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171 results on '"Shi, Chunming"'

36. Dynamic assessment modelling for project portfolio benefits.

Author

Bai, Libiao, Sun, Yichen, Shi, Huijing, Shi, Chunming, Bai, Jieyu, and Han, Xiao

Subjects
DYNAMIC models, SYSTEM dynamics
Abstract

Project portfolio benefits (PPBs) are typically regarded as a key feature for successful project portfolios in practice. However, there is little prescriptive knowledge that offers guidance on how to tackle the realisation and improvement of PPBs. To narrow this research gap, we develop a systematic assessment model to analyse and optimize PPBs. Innovatively considering the recessive benefits resulting from synergies among different project components, four subsystems of PPBs are identified. Subsequently, by synthesizing the interrelations within and between subsystems, a system dynamics model is developed to assess PPBs dynamically. Then, a numerical example is adopted to validate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed model. It can be concluded that the model is exploitable in academia and practice. For academia, this study expands benefit management tools and provides a theoretical basis for project portfolio benefit optimization. For practitioners, the straightforward model and procedure contribute to enhancing the management of PPBs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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37. Variations in the probability distribution function of air temperature anomalies in winter and summer from 1961 to 2016 over China.

Author

Wu, Guocan, Tian, Yuan, Gong, Fang, Du, Jizeng, and Shi, Chunming

Subjects
ATMOSPHERIC temperature, DISTRIBUTION (Probability theory), METEOROLOGICAL stations, METEOROLOGICAL observations, CLIMATE extremes, WINTER, SUMMER
Abstract

The rising of near‐surface air temperature is the most obvious manifestation of global warming. The analysis of the probability distribution function (PDF) of temperature can deep our understanding of the current characteristics of climate and extreme temperature changes. In this study, the daily maximum, minimum and mean temperature observations from meteorological stations are analysed to construct the temperature anomaly PDF during 1961–2016 over China. The skewness and kurtosis of the PDF are compared between the 1961–1990 and 1991–2016 periods. The non‐Gaussian tails of the PDF are also identified to qualify the deviation of the temperature probability density curve. The results show that near‐surface air temperature in China increased during the recent decades. The daily minimum temperature increased more than the daily maximum temperature did, while the temperature increase in winter was larger than that in summer. The largest increase detected was 1.29°C for the daily minimum temperature in winter, contrasting with the smallest increase of 0.51°C recorded for the daily minimum temperature in summer between the two study periods. The temperature anomaly PDF generally presented a positive skewness in winter and a slightly negative skewness in summer. Obvious non‐Gaussian tails in the temperature anomaly PDF were present in the majority of the study sites. Most areas showed a short cold tail in winter (except for southwestern China), and long cold tails were mainly observed in summer. These results can improve our understanding of the variation of extreme temperatures, and of the responses to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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