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Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed seismicity, constrained by earthquake‐clustering statistics. Comprehensive datasets on both hazard scales have been integrated into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from multievent sequences of complex faulting. This article gives an overview of UCERF3, illustrates the short‐term probabilities with aftershock scenarios, and draws some valuable scientific conclusions from the modeling results. In particular, seismic, geologic, and geodetic data, when combined in the UCERF3 framework, reject two types of fault‐based models: long‐term forecasts constrained to have local Gutenberg–Richter scaling, and short‐term forecasts that lack stress relaxation by elastic rebound.

We introduce a new model which both generates a self-organizing complex segmented fault system which then accommodates finite strain, and generates sequences of elastodynamic events on that complex fault system. This opens up a new realm of study of populations of cascading elastodynamic ruptures on complex fault systems. We examine the distribution of sizes of events in the model, and its dependence on fault geometry. We see an evolution from a more Gutenberg-Richter like distribution of events at smaller strains to a more characteristic like distribution at larger strains. We see relative insensitivity of the distribution of sizes of events to the friction used. Examining the distributions of sizes of events on fault segments of different lengths, we find support for a modified segmentation hypothesis whereby segments both break in power law small events and occasionally participate in cascading multisegment larger ruptures, but also predominantly break as a unit.

Observations show that an earthquake can affect aseismic slip behavior of nearby faults and produce “triggered aseismic fault slip.” Two types of stress changes are often examined by researchers as possible triggering sources. One is the static stress change associated with the faulting process and the other is the dynamic stress change or transient deformation generated by the passage of seismic waves. No consensus has been reached, however, regarding the mechanism(s) of triggered aseismic fault slip. We evaluate the possible triggering role of static stress changes by examining observations made after 10 large earthquakes in California. Most of the nearby fault segments that slipped aseismically were encouraged to move by the imposed positive changes in static Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS). Nonetheless, three discrepancies or failures with this model exist, which implies that static stress triggering either is or is not the sole mechanism causing the observed triggered slip. We then use a spring-slider system as a simplified fault model to study its slip behavior and the impact of transient (dynamic) loading on it. We show that a two-state-variable rate-dependent and state-dependent frictional law can generate creep events. Transient loads are then put into the system. Certain types of them can cause a large time advance of (or trigger) the next creep event. While our work examines triggered creep events near the surface, it may well have implications for the occurrence of similar events near the bottom of the seismogenic zone where a transition in frictional stability occurs.

We examine the radiated waves emitted by events on a model fault. The model deterministically produces a complex sequence of events, with a wide range of sizes, from a uniform frictional instability. The spontaneous rupture events emit a rich spectrum of radiated waves as they nucleate, propagate, and decelerate within the complex stress field left by previous events. Two model innovations, a new driving boundary condition on the fault and a new radiating boundary condition which allows a spatially varying prestress away from the fault, allow us to directly measure the radiation without problems from boundary reflections in our two-dimensional model. We quantify the radiation by first measuring the energy spectral density and then averaging over events of a similar size to examine the magnitude dependence. Assuming only a physics of the tractions on the fault, we obtain a full spectra of radiated waves for a complex population of events with a wide range of sizes. To quantify the resulting spectra, we consider two different spectral measures. One, the peak amplitude of the spectral energy density, occurs at a period which scales with the rupture length and corresponds with the classical corner frequency measurement. The other, the peak amplitude of the spectral average acceleration or the low-frequency corner in the case of a flat acceleration spectrum, occurs at a period that scales with the duration of slip of points on the fault. The period of the peak spectral acceleration saturates for large events. Looking at the rupture motions on the fault, we find that this spectral behavior corresponds with the behavior of slip pulses in the model. Intense narrow pulses of slip develop for very long rupture events. We quantify this by measuring the mean slip duration as a function of rupture length and show that it is has the same behavior as the peak period of spectral acceleration. Thus the duration of the slip pulses in these ruptures is directly expressed in their radiated spectra. Moreover, we find that these corner periods exhibit a nontrivial dependence on event magnitude for the different frictional instabilities that we have examined, suggesting that any observed dependence of these corner periods on earthquake magnitude might provide insight into the frictional instability of earthquakes.

The recurrence intervals of repeating earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault in the Loma Prieta aftershock zone follow the characteristic 1/t decay of Omori's law. A model in which these earthquakes occur on isolated patches of the fault that fail in stick-slip with creep around them can explain this observation. In this model the recurrence interval is inversely proportional to the loading rate due to creep. Logarithmic velocity strengthening friction predicts 1/t decay in creep rate following the mainshock. The time dependence of recurrence is inconsistent with a simple viscous constitutive relationship, which predicts an exponential decay of loading rate. Thus, our observations imply postseismic slip at seismogenic depth under a power law rheology. The time dependence of postseismic deformation measured geodetically may be diagnostic of whether postseismic deformation is caused by creep or possible viscoelastic deformation at greater depths.

We study numerically the behavior of a two-dimensional elastic plate (a crustal plane) that terminates along one of its edges at a fault boundary. Slip-weakening friction at the boundary, inertial dynamics in the bulk, and uniform slow loading via elastic coupling to a substrate combine to produce a complex, deterministically chaotic sequence of slipping events. We observe a power-law distribution of small events and an excess of large events. For the small events, the moments scale with rupture length in a manner that is consistent with seismological observations. For the large events, rupture occurs in the form of narrow propagating pulses.