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Increased wildfire events constitute a significant threat to life and property in the United States (US). Wildfire's impact on severe storms and weather hazards is another pathway that threatens society, and our understanding of which is very limited. Here, we explore the effects of wildfires in the western US (mainly California and Oregon) on severe convective storms in the central US using unique modeling and machine learning (ML) analyses. Based on a single-case modeling study, we find that the western US wildfires notably increase the occurrences of heavy precipitation rates by 38% and significant severe hail (≥2 in.) by 34% in the central United States. Both heat and aerosols from wildfires play an important role. By increasing westerly and southwesterly winds, wildfires in the western US produce (1) stronger moisture and aerosol transport to the central US and (2) larger wind shear and storm-relative helicity in the central US. The meteorological environment that is more conducive to severe convective storms, together with the increased aerosols, contribute to the enhancements of heavy precipitation rates and large hail. In the ML analysis of the impact of western fires (all fires including prescribed and agriculture fires) on hail in the central US, we found that fire-related variables such as temperatures and relative humidity in the fire regions, as well as black and organic carbon, are among the top variables. The ML analysis confirms the effect of western fires on severe convective storms in the central US and supports the mechanism revealed from the modeling study. As wildfires are projected to be more frequent and severe in a warmer climate, the influence of wildfires on severe weather in downwind regions may become increasingly important.&nbsp, The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)

The OH oxidation of α-pinene under both low- and high-NOx environments was studied in the Caltech atmospheric chambers. Ozone was kept low to ensure OH was the oxidant. The initial α-pinene concentration was 20–50 ppb to ensure that the dominant peroxy radical pathway under low-NOx conditions is reaction with HO2, produced from reaction of OH with H2O2, and under high-NOx conditions, reactions with NO. Here we present the gas-phase results observed. Under low-NOx conditions the main first generation oxidation products are a number of α-pinene hydroxy hydroperoxides and pinonaldehyde, accounting for over 40% of the yield. In all, 65–75% of the carbon can be accounted for in the gas phase; this excludes first-generation products that enter the particle phase. We suggest that pinonaldehyde forms from RO2 + HO2 through an alkoxy radical channel that regenerates OH, a mechanism typically associated with acyl peroxy radicals, not alkyl peroxy radicals. The OH oxidation and photolysis of α-pinene hydroxy hydroperoxides leads to further production of pinonaldehyde, resulting in total pinonaldehyde yield from low-NOx OH oxidation of ~33%. The low-NOx OH oxidation of pinonaldehyde produces a number of carboxylic acids and peroxyacids known to be important secondary organic aerosol components. Under high-NOx conditions, pinonaldehyde was also found to be the major first-generation OH oxidation product. The high-NOx OH oxidation of pinonaldehyde did not produce carboxylic acids and peroxyacids. A number of organonitrates and peroxyacyl nitrates are observed and identified from α-pinene and pinonaldehyde.

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) can reside in the atmosphere for a week or more. While its initial formation from the gas-phase oxidation of volatile organic compounds tends to take place in the first few hours after emission, SOA can continue to evolve chemically over its atmospheric lifetime. Simulating this chemical aging over an extended time in the laboratory has proven to be challenging. We present here a procedure for studying SOA aging in laboratory chambers that is applied to achieve 36 h of oxidation. The formation and evolution of SOA from the photooxidation of m-xylene under low-NOx conditions and in the presence of either neutral or acidic seed particles is studied. In SOA aging, increasing molecular functionalization leads to less volatile products and an increase in SOA mass, whereas gas- or particle-phase fragmentation chemistry results in more volatile products and a loss of SOA. The challenge is to discern from measured chamber variables the extent to which these processes are important for a given SOA system. In the experiments conducted, m-xylene SOA mass, calculated under the assumption of size-invariant particle composition, increased over the initial 12–13 h of photooxidation and decreased beyond that time, suggesting the existence of fragmentation chemistry. The oxidation of the SOA, as manifested in the O:C elemental ratio and fraction of organic ion detected at m/z 44 measured by the Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer, increased continuously starting after 5 h of irradiation until the 36 h termination. This behavior is consistent with an initial period in which, as the mass of SOA increases, products of higher volatility partition to the aerosol phase, followed by an aging period in which gas- and particle-phase reaction products become increasingly more oxidized. When irradiation is stopped 12.4 h into one experiment, and OH generation ceases, minimal loss of SOA is observed, indicating that the loss of SOA is either light- or OH-induced. Chemical ionization mass spectrometry measurements of low-volatility m-xylene oxidation products exhibit behavior indicative of continuous photooxidation chemistry. A condensed chemical mechanism of m-xylene oxidation under low-NOx conditions is capable of reproducing the general behavior of gas-phase evolution observed here. Moreover, order of magnitude analysis of the mechanism suggests that gas-phase OH reaction of low volatility SOA precursors is the dominant pathway of aging in the m-xylene system although OH reaction with particle surfaces cannot be ruled out. Finally, the effect of size-dependent particle composition and size-dependent particle wall loss rates on different particle wall loss correction methods is discussed.

International audience; Air quality models that generate the concentrations of semi-volatile and other condensable organic compounds using an explicit reaction mechanism require estimates of the physical and thermodynamic properties of the compounds that affect gas/aerosol partitioning: vapour pressure (as a subcooled liquid), and activity coefficients in the aerosol phase. The model of Griffin, Kleeman and co-workers (e.g., Griffin et al., 2003; Kleeman et al., 1999) assumes that aerosol particles consist of an aqueous phase, containing inorganic electrolytes and soluble organic compounds, and a hydrophobic phase containing mainly primary hydrocarbon material. Thirty eight semi-volatile reaction products are grouped into ten surrogate species which partition between the gas phase and both phases in the aerosol. Activity coefficients of the organic compounds are calculated using UNIFAC. In a companion paper (Clegg et al., 2008) we examine the likely uncertainties in the vapour pressures of the semi-volatile compounds and their effects on partitioning over a range of atmospheric relative humidities. In this work a simulation for the South Coast Air Basin surrounding Los Angeles, using lower vapour pressures of the semi-volatile surrogate compounds consistent with estimated uncertainties in the boiling points on which they are based, yields a doubling of the predicted 24-h average secondary organic aerosol concentrations. The dependency of organic compound partitioning on the treatment of inorganic electrolytes in the air quality model, and the performance of this component of the model, are determined by analysing the results of a trajectory calculation using an extended version of the Aerosol Inorganics Model of Wexler and Clegg (2002). Simplifications are identified where substantial efficiency gains can be made, principally: the omission of dissociation of the organic acid surrogates; restriction of aerosol organic compounds to one of the two phases (aqueous or hydrophobic) where equilibrium calculations suggest partitioning strongly in either direction; a single calculation of activity coefficients of the organic compounds for simulations where they are determined by the presence of one component at high concentration in either phase (i.e., water in the aqueous phase, or a hydrocarbon surrogate compound P8 in the hydrophobic phase) and are therefore almost invariant. The implications of the results for the development of aerosol models are discussed.

International audience; A variety of thermodynamic models have been developed to predict inorganic gas-aerosol equilibrium. To achieve computational efficiency a number of the models rely on a priori specification of the phases present in certain relative humidity regimes. Presented here is a new computational model, named UHAERO, that is both efficient and rigorously computes phase behavior without any a priori specification. The computational implementation is based on minimization of the Gibbs free energy using a primal-dual method, coupled to a Newton iteration. The mathematical details of the solution are given elsewhere. The model computes deliquescence behavior without any a priori specification of the relative humidities of deliquescence. Also included in the model is a formulation based on classical theory of nucleation kinetics that predicts crystallization behavior. Detailed phase diagrams of the sulfate/nitrate/ammonium/water system are presented as a function of relative humidity at 298.15 K over the complete space of composition.