1. Methodology for modelling the new COVID-19 pandemic spread and implementation to European countries
- Author
-
Stavros Maltezos
- Subjects
0301 basic medicine ,Microbiology (medical) ,Physics - Physics and Society ,2019-20 coronavirus outbreak ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ,Gross Domestic Product ,030106 microbiology ,Large population ,FOS: Physical sciences ,Epidemic ,Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) ,Biology ,Microbiology ,03 medical and health sciences ,Pandemic ,Genetics ,Econometrics ,Humans ,Computer Simulation ,Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution ,Molecular Biology ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,Population Density ,Models, Statistical ,SARS-CoV-2 ,Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) ,Outbreak ,COVID-19 ,Semi-Gaussian ,Pathogenicity ,Europe ,030104 developmental biology ,Infectious Diseases ,FOS: Biological sciences ,SIR ,Parametrization ,Research Paper ,Forecasting - Abstract
After the breakout of the disease caused by the new virus COVID-19, the mitigation stage has been reached in most of the countries in the world. During this stage, a more accurate data analysis of the daily reported cases and other parameters became possible for the European countries and has been performed in this work. Based on a proposed parametrization model appropriate for implementation to an epidemic in a large population, we focused on the disease spread and we studied the obtained curves, as well as, we investigated probable correlations between the country's characteristics and the parameters of the parametrization. We have also developed a methodology for coupling our model to the SIR-based models determining the basic and the effective reproductive number referring to the parameter space. The obtained results and conclusions could be useful in the case of a recurrence of this repulsive disease in the future., 8 pages, 6 figures and 2 tables
- Published
- 2021