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We report on the solar and interplanetary (IP) causes of the third largest geomagnetic storm (2018 August 26) in solar cycle 24. The underlying coronal mass ejection (CME) originating from a quiescent filament region becomes a 440 km/s magnetic cloud (MC) at 1 au after ~5 days. The prolonged CME acceleration (for about 24 hrs) coincides with the time profiles of the post-eruption arcade intensity and reconnected flux. Chen et al. (2019) obtain lower speed since they assumed that the CME does not accelerate after about 12 hrs. The presence of multiple coronal holes near the filament channel and the high-speed wind from them seem to have the combined effect of producing complex rotation in the corona and IP medium resulting in a high-inclination MC. The Dst time profile in the main phase steepens significantly (rapid increase in storm intensity) coincident with the density increase (prominence material) in the second half of the MC. Simulations using the Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model shows that a higher ring current energy results from larger dynamic pressure in MCs. Furthermore, the Dst index is highly correlated with the main-phase time integral of the ring current injection that includes density, consistent with the simulations. A complex temporal structure develops in the storm main phase if the underlying MC has a complex density structure during intervals of southward interplanetary magnetic field. We conclude that the high intensity of the storm results from the prolonged CME acceleration, complex rotation, and the high density in the 1-au MC., Comment: 35 pages, 12 figures, 2 tables, to appear in Journal of Geophysical Research

An intense type III radio storm has been disrupted by a fast halo coronal mass ejection (CME) on 2000 April 4. The CME is also associated with a large solar energetic particle (SEP) event. The storm recovers after about10 hrs. We identified another CME that occurs on 2003 November 11 with similar CME properties but there is no type III storm in progress. The 2003 November 11 CME is also not associated with an SEP event above the background (less than 2 pfu), whereas the one with type III storm has an intense SEP event (about 56 pfu). One of the factors affecting the intensity of SEP events is the presence of seed particles that are accelerated by CME-driven shocks. We suggest that the type III storm source, which accelerates electrons to produce the storm, also accelerates ions that serve as seed particles to the CME shock., Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, tp appear in Proc. 3rd URSI AT-AP-RASC, Gran Canaria, 29 May to 3 June 2022

After providing an overview of solar activity as measured by the sunspot number (SSN) and space weather events during solar cycles (SCs) 21-24, we focus on the weak solar activity in SC 24. The weak solar activity reduces the number of energetic eruptions from the Sun and hence the number of space weather events. The speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), interplanetary (IP) shocks, and the background solar wind all declined in SC 24. One of the main heliospheric consequences of weak solar activity is the reduced total (magnetic + gas) pressure, magnetic field strength, and Alfv\'en speed. There are three groups of phenomena that decline to different degrees in SC 24 relative to the corresponding ones in SC 23: (i) those that decline more than SSN does, (ii) those that decline like SSN, and (iii) those that decline less than SSN does. The decrease in the number of severe space weather events such as high-energy solar energetic particle (SEP) events and intense geomagnetic storms is deeper than the decline in SSN. CMEs expand anomalously and hence their magnetic content is diluted resulting in weaker geomagnetic storms. The reduction in the number of intense geomagnetic storms caused by corotating interaction regions is also drastic. The diminished heliospheric magnetic field in SC 24 reduces the efficiency of particle acceleration, resulting in fewer high-energy SEP events. The numbers of IP type II radio bursts, IP socks, and high-intensity energetic storm particle events closely follow the number of fast and wide CMEs (and approximately SSN). The number of halo CMEs in SC 24 declines less than SSN does, mainly due to the weak heliospheric state. Phenomena such as IP CMEs and magnetic clouds related to frontside halos also do not decline significantly. The mild space weather is likely to continue in SC 25, whose strength has been predicted to be not too different from that of SC 24., Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables, to appear in Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Proc. 2nd International Symposium on Space Science 2021, LAPAN, Indonesia

Solar radio bursts are often early indicators of space weather events such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In this study, we determined the properties of a sample of 40 high-starting-frequency (≥ 150 MHz) type II radio bursts and the characteristics of the associated CMEs such as width, location and speed during 2010–2016. The high starting frequency implies shock formation closer to the solar surface, which has important ramifications for the analysis of particle acceleration near the Sun. We found the CME heliocentric distances at the onset time of metric type II bursts range from 1.16 to 1.90 solar radii (Rs). The study was also extended to 128 metric type II bursts to include lower-starting-frequency events for further analysis. The projected CME heights range from 1.15 to 2.85 Rs. The lower starting frequency correspond to shocks forming at larger heights. A weak correlation was found between the type-II starting frequency and CME heights, which is consistent with the density decline in the inner corona. The analysis confirmed a good correlation between the drift rate and the starting frequency of type II bursts (correlation coefficient ∼ 0.8). Taking into account the radial variation of CMEs speeds from the inner corona to the interplanetary medium, we observed the deviations from the universal drift-rate spectrum of type II bursts and confirmed the previous results relating type II bursts to CMEs.

In gradual Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events, shock waves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) play a major role in accelerating particles, and the energetic particle flux enhances substantially when the shock front passes by the observer. Such enhancements are historically referred to as Energetic Storm Particle (ESP) events, but it remains unclear why ESP time profiles vary significantly from event to event. In some cases, energetic protons are not even clearly associated with shocks. Here we report an unusual, short-duration proton event detected on 5 June 2011 in the compressed sheath region bounded by an interplanetary shock and the leading-edge of the interplanetary CME (or ICME) that was driving the shock. While 30 MeV) protons were detected about four hours after the shock arrival, apparently correlated with a turbulent magnetic cavity embedded in the ICME sheath region.

We report on the first detection of nonthermal radio emission associated with a polar coronal mass ejection. We call the radio emission as diffuse interplanetary radio emission (DIRE), which occurs in the decameter-hectometric wavelengths. The radio emission originates from the shock flanks that interact with nearby streamers., Comment: 4 pages, 6 figures, URSI 2020 Proceedings

We report on the Balloonborne Investigation of Temperature and Speed of Electrons in the corona (BITSE) mission launched recently to observe the solar corona from about 3 Rs to 15 Rs at four wavelengths (393.5, 405.0, 398.7, and 423.4 nm). The BITSE instrument is an externally occulted single stage coronagraph developed at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in collaboration with the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI). BITSE used a polarization camera that provided polarization and total brightness images of size 1024 x 1024 pixels. The Wallops Arc Second Pointing (WASP) system developed at NASA's Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) was used for Sun-pointing. The coronagraph and WASP were mounted on a gondola provided by WFF and launched from the Fort Sumner, New Mexico station of Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility (CSBF) on September 18, 2019. BITSE obtained 17,060 coronal images at a float altitude of about 128,000 feet (39 km) over a period of about 4 hrs. BITSE flight software was based on NASA's core Flight System, which was designed to help develop flight quality software. We used EVTM (Ethernet Via Telemetry) to download science data during operations; all images were stored onboard using flash storage. At the end of the mission, all data were recovered and analyzed. Preliminary analysis shows that BITSE imaged the solar minimum corona with the equatorial streamers on the east and west limbs. The narrow streamers observed by BITSE are in good agreement with the geometric properties obtained by SOHO coronagraphs in the overlapping physical domain. In spite of the small signal-to-noise ratio (about 14) we were able to obtain the temperature and flow speed of the western steamer region in the range 4 to 7 Rs as: For the equatorial streamer on the west limb, we obtained a temperature of 1.0 +/- 0.3 MK and a flow speed of about 260 km/s with a large uncertainty interval., 40 pages, 25 figures, 4 tables, 3 electronic supplements, to appear in Solar Physics

We compare the properties of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that originate close to the limb (within a central meridian distance range of 60 to 90 deg) during solar cycles 23 and 24 to quantify the effect of the heliospheric state on CME properties. There are 44 and 38 limb halos in the cycles 23 and 24, respectively. Normalized to the cycle-averaged total sunspot number, there are 42 percent more limb halos in cycle 24. Although the limb halos as a population is very fast (average speed 1464 km s-1), cycle-24 halos are slower by 26 percent than the cycle-23 halos. We introduce a new parameter, the heliocentric distance of the CME leading edge at the time a CME becomes a full halo; this height is significantly shorter in cycle 24 (by 20 percent) and has a lower cutoff at 6 Rs. These results show that cycle-24 CMEs become halos sooner and at a lower speed than the cycle-23 ones. On the other hand, the flare sizes are very similar in the two cycles, ruling out the possibility of eruption characteristics contributing to the differing CME properties. In summary, this study reveals the effect of the reduced total pressure in the heliosphere that allows cycle-24 CMEs expand more and become halos sooner than in cycle 23. Our findings have important implications for the space-weather consequences of CMEs in cycle 25 (predicted to be similar to cycle 24) and for understanding the disparity in halo counts reported by automatic and manual catalogs., 13 pages, 4 figures, one table, accepted for publication in Astrophys. J Lett. on June 10, 2020

We report on a statistical study of prominence eruptions (PEs) using a catalog of these events routinely imaged by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) in the 304 \r{A} pass band. Using an algorithm developed as part of an LWS project, we have detected PEs in 304 \r{A} synoptic images with 2-min cadence since May 2010. A catalog of these PEs is made available online (https://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/autope/). The 304 \r{A} images are polar-transformed and divided by a background map (pixels with minimum intensity during one day) to get the ratio maps above the limb. The prominence regions are defined as pixels with a ratio $\ge$2. Two prominence regions with more than 50% of pixels overlapping are considered the same prominence. If the height of a prominence increases monotonically in 5 successive images, it is considered eruptive. All the PEs seen above the limb are detected by the routine, but only PEs with width $\ge$15{\deg} are included in the catalog to eliminate polar jets and other small-scale mass motions. The identifications are also cross-checked with the PEs identified in Nobeyama Radioheliograph images (http://solar.nro.nao.ac.jp/norh/html/prominence/). The catalog gives the date, time, central position angle, latitude, and width of the eruptive prominence. The catalog also provides links to JavaScript movies that combine SDO/AIA images with GOES soft X-ray data to identify the associated flares, and with SOHO/LASCO C2 images to identify the associated coronal mass ejections. We examined the statistical properties of the PEs and found that the high-latitude PE speed decreased with the decreasing of the average polar magnetic field strength of the previous cycle., Comment: 22 pages, 9 figures

Solar type II radio bursts are the signature of particle acceleration by shock waves in the solar corona and interplanetary medium. The shocks originate in solar eruptions involving coronal mass ejections (CMEs) moving at super-Alfvenic speeds. Type II bursts occur at frequencies ranging from hundreds of MHz to tens of kHz, which correspond to plasma frequencies prevailing in the inner heliosphere from the base of the solar corona to the vicinity of Earth. Type II radio bursts occurring at frequencies below the ionospheric cutoff are of particular importance, because they are due to very energetic CMEs that can disturb a large volume of the heliosphere. The underlying shocks accelerate not only electrons that produce the type II bursts, but also protons and heavy ions that have serious implications for space weather. The type II radio burst catalog (this https URL) presented here provides detailed information on the bursts observed by the Radio and Plasma Wave Experiment (WAVES) on board the Wind Spacecraft. The catalog is enhanced by compiling the associated flares, CMEs, solar energetic particle (SEP) events including their basic properties. We also present the statistical properties of the radio bursts and the associated phenomena, including solar-cycle variation of the occurrence rate of the type II bursts.

Metric type II solar radio bursts and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are both associated with shock fronts driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the solar corona. Recent studies of ground level enhancements (GLEs), regular large solar energetic particle (SEP) events and filament eruption (FE) associated large SEP events have shown that SEP events are organized by spectral index of proton fluence spectra and by the average starting frequencies of the associated type II radio bursts. Both these results indicate a hierarchical relationship between CME kinematics and SEP event properties. In this study, we expand the investigations to fluence spectra and the longitudinal extent of metric type II associated SEP events including low-intensity SEP events. We utilize SEP measurements of particle instruments on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft together with radio bursts observations by ground-based radio observatories during solar cycle 24. Our results show that low-intensity SEP events follow the hierarchy of spectral index or the hierarchy of the starting frequency of type II radio bursts. We also find indications of a trend between the onset frequency of metric type II bursts and the estimated longitudinal extent of the SEP events although the scatter of data points is quite large. These two results strongly support the idea of SEP acceleration by shocks. Stronger shocks develop closer to the Sun.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are energetic eruptions of organized magnetic structures from the Sun. Therefore, the reconnection of the magnetic field during ejection can excite periodic speed oscillations of CMEs. A previous study showed that speed oscillations are frequently associated with CME propagation. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory mission’s white-light coronagraphs have observed about 30,000 CMEs from 1996 January to the end of 2019 December. This period of time covers two solar cycles (23 and 24). In the present study, the basic attributes of speed oscillations during this period of time were analyzed. We showed that the oscillation parameters (period and amplitude) significantly depend not only on the phase of a given solar cycle but also on the intensity of individual cycles as well. This reveals that the basic attributes of speed oscillation are closely related to the physical conditions prevailing inside the CMEs as well as in the interplanetary medium in which they propagate. Using this approximation, we estimated that, on average, the CME internal magnetic field varies from 18 up to 25 mG between minimum and maximum solar activity. The obtained results show that a detailed analysis of speed oscillations can be a very efficient tool for studying not only the physical properties of the ejections themselves but also the condition of the interplanetary medium in which they expand. This creates completely new perspectives for studying the physical parameters of CMEs shortly after their eruption in the Sun’s environment (space seismology).

Aims.Our aim is to investigate the possible physical association between consecutive coronal mass ejections (CMEs).Methods.Through a statistical study of the main characteristics of 27 761 CMEs observed by SOHO/LASCO during the past 20 years.Results.We found the waiting time (WT) or time elapsed between two consecutive CMEs is < 5 h for 59% and < 25 h for 97% of the events, and the CME WTs follow a Pareto Type IV statistical distribution. The difference of the position-angle of a considerable population of consecutive CME pairs is less than 30°, indicating the possibility that their source locations are in the same region. The difference between the speed of trailing and leading consecutive CMEs follows a generalized Studentt-distribution. The fact that the WT and the speed difference have heavy-tailed distributions along with a detrended fluctuation analysis shows that the CME process has a long-range dependence. As a consequence of the long-range dependence, we found a small but significative difference between the speed of consecutive CMEs, with the speed of the trailing CME being higher than the speed of the leading CME. The difference is largest for WTs < 2 h and tends to be zero for WTs > 10 h, and it is more evident during the ascending and descending phases of the solar cycle. We suggest that this difference may be caused by a drag force acting over CMEs closely related in space and time.Conclusions.Our results show that the initiation and early propagation of a significant population of CMEs cannot be considered as a “pure” stochastic process; instead they have temporal, spatial, and velocity relationship.

We report on the source of greater than 300 MeV protons during the SOL2014-09-01 sustained gamma-ray emission (SGRE) event based on multi-wavelength data from a wide array of space- and ground-based instruments. Based on the eruption geometry we provide concrete explanation for the spatially and temporally extended {\gamma}-ray emission from the eruption. We show that the associated flux rope is of low inclination (roughly oriented in the east-west direction), which enables the associated shock to extend to the frontside. We compare the centroid of the SGRE source with the location of the flux rope leg to infer that the high-energy protons must be precipitating between the flux rope leg and the shock front. The durations of the SOL2014-09-01 SGRE event and the type II radio burst agree with the linear relationship between these parameters obtained for other SGRE events with duration exceeding 3 hrs. The fluence spectrum of the SEP event is very hard, indicating the presence of high-energy (GeV) particles in this event. This is further confirmed by the presence of an energetic coronal mass ejection (CME) with a speed more than 2000 km/s, similar to those in ground level enhancement (GLE) events. The type II radio burst had emission components from metric to kilometric wavelengths as in events associated with GLE events. All these factors indicate that the high-energy particles from the shock were in sufficient numbers needed for the production of {\gamma}-rays via neutral pion decay., Comment: 39 pages, 14 figures, to appear in Solar Physics

In this paper we present a statistical study of the kinematics of 28894 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) recorded by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory spacecraft from 1996 until mid-2017. The initial acceleration phase is characterized by a rapid increase in CME velocity just after eruption in the inner corona. This phase is followed by a non-significant residual acceleration (deceleration) characterized by an almost constant speed of CMEs. We demonstrate that the initial acceleration is in the range 0.24-2616 ms-2 with median (average) value of 57 ms-2 (34 ms-2 ) and it takes place up to a distance of about 28 solar radius with median (average) value of 7.8 solar radius (6 solar radius). Additionally, the initial acceleration is significant in the case of fast CMEs (V > 900 kms-1 ), where the median (average) values are about 295 ms-2 (251 ms-2 ), respectively, and much weaker in the case of slow CMEs (V < 250 kms-1 ), where the median (average) values are about 18 ms-2 (17 ms-2 ), respectively. We note that the significant driving force (Lorentz force) can operate up to a distance of 6 solar radius from the Sun during the first 2 hours of propagation. We found a significant anti-correlation between the initial acceleration magnitude and the acceleration duration, whereas the residual acceleration covers a range from -1224 to 0 ms-2 with a median (average) value of -34 ms-2 (-17 ms-2 ). One intriguing finding is that the residual acceleration is much smaller during the 24th cycle in comparison to the 23rd cycle of solar activity. Our study has also revealed that the considered parameters, initial acceleration (ACC INI ), residual acceleration (ACC RES ), maximum velocity (V MAX ), and time at maximum velocity (Time MAX ) mostly follow solar cycles and the intensities of the individual cycle., 12 pages, 14 figures

To improve the forecasting capability of impactful solar energetic particle (SEP) events, the relation between coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and SEP events needs to be better understood. Here we present a statistical study of SEP occurrences and timescales with respect to the CME source locations and speeds, considering all 257 fast ($v_{CME}$ $\ge$ 900 km/s) and wide (angular width $\ge$ 60$^{\circ}$) CMEs that occurred between December 2006 and October 2017. We associate them with SEP events at energies above 10 MeV. Examination of the source region of each CME reveals that CMEs more often accompany a SEP event if they originate from the longitude of E20-W100 relative to the observer. However, a SEP event could still be absent if the CME is $, Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

We investigated the relationship between the spectral structures of type II solar radio bursts in the hectometric and kilometric wavelength ranges and solar energetic particles (SEPs). To examine the statistical relationship between type II bursts and SEPs, we selected 26 coronal mass ejection (CME) events with similar characteristics (e.g., initial speed, angular width, and location) observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO), regardless of the characteristics of the corresponding type II bursts and the SEP flux. Then, we compared associated type II bursts observed by the Radio and Plasma Wave Experiment (WAVES) onboard the Wind spacecraft and the SEP flux observed by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) orbiting around the Earth. We found that the bandwidth of the hectometric type II bursts and the peak flux of the SEPs has a positive correlation (with a correlation coefficient of 0.64). This result supports the idea that the nonthermal electrons of type II bursts and the nonthermal ions of SEPs are generated by the same shock and suggests that more SEPs may be generated for a wider or stronger CME shock with a longer duration. Our result also suggests that considering the spectral structures of type II bursts can improve the forecasting accuracy for the peak flux of gradual SEPs., 24 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

It has recently been shown that the spatially and temporally extended gamma-ray emission in solar eruptions are caused by greater than 300 MeV protons precipitating on the Sun from shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The gamma-rays result from the decay of neutral pions produced in the proton-proton interaction when the greater than 300 MeV protons collide with those in the chromosphere. The evidence comes from the close correlation between the durations of the sustained gamma-ray emission (SGRE) and the associated interplanetary (IP) type II radio bursts. In this paper, we provide further evidence that support the idea that protons accelerated in IP shocks driven by CMEs propagate toward the Sun, precipitate in the chromosphere to produce the observed SGRE. We present the statistical properties of the SGRE events and the associated CMEs, flares, and type II radio bursts. It is found that the SGRE CMEs are similar to those associated with ground level enhancement events. The CME speed is well correlated with the SGRE fluence. High CME speed is an important requirement for the occurrence of SGRE, while the flare size is not. Based on these results, we present a schematic model illustrating the spatially and temporally extended nature of SGRE related to the CME flux rope-shock structure., 12 pages, 9 figures, one table, 18th International Astrophysics Conference, Pasadena, CA, February 18 to 22, 2019. Accepted for publication

We compared the long-term variation (1992–2017) in solar polar brightening observed with the Nobeyama Radioheliograph, the polar solar-wind velocity with interplanetary scintillation observations at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, and the coronal-hole distribution computed by potential-field calculations of the solar corona using synoptic magnetogram data obtained at the National Solar Observatory/Kitt Peak. First, by comparing the solar-wind velocity [V] and the brightness temperature [Tb] in the polar region, we found good correlation coefficients (CCs) between V and Tb in the polar regions, CC = 0.91 (0.83) for the northern (southern) polar region, and we obtained the V–Tb relationship as V=12.6(Tb−10,667)^1/2+432. We also confirmed that the CC of V–Tb is higher than those of V–B and V–B/f, where B and f are the polar magnetic-field strength and magnetic-flux expansion rate, respectively. These results indicate that Tb is a more direct parameter than B or B/f for expressing solar-wind velocity. Next, we analyzed the long-term variation of the polar brightening and its relation to the area of the polar coronal hole [A]. As a result, we found that the polar brightening matches the probability distribution of the predicted coronal hole and that the CC between Tb and A is remarkably high, CC = 0.97. This result indicates that the polar brightening is strongly coupled to the size of the polar coronal hole. Therefore, the reasonable correlation of V – Tb is explained by V – A. In addition, by considering the anti-correlation between A and f found in a previous study, we suggest that the V – Tb relationship is another expression of the Wang–Sheeley relationship (V – 1/f) in the polar regions., ファイル公開：2020/03/01

We report on the linear relationship between the durations of two types of electromagnetic emissions associated with shocks driven by coronal mass ejections: sustained gamma-ray emission (SGRE) and interplanetary type II radio bursts. The relationship implies that shocks accelerate about 10 keV electrons (for type II bursts) and greater than 300 MeV protons (for SGRE) roughly over the same duration. The SGRE events are from the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on board the Fermi satellite, while the type II bursts are from the Radio and Plasma Wave Experiment (WAVES) on board the Wind spacecraft. Here we consider five SGRE events that were not included in a previous study of events with longer duration (greater than 5 hours). The five events are selected by relaxing the minimum duration to 3 hours. We found that some SGRE events had a tail that seems to last until the end of the associated type II burst. We pay special attention to the 2011 June 2 SGRE event that did not have a large solar energetic particle event at Earth or at the STEREO spacecraft that was well connected to the eruption. We suggest that the preceding CME acted as a magnetic barrier that mirrored protons back to Sun., 4 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, Submitted to 2019 URSI Asia Pacific Radio Science Conference (AP RASC 2019) to be held in New Delhi, India from 09 to 15 March, 2019

We report that the number of > 500 MeV protons (Ng) inferred from sustained gamma ray emission (SGRE) from the Sun is significantly correlated with that of protons propagating into space (NSEP) as solar energetic particles (SEPs). Under the shock paradigm for SGRE, shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) accelerate high-energy protons sending them toward the Sun to produce SGRE by interacting with the atmospheric particles. Particles also escape into the space away from the Sun to be detected as SEP events. Therefore, the significant NSEP vs. Ng correlation (correlation coefficient 0.77) is consistent with the common shock origin for the two proton populations. Furthermore, the underlying CMEs have properties akin to those involved in ground level enhancement (GLE) events indicating the presence of high-energy (up to GeV) particles required for SGRE. We show that the observed gamma-ray flux is an underestimate in limb events (central meridian distance > 60 degrees) because SGRE sources are partially occulted when the emission is spatially extended. With the assumption that the SEP spectrum at the shock nose is hard and that the 100 MeV particles are accelerated throughout the shock surface (half width in the range 60 to 120 degrees) we find that the latitudinal widths of SEP distributions are energy dependent with the smallest width at the highest energies. Not using the energy-dependent width results in an underestimate of NSEP in SGRE events occurring at relatively higher latitudes. Taking these two effects into account removes the apparent lack of NSEP - Ng correlation reported in previous studies., 17 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, to appear in the Astrophysical Journal

The moderate and intense geomagnetic storms are identified for the first 77 months of solar cycles 23 and 24. The solar sources responsible for the moderate geomagnetic storms are indentified during the same epoch for both the cycles. Solar cycle 24 has shown nearly 80% reduction in the occurrence of intense storms whereas it is only 40% in case of moderate storms when compared to previous cycle. The solar and interplanetary characteristics of the moderate storms driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) are compared for solar cycles 23 and 24 in order to see reduction in geoeffectiveness has anything to do with the occurrence of moderate storm. Though there is reduction in the occurrence of moderate storms, the Dst distribution does not show much difference. Similarly, the solar source parameters like CME speed, mass, and width did not show any significant variation in the average values as well as the distribution. The correlation between VBz and Dst is determined, and it is found to be moderate with value of 0.68 for cycle 23 and 0.61 for cycle 24. The magnetospheric energy flux parameter epsilon (epsilon) is estimated during the main phase of all moderate storms during solar cycles 23 and 24. The energy transfer decreased in solar cycle 24 when compared to cycle 23. These results are significantly different when all geomagnetic storms are taken into consideration for both the solar cycles.

Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main drivers of major geomagnetic storms. Therefore, a good estimate of the disturbance arrival time at Earth is required for space weather predictions. The STEREO and SOHO spacecraft were viewing the Sun in near quadrature during January 2010 to September 2012, providing a unique opportunity to study the radial speed (V (sub rad)) to expansion speed(V (sub exp)) relationship of Earth-directed CMEs. This relationship is useful in estimating the V (sub rad) of Earth-directed CMEs, when they are observed from Earth view only. We selected 19 Earth-directed CMEs observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO)/C3 coronagraph on SOHO and the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI)/COR2 coronagraph on STEREO during January 2010 to September 2012. We found that of the three tested geometric CME models the full ice-cream cone model of the CME describes best the V (sub rad) to V (sub exp) relationship, as suggested by earlier investigations. We also tested the prediction accuracy of the empirical shock arrival (ESA) model proposed by Gopalswamy et al.(2005a), while estimating the CME propagation speeds from the CME expansion speeds. If we use STEREO observations to estimate the CME width required to calculate the V (sub rad) from the V (sub exp) measurements, the mean absolute error (MAE) of the shock arrival times of the ESA model is 8.4 hours. If the LASCO measurements are used to estimate the CME width, the MAE still remains below 17 hours. Therefore, by using the simple V (sub rad) to V (sub exp) relationship to estimate the V (sub rad) of the Earth-directed CMEs, the ESA model is able to predict the shock arrival times with accuracy comparable to most other more complex models.

We report on the properties of halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) in solar cycles 23 and 24. We compare the HCMEs properties between the corresponding phases (rise, maximum, and declining) in cycles 23 and 24 in addition to comparing those between the whole cycles. Despite the significant decline in the sunspot number (SSN) in cycle 24, which dropped by 46% with respect to cycle 23, the abundance of HCMEs is similar in the two cycles. The HCME rate per SSN is 44% higher in cycle 24. In the maximum phase, cycle-24 rate normalized to SSN increased by 127% while the SSN dropped by 43%. The source longitudes of cycle-24 HCMEs are more uniformly distributed than those in cycle 23. We found that the average sky-plane speed in cycle 23 is ~16% higher than that in cycle 24. The size distributions of the associated flares between the two cycles and the corresponding phases are similar. The average speed at a central meridian distance (CMD) = 600 for cycle 23 is ~28% higher than that of cycle 24. We discuss the unusual bump in HCME activity in the declining phase of cycle 23 as due to exceptional active regions that produced many CMEs during October 2003 to October 2005. The differing HCME properties in the two cycles can be attributed to the anomalous expansion of cycle-24 CMEs. Considering the HCMEs in the rise, maximum and declining phases, we find that the maximum phase shows the highest contrast between the two cycles., 23 pages,5 figures,2 tables, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical journal(ApJ)

Solar cycle (SC) 24 has come to an end by the end of 2019, providing information on two full cycles to understand the manifestations of SC 24, the smallest cycle in the Space Age that has resulted in a weak heliospheric state indicated by the reduced pressure. The backreaction of the heliospheric state is to make the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) appear physically bigger than in SC 23, but their magnetic content has been diluted resulting in a lower geoeffectiveness. The heliospheric magnetic field is also lower in SC 24, leading to the dearth of high-energy solar energetic particle (SEP) events. These space weather events closely follow fast and wide (FW) CMEs. All but FW CMEs are higher in number in SC 24. The CME rate vs. sunspot number (SSN) correlation is high in both cycles but the rate increases faster in SC 24. We revisit the study of limb CMEs (those with source regions within 30 degrees from the limb) previously studied over partial cycles. We find that limb CMEs are slower in SC 24 as in the general population but wider. Limb halo CMEs follow the same trend of slower SC-24 CMEs. However, the SC-24 CMEs become halos at a shorter distance from the Sun. Thus, slower CMEs becoming halos sooner is a clear indication of the backreaction of the weaker heliospheric state on CMEs. We can further pin down the heliospheric state as the reason for the altered CME properties because the associated flares have similar distributions in the two cycles, unaffected by the heliospheric state., 15 pages, 11 figures, 3 tables, to appear in the Proc. 19th International Astrophysics Conference held in Santa Fe, New Mexico, March 9 - 13, 2020

Statistical dependencies among features of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), solar flares, and sigmoidal structures in soft-X-ray images were investigated. We applied analysis methods to all the features in the same way in order to investigate the reproducibility of the correlations among them, which may be found from the combination of previous statistical studies. The samples of 211 M-class and X-class flares, which were observed between 2006 and 2015 by Hinode/X-ray telescope, Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph, and GOES, were examined statistically. Five kinds of analysis were performed: Occurrence rate analysis, linear-correlation analysis, association analysis, the Kolmogorov--Smirnov test, and Anderson-Darling test. The analyses show three main results. First, the sigmoidal structure and long duration events (LDEs) has stronger dependency on the CME occurrence than large X-ray class events in on-disk events. Second, for the limb events, the significant dependency exists between LDEs and CME occurrence, and between X-ray class and CME occurrence. Third, there existed 32.4% of on-disk flare events, which had sigmoidal structure and were not accompanied by CMEs. However, the occurrence probability of CMEs without sigmoidal structures is very small, 8.8 %, in on-disk events. While the first and second results are consistent with previous studies, we newly provided the difference between the on-disk events and limb events. The third result that non-sigmoidal regions produce less eruptive events is also different from previous results. We suggest that sigmoidal structures in soft X-ray images will be a helpful feature for CME prediction regarding on-disk flare events., 37 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

Using the extensive and uniform data on coronal mass ejections (CMEs), solar energetic particle (SEP) events, and type II radio bursts during the SOHO era, we discuss how the CME properties such as speed, width and solar-source longitude decide whether CMEs are associated with type II radio bursts and SEP events. We discuss why some radio-quiet CMEs are associated with small SEP events while some radio-loud CMEs are not associated with SEP events. We conclude that either some fast and wide CMEs do not drive shocks or they drive weak shocks that do not produce significant levels of particle acceleration. We also infer that the Alfvén speed in the corona and near-Sun interplanetary medium ranges from

We use microwave imaging observations from the Nobeyama Radioheliograph at 17 GHz for long-term studies of solar activity. In particular, we use the polar and low-latitude brightness temperatures as proxies to the polar magnetic field and the active-regions, respectively. We also use the location of prominence eruptions as a proxy to the filament locations as a function of time. We show that the polar microwave brightness temperature is highly correlated with the polar magnetic field strength and the fast solar wind speed. We also show that the polar microwave brightness at one cycle is correlated with the low latitude brightness with a lag of about half a solar cycle. We use this correlation to predict the strength of the solar cycle: the smoothed sunspot numbers in the southern and northern hemispheres can be predicted as 89 and 59, respectively. These values indicate that cycle 25 will not be too different from cycle 24 in its strength. We also combined the rush to the pole data from Nobeyama prominences with historical data going back to 1860 to study the north-south asymmetry of sign reversal at solar poles. We find that the reversal asymmetry has a quasi-periodicity of 3-5 cycles., 21 pages, 10 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication on April 07, 2018 in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

We discuss our findings from a survey of all large solar energetic particle (SEP) events of Solar Cycles 23 and 24, i.e. the SEP events where the intensity of > 10 MeV protons observed by GOES was > 10 pfu. In our previous work (Gopalswamy et al. in Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 2673, 2014) we suggested that ground level enhancements (GLEs) in Cycles 23 and 24 also produce an intensity increase in the GOES > 700 MeV proton channel. Our survey, now extended to include all large SEP events of Cycle 23, confirms this to be true for all but two events: i) the GLE of 6 May 1998 (GLE57) for which GOES did not observe enhancement in > 700 MeV protons intensities and ii) a high-energy SEP event of 8 November 2000, for which GOES observed > 700 MeV protons but no GLE was recorded. Here we discuss these two exceptions. We compare GLE57 with other small GLEs, and the 8 November 2000 SEP event with those that showed similar intensity increases in the GOES > 700 MeV protons but produced GLEs. We find that, because GOES > 700 MeV proton intensity enhancements are typically small for small GLEs, they are difficult to discern near solar minima due to higher background. Our results also support that GLEs are generally observed when shocks of the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) form at heights 1.2 – 1.93 solar radii [ $\mathrm{R}_{\odot}$ ] and when the solar particle release occurs between 2 – 6 $\mathrm{R}_{\odot}$ . Our secondary findings support the view that the nose region of the CME-shock may be accelerating the first-arriving GLE particles and the observation of a GLE is also dependent on the latitudinal connectivity of the observer to the CME-shock nose. We conclude that the GOES > 700 MeV proton channel can be used as an indicator of GLEs excluding some rare exceptions, such as those discussed here.

We investigated the physical connection between interplanetary flux ropes (IFRs) near Earth and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) by comparing the magnetic field structures of IFRs and CME source regions. The analysis is based on the list of 54 pairs of ICMEs (interplanetary coronal mass ejections) and CMEs that are taken to be the most probable solar source events. We first attempted to identify the flux rope structure in each of the 54 ICMEs by fitting models with a cylinder and torus magnetic field geometry, both with a force-free field structure. This analysis determined the possible geometries of the identified flux ropes. Then we compared the flux rope geometries with the magnetic field structure of the solar source regions. We obtained the following results: (1) Flux rope structures are seen in 51 ICMEs out of the 54. The result implies that all ICMEs have an intrinsic flux rope structure, if the three exceptional cases are attributed to unfavorable observation conditions. (2) It is possible to find flux rope geometries with the main axis orientation close to the orientation of the magnetic polarity inversion line (PIL) in the solar source regions, the differences being less than 25°. (3) The helicity sign of an IFR is strongly controlled by the location of the solar source: flux ropes with positive (negative) helicity are associated with sources in the southern (northern) hemisphere (six exceptions were found). (4) Over two-thirds of the sources in the northern hemisphere are concentrated along PILs with orientations of 45° ± 30° (measured clockwise from the east), and over two-thirds in the southern hemisphere along PILs with orientations of 135° ± 30°, both corresponding to the Hale boundaries. These results strongly support the idea that a flux rope with the main axis parallel to the PIL erupts in a CME and that the erupted flux rope propagates through the interplanetary space with its orientation maintained and is observed as an IFR.

We report on the 2017 September 10 ground-level enhancement (GLE) event associated with a coronal mass ejection whose initial acceleration (~9.1 km s−2) and initial speed (~4300 km s−1) were among the highest observed in the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory era. The GLE event was of low intensity (~4.4% above background) and softer-than-average fluence spectrum. We suggest that poor connectivity (longitudinal and latitudinal) of the source to Earth compounded by the weaker ambient magnetic field contributed to these GLE properties. Events with similar high initial speed either lacked GLE association or had softer fluence spectra. The shock-formation height inferred from the metric type II burst was ~1.4 Rs, consistent with other GLE events. The shock height at solar particle release (SPR) was ~4.4 ± 0.38 Rs, consistent with the parabolic relationship between the shock height at SPR and source longitude. At SPR, the eastern flank of the shock was observed in EUV projected on the disk near the longitudes magnetically connected to Earth: W60 to W45., The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 863 (2), ISSN:1967-2014, ISSN:2041-8213

We report on a technique to construct a flux rope (FR) from eruption data at the Sun. The technique involves line-of-sight magnetic fields, post-eruption arcades in the corona, and white-light coronal mass ejections (CMEs) so that the FR geometric and magnetic properties can be fully defined in addition to the kinematic properties. We refer to this FR as FRED (Flux Rope from Eruption Data). We illustrate the FRED construction using the 2012 July 12 eruption and compare the coronal and interplanetary properties of the FR. The results indicate that the FRED input should help make realistic predictions of the components of the FR magnetic field in the heliosphere., 4 pages, 2 figures, IAU Symposium 335: Space Weather of the Heliosphere: Processes and Forecasts

The bootstrap method is used to determine errors of basic attributes of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) visually identified in images obtained by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission’s Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) instruments. The basic parameters of CMEs are stored, among others, in a database known as the SOHO/LASCO CME catalog and are widely employed for many research studies. The basic attributes of CMEs (e.g. velocity and acceleration) are obtained from manually generated height-time plots. The subjective nature of manual measurements introduces random errors that are difficult to quantify. In many studies the impact of such measurement errors is overlooked. In this study we present a new possibility to estimate measurements errors in the basic attributes of CMEs. This approach is a computer-intensive method because it requires repeating the original data analysis procedure several times using replicate datasets. This is also commonly called the bootstrap method in the literature. We show that the bootstrap approach can be used to estimate the errors of the basic attributes of CMEs having moderately large numbers of height-time measurements. The velocity errors are in the vast majority small and depend mostly on the number of height-time points measured for a particular event. In the case of acceleration, the errors are significant, and for more than half of all CMEs, they are larger than the acceleration itself.