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This paper investigates the accuracy of generative models and the impact of knowledge transfer on their generation precision. Specifically, we examine a generative model for a target task, fine-tuned using a pre-trained model from a source task. Building on the "Shared Embedding" concept, which bridges the source and target tasks, we introduce a novel framework for transfer learning under distribution metrics such as the Kullback-Leibler divergence. This framework underscores the importance of leveraging inherent similarities between diverse tasks despite their distinct data distributions. Our theory suggests that the shared structures can augment the generation accuracy for a target task, reliant on the capability of a source model to identify shared structures and effective knowledge transfer from source to target learning. To demonstrate the practical utility of this framework, we explore the theoretical implications for two specific generative models: diffusion and normalizing flows. The results show enhanced performance in both models over their non-transfer counterparts, indicating advancements for diffusion models and providing fresh insights into normalizing flows in transfer and non-transfer settings. These results highlight the significant contribution of knowledge transfer in boosting the generation capabilities of these models.

This paper presents FlowSUM, a normalizing flows-based variational encoder-decoder framework for Transformer-based summarization. Our approach tackles two primary challenges in variational summarization: insufficient semantic information in latent representations and posterior collapse during training. To address these challenges, we employ normalizing flows to enable flexible latent posterior modeling, and we propose a controlled alternate aggressive training (CAAT) strategy with an improved gate mechanism. Experimental results show that FlowSUM significantly enhances the quality of generated summaries and unleashes the potential for knowledge distillation with minimal impact on inference time. Furthermore, we investigate the issue of posterior collapse in normalizing flows and analyze how the summary quality is affected by the training strategy, gate initialization, and the type and number of normalizing flows used, offering valuable insights for future research.

Synthetic data generation, a cornerstone of Generative Artificial Intelligence, promotes a paradigm shift in data science by addressing data scarcity and privacy while enabling unprecedented performance. As synthetic data becomes more prevalent, concerns emerge regarding the accuracy of statistical methods when applied to synthetic data in contrast to raw data. This article explores the effectiveness of statistical methods on synthetic data and the privacy risks of synthetic data. Regarding effectiveness, we present the Synthetic Data Generation for Analytics framework. This framework applies statistical approaches to high-quality synthetic data produced by generative models like tabular diffusion models, which, initially trained on raw data, benefit from insights from pertinent studies through transfer learning. A key finding within this framework is the generational effect, which reveals that the error rate of statistical methods on synthetic data decreases with the addition of more synthetic data but may eventually rise or stabilize. This phenomenon, stemming from the challenge of accurately mirroring raw data distributions, highlights a "reflection point"-an ideal volume of synthetic data defined by specific error metrics. Through three case studies, sentiment analysis, predictive modeling of structured data, and inference in tabular data, we validate the superior performance of this framework compared to conventional approaches. On privacy, synthetic data imposes lower risks while supporting the differential privacy standard. These studies underscore synthetic data's untapped potential in redefining data science's landscape.

This article presents a novel method for causal discovery with generalized structural equation models suited for analyzing diverse types of outcomes, including discrete, continuous, and mixed data. Causal discovery often faces challenges due to unmeasured confounders that hinder the identification of causal relationships. The proposed approach addresses this issue by developing two peeling algorithms (bottom-up and top-down) to ascertain causal relationships and valid instruments. This approach first reconstructs a super-graph to represent ancestral relationships between variables, using a peeling algorithm based on nodewise GLM regressions that exploit relationships between primary and instrumental variables. Then, it estimates parent-child effects from the ancestral relationships using another peeling algorithm while deconfounding a child's model with information borrowed from its parents' models. The article offers a theoretical analysis of the proposed approach, which establishes conditions for model identifiability and provides statistical guarantees for accurately discovering parent-child relationships via the peeling algorithms. Furthermore, the article presents numerical experiments showcasing the effectiveness of our approach in comparison to state-of-the-art structure learning methods without confounders. Lastly, it demonstrates an application to Alzheimer's disease (AD), highlighting the utility of the method in constructing gene-to-gene and gene-to-disease regulatory networks involving Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) for healthy and AD subjects.

This article proposes a novel causal discovery and inference method called GrIVET for a Gaussian directed acyclic graph with unmeasured confounders. GrIVET consists of an order-based causal discovery method and a likelihood-based inferential procedure. For causal discovery, we generalize the existing peeling algorithm to estimate the ancestral relations and candidate instruments in the presence of hidden confounders. Based on this, we propose a new procedure for instrumental variable estimation of each direct effect by separating it from any mediation effects. For inference, we develop a new likelihood ratio test of multiple causal effects that is able to account for the unmeasured confounders. Theoretically, we prove that the proposed method has desirable guarantees, including robustness to invalid instruments and uncertain interventions, estimation consistency, low-order polynomial time complexity, and validity of asymptotic inference. Numerically, GrIVET performs well and compares favorably against state-of-the-art competitors. Furthermore, we demonstrate the utility and effectiveness of the proposed method through an application inferring regulatory pathways from Alzheimer's disease gene expression data., Comment: 27 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables. The manuscript is accepted by Journal of the American Statistical Association

The dynamic ranking, due to its increasing importance in many applications, is becoming crucial, especially with the collection of voluminous time-dependent data. One such application is sports statistics, where dynamic ranking aids in forecasting the performance of competitive teams, drawing on historical and current data. Despite its usefulness, predicting and inferring rankings pose challenges in environments necessitating time-dependent modeling. This paper introduces a spectral ranker called Kernel Rank Centrality, designed to rank items based on pairwise comparisons over time. The ranker operates via kernel smoothing in the Bradley-Terry model, utilizing a Markov chain model. Unlike the maximum likelihood approach, the spectral ranker is nonparametric, demands fewer model assumptions and computations, and allows for real-time ranking. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the ranker by applying an innovative group inverse technique, resulting in a uniform and precise entrywise expansion. This result allows us to devise a new inferential method for predictive inference, previously unavailable in existing approaches. Our numerical examples showcase the ranker's utility in predictive accuracy and constructing an uncertainty measure for prediction, leveraging data from the National Basketball Association (NBA). The results underscore our method's potential compared to the gold standard in sports, the Arpad Elo rating system.

This paper introduces a novel Perturbation-Assisted Inference (PAI) framework utilizing synthetic data generated by the Perturbation-Assisted Sample Synthesis (PASS) method. The framework focuses on uncertainty quantification in complex data scenarios, particularly involving unstructured data while utilizing deep learning models. On one hand, PASS employs a generative model to create synthetic data that closely mirrors raw data while preserving its rank properties through data perturbation, thereby enhancing data diversity and bolstering privacy. By incorporating knowledge transfer from large pre-trained generative models, PASS enhances estimation accuracy, yielding refined distributional estimates of various statistics via Monte Carlo experiments. On the other hand, PAI boasts its statistically guaranteed validity. In pivotal inference, it enables precise conclusions even without prior knowledge of the pivotal's distribution. In non-pivotal situations, we enhance the reliability of synthetic data generation by training it with an independent holdout sample. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PAI in advancing uncertainty quantification in complex, data-driven tasks by applying it to diverse areas such as image synthesis, sentiment word analysis, multimodal inference, and the construction of prediction intervals.

This article introduces a causal discovery method to learn nonlinear relationships in a directed acyclic graph with correlated Gaussian errors due to confounding. First, we derive model identifiability under the sublinear growth assumption. Then, we propose a novel method, named the Deconfounded Functional Structure Estimation (DeFuSE), consisting of a deconfounding adjustment to remove the confounding effects and a sequential procedure to estimate the causal order of variables. We implement DeFuSE via feedforward neural networks for scalable computation. Moreover, we establish the consistency of DeFuSE under an assumption called the strong causal minimality. In simulations, DeFuSE compares favorably against state-of-the-art competitors that ignore confounding or nonlinearity. Finally, we demonstrate the utility and effectiveness of the proposed approach with an application to gene regulatory network analysis. The Python implementation is available at https://github.com/chunlinli/defuse., Comment: 28 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables

In explainable artificial intelligence, discriminative feature localization is critical to reveal a blackbox model's decision-making process from raw data to prediction. In this article, we use two real datasets, the MNIST handwritten digits and MIT-BIH Electrocardiogram (ECG) signals, to motivate key characteristics of discriminative features, namely adaptiveness, predictive importance and effectiveness. Then, we develop a localization framework based on adversarial attacks to effectively localize discriminative features. In contrast to existing heuristic methods, we also provide a statistically guaranteed interpretability of the localized features by measuring a generalized partial $R^2$. We apply the proposed method to the MNIST dataset and the MIT-BIH dataset with a convolutional auto-encoder. In the first, the compact image regions localized by the proposed method are visually appealing. Similarly, in the second, the identified ECG features are biologically plausible and consistent with cardiac electrophysiological principles while locating subtle anomalies in a QRS complex that may not be discernible by the naked eye. Overall, the proposed method compares favorably with state-of-the-art competitors. Accompanying this paper is a Python library dnn-locate (https://dnn-locate.readthedocs.io/en/latest/) that implements the proposed approach., Comment: 27 pages, 11 figures

Large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have offered an exciting opportunity to discover putative causal genes or risk factors associated with diseases by using SNPs as instrumental variables (IVs). However, conventional approaches assume linear causal relations partly for simplicity and partly for the availability of GWAS summary data. In this work, we propose a novel model {for transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS)} to incorporate nonlinear relationships across IVs, an exposure/gene, and an outcome, which is robust against violations of the valid IV assumptions, permits the use of GWAS summary data, and covers two-stage least squares as a special case. We decouple the estimation of a marginal causal effect and a nonlinear transformation, where the former is estimated via sliced inverse regression and a sparse instrumental variable regression, and the latter is estimated by a ratio-adjusted inverse regression. On this ground, we propose an inferential procedure. An application of the proposed method to the ADNI gene expression data and the IGAP GWAS summary data identifies 18 causal genes associated with Alzheimer's disease, including APOE and TOMM40, in addition to 7 other genes missed by two-stage least squares considering only linear relationships. Our findings suggest that nonlinear modeling is required to unleash the power of IV regression for identifying potentially nonlinear gene-trait associations. Accompanying this paper is our Python library \texttt{nl-causal} (\url{https://nonlinear-causal.readthedocs.io/}) that implements the proposed method., Comment: 33 pages, 11 figures

Differential privacy is becoming one gold standard for protecting the privacy of publicly shared data. It has been widely used in social science, data science, public health, information technology, and the U.S. decennial census. Nevertheless, to guarantee differential privacy, existing methods may unavoidably alter the conclusion of the original data analysis, as privatization often changes the sample distribution. This phenomenon is known as the trade-off between privacy protection and statistical accuracy. In this work, we mitigate this trade-off by developing a distribution-invariant privatization (DIP) method to reconcile both high statistical accuracy and strict differential privacy. As a result, any downstream statistical or machine learning task yields essentially the same conclusion as if one used the original data. Numerically, under the same strictness of privacy protection, DIP achieves superior statistical accuracy in a wide range of simulation studies and real-world benchmarks.

Statistical inference of directed relations given some unspecified interventions (i.e., the intervention targets are unknown) is challenging. In this article, we test hypothesized directed relations with unspecified interventions. First, we derive conditions to yield an identifiable model. Unlike classical inference, testing directed relations requires identifying the ancestors and relevant interventions of hypothesis-specific primary variables. To this end, we propose a peeling algorithm based on nodewise regressions to establish a topological order of primary variables. Moreover, we prove that the peeling algorithm yields a consistent estimator in low-order polynomial time. Second, we propose a likelihood ratio test integrated with a data perturbation scheme to account for the uncertainty of identifying ancestors and interventions. Also, we show that the distribution of a data perturbation test statistic converges to the target distribution. Numerical examples demonstrate the utility and effectiveness of the proposed methods, including an application to infer gene regulatory networks. The R implementation is available at https://github.com/chunlinli/intdag., Comment: 48 pages, 13 figures

A recommender system learns to predict the user-specific preference or intention over many items simultaneously for all users, making personalized recommendations based on a relatively small number of observations. One central issue is how to leverage three-way interactions, referred to as user-item-stage dependencies on a monotonic chain of events, to enhance the prediction accuracy. A monotonic chain of events occurs, for instance, in an article sharing dataset, where a ``follow'' action implies a ``like'' action, which in turn implies a ``view'' action. In this article, we develop a multistage recommender system utilizing a two-level monotonic property characterizing a monotonic chain of events for personalized prediction. Particularly, we derive a large-margin classifier based on a nonnegative additive latent factor model in the presence of a high percentage of missing observations, particularly between stages, reducing the number of model parameters for personalized prediction while guaranteeing prediction consistency. On this ground, we derive a regularized cost function to learn user-specific behaviors at different stages, linking decision functions to numerical and categorical covariates to model user-item-stage interactions. Computationally, we derive an algorithm based on blockwise coordinate descent. Theoretically, we show that the two-level monotonic property enhances the accuracy of learning as compared to a standard method treating each stage individually and an ordinal method utilizing only one-level monotonicity. Finally, the proposed method compares favorably with existing methods in simulations and an article sharing dataset.

An exciting recent development is the uptake of deep neural networks in many scientific fields, where the main objective is outcome prediction with the black-box nature. Significance testing is promising to address the black-box issue and explore novel scientific insights and interpretation of the decision-making process based on a deep learning model. However, testing for a neural network poses a challenge because of its black-box nature and unknown limiting distributions of parameter estimates while existing methods require strong assumptions or excessive computation. In this article, we derive one-split and two-split tests relaxing the assumptions and computational complexity of existing black-box tests and extending to examine the significance of a collection of features of interest in a dataset of possibly a complex type such as an image. The one-split test estimates and evaluates a black-box model based on estimation and inference subsets through sample splitting and data perturbation. The two-split test further splits the inference subset into two but require no perturbation. Also, we develop their combined versions by aggregating the p-values based on repeated sample splitting. By deflating the bias-sd-ratio, we establish asymptotic null distributions of the test statistics and the consistency in terms of Type II error. Numerically, we demonstrate the utility of the proposed tests on seven simulated examples and six real datasets. Accompanying this paper is our Python library dnn-inference (https://dnn-inference.readthedocs.io/en/latest/) that implements the proposed tests., Comment: Accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems

Recommender systems have been widely adopted by electronic commerce and entertainment industries for individualized prediction and recommendation, which benefit consumers and improve business intelligence. In this article, we propose an innovative method, namely the recommendation engine of multilayers (REM), for tensor recommender systems. The proposed method utilizes the structure of a tensor response to integrate information from multiple modes, and creates an additional layer of nested latent factors to accommodate between-subjects dependency. One major advantage is that the proposed method is able to address the "cold-start" issue in the absence of information from new customers, new products or new contexts. Specifically, it provides more effective recommendations through sub-group information. To achieve scalable computation, we develop a new algorithm for the proposed method, which incorporates a maximum block improvement strategy into the cyclic blockwise-coordinate-descent algorithm. In theory, we investigate both algorithmic properties for global and local convergence, along with the asymptotic consistency of estimated parameters. Finally, the proposed method is applied in simulations and IRI marketing data with 116 million observations of product sales. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms existing competitors in the literature., Comment: Accepted by the Annals of Statistics

When a vehicle observes another one, the two vehicles' poses are correlated by this spatial relative observation, which can be used in cooperative localization for further increasing localization accuracy and precision. To use spatial relative observations, we propose to add them into a pose graph for optimal pose estimation. Before adding them, we need to know the identities of the observed vehicles. The vehicle identification is formulated as a linear assignment problem, which can be solved efficiently. By using pose graph techniques and the start-of-the-art factor composition/decomposition method, our cooperative localization algorithm is robust against communication delay, packet loss, and out-of-sequence packet reception. We demonstrate the usability of our framework and effectiveness of our algorithm through both simulations and real-world experiments using three vehicles on the road.

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating multiple graphical models simultaneously using the fused lasso penalty, which encourages adjacent graphs to share similar structures. A motivating example is the analysis of brain networks of Alzheimer's disease using neuroimaging data. Specifically, we may wish to estimate a brain network for the normal controls (NC), a brain network for the patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and a brain network for Alzheimer's patients (AD). We expect the two brain networks for NC and MCI to share common structures but not to be identical to each other; similarly for the two brain networks for MCI and AD. The proposed formulation can be solved using a second-order method. Our key technical contribution is to establish the necessary and sufficient condition for the graphs to be decomposable. Based on this key property, a simple screening rule is presented, which decomposes the large graphs into small subgraphs and allows an efficient estimation of multiple independent (small) subgraphs, dramatically reducing the computational cost. We perform experiments on both synthetic and real data; our results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

Sparse feature selection has been demonstrated to be effective in handling high-dimensional data. While promising, most of the existing works use convex methods, which may be suboptimal in terms of the accuracy of feature selection and parameter estimation. In this paper, we expand a nonconvex paradigm to sparse group feature selection, which is motivated by applications that require identifying the underlying group structure and performing feature selection simultaneously. The main contributions of this article are twofold: (1) statistically, we introduce a nonconvex sparse group feature selection model which can reconstruct the oracle estimator. Therefore, consistent feature selection and parameter estimation can be achieved; (2) computationally, we propose an efficient algorithm that is applicable to large-scale problems. Numerical results suggest that the proposed nonconvex method compares favorably against its competitors on synthetic data and real-world applications, thus achieving desired goal of delivering high performance., Comment: Accepted by the 30th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2013)