Search

Metadata only record The Bolivian Altiplano is particular vulnerable to harmful effects of climate change and corresponding disturbances in precipitation patterns. In this study, CMIP3 models were analyzed according to their ability to simulate past rainfall patterns. The most accurate models were then used to make predictions regarding summertime precipitation changes. Reductions in precipitation during the summer, runoff increases, LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

Twenty-first century climate model projections show an amplification of the annual cycle in tropical precipitation with increased strength in both wet and dry seasons, but uncertainty is large and few studies have examined transition seasons. Here we analyze coupled climate model projections of global land monsoons and show a redistribution of precipitation from spring to summer in northern (North America, West Africa and Southeast Asia) and southern (South America, Southern Africa) regions. The annual cycle changes are global in scale. Two mechanisms, remote (based on tropospheric stability) and local (based on low level and surface moisture), are evaluated through the annual cycle. Increases in tropospheric stability persist from winter into spring and are reinforced by a reduction in surface moisture conditions, suggesting that in spring both remote and local mechanisms act to inhibit convection. This enhanced spring convective barrier leads to reduced early season rainfall; however, once sufficient increases in moisture (by transport) are achieved, decreases in tropospheric stability result in increased precipitation during the late rainy season. Further examination of this mechanism is needed in observations and models, as the projected changes would have substantial implications for agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness.

Metadata only record This research presents a synthesis of the first phase of regionalizing climate projections for LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

This presentation discusses a framework of scales and interactions, Altiplano climate trends and change, markets, livelihood strategies and perceptions of risks across the Altiplano ecosystem, uncertainty, and participatory research in adaptive capacities. LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

The goal of our SANREM-CRSP program in the Altiplano is to conduct research that increases the adaptability to changes in climate, the environment, and markets. To do this we must link scientific knowledge about the production systems and the environment, with the local knowledge, and people's priorities. We are studying different approaches to bridge knowledge systems, and assessing their effectiveness (research interest groups, community groups, knowledge sharing events, participatory mapping of vulnerabilities and assets, co-learning and formal training). We have identified the trends in climate of the past 30 years, and at climate projections for the Northern Altiplano, along with participatory processes to downscale this knowledge to the communities by linking this to the local forecast indicators the community experts observe. This allows us to assess technologies from the perspective of the variability and uncertainty that farmers face, and will increasingly face, when it comes to deciding what, if, and when to plant, or how to reallocate their resources. We have learned that perceptions of risks and dread of hazards are high, but with differences by locality and wealth. People in a the Central Altiplano region of Bolivia, with relatively more income land and animals are more concerned with hazard events like droughts floods and frost; while in the Northern Altiplano region, with less than half the household income, smaller land size, and migration as part of their livelihood strategies, people are more concerned with the climate changing, and affecting what they can grow. In addition to involving farmers in the evaluation of research findings, members of vulnerable groups are purposely included to engage them in the discussions and plans necessary to develop adaptation strategies that will require extra-community resources to be successful. Extreme event projections from the models relate a sense of uncertainty and variability, with presentations unlike the present, with potential for more stress in access to water, and more extreme events in temperature and precipitation that affect agriculture, today the main source of livelihood of these families. Using this information we are identifying the strategies that people use to deal with these events and have identified strategies that include developing or improving the capacity of rural communities to increase value added to their products, and mechanisms to access resources to buffer shocks. We are studying the biological and physical drivers that are changing agricultural production systems, as well as the local knowledge and perceptions of farmers, the way they assess the risks of climate hazards and change (Slovic and Weber 2002). Although trust in traditional decision making tools is declining, trust in scientific knowledge is almost non-existent. In this context two-way participatory communication can enhance this trust and build knowledge that can facilitate adaptation. This requires farmers and researchers to develop a common language. Using traditional scientific research methods combined with participatory research, the project is building new knowledge base which returns to decision makers' as information about their livelihoods, their resources and market integration capacity. It seeks to build new knowledge by bridging scientific and local knowledge systems, and human agency, identifying capacities and capabilities that decision makers in the Altiplano have to be able to adapt to uncertainty. This includes agronomic trials to identify new varieties, crops, or production techniques that can buffer the new risks of changing weather patterns. LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

Metadata only record Adapting to Change in the Andean Highlands: Practices and Strategies to Address Climate and Market Risks in Vulnerable Agro-ecosystems (SANREM CRSP LTRA 4) focus is to identify the consequences of climate change for one of the poorest and most vulnerable regions in the Western Hemisphere and develop adaptive capacities. The project uses a cross disciplinary and participatory approach, linking biophysical and social sciences research with local knowledge systems through participatory institutions. The presentations concentrate on some of the key findings in the context of climate change. In the biophysical sciences Anji Seth will report on Altiplano climate change projections for this century; Peter Motavalli on the mitigation and adaptation aspects of organic soil amendment practices in rural communities; and Karen Garrett on anticipating and responding to plant disease and pests risks. Finally, Valdivia and Gilles will discuss findings on strategies for enhancing the adaptive capacity of small Andean producers. LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

This research compares projected changes in mean temperature and precipitation with projected changes in temperature and precipitation based extreme indices for the Altiplano using several global climate models from the fourth assessment report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It also examines how changes in the annual distribution of temperature and precipitation may result in higher frequencies of extreme events in the future. LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

The World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 3 (CMIP3) dataset employed in this analysis of South American climate projections through the 21st century. Warm season rains associated with the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) are critical in the seasonally dry regions of Southeastern Brazil and the Bolivian Altiplano. Changes in the annual cycle of the SAMS are investigated by examining the 20th century model simulations against observations, and then evaluating differences between the projected mid (2030-2059) and late (2070-2099) 21st century climates with that of present day (1970-1999). Analysis emphasizes the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation, with an exploration of the mechanisms involved in changes including moisture transport, sea level pressure and low level winds, particularly the Andes low level jet. LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

The Altiplano region of Bolivia and Peru is vulnerable to both climate variability and climate change. Its proximity to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) yields changes in the rainy season from year-to-year. In addition, the region depends on snowpack and glacial meltwater for water resources during the long dry season, which are diminishing due to global warming. As part of a larger study to understand how market forces and climate change are affecting highland agriculture, this research explores recent and future climate variability and change in the region. The observed 20th century climate and recent trends are evaluated using global gridded datasets, and station data. In addition, several global climate models employed in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are evaluated for the recent period. Preliminary analysis of the 21st century scenarios for the highland region are also presented. available in SANREM office, ESIILTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

A discussion of the relationship between Altiplano rainfall and large scale circulation on sub-seasonal, interannual and longer timescales, and changes in this relationship in 21st century climate scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

This presentation addresses climate variability in the climate change models for 20th and 21st centuries for the Altiplano Region. The models appear to simulate this mechanism in the present, but respond quite differently in 21st century climate. This poses a question: Is this related to LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

This presentation gives summary of the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I (WG1) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): The physical science basis for climate change. It begins with a history of the theory of global climate change, followed by the important concepts surrounding global climate change: the greenhouse effect and carbon cycle and how the climate has changed throughout the earth's history. It then discusses the IPCC's assessment reports, focusing on three factors: exponential growth, "feedbacks" in the system, and delays in the system. LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

This presentation provides background on the SANREM CRSP project "Adapting to Change in the Andean Highlands: Practices and Strategies to Address Climate and Market Risks in Vulnerable Agro-Eco Systems" and discusses the means, variability and projections for the Altiplano climate. available in SANREM office, ESIILTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

Metadata only record The review of the Rice-Wheat Consortium for the Indo-Gangetic Plains (RWC) was undertaken at the request of the Regional Steering Committee (RSC) of the RWC. ... The goal of the review was to determine the changes in research priorities, organization and methods that will be required for the RWC to continue to make a significant impact on the livelihoods of those employed in agriculture, especially the poor, on the sustainable management of natural resources in the IGP, and on regional food security...