1. The future demand of renewable fuels in Germany: Understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio-economic developments
- Author
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Jonathan Vincents Eriksen, Sebastian Marco Franz, Julius Steensberg, Adam Vejstrup, Mikkel Bosack, Rasmus Bramstoft, and Fabian Scheller
- Subjects
Renewable fuels ,Hydrogen ,Energy system analysis ,Energy transition ,Shared socioeconomic pathways ,Science (General) ,Q1-390 ,Social sciences (General) ,H1-99 - Abstract
The Climate Change Act recently enacted in Germany highlights the urgency of understanding the future demand for renewable fuels. In this study, we combine technological progress and socio-economic pathways in an energy system analysis to assess future renewable fuel demands in Germany. We apply the whole-system optimisation model, TIMES, to investigate transition pathways with varying electrification levels and socio-economic developments. The results show that renewable fuels demand varies between 388 PJ and 1310 PJ depending on the electrification rates. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that considering socio-economic aspects and behavioural change, as represented by different Shared-Socio-economic Pathways, can significantly alter the demand for renewable fuels within a narrower yet still noteworthy range compared to the electrification scenarios. This provides country-level evidence highlighting the often-overlooked influence of social developments on demand projections. Consequently, it becomes crucial to prioritize the consideration of the climate mitigation potential arising from socioeconomic-induced changes in demand patterns within the broader framework of energy efficiency measures.
- Published
- 2023
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