouse, Erik, Saraiva, Luis, and Boley, Jon

Abstract

The growth of the commercial spaceflight industry in recent years led to the April 2010 birth of Astronauts4Hire (A4H), a nonprofit organization aimed at developing the market and supply of commercial astronaut candidates. To date, A4H is comprised of 22 carefully selected Flight Members (the “Astronauts4Hire”) with a total of 30 advanced degrees, 13 SCUBA divers, 11 pilots, and 15 Zero- or High-G trained. A4H's first for-hire job was completed in February 2011 in a Zero-G environment, and first official training session was completed in July 2011 which included sea survival, emergency egress, centrifuge, altitude chamber, and spatial disorientation training. The first class of A4H Research Specialist astronauts will be fully trained for parabolic and suborbital flight by early 2012. As with virtually all entrepreneurial firms, Astronauts4Hire's identity evolves as the market and our understanding of it changes rapidly. This paper will describe the evolving nature of the developing enterprise, overall objectives for improving the status quo in commercial astronaut selection and development, and the training plan for A4H Flight Members. Specific training topics will include the rationale for selecting Flight Member training requirements and human factors integration of commercial crew with vehicles. Further, we will discuss the current and projected future market for commercial astronauts and A4H's role in its development. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Published
2012
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36. Earthquakes indicated magma viscosity during Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption

Author

Dingwell, Donald, Houghton, Bruce, Roman, Diana, Soldati, Arianna, and Shiro, Brian

Subjects
bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Earth Sciences, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Earth Sciences, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Earth Sciences|Volcanology, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Earth Sciences|Volcanology, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Abstract

Magma viscosity is a primary control on volcanic eruption style and thus on hazard potential, but can only be measured syn- or post-eruption. Identification of precursors indicative of magma viscosity would enable forecasting of eruption style and the scale of associated hazards1. The unanticipated May 2018 rift intrusion and eruption of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i2 displayed exceptional chemical and thermal variability in erupted lavas, leading to unpredictable effusion rates and explosivity. Here we show that the orientation of fault-plane solutions for earthquakes preceding and accompanying the 2018 eruption indicate a 90° local stress field rotation, a phenomenon previously observed only at high-viscosity eruptions3, and never before at Kı̄lauea4-8. Experimentally-obtained viscosities for 2018 products and earlier lavas from the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vents tightly constrain the viscosity threshold required for local stress field reorientation. We argue that rotated fault-plane solutions in earthquake swarms at Kīlauea and other volcanoes worldwide provide an early indication that unrest involves relatively viscous magma, and thus real-time monitoring of fault-plane solutions orientations could provide critical information on impending eruption style. Furthermore, our results provide novel insight into the fundamental nature of coupled failure and flow in complex multiphase systems.

39. DEMYSTIFYING "THE POWER OF THE SEA.".

Author

Shiro, Brian

Subjects
*TSUNAMIS, *NONFICTION
Abstract

The article reviews the book "The Power of the Sea: Tsunamis, Storm Surges, Rogue Wages, and Our Quest to Predict Disasters," by Bruce Parker.

Published
2011

40. Preoperative serum CA-125 levels in treating endometrial cancer.

Author

Powell JL, Hill KA, Shiro BC, Diehl SJ, and Gajewski WH

Subjects
Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Endometrial Neoplasms blood, Endometrial Neoplasms surgery, Female, Humans, Logistic Models, Lymph Nodes pathology, Middle Aged, Neoplasm Invasiveness, Neoplasm Staging, Predictive Value of Tests, Preoperative Care, Prognosis, ROC Curve, Retrospective Studies, Sensitivity and Specificity, Biomarkers, Tumor blood, CA-125 Antigen blood, Endometrial Neoplasms pathology
Abstract

Objective: To evaluate preoperative levels of CA-125 for the prediction of advanced stages of uterine cancer., Study Design: Retrospective chart review of 141 women with endometrial cancer who were treated by a single gynecologic oncologist at a community teaching hospital in North Carolina between November 1994 and September 2002., Results: Ninety-three of 106 patients (87.7%) with surgical stage I or II endometrial cancer had normal preoperative CA-125 levels. Ten of 11 (91%) women with stage IV endometrial cancer had elevated preoperative CA-125 levels. High CA-125 levels and positive lymph vascular space invasion correlated most strongly with advanced stage (p < 0.01). Similar trends in correlation of CA-125 levels were seen with the highest grade and the deepest myometrial invasion. The sensitivity and specificity of a CA-125 cutoff level of 35 U/mL were 63% and 88%, respectively, with a positive predictive value of 61% and negative predictive value of 89%., Conclusion: Measurement of preoperative CA-125 is a clinically useful test in endometrial cancer patients. CA-125 appears to be a significant independent predictor of the extrauterine spread of disease and is a better predictor of disease than depth of invasion or grade. This evidence complements a growing body of literature that supports the strong relationship between CA-125 level and stage of disease. A CA-125 level should be included as part of the preoperative workup for all patients with endometrial cancer.

Published
2005

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