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The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates on-road vehicles emissions using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES). We developed updated ammonia emission rates for MOVES based on road-side exhaust emission measurements of light-duty gasoline and heavy-duty diesel vehicles. The resulting nationwide on-road vehicle ammonia emissions are 1.8, 2.1, 1.8, and 1.6 times higher than the MOVES3 estimates for calendar years 2010, 2017, 2024, and 2035, respectively, primarily due to an increase in light-duty gasoline vehicle NH 3 emission rates. We conducted an air quality simulation using the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQv5.3.2) model to evaluate the sensitivity of modeled ammonia and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations in calendar year 2017 using the updated on-road vehicle ammonia emissions. The average monthly urban ammonia ambient concentrations increased by up to 2.3 ppb v in January and 3.0 ppb v in July. The updated on-road NH 3 emission rates resulted in better agreement of modeled ammonia concentrations with 2017 annual average ambient ammonia measurements, reducing model bias by 5.8 % in the Northeast region. Modeled average winter PM 2.5 concentrations increased in urban areas, including enhancements of up to 0.5 μg/m 3 in the northeast United States. The updated ammonia emission rates have been incorporated in MOVES4 and will be used in future versions of the NEI and EPA's modeling platforms., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

This study describes a modeling framework, model evaluation, and source apportionment to understand the causes of Los Angeles (LA) air pollution. A few major updates are applied to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with a high spatial resolution (1 km × 1 km). The updates include dynamic traffic emissions based on real-time, on-road information and recent emission factors and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) schemes to represent volatile chemical products (VCPs). Meteorology is well predicted compared to ground-based observations, and the emission rates from multiple sources (i.e., on-road, volatile chemical products, area, point, biogenic, and sea spray) are quantified. Evaluation of the CMAQ model shows that ozone is well predicted despite inaccuracies in nitrogen oxide (NO x ) predictions. Particle matter (PM) is underpredicted compared to concurrent measurements made with an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) in Pasadena. Inorganic aerosol is well predicted, while SOA is underpredicted. Modeled SOA consists of mostly organic nitrates and products from oxidation of alkane-like intermediate volatility organic compounds (IVOCs) and has missing components that behave like less-oxidized oxygenated organic aerosol (LO-OOA). Source apportionment demonstrates that the urban areas of the LA Basin and vicinity are NO x -saturated (VOC-sensitive), with the largest sensitivity of O 3 to changes in VOCs in the urban core. Differing oxidative capacities in different regions impact the nonlinear chemistry leading to PM and SOA formation, which is quantified in this study., Competing Interests: Competing interests. At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. The peer-review process was guided by an independent editor, and the authors also have no other competing interests to declare.

Mobile sources are responsible for a substantial controllable portion of the reactive organic carbon (ROC) emitted to the atmosphere, especially in urban environments of the United States. We update existing methods for calculating mobile source organic particle and vapor emissions in the United States with over a decade of laboratory data that parameterize the volatility and organic aerosol (OA) potential of emissions from on-road vehicles, nonroad engines, aircraft, marine vessels, and locomotives. We find that existing emission factor information from Teflon filters combined with quartz filters collapses into simple relationships and can be used to reconstruct the complete volatility distribution of ROC emissions. This new approach consists of source-specific filter artifact corrections and state-of-the-science speciation including explicit intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs), yielding the first bottom-up volatility-resolved inventory of US mobile source emissions. Using the Community Multiscale Air Quality model, we estimate mobile sources account for 20 %-25 % of the IVOC concentrations and 4.4 %-21.4 % of ambient OA. The updated emissions and air quality model reduce biases in predicting fine-particle organic carbon in winter, spring, and autumn throughout the United States (4.3 %-11.3 % reduction in normalized bias). We identify key uncertain parameters that align with current state-of-the-art research measurement challenges., Competing Interests: Competing interests. At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. The peer-review process was guided by an independent editor, and the authors also have no other competing interests to declare.

Chemical mechanisms describe how emissions of gases and particles evolve in the atmosphere and are used within chemical transport models to evaluate past, current, and future air quality. Thus, a chemical mechanism must provide robust and accurate predictions of air pollutants if it is to be considered for use by regulatory bodies. In this work, we provide an initial evaluation of the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMMv1.0) by assessing CRACMMv1.0 predictions of surface ozone (O 3 ) across the northeastern US during the summer of 2018 within the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. CRACMMv1.0 O 3 predictions of hourly and maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone were lower than those estimated by the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism with aerosol module 6 (RACM2_ae6), which better matched surface network observations in the northeastern US (RACM2_ae6 mean bias of +4.2 ppb for all hours and +4.3 ppb for MDA8; CRACMMv1.0 mean bias of +2.1 ppb for all hours and +2.7 ppb for MDA8). Box model calculations combined with results from CMAQ emission reduction simulations indicated a high sensitivity of O 3 to compounds with biogenic sources. In addition, these calculations indicated the differences between CRACMMv1.0 and RACM2_ae6 O 3 predictions were largely explained by updates to the inorganic rate constants (reflecting the latest assessment values) and by updates to the representation of monoterpene chemistry. Updates to other reactive organic carbon systems between RACM2_ae6 and CRACMMv1.0 also affected ozone predictions and their sensitivity to emissions. Specifically, CRACMMv1.0 benzene, toluene, and xylene chemistry led to efficient NO x cycling such that CRACMMv1.0 predicted controlling aromatics reduces ozone without rural O 3 disbenefits. In contrast, semivolatile and intermediate-volatility alkanes introduced in CRACMMv1.0 acted to suppress O 3 formation across the regional background through the sequestration of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) in organic nitrates. Overall, these analyses showed that the CRACMMv1.0 mechanism within the CMAQ model was able to reasonably simulate ozone concentrations in the northeastern US during the summer of 2018 with similar magnitude and diurnal variation as the current operational Carbon Bond (CB6r3_ae7) mechanism and good model performance compared to recent modeling studies in the literature., Competing Interests: Competing interests. The contact author has declared that none of the authors has any competing interests.

Volatile chemical products (VCP) are an increasingly important source of hydrocarbon and oxygenated volatile organic compound (OVOC) emissions to the atmosphere, and these emissions are likely to play an important role as anthropogenic precursors for secondary organic aerosol (SOA). While the SOA from VCP hydrocarbons is often accounted for in models, the formation, evolution, and properties of SOA from VCP OVOCs remain uncertain. We use environmental chamber data and a kinetic model to develop SOA parameters for 10 OVOCs representing glycols, glycol ethers, esters, oxygenated aromatics, and amines. Model simulations suggest that the SOA mass yields for these OVOCs are of the same magnitude as widely studied SOA precursors (e.g., long-chain alkanes, monoterpenes, and single-ring aromatics), and these yields exhibit a linear correlation with the carbon number of the precursor. When combined with emissions inventories for two megacities in the United States (US) and a US-wide inventory, we find that VCP VOCs react with OH to form 0.8-2.5× as much SOA, by mass, as mobile sources. Hydrocarbons (terpenes, branched and cyclic alkanes) and OVOCs (terpenoids, glycols, glycol ethers) make up 60-75 and 25-40% of the SOA arising from VCP use, respectively. This work contributes to the growing body of knowledge focused on studying VCP VOC contributions to urban air pollution.

Liquid asphalt is a petroleum-derived substance commonly used in construction activities. Recent work has identified lower volatility, reactive organic carbon from asphalt as an overlooked source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursor emissions. Here, we leverage potential emission estimates and usage data to construct a bottom-up inventory of asphalt-related emissions in the United States. In 2018, we estimate that hot-mix, warm-mix, emulsified, cutback, and roofing asphalt generated ~380 Gg (317 Gg - 447 Gg) of organic compound emissions. The impacts of these emissions on anthropogenic SOA and ozone throughout the contiguous United States are estimated using photochemical modeling. In several major cities, asphalt-related emissions can increase modeled summertime SOA, on average, by 0.1 - 0.2 μg m-3 (2-4% of SOA) and may reach up to 0.5 μg m-3 at noontime on select days. The influence of asphalt-related emissions on modeled ozone are generally small (~0.1 ppb). We estimate that asphalt paving-related emissions are half of what they were nearly 50 years ago, largely due to the concerted efforts to reduce emissions from cutback asphalts. If on-road mobile emissions continue their multidecadal decline, contributions of urban SOA from evaporative and non-road mobile sources will continue to grow in relative importance., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest There are no conflicts to declare.

Chemical mechanisms describe the atmospheric transformations of organic and inorganic species and connect air emissions to secondary species such as ozone, fine particles, and hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) like formaldehyde. Recent advances in our understanding of several chemical systems and shifts in the drivers of atmospheric chemistry warrant updates to mechanisms used in chemical transport models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. This work builds on the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism version 2 (RACM2) and develops the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMM) version 1.0, which demonstrates a fully coupled representation of chemistry leading to ozone and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) with consideration of HAPs. CRACMMv1.0 includes 178 gas-phase species, 51 particulate species, and 508 reactions spanning gas-phase and heterogeneous pathways. To support estimation of health risks associated with HAPs, nine species in CRACMM cover 50 % of the total cancer and 60 % of the total non-cancer emission-weighted toxicity estimated for primary HAPs from anthropogenic and biomass burning sources in the US, with the coverage of toxicity higher (>80 %) when secondary formaldehyde and acrolein are considered. In addition, new mechanism species were added based on the importance of their emissions for the ozone, organic aerosol, or atmospheric burden of total reactive organic carbon (ROC): sesquiterpenes, furans, propylene glycol, alkane-like low- to intermediate-volatility organic compounds (9 species), low- to intermediate-volatility oxygenated species (16 species), intermediate-volatility aromatic hydrocarbons (2 species), and slowly reacting organic carbon. Intermediate- and lower-volatility organic compounds were estimated to increase the coverage of anthropogenic and biomass burning ROC emissions by 40 % compared to current operational mechanisms. Autoxidation, a gas-phase reaction particularly effective in producing SOA, was added for C 10 and larger alkanes, aromatic hydrocarbons, sesquiterpenes, and monoterpene systems including second-generation aldehydes. Integrating the radical and SOA chemistry put additional constraints on both systems and enabled the implementation of previously unconsidered SOA pathways from phenolic and furanone compounds, which were predicted to account for ~ 30 % of total aromatic hydrocarbon SOA under typical atmospheric conditions. CRACMM organic aerosol species were found to span the atmospherically relevant range of species carbon number, number of oxygens per carbon, and oxidation state with a slight high bias in the number of hydrogens per carbon. In total, 11 new emitted species were implemented as precursors to SOA compared to current CMAQv5.3.3 representations, resulting in a bottom-up prediction of SOA, which is required for accurate source attribution and the design of control strategies. CRACMMv1.0 is available in CMAQv5.4., Competing Interests: Competing interests. The contact author has declared that none of the authors has any competing interests.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) has developed a set of annual North American emissions data for multiple air pollutants across 18 broad source categories for 2002 through 2017. The sixteen new annual emissions inventories were developed using consistent input data and methods across all years. When a consistent method or tool was not available for a source category, emissions were estimated by scaling data from the EPA's 2017 National Emissions Inventory with scaling factors based on activity data and/or emissions control information. The emissions datasets are designed to support regional air quality modeling for a wide variety of human health and ecological applications. The data were developed to support simulations of the EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality model but can also be used by other regional scale air quality models. The emissions data are one component of EPA's Air Quality Time Series Project which also includes air quality modeling inputs (meteorology, initial conditions, boundary conditions) and outputs (e.g., ozone, PM 2.5 and constituent species, wet and dry deposition) for the Conterminous US at a 12 km horizontal grid spacing., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships which have or could be perceived to have influenced the work reported in this article., (© 2023 The Author(s).)

Volatile chemical products (VCPs) are a significant source of reactive organic carbon emissions in the United States with a substantial fraction (>20% by mass) serving as secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors. Here, we incorporate a new nationwide VCP inventory into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with VCP-specific updates to better model air quality impacts. Model results indicate that VCPs mostly enhance anthropogenic SOA in densely populated areas with population-weighted annual average SOA increasing 15-30% in Southern California and New York City due to VCP emissions (contribution of 0.2-0.5 μg m -3 ). Annually, VCP emissions enhance total population-weighted PM 2.5 by ∼5% in California, ∼3% in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, and 1-2% in most other states. While the maximum daily 8 h ozone enhancements from VCP emissions are more modest, their influence can cause a several ppb increase on select days in major cities. Printing Inks, Cleaning Products, and Paints and Coatings product use categories contribute ∼75% to the modeled VCP-derived SOA and Cleaning Products, Paints and Coatings, and Personal Care Products contribute ∼81% to the modeled VCP-derived ozone. Overall, VCPs enhance multiple criteria pollutants throughout the United States with the largest impacts in urban cores.

Exposure to ozone and fine particle (PM 2.5 ) air pollution results in premature death. These pollutants are predominantly secondary in nature and can form from nitrogen oxides (NO X ), sulfur oxides (SO X ), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Predicted health benefits for emission reduction scenarios often incompletely account for VOCs as precursors as well as the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) component of PM 2.5 . Here, we show that anthropogenic VOC emission reductions are more than twice as effective as equivalent fractional reductions of SO X or NO X at reducing air pollution-associated cardiorespiratory mortality in the United States. A 25% reduction in anthropogenic VOC emissions from 2016 levels is predicted to avoid 13,000 premature deaths per year, and most (85%) of the VOC-reduction benefits result from reduced SOA with the remainder from ozone. While NO X (-5.7 ± 0.2 % yr -1 ) and SO X (-12 ± 1 % yr -1 ) emissions have declined precipitously across the U.S. since 2002, anthropogenic VOC emissions (-1.8 ± 0.3 % yr -1 ) and concentrations of non-methane organic carbon (-2.4 ± 1.0 % yr -1 ) have changed less. This work indicates preferentially controlling VOCs could yield significant benefits to human health.

Volatile chemical products (VCPs) are commonly-used consumer and industrial items that are an important source of anthropogenic emissions. Organic compounds from VCPs evaporate on atmospherically relevant time scales and include many species that are secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors. However, the chemistry leading to SOA, particularly that of intermediate volatility organic compounds (IVOCs), has not been fully represented in regional-scale models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, which tend to underpredict SOA concentrations in urban areas. Here we develop a model to represent SOA formation from VCP emissions. The model incorporates a new VCP emissions inventory and employs three new classes of emissions: siloxanes, oxygenated IVOCs, and nonoxygenated IVOCs. VCPs are estimated to produce 1.67 μg m -3 of noontime SOA, doubling the current model predictions and reducing the SOA mass concentration bias from -75% to -58% when compared to observations in Los Angeles in 2010. While oxygenated and nonoxygenated intermediate volatility VCP species are emitted in similar quantities, SOA formation is dominated by the nonoxygenated IVOCs. Formaldehyde and SOA show similar relationships to temperature and bias signatures indicating common sources and/or chemistry. This work suggests that VCPs contribute up to half of anthropogenic SOA in Los Angeles and models must better represent SOA precursors from VCPs to predict the urban enhancement of SOA., Competing Interests: Competing Interests The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Fine particle pollution, PM 2.5 , is associated with increased risk of death from cardiorespiratory diseases. A multidecadal shift in the United States (U.S.) PM 2.5 composition towards organic aerosol as well as advances in predictive algorithms for secondary organic aerosol (SOA) allows for novel examinations of the role of PM 2.5 components on mortality. Here we show SOA is strongly associated with county-level cardiorespiratory death rates in the U.S. independent of the total PM 2.5 mass association with the largest associations located in the southeastern U.S. Compared to PM 2.5 , county-level variability in SOA across the U.S. is associated with 3.5× greater per capita county-level cardiorespiratory mortality. On a per mass basis, SOA is associated with a 6.5× higher rate of mortality than PM 2.5 , and biogenic and anthropogenic carbon sources both play a role in the overall SOA association with mortality. Our results suggest reducing the health impacts of PM 2.5 requires consideration of SOA., (© 2021. This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply.)

Volatile chemical products (VCPs) are an increasingly important source of anthropogenic reactive organic carbon (ROC) emissions. Among these sources are everyday items, such as personal care products, general cleaners, architectural coatings, pesticides, adhesives, and printing inks. Here, we develop VCPy, a new framework to model organic emissions from VCPs throughout the United States, including spatial allocation to regional and local scales. Evaporation of a species from a VCP mixture in the VCPy framework is a function of the compound-specific physiochemical properties that govern volatilization and the timescale relevant for product evaporation. We introduce two terms to describe these processes: evaporation timescale and use timescale. Using this framework, predicted national per capita organic emissions from VCPs are 9.5 kg per person per year (6.4 kg C per person per year) for 2016, which translates to 3.05 Tg (2.06 Tg C), making VCPs a dominant source of anthropogenic organic emissions in the United States. Uncertainty associated with this framework and sensitivity to select parameters were characterized through Monte Carlo analysis, resulting in a 95 % confidence interval of national VCP emissions for 2016 of 2.61-3.53 Tg (1.76-2.38 Tg C). This nationwide total is broadly consistent with the U.S. EPA's 2017 National Emission Inventory (NEI); however, county-level and categorical estimates can differ substantially from NEI values. VCPy predicts higher VCP emissions than the NEI for approximately half of all counties, with 5 % of all counties having greater than 55 % higher emissions. Categorically, application of the VCPy framework yields higher emissions for personal care products (150 %) and paints and coatings (25 %) when compared to the NEI, whereas pesticides (-54 %) and printing inks (-13 %) feature lower emissions. An observational evaluation indicates emissions of key species from VCPs are reproduced with high fidelity using the VCPy framework (normalized mean bias of -13 % with r = 0.95). Sector-wide, the effective secondary organic aerosol yield and maximum incremental reactivity of VCPs are 5.3 % by mass and 1.58 gO 3 g -1 , respectively, indicating VCPs are an important, and likely to date underrepresented, source of secondary pollution in urban environments., Competing Interests: Competing interests. The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.