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Accurate age-depth models for marine sediment cores are crucial for understanding of paleo-oceanographic and -climatic changes derived from these archives. To date, information on bulk sediment composition is largely ignored as a potential source of information to improve age-depth models. Here, we explore how bulk sediment composition can be used qualitatively to improve age-depth models. We developed the BomDia, algorithm, which produces age-depth models with realistic sediment accumulation rates that co-vary in harmony with the bulk sediment composition. We demonstrate that changes in the marine versus terrigenous sediment deposition based on bulk sediment composition, can be used to significantly improve age-depth models of hemipelagic marine deposits. Based on two marine records - each containing more than twenty radiocarbon (AMS 14C) dated levels - we show that the mean error of prediction of unused AMS 14C ages significantly improves from 3.9% using simple linear interpolation, to 2.4% (p = 0.003) when bulk sediment composition is included. The BomDia age modelling approach provides a powerful statistical tool to assess the validity of age control points used and also may assist in the detection of hiatuses. Testing and further development of the BomDia algorithm may be needed for application in other than hemipelagic depositional settings. Key Points The accuracy and predictive quality of age-depth models for marine hemipelagic cores improves when bulk sediment composition is included The BomDia algorithm produces age-depth models with realistic accumulation rates which co-vary with bulk sediment composition The Bomdia algorithm uses a Monte Carlo approach to assess age-depth model uncertainty Plain Language Summary The age-depth relationship in a marine sediment core is known as an age-depth model. To build an age-depth model, that is to produce a continuous age-depth relationship, an accurate and precise prediction of ages in between age control points is

An estimated 23 million people live on floodplains affected by potentially dangerous concentrations of toxic waste derived from past and present metal mining activity. We analyzed the global dimensions of this hazard, particularly in regard to lead, zinc, copper, and arsenic, using a georeferenced global database detailing all known metal mining sites and intact and failed tailings storage facilities. We then used process-based and empirically tested modeling to produce a global assessment of metal mining contamination in river systems and the numbers of human populations and livestock exposed. Worldwide, metal mines affect 479,200 kilometers of river channels and 164,000 square kilometers of floodplains. The number of people exposed to contamination sourced from long-term discharge of mining waste into rivers is almost 50 times greater than the number directly affected by tailings dam failures.

State-of-the-art flood hazard maps in coastal cities are often obtained from simulating coastal or pluvial events separately. This method does not account for the seasonality of flood drivers and their mutual dependence. In this article, we include the impact of these two factors in a computationally efficient probabilistic framework for flood risk calculation, using Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) as a case study. HCMC can be flooded subannually by high tide, rainfall, and storm surge events or a combination thereof during the monsoon or tropical cyclones. Using long gauge observations, we stochastically model 10,000 years of rainfall and sea level events based on their monthly distributions, dependence structure and cooccurrence rate. The impact from each stochastic event is then obtained from a damage function built from selected rainfall and sea level combinations, leading to an expected annual damage (EAD) of $1.02 B (95th annual damage percentile of $2.15 B). We find no dependence for most months and large differences in expected damage across months ($36–166 M) driven by the seasonality of rainfall and sea levels. Excluding monthly variability leads to a serious underestimation of the EAD by 72–83%. This is because high-probability flood events, which can happen multiple times during the year and are properly captured by our framework, contribute the most to the EAD. This application illustrates the potential of our framework and advocates for the inclusion of flood drivers' dynamics in coastal risk assessments., Water Resources

Rapid changes in ocean circulation and climate have been observed in marine-sediment and ice cores over the last glacial period and deglaciation, highlighting the non-linear character of the climate system and underlining the possibility of rapid climate shifts in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. To date, these rapid changes in climate and ocean circulation are still not fully explained. One obstacle hindering progress in our understanding of the interactions between past ocean circulation and climate changes is the difficulty of accurately dating marine cores. Here, we present a set of 92 marine sediment cores from the Atlantic Ocean for which we have established age-depth models that are consistent with the Greenland GICC05 ice core chronology, and computed the associated dating uncertainties, using a new deposition modeling technique. This is the first set of consistently dated marine sediment cores enabling paleoclimate scientists to evaluate leads/lags between circulation and climate changes over vast regions of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, this data set is of direct use in paleoclimate modeling studies.

The debate on “Loss and Damage” (L&D) has gained traction over the last few years. Supported by growing scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change amplifying frequency, intensity and duration of climate-related hazards as well as observed increases in climate-related impacts and risks in many regions, the “Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage” was established in 2013 and further supported through the Paris Agreement in 2015. Despite advances, the debate currently is broad, diffuse and somewhat confusing, while concepts, methods and tools, as well as directions for policy remain vague and often contested. This book, a joint effort of the Loss and Damage Network—a partnership effort by scientists and practitioners from around the globe—provides evidence-based insight into the L&D discourse by highlighting state-of-the-art research conducted across multiple disciplines, by showcasing applications in practice and by providing insight into policy contexts and salient policy options. This introductory chapter summarises key findings of the twenty-two book chapters in terms of five propositions. These propositions, each building on relevant findings linked to forward-looking suggestions for research, policy and practice, reflect the architecture of the book, whose sections proceed from setting the stage to critical issues, followed by a section on methods and tools, to chapters that provide geographic perspectives, and finally to a section that identifies potential policy options. The propositions comprise (1) Risk management can be an effective entry point for aligning perspectives and debates, if framed comprehensively, coupled with climate justice considerations and linked to established risk management and adaptation practice; (2) Attribution science is advancing rapidly and fundamental to informing actions to minimise, avert, and address losses and damages; (3) Climate change research, in addition to identifying physical/hard limits to adaptatio

Floods cause billions of dollars of damage each year1, and flood risks are expected to increase due to socio-economic development, subsidence, and climate change2–4. Implementing additional flood risk management measures can limit losses, protecting people and livelihoods5. Whilst several models have been developed to assess global-scale river-flood risk2,4,6–8, methods for evaluating flood risk management investments globally are lacking9. Here, we present a framework for assessing costs and benefits of structural flood protection measures in urban areas around the world. We demonstrate its use under different assumptions of current and future climate change and socio-economic development. Under these assumptions, investments in dykes may be economically attractive for reducing risk in large parts of the world, but not everywhere. In some regions, economically efficient investments could reduce future flood risk below today’s levels, in spite of climate change and economic growth. We also demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions and parameters. The framework can be used to identify regions where river-flood protection investments should be prioritized, or where other risk-reducing strategies should be emphasized.

Fossils of marine microorganisms such as planktic foraminifera are among the cornerstones of palaeoclimatological studies. It is often assumed that the proxies derived from their shells represent ocean conditions above the location where they were deposited. Planktic foraminifera, however, are carried by ocean currents and, depending on the life traits of the species, potentially incorporate distant ocean conditions. Here we use high-resolution ocean models to assess the footprint of planktic foraminifera and validate our method with proxy analyses from two locations. Results show that foraminifera, and thus recorded palaeoclimatic conditions, may originate from areas up to several thousands of kilometres away, reflecting an ocean state significantly different from the core site. In the eastern equatorial regions and the western boundary current extensions, the offset may reach 1.5 °C for species living for a month and 3.0 °C for longer-living species. Oceanic transport hence appears to be a crucial aspect in the interpretation of proxy signals.

Salty and warm Indian Ocean waters enter the South Atlantic via the Agulhas leakage, south of Africa. Model simulations and proxy evidence of Agulhas leakage strengthening during glacial terminations led to the hypothesis that it was an important modulator of the Atlantic Ocean circulation. Yet, the fate of the leakage salinity and temperature anomalies remains undocumented beyond the southern tip of Africa. Downstream of the leakage, new paleoceanographic evidence from the central Walvis Ridge (southeast Atlantic) shows that salinity increased at the thermocline, and less so at the surface, during glacial termination II. Thermocline salinity change coincided with higher frequency of Agulhas rings passage at the core location and with salinity maxima in the Agulhas leakage area, suggesting that leakage waters were incorporated in the Atlantic circulation through the thermocline. Hydrographic changes at the Walvis Ridge and in the leakage area display a distinct two-step structure, with a reversal at ca. 134 ka. This matched a wet interlude within the East Asia weak monsoon interval of termination II, and a short-lived North Atlantic warming. Such concurrence points to a Bølling-Allerød–like recovery of the Atlantic circulation amidst termination II, with a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Southern Hemisphere westerlies, and attendant curtailment of the interocean connection south of Africa.

How does the surface of the earth work? What is the interplay between water and air, and the continents and the sea floor? Can we understand the laws underlying this cosmos of countless revolving and clashing particles whose result we call climate? The piece in your hands originates from the preoccupation with the intimate functioning of the land and oceans, the places where we spend the vast majority of our time, and from the persuasion that to decrypt the the turbulent phenomena under our eyes the ancient affairs of the matter must lie under the magnifying glass. To glance into the old memories of this evolving planet is no job for the feeble hearted, nor for the exact mind. There is no measuring the height, the weight, the speed, the warmth of things that rest by now only in our imagination. The past is stone dead. Yet, in stone indeed, and in matter creeping towards the stony form, headstrong men have gazed and found the traces of the past, and even earnestly formulated protocols to make sense of them, to even attribute numbers to events long forgotten. These devices from a line of wayward men of knowledge I have learned to handle during three years. I have husbanded the transformation of mute substrate from underneath the sea into inaccurate and imprecise number; and I have accompanied my product to that of my fellows before and beside me, so that the communion of our scanty tiles might form a grater and more discernible image. In a process so patently akin to a legitimate form of magic, I performed the science of the past oceans. Looking now at this manuscript, and behind it at the concatenation of events of which it tells, events amidst the dark and cold sea, where nothing but Atlantic water is for hundreds of meters above and below and left and right, events in the sedimentology lab and down its sinks, events of green beaches swallowed by the relentlessly growing blue waves, events into the slender plasma torch where heat is more intense than on the surface

A maximum in the strength of Agulhas leakage has been registered at the interface between the Indian and South Atlantic oceans during glacial Termination II (T-II). This presumably transported the salt and heat necessary for maintaining the Atlantic circulation at rates similar to the present day. However, it was never shown whether these waters were effectively incorporated into the South Atlantic gyre, or whether they retroflected into the Indian and/or Southern oceans. To resolve this question, we investigate the presence of paleo Agulhas rings from a sediment core on the central Walvis Ridge, almost 1800 km farther into the Atlantic Basin than previously studied. Analysis of a 60 yr data set from the global-nested INALT01 model allows us to relate density perturbations at the depth of the thermocline to the passage of individual rings over the core site. Using this relation from the numerical model as the basis for a proxy, we generate a time series of variability of individual Globorotalia truncatulinoides delta O-18. We reveal high levels of pycnocline depth variability at the site, suggesting enhanced numbers of Agulhas rings moving into the South Atlantic Gyre around T-II. Our record closely follows the published quantifications of Agulhas leakage from the east of the Cape Basin, and thus shows that Indian Ocean waters entered the South Atlantic circulation. This provides crucial support for the view of a prominent role of the Agulhas leakage in the shift from a glacial to an interglacial mode of the Atlantic circulation.

This paper reviews multi-proxy paleoclimatic reconstructions with robust age-control derived from lacustrine, dendrochronological and geomorphological records and characterizes the main environmental changes that occurred in the Southern Pyrenees during the last millennium. Warmer and relatively arid conditions prevailed during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, ca. 900–1300 AD), with a significant development of xerophytes and Mediterranean vegetation and limited deciduous tree formations (mesophytes). The Little Ice Age (LIA, 1300–1800 AD) was generally colder and moister, with an expansion of deciduous taxa and cold-adapted montane conifers. Two major phases occurred within this period: (i) a transition MCA–LIA, characterized by fluctuating, moist conditions and relatively cold temperatures (ca. 1300 and 1600 AD); and (ii) a second period, characterized by the coldest and most humid conditions, coinciding with maximum (recent) glacier advances (ca. 1600–1800 AD). Glaciers retreated after the LIA when warmer and more arid conditions dominated, interrupted by a short-living cooling episode during the late 19th to early 20th centuries. Some records suggest a response to solar activity with colder and slightly moister conditions during solar minima. Centennial-scale hydrological fluctuations are in phase with reconstructions of NAO variability, which appears to be one of the main climate mechanisms influencing rainfall variations in the region during the last millennium, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MICINN), Organismo Autónomo Parques Naturales, Depto. de Geodinámica, Estratigrafía y Paleontología, Fac. de Ciencias Geológicas, TRUE, pub

This paper reviews multi-proxy paleoclimatic reconstructions with robust age-control derived from lacustrine, dendrochronological and geomorphological records and characterizes the main environmental changes that occurred in the Southern Pyrenees during the last millennium. Warmer and relatively arid conditions prevailed during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, ca. 900-1300 AD), with a significant development of xerophytes and Mediterranean vegetation and limited deciduous tree formations (mesophytes). The Little Ice Age (LIA, 1300-1800 AD) was generally colder and moister, with an expansion of deciduous taxa and cold-adapted montane conifers. Two major phases occurred within this period: (i) a transition MCA-LIA, characterized by fluctuating, moist conditions and relatively cold temperatures (ca. 1300 and 1600 AD); and (ii) a second period, characterized by the coldest and most humid conditions, coinciding with maximum (recent) glacier advances (ca. 1600-1800 AD). Glaciers retreated after the LIA when warmer and more arid conditions dominated, interrupted by a short-living cooling episode during the late 19th to early 20th centuries. Some records suggest a response to solar activity with colder and slightly moister conditions during solar minima. Centennial-scale hydrological fluctuations are in phase with reconstructions of NAO variability, which appears to be one of the main climate mechanisms influencing rainfall variations in the region during the last millennium. © 2012 Author(s).

During the middle and late Holocene, the Iberian Peninsula underwent large climatic and hydrologic changes, but the temporal resolution and regional distribution of available palaeoenvironmental records is still insufficient for a comprehensive assessment of the regional variability. The high sedimentation rate in karstic, meromictic Montcortès Lake (Catalan pre-Pyrenees) allows for a detailed reconstruction of the regional palaeoecology over the last 5,340 years using diatom analysis, aquatic pollen, sedimentological data, and historic documentary records. Results show marked fluctuations in diatom species assemblage composition, mainly between dominant Cyclotella taxa and small Fragilariales. We suggest that the conspicuous alternation between Cyclotella comta and C. cyclopuncta reflects changes in trophic state, while the succession of centric and pennate species most likely reflects changes in the hydrology of the lake. The diatom assemblages were used to identify six main phases: (1) high productivity and likely lower lake levels before 2350 BC, (2) lower lake levels and a strong arid phase between 2350 and 1850 BC, (3) lake level increase between 1850 and 850 BC, (4) relatively high lake level with fluctuating conditions during the Iberian and Roman Epochs (650 BC-350 AD), (5) lower lake levels, unfavourable conditions for diatom preservation, eutrophication and erosion triggered by increased human activities in the watershed during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (900-1300 AD), and (6) relatively higher lake levels during the LIA (1380-1850 AD) and afterwards. The combined study of diatoms, algae and pollen provides a detailed reconstruction of past climate, which refines understanding of regional environmental variability and interactions between climate and socio-economic conditions in the Pyrenees. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Adaptation to coastal flood risk is hampered by high uncertainty in the rate and magnitude of sea-level rise. Subsequently, adaptation decisions carry strong risks of under- or over-investment, and could lead to costly retrofitting or unnecessary high margins. To better allocate resources timely and effectively, and achieve long-term sustainability, planners could utilise adaptation pathways, revealing the path-dependencies of adaptation options. This helps to identify low-regret short-term decisions that preserve options in an uncertain future, while monitoring to detect signals to adapt. A major barrier to the application of adaptation pathways is limited experience. To facilitate this, here we generalize this pathways approach for six common coastal archetypes, resulting in generic pathways suitable to be adjusted to local conditions. This provides a much richer analysis of coastal adaptation than provided by any previous analysis, by assessing the solution space and options over time for a variety of coastal regions. Based on this analysis, we find that the number of adaptation options declines while sea-level rises. For some archetypes, it becomes clear that long-term thinking is needed now, about if, how and when to move to transformative options, such as planned retreat, which may presently not be considered or acceptable. Our analysis further shows that coastal adaptation needs to start earlier than anticipated, especially given time required for local debate and choice and to implement measures.

Against the background of potentially substantial sea-level rise, one important question is to what extent are coastal societies able to adapt? This question is often answered in the negative by referring to sinking islands and submerged megacities. Although these risks are real, the picture is incomplete because it lacks consideration of adaptation. This Perspective explores societies' abilities to adapt to twenty-first-century sea-level rise by integrating perspectives from coastal engineering, economics, finance and social sciences, and provides a comparative analysis of a set of cases that vary in terms of technological limits, economic and financial barriers to adaptation and social conflicts.