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Pain typically evolves over time and the brain needs to learn this temporal evolution to predict how pain is likely to change in the future and orient behavior. This process is termed temporal statistical learning (TSL). Recently, it has been shown that TSL for pain sequences can be achieved using optimal Bayesian inference, which is encoded in somatosensory processing regions. Here, we investigate whether the confidence of these probabilistic predictions modulates the EEG response to noxious stimuli, using a TSL task. Confidence measures the uncertainty about the probabilistic prediction, irrespective of its actual outcome. Bayesian models dictate that the confidence about probabilistic predictions should be integrated with incoming inputs and weight learning, such that it modulates the early components of the EEG responses to noxious stimuli, and this should be captured by a negative correlation: when confidence is higher, the early neural responses are smaller as the brain relies more on expectations/predictions and less on sensory inputs (and vice versa). We show that participants were able to predict the sequence transition probabilities using Bayesian inference, with some forgetting. Then, we find that the confidence of these probabilistic predictions was negatively associated with the amplitude of the N2 and P2 components of the Vertex Potential: the more confident were participants about their predictions, the smaller was the Vertex Potential. These results confirm key predictions of a Bayesian learning model and clarify the functional significance of the early EEG responses to nociceptive stimuli, as being implicated in confidence-weighted statistical learning.

Relief of ongoing pain is a potent motivator of behavior, directing actions to escape from or reduce potentially harmful stimuli. Whereas endogenous modulation of pain events is well characterized, relatively little is known about the modulation of pain relief and its corresponding neurochemical basis. Here, we studied pain modulation during a probabilistic relief-seeking task (a ‘wheel of fortune’ gambling task), in which people actively or passively received reduction of a tonic thermal pain stimulus. We found that relief perception was enhanced by active decisions and unpredictability, and greater in high novelty-seeking trait individuals, consistent with a model in which relief is tuned by its informational content. We then probed the roles of dopaminergic and opioidergic signaling, both of which are implicated in relief processing, by embedding the task in a double-blinded cross-over design with administration of the dopamine precursor levodopa and the opioid receptor antagonist naltrexone. We found that levodopa enhanced each of these information-specific aspects of relief modulation but no significant effects of the opioidergic manipulation. These results show that dopaminergic signaling has a key role in modulating the perception of pain relief to optimize motivation and behavior.

Machine learning classifiers for psychiatric disorders using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) have recently attracted attention as a method for directly examining relationships between neural circuits and psychiatric disorders. To develop accurate and generalizable classifiers, we compiled a large-scale, multi-site, multi-disorder neuroimaging database. The database comprises resting-state fMRI and structural images of the brain from 993 patients and 1,421 healthy individuals, as well as demographic information such as age, sex, and clinical rating scales. To harmonize the multi-site data, nine healthy participants ("traveling subjects") visited the sites from which the above datasets were obtained and underwent neuroimaging with 12 scanners. All participants consented to having their data shared and analyzed at multiple medical and research institutions participating in the project, and 706 patients and 1,122 healthy individuals consented to having their data disclosed. Finally, we have published four datasets: 1) the SRPBS Multi-disorder Connectivity Dataset 2), the SRPBS Multi-disorder MRI Dataset (restricted), 3) the SRPBS Multi-disorder MRI Dataset (unrestricted), and 4) the SRPBS Traveling Subject MRI Dataset.