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Successful remanufacturing of mobile phones must meet the challenges of continuously falling prices for new phone models, short life cycles, disassembly of unfriendly designs and prohibiting transport, labor and machining costs in high-wage countries. A generic remanufacturing plan for mobile phones is developed. For the planning of remanufacturing capacities and production programs, a linear optimization model is introduced. To support the planner in the periodic adaptation of an existing remanufacturing facility under quickly changing product, process, and market constraints, discrete-event simulation is applied. Uncertainties regarding quantity and conditions of mobile phones, reliability of capacities, processing times, and demand are considered. The simulation model is generated by an algorithm using results from the linear optimization approach. Keywords: Mobile phone remanufacturing; Production program planning; Linear optimization; Discrete-event simulation, 1. Introduction Today, the remanufacturing of expensive, long-living investment goods, e.g. machine tools, jet fans, military equipment or automobile engines, is extended to a large number of consumer goods with [...]

Myrlene Sanon Aigbogun,1 Robert A Stellhorn,1 Christina S Pao,1 Stephen L Seliger2 1Otsuka Pharmaceutical Development & Commercialization, Inc, Princeton, NJ, USA; 2University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USACorrespondence: Stephen L SeligerUniversity of Maryland School of Medicine, 10 N. Greene Street, Baltimore, MD, 21201, USATel +410 605-7000 x5231Fax +410 328-5685Email sseliger@som.umaryland.eduBackground: Progression of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is highly variable, with some patients progressing rapidly to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Abdominal imaging is an important modality for verifying diagnosis in patients at risk for rapidly progressing ADPKD, targeting them for early treatment that could slow onset of ESRD. Published literature is limited on the real-world abdominal imaging utilization patterns in ADPKD.Methods: A retrospective healthcare administrative claims analysis examining abdominal imaging scans occurring from January 1, 2014, through June 30, 2017, was conducted using the IBM MarketScan® commercial and Medicare supplemental databases. Patients in the United States who were at least 18 years old and had at least 1 inpatient claim or 2 outpatient claims (with different dates of service) with an ADPKD diagnosis code, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM codes 753.12 [polycystic kidney, unspecified type] and 753.13 [polycystic kidney, autosomal dominant] and/or Tenth Revision (ICD-10-CM codes Q61.2 [polycystic kidney, adult type] and Q61.3 [polycystic kidney, unspecified]) were included.Results: Of the 4637 patients with ADPKD (mean age, 51.2 years [SD = 15.52]), 59% had ≥ 1 abdominal imaging scan. Of these patients, 46% had ≥ 1 computed tomography (CT) scan, 25% had ≥ 1 ultrasound, 10% had ≥ 1 magnetic resonance imaging scan. Among the 1754 patients (38%) with chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage information, CT imaging was more frequent in later stages (31% stage 1 versus 68% stage 5). The proportion of patients undergoing at least 1 CT or MRI scan increased with disease severity (37% in stage 1, 42% in stage 2, 48% in stage 3, 56% in stage 4, and 71% in stage 5).Conclusion: Results of this analysis support the need for further investigation into abdominal imaging utilization in managing patients with ADPKD. Future research could clarify barriers and increase access to imaging, which has the potential to inform risk stratification, help patients delay dialysis or transplantation associated with ESRD, and help health systems avoid the costs associated with ESRD.Keywords: polycystic kidney, autosomal dominant, kidney diseases, cystic, MRI, CT scan, ultrasound

Background: The Covid-19 pandemic greatly affected those with chronic diseases, impacting healthcare access and healthcare seeking behaviors. The impact of the pandemic on adults with Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease (ADPKD) has not been investigated., Methods: Participants were recruited from a cohort of 239 ADPKD patients enrolled in a longitudinal study at the University of Maryland. Patients on renal replacement therapy were excluded. N = 66 patients participated in a phone questionnaire from June 2022-December 2022 about ADPKD-related complications, concern about contracting Covid-19, healthcare-seeking behaviors, and telehealth utilization before and after March 2020., Results: N = 34 (51.5%) of participants reported a positive Covid-19 test result. N = 29 (44%) expressed high concern of contracting Covid-19. Those who avoided medical care at least once (N = 17, 25.8%) had similar demographics and ADPKD severity to those who did not, but reported greater telehealth utilization (88.2% vs. 42.9%, p = 0.002), greater use of non-prescribed medication for Covid-19 treatment or prevention (35.3% vs. 8.2%, p = 0.01), and were more likely to contract Covid-19 (76.5% vs. 42.9%, p = 0.02). Among the N = 53 who reported very good or excellent ADPKD disease management pre-pandemic, N = 47(89%) reported no significant change during the pandemic., Conclusions: In this highly educated, high-income cohort with a mean age of 46.1 years, most people reported well-managed ADPKD prior to the pandemic. This may explain why less than half of participants expressed high concern for contracting Covid-19. Overall, there was no significant pandemic-related decline in self-reported ADPKD management. This was likely due to this cohort's excellent access to, and uptake of, telehealth services. Notably, 1 in 4 participants reported healthcare avoidant behavior, the effect of which may only be seen years from now. Future studies should investigate potential impacts of avoidant behaviors, as well as expand investigation to a more diverse cohort whose care may not have been as easily transitioned to telehealth., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the leading inheritable cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Mortality data specific to patients with ADPKD is currently lacking; thus, the aim of this study was to estimate mortality in patients with ADPKD., Methods: We analyzed data from the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) for patients with ADPKD available during the study period of 01/01/2014-12/31/2016, which included a cohort of patients with non-ESRD chronic kidney disease (CKD) and a cohort of patients with ESRD. Mortality rates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated overall and by age group, sex, and race for the full dataset and for a subset of patients aged ≥ 65 years. Adjusted mortality hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox regression modeling by age group, sex, race, and CKD stage (i.e., non-ESRD CKD stages 1-5) or ESRD treatment (i.e., dialysis and transplant)., Results: A total of 1,936 patients with ADPKD and non-ESRD CKD and 37,461 patients with ADPKD and ESRD were included in the analysis. Age-adjusted mortality was 18.4 deaths per 1,000 patient-years in the non-ESRD CKD cohort and 37.4 deaths per 1,000 patient-years in the ESRD cohort. As expected, among the non-ESRD CKD cohort, patients in CKD stages 4 and 5 had a higher risk of death than patients in stage 3 (HR = 1.59 for stage 4 and HR = 2.71 for stage 5). Among the ESRD cohort, patients receiving dialysis were more likely to experience death than patients who received transplant (HR = 2.36). Age-adjusted mortality among patients aged ≥ 65 years in the non-ESRD CKD cohort was highest for Black patients (82.7 deaths per 1,000 patient-years), whereas age-adjusted mortality among patients aged ≥ 65 years in the ESRD cohort was highest for White patients (136.1 deaths per 1,000 patient-years)., Conclusions: Mortality rates specific to patients aged ≥ 65 years suggest racial differences in mortality among these patients in both non-ESRD CKD and ESRD cohorts. These data fill an important knowledge gap in mortality estimates for patients with ADPKD in the United States., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Abnormalities in myocardial substrate, including diffuse and replacement fibrosis, increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Data are sparse on whether electrocardiogram (ECG) measures, coupled with circulating biomarkers, may aid in identifying cardiac fibrosis. This study aimed to determine whether 12-lead ECG and biomarkers together augment the prediction of cardiac fibrosis in participants who are free of known CVD. This is a cross-sectional analysis in the MESA (Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) study at visit 5 (2010 to 2012), with measurements of biomarkers (cardiac troponin T and growth differentiation factor-15), gadolinium-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, and ECG. Logistic regression associations of ECG measures with cardiac magnetic resonance surrogates of fibrosis (highest quartile extracellular volume [interstitial fibrosis] and late gadolinium enhancement [replacement fibrosis]) were adjusted for demographics and risk factors. Using the C-statistic, we evaluated whether adding ECG measures and biomarkers to clinical characteristics improved the prediction of either type of fibrosis. There were 1,170 eligible participants (aged 67.1 ± 8.6 years). Among the ECG measures, QRS duration (odds ratio [OR] 1.41 per 10 ms, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10 to 1.81), major ST-T abnormalities (OR 3.03, 95%CI 1.20, 7.65), and abnormal QRS-T angle (OR 6.32, 95%CI 3.00, 13.33) were associated with replacement fibrosis, whereas only abnormal QRS-T angle (OR 3.05, 95%CI,1.69, 5.48) was associated with interstitial fibrosis. ECG markers, in addition to clinical characteristics, improved the prediction of replacement fibrosis (p = 0.002) but not interstitial fibrosis. The addition of cardiac troponin T and growth differentiation factor-15 to the ECG findings did not significantly improve the model discrimination for either type of cardiac fibrosis. In CVD free participants, simple ECG measures are associated with replacement fibrosis and interstitial fibrosis. The addition of these measures improves identification of replacement but not interstitial fibrosis. These findings may help refine the identification of myocardial scar in the general population., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest Dr. deFilippi has received funding for Inova to measure biomarkers from Roche Diagnostics. The remaining authors have no conflicts of interest to declare., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Circulating biomarkers may be useful in understanding prognosis and treatment efficacy in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. In the VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction) trial, vericiguat, a soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator, decreased the primary outcome of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. We evaluated biomarkers of cardiac injury, inflammation, and renal function for associations with outcomes and vericiguat treatment effect., Methods and Results: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), interleukin-6 (IL-6), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and cystatin C were measured at baseline and 16 weeks. Associations of biomarkers with the primary outcome and its components were estimated. Interaction with study treatment was tested. Changes in biomarkers over time were examined by study treatment. One or more biomarkers were measured in 4652 (92%) of 5050 participants at baseline and 4063 (81%) at 16 weeks. After adjustment, higher values of hs-cTnT, growth differentiation factor-15, and interleukin-6 were associated with the primary outcome, independent of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide. Higher hs-cTnT values were associated with a hazard ratio per log standard deviation of 1.21 (95% confidence interval 1.14-1.27). A treatment interaction with vericiguat was evident with hs-cTnT and cardiovascular death (P = .04), but not HF hospitalization (P = .38). All biomarkers except cystatin C decreased over 16 weeks and no relationship between treatment assignment and changes in biomarker levels was observed., Conclusions: hs-cTnT, growth differentiation factor-15, and interleukin-6 levels were associated with risk of the primary outcome in VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction). Uniquely, lower hs-cTnT was associated with a lower rate of cardiovascular death but not HF hospitalization after treatment with vericiguat., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Subclinical abnormalities in myocardial structure (stage B heart failure) may be identified by cardiac and non-organ specific biomarkers. The associations of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) with cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) interstitial fibrosis (extracellular volume [ECV]) is unknown and for GDF-15 the association with replacement (late gadolinium enhancement [LGE]) is also unknown. GDF-15 is a systemic biomarker also released by myocytes associated with fibrosis and inflammation. We sought to define the associations of hs-cTnT and GDF-15 with these CMR fibrosis measures in the MESA cohort., Methods: We measured hs-cTnT and GDF-15 in MESA participants free of cardiovascular disease at exam 5. CMR measurements were complete in 1737 for LGE and 1258 for ECV assessment. We estimated the association of each biomarker with LGE and increased ECV (4th quartile) using logistic regression, adjusted for demographics and risk factors., Results: Mean age of the participants was 68 ± 9 years. Unadjusted, both biomarkers were associated with LGE, but after adjustment only hs-cTnT concentrations remained significant (4th vs. 1st quartile OR] 7.5, 95% CI: 2.1, 26.6). For interstitial fibrosis both biomarkers were associated with 4th quartile ECV, but the association was attenuated compared to replacement fibrosis. After adjustment, only hs-cTnT concentrations remained significant (1st to 4th quartile OR 1.7, 95%CI: 1.1, 2.8)., Conclusion: Our findings identify that both interstitial and replacement fibrosis are associated with myocyte cell death/injury, but GDF-15 a non-organ specific biomarker prognostic for incident cardiovascular disease is not associated with preclinical evidence of cardiac fibrosis., Competing Interests: CdF received research funding to Inova from Abbott Diagnostics, Fujirebio, Ortho Clinical Diagnostics, Quidel, Roche Diagnostics, and Siemens Healthineers; independent of Inova he consults for Fujirebio, Ortho Diagnostics, Quidel, Roche Diagnostics, and Siemens Healthineers. CdF also receives unrelated research funding from the NIH R01HL154768, R01HL151293, R21AG072095, and 1UL1TR003015. RC received research funding to the University of Maryland from Roche Diagnostics, Siemens Healthineers, Becton Dickinson, Abbott, Beckman Coulter, and PixCell Medical; consulting/honoraria for Roche Diagnostics, Siemens Healthineers, Becton Dickinson, Beckman Coulter, SphingoTec, and PixCell Medical. LD was consulting for Quidel, Roche, and Siemens; has served on clinical endpoint adjudication committees for Abbott, Applied Therapeutics, Quidel, and Siemens. SS received research funding to the University of Maryland funding from Roche Diagnostics. SS, RC, and CdF were co-owners on a patent awarded to the University of Maryland (US Patent Application Number: 15/309,754) entitled: “Methods for Assessing Differential Risk for Developing Heart Failure”. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 deFilippi, Tran, Gattani, Daniels, Shah, Ilkhanoff, Christenson, Lima and Seliger.)

Background: Tolvaptan was approved in the United States in 2018 for patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) at risk of rapid progression as assessed in a 3-year phase 3 clinical trial (TEMPO 3:4). An extension study (TEMPO 4:4) showed continued delay in progression at 2 years, and a trial in patients with later-stage disease (REPRISE) provided confirmatory evidence of efficacy. Given the relatively shorter-term duration of the clinical trials, estimating the longer-term benefit associated with tolvaptan via extrapolation of the treatment effect is an important undertaking., Methods: A model was developed to simulate a cohort of patients with ADPKD at risk of rapid progression and predict their long-term outcomes using an algorithm organized around the Mayo Risk Classification system, which has five subclasses (1A through 1E) based on estimated kidney growth rates. The model base-case population represents 1280 patients enrolled in TEMPO 3:4 beginning in chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages G1, G2, and G3 across Mayo subclasses 1C, 1D, and 1E. The algorithm was used to predict longer-term natural history health outcomes. The estimated treatment effect of tolvaptan from TEMPO 3:4 was applied to the natural history to predict the longer-term treatment benefit of tolvaptan. For the cohort, analyzed once reflecting natural history and once assuming treatment with tolvaptan, the model estimated lifetime progression through CKD stages, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and death., Results: When treated with tolvaptan, the model cohort was predicted to experience a 3.1-year delay of ESRD (95% confidence interval: 1.8 to 4.4), approximately a 23% improvement over the estimated 13.7 years for patients not receiving tolvaptan. Patients beginning tolvaptan treatment in CKD stages G1, G2, and G3 were predicted to experience estimated delays of ESRD, compared with patients not receiving tolvaptan, of 3.8 years (21% improvement), 3.0 years (24% improvement), and 2.1 years (28% improvement), respectively., Conclusions: The model estimated that patients treated with tolvaptan versus no treatment spent more time in earlier CKD stages and had later onset of ESRD. Findings highlight the potential long-term value of early intervention with tolvaptan in patients at risk of rapid ADPKD progression., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: People with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk for cognitive impairment and progressive cognitive decline. Retention of protein-bound organic solutes that are normally removed by tubular secretion is hypothesized to contribute to cognitive impairment in CKD., Methods: We followed 2362 participants who were initially free of cognitive impairment and stroke in the prospective Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study. We estimated tubular secretory clearance by the 24-hour kidney clearances of eight endogenous solutes that are primarily eliminated by tubular secretion. CRIC study investigators assessed participants' cognitive function annually using the Modified Mini-Mental State (3MS) Examination. Cognitive decline was defined as a sustained decrease of more than five points in the 3MS score from baseline. Using Cox regression models adjusted for potential confounders, we analyzed associations between secretory solute clearances, serum solute concentrations, and cognitive decline., Results: The median number of follow-up 3MS examinations was six per participant. There were 247 incident cognitive decline events over a median of 9.1 years of follow-up. Lower kidney clearances of five of the eight secretory solutes (cinnamoylglycine, isovalerylglycine, kynurenic acid, pyridoxic acid, and tiglylglycine) were associated with cognitive decline after adjustment for baseline eGFR, proteinuria, and other confounding variables. Effect sizes ranged from a 17% to a 34% higher risk of cognitive decline per 50% lower clearance. In contrast, serum concentrations of the solutes were not associated with cognitive decline., Conclusions: Lower kidney clearances of secreted solutes are associated with incident global cognitive decline in a prospective study of CKD, independent of eGFR. Further work is needed to determine the domains of cognition most affected by decreased secretory clearance and the mechanisms of these associations., (Copyright © 2022 by the American Society of Nephrology.)

Objectives: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) thresholds for acute heart failure and to develop and validate a decision support tool that combines NT-proBNP concentrations with clinical characteristics., Design: Individual patient level data meta-analysis and modelling study., Setting: Fourteen studies from 13 countries, including randomised controlled trials and prospective observational studies., Participants: Individual patient level data for 10 369 patients with suspected acute heart failure were pooled for the meta-analysis to evaluate NT-proBNP thresholds. A decision support tool (Collaboration for the Diagnosis and Evaluation of Heart Failure (CoDE-HF)) that combines NT-proBNP with clinical variables to report the probability of acute heart failure for an individual patient was developed and validated., Main Outcome Measure: Adjudicated diagnosis of acute heart failure., Results: Overall, 43.9% (4549/10 369) of patients had an adjudicated diagnosis of acute heart failure (73.3% (2286/3119) and 29.0% (1802/6208) in those with and without previous heart failure, respectively). The negative predictive value of the guideline recommended rule-out threshold of 300 pg/mL was 94.6% (95% confidence interval 91.9% to 96.4%); despite use of age specific rule-in thresholds, the positive predictive value varied at 61.0% (55.3% to 66.4%), 73.5% (62.3% to 82.3%), and 80.2% (70.9% to 87.1%), in patients aged <50 years, 50-75 years, and >75 years, respectively. Performance varied in most subgroups, particularly patients with obesity, renal impairment, or previous heart failure. CoDE-HF was well calibrated, with excellent discrimination in patients with and without previous heart failure (area under the receiver operator curve 0.846 (0.830 to 0.862) and 0.925 (0.919 to 0.932) and Brier scores of 0.130 and 0.099, respectively). In patients without previous heart failure, the diagnostic performance was consistent across all subgroups, with 40.3% (2502/6208) identified at low probability (negative predictive value of 98.6%, 97.8% to 99.1%) and 28.0% (1737/6208) at high probability (positive predictive value of 75.0%, 65.7% to 82.5%) of having acute heart failure., Conclusions: In an international, collaborative evaluation of the diagnostic performance of NT-proBNP, guideline recommended thresholds to diagnose acute heart failure varied substantially in important patient subgroups. The CoDE-HF decision support tool incorporating NT-proBNP as a continuous measure and other clinical variables provides a more consistent, accurate, and individualised approach., Study Registration: PROSPERO CRD42019159407., Competing Interests: Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at www.icmje.org/disclosure-of-interest/ and declare: support from the British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, and Chief Scientist Office; Y-EC has received honorariums for lectures and presentations from Biomérieux, Roche Diagnostics, and Thermo Fisher; CdF has received consulting fees from Fuji Rebio, Ortho Diagnostics, Quidel, and Roche Diagnostics and a patent entitled “Methods for assessing differential risk for developing heart failure” (patent number: PCT/US2015/029838); SS has received a grant from Roche Diagnostics and a patent entitled “Methods for assessing differential risk for developing heart failure” (patent number: PCT/US2015/029838); ABG has received personal fees and non-financial support from Roche Diagnostics during the conduct of the study and personal fees from Abbott and AstraZeneca, grants, personal fees, and non-financial support from Boehringer-Ingelheim, and personal fees and non-financial support from Novartis and Vifor outside the submitted work. YP has received consulting fees from Roche Diagnostics, Pfizer, and Forbion and honorariums from CVOI and Daiichi Sankyo; HKG has received grants from Roche Diagnostics, Jana Care, Ortho Clinical, Novartis, Pfizer, Alnylam, and Akcea (IONIS), consulting fees from Amgen, Eko, Merck, and Pfizer, and stock in Eko; JCW works as a biostatistician at the biotech company BRAHMS GmbH, part of Thermo Fisher Scientific; MM has received grants from Health Care Research Projects and Biomarker Research and personal fees from Consulting outside the submitted work; ASVS has received speaker fees from Abbott Diagnostics outside the submitted work; AMR has received grants, personal fees, and non-financial support from Roche Diagnostics outside the submitted work; JJVM has received consulting fees from Alnylam, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, BMS, Cardurion, Dal-Cor, GSK, Ionis, KBP Biosciences, Novartis, Pfizer, and Theracos, payments for advisory boards, symposiums, or lectures from Abbott, Alkem Metabolics, Canadian Medical and Surgical Knowledge Translation Research Group, Eris Lifesciences, Hikma, Lupin, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Medscape/Heart.Org, ProAdWise Communications, Radcliffe Cardiology, Servier, and the Corpus, has participated on a data safety monitoring board or advisory board for Cardialysis (MONITOR study) and Merck (VICTORIA trial), and works as company director for Global Clinical Trial Partners Ltd (GCTP) outside the submitted work; CM has received grants and non-financial support from several diagnostic companies during the conduct of the study and grants, personal fees, and non-financial support from several diagnostic companies outside the submitted work; JJ has received grants from Abbott Diagnostics, Innolife, and Novartis and consulting fees from Abbott, Jana Care, Novartis, Roche Diagnostics, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Janssen, and Prevencio; NLM has received grants from Siemens Healthineers, consulting fees from Roche Diagnostics and LumiraDx, and speaker fees from Abbott Diagnostics and Siemens Healthineers outside the submitted work; KKL, DD, and NLM are employed by the University of Edinburgh, which has filed a patent on the CoDE-HF score (patent reference: PCT/GB2021/051470); no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Heart failure (HF) is a leading contributor to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the population with chronic kidney disease (CKD). HF risk prediction tools that use readily available clinical parameters to risk-stratify individuals with CKD are needed., Methods: We included Black and White participants aged 30-79 years with CKD stages 2-4 who were enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study and were without self-reported cardiovascular disease. We assessed model performance of the Pooled Cohort Equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) to predict incident hospitalizations due to HF and refit the PCP-HF in the population with CKD by using CRIC data-derived coefficients and survival from CRIC study participants in the CKD population (PCP-HF CKD ). We investigated the improvement in HF prediction with inclusion of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) into the PCP-HF CKD equations by change in C-statistic, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI). We validated the PCP-HF CKD with and without eGFR and UACR in Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants with CKD., Results: Among 2328 CRIC Study participants, 340 incident HF hospitalizations occurred over a mean follow-up of 9.5 years. The PCP-HF equations did not perform well in most participants with CKD and had inadequate discrimination and insufficient calibration (C-statistic 0.64-0.71, Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino (GND) chi-square statistic P value < 0.05), with modest improvement and good calibration after being refit (PCP-HF CKD : C-statistic 0.61-0.78), GND chi-square statistic P value > 0.05). Addition of UACR, but not eGFR, to the refit PCP-HF CKD improved model performance in all race-sex groups (C-statistic [0.73-0.81], GND chi-square statistic P value > 0.05, delta C-statistic ranging from 0.03-0.11 and NRI and IDI P values < 0.01). External validation of the PCP-HF CKD in MESA demonstrated good discrimination and calibration., Conclusions: Routinely available clinical data that include UACR in patients with CKD can reliably identify individuals at risk of HF hospitalizations., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Individuals with CKD may be at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, there are no ASCVD risk prediction models developed in CKD populations to inform clinical care and prevention., Methods: We developed and validated 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models in patients with CKD that included participants without self-reported cardiovascular disease from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study. ASCVD was defined as the first occurrence of adjudicated fatal and nonfatal stroke or myocardial infarction. Our models used clinically available variables and novel biomarkers. Model performance was evaluated based on discrimination, calibration, and net reclassification improvement., Results: Of 2604 participants (mean age 55.8 years; 52.0% male) included in the analyses, 252 had incident ASCVD within 10 years of baseline. Compared with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equations (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]=0.730), a model with coefficients estimated within the CRIC sample had higher discrimination ( P =0.03), achieving an AUC of 0.736 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.649 to 0.826). The CRIC model developed using clinically available variables had an AUC of 0.760 (95% CI, 0.678 to 0.851). The CRIC biomarker-enriched model had an AUC of 0.771 (95% CI, 0.674 to 0.853), which was significantly higher than the clinical model ( P =0.001). Both the clinical and biomarker-enriched models were well-calibrated and improved reclassification of nonevents compared with the pooled cohort equations (6.6%; 95% CI, 3.7% to 9.6% and 10.0%; 95% CI, 6.8% to 13.3%, respectively)., Conclusions: The 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models developed in patients with CKD, including novel kidney and cardiac biomarkers, performed better than equations developed for the general population using only traditional risk factors., (Copyright © 2022 by the American Society of Nephrology.)

Background and Objectives: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in CKD and associated with poor kidney and cardiovascular outcomes. Prediction models developed using novel methods may be useful to identify patients with CKD at highest risk of incident AF. We compared a previously published prediction model with models developed using machine learning methods in a CKD population., Design, Setting, Participants, & Measurements: We studied 2766 participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study without prior AF with complete cardiac biomarker (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin T) and clinical data. We evaluated the utility of machine learning methods as well as a previously validated clinical prediction model (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology [CHARGE]-AF, which included 11 predictors, using original and re-estimated coefficients) to predict incident AF. Discriminatory ability of each model was assessed using the ten-fold cross-validated C -index; calibration was evaluated graphically and with the Grønnesby and Borgan test., Results: Mean (SD) age of participants was 57 (11) years, 55% were men, 38% were Black, and mean (SD) eGFR was 45 (15) ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ; 259 incident AF events occurred during a median of 8 years of follow-up. The CHARGE-AF prediction equation using original and re-estimated coefficients had C- indices of 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.71) and 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.70), respectively. A likelihood-based boosting model using clinical variables only had a C- index of 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.70); adding N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity troponin T, or both biomarkers improved the C- index by 0.04, 0.01, and 0.04, respectively. In addition to N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin T, the final model included age, non-Hispanic Black race/ethnicity, Hispanic race/ethnicity, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, myocardial infarction, peripheral vascular disease, use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blockers, calcium channel blockers, diuretics, height, and weight., Conclusions: Using machine learning algorithms, a model that included 12 standard clinical variables and cardiac-specific biomarkers N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin T had moderate discrimination for incident AF in a CKD population., (Copyright © 2021 by the American Society of Nephrology.)

Rationale & Objective: Circulating cardiac biomarkers may signal potential mechanistic pathways involved in heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF). Single measures of circulating cardiac biomarkers are strongly associated with incident HF and AF in chronic kidney disease (CKD). We tested the associations of longitudinal changes in the N-terminal fragment of the prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT), galectin-3, growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), and soluble ST-2 (sST-2) with incident HF and AF in patients with CKD., Study Design: Observational, case-cohort study design., Setting & Participants: Adults with CKD enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study., Exposures: Biomarkers were measured at baseline and 2 years later among those without kidney failure. We created 3 categories of absolute change in each biomarker: the lowest quartile, the middle 2 quartiles, and the top quartile., Outcomes: The primary outcomes were incident HF and AF., Analytical Approach: Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to test the associations of the change categories of each cardiac biomarker with each outcome (with the middle 2 quartiles of change as the referent group), adjusting for potential confounders and baseline concentrations of each biomarker., Results: The incident HF analysis included 789 participants (which included 138 incident HF cases), and the incident AF analysis included 774 participants (123 incident AF cases). In multivariable models, the top quartile of NT-proBNP change (>232pg/mL over 2years) was associated with increased risk of incident HF (HR, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.06-3.04]) and AF (HR, 2.32 [95% CI, 1.37-3.93]) compared with the referent group. Participants in the top quartile of sST2 change (>3.37ng/mL over 2years) had significantly greater risk of incident HF (HR, 1.89 [95% CI, 1.13-3.16]), whereas those in the bottom quartile (≤-3.78ng/mL over 2years) had greater risk of incident AF (HR, 2.43 [95% CI, 1.39-4.22]) compared with the 2 middle quartiles. There was no association of changes in hsTnT, galectin-3, or GDF-15 with incident HF or AF., Limitations: Observational study., Conclusions: In CKD, increases in NT-proBNP were significantly associated with greater risk of incident HF and AF, and increases in sST2 were associated with HF. Further studies should investigate whether these markers of subclinical cardiovascular disease can be modified to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease in CKD., (Copyright © 2020 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

High sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hscTnT), soluble ST2 (sST2), N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and galectin-3 are biomarkers of cardiac injury, stress, myocardial stretch, and fibrosis. Elevated levels are associated with poor outcomes. However, their association with cardiac mechanics in older persons is unknown. Associations between these biomarkers and cardiac mechanics derived from speckle tracking echocardiography, including left ventricular longitudinal strain (LVLS), early diastolic strain, and left atrial reservoir strain (LARS) were evaluated using standardized beta coefficients () in a cross sectional analysis with cardiac biomarkers in older patients without cardiovascular disease, low ejection fraction, or wall motion abnormalities. Biomarker associations with strain were attenuated by demographics and risk factors. In adjusted models, LVLS was associated with continuous measures of hscTnT (β ∧ -0.06, p = 0.020), sST2 (β ∧ -0.05, p = 0.024) and NT-proBNP (β ∧ -0.06, p = 0.007). "High" levels (i.e., greater than prognostic cutpoint) of hscTnT (>13 ng/ml), sST2 (>35 ng/ml), and NT-proBNP (>190 pg/ml) were also associated with worse LVLS. In risk factor adjusted models, LARS was associated with hscTnT (β ∧ -0.08, p = 0.003) and NT-proBNP (β ∧ -0.18, p <0.0001). High hscTnT (>13 ng/ml) and high NT-proBNP (>190 pg/ml) were also both associated with worse LARS. Gal-3 was not associated with any strain measure. In conclusion, in persons ≥ 65 years of age, without cardiovascular disease, low ejection fraction, or wall motion abnormalities, hscTnT, sST2, and NT-proBNP are associated with worse LVLS. HscTnT and NT-proBNP are associated with worse LARS. In conclusion, these subclinical increases in blood biomarkers, and their associations with subtle diastolic and systolic dysfunction, may represent pre-clinical heart failure., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relations that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this study., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose of Review: To characterize and interpret recent studies of biomarkers of cardiorenal syndrome., Recent Findings: Recent studies have questioned the mechanisms and significance of moderate worsening renal function (WRF) in patients with acute heart failure. In the setting of successful decongestion, WRF may not predict cardiorenal morbidity. Cardiac-specific biomarkers including cardiac troponins and natriuretic peptides are highly prognostic in acute and chronic HF patients with kidney impairment, and serial changes in these markers during hospitalization are also predictive of longer-term adverse outcomes. These markers also predict new HF in patients with established chronic kidney disease (CKD). The role of kidney tubular injury markers in acute HF remains controversial, with inconsistent associations with short- and long-term cardiorenal outcomes. Many cases of WRF in acute HF are not characterized by a clear pattern of renal tubular injury. Cardiac-specific and renal-specific biomarkers may provide mechanistic and prognostic information in cardiorenal syndromes.

Background and Objectives: In autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), the GFR often remains normal despite significant nephron loss. Proximal tubular secretory clearance may be reduced in ADPKD before detectable changes in GFR., Design, Setting, Participants, & Measurements: We used targeted mass spectrometry to quantify secretory solutes from blood and urine samples from 31 patients with ADPKD and preserved GFR (mean eGFR =111±11 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ) and 25 healthy control individuals as well as from 95 patients with ADPKD and reduced GFR (mean eGFR =53±21 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ) and 92 individuals with non-ADPKD CKD. We used linear regression to compare the fractional excretion of each solute between ADPKD and control groups. Among 112 patients with ADPKD, we used linear regression to determine associations of solute fractional excretion with height-adjusted total kidney volume., Results: After adjusting for demographics, clinical characteristics, and kidney function measures, the fractional excretions of three secretory solutes were lower in patients with ADPKD and preserved GFR compared with healthy individuals: 52% lower cinnamoylglycine excretion (95% confidence interval, 24% to 70%), 53% lower tiglylglycine excretion (95% confidence interval, 23% to 71%), and 91% lower xanthosine excretion (95% confidence interval, 83% to 95%). In addition to lower excretions of tiglylglycine and xanthosine, patients with ADPKD and reduced GFR also demonstrated 37% lower dimethyluric acid excretion (95% confidence interval, 21% to 50%), 58% lower hippurate excretion (95% confidence interval, 48% to 66%), 48% lower isovalerylglycine excretion (95% confidence interval, 37% to 56%), and 31% lower pyridoxic acid excretion (95% confidence interval, 16% to 42%) compared with patients with non-ADPKD CKD and comparable eGFR. Among patients with ADPKD, solute fractional excretions were not associated with differences in kidney volume., Conclusions: Patients with ADPKD and preserved and reduced GFR demonstrate lower tubular secretory solute excretion compared with healthy controls and patients with non-ADPKD CKD. Our results suggest that tubular secretion is impaired in ADPKD independent of GFR., (Copyright © 2020 by the American Society of Nephrology.)

Background Cardiac biomarkers may signal mechanistic pathways involved in heart failure (HF), a leading complication in chronic kidney disease. We tested the associations of NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT), galectin-3, growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), and soluble ST2 (sST2) with incident HF in chronic kidney disease. Methods and Results We examined adults with chronic kidney disease enrolled in a prospective, multicenter study. All biomarkers were measured at baseline. The primary outcome was incident HF. Secondary outcomes included HF with preserved ejection fraction (EF≥50%) and reduced ejection fraction (EF<50%). Cox models were used to test the association of each cardiac biomarker with HF, adjusting for demographics, kidney function, cardiovascular risk factors, and medication use. Among 3314 participants, all biomarkers, with the exception of galectin-3, were significantly associated with increased risk of incident HF (hazard ratio per SD higher concentration of log-transformed biomarker): NT-proBNP (hazard ratio, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.79-2.39); hsTnT (hazard ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.21-1.56); GDF-15 (hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.26-1.66) and sST2 (hazard ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.05-1.35). Higher NT-proBNP, hsTnT, and GDF-15 were also associated with a greater risk of HF with reduced EF; while higher NT-proBNP GDF-15 and sST2 were associated with HF with preserved EF. Galectin-3 was not associated with either HF with reduced EF or HF with preserved EF. Conclusions In chronic kidney disease, elevations of NT-proBNP, hsTnT, GDF-15, sST2 were associated with incident HF. There was a borderline association of galectin-3 with incident HF. NT-proBNP and hsTnT were more strongly associated with HF with reduced EF, while the associations of the newer biomarkers GDF-15 and sST2 were stronger for HF with preserved EF.

Background: Increases in cardiac and stress biomarkers may be associated with loss of kidney function through shared mechanisms involving cardiac and kidney injury. We evaluated the associations of cardiac and stress biomarkers [N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT), growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), soluble ST-2 (sST-2)] with progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD)., Methods: We included 3664 participants with CKD from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study. All biomarkers were measured at entry. The primary outcome was CKD progression, defined as progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Cox models tested the association of each biomarker with CKD progression, adjusting for demographics, site, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, eGFR, urine proteinuria, blood pressure, body mass index, cholesterol, medication use, and mineral metabolism., Results: There were 1221 participants who had CKD progression over a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 5.8 (2.4-8.6) years. GDF-15, but not sST2, was significantly associated with an increased risk of CKD progression [hazard ratios (HRs) are per SD increase in log-transformed biomarker]: GDF-15 (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.35-1.67) and sST2 (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.99-1.14). NT-proBNP and hsTnT were also associated with increased risk of CKD progression, but weaker than GDF-15: NT-proBNP (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.13-1.36) and hsTnT (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.22)., Conclusions: Increases in GDF-15, NT-proBNP, and hsTnT are associated with greater risk for CKD progression. These biomarkers may inform mechanisms underlying kidney injury., (© 2019 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.)

Background: Advanced chronic kidney disease is associated with elevated risk for cognitive impairment. However, it is not known whether and how cognitive impairment is associated with planning and preparation for end-stage renal disease., Study Design: Retrospective observational study., Setting & Participants: 630 adults participating in the CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) Study who had cognitive assessments in late-stage CKD, defined as estimated glome-rular filtration rate ≤ 20mL/min/1.73m 2 , and subsequently initiated maintenance dialysis therapy., Predictor: Predialysis cognitive impairment, defined as a score on the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination lower than previously derived age-based threshold scores. Covariates included age, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, comorbid conditions, and health literacy., Outcomes: Peritoneal dialysis (PD) as first dialysis modality, preemptive permanent access placement, venous catheter avoidance at dialysis therapy initiation, and preemptive wait-listing for a kidney transplant., Measurements: Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression., Results: Predialysis cognitive impairment was present in 117 (19%) participants. PD was the first dialysis modality among 16% of participants (n=100), 75% had preemptive access placed (n=473), 45% avoided using a venous catheter at dialysis therapy initiation (n=279), and 20% were preemptively wait-listed (n=126). Predialysis cognitive impairment was independently associated with 78% lower odds of PD as the first dialysis modality (adjusted OR [aOR], 0.22; 95% CI, 0.06-0.74; P=0.02) and 42% lower odds of venous catheter avoidance at dialysis therapy initiation (aOR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.34-0.98; P=0.04). Predialysis cognitive impairment was not independently associated with preemptive permanent access placement or wait-listing., Limitations: Potential unmeasured confounders; single measure of cognitive function., Conclusions: Predialysis cognitive impairment is associated with a lower likelihood of PD as a first dialysis modality and of venous catheter avoidance at dialysis therapy initiation. Future studies may consider addressing cognitive function when testing strategies to improve patient transitions to dialysis therapy., (Copyright © 2018 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant risk factor for cognitive impairment. Previous studies have examined differences in cognitive impairment between persons with and without CKD using multiple cognitive outcomes, but few have done this for an extensive battery of cognitive tests. We relate early-stage CKD to two indices of impairment for 22 measures of cognitive ability., Methods: The study was community-based and cross-sectional with 898 individuals free from dementia and end-stage renal disease. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using the chronic kidney disease epidemiology collaboration equation and classified as <60 or ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2, based on consensus definitions of Stage 3 or greater CKD. The eGFR classifications were related to modest [≥1 standard deviation (SD) below the mean] and severe (≥1.5 SD below the mean) impairment on each measure using logistic regression analyses adjusting for potential risk factors., Results: A total of 146 individuals (16.3%) had eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (mean 51.6 ± 10.1 mL/min/1.73 m2). These participants had significantly greater risk for modestly impaired abilities in the scanning and tracking and visual-spatial organization/memory (VSOM) domains after accounting for comorbidity-related risk factors [odds ratios (ORs) between 1.68 and 2.16], as well as greater risk for severely impaired functioning in the language domain (OR = 2.65)., Conclusions: Participants with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 were at higher risk for cognitive impairment than those with eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 on the majority of cognitive abilities, specifically those within the VSOM, Language, and scanning and tracking domains. Targeted screening for cognitive deficits in kidney disease patients early in their disease course may be warranted.