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Recent reports such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere and the Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment highlight the impacts of current and accelerating climate change in mountain regions. However, a multi-dimensional gap remains regarding research at high elevations in general. Here, we reflect upon this gap and ways in which it can be filled.

As the highest mountain on Earth, Mount Everest is an iconic peak that offers an unrivalled natural platform for measuring ongoing climate change across the full elevation range of Asia’s water towers. However, Everest’s extreme environment challenges data collection, particularly on the mountain’s upper slopes, where glaciers accumulate mass and mountaineers are most exposed. Weather stations have operated on Everest before, including the world’s previous highest, but coverage has been sparse in space and time. Here we describe the installation of a network of five automatic weather stations (AWSs), including the two highest stations on Earth (8,430 and 7,945 m MSL) which greatly improves monitoring of this iconic mountain. We highlight sample applications of the new data, including an initial assessment of surface energy fluxes at Camp II (6,464 m MSL) and the South Col (7,945 m MSL), which suggest melt occurs at both sites, despite persistently below-freezing air temperatures. This analysis indicates that melt may even be possible at the 8,850 m MSL summit, and prompts a reevaluation of empirical temperature index models used to simulate glacier melt in the Himalayas that focus only on air temperature. We also provide the first evaluation of numerical weather forecasts at almost 8,000 m MSL and use of model output statistics to reduce forecast error, showcasing an important opportunity to improve climber safety on Everest. Looking forward, we emphasize the considerable potential of these freely available data for understanding weather and climate in the Himalayas and beyond, including tracking the behavior of upper-atmosphere winds, which the AWS network is uniquely positioned to monitor.

Phosphorus (P) is one of the key limiting nutrients for algal growth in most fresh surface waters. Understanding the determinants of P accumulation in the water column of lakes of interest, and the prediction of its concentration is important to water quality managers and other stakeholders. We hypothesized that lake physicochemical, climate, and watershed land-use attributes control lake P concentration. We collected relevant data from 126 lakes in Maine, USA, to determine the major drivers for summer total epilimnetic P concentrations. Predictive regression-based models featured lake external and internal drivers. The most important land-use driver was the extent of agriculture in the watershed. Lake average depth was the most important physical driver, with shallow lakes being most susceptible to high P concentrations; shallow lakes often stratify weakly and are most subject to internal mixing. The sediment NaOH-extracted aluminum (Al) to bicarbonate/dithionite-extracted P molar ratio was the most important sediment chemical driver; lakes with a high hypolimnetic P release have low ratios. The dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration was an important water column chemical driver; lakes having a high DOC concentration generally had higher epilimnetic P concentrations. Precipitation and temperature, two important climate/weather variables, were not significant drivers of epilimnetic P in the predictive models. Because lake depth and sediment quality are fixed in the short-term, the modeling framework serves as a quantitative lake management tool for stakeholders to assess the vulnerability of individual lakes to watershed development, particularly agriculture. The model also enables decisions for sustainable development in the watershed and lake remediation if sediment quality is conducive to internal P release. The findings of this study may be applied to bloom metrics more directly to support lake and watershed management actions.

The North Atlantic-Arctic boundary is highly variable due to the transports of heat and moisture through the Gulf Stream and polar jet stream. The North Atlantic storm track generally follows the Gulf Stream and terminates near southeast Greenland and Iceland as the Icelandic Low. The Icelandic Low is the main driver of the North Atlantic Oscillation, particularly during winter months as the baroclinic zone expands to lower latitudes, correlating with temperature and precipitation in many areas around the North Atlantic. Understanding how atmospheric circulation, temperature, and precipitation changes in this region is important to build robust projections of how these variables will change, especially under natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here, climate proxies correlating to the Icelandic Low, summer air temperature, and annual precipitation build an understanding of how these variables changed over the last 2000 years. Through the natural climate shifts of this period — Roman Warm Period, Dark Ages Cold Period, Medieval Climate Anomaly, and Little Ice Age — it is shown that storm frequency decreases as temperature increases and the Icelandic Low increases in pressure (i.e., becomes weaker). However, these climate changes are not simultaneous, and their amplitudes are not similar across the region. Keeping regionality rather than a pan-Arctic average better explains natural variability of each sub-region and how each sub-region has evolved climatically due to anthropogenic forcings of greenhouse gases.

Geographical range expansions of blacklegged tick [Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae)] populations over time in the United States have been attributed to a mosaic of factors including 20th century reforestation followed by suburbanization, burgeoning populations of the white-tailed deer [Odocoileus virginianus Zimmerman (Artiodactyla: Cervidae)], and, at the northern edge of I. scapularis’ range, climate change. Maine, a high Lyme disease incidence state, has been experiencing warmer and shorter winter seasons, and relatively more so in its northern tier. Maine served as a case study to investigate the interacting impacts of deer and seasonal climatology on the spatial and temporal distribution of I. scapularis. A passive tick surveillance dataset indexed abundance of I. scapularis nymphs for the state, 1990–2013. With Maine’s wildlife management districts as the spatial unit, we used a generalized additive model to assess linear and nonlinear relationships between I. scapularis nymph abundance and predictors. Nymph submission rate increased with increasing deer densities up to ~5 deer/km2 (13 deer/mi2), but beyond this threshold did not vary with deer density. This corroborated the idea of a saturating relationship between I. scapularis and deer density. Nymphs also were associated with warmer minimum winter temperatures, earlier degree-day accumulation, and higher relative humidity. However, nymph abundance only increased with warmer winters and degree-day accumulation where deer density exceeded ~2 deer/km2 (~6/mi2). Anticipated increases in I. scapularis in the northern tier could be partially mitigated through deer herd management.

Future changes in North Pacific wintertime climate will be largely determined by the response of the Aleutian Low (ALow) pressure system to anthropogenic forcing. Although the ALow has intensified over the twentieth century, global climate model projections of future ALow variability are equivocal. In order to evaluate decadal to centennial ALow forcing mechanisms and provide context for the modern intensification, here we combine a new Denali ice core (Alaska) sea-salt sodium record with the Mount Logan ice core (Yukon) sodium record to develop a composite 1200 year record of ALow variability. The composite record indicates that the recent secular ALow intensification began circa 1741 and is unprecedented in magnitude and duration over the past millennium. North Pacific ice core snow accumulation and stable isotope records are consistent with this interpretation. The ALow intensification is associated with warming tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, consistent with dynamic theory and instrumental correlations.

The surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet has decreased in recent decades with important implications for global sea-level rise. Here, a climate reanalysis model is used to examine observed circulation variability and changes in precipitation across southern Greenland to gain insight into the future climate in the region. The influence on precipitation from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Icelandic Low, Azores High, regional blocking patterns, as well as near-surface temperature and winds are explored. Statistically significant correlations are higher between precipitation and the Icelandic Low and near-surface winds (0.5–0.7; p < 0.05) than correlations between precipitation and either the NAO or AMO climate indices (southwest Greenland: r = 0.12 and 0.28, respectively; and southeast Greenland: r = 0.25 and -0.07, respectively). Moreover, the recent enhanced warming in the Arctic (Arctic amplification) and the increase in the Greenland Blocking Index coincide with increased mean annual precipitation and interannual variability in southwest Greenland.

A primary goal of the SCAR (Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research) initiated AntClim21 (Antarctic Climate in the 21st Century) Scientific Research Programme is to develop analogs for understanding past, present and future climates for the Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere. In this contribution to AntClim21 we provide a framework for achieving this goal that includes: a description of basic climate parameters; comparison of existing climate reanalyses; and ice core sodium records as proxies for the frequencies of marine air mass intrusion spanning the past ∼2000 years. The resulting analog examples include: natural variability, a continuation of the current trend in Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate characterized by some regions of warming and some cooling at the surface of the Southern Ocean, Antarctic ozone healing, a generally warming climate and separate increases in the meridional and zonal winds. We emphasize changes in atmospheric circulation because the atmosphere rapidly transports heat, moisture, momentum, and pollutants, throughout the middle to high latitudes. In addition, atmospheric circulation interacts with temporal variations (synoptic to monthly scales, inter-annual, decadal, etc.) of sea ice extent and concentration. We also investigate associations between Antarctic atmospheric circulation features, notably the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), and primary climate teleconnections including the SAM (Southern Annular Mode), ENSO (El Nîno Southern Oscillation), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and solar irradiance variations.

Author(s): Jones, HM; Mecray, EL; Birkel, SD; Conlon, KC; Kinney, PL; Silva, VBS; Solecki, W; Surgeon Rogers, TM

Robust glacial chronologies are needed to address the fundamental questions of when and why Ice Age climates begin and end. Well-preserved glacial deposits left by large ice sheet lobes adjacent to Estrecho de Magallanes (53°S; Chile) in southernmost South America provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct the timing and fine structure of the last two major glaciations, as well as the last termination. We present a new precise 10Be surface exposure dataset of 34 moraine boulders directly tied to a recently published, high resolution glacial geomorphic map of the deposits left by the Magallanes lobe. We find that the southern section of the Patagonian Ice Sheet was more extensive during Marine Isotope Stage 4 (MIS 4) than during MIS 2, representing the first direct dating of the MIS 4 glacier culmination in South America. Similar to the MIS 2 glacial maxima, within MIS 4 there were multiple advances that we date (n = 6 samples) to between 67.5 ± 2.1 and 62.1 ± 2.0 ka. A similarly timed MIS 4 advance was identified in New Zealand, indicating that this is a hemisphere-wide glacier-climate signal, which is further corroborated by South Atlantic and Pacific temperature proxy records. Inboard of the MIS 4 moraine complex, we date a sequence of geomorphically distinct MIS 2 moraines that represent separate major periods of glacial stability. The MIS 2 maximum extent occurred by 27.4 ± 0.8 ka (n = 4; arithmetic mean, with the standard error of the mean and 3% propagated production rate error) and was followed by at least four more full glacial culminations at 25.7 ± 0.8 (n = 3), 23.9 ± 0.8 (n = 5), 19.1 ± 0.7 (n = 3), and 18.1 ± 0.6 ka (n = 3), which represent periods when the glacier was in equilibrium with the climate for long enough to form major moraines. About 18 km inboard, this sequence is followed by smaller-scale recessional moraine crests, deposited on drumlinized terrain rather than a moraine drift, that we date to 18.0 ± 0.8 ka, indicating the glacier was in net retreat at this time. Tentative results from a 2D ice sheet model suggest that the Magallanes lobe may have reached mapped inner and outer MIS 2 moraines from a climate with approximately 4.5 °C and 5.5 °C cooler summers, respectively, assuming ∼25% less annual precipitation, relative to modern climate. We hypothesize that during the last glacial cycle, shifts in the subtropical and subantarctic fronts, and related ocean-atmosphere patterns, explain MIS 4 to 2 glacial behavior in the southern mid-latitudes.

Geological evidence for modeled Younger Dryas ice expansion in northern Maine is assessed in conjunction with temperature and precipitation estimates from chironomids and pollen, and plant macrofossil and lake-level analyses from lake sediment. Pollen and chironomid temperature and precipitation transfer-function estimates for the Allerod warming period indicate colder winters, precipitation levels half that of modern times, and summer temperatures near modern levels. The combination of cold winters and low precipitation prevented forest establishment in northern Maine along the Maine/New Brunswick border. While winter temperatures and precipitation remained stable, summer temperatures decreased as much as 7.5 °C during the Younger Dryas stadial, forcing a shift from shrub-dominated to sedge-dominated tundra. Summer and winter temperatures, as well as annual precipitation, increased rapidly at the Holocene onset.

Interannual climate variability is expected to increase over the next century, but the extent to which hydroclimatic variability influences biogeochemical processes is unclear. To determine the effects of extreme weather on surface water chemistry, a 30-year record of surface water geochemistry for 84 lakes in the northeastern U.S. was combined with landscape data and watershed-specific weather data. With these data, responses in sulfate (SO4 2−) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations were characterized during an extreme wet year and an extreme dry year across the region. Redundancy analysis was used to model lake chemical response to extreme weather as a function of watershed features. A response was observed in DOC and SO4 2− concentration in response to extreme wet and dry years in lakes across the northeastern U.S. Acidification was observed during drought and brownification was observed during wet years. Lake chemical response was related to landscape characteristics in different ways depending on the type of extreme year. A linear relationship between wetland coverage and DOC and SO4 2− deviations was observed during extreme wet years. The results presented here help to clarify the variability observed in long-term recovery from acidification and regional increases in DOC. Understanding the chemical response to weather variability is becoming increasingly important as temporal variation in precipitation is likely to intensify with continued atmospheric warming.

Lake Auburn, Maine, USA, is a historically unproductive lake that has experienced multiple algal blooms since 2011. The lake is the water supply source for a population of ~60,000. We modeled past temperature, and concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) and phosphorus (P) in Lake Auburn by considering the catchment and internal contributions of P as well as atmospheric factors, and predicted the change in lake water quality in response to future climate and land-use changes. A stream hydrology and P-loading model (SimplyP) was used to generate input from two major tributaries into a lake model (MyLake-Sediment) to simulate physical mixing, chemical dynamics, and sediment geochemistry in Lake Auburn from 2013 to 2017. Simulations of future lake water quality were conducted using meteorological boundary conditions derived from recent historical data and climate model projections for high greenhouse-gas emission cases. The effects of future land development on lake water quality for the 2046 to 2055 time period under different land-use and climate change scenarios were also simulated. Our results indicate that lake P enrichment is more responsive to extreme storm events than increasing air temperatures, mean precipitation, or windstorms; loss of fish habitat is driven by windstorms, and to a lesser extent an increasing water temperature; and catchment development further leads to water quality decline. All simulations also show that the lake is susceptible to both internal and external P loadings. Simulation of temperature, DO, and P proved to be an effective means for predicting the loss of water quality under changing land-use and climate scenarios.

We present the first high-resolution (sub-annual) dust particle data set from West Antarctica, developed from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide deep ice core (79.468° S, 112.086° W), and use it to reconstruct changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 2400 years. We find a background dust flux of ~4 mg m−2 year−1 and a mode particle size of 5–8 μm diameter. Through comparing the WAIS Divide record with other Antarctic ice core particle records, we observe that coastal and lower-elevation sites have higher dust fluxes and coarser particle size distributions (PSDs) than sites on the East Antarctic plateau, suggesting input from local dust sources at these lower-elevation sites. In order to explore the use of the WAIS Divide dust PSD as a proxy for past atmospheric circulation, we make quantitative comparisons between both mid-latitude zonal wind speed and West Antarctic meridional wind speed and the dust size record, finding significant positive interannual relationships. We find that the dust PSD is related to mid-latitude zonal wind speed via cyclonic activity in the Amundsen Sea region. Using our PSD record, and through comparison with spatially distributed climate reconstructions from the Southern Hemisphere (SH) middle and high latitudes, we infer that the SH westerlies occupied a more southerly position from circa 1050 to 1400 CE (Common Era), coinciding with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). Subsequently, at ca. 1430 CE, the wind belt shifted equatorward, where it remained until the mid-to-late twentieth century. We find covariability between reconstructions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the mid-latitude westerly winds in the eastern Pacific, suggesting that centennial-scale circulation changes in this region are strongly influenced by the tropical Pacific. Further, we observe increased coarse particle deposition over the past 50 years, consistent with observations that the SH westerlies have been shifting southward and intensifying in recent decades.

The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is a 60–70 year pattern of sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic commonly ascribed to internal ocean dynamics and changes in northward heat transport. Recent modeling studies, however, suggest that SSTs fluctuate primarily in response to major volcanic eruptions and changes in atmospheric circulation. Here, we utilize historical SST, atmospheric reanalysis, and stratospheric aerosol optical depth data to examine the basic evidence supporting a volcanic link. We find that cool intervals across the North Atlantic coincide with two distinct episodes of explosive volcanic activity (1880s–1920s and 1960s–1990s), where key eruptions include 1883 Krakatau, 1902 Santa Maria, 1912 Novarupta, 1963 Agung, 1982 El Chichon, and 1991 Pinatubo. Cool SST patterns develop in association with an increased prevalence of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)+ atmospheric patterns caused by stratospheric aerosol loading and a steepened poleward temperature gradient. NAO+ patterns promote wind-driven advection, evaporative cooling, and increased albedo from enhanced Saharan dust transport and anthropogenic aerosols. SSTs across the subpolar gyre are regulated by strength of low pressure near Iceland and the associated wind-driven advection of cold surface water from the Labrador Sea. This is contrary to an interpretation that subpolar SSTs are driven by changes in ocean overturning circulation. We also find that North Pacific and global mean SST declines can be readily associated with the same volcanic triggers that affect the North Atlantic. Thus, external forcing from volcanic aerosols appears to underpin multi-decade SST variability observed in the historical record. Past multi-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic is influenced by volcanic activity. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—a 60–70 year cycle between warm and cool SST—has been linked to internal ocean dynamics, but climate models suggest volcanic eruptions may play a role. Sean Birkel and colleagues from the University of Maine provide an observational perspective on such connections. Episodes of explosive volcanism coincide with cooler intervals in the North Atlantic, driven by volcanically-forced shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. In the 1880s–1920s, for example, the Krakatau, Santa Maria and Novarupta eruptions forced cooler SST, whereas a period of relatively quiescent volcanism enabled warmer SST in the 1930s-1950s. Observational evidence therefore suggests volcanic activity may more strongly influence North Atlantic—and thus global—climate variability than previously thought.

A key indicator of changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle is shifting dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in surface waters. Arctic permafrost holds twice as much C as the atmosphere, thus recent warming and changes in atmospheric deposition to the region raise the need for a better understanding of how DOC is changing in arctic surface waters. In Kangerlussuaq, Greenland, lakewater DOC concentrations declined by 14 to 55% (absolute changes of 1 to 24 mg L-1) between 2003 and 2013, without significant changes in quality. Lakewater sulfate concentrations, but not chloride or conductivity, increased. These results suggest that, similar to processes that have occurred at northern mid-latitudes, increases in soil ionic strength as a result of sulfate enrichment may be linked to declining surface water DOC concentrations. Such enrichment may be occurring with enhanced non-sea-salt sulfate deposition. Our results reveal that rapid changes are occurring in the carbon cycle of this region of southwest Greenland.

Understanding past atmospheric dust variability is necessary to put modern atmospheric dust into historical context and assess the impacts of dust on the climate. In Asia, meteorological data of atmospheric dust is temporally limited, beginning only in the 1950s. High-resolution ice cores provide the ideal archive for reconstructing preinstrumental atmospheric dust concentrations. Using a ~500 year (1477–1982 A.D.) annually resolved calcium (Ca) dust proxy from a Tibetan Plateau (TP) ice core, we demonstrate the lowest atmospheric dust concentrations in the past ~500 years during the latter twentieth century. Declines in late nineteenth to twentieth century Ca concentrations significantly correspond with regional zonal wind trends from two reanalysis models, suggesting that the Ca record provides a proxy for the westerlies. Twentieth century warming and attendant atmospheric pressure reductions over northern Asia have potentially reduced temperature/pressure gradients resulting in lower zonal wind velocities and associated dust entrainment/transport in the past ~500 years over the TP.

Glacial maxima and their terminations provide key insights into inter-hemispheric climate dynamics and the coupling of atmosphere, surface and deep ocean, hydrology, and cryosphere, which is fundamental for evaluating the robustness of earth's climate in view of ongoing climate change. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼26–19 ka ago) is widely seen as the global cold peak during the last glacial cycle, and its transition to the Holocene interglacial, dubbed 'Termination 1 (T1)', as the most dramatic climate reorganization during this interval. Climate records show that over the last 800 ka, ice ages peaked and terminated on average every 100 ka (‘100 ka world’). However, the mechanisms pacing glacial–interglacial transitions remain controversial and in particular the hemispheric manifestations and underlying orbital to regional driving forces of glacial maxima and subsequent terminations remain poorly understood.

Future precipitation changes in a warming climate depend regionally upon the response of natural climate modes to anthropogenic forcing. North Pacific hydroclimate is dominated by the Aleutian Low, a semi-permanent wintertime feature characterized by frequent low-pressure conditions that is influenced by tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures through the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. Instrumental records show a recent increase in coastal Alaskan precipitation and Aleutian Low intensification, but are of insufficient length to accurately assess low frequency trends and forcing mechanisms. Here we present a 1200-year seasonally- to annually-resolved ice core record of snow accumulation from Mt. Hunter in the Alaska Range developed using annual layer counting and four ice-flow thinning models. Under a wide range of glacier flow conditions and layer counting uncertainty, our record shows a doubling of precipitation since ~1840 CE, with recent values exceeding the variability observed over the past millennium. The precipitation increase is nearly synchronous with the warming of western tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. While regional 20th Century warming may account for a portion of the observed precipitation increase on Mt. Hunter, the magnitude and seasonality of the precipitation change indicate a long-term strengthening of the Aleutian Low.

Central Asia (CA) is one of the most arid places on Earth and climate change threatens to disrupt the natural hydrologic systems that store its limited annual wet-season precipitation in glaciers and release it during the dry season. Warm/Wet and Cold/Dry periods recorded over the last 2000 years using multiple paleoclimate proxy records reflect a local hydrocycle dominated by the Westerlies and moisture recycling within the Aral Sea catchment. The best tool for assessing recent climate trends is modern reanalysis modeling, ground-truthed by weather station data. Using the best-fit reanalysis, we find warming and drying trends have dominated the region over the last 115 years. Continued warming and drying in glacierized eastern CA during the critical spring season when glaciers typically increase in mass increase the likelihood that human infrastructure will be needed to impound wet-season precipitation.

The abrupt climate shifts identified in Greenland ice cores transformed understanding of the climate system. Although primarily studied in the paleoclimate record, abrupt climate change induced by greenhouse gas rise poses a serious threat to modern humans and ecosystems. We present the first ultra-high-resolution view (hundreds of samples per year) of the abrupt onset (within 1 year) of the current interglacial (warm) climate retrieved from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project Two (GISP2) ice core archive. This abrupt onset is manifested by a marked reduction in storm event frequency and increase in the length of the summer season around Greenland. We apply this metric to the current rapid climatic amelioration in the Arctic as a precursor for future abrupt climate change events.

Determining whether glaciers registered the classic Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼26,500–∼19,000 yrs ago) coevally between the hemispheres can help to discriminate among hypothesized drivers of ice-age climate. Here, we present a record of glacier behavior from the Southern Alps of New Zealand during the ‘local LGM’ (LLGM). We used 10 Be surface-exposure dating methods and detailed glacial geomorphologic mapping to produce a robust chronology of well-preserved terminal moraines deposited during the LLGM near Lake Ohau on central South Island. We then used a glaciological model to estimate a LLGM glacier snowline and atmospheric temperature from the Ohau glacier record. Seventy-three 10 Be surface-exposure ages place culminations of terminal moraine construction, and hence completions of glacier advances to positions outboard of present-day Lake Ohau, at 138,600 ± 10,600 yrs, 32,520 ± 970 yrs ago, 27,400 ± 1300 yrs ago, 22,510 ± 660 yrs ago, and 18,220 ± 500 yrs ago. Recessional moraines document glacier recession into the Lake Ohau trough by 17,690 ± 350 yrs ago. Exposure of an ice-molded bedrock bench located inboard of the innermost LLGM moraines by 17,380 ± 510 yrs ago indicates that the ice tongue had receded about 40% of its overall length by that time. Comparing our chronology with distances of retreat suggests that the Ohau glacier terminus receded at a mean net rate of about 77 m yr −1 and its surface lowered by 200 m between 17,690 and 17,380 yrs ago. A long-term continuation of ice retreat in the Ohau glacier catchment is implied by moraine records at the head of Irishman Stream valley, a tributary of the Ohau glacier valley. The Irishman Stream cirque glacier advanced to produce a set of Lateglacial moraines at 13,000 ± 500 yrs ago, implying that the cirque glacier was less extensive prior to that advance. We employed a glaciological model, fit to these mapped and dated LLGM moraines, to derive snowline elevations and temperature parameters from the Ohau glacier record. The modeling experiments indicate that a snowline lowering of 920 ± 50 m and temperature depression of 6.25 ± 0.5 °C below modern values allows for the Ohau glacier to grow to an equilibrium position within the LGM moraine belt. Taken together with a glaciological simulation reported from the Irishman Stream valley, snowlines and temperatures increased by at least ∼520 m and ∼3.6 °C, respectively, between ∼18,000 and ∼13,000 yrs ago. Climate parameters derived from the Ohau glacier reconstruction are similar to those derived from glacier records from Patagonia, to air temperature indicators from Antarctica, as well as to sea-surface temperature and stratification signatures of the Southern Ocean. We think that the best explanation for the observed southern LLGM is that southern winter duration modulated Southern Ocean sea ice, which in turn influenced Southern Ocean stratification and made the surface ocean cooler. Orbitally induced cooling of the Southern Ocean provides an explanation for the LLGM in the Southern Alps having been coincident with the northern LGM. We argue further that the global effect of North Atlantic stadials led to disturbance of Southern Ocean stratification, southward shifts of the subtropical front, and retreat of Southern Alps glaciers. Collapse of Southern Ocean stratification during Heinrich Stadial-1, along with attendant sea-surface warming, triggered the onset of the Last Glacial termination in the Southern Alps of New Zealand.

We reconstructed the former ice cap of the Wind River Range, Wyoming, using a glaciological model with scaled modern temperature and precipitation inputs to examine probable climate during the local Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (or Pinedale glaciation). A key result is that temperature anomalies of - 10 °C, -8.5 °C, -6.5 °C, and -5 °C must compensate respective precipitation values of 50%, 100%, 200%, and 300% that of modern in order for the maximum glacier system to attain equilibrium. In further sensitivity tests, we find that ice-cap area and volume shrink by 75% under a climate forcing 50% modern and 50% LGM. The glacier system disappears altogether in ∼100 years when subjected to sustained modern conditions. Our results are consistent with other interpretations of western U.S. LGM climate, and demonstrate that the Wind River Ice Cap could have disintegrated rapidly during the first phase of the termination. In future work we will simulate glacier-climate evolution as constrained by emerging 10...

We have produced a global ensemble mean of the four third-generation climate reanalysis models for the years 1981&ndash, 2010. The reanalysis system models used in this study are National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim (ERA-I), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). Two gridded datasets are used as a baseline, for temperature the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), and for precipitation the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). The reanalysis ensemble mean is used here as a comparison tool of the four reanalysis members. Meteorological fields investigated within the reanalysis models include 2-m air temperature, precipitation, and 500-hPa geopotential heights. Comparing the individual reanalysis models to the ensemble mean, we find that each perform similarly over large domains but exhibit significant differences over particular regions.

Climate model results suggest that future climate change in Antarctica will be accompanied by continued strengthening and poleward contraction of the Southern Ocean westerly wind belt. Paleoclimate records suggest past changes in the westerly winds can be abrupt and that healing of the Antarctic ozone hole could lead to poleward contraction of the westerlies and increased meridional atmospheric transport of warm air regionally into Antarctica. An abrupt shift to more meridional circulation could lead to notable changes in moisture availability for extra-Antarctic regions, increased Antarctic ice sheet disintegration and more rapid sea-level rise. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Quaternary Science Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Younger Dryas Stadial (YDS; similar to 12,900-11,600 y ago) in the Northern Hemisphere is classically defined by abrupt cooling and renewed glaciation during the last glacial- interglacial transition. Although this event involved a global reorganization of atmospheric and oceanic circulation [Denton GH, Alley RB, Comer GC, Broecker WS (2005) Quat Sci Rev 24: 1159-1182], the magnitude, seasonality, and geographical footprint of YDS cooling remain unresolved and pose a challenge to our understanding of abrupt climate change. Here, we present a deglacial chronology from Scotland, immediately downwind of the North Atlantic Ocean, indicating that the Scottish ice cap disintegrated during the first half of the YDS. We suggest that stratification of the North Atlantic Ocean resulted in amplified seasonality that, paradoxically, stimulated a severe wintertime climate while promoting warming summers through solar heating of the mixed layer. This latter process drove deglaciation of downwind landmasses to completion well before the end of the YDS. This research is supported by grants from the Dan and Betty Churchill Exploration Fund and the Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) Climate Center. G.R.M.B. was supported by a LDEO postdoctoral fellowship. A.E.P. was supported by the Gary Comer Science and Education Foundation, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, and a LDEO postdoctoral fellowship. This is LDEO contribution no. 7772. peer-reviewed