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This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate yearly projections for the main agricultural commodity markets from 2005 until 2015. This report describes the modelling techniques used by the AGMEMOD Partnership, with emphasis on new commodities modelled and policy modelling approaches. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS Scientific and Technical Report Series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities"

This summary report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report gives a general overview of the modelling approach, the description and implementation of the baseline, further CAP reform and exchange rate change scenarios. It outlines the main results for the aggregates EU-10, EU-15, EU-25 and EU-27, focusing in particular on the features implemented in this study, and addresses issues that need further attention. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".

This report is based on a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report outlines the results of the baseline projections of agricultural commodity markets, further CAP reform scenario impact analyses and exchange rate change sensitivity analyses for each EU-25 Member State (except Malta and Cyprus). For Bulgaria and Romania enlargement and non-enlargement scenarios are analysed. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".

This summary report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report gives a general overview of the modelling approach, the description and implementation of the baseline, further CAP reform and exchange rate change scenarios. It outlines the main results for the aggregates EU-10, EU-15, EU-25 and EU-27, focusing in particular on the features implemented in this study, and addresses issues that need further attention. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate yearly projections for the main agricultural commodity markets from 2005 until 2015. This report describes the modelling techniques used by the AGMEMOD Partnership, with emphasis on new commodities modelled and policy modelling approaches. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS Scientific and Technical Report Series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities"

This report is based on a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report outlines the results of the baseline projections of agricultural commodity markets, further CAP reform scenario impact analyses and exchange rate change sensitivity analyses for each EU-25 Member State (except Malta and Cyprus). For Bulgaria and Romania enlargement and non-enlargement scenarios are analysed. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".

Nuo 2004 m. gegužės 1 d. dešimt buvusių šalių kandidačių tapo naujomis ES narėmis. Naujos sąlygos bendrojoje rinkoje ne tik lems teigiamus poslinkius, bet ir atskleis naujas silpnąsias bei stipriąsias valstybių puses. Straipsnis parengtas remiantis dviejų mokslinių tyrimų projektų rezultatais: 1) „Žemės ūkio subalansavimo galimybės prieš ir po stojimo j ES" (Possibilities of Balancing Rural Economy prior to and after Accession to the European Union, Estonian Scientific Foundation, Grant No. 4693) ir 2) „Žemės ūkio sektorius senosiose ir naujosiose ES šalyse: ekonometrinio modeliavimo panaudojimas ES žemės ūkio, miškininkystės ir aplinkos politikos formavimui ir analizei" (AG-MEMOD Partnership, 5th Framework Programme). Nagrinėjant kainų konvergenciją svarbu žinoti: Kurie pagrindiniai veiksniai lems maisto produktų kainas po įstojimo į ES? Kaip greit konverguos žaliavų ir pagamintų produktų kainos maisto sektoriuje? Kaip įvertinti kainų disproporciją tarp senųjų ir naujųjų ES šalių? Ar turime ir ar ilgai turėsime tam tikrą konkurencinį pranašumą ES maisto produktų rinkoje? Ar naujos BŽŪP paramos priemonės yra pakankamai geros sukurti palankią aplinką konkurencingumui? Kaip įvertinti maisto produktų rinkos iškreipimus bendrojoje rinkoje? Pagal kainų konvergencijos teoriją žaliavų ir pagamintų produktų kainos yra netiesiogiai priklausomos nuo makroekonominės ir tiesiogiai - nuo mikroekonominės aplinkos. On 1 May 2004, ten former candidate countries became new members of the European Union. The new situation on the common market will bring along not only positive developments, but also reveal new weaknesses. The article is based on the final results of two research projects: Possibilities of Balancing Rural Economy Prior to and after Accession to the European Union (Estonian Scientific Foundation, Grant No. 4693) and Agricultural Sector in the member states of EU and Newly Associated States: Econometric Modelling for Projections and Analysis of EU policies on Agriculture, Forestry and the Environment (AG-MEMOD Partnership, 5th Framework Programme). On the background of price convergence we need to get right answers to the following key questions: Which are the main factors affecting food prices development after accession? How fast will input and output prices converge in the food sector? How to evaluate the disproportion of prices between the old and the newly associated states? Have we and how long will we have certain competitive advantages on the EU food market? Are the new CAP support measures good enough to create the favourable environment for competitiveness? How to evaluate the food market distortions on the Common Market? According to the prices convergence theory, the input and output prices are indirectly dependent on the macroeconomics and directly on the microeconomics environment.

This synthesis report focuses on the evolution of agricultural market and trade policies in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) candidate countries in the period 1997 to 2001. The developments were crucially influenced by (OECD, 2000a): • the situation in world agricultural markets; • the overall macroeconomic development in the countries considered; • the prospective EU accession; • bringing domestic agricultural policy in line with the Uruguay Agreement on Agriculture (URAA). High 1997 agricultural prices on world commodity markets were followed by a marked depression in 1998. With the exemption of milk products this trend continued in 1999. Likewise the economic and financial crisis in Russia had a considerable impact on agricultural policies. It hit the regions´ exports resulting in a decline in industrial as well as agricultural output1. Thus, compared to the previous years most of the CEE candidate countries experienced a slow down or even negative rates of growth in their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 1998 and 1999. In addition those countries felt increased budgetary pressures. Agricultural market and trade policies largely reacted to these developments. Border protection was increased in many countries in 1998. This was combined in some cases with export subsidies, and ad hoc producer aids to mitigate the adverse effects. The prospect of EU accession also had an influence on the agricultural policy design in the region with many countries implementing EU-type policy instruments. Thus, the importance of per hectare and per head payments increased in the region, quota like measures were implemented in some countries and as part of this development Estonia introduced tariffs for agro-food imports. Finally, many countries also continued to adjust their policies to comply with their commitments agreed to in the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Despite these general tendencies there are also differences in the development of agricultural policies between the various CEE candidates. Chapter 2 therefore provides an overview of the changes of agricultural market and trade policies in each of the 10 accession countries. It addresses the policy issues market access (e.g. tariffs, special safeguard measures), export subsidies (value and quantities) and domestic support (intervention policies, direct payments, input subsidies, production quotas). Chapter 3 provides a brief assessment of recent policy developments in the region in the light of EU accession and WTO commitments. The development of prices and values, e.g. export subsidies, agricultural support expenditure, were presented in the background papers provided by the country experts in current prices in national currencies. In this synthesis report they are in addition converted in Euro. This firstly allows for a better comparison among the CEE candidate countries as well as between those countries and the EU. Some of the accession countries still suffer from high inflation and thus a strong depreciation of their currency. Thus secondly, the conversion to Euros allows the comparisons to be made in real terms.

Käesolev magistritöö eesmärgiks oli leida EL ÜPP toetuste osatähtsus erinevat tootmistüüpi põllumajandustootjate majandusparameetritele ning mõju põllumajandusettevõttete majandustulemustele EL liikmesmaades. Tulenevalt uurimistöö eesmärkidest ja ülesannetest analüüsiti toetuste osatähtsust ja mõju nelja erineva tootmistüübiga (teravilja ja piimatootjad ning, veise- ja seakasvatajad) põllumajandusettevõtetes. Analüüs teostati kasutades EL FADN avaliku andmebaasi sügavalt spetsialiseerunud tootjate lõikes. FADN andmebaasi valimi põhjal genereeriti Exceli keskkonnas aegridade andmekogu, mille abil on koostatud enamus töös esitatud tabelitest ja joonistest. Erinevat tootmistüüpi ettevõtted positsioneeriti EL liikmesriikide majandusparameetrite lõikes nii staatilises (2011-2012) kui dünaamilises (2004-2012) plaanis. Tulemused avaldati EL liikmesmaade ja analüüsitud tootmistüüpide lõikes (toetused loomühiku või kasutuses olnud maa hektaril ning kogutoodangu, vahetarbimis ja brutolisandväärtuse ühiku kohta). Magistritöö põhihüpoteesiks oli toetuste osakaalu järk-järguline vähenemine põllumajandustootjate majandusparameetrites ning nende ühtlustumine vanade ja uute liikmesmaade vahel. Hüpotees leidis tõestuse teraviljakasvatuses osaliselt tõestus oli leitud seakasvatuses ja piimatootmises. ning kinnitust pole leidnud veisekasvatuses. Regressioonanalüüsi käigus selgitati toetuste mõju põllumajandustootja majandustulemustele. Seakasvatuses toetused ei avaldanud mõju mitte ühele majandusparameetrile, teraviljakasvatuses toetused pole mõjutanud brutolisandväärtust, teistes tootmistüüpides toetused mõjutasid kõiki uurimistöös käsitlevaid majandusparameetreid. Käesolev uuring annab ülevaate EL ÜPP senisest toimimisest, turumoonutustes ja liikmesriikide tootjate positsioneerimisest toetuste osatähtsuse ja mõju hinnangute alusel. Toetuste prognoos võimaldas hinnata ühelt poolt muutusi, mis on ette näha uuel EL ÜPP arenguperioodil ning määratleda toetustasemete ühtlustumise kvantitatiivsed trendid uutes ja vanades liikmesmaades aastaks 2021. Edasist uurimistööd võiks täiendada järgmistes toetustega seotud valdkondades: mastaabi efekti mõju analüüs ja hindamine EL ÜPP raamistikus väljamakstud toetuste valdkonnas; täiendavate, erinevatel alustel genereeritud toetuste arengustsenaariumite väljatöötamine arvestades EL ÜPP muutustega uuel arenguperioodil; mida annaks ja millised oleks alternatiivid olemasolevate toetussüsteemide täiustamiseks. The purpose of present MA thesis is to find EU CAP impact and rate of subsidies on the economic results of different farm types in European Union countries. According to research objectives and tasks was analyzed subsidies rate and impact in four different farm types (crop, cattle, pig and dairy farming). Based on FADN public database sample in Excel was generated time series, with the help of which was prepared most of tabels and figures of present thesis. Various types of farming were positioned by EU Member States economic parameters as in statical (2011-2012) as also in dynamical plan. The results are published by type of production by Member State (subsidies per: livestock unit, utilized hectare of land, total output, intermediate consumption, gross farm income). MA thesis hypothesis that on long-term perspective share of subsidies in farmer economic results and convergence between old and new member states was proved in crop farming, partly proved in pig and dairy farming and in cattle farming present hypothesis was not confirmed. Regression analysis showed the impact of subsidies on farmer’s economical results. Pig farming economic parameters were not influenced by subsidies, in crop farming subsidies did not impact on gross farm income and in other type of farms subsidies impact on all considered economic parameters. This study provides an overview of the functioning EU CAP, market distortions and Member States farmers positions by assesment rate and impact of subsidies. Forecast of subsidies gave possibility to assess changes, with which EU CAP will face in new development period. Also with forecast was identified support level convergence quantitative trends in old and new member states by 2021. Future research could be complemented on following topics: scale effect analysis and evaluation within EU CAP paid subsidies; subsidies generation with respect to different development scenarious taking into account EU CAP changes in new budget period; which kind of alternatives could improve existing support systems.

Käesolev bakalaureusetöö on koostatud eesmärgiga välja töötada universaalne mudel erinevate majandusparameetrite (hinnad, kulud toetused jne) konvergentsi analüüsiks ning testida mudeli rakendatavust Euroopa Liidu liikmesmaades ühtse põllumajanduspoliitika raamistikus kehtestatud otsetoetuste hindamisel aastatel 2005-2021. Uurimistöö käigus valiti välja ja testiti kahte indikaatorit: konvergentsi indeks (CI) ja konvergentsi koefitsient (CC). CI võimaldab hinnata kahe riigi (ühenduse) vahelist majandusprotsesside konvergentsi või divergentsi. CC väärtuse alusel saab otsustada uuritava ning referentsina kasutatava riigi majandusparameetrite ühtlustumise või lahknemise üle. Majandusparameetrite konvergentsi hindamise mudel on koostatud Exceli keskkonnas ning on koos käesoleva bakalaureusetööga kättesaadav MOODLE keskkonnas. Mudeli käivitamiseks valitakse Exceli standardfunktsiooni LOOK-UP vahendusel töölehel „NÄITAJAD“ omavahel võrreldavate majandusparameetrite (toetused, hinnad, kulud, stsenaariumid jne) aegridade akronüümid. Mudel genereerib automaatselt konvergentsi iseloomustavad näitajad (CI ja CC) ja nende mõõdikute muutumist iseloomustavad visualiseeritud graafikud (töölehed „CI“ ja „CC“). Viimaste abil on võimalik uurida valitud majaparameetrite muutusi, liikmesriikide ühtlustumist või lahknemist nii riigiti kui ka Euroopa Liidu tunnustatud keskmiste näitajatega (EL15; EL12; EL27) ning visualiseerida erinevaid prognoose ning stsenaariume. Mudeli testimisel peeti silmas kahte eesmärki. Esiteks, tuli leida vastus küsimusele kas väljatöötatud mõõdikud on piisavalt adekvaatsed ühtlustumisprotsesside kirjeldamiseks ning teiseks, uurida põllumajandustootjate jaoks hetkel ühte aktuaalsemat teemat – otsetoetuste ühtlustumise taset ja kiirust vanades ja uutes EL liikmesmaades. Vastus esimesele küsimusele on üldjuhul jaatav. Otsetoetuste analüüsi põhjal leiti, et ühtse pindalatoetuste konvergents toimub, kuid on liikmesriikide vahel sageli erineva suuna ja kiirusega. The purpose of present BA thesis is to elaborate convergence computing tool for analyzing convergence of various economic parameters (prices, costs, supports etc.) and testing applicability of the model on the field of direct support in European Union member states within Common Agricultural Policy framework (2005-2021). In the research two indicators have been selected and tested: the convergence index (CI) and the coefficient of convergence (CC). CI allows evaluating convergence or divergence of economic parameters presented by two countries. With the help of CC it is possible to decide whether economic parameters of two different countries converge or diverge. The convergence assessment model has been prepared in the Excel environment and it is available together with the present BA thesis in the MOODLE environment. To run the model the acronyms of time series of mutually comparable economic parameters need to be selected using standard function LOOK-UP on the worksheet „NÄITAJAD“. The convergence indicators (CI and CC) and their metrics volatility, which is presented in graphs, are generated automatically by the model. With the graphs it is possible to study changes of selected parameters, convergence or divergence of member states by country as well as with European Union recognized averages (EU15, EU12, and EU27) and visualize different assumptions and scenarios. There were two goals while model had been tested. First, it had to be answered to the question whether the elaborated metrics are adequate enough to describe convergence processes and, secondly, to investigate the farmers’ main issue – the level and speed of convergence of direct support in old and new EU member states. The answer to the first question is affirmative. On the basis of the analysis of direct support it had been found that the single area payment convergence takes place, but it differs by direction and speed by Member States.