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The main goal of this paper is to describe an axiomatic utility theory for Dempster-Shafer belief function lotteries. The axiomatic framework used is analogous to von Neumann-Morgenstern's utility theory for probabilistic lotteries as described by Luce and Raiffa. Unlike the probabilistic case, our axiomatic framework leads to interval-valued utilities, and therefore, to a partial (incomplete) preference order on the set of all belief function lotteries. If the belief function reference lotteries we use are Bayesian belief functions, then our representation theorem coincides with Jaffray's representation theorem for his linear utility theory for belief functions. We illustrate our representation theorem using some examples discussed in the literature, and we propose a simple model for assessing utilities based on an interval-valued pessimism index representing a decision-maker's attitude to ambiguity and indeterminacy. Finally, we compare our decision theory with those proposed by Jaffray, Smets, Dubois et al., Giang and Shenoy, and Shafer.

This is the Proceedings of the Thirteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, which was held in Providence, RI, August 1-3, 1997

In this paper, we describe a scheme for propagating belief functions in certain kinds of trees using only local computations. This scheme generalizes the computational scheme proposed by Shafer and Logan1 for diagnostic trees of the type studied by Gordon and Shortliffe, and the slightly more general scheme given by Shafer for hierarchical evidence. It also generalizes the scheme proposed by Pearl for Bayesian causal trees (see Shenoy and Shafer). Pearl's causal trees and Gordon and Shortliffe's diagnostic trees are both ways of breaking the evidence that bears on a large problem down into smaller items of evidence that bear on smaller parts of the problem so that these smaller problems can be dealt with one at a time. This localization of effort is often essential in order to make the process of probability judgment feasible, both for the person who is making probability judgments and for the machine that is combining them. The basic structure for our scheme is a type of tree that generalizes both Pearl's and Gordon and Shortliffe's trees. Trees of this general type permit localized computation in Pearl's sense. They are based on qualitative judgments of conditional independence. We believe that the scheme we describe here will prove useful in expert systems. It is now clear that the successful propagation of probabilities or certainty factors in expert systems requires much more structure than can be provided in a pure production-system framework. Bayesian schemes, on the other hand, often make unrealistic demands for structure. The propagation of belief functions in trees and more general networks stands on a middle ground where some sensible and useful things can be done. We would like to emphasize that the basic idea of local computation for propagating probabilities is due to Judea Pearl. It is a very innovative idea; we do not believe that it can be found in the Bayesian literature prior to Pearl's work. We see our contribution as extending the usefulness of Pearl's idea by generalizing it from Bayesian probabilities to belief functions. In the next section, we give a brief introduction to belief functions. The notions of qualitative independence for partitions and a qualitative Markov tree are introduced in Section III. Finally, in Section IV, we describe a scheme for propagating belief functions in qualitative Markov trees., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Second Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1986)

Modifiable combining functions are a synthesis of two common approaches to combining evidence. They offer many of the advantages of these approaches and avoid some disadvantages. Because they facilitate the acquisition, representation, explanation, and modification of knowledge about combinations of evidence, they are proposed as a tool for knowledge engineers who build systems that reason under uncertainty, not as a normative theory of evidence., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Third Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1987)

In this paper, we describe an abstract framework and axioms under which exact local computation of marginals is possible. The primitive objects of the framework are variables and valuations. The primitive operators of the framework are combination and marginalization. These operate on valuations. We state three axioms for these operators and we derive the possibility of local computation from the axioms. Next, we describe a propagation scheme for computing marginals of a valuation when we have a factorization of the valuation on a hypertree. Finally we show how the problem of computing marginals of joint probability distributions and joint belief functions fits the general framework., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Fourth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1988)

This paper describes valuation-based systems for representing and solving discrete optimization problems. In valuation-based systems, we represent information in an optimization problem using variables, sample spaces of variables, a set of values, and functions that map sample spaces of sets of variables to the set of values. The functions, called valuations, represent the factors of an objective function. Solving the optimization problem involves using two operations called combination and marginalization. Combination tells us how to combine the factors of the joint objective function. Marginalization is either maximization or minimization. Solving an optimization problem can be simply described as finding the marginal of the joint objective function for the empty set. We state some simple axioms that combination and marginalization need to satisfy to enable us to solve an optimization problem using local computation. For optimization problems, the solution method of valuation-based systems reduces to non-serial dynamic programming. Thus our solution method for VBS can be regarded as an abstract description of dynamic programming. And our axioms can be viewed as conditions that permit the use of dynamic programming., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Sixth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1990)

This paper proposes a new method for solving Bayesian decision problems. The method consists of representing a Bayesian decision problem as a valuation-based system and applying a fusion algorithm for solving it. The fusion algorithm is a hybrid of local computational methods for computation of marginals of joint probability distributions and the local computational methods for discrete optimization problems., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Seventh Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1991)

This paper introduces the notions of independence and conditional independence in valuation-based systems (VBS). VBS is an axiomatic framework capable of representing many different uncertainty calculi. We define independence and conditional independence in terms of factorization of the joint valuation. The definitions of independence and conditional independence in VBS generalize the corresponding definitions in probability theory. Our definitions apply not only to probability theory, but also to Dempster-Shafer's belief-function theory, Spohn's epistemic-belief theory, and Zadeh's possibility theory. In fact, they apply to any uncertainty calculi that fit in the framework of valuation-based systems., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1992)

Valuation networks have been proposed as graphical representations of valuation-based systems (VBSs). The VBS framework is able to capture many uncertainty calculi including probability theory, Dempster-Shafer's belief-function theory, Spohn's epistemic belief theory, and Zadeh's possibility theory. In this paper, we show how valuation networks encode conditional independence relations. For the probabilistic case, the class of probability models encoded by valuation networks includes undirected graph models, directed acyclic graph models, directed balloon graph models, and recursive causal graph models., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1993)

The main goal of this paper is to describe a new pruning method for solving decision trees and game trees. The pruning method for decision trees suggests a slight variant of decision trees that we call scenario trees. In scenario trees, we do not need a conditional probability for each edge emanating from a chance node. Instead, we require a joint probability for each path from the root node to a leaf node. We compare the pruning method to the traditional rollback method for decision trees and game trees. For problems that require Bayesian revision of probabilities, a scenario tree representation with the pruning method is more efficient than a decision tree representation with the rollback method. For game trees, the pruning method is more efficient than the rollback method., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Eleventh Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1995)

The main goal of this paper is to describe a data structure called binary join trees that are useful in computing multiple marginals efficiently using the Shenoy-Shafer architecture. We define binary join trees, describe their utility, and sketch a procedure for constructing them., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twelfth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1996)

In the last decade, several architectures have been proposed for exact computation of marginals using local computation. In this paper, we compare three architectures - Lauritzen-Spiegelhalter, Hugin, and Shenoy-Shafer - from the perspective of graphical structure for message propagation, message-passing scheme, computational efficiency, and storage efficiency., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Fourteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1998)

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between probability and Spohn's theory for representation of uncertain beliefs. Using the intuitive idea that the more probable a proposition is, the more believable it is, we study transformations from probability to Sphonian disbelief and vice-versa. The transformations described in this paper are different from those described in the literature. In particular, the former satisfies the principles of ordinal congruence while the latter does not. Such transformations between probability and Spohn's calculi can contribute to (1) a clarification of the semantics of nonprobabilistic degree of uncertain belief, and (2) to a construction of a decision theory for such calculi. In practice, the transformations will allow a meaningful combination of more than one calculus in different stages of using an expert system such as knowledge acquisition, inference, and interpretation of results., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Fifteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1999)

In this paper, we formulate a qualitative "linear" utility theory for lotteries in which uncertainty is expressed qualitatively using a Spohnian disbelief function. We argue that a rational decision maker facing an uncertain decision problem in which the uncertainty is expressed qualitatively should behave so as to maximize "qualitative expected utility." Our axiomatization of the qualitative utility is similar to the axiomatization developed by von Neumann and Morgenstern for probabilistic lotteries. We compare our results with other recent results in qualitative decision making., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Sixteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2000)

In this paper we analyze two recent axiomatic approaches proposed by Dubois et al and by Giang and Shenoy to qualitative decision making where uncertainty is described by possibility theory. Both axiomtizations are inspired by von Neumann and Morgenstern's system of axioms for the case of probability theory. We show that our approach naturally unifies two axiomatic systems that correspond respectively to pessimistic and optimistic decision criteria proposed by Dubois et al. The simplifying unification is achieved by (i) replacing axioms that are supposed to reflect two informational attitudes (uncertainty aversion and uncertainty attraction) by an axiom that imposes order on set of standard lotteries and (ii) using a binary utility scale in which each utility level is represented by a pair of numbers., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Seventeenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2001)

This paper presents a decision-theoretic approach to statistical inference that satisfies the likelihood principle (LP) without using prior information. Unlike the Bayesian approach, which also satisfies LP, we do not assume knowledge of the prior distribution of the unknown parameter. With respect to information that can be obtained from an experiment, our solution is more efficient than Wald's minimax solution.However, with respect to information assumed to be known before the experiment, our solution demands less input than the Bayesian solution., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Eighteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2002)

This paper studies decision making for Walley's partially consonant belief functions (pcb). In a pcb, the set of foci are partitioned. Within each partition, the foci are nested. The pcb class includes probability functions and possibility functions as extreme cases. Unlike earlier proposals for a decision theory with belief functions, we employ an axiomatic approach. We adopt an axiom system similar in spirit to von Neumann - Morgenstern's linear utility theory for a preference relation on pcb lotteries. We prove a representation theorem for this relation. Utility for a pcb lottery is a combination of linear utility for probabilistic lottery and binary utility for possibilistic lottery., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Nineteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2003)

By elaborating on the notion of linear belief functions (Dempster 1990; Liu 1996), we propose an elementary approach to knowledge representation for expert systems using linear belief functions. We show how to use basic matrices to represent market information and financial knowledge, including complete ignorance, statistical observations, subjective speculations, distributional assumptions, linear relations, and empirical asset pricing models. We then appeal to Dempster's rule of combination to integrate the knowledge for assessing an overall belief of portfolio performance, and updating the belief by incorporating additional information. We use an example of three gold stocks to illustrate the approach., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Nineteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2003)

Mixtures of truncated exponentials (MTE) potentials are an alternative to discretization for representing continuous chance variables in influence diagrams. Also, MTE potentials can be used to approximate utility functions. This paper introduces MTE influence diagrams, which can represent decision problems without restrictions on the relationships between continuous and discrete chance variables, without limitations on the distributions of continuous chance variables, and without limitations on the nature of the utility functions. In MTE influence diagrams, all probability distributions and the joint utility function (or its multiplicative factors) are represented by MTE potentials and decision nodes are assumed to have discrete state spaces. MTE influence diagrams are solved by variable elimination using a fusion algorithm., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twentieth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2004)

When a hybrid Bayesian network has conditionally deterministic variables with continuous parents, the joint density function for the continuous variables does not exist. Conditional linear Gaussian distributions can handle such cases when the continuous variables have a multi-variate normal distribution and the discrete variables do not have continuous parents. In this paper, operations required for performing inference with conditionally deterministic variables in hybrid Bayesian networks are developed. These methods allow inference in networks with deterministic variables where continuous variables may be non-Gaussian, and their density functions can be approximated by mixtures of truncated exponentials. There are no constraints on the placement of continuous and discrete nodes in the network., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twenty-First Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2005)

The main goal of this paper is to describe a method for exact inference in general hybrid Bayesian networks (BNs) (with a mixture of discrete and continuous chance variables). Our method consists of approximating general hybrid Bayesian networks by a mixture of Gaussians (MoG) BNs. There exists a fast algorithm by Lauritzen-Jensen (LJ) for making exact inferences in MoG Bayesian networks, and there exists a commercial implementation of this algorithm. However, this algorithm can only be used for MoG BNs. Some limitations of such networks are as follows. All continuous chance variables must have conditional linear Gaussian distributions, and discrete chance nodes cannot have continuous parents. The methods described in this paper will enable us to use the LJ algorithm for a bigger class of hybrid Bayesian networks. This includes networks with continuous chance nodes with non-Gaussian distributions, networks with no restrictions on the topology of discrete and continuous variables, networks with conditionally deterministic variables that are a nonlinear function of their continuous parents, and networks with continuous chance variables whose variances are functions of their parents., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twenty-Second Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2006)

We describe a framework and an algorithm for solving hybrid influence diagrams with discrete, continuous, and deterministic chance variables, and discrete and continuous decision variables. A continuous chance variable in an influence diagram is said to be deterministic if its conditional distributions have zero variances. The solution algorithm is an extension of Shenoy's fusion algorithm for discrete influence diagrams. We describe an extended Shenoy-Shafer architecture for propagation of discrete, continuous, and utility potentials in hybrid influence diagrams that include deterministic chance variables. The algorithm and framework are illustrated by solving two small examples., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twenty-Sixth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2010)