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Upper Devonian and Lower–Middle Mississippian strata of the North American midcontinent are ubiquitously fine-grained and silt-rich, comprising both so-called shale as well as argillaceous limestone (or calcareous siltstone) that accumulated in the Laurentian epeiric sea. Although long recognized as recording marine deposition, the origin and transport of the fine-grained siliciclastic material in these units remains enigmatic because they do not connect to any proximal deltaic feeder systems. Here, we present new data on grain size, whole-rock geochemistry, mineralogy, and U-Pb detrital-zircon geochronology from units across Oklahoma; we then integrate these data with models of surface wind circulation, refined paleogeographic reconstructions, and correlations from the greater midcontinent to test the hypothesis that wind transported the siliciclastic fraction to the marine system. The exclusively very fine silt to very fine sand grain size, clear detrital origin, widespread distribution over large regions of the epeiric sea, Appalachian sources, and paleogeographic setting in the subtropical arid belt far-removed from contemporaneous deltaic feeder systems are most consistent with eolian transport of dust lofted from subaerial delta plains of the greater Appalachian orogen and incorporated into subaqueous depositional systems. Delivery of dust that was minimally chemically weathered to Devono-Mississippian epeiric seas likely provided essential nutrients that stimulated organic productivity in these commonly organic-rich units.

The early Eocene greenhouse climate driven by high atmospheric CO2 concentrations serves as a testbed for future climate changes dominated by increasing CO2 forcing. Especially, the early Eocene Arctic region is important in light of future CO2-driven climate warming in the northern polar region. Here, we present early Eocene Arctic sea ice simulations carried out by coupled climate models within the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project. We find differences in sea ice responses to CO2 changes across the ensemble and compare the results with existing proxy-based sea ice reconstructions from the Arctic Ocean. Most of the models simulate winter sea ice presence at high CO2 levels (≥ 840 ppmv = 3x pre-industrial (PI) level of 280 ppmv). However, the threshold when sea ice permanently disappears from the ocean varies significantly between the models (from < 840 ppmv to > 1680 ppmv). Based on a one-dimensional energy balance model analysis we find that the greenhouse effect plays an important role in the inter-model spread in Arctic winter surface temperature changes in response to a CO2 rise from 1x to 3x the PI level. We link this greenhouse effect to increased atmospheric water vapour concentration. Furthermore, differences in simulated surface salinity in the Arctic Ocean play an important role in controlling local sea ice formation. These inter-model differences result from differences in the exchange of waters between a brackish Arctic and a more saline North Atlantic Ocean that are controlled by the width of the gateway between both basins. As there is no geological evidence for Arctic sea ice in the early Eocene, its presence in most of the simulations with 3x PI CO2 level indicates either a higher CO2 level and/or models miss important mechanism/feedback.

The total meridional heat transport (MHT) is relatively stable across different climates. Nevertheless, the strength of individual processes contributing to the total transport are not stable. Here we investigate the MHT and its main components especially in the atmosphere, in five coupled climate model simulations from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). These simulations target the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), a geological time period with high CO2 concentrations, analogous to the upper range of end-of-century CO2 projections. Preindustrial and early Eocene simulations at a range of CO2 levels (1x, 3x and 6x preindustrial values) are used to quantify the MHT changes in response to both CO2 and non-CO2 related forcings. We found that atmospheric poleward heat transport increases with CO2, while the effect of non-CO2 boundary conditions (e.g., paleogeography, land ice, vegetation) is causing more poleward atmospheric heat transport on the Northern and less on the Southern Hemisphere. The changes in paleogeography increase the heat transport via transient eddies at the mid-latitudes in the Eocene. The Hadley cells have an asymmetric response to both the CO2 and non-CO2 constraints. The poleward latent heat transport of monsoon systems increases with rising CO2 concentrations, but this effect is offset by the Eocene topography. Our results show that the changes in the monsoon systems’ latent heat transport is a robust feature of CO2 warming, which is in line with the currently observed precipitation increase of present day monsoon systems.

The total meridional heat transport (MHT) is relatively stable across different climates. Nevertheless, the strength of individual processes contributing to the total transport are not stable. Here we investigate the MHT and its main components especially in the atmosphere, in five coupled climate model simulations from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). These simulations target the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), a geological time period with high CO2 concentrations, analogous to the upper range of end-of-century CO2 projections. Preindustrial and early Eocene simulations at a range of CO2 levels (1x, 3x and 6x preindustrial values) are used to quantify the MHT changes in response to both CO2 and non-CO2 related forcings. We found that atmospheric poleward heat transport increases with CO2, while the effect of non-CO2 boundary conditions (e.g., paleogeography, land ice, vegetation) is causing more poleward atmospheric heat transport on the Northern and less on the Southern Hemisphere. The changes in paleogeography increase the heat transport via transient eddies at the mid-latitudes in the Eocene. The Hadley cells have an asymmetric response to both the CO2 and non-CO2 constraints. The poleward latent heat transport of monsoon systems increases with rising CO2 concentrations, but this effect is offset by the Eocene topography. Our results show that the changes in the monsoon systems’ latent heat transport is a robust feature of CO2 warming, which is in line with the currently observed precipitation increase of present day monsoon systems.

International audience; The early Eocene greenhouse climate maintained by high atmospheric CO2 concentrations serves as a testbed for future climate changes dominated by increasing CO2 forcing. In particular, the early Eocene Arctic region is important in the context of future CO2 driven climate warming in the northern polar region and associated shrinking Arctic sea ice. Here, we present early Eocene Arctic sea ice simulations carried out by six coupled climate models within the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). We find differences in sea ice responses to CO2 changes across the ensemble and compare the results with available proxy-based sea ice reconstructions from the Arctic Ocean. Most of the models simulate seasonal sea ice presence at high CO2 levels (≥ 840 ppmv = 3× pre-industrial (PI) level of 280 ppmv). However, the threshold when sea ice permanently disappears from the ocean varies considerably between the models (from 1680 ppmv). Based on a one-dimensional energy balance model analysis we find that the greenhouse effect likely caused by increased atmospheric water vapor concentration plays an important role in the inter-model spread in Arctic winter surface temperature changes in response to a CO2 rise from 1× to 3× the PI level. Furthermore, differences in simulated surface salinity in the Arctic Ocean play an important role in the control of local sea ice formation. These differences result from different implementations of river run-off between the models, but also from differences in the exchange of waters between a brackish Arctic and a more saline North Atlantic Ocean that are controlled by the width of the gateway between both basins. As there is no geological evidence for Arctic sea ice in the early Eocene, its presence in most of the simulations with 3× PI CO2 level indicates either a higher CO2 level and/or an overly weak polar sensitivity in these models.

We can only fully understand the past, present and future climate changes by bringing together data and process understanding from a broad range of environmental sciences. In theory, climate modelling provides a wealth of data of great interest to a wide variety of disciplines (e.g., chemistry, geology, hydrology), but in practice, the large volume and complexity of these datasets often prevent direct access and therefore limit their benefits for large parts of our community.We present the new online platform “climatearchive.org” to break down these barriers and provide intuitive and informative access to paleoclimate model data to our community. The current release enables interactive access to a recently published compilation of 109 HadCM3BL climate model simulations. Key climate variables (temperature, precipitation, vegetation and circulation) are displayed on a virtual globe in an intuitive three-dimensional environment and on a continuous time axis throughout the Phanerozoic. The software runs in any web browser — including smartphones — and promotes data exploration, appeals to students and generates public interest.We also show current work on the next phase of the platform, which aims to develop new tools for integration into a more quantitative research workflow. These include easy online generation and download of maps and time series plots of the underlying monthly model data. The data can also be exported as global fields or CSV files for any user-selected location for further offline analysis, such as use in spreadsheets. Finally, we will discuss and outline future integration of new sources of model and geochemical proxy data to simplify and advance interdisciplinary paleoclimate research.

International audience; Here, we compare the ocean overturning circulation of the early Eocene (47-56 Ma) in eight coupled climate model simulations from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) and investigate the causes of the observed inter-model spread. The most common global meridional overturning circulation (MOC) feature of these simulations is the anticlockwise bottom cell, fed by sinking in the Southern Ocean. In the North Pacific, one model (GFDL) displays strong deepwater formation and one model (CESM) shows weak deepwater formation, while in the Atlantic two models show signs of weak intermediate water formation (MIROC and NorESM). The location of the Southern Ocean deepwater formation sites varies among models and relates to small differences in model geometry of the Southern Ocean gateways. Globally, convection occurs in the basins with smallest local freshwater gain from the atmosphere. The global MOC is insensitive to atmospheric CO$_2$ concentrations from 1× (i.e., 280 ppm) to 3× (840 ppm) pre-industrial levels. Only two models have simulations with higher CO$_2$ (i.e., CESM and GFDL) and these show divergent responses, with a collapsed and active MOC, respectively, possibly due to differences in spin-up conditions. Combining the multiple model results with available proxy data on abyssal ocean circulation highlights that strong Southern Hemisphere-driven overturning is the most likely feature of the early Eocene. In the North Atlantic, unlike the present day, neither model results nor proxy data suggest deepwater formation in the open ocean during the early Eocene, while the evidence for deepwater formation in the North Pacific remains inconclusive

Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (∼57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to 28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and 27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are ∼10 to 16 ∘C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 ∘C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that “bulk” equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C), 3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to 4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values ( per doubling CO2).

The early Eocene (∼56–48 Myr ago) is characterized by high CO2 estimates (1,200–2,500 ppmv) and elevated global temperatures (∼10°C–16°C higher than modern). However, the response of the hydrological cycle during the early Eocene is poorly constrained, especially in regions with sparse data coverage (e.g., Africa). Here, we present a study of African hydroclimate during the early Eocene, as simulated by an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models in the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). A comparison between the DeepMIP pre-industrial simulations and modern observations suggests that model biases are model- and geographically dependent, however, these biases are reduced in the model ensemble mean. A comparison between the Eocene simulations and the pre-industrial suggests that there is no obvious wetting or drying trend as the CO2 increases. The results suggest that changes to the land sea mask (relative to modern) in the models may be responsible for the simulated increases in precipitation to the north of Eocene Africa. There is an increase in precipitation over equatorial and West Africa and associated drying over northern Africa as CO2 rises. There are also important dynamical changes, with evidence that anticyclonic low-level circulation is replaced by increased south-westerly flow at high CO2 levels. Lastly, a model-data comparison using newly compiled quantitative climate estimates from paleobotanical proxy data suggests a marginally better fit with the reconstructions at lower levels of CO2.

International audience; Inconsistencies in the Eocene climates of East Asia have been revealed in both geological studies and simulations. Several earlier reconstructions showed an arid zonal band in mid-latitude China, but others showed a humid climate in the same region. Moreover, previous Eocene modeling studies have demonstrated that climate models can simulate both scenarios in China. Therefore, it is essential to investigate the cause of this model spread. We conducted a series of experiments using Norwegian Earth System Model 1-F and examined the impact of mountains in Southern China on the simulated Eocene climate. These mountains, including the Gangdese and Southeast Mountains, are located along the main path of water vapor transport to East Asia. Our results reveal that the Southeast Mountains play the dominant role in controlling the simulated precipitation in Eastern China during the Eocene. When the heights of the Southeast Mountains exceed ∼2,000 m, an arid zonal band appears in mid-latitude China, whereas humid climates appear in Eastern China when the elevation of the Southeast Mountains is relatively low.

We present results from an ensemble of eight climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of the early Eocene climate optimum (EECO, ∼ 50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP; http://www.deepmip.org, last access: 10 January 2021); thus, all models have been configured with the same paleogeographic and vegetation boundary conditions. The results indicate that these non-CO2 boundary conditions contribute between 3 and 5 ∘C to Eocene warmth. Compared with results from previous studies, the DeepMIP simulations generally show a reduced spread of the global mean surface temperature response across the ensemble for a given atmospheric CO2 concentration as well as an increased climate sensitivity on average. An energy balance analysis of the model ensemble indicates that global mean warming in the Eocene compared with the preindustrial period mostly arises from decreases in emissivity due to the elevated CO2 concentration (and associated water vapour and long-wave cloud feedbacks), whereas the reduction in the Eocene in terms of the meridional temperature gradient is primarily due to emissivity and albedo changes owing to the non-CO2 boundary conditions (i.e. the removal of the Antarctic ice sheet and changes in vegetation). Three of the models (the Community Earth System Model, CESM; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL, model; and the Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM) show results that are consistent with the proxies in terms of the global mean temperature, meridional SST gradient, and CO2, without prescribing changes to model parameters. In addition, many of the models agree well with the first-order spatial patterns in the SST proxies. However, at a more regional scale, the models lack skill. In particular, the modelled anomalies are substantially lower than those indicated by the proxies in the southwest Pacific; here, modelled continental surface air temperature anomalies are more consistent with surface air temperature proxies, implying a possible inconsistency between marine and terrestrial temperatures in either the proxies or models in this region. Our aim is that the documentation of the large-scale features and model–data comparison presented herein will pave the way to further studies that explore aspects of the model simulations in more detail, for example the ocean circulation, hydrological cycle, and modes of variability, and encourage sensitivity studies to aspects such as paleogeography, orbital configuration, and aerosols.

The Weissert Event ~133 million years ago marked a profound global cooling that punctuated the Early Cretaceous greenhouse. We present modelling, high-resolution bulk organic carbon isotopes and chronostratigraphically calibrated sea surface temperature (SSTs) based on an organic paleothermometer (the TEX86 proxy), which capture the Weissert Event in the semi-enclosed Weddell Sea basin, offshore Antarctica (paleolatitude ~54 °S; paleowater depth ~500 meters). We document a ~3–4 °C drop in SST coinciding with the Weissert cold end, and converge the Weddell Sea data, climate simulations and available worldwide multi-proxy based temperature data towards one unifying solution providing a best-fit between all lines of evidence. The outcome confirms a 3.0 °C ( ±1.7 °C) global mean surface cooling across the Weissert Event, which translates into a ~40% drop in atmospheric pCO2 over a period of ~700 thousand years. Consistent with geologic evidence, this pCO2 drop favoured the potential build-up of local polar ice. Modelling and sea surface temperature proxy data from the Weddell Sea document a 3–4 °C drop coinciding with the Early Cretaceous Weissert Event. Temperature data worldwide confirm a 3.0 °C global mean surface cooling, equivalent to a ~40% drop in atmospheric pCO2, favouring local polar ice.

The early Eocene greenhouse represents the warmest interval of the Cenozoic and therefore provides a unique opportunity to understand how the climate system operates under elevated atmospheric CO2 levels similar to those projected for the end of the 21st century. Early Eocene geological records indicate a large increase in global mean surface temperatures compared to present day (by ~14°C) and a greatly reduced meridional temperature gradient (by ~30% in SST). However, reproducing these large-scale climate features at reasonable CO2 levels still poses a challenge for current climate models. Recent modelling studies indicate an important role for shortwave (SW) cloud feedbacks to drive increases in climate sensitivity with global warming, which helps to close the gap between simulated and reconstructed Eocene global warmth and temperature gradient. Nevertheless, the presence of such state-dependent feedbacks and their relative strengths in other models remain unclear.In this study, we perform a systematic investigation of the simulated surface warming and the underlying mechanisms in the recently published DeepMIP ensemble. The DeepMIP early Eocene simulations use identical paleogeographic boundary conditions and include six models with suitable output: CESM1.2_CAM5, GFDL_CM2.1, HadCM3B_M2.1aN, IPSLCM5A2, MIROC4m and NorESM1_F. We advance previous energy balance analysis by applying the approximate partial radiative perturbation (APRP) technique to quantify the individual contributions of surface albedo, cloud and non-cloud atmospheric changes to the simulated Eocene top-of-the-atmosphere SW flux anomalies. We further compare the strength of these planetary albedo feedbacks to changes in the longwave atmospheric emissivity and meridional heat transport in the warm Eocene climate. Particular focus lies in the sensitivity of the feedback strengths to increasing global mean temperatures in experiments at a range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations between x1 to x9 preindustrial levels.Preliminary results indicate that all models that provide data for at least 3 different CO2 levels show an increase of the equilibrium climate sensitivity at higher global mean temperatures. This is associated with an increase of the overall strength of the positive SW cloud feedback with warming in those models. This nonlinear behavior seems to be related to both a reduction and optical thinning of low-level clouds, albeit with intermodel differences in the relative importance of the two mechanisms. We further show that our new APRP results can differ significantly from previous estimates based on cloud radiative forcing alone, especially in high-latitude areas with large surface albedo changes. We also find large intermodel variability and state-dependence in meridional heat transport modulated by changes in the atmospheric latent heat transport. Ongoing work focuses on the spatial patterns of the climate feedbacks and the implications for the simulated meridional temperature gradients.

Highlights • New Early Cretaceous South Atlantic TEX86 samples and climate modelling. • Systematic differences in Cretaceous isoGDGT abundances. • Regional similarities to modern Mediterranean and Red Sea sediments. Regional TEX86-temperature calibration enables model-data congruence for OAE 1a. Abstract The Cretaceous Period (145-66 Ma) provides an opportunity to obtain insights into the adaptation of the climate system to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The organic paleothermometer TEX86 is one of the few proxies available for reconstructing quantitative estimates of upper ocean temperatures of this time period. Here we show that the sedimentary TEX86 signal in the Early Cretaceous North and South Atlantic shows systematic differences to other Cretaceous samples. In particular, the relative increase in the fractional abundances of the crenarchaeol isomer compared to crenarchaeol exhibits similarities with surface sediments from the modern Mediterranean and Red Sea. Dedicated climate model simulations suggest that the formation of warm and saline deep waters in the restricted North and South Atlantic may have influenced TEX86 export dynamics leading to a warm bias in reconstructed upper ocean temperatures. Applying a regional calibration from the modern Mediterranean and Red Sea to corresponding TEX86 data significantly improves the model-data fit for the Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a and the overall comparison with other temperature proxies for the Early Cretaceous. Our results demonstrate the need to consider regional and temporal changes of the TEX86-temperature relation for the reconstruction of deep-time ocean temperatures.

Extensive black shale deposits formed in the Early Cretaceous South Atlantic, supporting the notion that this emerging ocean basin was a globally important site of organic carbon burial. The magnitude of organic carbon burial in marine basins is known to be controlled by various tectonic, oceanographic, hydrological, and climatic processes acting on different temporal and spatial scales, the nature and relative importance of which are poorly understood for the young South Atlantic. Here we present new bulk and molecular geochemical data from an Aptian–Albian sediment record recovered from the deep Cape Basin at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 361, which we combine with general circulation model results to identify driving mechanisms of organic carbon burial. A multimillion-year decrease (i.e., Early Aptian–Albian) in organic carbon burial, reflected in a lithological succession of black shale, gray shale, and red beds, was caused by increasing bottom water oxygenation due to abating hydrographic restriction via South Atlantic–Southern Ocean gateways. These results emphasize basin evolution and ocean gateway development as a decisive primary control on enhanced organic carbon preservation in the Cape Basin at geological timescales (> 1 Myr). The Early Aptian black shale sequence comprises alternations of shales with high (> 6 %) and relatively low (∼ 3.5 %) organic carbon content of marine sources, the former being deposited during the global Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 1a, as well as during repetitive intervals before and after OAE 1a. In all cases, these short-term intervals of enhanced organic carbon burial coincided with strong influxes of sediments derived from the proximal African continent, indicating closely coupled climate–land–ocean interactions. Supported by our model results, we show that fluctuations in weathering-derived nutrient input from the southern African continent, linked to changes in orbitally driven humidity and aridity, were the underlying drivers of repetitive episodes of enhanced organic carbon burial in the deep Cape Basin. These results suggest that deep marine environments of emerging ocean basins responded sensitively and directly to short-term fluctuations in riverine nutrient fluxes. We explain this relationship using the lack of wide and mature continental shelf seas that could have acted as a barrier or filter for nutrient transfer from the continent into the deep ocean.

Highlights • Nd isotope records from the South Atlantic and Southern Ocean. • New Early Cretaceous general circulation model. • Opening history of gateways on the Falkland Plateau. • Gateway opening controlled organic carbon burial. Organic carbon burial is an important driver of carbon cycle and climate dynamics on geological and shorter time scales. Ocean basins emerging during the Early Cretaceous break-up of Gondwana were primary sites of organic carbon burial, implying that their tectonic and oceanographic evolution may have affected trends and perturbations in global climate via changes in local organic carbon burial. Assessing the role of individual ocean basins in the global carbon-climate context requires a sound understanding of the processes that induced large-scale changes in carbon burial and the timing of these changes. Here we reconstruct the oceanographic evolution, and its links to organic carbon burial, in the Barremian to Albian South Atlantic and Southern Ocean basins, which may have acted as carbon sinks of global importance. Our reconstruction is based on combined seawater neodymium isotope and sedimentological records obtained from multiple deep sea drill sites and a new general circulation model. Deep water circulation within and between those basins was primarily controlled by the opening of the shallow Falkland Plateau Gateway (between ∼118 Ma and ∼113 Ma) and the deep Georgia Basin Gateway (by ∼110 Ma), for which we provide new age constraints based on biostratigraphic and carbon isotope data. The opening of these gateways was accompanied by local to basin-wide decreases in organic carbon burial, suggesting that ocean circulation affected the oxygenation state via changes in deep water ventilation. Although our data do not provide quantitative information on the impact of changes in regional organic carbon burial on the global carbon cycle, the synchronicity between the reduction of organic carbon burial in the South Atlantic basin and global warming during the Early Albian points to a strong causal relationship.

Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing during the geological record. GMST estimates from the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (~ 57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (~ 9 to 23 °C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Here, we develop a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during three target intervals: 1) the latest Paleocene (~ 57 Ma), 2) the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (56 Ma) and 3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 49.4 to 53.3 Ma). Using six independent methodologies, we find that average GMST estimates during the latest Paleocene and PETM are 11.7 °C (±0.6 °C) and 18.7 °C (±0.8 °C) higher than pre-industrial, respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are 13.3 °C (±0.5 °C) warmer than pre-industrial and comparable to previous IPCC AR5 estimates (12.7 °C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the extremely large "signal" associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM and EECO to calculate a gross estimate of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. This yields gross climate sensitivity estimates for the latest Paleocene, PETM and EECO which range between 2.8 to 4.8 °C (66 % confidence). These largely fall within the range predicted by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 °C per doubling CO2), but appear incompatible with low values (between 1.5 and 2.8 °C per doubling CO2).

Periodic changes in sediment composition are usually ascribed to insolation forcing controlled by Earth’s orbital parameters. During the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum at 97–91 Myr ago (Ma), a 37–50-kyr-long cycle that is generally believed to reflect obliquity forcing dominates the sediment record. Here, we use a numerical ocean model to show that a cycle of this length can be generated by marine biogeochemical processes without applying orbital forcing. According to our model, the restricted proto-North Atlantic and Tethys basins were poorly ventilated and oscillated between iron-rich and sulfidic (euxinic) states. The Panthalassa Basin was fertilized by dissolved iron originating from the proto-North Atlantic. Hence, it was less oxygenated while the proto-North Atlantic was in an iron-rich state and better oxygenated during euxinic periods in the proto-North Atlantic. This redox see-saw was strong enough to create significant changes in atmospheric $$p_{\mathrm {CO}_2}$$ . We conclude that most of the variability in the mid-Cretaceous ocean–atmosphere system can be ascribed to the internal redox see-saw and its response to external orbital forcing. An internal redox see-saw between the Panthalassa Basin and the proto-North Atlantic can explain cyclic changes in the sediment record throughout the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum 97 to 91 million years ago, according to simulations with a numerical ocean model.

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