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A principal uses payments conditioned on stochastic outcomes of a team project to elicit costly effort from the team members. We develop a multi-agent generalization of a classic first-order approach to contract optimization by leveraging methods from network games. The main results characterize the optimal allocation of incentive pay across agents and outcomes. Incentive optimality requires equalizing, across agents, a product of (i) individual productivity (ii) organizational centrality and (iii) responsiveness to monetary incentives.

This paper takes a game theoretic approach to the design and analysis of online algorithms and illustrates the approach on the finite-horizon ski-rental problem. This approach allows beyond worst-case analysis of online algorithms. First, we define "subgame optimality" which is stronger than worst case optimality in that it requires the algorithm to take advantage of an adversary not playing a worst case input. Algorithms only focusing on the worst case can be far from subgame optimal. Second, we consider prior-independent design and analysis of online algorithms, where rather than choosing a worst case input, the adversary chooses a worst case independent and identical distribution over inputs. Prior-independent online algorithms are generally analytically intractable; instead we give a fully polynomial time approximation scheme to compute them. Highlighting the potential improvement from these paradigms for the finite-horizon ski-rental problem, we empirically compare worst-case, subgame optimal, and prior-independent algorithms in the prior-independent framework., Comment: 22 main pages, 1 figure

Forecast aggregation combines the predictions of multiple forecasters to improve accuracy. However, the lack of knowledge about forecasters' information structure hinders optimal aggregation. Given a family of information structures, robust forecast aggregation aims to find the aggregator with minimal worst-case regret compared to the omniscient aggregator. Previous approaches for robust forecast aggregation rely on heuristic observations and parameter tuning. We propose an algorithmic framework for robust forecast aggregation. Our framework provides efficient approximation schemes for general information aggregation with a finite family of possible information structures. In the setting considered by Arieli et al. (2018) where two agents receive independent signals conditioned on a binary state, our framework also provides efficient approximation schemes by imposing Lipschitz conditions on the aggregator or discrete conditions on agents' reports. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by providing a nearly optimal aggregator in the setting considered by Arieli et al. (2018).

A group of agents each exert effort to produce a joint output, with the complementarities between their efforts represented by a (weighted) network. Under equity compensation, a principal motivates the agents to work by giving them shares of the output. We describe the optimal equity allocation. It is characterized by a neighborhood balance condition: any two agents receiving equity have the same (weighted) total equity assigned to their neighbors. We also study the problem of selecting the team of agents who receive positive equity, and show this team must form a tight-knit subset of the complementarity network, with any pair being complementary to one another or jointly to another team member. Finally, we give conditions under which the amount of equity used for compensation is increasing in the strength of a team's complementarities and discuss several other applications., Comment: 37 pages, 4 figures

The classical 'buy or rent' ski-rental problem was recently considered in the setting where multiple experts (such as Machine Learning algorithms) advice on the length of the ski season. Here, robust algorithms were developed with improved theoretical performance over adversarial scenarios where such expert predictions were unavailable. We consider a variant of this problem which we call the 'sequential ski-rental' problem. Here, a sequence of ski-rental problems has to be solved in an online fashion where both the buy cost and the length of the ski season are unknown to the learner. The learner has access to two sets of experts, one set who advise on the true cost of buying the ski and another set who advise on the length of the ski season. Under certain stochastic assumptions on the experts who predict the buy costs, we develop online algorithms and prove regret bounds for the same. Our experimental evaluations confirm our theoretical results., Comment: Accepted at AAMAS 2021, Added proof of Theorem 3. Updated argument in Theorem 6

In this work we investigate Named Data Networking's (NDN's) architectural properties and features, such as content caching and intelligent packet forwarding, in the context of a Content Delivery Network (CDN) workflows. More specifically, we evaluate NDN's properties for PoP (Point of Presence) to PoP and PoP to device connectivity. We use the Apache Traffic Server (ATS) platform to create an HTTP, CDN-like caching hierarchy in order to compare NDN with HTTP-based content delivery. Overall, our work demonstrates that properties inherent to NDN can benefit content providers and users alike. Our experimental results demonstrate that HTTP is faster under stable conditions due to a mature software stack. However, NDN performs better in the presence of packet loss, even for a loss rate as low as 0.1%, due to packet-level caching in the network and fast retransmissions from close upstreams and fast retransmissions from close upstreams. We further show that the Time To First Byte (TTFB) in NDN is consistently lower than HTTP (~100ms in HTTP vs ~50ms in NDN), a vital requirement for CDNs, in addition to supporting transparent failover to another upstream when a failure occurs in the network. Moreover, we examine implementation agnostic (implementation choices can be Software Defined Networking, Information Centric Networking, or something else) network properties that can benefit CDN workflows., Comment: 6 pages. The paper has been accepted for publication by the 9th IEEE International Conference on Cloud Networking (CloudNet), 2020

Inter-domain routing is a crucial part of the Internet designed for arbitrary policies, economical models, and topologies. This versatility translates into a substantially complex system that is hard to comprehend. Monitoring the inter-domain routing infrastructure is however essential for understanding the current state of the Internet and improving it. In this paper we design a methodology to answer two simple questions: Which are the common transit networks used to reach a certain AS? How much does this AS depends on these transit networks? To answer these questions we digest AS paths advertised with the Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) into AS graphs and measure node centrality, that is the likelihood of an AS to lie on paths between two other ASes. Our proposal relies solely on the AS hegemony metric, a new way to quantify node centrality while taking into account the bias towards the partial view offered by BGP. Our analysis using 14 years of BGP data refines our knowledge on Internet flattening but also exhibits the consolidated position of tier-1 networks in today's IPv4 and IPv6 Internet. We also study the connectivity to two content providers (Google and Akamai) and investigate the AS dependency of networks hosting DNS root servers. These case studies emphasize the benefits of the proposed method to assist ISPs in planning and assessing infrastructure deployment.

This paper develops the theory of mechanism redesign by which an auctioneer can reoptimize an auction based on bid data collected from previous iterations of the auction on bidders from the same market. We give a direct method for estimation of the revenue of a counterfactual auction from the bids in the current auction. The estimator is a simple weighted order statistic of the bids and has the optimal error rate. Two applications of our estimator are A/B testing (a.k.a., randomized controlled trials) and instrumented optimization (i.e., revenue optimization subject to being able to do accurate inference of any counterfactual auction revenue)., Comment: This paper combines and improves upon results from manuscripts "Mechanism Design for Data Science" (arXiv:1404.5971) and "A/B Testing of Auctions" (arXiv:1606.00908)

There are currently no requirements (technical or otherwise) that BGP paths must be contained within national boundaries. Indeed, some paths experience international detours, i.e., originate in one country, cross international boundaries and return to the same country. In most cases these are sensible traffic engineering or peering decisions at ISPs that serve multiple countries. In some cases such detours may be suspicious. Characterizing international detours is useful to a number of players: (a) network engineers trying to diagnose persistent problems, (b) policy makers aiming at adhering to certain national communication policies, (c) entrepreneurs looking for opportunities to deploy new networks, or (d) privacy-conscious states trying to minimize the amount of internal communication traversing different jurisdictions. In this paper we characterize international detours in the Internet during the month of January 2016. To detect detours we sample BGP RIBs every 8 hours from 461 RouteViews and RIPE RIS peers spanning 30 countries. Then geolocate visible ASes by geolocating each BGP prefix announced by each AS, mapping its presence at IXPs and geolocation infrastructure IPs. Finally, analyze each global BGP RIB entry looking for detours. Our analysis shows more than 5K unique BGP prefixes experienced a detour. A few ASes cause most detours and a small fraction of prefixes were affected the most. We observe about 544K detours. Detours either last for a few days or persist the entire month. Out of all the detours, more than 90% were transient detours that lasted for 72 hours or less. We also show different countries experience different characteristics of detours.