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Characterizing the temporal uncertainty in palaeoclimate records is crucial for analysing past climate change, correlating climate events between records, assessing climate periodicities, identifying potential triggers and evaluating climate model simulations. The first global compilation of speleothem isotope records by the SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) working group showed that age model uncertainties are not systematically reported in the published literature, and these are only available for a limited number of records (ca. 15 %, n = 107/691). To improve the usefulness of the SISAL database, we have (i) improved the database's spatio-temporal coverage and (ii) created new chronologies using seven different approaches for age- depth modelling. We have applied these alternative chronologies to the records from the first version of the SISAL database (SISALv1) and to new records compiled since the release of SISALv1. This paper documents the necessary changes in the structure of the SISAL database to accommodate the inclusion of the new age models and their uncertainties as well as the expansion of the database to include new records and the qualitycontrol measures applied. This paper also documents the age-depth model approaches used to calculate the new chronologies. The updated version of the SISAL database (SISALv2) contains isotopic data from 691 speleothem records from 294 cave sites and new age-depth models, including age-depth temporal uncertainties for 512 speleothems.

Reconstructing the spatio-temporal dynamics of glaciations and permafrost largely relies on surface deposits, and is therefore a challenge for every glacial older than the last due to erosion. Consequently, glaciations and permafrost remain poorly constrained worldwide before c. 30 ka. Since speleothems (carbonate cave deposits) form from drip water and generally indicate the absence of an ice sheet and permafrost, we evaluate how speleothem growth phases defined by U-series dates align with past glacial-interglacial cycles. Further, we make the first systematic comparison of the spatial distribution of speleothem dates with independent reconstructions of the history of the British-Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) to test how well geomorphologic ice reconstructions are replicated in the cave record. The frequency distribution of 1,020 U-series dates based on three different dating methods between 300 and 5 ka shows statistically significant periods of speleothem growth during the last interglacial and several interstadials during the last glacial. A pronounced decline in speleothem growth coincides with the Last Glacial Maximum, before broad reactivation during deglaciation and into the Holocene. Spatio-temporal patterns in speleothem growth between 31 and 15 ka agree well with the surface-deposit-based reconstruction of the last BIIS. In data-rich regions, such as northern England, ice dynamics are well-replicated in the cave record, which provide additional evidence about the spatio-temporal distribution of permafrost dynamics. Beyond the Last Glacial Maximum, the distribution of speleothem dates across the British Isles offers the opportunity to improve chronological constraints on past ice sheet variability, with evidence for a highly dynamic Scottish ice sheet during the last glacial. The results provide independent evidence of ice distribution complementary to studies of surface geomorphology and geology, and the potential to extend reconstructions into permafrost and earlier glacial cycles. Whilst undersampling is currently the main limitation for speleothem-based ice and permafrost reconstruction even in relatively well-sampled parts of the British Isles, we show that speleothem dates obtained using modern mass spectrometry techniques reveal a higher spatio-temporal resolution of glacial-interglacial cycles and glacial extent than previously possible. Further study of leads and lags in speleothem growth compared to surface deposition may provide new insights into landscape-scale dynamics during ice sheet growth and retreat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Murray Darling Basin contains 40% of Australia's farms and is subject to multi-year droughts that put severe pressure on southeast Australia's freshwater resources. Yet the long-term frequency, timing and potential severity of these droughts is unknown, as there are few high-resolution paleoclimate records from the basin that extend past the instrumental era. In this study, we investigate the potential of stalagmites from Careys Cave, Wee Jasper, in the Murray-Darling Basin to record past droughts. We use a multiproxy approach of stalagmite stable isotopes, trace element data, and climate reanalysis. We show that (a) stalagmite δ18O at this site likely records either local or regional precipitation amount and (b) stalagmite δ18O shows reasonable coherence with decadal-scale wet and dry changes in regional rainfall over the last 150 years, including the Federation Drought (1895–1902). Therefore, stalagmites from Wee Jasper can be used to draw regional inferences about past rainfall and have potential to extend the record of past droughts in the Murray Darling Basin beyond the limits of historical data. Extracting such a record will enable a better understanding of the causes of multi-year droughts in the region and consequently better planning, mitigation, and resilience in the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decline of the Mature Harappan period of the Harappan civilization in and around the Indus Valley between 4.3 and 3.9 kyr BP, its transition to the Late Harappan and subsequent abandonment by 3.0 kyr BP are frequently attributed to a reduction in summer monsoon rainfall associated with the 4.2 kyr event (4.26-3.97 kyr BP). Yet while the 4.2 kyr event is well documented in the Mediterranean and Middle East, its global footprint is undetermined, and its impact on monsoon rainfall largely unexplored. In this study we investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the tropical circum-Indian ocean hydroclimate in the mid to late Holocene. We conducted Monte-Carlo principal component analysis, taking into account full age uncertainty, on ten high-resolution, precisely dated paleohydroclimate records from the circum-Indian Ocean basin, all growing continuously or almost continuously between 5 and 3 kyr BP. The results indicate the dominant mode of variability in the region was a drying between 3.967 kyr BP (±0.095 kyr standard error) and 3.712 kyr BP (±0.092 kyr standard error) with dry conditions lasting for at least 300 years in some records, but a permanent change in others. We interpret PC1 and the drying event as a proxy of summer monsoon variability. A more abrupt event from 4.2 to 3.9 kyr BP is seen locally in individual records, but is often not of unusual magnitude, lacks regional coherence and is of minor importance to the principal component analysis. This result does not fit the prevailing narrative of a summer monsoon drought at the 4.2 kyr event contributing to the decline of Harappan civilisation. Instead we present the Double Drought Hypothesis. A comparison of existing Indian subcontinent paleoclimate records, modern climatology, the spatial and temporal evolution of Harappan archaeological sites, and upstream climatic variability in the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean and Middle East indicates two consecutive droughts were contributing factors in the decline of the Harappan. The first drought was an abrupt 300-year long winter rainfall drought between 4.26 and 3.97 kyr BP, associated with the 4.2 kyr event, propagated from the Mediterranean and Middle East. This led to Harappan site abandonment in the Indus valley and the end of Mature Harappan period. The second drought was a more gradual but longer lasting reduction in summer monsoon rainfall beginning 3.97 kyr BP leading to the further site abandonment at sites in Gujarat, a transition towards a more rural society, and the end of the Late Harappan. The consequences for the new mid to late Holocene Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point in a stalagmite from Meghalaya are explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The 4.2 kyr event is regarded as one of the largest and best documented abrupt climate disturbances of the Holocene. Drying across the Mediterranean and Middle East is well established and is linked to societal transitions in the Akkadian, Egyptian and Harappan civilizations. Yet the impacts of this regional drought are often extended to other regions and sometimes globally. In particular, the nature and spatial extent of the 4.2 kyr event in the tropics have not been established. Here, we present a new stalagmite stable isotope record from Anjohikely, northwest Madagascar. Growing between 5 and 2 kyr BP, stalagmite AK1 shows a hiatus between 4.32 and 3.83 kyr BP, replicating a hiatus in another stalagmite from nearby Anjohibe, and therefore indicating a significant drought around the time of the 4.2 kyr event. This result is the opposite to wet conditions at 8.2 kyr BP, suggesting fundamentally different forcing mechanisms. Elsewhere in the south-east African monsoon domain dry conditions are also recorded in sediment cores in Lake Malawi and Lake Masoko and the Taros Basin on Mauritius. However, at the peripheries of the monsoon domain, drying is not observed. At the northern (equatorial East Africa) and eastern (Rodrigues) peripheries, no notable event is record. At the southern periphery a wet event is recorded in stalagmites at Cold Air Cave and sediment cores at Lake Muzi and Mkhuze Delta. The spatial pattern is largely consistent with the modern rainfall anomaly pattern associated with weak Mozambique Channel Trough and a northerly austral summer Inter Tropical Convergence Zone position. Within age error, the observed peak climate anomalies are consistent with the 4.2kyr event. However, outside Madagascar, regional hydrological change is consistently earlier than a 4.26 kyr BP event onset. Gradual hydrological change frequently begins at 4.6 kyr BP, raising doubt as to whether any coherent regional hydrological change is merely coincident with the 4.2 kyr event rather than part of a global climatic anomaly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the past variability in African hydroclimates is important in studies into the earth's climate system, paleoanthropology and future climate change. Speleothems provide one of the highest-resolution, precisely-dated archives of past hydroclimate change. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) working group Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis (SISAL) brings speleothem records together in a single easily accessible database. The database can be used to analyse multiple datasets together rather than in isolation. This big data approach allows for better spatial analysis of past hydroclimate variability and better integration with climate models. Here we detail the progress of the Africa working group, highlighting the spatial and temporal coverage provided by the SISAL database, and providing initial analysis into past speleothem isotope variability across the continent.Speleothem deposition at the southern and northern extremities of the present day ITCZ migration appears to be more common during late Pleistocene interglacials than during glacial phases suggesting an overall increased latitudinal range of ITCZ migration or a widening of the tropical rainfall belt during interglacials. During glacial phases speleothem deposition is recorded mainly in the hemisphere that has higher summer insolation. In northwestern and southern Africa precession and eccentricity influence speleothem growth, largely through changing synoptic storm activity. Comparison of recent speleothem stable isotopes with modern isoscapes suggest speleothem d18O and d13C approximate modern precipitation d18O and vegetation d13C. We assess the spatial variability of speleothem d18O over the last 12,000 years as an example of database use. Due to restrictive bedrock geology and dry climate African speleothem records are spatially and temporally flashy, but hotspots of cave records still provide great insight into regional climatology. Continued research should combine the high-resolution snapshots they provide with other longer term, low resolution hydroclimate records already available, such as sediment cores from lakes and near shore marine environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]