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Background A self-harm episode is a major risk factor for repeat self-harm. Existing tools to assess and predict repeat self-harm have major methodological limitations, and few are externally validated.Objective To develop and validate a risk assessment model of repeat self-harm up to 6 months after an episode of non-fatal self-harm that resulted in an emergency visit to hospital or specialised care.Methods Using Swedish national registers, we identified 53 172 people aged≥10 years who self-harmed during 2008–2012. We allocated 37 523 individuals to development (2820 or 7.5% repeat self-harm incidents within 6 months) and 15 649 to geographic validation (1373 repeat episodes) samples, based on region of residence. In a temporal validation of people who self-harmed during 2018–2019, we identified 25 036 individuals (2886 repeat episodes). We fitted a multivariable accelerated failure time model to predict risk of repeat self-harm.Findings In the external validations (n=40 685), rates of repeat self-harm were 8.8%–11.5% over 6 months. The final model retained 17 factors. Calibration and discrimination were similar in both validation samples, with observed-to-expected ratio=1.15 (95% CI=1.09 to 1.21) and c-statistic=0.72 (95% CI=0.70 to 0.73) in the geographical validation. At 6 months and a 10% risk cut-off, sensitivity was 51.5% (95% CI=48.8% to 54.2%) and specificity was 80.7% (95% CI=80.1% to 81.4%) in geographic validation; corresponding values were 56.9% (95% CI=55.1% to 58.7%) and 76.0% (95% CI=75.5% to 76.6%) in temporal validation. Discrimination was slightly worse at the 1-month prediction horizon (c-statistics of 0.66–0.68).Conclusions Using mostly routinely collected data, simple risk assessment models and tools can provide acceptable levels of accuracy for repeat of self-harm.Clinical implications This risk model (OXford SElf-harm repeat tool) may assist clinical decision-making.

Introduction Due to a change in diagnostic prerequisites and the inclusion of novel diagnostic entities, the implementation of the 11th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11) will presumably change prevalence rates of specific mental, behavioural or neurodevelopmental disorders and result in an altered prevalence rate for this grouping overall. This scoping review aims to summarise the characteristics of primary studies examining the prevalence of mental, behavioural or neurodevelopmental disorders based on ICD-11 criteria. The knowledge attained through this review will primarily characterise the methodological approaches of this research field and additionally assist in deciding which psychiatric diagnoses are—given the current literature—most relevant for subsequent systematic reviews and meta-analyses intended to approximate the magnitude of prevalence rates while providing a first glimpse of the range of expected (differences in) prevalence rates in these conditions.Methods and analysis MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and PsycINFO will be searched from 2011 to present without any language filters. This scoping review will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Review guidelines.We will consider (a) cross-sectional and longitudinal studies (b) focusing on the prevalence rates of mental, behavioural or neurodevelopmental disorders (c) using ICD-11 criteria for inclusion. The omission of (a) case numbers and sample size, (b) study period and period of data collection or (c) diagnostic procedures on full-text level is considered an exclusion criterion.This screening will be conducted by two reviewers independently from one another and a third reviewer will be consulted with disagreements. Data extraction and synthesis will focus on outlining methodological aspects.Ethics and dissemination We intend to publish our review in a scientific journal. As the primary data are publicly available, we do not require research ethics approval.

Summary: Background: Homelessness is associated with adverse health and social outcomes. People experiencing homelessness have been found to have a high risk of violent crime victimisation as well as high prevalence of psychiatric disorders. It is poorly understood whether experiencing homelessness is associated with additional risks of violent offending and whether psychiatric disorders contribute to these risks. We examined the association between homelessness, psychiatric disorders, and first violence offence leading to conviction. Methods: We did a nationwide, register-based cohort study of all Danish residents who were alive at least 1 day during the study period, born between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2006, and aged 15 years or older retrieved from the Danish Civil Registration System, which was linked to registers with information on homelessness, health care, and criminality. The exposure was any experience of homelessness, which was defined as having at least one contact with a homeless shelter during the study period. The outcome was first violent offence leading to a conviction. We calculated incidence rates per 10 000 person-years, incidence rate ratios (IRRs) using Poisson regression analysis, and probability of conviction of a violent offence using an Aalen–Johansen estimator. Analyses were stratified by sex and adjusted for calendar year of the study period, age, other sociodemographic factors, and psychiatric disorders. Findings: The study cohort included 1 786 433 Danish residents aged 15–42 years living in Denmark at some point from Jan 1, 2001, to Dec 31, 2021, contributing to 21 336 322 person-years at risk, of whom 57 084 (3·2%) individuals had their first violent offence leading to conviction during follow-up. 10 years after their first contact with a homeless shelter, 22·9% (95% CI 21·6–24·2) of men and 7·7% (6·8–8·7) of women had committed at least one violent crime leading to conviction. The fully adjusted IRRs of a violent offence leading to conviction were 4·8 (4·5–5·1) in men and 6·3 (5·6–7·2) in women experiencing homelessness compared with individuals who had not experienced homelessness. The IRR for a violent offence leading to conviction was highest in individuals experiencing homelessness and having co-occurring psychiatric disorders compared with those not experiencing homelessness and without co-occurring psychiatric disorders, especially drug use disorders (IRR in those experiencing homelessness and having a drug use disorder: 15·3 [14·1–16·7] in men and 40·1 [33·9–47·5] in women compared with individuals not experiencing homelessness and having no drug use disorder). Interpretation: Individuals experiencing homelessness had higher risks of a violent offence leading to conviction than those who had not experienced homelessness. In addition to preventing homelessness, public health and policy should consider how to reduce the risk of adverse outcomes in people experiencing homelessness. Funding: Lundbeck Foundation.

Aim To describe the pattern of the prevalence of mental health problems during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic and examine the impact of containment measures on these trends.Methods We identified articles published until 30 August 2021 that reported the prevalence of mental health problems in the general population at two or more time points. A crowd of 114 reviewers extracted data on prevalence, study and participant characteristics. We collected information on the number of days since the first SARS-CoV-2 infection in the study country, the stringency of containment measures and the number of cases and deaths. We synthesised changes in prevalence during the pandemic using a random-effects model. We used dose-response meta-analysis to evaluate the trajectory of the changes in mental health problems.Results We included 41 studies for 7 mental health conditions. The average odds of symptoms increased during the pandemic (mean OR ranging from 1.23 to 2.08). Heterogeneity was very large and could not be explained by differences in participants or study characteristics. Average odds of psychological distress, depression and anxiety increased during the first 2 months of the pandemic, with increased stringency of the measures, reported infections and deaths. The confidence in the evidence was low to very low.Conclusions We observed an initial increase in the average risk of psychological distress, depression-related and anxiety-related problems during the first 2 months of the pandemic. However, large heterogeneity suggests that different populations had different responses to the challenges imposed by the pandemic.

Background New National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance endorses the prescription of statins in larger population groups for the prevention of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular morbidity and mortality, especially in people with severe mental illness. However, the evidence base for their safety and risk/benefit balance in depression is not established.Objectives This study aims to assess the real-world mortality and adverse events of statins in depressive disorders.Methods Population-based, nationwide (England), between-subject, cohort study. We used electronic health records (QResearch database) of people aged 18–100 years with first-episode depression, registered with English primary care practices over January 1998–August 2020 for 12(+) months, divided into statin users versus non-users.Primary safety outcomes included all-cause mortality and any adverse event measured at 2, 6 and 12 months. Multivariable logistic regression was employed to control for several potential confounders and calculate adjusted ORs (aORs) with 99% CIs.Findings From over 1 050 105 patients with depression (42.64% males, mean age 43.23±18.32 years), 21 384 (2.04%) died, while 707 111 (67.34%) experienced at least one adverse event during the 12-month follow-up. Statin use was associated with lower mortality over 12 months (range aOR2–12months 0.66–0.67, range 99% CI 0.60 to 0.73) and with lower adverse events over 6 months (range aOR2–6months 0.90–0.96, range 99% CI 0.91 to 0.99), but not at 1 year (aOR12months 0.99, 99% CI 0.96 to 1.03). No association with any other individual outcome measure (ie, any other neuropsychiatric symptoms) was identified.Conclusions We found no evidence that statin use among people with depression increases mortality or other adverse events.Clinical implications Our findings support the safety of updated NICE guidelines for prescribing statins in people with depressive disorders.

The number of prediction models for suicide-related outcomes has grown substantially in recent years. These models aim to assist in stratifying risk, improve clinical decision-making, and facilitate a personalised medicine approach to the prevention of suicidal behaviour. However, there are contrasting views as to whether prediction models have potential to inform and improve assessment of suicide risk. In this perspective, we discuss common misconceptions that characterise criticisms of suicide risk prediction research. First, we discuss the limitations of a classification approach to risk assessment (eg, categorising individuals as low-risk vs high-risk), and highlight the benefits of probability estimation. Second, we argue that the preoccupation with classification measures (such as positive predictive value) when assessing a model’s predictive performance is inappropriate, and discuss the importance of clinical context in determining the most appropriate risk threshold for a given model. Third, we highlight that adequate discriminative ability for a prediction model depends on the clinical area, and emphasise the importance of calibration, which is almost entirely overlooked in the suicide risk prediction literature. Finally, we point out that conclusions about the clinical utility and health-economic value of suicide prediction models should be based on appropriate measures (such as net benefit and decision-analytic modelling), and highlight the role of impact assessment studies. We conclude that the discussion around using suicide prediction models and risk assessment tools requires more nuance and statistical expertise, and that guidelines and suicide prevention strategies should be informed by the new and higher quality evidence in the field.

IntroductionTraumatic brain injury (TBI) is associated with health problems across multiple domains and TBI patients are reported to have high rates of medication use. However, prior evidence is thin due to methodological limitations. Our aim was thus to examine the use of a wide spectrum of medications prescribed to address pain and somatic conditions in a population-based cohort of TBI patients, and to compare this to a sex- and age-matched cohort. We also examined how patient factors such as sex, age, and TBI severity were associated with medication use.MethodsWe assessed Swedish nationwide registers to include all individuals treated for TBI in hospitals or specialist outpatient care between 2006 and 2012. We examined dispensed prescriptions for eight different non-psychotropic medication classes for the 12 months before, and 12 months after, the TBI. We applied a fixed-effects model to compare TBI patients with the matched population cohort. We also stratified TBI patients by sex, age, TBI severity and carried out comparisons using a generalized linear model.ResultsWe identified 239,425 individuals with an incident TBI and 239,425 matched individuals. TBI patients were more likely to use any medication [Odds ratio (OR) = 2.03, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 2.00–2.05], to present with polypharmacy (OR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.90–2.02), and to use each of the eight medication classes before their TBI, as compared to the matched population cohort. Following the TBI, TBI patients were more likely to use any medication (OR = 1.83, 95% CI = 1.80–1.86), to present with polypharmacy (OR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.67–1.80), and to use all medication classes, although differences were attenuated. However, differences increased for antibiotics/antivirals (OR = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.99–2.05) and NSAIDs/antirheumatics (OR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.59–1.65) post-TBI. We also found that females and older patients were more likely to use medications after their TBI than males and younger patients, respectively. Patients with more severe TBIs demonstrated increased use of antibiotics/ antivirals and NSAIDs/antirheumatics than those with less severe TBIs.DiscussionTaken together, our results point to poor overall health in TBI patients, suggesting that medical follow-up should be routine, particularly in females with TBI, and include a review of medication use to address potential polypharmacy.

Abstract Oxford Mental Illness and Suicide tool (OxMIS) is a standardised, scalable, and transparent instrument for suicide risk assessment in people with severe mental illness (SMI) based on 17 sociodemographic, criminal history, familial, and clinical risk factors. However, alongside most prediction models in psychiatry, external validations are currently lacking. We utilised a Finnish population sample of all persons diagnosed by mental health services with SMI (schizophrenia-spectrum and bipolar disorders) between 1996 and 2017 (n = 137,112). To evaluate the performance of OxMIS, we initially calculated the predicted 12-month suicide risk for each individual by weighting risk factors by effect sizes reported in the original OxMIS prediction model and converted to a probability. This probability was then used to assess the discrimination and calibration of the OxMIS model in this external sample. Within a year of assessment, 1.1% of people with SMI (n = 1475) had died by suicide. The overall discrimination of the tool was good, with an area under the curve of 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.69–0.71). The model initially overestimated suicide risks in those with elevated predicted risks of >5% over 12 months (Harrell’s Emax = 0.114), which applied to 1.3% (n = 1780) of the cohort. However, when we used a 5% maximum predicted suicide risk threshold as is recommended clinically, the calibration was excellent (ICI = 0.002; Emax = 0.005). Validating clinical prediction tools using routinely collected data can address research gaps in prediction psychiatry and is a necessary step to translating such models into clinical practice.

Background Bipolar disorder (BD) is associated with increased mortality, but evidence on cause-specific mortality is limited.Objective To investigate cause-specific premature excess mortality in BD.Methods Finnish nationwide cohort study of individuals with and without a diagnosis of BD who were aged 15–64 years during 2004–2018. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) with 95% CIs were calculated for BD using the mortality rates in the Finnish general population without BD as weights. Causes of death were defined by the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision codes.Findings Of the included 47 018 individuals with BD, 3300 (7%) died during follow-up. Individuals with BD had sixfold higher mortality due to external causes (SMR: 6.01, 95% CI: 5.68, 6.34) and twofold higher mortality due to somatic causes (SMR: 2.06, 95% CI: 1.97, 2.15). Of the deaths due to external causes, 83% (1061/1273) were excess deaths, whereas 51% (1043/2027) of the deaths due to somatic causes were excess. About twice the number of potential years of life were lost in excess due to external causes than due to somatic causes. Alcohol-related causes contributed more to excess mortality than deaths due to cardiovascular disease.Conclusion External causes of death contributed more to the mortality gap than somatic causes after controlling for age-specific background general population mortality.Clinical implication A balanced consideration between therapeutic response, different treatment options and risk of cause-specific mortality is needed to prevent premature mortality in BD and to reduce the mortality gap.

Background Although there is robust evidence for several factors which may precipitate self-harm, the contributions of different physical injuries are largely unknown.Objective To examine whether specific physical injuries are associated with risks of self-harm in people with psychiatric disorders.Methods By using population and secondary care registers, we identified all people born in Finland (1955–2000) and Sweden (1948–1993) with schizophrenia-spectrum disorder (n=136 182), bipolar disorder (n=68 437) or depression (n=461 071). Falls, transport-related injury, traumatic brain injury and injury from interpersonal assault were identified within these subsamples. We used conditional logistic regression models adjusted for age and calendar month to compare self-harm risk in the week after each injury to earlier weekly control periods, which allowed us to account for unmeasured confounders, including genetics and early environments.Findings A total of 249 210 individuals had been diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder and a physical injury during the follow-up. The absolute risk of self-harm after a physical injury ranged between transport-related injury and injury from interpersonal assault (averaging 17.4–37.0 events per 10 000 person-weeks). Risk of self-harm increased by a factor of two to three (adjusted OR: 2.0–2.9) in the week following a physical injury, as compared with earlier, unexposed periods for the same individuals.Conclusions Physical injuries are important proximal risk factors for self-harm in people with psychiatric disorders.Clinical implications Mechanisms underlying the associations could provide treatment targets. When treating patients with psychiatric illnesses, emergency and trauma medical services should actively work in liaison with psychiatric services to implement self-harm prevention strategies.

Introduction There is concern regarding suicidal behaviour risk during selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) treatment among the young. A clinically useful model for predicting suicidal behaviour risk should have high predictive performance in terms of discrimination and calibration; transparency and ease of implementation are desirable.Methods and analysis Using Swedish national registers, we will identify individuals initiating an SSRI aged 8–24 years 2007–2020. We will develop: (A) a model based on a broad set of predictors, and (B) a model based on a restricted set of predictors. For the broad predictor model, we will consider an ensemble of four base models: XGBoost (XG), neural net (NN), elastic net logistic regression (EN) and support vector machine (SVM). The predictors with the greatest contribution to predictive performance in the base models will be determined. For the restricted predictor model, clinical input will be used to select predictors based on the top predictors in the broad model, and inputted in each of the XG, NN, EN and SVM models. If any show superiority in predictive performance as defined by the area under the receiver-operator curve, this model will be selected as the final model; otherwise, the EN model will be selected. The training and testing samples will consist of data from 2007 to 2017 and from 2018 to 2020, respectively. We will additionally assess the final model performance in individuals receiving a depression diagnosis within 90 days before SSRI initiation.The aims are to (A) develop a model predicting suicidal behaviour risk after SSRI initiation among children and youths, using machine learning methods, and (B) develop a model with a restricted set of predictors, favouring transparency and scalability.Ethics and dissemination The research is approved by the Swedish Ethical Review Authority (2020–06540). We will disseminate findings by publishing in peer-reviewed open-access journals, and presenting at international conferences.

Abstract Oxford Mental Illness and Violence (OxMIV) addresses the need in mental health services for a scalable, transparent and valid tool to predict violent behaviour in patients with severe mental illness. However, external validations are lacking. Therefore, we have used a Dutch sample of general psychiatric patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (N = 637) to evaluate the performance of OxMIV in predicting interpersonal violence over 3 years. The predictors and outcome were measured with standardized instruments and multiple sources of information. Patients were mostly male (n = 493, 77%) and, on average, 27 (SD = 7) years old. The outcome rate was 9% (n = 59). Discrimination, as measured by the area under the curve, was moderate at 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.61–0.73). Calibration-in-the-large was adequate, with a ratio between predicted and observed events of 1.2 and a Brier score of 0.09. At the individual level, risks were systematically underestimated in the original model, which was remedied by recalibrating the intercept and slope of the model. Probability scores generated by the recalibrated model can be used as an adjunct to clinical decision-making in Dutch mental health services.

Abstract Background Cost-effectiveness analysis needs to be considered when introducing new tools and treatments to clinical services. The number of new assessment tools in mental health has rapidly expanded, including suicide risk assessment. Such suicide-based assessments, when linked to preventative interventions, are integral to high-quality mental health care for people with severe mental illness (SMI). We examined the cost implications of implementing Oxford Mental Illness and Suicide (OxMIS), an evidence-based, scalable suicide risk assessment tool that provides probabilistic estimates of suicide risk over 12 months for people with SMI in England. Methods We developed a decision analytic model using secondary data to estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of incorporating OxMIS into clinical decision-making in secondary care as compared to usual care. Cost-effectiveness was measured in terms of costs per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Uncertainty was addressed with deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results Conducting suicide risk assessment with OxMIS was potentially cheaper than clinical risk assessment alone by £250 (95% confidence interval, −786;31) to £599 (−1,321;−156) (in 2020–2021 prices) per person with SMI and associated with a small increase in quality of life (0.01 [−0.03;0.05] to 0.01 QALY, [−0.04;0.07]). The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of implementing OxMIS was cost saving. Using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, 99.96% of 10,000 simulations remained cost saving. Conclusion Cost-effectiveness analysis can be conducted on risk prediction models. Implementing one such model that focuses on suicide risk in a high-risk population can lead to cost savings and improved health outcomes, especially if explicitly linked to preventative treatments.

Backgroundβ-blockers are widely used for treating cardiac conditions and are suggested for the treatment of anxiety and aggression, although research is conflicting and limited by methodological problems. In addition, β-blockers have been associated with precipitating other psychiatric disorders and suicidal behaviour, but findings are mixed. We aimed to examine associations between β-blockers and psychiatric and behavioural outcomes in a large population-based cohort in Sweden.Methods and findingsWe conducted a population-based longitudinal cohort study using Swedish nationwide high-quality healthcare, mortality, and crime registers. We included 1,400,766 individuals aged 15 years or older who had collected β-blocker prescriptions and followed them for 8 years between 2006 and 2013. We linked register data on dispensed β-blocker prescriptions with main outcomes, hospitalisations for psychiatric disorders (not including self-injurious behaviour or suicide attempts), suicidal behaviour (including deaths from suicide), and charges of violent crime. We applied within-individual Cox proportional hazards regression to compare periods on treatment with periods off treatment within each individual in order to reduce possible confounding by indication, as this model inherently adjusts for all stable confounders (e.g., genetics and health history). We also adjusted for age as a time-varying covariate. In further analyses, we adjusted by stated indications, prevalent users, cardiac severity, psychiatric and crime history, individual β-blockers, β-blocker selectivity and solubility, and use of other medications. In the cohort, 86.8% (n = 1,215,247) were 50 years and over, and 52.2% (n = 731,322) were women. During the study period, 6.9% (n = 96,801) of the β-blocker users were hospitalised for a psychiatric disorder, 0.7% (n = 9,960) presented with suicidal behaviour, and 0.7% (n = 9,405) were charged with a violent crime. There was heterogeneity in the direction of results; within-individual analyses showed that periods of β-blocker treatment were associated with reduced hazards of psychiatric hospitalisations (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91 to 0.93, p < 0.001), charges of violent crime (HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.81 to 0.93, p < 0.001), and increased hazards of suicidal behaviour (HR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.15, p = 0.012). After stratifying by diagnosis, reduced associations with psychiatric hospitalisations during β-blocker treatment were mainly driven by lower hospitalisation rates due to depressive (HR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.89 to 0.96, p < 0.001) and psychotic disorders (HR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.85 to 0.93, p < 0.001). Reduced associations with violent charges remained in most sensitivity analyses, while associations with psychiatric hospitalisations and suicidal behaviour were inconsistent. Limitations include that the within-individual model does not account for confounders that could change during treatment, unless measured and adjusted for in the model.ConclusionsIn this population-wide study, we found no consistent links between β-blockers and psychiatric outcomes. However, β-blockers were associated with reductions in violence, which remained in sensitivity analyses. The use of β-blockers to manage aggression and violence could be investigated further.

Abstract Attitudes to COVID-19 vaccination vary considerably within and between countries. Although the contribution of socio-demographic factors to these attitudes has been studied, the role of social media and how it interacts with news about vaccine development and efficacy is uncertain. We examined around 2 million tweets from 522,893 persons in the UK from November 2020 to January 2021 to evaluate links between Twitter content about vaccines and major scientific news announcements about vaccines. The proportion of tweets with negative vaccine content varied, with reductions of 20–24% on the same day as major news announcement. However, the proportion of negative tweets reverted back to an average of around 40% within a few days. Engagement rates were higher for negative tweets. Public health messaging could consider the dynamics of Twitter-related traffic and the potential contribution of more targeted social media campaigns to address vaccine hesitancy.

BackgroundUsing other central nervous system (CNS) medications in combination with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) treatment is common. Despite this, there is limited evidence on the impact on suicidal behavior of combining specific medications. We aim to provide evidence on signals for suicidal behavior risk when initiating CNS drugs during and outside of SSRI treatment.Materials and methodsUsing a linkage of Swedish national registers, we identified a national cohort of SSRI users aged 6–59 years residing in Sweden 2006–2013. We used a two-stage Bayesian Poisson model to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of suicidal behavior in periods up to 90 days before and after a CNS drug initiation during SSRI treatment, while accounting for multiple testing. For comparison, and to assess whether there were interactions between SSRIs and other CNS drugs, we also estimated the IRR of initiating the CNS drug without SSRI treatment.ResultsWe identified 53 common CNS drugs initiated during SSRI treatment, dispensed to 262,721 individuals. We found 20 CNS drugs with statistically significant IRRs. Of these, two showed a greater risk of suicidal behavior after versus before initiating the CNS drug (alprazolam, IRR = 1.39; flunitrazepam, IRR = 1.83). We found several novel signals of drugs that were statistically significantly associated with a reduction in the suicidal behavior risk. We did not find evidence of harmful interactions between SSRIs and the selected CNS drugs.ConclusionSeveral of the detected signals for reduced risk correspond to drugs where there is previous evidence of benefit for antidepressant augmentation (e.g., olanzapine, quetiapine, lithium, buspirone, and mirtazapine). Novel signals of reduced suicidal behavior risk, including for lamotrigine, valproic acid, risperidone, and melatonin, warrant further investigation.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic required mental health services around the world to adapt quickly to the new restrictions and regulations put in place to reduce the risk of transmission. As face-to-face contact became difficult, virtual methods were implemented to continue to safely provide mental health care. However, it is unclear to what extent service provision transitioned to telemental health worldwide. ObjectiveWe aimed to systematically review the global research literature on how mental health service provision adapted during the first year of the pandemic. MethodsWe searched systematically for quantitative papers focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental health services published until April 13, 2021, in the PubMed, Embase, medRxiv, and bioXriv electronic bibliographic databases, using the COVID-19 Open Access Project online platform. The screening process and data extraction were independently completed by at least two authors, and any disagreement was resolved by discussion with a senior member of the team. The findings were summarized narratively in the context of each country’s COVID-19 Stringency Index, which reflects the stringency of a government’s response to COVID-19 restrictions at a specific time. ResultsOf the identified 24,339 records, 101 papers were included after the screening process. Reports on general services (n=72) showed that several countries’ face-to-face services reduced their activities at the start of the pandemic, with reductions in the total number of delivered visits and with some services forced to close. In contrast, telemental health use rapidly increased in many countries across the world at the beginning of the pandemic (n=55), with almost complete virtualization of general and specialistic care services by the end of the first year. Considering the reported COVID-19 Stringency Index values, the increased use of virtual means seems to correspond to periods when the Stringency Index values were at their highest in several countries. However, due to specific care requirements, telemental health could not be used in certain subgroups of patients, such as those on clozapine or depot treatments and those who continued to need face-to-face visits. ConclusionsDuring the pandemic, mental health services had to adapt quickly in the short term, implementing or increasing the use of telemental health services across the globe. Limited access to digital means, poor digital skills, and patients’ preferences and individual needs may have contributed to differences in implementing and accessing telemental health services during the pandemic. In the long term, a blended approach, combining in-person and virtual modalities, that takes into consideration the needs, preferences, and digital skills of patients may better support the future development of mental health services. It will be required to improve confidence with digital device use, training, and experience in all modalities for both clinicians and service users.

BackgroundTwo OxRisk risk assessment tools, the Oxford Mental Illness and Suicide (OxMIS) and the Oxford Mental Illness and Violence (OxMIV), were developed and validated using national linked registries in Sweden, to assess suicide and violence risk in individuals with severe mental illness (schizophrenia-spectrum disorders and bipolar disorders). In this study, we aim to examine the feasibility and acceptability of the tools in three different clinical services.MethodWe employed a two-step mixed-methods approach, by combining quantitative analyses of risk scores of 147 individual patients, and thematic analyses of qualitative data. First, 38 clinicians were asked to use OxMIS and OxMIV when conducting their routine risk assessments in patients with severe mental illness. The risk scores for each patient (which provide a probability of the outcome over 12 months) were then compared to the unstructured clinical risk assessment made by the treating clinician. Second, we carried out semi-structured interviews with the clinicians on the acceptability and utility of the tools. Thematic analysis was conducted on the qualitative data to identify common themes, in terms of the utility, accuracy, and acceptability of the tools. The investigations were undertaken in three general adult psychiatric clinics located in the cities of Barcelona and Sevilla (Spain), and Changsha (China).ResultsMedian risk probabilities over 12 months for OxMIS were 1.0% in the Spanish patient sample and 1.9% in the Chinese sample. For OxMIV, they were 0.7% (Spanish) and 0.8% (Chinese). In the thematic analysis, clinicians described the tools as easy to use, and thought that the risk score improved risk management. Potential additions to predictors were suggested, including family history and the patient's support network. Concordance rates of risk estimates between the tools and clinicians was high for violence (94.4%; 68/72) and moderate for suicide (50.0%; 36/72).ConclusionBoth OxMIS and OxMIV are feasible and practical in different general adult psychiatric settings. Clinicians interviewed found that both tools provide a useful structured approach to estimate the risk of suicide and violence. Risk scores from OxMIS and OxMIV can also be used to assist clinical decision-making for future management.

Abstract Background Violence risk assessment is a routine part of clinical services in mental health, and in particular secure psychiatric hospitals. The use of prediction models and risk tools can assist clinical decision-making on risk management, including decisions about further assessments, referral, hospitalization and treatment. In recent years, scalable evidence-based tools, such as Forensic Psychiatry and Violent Oxford (FoVOx), have been developed and validated for patients with mental illness. However, their acceptability and utility in clinical settings is not known. Therefore, we conducted a clinical impact study in multiple institutions that provided specialist mental health service. Methods We followed a two-step mixed-methods design. In phase one, we examined baseline risk factors on 330 psychiatric patients from seven forensic psychiatric institutes in China. In phase two, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 11 clinicians regarding violence risk assessment from ten mental health centres. We compared the FoVOx score on each admission (n = 110) to unstructured clinical risk assessment and used a thematic analysis to assess clinician views on the accuracy and utility of this tool. Results The median estimated probability of violent reoffending (FoVOx score) within 1 year was 7% (range 1–40%). There was fair agreement (72/99, 73% agreement) on the risk categories between FoVOx and clinicians’ assessment on risk categories, and moderate agreement (10/12, 83% agreement) when examining low and high risk categories. In a majority of cases (56/101, 55%), clinicians thought the FoVOx score was an accurate representation of the violent risk of an individual patient. Clinicians suggested some additional clinical, social and criminal risk factors should be considered during any comprehensive assessment. In addition, FoVOx was considered to be helpful in assisting clinical decision-making and individual risk assessment. Ten out of 11 clinicians reported that FoVOx was easy to use, eight out of 11 was practical, and all clinicians would consider using it in the future. Conclusions Clinicians found that violence risk assessment could be improved by using a simple, scalable tool, and that FoVOx was feasible and practical to use.

BackgroundAlthough around 70% of the world's prison population live in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), risk assessment tools for criminal recidivism have been developed and validated in high-income countries (HICs). Validating such tools in LMIC settings is important for the risk management of people released from prison, development of evidence-based intervention programmes, and effective allocation of limited resources.MethodsWe aimed to externally validate a scalable risk assessment tool, the Oxford Risk of Recidivism (OxRec) tool, which was developed in Sweden, using data from a cohort of people released from prisons in Tajikistan. Data were collected from interviews (for predictors) and criminal records (for some predictors and main outcomes). Individuals were first interviewed in prison and then followed up over a 1-year period for post-release violent reoffending outcomes. We assessed the predictive performance of OxRec by testing discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; AUC) and calibration (calibration statistics and plots). In addition, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for different predetermined risk thresholds.ResultsThe cohort included 970 individuals released from prison. During the 12-month follow-up, 144 (15%) were reincarcerated for violent crimes. The original model performed well. The discriminative ability of OxRec Tajikistan was good (AUC = 0.70; 95% CI 0.66–0.75). The calibration plot suggested an underestimation of observed risk probabilities. However, after recalibration, model performance was improved (Brier score = 0.12; calibration in the large was 1.09). At a selected risk threshold of 15%, the tool had a sensitivity of 60%, specificity of 65%, PPV 23% and NPV 90%. In addition, OxRec was feasible to use, despite challenges to risk prediction in LMICs.ConclusionIn an external validation in a LMIC, the OxRec tool demonstrated good performance in multiple measures. OxRec could be used in Tajikistan to help prioritize interventions for people who are at high-risk of violent reoffending after incarceration and screen out others who are at lower risk of violent reoffending. The use of validated risk assessment tools in LMICs could improve risk stratification and inform the development of future interventions tailored at modifiable risk factors for recidivism, such as substance use and mental health problems.

BackgroundA large proportion of the prison population experiences substance use disorders (SUDs), which are associated with poor physical and mental health, social marginalization, and economic disadvantage. Despite the global situation characterized by the incarceration of large numbers of people with SUD and the health problems associated with SUD, people in prison are underrepresented in public health research. ObjectiveThe overall objective of the PriSUD (Diagnosing and Treating Substance Use Disorders in Prison)-Nordic project is to develop new knowledge that will contribute to better mental and physical health, improved quality of life, and better life expectancies among people with SUD in prison. MethodsPriSUD-Nordic is based on a multidisciplinary mixed method approach, including the methodological perspectives of both quantitative and qualitative methods. The qualitative part includes ethnographic fieldwork and semistructured interviews. The quantitative part is a registry-based cohort study including national registry data from Norway, Denmark, and Sweden. The national prison cohorts will comprise approximately 500,000 individuals and include all people imprisoned in Norway, Sweden, and Demark during the period from 2000 to 2019. The project will investigate the prison population during three different time periods: before imprisonment, during imprisonment, and after release. ResultsPriSUD-Nordic was funded by The Research Council of Norway in December 2019, and funding started in 2020. Data collection is ongoing and will be completed in the first quarter of 2022. Data will be analyzed in spring 2022 and the results will be disseminated in 2022-2023. The PriSUD-Nordic project has formal ethical approval related to all work packages. ConclusionsPriSUD-Nordic will be the first research project to investigate the epidemiology and the lived experiences of people with SUD in the Nordic prison population. Successful research in this field will have the potential to identify significant areas of benefit and will have important implications for ongoing policy related to interventions for SUD in the prison population. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)DERR1-10.2196/35182

Summary: Background: People who experience incarceration die by suicide at a higher rate than those who have no prior criminal justice system contact, but little is known about the effectiveness of interventions in other criminal justice settings. We aimed to synthesise evidence regarding the effectiveness of interventions to reduce suicide and suicide-related behaviours among people in contact with the criminal justice system. Methods: We searched Embase, PsycINFO, MEDLINE, and grey literature databases for articles published between 1 January 2000 and 1 June 2021. The protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020185989). Findings: Thirty-eight studies (36 primary research articles, two grey literature reports) met our inclusion criteria, 23 of which were conducted in adult custodial settings in high-income, Western countries. Four studies were randomised controlled trials. Two-thirds of studies (n=26, 68%) were assessed as medium quality, 11 (29%) were assessed as high quality, and one (3%) was assessed as low quality. Most had considerable methodological limitations and very few interventions had been rigorously evaluated; as such, drawing robust conclusions about the efficacy of interventions was difficult. Interpretation: More high-quality evidence from criminal justice settings other than adult prisons, particularly from low- and middle-income countries, should be considered a priority for future research. Funding: This work was funded by the Australian government's National Suicide Prevention Taskforce. RB is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Emerging Leader Investigator Grant (EL2; GNT2008073). MW is supported by a NHMRC Postgraduate Scholarship (GNT1151103). SF was funded by the NIHR HTA Programme (HTA Project:16/159/09).

ObjectivesTo examine differences in recidivism rates between different prisons using two designs-between-individual and within-individual-to account for confounding factors.MethodsWe examined recidivism rates among 37,891 individuals released from 44 Swedish prisons in three security levels, and who were followed from 2006 to 2013. We used longitudinal data from nationwide registers, including all convictions from district courts. First, we applied a between-individual design (Cox proportional hazards regression), comparing reconviction rates between individuals released from prisons within the same security level, while adjusting for a range of individual-level covariates. Second, we applied a within-individual design (stratified Cox proportional hazards regression), comparing rates of reconviction within the same individuals, i.e., we compared rates after release from one prison to the rates in the same individual after release from another prison, thus adjusting for all time-invariant confounders within each individual (e.g. genetics and early environment). We also adjusted for a range of time-varying individual-level covariates.ResultsResults showed differences in the hazard of recidivism between different prisons in between-individual analyses, with hazards ranging from 1.22 (1.05-1.43) to 4.99 (2.44-10.21). Results from within-individual analyses, which further adjusted for all time-invariant confounders, showed minimal differences between prisons, with hazards ranging from 0.95 (0.87-1.05) to 1.05 (0.95-1.16). Only small differences were found when violent and non-violent crimes were analyzed separately.ConclusionsThe study highlights the importance of research designs that more fully adjust for individual-level confounding factors to avoid over-interpretation of the variability in comparisons across prisons.

BackgroundPersons with noncommunicable diseases have elevated rates of premature mortality. The contribution of psychiatric comorbidity to this is uncertain. We aimed to determine the risks of premature mortality and suicide in people with common noncommunicable diseases, with and without psychiatric disorder comorbidity.Methods and findingsWe used nationwide registries to study all individuals born in Sweden between 1932 and 1995 with inpatient and outpatient diagnoses of chronic respiratory diseases (n = 249,825), cardiovascular diseases (n = 568,818), and diabetes (n = 255,579) for risks of premature mortality (≤age 65 years) and suicide until 31 December 2013. Patients diagnosed with either chronic respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, or diabetes were compared with age and sex-matched population controls (n = 10,345,758) and unaffected biological full siblings (n = 1,119,543). Comorbidity with any psychiatric disorder, and by major psychiatric categories, was examined using diagnoses from patient registers. Associations were quantified using stratified Cox regression models that accounted for time at risk, measured sociodemographic factors, and unmeasured familial confounders via sibling comparisons. Within 5 years of diagnosis, at least 7% (range 7.4% to 10.8%; P < 0.001) of patients with respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, or diabetes (median age at diagnosis: 48 to 54 years) had died from any cause, and 0.3% (0.3% to 0.3%; P < 0.001) had died from suicide, 25% to 32% of people with these medical conditions had co-occurring lifetime diagnoses of any psychiatric disorder, most of which antedated the medical diagnosis. Comorbid psychiatric disorders were associated with higher all-cause mortality (15.4% to 21.1%) when compared to those without such conditions (5.5% to 9.1%). Suicide mortality was also elevated (1.2% to 1.6% in comorbid patients versus 0.1% to 0.1% without comorbidity). When we compared relative risks with siblings without noncommunicable diseases and psychiatric disorders, the comorbidity with any psychiatric disorder was associated with substantially increased mortality rates (adjusted HR range: aHRCR = 7.2 [95% CI: 6.8 to 7.7; P < 0.001] to aHRCV = 8.9 [95% CI: 8.5 to 9.4; P < 0.001]). Notably, comorbid substance use disorders were associated with a higher mortality rate (aHR range: aHRCR = 8.3 [95% CI: 7.6 to 9.1; P < 0.001] to aHRCV = 9.9 [95% CI: 9.3 to 10.6; P < 0.001]) than depression (aHR range: aHRCR = 5.3 [95% CI: 4.7 to 5.9; P < 0.001] to aHRCV = 7.4 [95% CI: 7.0 to 7.9; P < 0.001]), but risks of suicide were similar for these 2 psychiatric comorbidities. One limitation is that we relied on secondary care data to assess psychiatric comorbidities, which may have led to missing some patients with less severe comorbidities. Residual genetic confounding is another limitation, given that biological full siblings share an average of half of their cosegregating genes. However, the reported associations remained large even after adjustment for shared and unmeasured familial confounders.ConclusionsIn this longitudinal study of over 1 million patients with chronic health diseases, we observed increased risks of all-cause and suicide mortality in individuals with psychiatric comorbidities. Improving assessment, treatment, and follow-up of people with comorbid psychiatric disorders may reduce the risk of mortality in people with chronic noncommunicable diseases.

Abstract Background There has been a rapid growth in the publication of new prediction models relevant to child and adolescent mental health. However, before their implementation into clinical services, it is necessary to appraise the quality of their methods and reporting. We conducted a systematic review of new prediction models in child and adolescent mental health, and examined their development and validation. Method We searched five databases for studies developing or validating multivariable prediction models for individuals aged 18 years old or younger from 1 January 2018 to 18 February 2021. Quality of reporting was assessed using the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction models for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis checklist, and quality of methodology using items based on expert guidance and the PROBAST tool. Results We identified 100 eligible studies: 41 developing a new prediction model, 48 validating an existing model and 11 that included both development and validation. Most publications (k = 75) reported a model discrimination measure, while 26 investigations reported calibration. Of 52 new prediction models, six (12%) were for suicidal outcomes, 18 (35%) for future diagnosis, five (10%) for child maltreatment. Other outcomes included violence, crime, and functional outcomes. Eleven new models (21%) were developed for use in high‐risk populations. Of development studies, around a third were sufficiently statistically powered (k = 16%, 31%), while this was lower for validation investigations (k = 12, 25%). In terms of performance, the discrimination (as measured by the C‐statistic) for new models ranged from 0.57 for a tool predicting ADHD diagnosis in an external validation sample to 0.99 for a machine learning model predicting foster care permanency. Conclusions Although some tools have recently been developed for child and adolescent mental health for prognosis and child maltreatment, none can be currently recommended for clinical practice due to a combination of methodological limitations and poor model performance. New work needs to use ensure sufficient sample sizes, representative samples, and testing of model calibration.

BackgroundHomelessness continues to be a pressing public health concern in many countries, and mental disorders in homeless persons contribute to their high rates of morbidity and mortality. Many primary studies have estimated prevalence rates for mental disorders in homeless individuals. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on the prevalence of any mental disorder and major psychiatric diagnoses in clearly defined homeless populations in any high-income country.Methods and findingsWe systematically searched for observational studies that estimated prevalence rates of mental disorders in samples of homeless individuals, using Medline, Embase, PsycInfo, and Google Scholar. We updated a previous systematic review and meta-analysis conducted in 2007, and searched until 1 April 2021. Studies were included if they sampled exclusively homeless persons, diagnosed mental disorders by standardized criteria using validated methods, provided point or up to 12-month prevalence rates, and were conducted in high-income countries. We identified 39 publications with a total of 8,049 participants. Study quality was assessed using the JBI critical appraisal tool for prevalence studies and a risk of bias tool. Random effects meta-analyses of prevalence rates were conducted, and heterogeneity was assessed by meta-regression analyses. The mean prevalence of any current mental disorder was estimated at 76.2% (95% CI 64.0% to 86.6%). The most common diagnostic categories were alcohol use disorders, at 36.7% (95% CI 27.7% to 46.2%), and drug use disorders, at 21.7% (95% CI 13.1% to 31.7%), followed by schizophrenia spectrum disorders (12.4% [95% CI 9.5% to 15.7%]) and major depression (12.6% [95% CI 8.0% to 18.2%]). We found substantial heterogeneity in prevalence rates between studies, which was partially explained by sampling method, study location, and the sex distribution of participants. Limitations included lack of information on certain subpopulations (e.g., women and immigrants) and unmet healthcare needs.ConclusionsPublic health and policy interventions to improve the health of homeless persons should consider the pattern and extent of psychiatric morbidity. Our findings suggest that the burden of psychiatric morbidity in homeless persons is substantial, and should lead to regular reviews of how healthcare services assess, treat, and follow up homeless people. The high burden of substance use disorders and schizophrenia spectrum disorders need particular attention in service development. This systematic review and meta-analysis has been registered with PROSPERO (CRD42018085216).Trial registrationPROSPERO CRD42018085216.

Introduction There is a wealth of data contained within healthcare and criminal justice system (CJS) datasets that, if successfully linked, could provide more information about this population, particularly those offenders who die in non-custodial CJS settings where, comparatively, much less is known. Objectives This study aims to determine feasibility of conducting data linkage across key criminal justice datasets and outline the processes, methodological considerations and any other implications of setting up such a linkage. Method Five CJS datasets were identified for potential inclusion for linkage with Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality data. Respective data teams were contacted, and scoping discussions were held via email, telephone contact and in person. Information was sought on available data, quality and completeness, unique identifiers, processes for record matching, cost implications, estimated timescales, required approvals, data security considerations and quality of data. Results All five datasets were deemed important to include and responses from data teams suggest that the proposed linkage is both feasible and valuable, within a reasonable timeframe and with minimal associated costs. The discovery of an additional `spine' dataset provides a more effective method of record matching by linking police identifiers to unique prison and probation identifiers. Conclusions The proposed linkage could highlight key points across the criminal justice system at which to target suicide prevention strategies. A more comprehensive linkage, including healthcare services, would further extend the opportunity to target interventions.

Summary: Background: Rates of suicide among people in prison are elevated compared with people of similar age and sex who are living in the community. Improving assessments and interventions to reduce suicide risk requires updated evidence on risk factors. We aimed to examine risk factors associated with suicide in prisoners. Methods: We did an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of risk factors for suicide among people in prison. We searched five biblographic databases for articles published between Jan 1, 2006, and Aug 13, 2020, and one database for articles published between Jan 1, 1973, and Aug 13, 2020. Eligible studies reported risk factors in individuals who died by suicide while in prison and in controls from the general prison population. Two reviewers independently extracted data for each study using a standardised form. We calculated random-effects pooled odds ratios (ORs) for the association of suicide with demographical, clinical, criminological, and institutional risk factors, and investigated heterogeneity using subgroup and meta-regression analyses. This systematic review is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020137979. Findings: We identified 8041 records through our searches, and used 77 eligible studies from 27 countries, including 35 351 suicides, in the main analysis. The strongest clinical factors associated with suicide were suicidal ideation during the current period in prison (OR 15·2, 95% CI 8·5–27·0), a history of attempted suicide (OR 8·2, 4·4–15·3), and current psychiatric diagnosis (OR 6·4, 3·6–11·1). Institutional factors associated with suicide included occupation of a single cell (OR 6·8, 2·3–19·8) and having no social visits (OR 1·9, 1·5–2·4). Criminological factors included remand status (OR 3·6, 3·1–4·1), serving a life sentence (OR 2·4, 1·3–4·6), and being convicted of a violent offence, in particular homicide (OR 3·1, 2·2–4·2). Interpretation: Several modifiable risk factors, such as psychiatric diagnosis, suicidal ideation during the current period in prison, and single-cell occupancy, are associated with suicide among people in prison. Preventive interventions should target these risk factors and include improved access to evidence-based mental health care. Understanding other factors associated with suicide might improve risk stratification and resource allocation in prison services. Funding: Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research Applied Research Collaboration Oxford and Thames Valley.

BackgroundSuicide is a leading cause of death in China and accounts for about one-sixth of all suicides worldwide. The objective of this study was to examine the recent distribution of suicide and risk factors for death by suicide. Identifying underlying risk factors could benefit development of evidence-based prevention and intervention programs.Methods and findingsWe conducted a prospective study, the China Kadoorie Biobank, of 512,715 individuals (41% men, mean age 52 years) from 10 (5 urban, 5 rural) areas which are diverse across China in geographic locations, social economic developmental stages, and prevalence of disease patterns. After the baseline measurements of risk factors during 2004 to 2008, participants were followed up for suicide outcomes including suicide and possible suicide deaths. Risk factors, such as sociodemographic factors and physical and mental health status, were assessed by semistructured interviews and self-report questionnaires. Suicide and possible suicide deaths were identified through linkage to the local death registries using ICD-10 codes. We conducted Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for suicide and for possible suicide in sensitivity analyses. During an average follow-up period of 9.9 years, 520 (101 per 100,000) people died from suicide (51.3% male), and 79.8% of them lived in rural areas. Sociodemographic factors associated with increased suicide risk were male gender (adjusted hazard ratios [aHR] = 1.6 [95% CI 1.4 to 2.0], p < 0.001), older age (1.3 [1.2 to 1.5] by each 10-yr increase, p < 0.001), rural residence (2.6 [2.1 to 3.3], p < 0.001), and single status (1.7 [1.4 to 2.2], p < 0.001). Increased hazards were found for family-related stressful life events (aHR = 1.8 [1.2 to 1.9], p < 0.001) and for major physical illnesses (1.5 [1.3 to 1.9], p < 0.001). There were strong associations of suicide with a history of lifetime mental disorders (aHR = 9.6 [5.9 to 15.6], p < 0.001) and lifetime schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (11.0 [7.1 to 17.0], p < 0.001). Links between suicide risk and depressive disorders (aHR = 2.6 [1.4 to 4.8], p = 0.002) and generalized anxiety disorders (2.6 [1.0 to 7.1], p = 0.056) in the last 12 months, and sleep disorders (1.4 [1.2 to 1.7], p < 0.001) in the past month were also found. All HRs were adjusted for sociodemographic factors including gender, age, residence, single status, education, and income. The associations with possible suicide deaths were mostly similar to those with suicide deaths, although there was no clear link between possible suicide deaths and psychiatric factors such as depression and generalized anxiety disorders. A limitation of the study is that there is likely underreporting of mental disorders due to the use of self-report information for some diagnostic categories.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that a range of sociodemographic, lifestyle, stressful life events, physical, and mental health factors were associated with suicide in China. High-risk groups identified were elderly men in rural settings and individuals with mental disorders. These findings could form the basis of targeted approaches to reduce suicide mortality in China.

Abstract Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a major threat to the public. However, the comprehensive profile of suicidal ideation among the general population has not been systematically investigated in a large sample in the age of COVID-19. Methods A national online cross-sectional survey was conducted between February 28, 2020 and March 11, 2020 in a representative sample of Chinese adults aged 18 years and older. Suicidal ideation was assessed using item 9 of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9. The prevalence of suicidal ideation and its risk factors was evaluated. Results A total of 56,679 participants (27,149 males and 29,530 females) were included. The overall prevalence of suicidal ideation was 16.4%, including 10.9% seldom, 4.1% often, and 1.4% always suicidal ideation. The prevalence of suicidal ideation was higher in males (19.1%) and individuals aged 18–24 years (24.7%) than in females (14.0%) and those aged 45 years and older (11.9%). Suicidal ideation was more prevalent in individuals with suspected or confirmed infection (63.0%), frontline workers (19.2%), and people with pre-existing mental disorders (41.6%). Experience of quarantine, unemployed, and increased psychological stress during the pandemic were associated with an increased risk of suicidal ideation and its severity. However, paying more attention to and gaining a better understanding of COVID-19-related knowledge, especially information about psychological interventions, could reduce the risk. Conclusions The estimated prevalence of suicidal ideation among the general population in China during COVID-19 was significant. The findings will be important for improving suicide prevention strategies during COVID-19.

AbstractBackgroundOutcome measurement in forensic mental health services can support service improvement, research, and patient progress evaluation. This systematic review aims to identify instruments available for use as outcome measures in this field and assess the evidence for the most common instruments, specific to the forensic context, which cover multiple outcome domains.MethodsStudies were identified by searching seven online databases. Additional searches were then performed for 10 selected instruments to identify additional information on their psychometric properties. Instrument manuals and gray literature was reviewed for information about instrument development and content validity. The quality of evidence for psychometric properties was summarized for each instrument based on the COnsensus-based Standards for health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) approach.ResultsA total of 435 different instruments or variants were identified. Psychometric information on the 10 selected instruments was extracted from 103 studies. All 10 instruments had a clinician reported component with only two having patient reported scales. Half of the instruments were primarily focused on risk. No instrument demonstrated adequate psychometric properties in all eight COSMIN categories assessed. Only one instrument, the Camberwell Assessment of Need: Forensic Version, had adequate evidence for its development and content validity. The most evidence was for construct validity, while none was identified for construct stability between groups.ConclusionsDespite the large number of instruments potentially available, evidence for their use as outcome measures in forensic mental health services is limited. Future research and instrument development should involve patients and carers to ensure adequate content validity.

Introduction There are conflicting perspectives as to whether antidepressant medication increases, decreases or has no effect on violence perpetration, impulsivity and aggressive behaviour. This is an important question given the widespread use of antidepressant medication and the significant medical, social, legal and health consequences of violence. We aim to: (1) systematically identify observational studies and randomised controlled trials that quantify the relationship between antidepressant use and interpersonal violence; (2) assess the quality of studies that quantify the relationship between antidepressant use and interpersonal violence and (3) estimate the pooled prevalence and measure of effect for the relationship between antidepressant use and interpersonal violence.Methods and analysis We will search MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, PubMed and the Cochrane Library for relevant peer-reviewed literature. Our primary outcome is the perpetration of violent acts directed at others. Our secondary outcome is physical, interpersonal aggression measured through validated surveys. We will include randomised controlled trials, cohort studies and case–control studies that examine the association between the use of antidepressants and violence perpetration and/or physical aggression. No restrictions will be placed on the population. We will use the Methodological Standard for Epidemiological Research scale to assess the quality of included studies. We will provide an overview of the included studies and assess heterogeneity and publication bias. If there are sufficient studies, we will conduct meta-analyses to examine the possible association between antidepressants and violence, and undertake meta-regression to examine the effect of antidepressant class, length of follow-up, age of participants and population subgroups on the association between antidepressants and violence.Ethics and dissemination No ethics approval is required. Our findings will be disseminated through a peer-reviewed journal article and conference presentations.PROSPERO registration details CRD42020175474.

Background Little is known about the trend and predictors of 21-year mortality and suicide patterns in persons with schizophrenia. Aims To explore the trend and predictors of 21-year mortality and suicide in persons with schizophrenia in rural China. Method This longitudinal follow-up study included 510 persons with schizophrenia who were identified in a mental health survey of individuals (≥15 years old) in 1994 in six townships of Xinjin County, Chengdu, China, and followed up in three waves until 2015. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox hazard regressions were conducted. Results Of the 510 participants, 196 died (38.4% mortality) between 1994 and 2015; 13.8% of the deaths (n = 27) were due to suicide. Life expectancy was lower for men than for women (50.6 v. 58.5 years). Males consistently showed higher rates of mortality and suicide than females. Older participants had higher mortality (hazard ratio HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05) but lower suicide rates (HR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.93–0.98) than their younger counterparts. Poor family attitudes were associated with all-cause mortality and death due to other causes; no previous hospital admission and a history of suicide attempts independently predicted death by suicide. Conclusions Our findings suggest there is a high mortality and suicide rate in persons with schizophrenia in rural China, with different predictive factors for mortality and suicide. It is important to develop culture-specific, demographically tailored and community-based mental healthcare and to strengthen family intervention to improve the long-term outcome of persons with schizophrenia.

Background There are reports of outbreaks of COVID-19 in prisons in many countries. Responses to date have been highly variable and it is not clear whether public health guidance has been informed by the best available evidence. We conducted a systematic review to synthesise the evidence on outbreaks of highly contagious diseases in prison.Methods We searched seven electronic databases for peer-reviewed articles and official reports published between 1 January 2000 and 28 July 2020. We included quantitative primary research that reported an outbreak of a given contagious disease in a correctional facility and examined the effects of interventions. We excluded studies that did not provide detail on interventions. We synthesised common themes using the Synthesis Without Meta-analysis (SWiM) guideline, identified gaps in the literature and critically appraised the effectiveness of various containment approaches.Results We identified 28 relevant studies. Investigations were all based in high-income countries and documented outbreaks of tuberculosis, influenza (types A and B), varicella, measles, mumps, adenovirus and COVID-19. Several themes were common to these reports, including the public health implications of infectious disease outbreaks in prison, and the role of interagency collaboration, health communication, screening for contagious diseases, restriction, isolation and quarantine, contact tracing, immunisation programmes, epidemiological surveillance and prison-specific guidelines in addressing any outbreaks.Discussion Prisons are high-risk settings for the transmission of contagious diseases and there are considerable challenges in managing outbreaks in them. A public health approach to managing COVID-19 in prisons is required.PROSPERO registration number CRD42020178827

BackgroundSuicide is a major public health concern globally. Accurately predicting suicidal behavior remains challenging. This study aimed to use machine learning approaches to examine the potential of the Swedish national registry data for prediction of suicidal behavior.Methods and findingsThe study sample consisted of 541,300 inpatient and outpatient visits by 126,205 Sweden-born patients (54% female and 46% male) aged 18 to 39 (mean age at the visit: 27.3) years to psychiatric specialty care in Sweden between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2012. The most common psychiatric diagnoses at the visit were anxiety disorders (20.0%), major depressive disorder (16.9%), and substance use disorders (13.6%). A total of 425 candidate predictors covering demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status (SES), electronic medical records, criminality, as well as family history of disease and crime were extracted from the Swedish registry data. The sample was randomly split into an 80% training set containing 433,024 visits and a 20% test set containing 108,276 visits. Models were trained separately for suicide attempt/death within 90 and 30 days following a visit using multiple machine learning algorithms. Model discrimination and calibration were both evaluated. Among all eligible visits, 3.5% (18,682) were followed by a suicide attempt/death within 90 days and 1.7% (9,099) within 30 days. The final models were based on ensemble learning that combined predictions from elastic net penalized logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting, and a neural network. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs) on the test set were 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.87-0.89) and 0.89 (95% CI = 0.88-0.90) for the outcome within 90 days and 30 days, respectively, both being significantly better than chance (i.e., AUC = 0.50) (p < 0.01). Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were reported at different risk thresholds. A limitation of our study is that our models have not yet been externally validated, and thus, the generalizability of the models to other populations remains unknown.ConclusionsBy combining the ensemble method of multiple machine learning algorithms and high-quality data solely from the Swedish registers, we developed prognostic models to predict short-term suicide attempt/death with good discrimination and calibration. Whether novel predictors can improve predictive performance requires further investigation.

Background: Comparing recidivism rates between countries may provide useful information about the relative effectiveness of different criminal justice policies. A previous 2015 review identified criminal recidivism data for 18 countries and found little consistency in outcome definitions and time periods. We aimed to update recidivism rates in prisoners internationally. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of criminal recidivism rates in prisoners and followed PRISMA guidelines. Using five bibliographic indexes, we carried out non-country-specific and targeted searches for 50 countries with the largest total prison populations. We included reports and studies of released prisoners that reported re-arrest, reconviction and reincarceration rates. Meta-analysis was not possible due to multiple sources of heterogeneity. Results: We identified criminal recidivism information for 23 countries. Of the 50 countries with the largest prison populations, 10 reported recidivism rates for prisoners. The most commonly reported outcome was the 2-year reconviction rate. We were able to examine reconviction between different time periods for 11 countries and found that most reported small changes in official recidivism rates. Overall, for 2-year follow-up period, reported re-arrest rates were between 26% and 60%, reconviction rates ranged from 20% to 63%, and reimprisonment rates varied from 14 to 45%. Conclusions: Although some countries have made efforts to improve reporting, recidivism rates are not comparable between countries. Criminal justice agencies should consider using reporting guidelines described here to update their data.

Background: People aged ≥ 50 years constitute the fastest-growing group in the prison population of England and Wales. This population has complex health and social care needs. There is currently no national strategy to guide the development of the many-faceted services required for this vulnerable population; therefore, prisons are responding to the issue with a range of local initiatives that are untested and often susceptible to failure if they are not fully embedded in and securely funded as part of commissioned services. Objectives: The objectives were to establish the prevalence of dementia and mild cognitive impairment in prisoners in England and Wales and their health and social care needs; validate the six-item cognitive impairment test for routine use in prisons to aid early and consistent identification of older prisoners with possible dementia or mild cognitive impairment; identify gaps in current service provision; understand the first-hand experiences of prisoners living with dementia and mild cognitive impairment; develop a care pathway for prisoners with dementia and mild cognitive impairment; develop dementia and mild cognitive impairment training packages for staff and prisoners; and produce health economic costings for the care pathway and training packages. Design: This was a mixed-methods study. Setting: The study setting was prisons in England and Wales. Participants: Prisoners aged ≥ 50 years and multiagency staff working in prison discipline and health and social care services took part. Results: Quantitative research estimated that the prevalence rate of suspected dementia and mild cognitive impairment in the prison population of England and Wales is 8%. This equates to 1090 individuals. Only two people (3%) in our sample had a relevant diagnosis in their health-care notes, suggesting current under-recognition of these conditions. The prevalence rate in prisons was approximately two times higher among individuals aged 60–69 years and four times higher among those aged ≥ 70 years than among those in the same age groups living in the community. The Montreal Cognitive Assessment screening test was found to be more effective than the six-item cognitive impairment test assessment in the older prisoner population. Qualitative research determined that staff and prisoners lacked training in knowledge and awareness of dementia and mild cognitive impairment, and this leads to problematic behaviour being viewed as a disciplinary issue rather than a health issue. Local initiatives to improve the lives of prisoners with dementia and mild cognitive impairment are often disadvantaged by not being part of commissioned services, making them difficult to sustain. Multidisciplinary working is hampered by agencies continuing to work in silos, with inadequate communication across professional boundaries. A step-by-step care pathway for prisoners with dementia and mild cognitive impairment was developed, and two tiers of training materials were produced for staff and prisoners. Limitations: Our prevalence rate was based on the results of a standardised assessment tool, rather than on clinical diagnosis by a mental health professional, and therefore it may represent an overestimation. Furthermore, we were unable to distinguish subcategories of dementia. We were also unable to distinguish between a likely diagnosis of dementia and other conditions presenting with mild cognitive impairment, including learning disability, severe depression and hearing impairment. Questionnaires regarding current service provision were collected over an extended period of time, so they do not reflect a ‘snapshot’ of service provision at a particular point. Conclusions: We hypothesise that implementing the step-by-step care pathway and the training resources developed in this study will improve the care of older prisoners with dementia and mild cognitive impairment. Future work: The care pathway and training materials should be evaluated in situ. Alternatives to prison for those with dementia or mild cognitive impairment should be developed and evaluated. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 8, No. 27. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

BackgroundOxford Mental Illness and Suicide tool (OxMIS) is a brief, scalable, freely available, structured risk assessment tool to assess suicide risk in patients with severe mental illness (schizophrenia-spectrum disorders or bipolar disorder). OxMIS requires further external validation, but a lack of large-scale cohorts with relevant variables makes this challenging. Electronic health records provide possible data sources for external validation of risk prediction tools. However, they contain large amounts of information within free-text that is not readily extractable. In this study, we examined the feasibility of identifying suicide predictors needed to validate OxMIS in routinely collected electronic health records.MethodsIn study 1, we manually reviewed electronic health records of 57 patients with severe mental illness to calculate OxMIS risk scores. In study 2, we examined the feasibility of using natural language processing to scale up this process. We used anonymized free-text documents from the Clinical Record Interactive Search database to train a named entity recognition model, a machine learning technique which recognizes concepts in free-text. The model identified eight concepts relevant for suicide risk assessment: medication (antidepressant/antipsychotic treatment), violence, education, self-harm, benefits receipt, drug/alcohol use disorder, suicide, and psychiatric admission. We assessed model performance in terms of precision (similar to positive predictive value), recall (similar to sensitivity) and F1 statistic (an overall performance measure).ResultsIn study 1, we estimated suicide risk for all patients using the OxMIS calculator, giving a range of 12 month risk estimates from 0.1-3.4%. For 13 out of 17 predictors, there was no missing information in electronic health records. For the remaining 4 predictors missingness ranged from 7-26%; to account for these missing variables, it was possible for OxMIS to estimate suicide risk using a range of scores. In study 2, the named entity recognition model had an overall precision of 0.77, recall of 0.90 and F1 score of 0.83. The concept with the best precision and recall was medication (precision 0.84, recall 0.96) and the weakest were suicide (precision 0.37), and drug/alcohol use disorder (recall 0.61).ConclusionsIt is feasible to estimate suicide risk with the OxMIS tool using predictors identified in routine clinical records. Predictors could be extracted using natural language processing. However, electronic health records differ from other data sources, particularly for family history variables, which creates methodological challenges.

Background: The excess risk of violence in psychotic disorders may partly be explained by impairments in executive functions (EFs) and theory of mind (ToM). However, previous studies have been limited by composite measures of EFs and small samples of inpatients. Methods: Data were collected for the research project Genetic Risk and Outcome of Psychosis (GROUP). Patients with psychotic disorders (N = 891) were recruited from various care settings in the Netherlands. The following neuropsychological tests were administered (targeted cognitive function in parentheses): (i) Continuous Performance Test-HQ (inhibition); (ii) Response Shifting Task (cognitive flexibility); (iii) Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, Third Edition (WAIS-III) Block Design subtest (fluid intelligence); (iv) Neuropsychological Assessment Battery (NAB) Mazes Test (planning); (v) Degraded Facial Affect Recognition Task (affective ToM); and (vi) Hinting Task (cognitive ToM). Lifetime violence was ascertained from medical records and patient interviews. We used analysis of covariance to compare the mean scores of violent and nonviolent patients on each test, adjusting for age and sex. Results: Violent patients performed significantly worse than nonviolent patients on the WAIS-III Block Design subtest (F [1, 847] = 5.12, p = .024), NAB Mazes Test (F [1, 499] = 5.32, p = .022) and Hinting Task (F [1, 839] = 9.38, p = .002). For the other tests, the between-group differences were nonsignificant. Violent behavior explained no more than 1% of the variance in performance on each test. Conclusion: Impairments in EFs and ToM are unlikely to provide useful targets for risk assessment and interventions. Keywords: Schizophrenia, Psychosis, Executive functions, Theory of mind, Aggression, Violence

Summary: Adolescents detained within the criminal justice system are affected by complex health problems, health-risk behaviours, and high rates of premature death. We did a global synthesis of the evidence regarding the health of this population. We searched Embase, PsycINFO, Education Resources Information Center, PubMed, Web of Science, CINCH, Global Health, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the Campbell Library, the National Criminal Justice Reference System Abstract Database, and Google Scholar for peer-reviewed journal articles, including reviews, that reported the prevalence of at least one health outcome (physical, mental, sexual, infectious, and neurocognitive) in adolescents (aged

Summary: Background: Calls for increased funding for mental health services require many lines of evidence in support, including estimates of economic impact. One understudied source of cost is violence perpetrated by individuals with severe mental illness. Estimating this economic impact can inform budget planning across several government sectors and emphasise the importance of violence prevention. Therefore, we aimed to provide a comprehensive estimate of the economic costs of violence perpetrated by people with severe mental illness. Methods: For this retrospective analysis, we used a prevalence-based modelling approach to estimate the annual economic cost of violent incidents committed by people with severe mental illness in England and Wales during 2015–16. The model was based on secondary data, including the association between violence and severe mental illness, illness prevalence, recidivism, absolute numbers of violent incidents in 2015–16, and costs to society per violent crime, by area of spending. Uncertainty was addressed with probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses that tested the effect of underreporting of domestic violence and distributions of crime types in individuals with severe mental illness. Outcomes: The estimated annual economic impact of violence perpetrated by people with severe mental illness was £2·5 (95% CI 1·4–4·5) billion in England and Wales in 2015–16, or 5·3% of the total estimated societal cost of violence. The largest contributors to the cost of violent crime perpetrated by individuals with severe mental illness were the cost of physical and emotional harm to victims (£1·4 [95% CI 0·8–2·5] billion), followed by lost productivity of victims (£348.0 [190·0–628·8] million), while the combined cost to the police and criminal justice system was £561·3 (305·9–1009·2) million and the cost to health services was £136·7 [74·3–246·3] million. The additional cost to secure forensic care was estimated to be £487·7 (302·0–709·1) million. Interpretation: The economic impact of violence perpetrated by individuals with severe mental illness is potentially important. Preventing violence, especially through services for individuals with comorbid substance misuse, and reducing recidivism might lead to cost savings at a governmental and individual level, in addition to the clinical and societal benefits. Funding: Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and NIHR Applied Research Collaboration Oxford and Thames Valley.

Introduction More than 30 million adults are released from incarceration globally each year. Many experience complex physical and mental health problems, and are at markedly increased risk of preventable mortality. Despite this, evidence regarding the global epidemiology of mortality following release from incarceration is insufficient to inform the development of targeted, evidence-based responses. Many previous studies have suffered from inadequate power and poor precision, and even large studies have limited capacity to disaggregate data by specific causes of death, sub-populations or time since release to answer questions of clinical and public health relevance. Objectives To comprehensively document the incidence, timing, causes and risk factors for mortality in adults released from prison. Methods We created the Mortality After Release from Incarceration Consortium (MARIC), a multi-disciplinary collaboration representing 29 cohorts of adults who have experienced incarceration from 11 countries. Findings across cohorts will be analysed using a two-step, individual participant data meta-analysis methodology. Results The combined sample includes 1,337,993 individuals (89% male), with 75,795 deaths recorded over 9,191,393 person-years of follow-up. Conclusions The consortium represents an important advancement in the field, bringing international attention to this problem. It will provide internationally relevant evidence to guide policymakers and clinicians in reducing preventable deaths in this marginalized population. Key words Mortality; incarceration; prison; release; individual participant data meta-analysis; consortium; cohort.

AbstractBackground.Self-harm is common in prisoners. There is an association between self-harm in prisoners and subsequent suicide, both within prison and on release. The aim of this study is to develop and evaluate a prediction model to identify male prisoners at high risk of self-harm.Methods.We developed an 11-item screening model, based on risk factors identified from the literature. This screen was administered to 542 prisoners within 7 days of arrival in two male prisons in England. Participants were followed up for 6 months to identify those who subsequently self-harmed in prison. Analysis was conducted using Cox proportional hazard regression. Discrimination and calibration were determined for the model. The model was subsequently optimized using multivariable analysis, weighting variables, and dropping poorly performing items.Results.Seventeen (3.1%) of the participants self-harmed during follow up (median 53 days). The strongest risk factors were previous self-harm in prison (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 9.3 [95% CI: 3.3–16.6]) and current suicidal ideation (aHR = 7.6 [2.1–27.4]). As a continuous score, a one-point increase in the suicide screen was significantly associated with self-harm (HR = 1.4, 1.1–1.7). At the prespecified cut off score of 5, the screening model was associated with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.66 (0.53–0.79), with poor calibration. The optimized model saw two items dropped from the original screening tool, weighting of risk factors based on a multivariable model, and an AUC of 0.84 (0.76–0.92).Conclusions.Further work is necessary to clarify the association between risk factors and self-harm in prison. Despite good face validity, current screening tools for self-harm need validation in new prison samples.

BackgroundIntimate partner violence (IPV) against women is associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes. Although mental disorders have been linked to an increased risk of perpetrating IPV against women, the direction and magnitude of the association remain uncertain. In a longitudinal design, we examined the association between mental disorders and IPV perpetrated by men towards women in a population-based sample and used sibling comparisons to control for factors shared by siblings, such as genetic and early family environmental factors.Methods and findingsUsing Swedish nationwide registries, we identified men from 9 diagnostic groups over 1998-2013, with sample sizes ranging from 9,529 with autism to 88,182 with depressive disorder. We matched individuals by age and sex to general population controls (ranging from 186,017 to 1,719,318 controls), and calculated the hazard ratios of IPV against women. We also estimated the hazard ratios of IPV against women in unaffected full siblings (ranging from 4,818 to 37,885 individuals) compared with the population controls. Afterwards, we compared the hazard ratios for individuals with psychiatric diagnoses with those for siblings using the ratio of hazard ratios (RHR). In sensitivity analyses, we examined the contribution of previous IPV against women and common psychiatric comorbidities, substance use disorders and personality disorders. The average follow-up time across diagnoses ranged from 3.4 to 4.8 years. In comparison to general population controls, all psychiatric diagnoses studied except autism were associated with an increased risk of IPV against women in men, with hazard ratios ranging from 1.5 (95% CI 1.3-1.7) to 7.7 (7.2-8.3) (p-values < 0.001). In sibling analyses, we found that men with depressive disorder, anxiety disorder, alcohol use disorder, drug use disorder, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, and personality disorders had a higher risk of IPV against women than their unaffected siblings, with RHR values ranging from 1.7 (1.3-2.1) to 4.4 (3.7-5.2) (p-values < 0.001). Sensitivity analyses showed higher risk of IPV against women in men when comorbid substance use disorders and personality disorders were present, compared to risk when these comorbidities were absent. In addition, increased IPV risk was also found in those without previous IPV against women. The absolute rates of IPV against women ranged from 0.1% to 2.1% across diagnoses over 3.4 to 4.8 years. Individuals with alcohol use disorders (1.7%, 1,406/82,731) and drug use disorders (2.1%, 1,216/57,901) had the highest rates. Our analyses were restricted to IPV leading to arrest, suggesting that the applicability of our results may be limited to more severe forms of IPV perpetration.ConclusionsOur results indicate that most of the studied mental disorders are associated with an increased risk of perpetrating IPV towards women, and that substance use disorders, as principal or comorbid diagnoses, have the highest absolute and relative risks. The findings support the development of IPV risk identification and prevention services among men with substance use disorders as an approach to reduce the prevalence of IPV.

Background: Risk assessment informs decisions around admission to and discharge from secure psychiatric hospital and contributes to treatment and supervision. There are advantages to using brief, scalable, free online tools with similar accuracy to instruments currently used. We undertook a study of one such risk assessment, the Forensic Psychiatry and Violence Oxford (FoVOx) tool, examining its acceptability, feasibility, and practicality.Methods: We completed the FoVOx tool on all discharges from six secure psychiatric hospitals in one region in England over two years. We interviewed 11 senior forensic psychiatrists regarding each discharge using a standardized questionnaire. Their patient’s FoVOx score was compared to clinical risk assessment, and the senior clinicians were asked if they considered FoVOx scores accurate and useful. A modified thematic analysis was conducted, and clinicians were surveyed about current risk assessment practice on discharge.Results: Of 90 consecutive discharges, 84 were included in the final analysis. The median FoVOx probability score was 11% risk of violent recidivism in two years after discharge. We estimated that 12 (14%) individuals reoffended since discharge; all were in the medium or high risk FoVOx categories. Clinical assessment of risk agreed with the FoVOx categories in around half the cases. Clinicians were more likely to provide lower risk categories compared with FoVOx ones. FoVOx was considered to be an accurate representation of risk in 67% of cases; clinicians revised their view on some patient’s risk assessment after being informed of their FoVOx scores. Completing FoVOx was reported to be helpful in the majority of cases. Reasons included improved communication with other agencies, reassurance to clinical teams, and identifying additional factors not fully considered. 10 of the 11 respondents reported that FoVOx was practical, and seven of 11 reported that they would use it in the future, highlighting its brevity and speed of use compared to existing risk assessment tools.Conclusions: Senior clinicians in this regional forensic psychiatric service found the FoVOx risk assessment tool feasible, practical, and easy to use. Its use addressed a lack of consistency around risk assessment at the point of discharge and, if used routinely, could assist in clinical decision-making.

Abstract Background In 2008, the Mental Health Act (MHA) 2007 amendments to the MHA 1983 were implemented in England and Wales. The amendments were intended to remove perceived obstacles to the detention of high risk patients with personality disorders (PDs), sexual deviance and learning disabilities (LDs). The AMEND study aimed to test the hypothesis that the implementation of these changes would lead to an increase in numbers or proportions of patients with these conditions who would be assessed and detained under the MHA 2007. Method A prospective, quantitative study of MHA assessments undertaken between July–October 2008–11 at three English sites. Data were collected from local forms used for MHA assessment documentation and patient electronic databases. Results The total number of assessments in each four month period of data collection varied: 1034 in 2008, 1042 in 2009, 1242 in 2010 and 1010 in 2011 (n = 4415). Of the assessments 65.6% resulted in detention in 2008, 71.3% in 2009, 64.7% in 2010 and 63.5% in 2011. There was no significant change in the odds ratio of detention when comparing the 2008 assessments against the combined 2009, 2010 and 2011 data (OR = 1.025, Fisher‘s exact Χ 2 p = 0.735). Only patients with LD and ‘any other disorder or disability of the mind’ were significantly more likely to be assessed under the MHA post implementation (Χ2 = 5.485, P = 0.018; Χ2 = 24.962, P > 0.001 respectively). There was no significant change post implementation in terms of the diagnostic category of detained patients. Conclusions In the first three years post implementation, the 2007 Act did not facilitate the compulsory care of patients with PDs, sexual deviance and LDs.

Background: Comparing recidivism rates between countries may provide useful information about the relative effectiveness of different criminal justice policies. A previous 2015 review identified criminal recidivism data for 18 countries and found little consistency in outcome definitions and time periods. We aimed to update recidivism rates in prisoners internationally. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of criminal recidivism rates in prisoners and followed PRISMA guidelines. Using five bibliographic indexes, we carried out non-country-specific and targeted searches for 50 countries with the largest total prison populations. We included reports and studies of released prisoners that reported re-arrest, reconviction and reincarceration rates. Meta-analysis was not possible due to multiple sources of heterogeneity. Results: We identified criminal recidivism information for 23 countries. Of the 50 countries with the largest prison populations, 10 reported recidivism rates for prisoners. The most commonly reported outcome was the 2-year reconviction rate. We were able to examine reconviction between different time periods for 11 countries and found that most reported small changes in official recidivism rates. Overall, for 2-year follow-up period, reported re-arrest rates were between 26% and 60%, reconviction rates ranged from 20% to 63%, and reimprisonment rates varied from 14 to 45%. Conclusions: Although some countries have made efforts to improve reporting, recidivism rates are not comparable between countries. Criminal justice agencies should consider using reporting guidelines described here to update their data.

Summary: Background: Although more than two thirds of the world's incarcerated individuals are based in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), the burden of psychiatric disorders in this population is not known. This review provides estimates for the prevalence of severe mental illness and substance use disorders in incarcerated individuals in LMICs. Methods: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched 17 electronic databases to identify prevalence studies of psychiatric disorders in prison populations in LMICs, published between January, 1987, and May, 2018. We included representative studies from general prison samples, providing information about four major psychiatric diagnoses: psychosis, major depression, alcohol use disorders, and drug use disorders. We pooled data from studies using random-effects meta-analyses and assessed the sources of heterogeneity by meta-regression. We extracted general population estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases 2016 database to calculate comparative prevalence ratios. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42015020905. Findings: We identified 23 publications reporting prevalence estimates of severe mental illness and substance use disorders for 14 527 prisoners from 13 LMICs. In this population, the estimated pooled 1 year prevalence rates for psychosis were 6·2% (95% CI 4·0–8·6), 16·0% (11·7–20·8) for major depression, 3·8% (1·2–7·6) for alcohol use disorders, and 5·1% (2·9–7·8) for drug use disorders. We noted increased prevalence at prison intake and geographic variations for substance use disorders. For alcohol use disorders, prevalence was higher in the southeast Asian region than in the eastern Mediterranean region; and drug use disorders were more prevalent in the eastern Mediterranean region than in Europe. Prevalence ratios indicated substantially higher rates of severe mental illness and substance use disorders among prisoners than in the general population (the prevalence of non-affective psychosis was on average 16 times higher, major depression and illicit drug use disorder prevalence were both six times higher, and prevalence of alcohol use disorders was double that of the general population). Interpretation: The prevalence of major psychiatric disorders is high in prisoners in LMIC compared with general populations. As these findings are likely to reflect unmet needs, the development of scalable interventions should be a public health priority in resource-poor settings. Funding: CONICYT of the Chilean government and the Wellcome Trust.