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Introduction: Adults with overweight and obesity are vulnerable to weight gain and mental health deterioration during the COVID-19 pandemic. We developed a web-based, guided self-help intervention based on Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) that aims to support adults with overweight and obesity to prevent weight gain by helping them to manage their eating behaviours, be more physically active and protect their emotional wellbeing (“SWiM-C”). SWiM-C is a guided self-help programme using non-specialist guides to enhance scalability and population reach while minimising cost. This study evaluated the effect of SWiM-C on bodyweight, eating behaviour, physical activity and mental wellbeing in adults with overweight and obesity over 4 months during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. Methods: We randomised adults (BMI≥25kg/m2) to SWiM-C or to a wait-list standard advice group. Participants completed outcome assessments online at baseline and 4 months. The primary outcome was self-measured weight; secondary outcomes were eating behaviour, physical activity, experiential avoidance/psychological flexibility, depression, anxiety, stress, and wellbeing. We estimated differences between study groups in change in outcomes from baseline to 4 months using linear regression, adjusted for outcome at baseline and the randomisation stratifiers (BMI, sex). The trial was pre-registered (ISRCTN12107048). Results: 486 participants were assessed for eligibility; 388 participants were randomised (196 standard advice, 192 SWiM-C) and 324 were analysed. The adjusted difference in weight between SWiM-C and standard advice was -0.60kg (-1.67 to 0.47, p=0.27). SWiM-C led to improvements in uncontrolled eating (-3.61 [-5.94 to -1.28]), cognitive restraint (5.28 [2.81 to 7.75]), experiential avoidance (-3.39 [-5.55 to -1.23]), and wellbeing (0.13 [0.07 to 0.18]). Conclusions: SWiM-C improved several psychological determinants of successful weight management and had a protective effect on wellbeing during the pandemic. However, differences in weight and some other outcomes were compatible with no effect of the intervention, suggesting further refinement of the intervention is needed.

Objective To determine whether there were changes in household purchases of drinks or confectionery one year after implementation of the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL). Design Controlled interrupted time series analysis. Participants Members of a commercial household purchasing panel (average weekly n=22183) resident in Great Britain, reporting from March 2014 ��� March 2019. Intervention a two tiered tax levied on manufacturers of soft drinks, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ���8g sugar/100ml (high tier) are taxed at ��0.24/litre, drinks with ���5, DP, OM, MW and JA are funded by the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, the Economic and Social Research Council, the Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research, and the Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged. This project was funded by the NIHR Public Health Research programme (Grant Nos. 16/49/01 and 16/130/01). The work was also supported by the Medical Research Council (grant numbers MC_UU_12015/1 and MC_UU_12015/6).

Objective: To determine whether provision of web-based lifestyle advice and coronary heart disease risk information either based on phenotypic characteristics or phenotypic plus genetic characteristics affects changes in objectively measured health behaviours. Methods: A parallel-group, open randomised trial including 956 male and female blood donors with no previous history of cardiovascular disease (mean [SD] age = 56.7 [8.8] years) randomised to four study groups: control group (no information provided); web-based lifestyle advice only (lifestyle group); lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year coronary heart disease risk based on phenotypic characteristics (phenotypic risk estimate) (phenotypic group); and lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year coronary heart disease risk based on phenotypic (phenotypic risk estimate) and genetic characteristics (genetic risk estimate) (genetic group). The primary outcome was change in physical activity from baseline to 12 weeks assessed by wrist-worn accelerometer. Results: 928 (97.1%) participants completed the trial. There was no evidence of intervention effects on physical activity (difference in adjusted mean change from baseline): lifestyle group vs control group 0.09 milligravity (mg) (95%CI: -1.15 to 1.33); genetic group vs phenotypic group -0.33 mg (-1.55 to 0.90); phenotypic group and genetic group vs control group -0.52 mg (-1.59 to 0.55); and vs lifestyle group -0.61 mg (-1.67 to 0.46). There was no evidence of intervention effects on secondary biological, emotional and health-related behavioural outcomes except self-reported fruit and vegetable intake. Conclusions: Provision of risk information, whether based on phenotypic or genotypic characteristics, alongside web-based lifestyle advice did not importantly affect objectively measured levels of physical activity, other health-related behaviours, biological risk factors or emotional well-being. Clinical Trial Registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17721237. Prospectively registered 12 January 2015. http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN17721237. Key words: cardiovascular disease; genetics; primary prevention; risk assessment; risk reduction behaviour, This work was supported by a European Commission Framework 7 EPIC-CVD Grant agreement no: 279233. NHS Blood and Transplant funded the INTERVAL trial. DNA extraction and genotyping in INTERVAL/INFORM was funded by the National Institute for Health Research. The coordinating team for INTERVAL/INFORM at the Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit of the University of Cambridge was supported by core funding from: UK Medical Research Council (G0800270), British Heart Foundation (SP/09/002), British Heart Foundation Cambridge Cardiovascular Centre of Excellence and UK National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre. BS was supported by the Medical Research Council [MC_UU_12015/4].

Highlights • We examined individuals with screen-detected diabetes over five years. • Two cardio-protective agents were prescribed at diagnosis, 3 at one year and 4 at five years. • Increases in cardio-protective medication did not impact negatively on HRQoL., Aims Establishing a balance between the benefits and harms of treatment is important among individuals with screen-detected diabetes, for whom the burden of treatment might be higher than the burden of the disease. We described the association between cardio-protective medication and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among individuals with screen-detected diabetes. Methods 867 participants with screen-detected diabetes underwent clinical measurements at diagnosis, one and five years. General HRQoL (EQ5D) was measured at baseline, one- and five-years, and diabetes-specific HRQoL (ADDQoL-AWI) and health status (SF-36) at one and five years. Multivariable linear regression was used to quantify the association between change in HRQoL and change in cardio-protective medication. Results The median (IQR) number of prescribed cardio-protective agents was 2 (1 to 3) at diagnosis, 3 (2 to 4) at one year and 4 (3 to 5) at five years. Change in cardio-protective medication was not associated with change in HRQoL from diagnosis to one year. From one year to five years, change in cardio-protective agents was not associated with change in the SF-36 mental health score. One additional agent was associated with an increase in the SF-36 physical health score (2.1; 95%CI 0.4, 3.8) and an increase in the EQ-5D (0.05; 95%CI 0.02, 0.08). Conversely, one additional agent was associated with a decrease in the ADDQoL-AWI (−0.32; 95%CI −0.51, −0.13), compared to no change. Conclusions We found little evidence that increases in the number of cardio-protective medications impacted negatively on HRQoL among individuals with screen-detected diabetes over five years.

Background: Combinations of multiple fatty acids may influence cardiometabolic risk more than single fatty acids. The association of a combination of fatty acids with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) has not been evaluated. Methods and findings: We measured plasma phospholipid fatty acids by gas-chromatography in 27,296 adults, including 12,132 incident cases of T2D over the follow-up period between baseline (1991-1998) to 2007 in eight European countries in EPIC-InterAct, a nested case-cohort study. Deriving the first principal component from 27 individual fatty acids (mol%) as the main exposure (subsequently described as the FA-pattern score), the FA-pattern score explained 16.1% of the overall variability of the 27 fatty acids, partly characterised by high concentrations of linoleic acid, stearic acid, odd-chain fatty acids, and very long-chain saturated fatty acids and low concentrations of γ- linolenic acid, palmitic acid, and long-chain monounsaturated fatty acids. Based on country-specific Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random-effects meta-analysis, the FA-pattern score was associated with lower incident T2D. Comparing the top to the bottom fifths of the score, the hazard ratio of incident T2D was 0.23 (95% confidence interval: 0.19-0.29) adjusted for potential confounders and 0.37 (0.27-0.50), further adjusted for cardiometabolic risk factors. The association changed little after adjustment for individual fatty acids or fatty acid subclasses. In cross-sectional analyses relating the FA-pattern score to metabolic, genetic, and dietary factors, the FA-pattern score was inversely associated with adiposity, triglycerides, liver enzymes, C-reactive protein, a genetic score representing insulin resistance, and dietary intakes of soft drinks and alcohol and positively associated with high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol and intakes of polyunsaturated fat, dietary fibre, and coffee (p

$\textbf{Purpose:}$ Leisure-screen-time, including TV viewing, is associated with increased mortality risk. We estimated the all-cause mortality risk reductions associated with substituting leisure-screen-time with different discretionary physical activity types, and the change in mortality incidence associated with different substitution scenarios. $\textbf{Methods:}$ 423,659 UK Biobank participants, without stroke, myocardial infarction or cancer history, were followed for 7.6 (1.4) (median (IQR)) years. They reported leisure-screen-time (TV watching and home computer use) and leisure/home activities, categorised as daily-life activities (walking for pleasure; light DIY; heavy DIY) and structured exercise (strenuous sports; other exercises). Iso-temporal substitution modelling in Cox regression provided hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for all-cause mortality when substituting screen-time (30 minutes/day) with different discretionary activity types of the same duration. Potential impact fractions (PIFs) estimated the proportional change in mortality incidence associated with different substitution scenarios. $\textbf{Results:}$ During 3,202,105 person-years of follow-up, 8,928 participants died. Each 30 minute/day difference in screen-time was associated with lower mortality hazard when modelling substitution of screen-time by an equal amount of daily-life activities (0.95 (0.94-0.97)), as well as structured exercise (0.87 (0.84-0.90)). Re-allocations from screen-time into specific activity subtypes suggested different reductions in mortality hazard (walking for pleasure (0.95 (0.92-0.98)), light DIY (0.97 (0.94-1.00)), heavy DIY (0.93 (0.90-0.96)), strenuous sports (0.87 (0.79-0.95)), other exercises (0.88 (0.84-0.91))). The lowest hazard estimates were found when modelling replacement of TV viewing. PIFs ranged from 4.3% (30 minute/day substitution of screen-time into light DIY) to 14.9% (TV viewing into strenuous sports). $\textbf{Conclusion:}$ Substantial public health benefits could be gained by replacing small amounts of screen-time with daily-life activities and structured exercise. Daily-life activities may provide feasible screen-time alternatives, if structured exercise is initially too ambitious.

Background: Gene-diet interactions have been reported to contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, to our knowledge, few examples have been consistently replicated to date. Objective: We aimed to identify existing evidence for gene-macronutrient interactions and T2D and to examine the reported interactions in a large-scale study. Design: We systematically reviewed studies reporting gene-macronutrient interactions and T2D. We searched the MEDLINE, Human Genome Epidemiology Network, and WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform electronic databases to identify studies published up to October 2015. Eligibility criteria included assessment of macronutrient quantity (e.g., total carbohydrate) or indicators of quality (e.g., dietary fiber) by use of self-report or objective biomarkers of intake. Interactions identified in the review were subsequently examined in the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer)-InterAct case-cohort study (n = 21,148, with 9403 T2D cases; 8 European countries). Prentice-weighted Cox regression was used to estimate country-specific HRs, 95% CIs, and P-interaction values, which were then pooled by random-effects meta-analysis. A primary model was fitted by using the same covariates as reported in the published studies, and a second model adjusted for additional covariates and estimated the effects of isocaloric macronutrient substitution. Results: Thirteen observational studies met the eligibility criteria (n < 1700 cases). Eight unique interactions were reported to be significant between macronutrients [carbohydrate, fat, saturated fat, dietary fiber, and glycemic load derived from self-report of dietary intake and circulating n–3 (ω-3) polyunsaturated fatty acids] and genetic variants in or near transcription factor 7–like 2 (TCF7L2), gastric inhibitory polypeptide receptor (GIPR), caveolin 2 (CAV2), and peptidase D (PEPD) (P-interaction < 0.05). We found no evidence of interaction when we tried to replicate previously reported interactions. In addition, no interactions were detected in models with additional covariates. Conclusions: Eight gene-macronutrient interactions were identified for the risk of T2D from the literature. These interactions were not replicated in the EPIC-InterAct study, which mirrored the analyses undertaken in the original reports. Our findings highlight the importance of independent replication of reported interactions.

Introduction Adolescent physical activity promotion is rarely effective, despite adolescence being critical for preventing physical activity decline. Low adolescent physical activity is likely to last into adulthood, increasing health risks. The Get Others Active (GoActive) intervention is evidence-based and was developed iteratively with adolescents and teachers. This intervention aims to increase physical activity through increased peer support, self-efficacy, group cohesion, self-esteem and friendship quality, and is implemented using a tiered-leadership system. We previously established feasibility in one school and conducted a pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT) in three schools. Methods and analysis We will conduct a school-based cluster RCT (CRCT) in 16 secondary schools targeting all year 9 students (n=2400). In eight schools, GoActive will run for two terms: weekly facilitation support from a council-funded intervention facilitator will be offered in term 1, with more distant support in term 2. Tutor groups choose two weekly activities, encouraged by older adolescent mentors and weekly peer leaders. Students gain points for trying new activities; points are entered into a between-class competition. Outcomes will be assessed at baseline, interim (week 6), postintervention (week 14–16) and 10-month follow-up (main outcome). The primary outcome will be change from baseline in daily accelerometer-assessed moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Secondary outcomes include accelerometer-assessed activity intensities on weekdays/weekends; self-reported physical activity and psychosocial outcomes; cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses; mixed-methods process evaluation integrating information from focus groups and participation logs/questionnaires. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval for the conduct of the study was gained from the University of Cambridge Psychology Research Ethics Committee. Given the lack of rigorously evaluated interventions, and the inclusion of objective measurement of physical activity, long-term follow-up and testing of causal pathways, the results of a CRCT of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of GoActive are expected to add substantially to the limited evidence on adolescent physical activity promotion. Workshops will be held with key stakeholders including students, parents, teachers, school governors and government representatives to discuss plans for wider dissemination of the intervention. Trial registration number ISRCTN31583496. This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt and build upon this work, for commercial use, provided the original work is properly cited. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, This project is funded by the National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research (13/90/18). Intervention delivery costs will be borne by Essex and Cambridgeshire County Councils.

Aims/hypothesis Few studies have investigated the relationship between predefined dietary patterns and type 2 diabetes incidence; little is known about the generalisability of these associations. We aimed to assess the association between predefined dietary patterns and type 2 diabetes risk in European populations. Methods From among a case-cohort of 12,403 incident diabetes cases and 16,154 subcohort members nested within the prospective European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study, we used data on 9,682 cases and 12,595 subcohort participants from seven countries. Habitual dietary intake was assessed at baseline with country-specific dietary questionnaires. Two diet-quality scores (alternative Healthy Eating Index [aHEI], Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension [DASH] score) and three reduced rank regression (RRR)-derived dietary-pattern scores were constructed. Country-specific HRs were calculated and combined using a random-effects meta-analysis. Results After multivariable adjustment, including body size, the aHEI and DASH scores were not significantly associated with diabetes, although for the aHEI there was a tendency towards an inverse association in countries with higher mean age. We observed inverse associations of the three RRR-derived dietary-pattern scores with diabetes: HRs (95% CIs) for a 1-SD difference were 0.91 (0.86, 0.96), 0.92 (0.84, 1.01) and 0.87 (0.82, 0.92). Random-effects meta-analyses revealed heterogeneity between countries that was explainable by differences in the age of participants or the distribution of dietary intake. Conclusions/interpretation Adherence to specific RRR-derived dietary patterns, commonly characterised by high intake of fruits or vegetables and low intake of processed meat, sugar-sweetened beverages and refined grains, may lower type 2 diabetes risk. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-013-3092-9) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The cardiovascular benefit of increasing fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake following diagnosis of diabetes remains unknown. We aimed to describe how quantity and variety of F&V intake, and plasma vitamin C, change after diagnosis of type 2 diabetes and examine whether these changes are associated with improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A total of 401 individuals with screen-detected diabetes from the ADDITION-Cambridge study were followed up over 5 years. F&V intake was assessed by food frequency questionnaire and plasma vitamin C at baseline, at 1 year and at 5 years. Linear mixed models were used to estimate associations of changes in quantity and variety of F&V intake, and plasma vitamin C, with cardiovascular risk factors and a clustered cardiometabolic risk score (CCMR), where a higher score indicates higher risk. RESULTS: F&V intake increased in year 1 but decreased by year 5, whereas variety remained unchanged. Plasma vitamin C increased at 1 year and at 5 years. Each s.d. increase (250g between baseline and 1 year and 270g between 1 and 5 years) in F&V intake was associated with lower waist circumference (-0.92 (95% CI: -1.57, -0.27) cm), HbA1c (-0.11 (-0.20, -0.03) %) and CCMR (-0.04 (-0.08, -0.01)) at 1 year and higher high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol (0.04 (0.01, 0.06) mmol/l) at 5 years. Increased plasma vitamin C (per s.d., 22.5 μmol/l) was associated with higher HDL-cholesterol (0.04 (0.01, 0.06) mmol/l) and lower CCMR (-0.07 (-0.12, -0.03)) between 1 and 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in F&V quantity following diagnosis of diabetes are associated with lower cardiovascular risk factors. Health promotion interventions might highlight the importance of increasing, and maintaining increases in, F&V intake for improved cardiometabolic health in patients with diabetes.

Background Gene-diet interactions have been reported to contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, to our knowledge, few examples have been consistently replicated to date. Objective We aimed to identify existing evidence for genemacronutrient interactions and T2D and to examine the reported interactions in a large-scale study. Design We systematically reviewed studies reporting genemacronutrient interactions and T2D. We searched the MEDLINE, Human Genome Epidemiology Network, and WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform electronic databases to identify studies published up to October 2015. Eligibility criteria included assessment of macronutrient quantity (e.g., total carbohydrate) or indicators of quality (e.g., dietary fiber) by use of self-report or objective biomarkers of intake. Interactions identified in the review were subsequently examined in the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer)-InterAct case-cohort study (n = 21,148, with 9403 T2D cases; 8 European countries). Prentice-weighted Cox regression was used to estimate countryspecific HRs, 95% CIs, and P-interaction values, which were then pooled by random-effects meta-analysis. A primary model was fitted by using the same covariates as reported in the published studies, and a second model adjusted for additional covariates and estimated the effects of isocaloric macronutrient substitution. Results Thirteen observational studies met the eligibility criteria (n , 1700 cases). Eight unique interactions were reported to be significant between macronutrients [carbohydrate, fat, saturated fat, dietary fiber, and glycemic load derived from self-report of dietary intake and circulating n–3 (v-3) polyunsaturated fatty acids] and genetic variants in or near transcription factor 7–like 2 (TCF7L2), gastric inhibitory polypeptide receptor (GIPR), caveolin 2 (CAV2), and peptidase D (PEPD) (P-interaction , 0.05). We found no evidence of interaction when we tried to replicate previously reported interactions. In addition, no interactions were detected in models with additional covariates. Conclusions Eight gene-macronutrient interactions were identified for the risk of T2D from the literature. These interactions were not replicated in the EPIC-InterAct study, which mirrored the analyses undertaken in the original reports. Our findings highlight the importance of independent replication of reported interactions.

BACKGROUND: Endometrial biopsies are undertaken in premenopausal women with abnormal uterine bleeding but the risk of endometrial cancer or atypical hyperplasia is unclear. OBJECTIVES: To conduct a systematic literature review to establish the risk of endometrial cancer and atypical hyperplasia in premenopausal women with abnormal uterine bleeding. SEARCH STRATEGY: Search of PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library from database inception to August 2015. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies reporting rates of endometrial cancer and/or atypical hyperplasia in women with premenopausal abnormal uterine bleeding. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data were independently extracted by two reviewers and cross-checked. For each outcome, the risk and a 95% CI were estimated using logistic regression with robust standard errors to account for clustering by study. MAIN RESULTS: Sixty-five articles contributed to the analysis. Risk of endometrial cancer was 0.33% (95% CI 0.23-0.48%, n = 29 059; 97 cases) and risk of endometrial cancer or atypical hyperplasia was 1.31% (95% CI 0.96-1.80, n = 15 772; 207 cases). Risk of endometrial cancer was lower in women with heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB) (0.11%, 95% CI 0.04-0.32%, n = 8352; 9 cases) compared with inter-menstrual bleeding (IMB) (0.52%, 95% CI 0.23-1.16%, n = 3109; 14 cases). Of five studies reporting the rate of atypical hyperplasia in women with HMB, none identified any cases. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of endometrial cancer or atypical hyperplasia in premenopausal women with abnormal uterine bleeding is low. Premenopausal women with abnormal uterine bleeding should first undergo conventional medical management. Where this fails, the presence of IMB and older age may be indicators for further investigation. Further research into the risks associated with age and the cumulative risk of co-morbidities is needed. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Contrary to practice, premenopausal women with heavy periods or inter-menstrual bleeding rarely require biopsy.

AIMS: To investigate the effect of short-term vitamin D supplementation on cardiometabolic outcomes among individuals with an elevated risk of diabetes. METHODS: In a double-blind placebo-controlled randomized trial, 340 adults who had an elevated risk of type 2 diabetes (non-diabetic hyperglycaemia or positive diabetes risk score) were randomized to either placebo, 100,000 IU vitamin D2 (ergocalciferol) or 100,000 IU vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol), orally administered monthly for 4 months. The primary outcome was change in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) between baseline and 4 months, adjusted for baseline. Secondary outcomes included: blood pressure; lipid levels; apolipoprotein levels; C-reactive protein levels; pulse wave velocity (PWV); anthropometric measures; and safety of the supplementation. RESULTS: The mean [standard deviation (s.d.)] 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D]2 concentration increased from 5.2 (4.1) to 53.9 (18.5) nmol/l in the D2 group, and the mean (s.d.) 25(OH)D3 concentration increased from 45.8 (22.6) to 83.8 (22.7) nmol/l in the D3 group. There was no effect of vitamin D supplementation on HbA1c: D2 versus placebo: -0.05% [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.11, 0.02] or -0.51 mmol/mol (95% CI -1.16, 0.14; p = 0.13); D3 versus placebo: 0.02% (95% CI -0.04, 0.08) or 0.19 mmol/mol (95% CI -0.46, 0.83; p = 0.57). There were no clinically meaningful effects on secondary outcomes, except PWV [D2 versus placebo: -0.68 m/s (95% CI -1.31, -0.05); D3 versus placebo -0.73 m/s (95% CI -1.42, -0.03)]. No important safety issues were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Short-term supplementation with vitamin D2 or D3 had no effect on HbA1c. The modest reduction in PWV with both D2 and D3 relative to placebo suggests that vitamin D supplementation has a beneficial effect on arterial stiffness.

Aims/hypothesis: A diet rich in meat has been reported to contribute to the risk of type 2 diabetes. The present study aims to investigate the association between meat consumption and incident type 2 diabetes in the EPIC-InterAct study, a large prospective case-cohort study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Methods: During 11.7 years of follow-up, 12,403 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified among 340,234 adults from eight European countries. A centre-stratified random subsample of 16,835 individuals was selected in order to perform a case-cohort design. Prentice-weighted Cox regression analyses were used to estimate HR and 95% CI for incident diabetes according to meat consumption. Results: Overall, multivariate analyses showed significant positive associations with incident type 2 diabetes for increasing consumption of total meat (50 g increments: HR 1.08; 95% CI 1.05, 1.12), red meat (HR 1.08; 95% CI 1.03, 1.13) and processed meat (HR 1.12; 95% CI 1.05, 1.19), and a borderline positive association with meat iron intake. Effect modifications by sex and class of BMI were observed. In men, the results of the overall analyses were confirmed. In women, the association with total and red meat persisted, although attenuated, while an association with poultry consumption also emerged (HR 1.20; 95% CI 1.07, 1.34). These associations were not evident among obese participants. Conclusions/interpretation: This prospective study confirms a positive association between high consumption of total and red meat and incident type 2 diabetes in a large cohort of European adults.

OBJECTIVE-To investigate whether associations of common genetic variants recently identified for fasting glucose or insulin levels in nondiabetic adults are detectable in healthy children and adolescents. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-A total of 16 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with fasting glucose were genotyped in six studies of children and adolescents of European origin, including over 6,000 boys and girls aged 9-16 years. We performed meta-analyses to test associations of individual SNPs and a weighted risk score of the 16 loci with fasting glucose. RESULTS-Nine loci were associated with glucose levels in healthy children and adolescents, with four of these associations reported in previous studies and five reported here for the first time (GLIS3, PROX1, SLC2A2, ADCY5, and CRY2). Effect sizes were similar to those in adults, suggesting age-independent effects of these fasting glucose loci. Children and adolescents carrying glucose-raising alleles of G6PC2, MTNR1B, GCK, and GLIS3 also showed reduced p-cell function, as indicated by homeostasis model assessment of beta-cell function. Analysis using a weighted risk score showed an increase [beta (95% CI)] in fasting glucose level of 0.026 mrnol/L (0.021-0.031) for each unit increase in the score. CONCLUSIONS-Novel fasting glucose loci identified in genome-wide association studies of adults are associated with altered fasting glucose levels in healthy children and adolescents with effect sizes comparable to adults. In nondiabetic adults, fasting glucose changes little over time, and our results suggest that age-independent effects of fasting glucose loci contribute to long-term interindividual differences in glucose levels from childhood onwards. Diabetes 60:1805-1812, 2011

We aimed to validate genetic variants as instruments for insulin resistance and secretion, to characterize their association with intermediate phenotypes, and to investigate their role in type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk among normal-weight, overweight, and obese individuals. We investigated the association of genetic scores with euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp- and oral glucose tolerance test-based measures of insulin resistance and secretion and a range of metabolic measures in up to 18,565 individuals. We also studied their association with T2D risk among normal-weight, overweight, and obese individuals in up to 8,124 incident T2D cases. The insulin resistance score was associated with lower insulin sensitivity measured by M/I value (β in SDs per allele [95% CI], -0.03 [-0.04, -0.01]; P = 0.004). This score was associated with lower BMI (-0.01 [-0.01, -0.0]; P = 0.02) and gluteofemoral fat mass (-0.03 [-0.05, -0.02; P = 1.4 × 10(-6)) and with higher alanine transaminase (0.02 [0.01, 0.03]; P = 0.002) and γ-glutamyl transferase (0.02 [0.01, 0.03]; P = 0.001). While the secretion score had a stronger association with T2D in leaner individuals (Pinteraction = 0.001), we saw no difference in the association of the insulin resistance score with T2D among BMI or waist strata (Pinteraction > 0.31). While insulin resistance is often considered secondary to obesity, the association of the insulin resistance score with lower BMI and adiposity and with incident T2D even among individuals of normal weight highlights the role of insulin resistance and ectopic fat distribution in T2D, independently of body size.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Biomarkers for a mixed fruit and vegetable (FV) diet are needed to provide a better understanding of the association between FV intake and type 2 diabetes. We aimed to examine the prospective association between a composite score comprised of three biomarkers of FV intake in free-living populations and incident diabetes. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A total of 318 incident diabetes cases and 926 controls from the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer)-Norfolk study aged 40-79 years at baseline (1993-1997), completed 7-day prospective food diary and had plasma vitamin C and carotenoid measures. A composite biomarker score (CB-score) comprising the sum of plasma vitamin C, beta-carotene and lutein was derived. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident diabetes were estimated using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: A strong inverse association was found between the CB-score and incident diabetes. The ORs (95% CI) of diabetes comparing quartiles Q2, Q3 and Q4 of the CB-score with Q1 (reference category) were 0.70 (0.49, 1.00), 0.34 (0.23, 0.52) and 0.19 (0.12, 0.32), respectively, and 0.49 (0.40, 0.58) per s.d. change in CB-score in a model adjusted for demographic and lifestyle factors. The association was marginally attenuated after additionally adjusting for body mass index and waist circumference (0.60 (0.49 and 0.74) per s.d. change in CB-score). CONCLUSIONS: A combination of biomarkers representing the intake of a mixed FV diet was strongly inversely associated with incident diabetes. These findings provide further support for measuring dietary biomarkers in studies of diet-disease associations and highlight the importance of consuming FV for the prevention of diabetes.

The association of glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) with the risk of type 2 diabetes remains unclear. We investigated associations of dietary GI, GL, and digestible carbohydrate with incident type 2 diabetes. We performed a case-cohort study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Study, including a random subcohort (n = 16,835) and incident type 2 diabetes cases (n = 12,403). The median follow-up time was 12 y. Baseline dietary intakes were assessed using country-specific dietary questionnaires. Country-specific HR were calculated and pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Dietary GI, GL, and digestible carbohydrate in the subcohort were (mean +/- SD) 56 +/- 4, 127 +/- 23, and 226 +/- 36 g/d, respectively. After adjustment for confounders, GI and GL were not associated with incident diabetes [HR highest vs. lowest quartile (HRQ4) for GI: 1.05 (95% CI = 0.96, 1.16); HRQ4 for GL: 1.07 (95% CI = 0.95, 1.20)]. Digestible carbohydrate intake was not associated with incident diabetes [HRQ4: 0.98(95% CI = 0.86, 1.10)]. In additional analyses, we found that discrepancies in the GI value assignment to foods possibly explain differences in GI associations with diabetes within the same study population. In conclusion, an expansion of the GI tables and systematic GI value assignment to foods may be needed to improve the validity of GI values derived in such studies, after which GI associations may need reevaluation. Our study shows that digestible carbohydrate intake is not associated with diabetes risk and suggests that diabetes risk with high-GI and -GL diets may be more modest than initial studies suggested. J. Nutr. 143: 93-99, 2013.

Background: Epidemiologic evidence of an association between fish intake and type 2 diabetes (T2D) is inconsistent and unresolved. Objective: The objective was to examine the association between total and type of fish intake and T2D in 8 European countries. Design: This was a case-cohort study, nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up, 12,403 incident diabetes cases, and a random subcohort of 16,835 individuals from 8 European countries. Habitual fish intake (lean fish, fatty fish, total fish, shellfish, and combined fish and shellfish) was assessed by country-specific dietary questionnaires. HRs were estimated in each country by using Prentice-weighted Cox regression models and pooled by using a random-effects meta-analysis. Results: No overall association was found between combined fish and shellfish intake and incident T2D per quartile (adjusted HR: 1.00; 95% Cl: 0.94, 1.06; P-trend = 0.99). Total fish, lean fish, and shellfish intakes separately were also not associated with T2D, but fatty fish intake was weakly inversely associated with T2D: adjusted HR per quartile 0.97 (0.94, 1.00), with an HR of 0.84 (0.70, 1.01), 0.85 (0.76, 0.95), and 0.87 (0.78, 0.97) for a comparison of the second, third, and fourth quartiles with the lowest quartile of intake, respectively (P-trend = 0.06). Conclusions: These findings suggest that lean fish, total fish, and shellfish intakes are not associated with incident diabetes but that fatty fish intake may be weakly inversely associated. Replication of these findings in other populations and investigation of the mechanisms underlying these associations are warranted. Meanwhile, current public health recommendations on fish intake should remain unchanged. Am J Clin Nutr 2012;95:1445-53

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to examine the independent associations of time spent in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary (SED-time), with total and abdominal body fat (BF), and the bidirectionality of these associations in adults at high risk of type 2 diabetes. DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: We measured MVPA (min per day) and SED-time (h per day) by accelerometry, and indices of total (body weight, fat mass (FM), BF% and FM index) and abdominal BF (waist circumference (WC)) using standard procedures in 231 adults (41.3 ± 6.4 years) with parental history of type 2 diabetes (ProActive UK) at baseline, 1-year and 7-year follow-up. Mixed effects models were used to quantify the independent associations (expressed as standardised β-coefficients (95% confidence interval (CI))) of MVPA and SED-time with fat indices, using data from all three time points. All models were adjusted for age, sex, intervention arm, monitor wear time, follow-up time, smoking status, socioeconomic status and MVPA/SED-time. RESULTS: MVPA was inversely and independently associated with all indices of total BF (for example, 1 s.d. higher MVPA was associated with a reduction in FM, β = -0.09 (95% CI: -0.14, -0.04) s.d.) and abdominal BF (for example, WC: β = -0.07 (-0.12, -0.02)). Similarly, higher fat indices were independently associated with a reduction in MVPA (for example, WC: β = -0.25 (-0.36, -0.15); FM: β = -0.27 (-0.36, -0.18)). SED-time was positively and independently associated with most fat indices (for example, WC: β = 0.03 (-0.04, 0.09); FM: β = 0.10 (0.03, 0.17)). Higher values of all fat indices independently predicted longer SED-time (for example, WC: β = 0.10 (0.02, 0.18), FM: β = 0.15 (0.07, 0.22)). CONCLUSIONS: The associations of MVPA and SED-time with total and abdominal BF are bidirectional and independent among individuals at high risk for type 2 diabetes. The association between BF and MVPA is stronger than the reciprocal association, highlighting the importance of considering BF as a determinant of decreasing activity and a potential consequence. Promoting more MVPA and less SED-time may reduce total and abdominal BF.

© 2015 Swerdlow et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Background Statins increase the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus. We aimed to assess whether this increase in risk is a consequence of inhibition of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase (HMGCR), the intended drug target. Methods We used single nucleotide polymorphisms in the HMGCR gene, rs17238484 (for the main analysis) and rs12916 (for a subsidiary analysis) as proxies for HMGCR inhibition by statins. We examined associations of these variants with plasma lipid, glucose, and insulin concentrations; bodyweight; waist circumference; and prevalent and incident type 2 diabetes. Study-specific effect estimates per copy of each LDL-lowering allele were pooled by meta-analysis. These findings were compared with a meta-analysis of new-onset type 2 diabetes and bodyweight change data from randomised trials of statin drugs. The effects of statins in each randomised trial were assessed using meta-analysis. Findings Data were available for up to 223 463 individuals from 43 genetic studies. Each additional rs17238484-G allele was associated with a mean 0·06 mmol/L (95% CI 0·05-0·07) lower LDL cholesterol and higher body weight (0·30 kg, 0·18-0·43), waist circumference (0·32 cm, 0·16-0·47), plasma insulin concentration (1·62%, 0·53-2·72), and plasma glucose concentration (0·23%, 0·02-0·44). The rs12916 SNP had similar effects on LDL cholesterol, bodyweight, and waist circumference. The rs17238484-G allele seemed to be associated with higher risk of type 2 diabetes (odds ratio [OR] per allele 1·02, 95% CI 1·00-1·05); the rs12916-T allele association was consistent (1·06, 1·03-1·09). In 129 170 individuals in randomised trials, statins lowered LDL cholesterol by 0·92 mmol/L (95% CI 0·18-1·67) at 1-year of follow-up, increased bodyweight by 0·24 kg (95% CI 0·10-0·38 in all trials; 0·33 kg, 95% CI 0·24-0·42 in placebo or standard care controlled trials and -0·15 kg, 95% CI -0·39 to 0·08 in intensive-dose vs moderate-dose trials) at a mean of 4·2 years (range 1·9-6·7) of follow-up, and increased the odds of new-onset type 2 diabetes (OR 1·12, 95% CI 1·06-1·18 in all trials; 1·11, 95% CI 1·03-1·20 in placebo or standard care controlled trials and 1·12, 95% CI 1·04-1·22 in intensive-dose vs moderate dose trials). Interpretation The increased risk of type 2 diabetes noted with statins is at least partially explained by HMGCR inhibition. Funding The funding sources are cited at the end of the paper.

Objective: To use the rs1229984 variant in the alcohol dehydrogenase 1B gene (ADH1B) as an instrument to investigate the causal role of alcohol in cardiovascular disease. Design: Mendelian randomisation meta-analysis of 56 epidemiological studies. Participants: 261 991 individuals of European descent, including 20 259 coronary heart disease cases and 10 164 stroke events. Data were available on ADH1B rs1229984 variant, alcohol phenotypes, and cardiovascular biomarkers. Main outcome measures: Odds ratio for coronary heart disease and stroke associated with the ADH1B variant in all individuals and by categories of alcohol consumption. Results: Carriers of the A-allele of ADH1B rs1229984 consumed 17.2% fewer units of alcohol per week (95% confidence interval 15.6% to 18.9%), had a lower prevalence of binge drinking (odds ratio 0.78 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.84)), and had higher abstention (odds ratio 1.27 (1.21 to 1.34)) than non-carriers. Rs1229984 A-allele carriers had lower systolic blood pressure (-0.88 (-1.19 to -0.56) mm Hg), interleukin-6 levels (-5.2% (-7.8 to -2.4%)), waist circumference (-0.3 (-0.6 to -0.1) cm), and body mass index (-0.17 (-0.24 to -0.10) kg/m2). Rs1229984 A-allele carriers had lower odds of coronary heart disease (odds ratio 0.90 (0.84 to 0.96)). The protective association of the ADH1B rs1229984 A-allele variant remained the same across all categories of alcohol consumption (P=0.83 for heterogeneity). Although no association of rs1229984 was identified with the combined subtypes of stroke, carriers of the A-allele had lower odds of ischaemic stroke (odds ratio 0.83 (0.72 to 0.95)). Conclusions: Individuals with a genetic variant associated with non-drinking and lower alcohol consumption had a more favourable cardiovascular profile and a reduced risk of coronary heart disease than those without the genetic variant. This suggests that reduction of alcohol consumption, even for light to moderate drinkers, is beneficial for cardiovascular health.

Dietary flavanols and flavonols, flavonoid subclasses, have been recently associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Europe. Even within the same subclass, flavonoids may differ considerably in bioavailability and bioactivity. We aimed to examine the association between individual flavanol and flavonol intakes and risk of developing T2D across European countries. The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 8 European countries across 26 study centers with 340,234 participants contributing 3.99 million person-years of follow-up, among whom 12,403 incident T2D cases were ascertained and a center-stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals was defined. We estimated flavonoid intake at baseline from validated dietary questionnaires using a database developed from Phenol-Explorer and USDA databases. We used country-specific Prentice-weighted Cox regression models and random-effects meta-analysis methods to estimate HRs. Among the flavanol subclass, we observed significant inverse trends between intakes of all individual flavan-3-ol monomers and risk of T2D in multivariable models (all P-trend < 0.05). We also observed significant trends for the intakes of proanthocyanidin dimers (HR for the highest vs. the lowest quintile. 0.81; 95% Cl: 0.71, 0.92; P-trend = 0.003) and trimers (HR: 0.91; 95% Cl: 0.80, 1.04; P-trend = 0.07) but not for proanthocyanidins with a greater polymerization degree. Among the flavonol subclass, myricetin (HR: 0.77; 95% Cl: 0.64, 0.93; P-trend = 0.001) was associated with a lower incidence of T2D. This large and heterogeneous European study showed inverse associations between all individual flavan-3-ol monomers, proanthocyanidins with a low polymerization degree, and the flavonol myricetin and incident T2D. These results suggest that individual flavonoids have different roles in the etiology of T2D.

OBJECTIVE: To study the association between dietary flavonoid and lignan intakes, and the risk of development of type 2 diabetes among European populations. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-InterAct case-cohort study included 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 participants from among 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up in eight European countries. At baseline, country-specific validated dietary questionnaires were used. A flavonoid and lignan food composition database was developed from the Phenol-Explorer, the U.K. Food Standards Agency, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture databases. Hazard ratios (HRs) from country-specific Prentice-weighted Cox regression models were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: In multivariable models, a trend for an inverse association between total flavonoid intake and type 2 diabetes was observed (HR for the highest vs. the lowest quintile, 0.90 [95% CI 0.77-1.04]; P value trend = 0.040), but not with lignans (HR 0.88 [95% CI 0.72-1.07]; P value trend = 0.119). Among flavonoid subclasses, flavonols (HR 0.81 [95% CI 0.69-0.95]; P value trend = 0.020) and flavanols (HR 0.82 [95% CI 0.68-0.99]; P value trend = 0.012), including flavan-3-ol monomers (HR 0.73 [95% CI 0.57-0.93]; P value trend = 0.029), were associated with a significantly reduced hazard of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Prospective findings in this large European cohort demonstrate inverse associations between flavonoids, particularly flavanols and flavonols, and incident type 2 diabetes. This suggests a potential protective role of eating a diet rich in flavonoids, a dietary pattern based on plant-based foods, in the prevention of type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE-Age at menopause is an important determinant of future health outcomes, but little is known about its relationship with type 2 diabetes. We examined the associations of menopausal age and reproductive life span (menopausal age minus menarcheal age) with diabetes risk. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-Data were obtained from the InterAct study, a prospective case-cohort study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. A total of 3,691 postmenopausal type 2 diabetic case subjects and 4,408 subcohort members were included in the analysis, with a median follow-up of 11 years. Prentice weighted Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for age, known risk factors for diabetes, and reproductive factors, and effect modification by BMI, waist circumference, and smoking was studied. RESULTS-Mean (SD) age of the subcohort was 59.2 (5.8) years. After multivariable adjustment, hazard ratios (HRs) of type 2 diabetes were 1.32 (95% CI 1.04-1.69), 1.09 (0.90-1.31), 0.97 (0.86- 1.10), and 0.85 (0.70-1.03) for women with menopause at ages 0.05). CONCLUSIONS-Early menopause is associated with a greater risk of type 2 diabetes. © 2013 by the American Diabetes Association.