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Challenging infrarenal aortic neck characteristics have been associated with an increased risk of type Ia endoleak after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR). Short apposition (< 10 mm circumferential shortest apposition length [SAL]) on the first post-operative computed tomography angiography (CTA) has been associated with type Ia endoleak. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model to predict post-operative SAL in patients with an abdominal aortic aneurysm based on the pre-operative shape. A statistical shape model was developed to obtain principal component scores. The dataset comprised patients treated by standard EVAR without complications (n = 93) enriched with patients with a late type Ia endoleak (n = 54). The infrarenal SAL was obtained from the first post-operative CTA and subsequently binarised (< 10 mm and ≥ 10 mm). The principal component scores that were statistically different between the SAL groups were used as input for five classification models, and evaluated by means of leave one out cross validation. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were determined for each classification model. Of the 147 patients, 24 patients had an infrarenal SAL < 10 mm and 123 patients had a SAL ≥ 10 mm. The gradient boosting model resulted in the highest AUC of 0.77. Using this model, 114 patients (77.6%) were correctly classified; sensitivity (< 10 mm apposition was correctly predicted) and specificity (≥ 10 mm apposition was correctly predicted) were 0.70 and 0.79 based on a threshold of 0.21, respectively. A model was developed to predict which patients undergoing EVAR will achieve sufficient graft apposition (≥ 10 mm) in the infrarenal aortic neck based on a statistical shape model of pre-operative CTA data. This model can help vascular specialists during the planning phase to accurately identify patients who are unlikely to achieve sufficient apposition after standard EVAR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Imaging surveillance following endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) is strictly recommended. This study investigates the value of endograft apposition and position relative to the aortic neck on the first postoperative computed tomography angiography (CTA) in determining patients at risk for a late type Ia endoleak (T1aEL). Materials and Methods: Patients with a T1aEL after the first postoperative CTA were selected from a consecutive database and matched with uncomplicated controls. Endograft apposition and position, including the shortest apposition length (SAL), were determined on the first postoperative CTA. The SAL is the shortest distance between the proximal endograft fabric and the first slice where circumferential apposition with the aortic wall is lost. Differences in endograft apposition at the first postoperative CTA were compared between groups. Logistic regression analysis identified independent predictors for late T1aEL. Results: A total of 32 patients with a late T1aEL were included and matched with 32 uncomplicated controls. Median follow-up after primary EVAR was 62.0 (interquartile range [IQR]: 36.8, 83.5) months in the T1aEL group compared with 47.5 (IQR: 34.0, 79.3) months in the control group; p=0.265. Median preoperative neck diameter was significantly larger in the T1aEL group than in the control group (26.6 [IQR: 24.9, 29.6] mm versus 23.4 [IQR: 22.5, 25.3] mm); p<0.001. Patients in the T1aEL group had a median SAL of 11.6 (IQR: 4.3, 20.5) mm compared with 20.7 (IQR: 13.1, 24.9) mm in the control group; p=0.002. SAL <10mm on the first postoperative CTA (odds ratio [OR]: 9.63, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.60–57.99) and larger neck diameter (OR: 1.80, 95% CI: 1.26–2.57) were independent predictors for developing a late T1aEL. Conclusion: Preoperative neck diameter and SAL on the first postoperative CTA following EVAR are important predictors for the development of a late T1aEL. Patients with a SAL of <10mm had a significantly higher risk of developing a late T1aEL. Future research should determine whether these patients would benefit from reintervention before an actual T1aEL is present. Clinical Impact: Understanding the mechanisms of endovascular aneurysm repair failure is essential to further enhance clinical outcomes. Adequate proximal sealing is necessary to foster freedom from type 1a endoleak. This study demonstrates that the shortest apposition length (SAL) at the first postoperative computed tomography angiography (CTA) is able to identify patients at risk for a late type 1a endoleak. Especially patients with a SAL <10mm are at high risk. Currently, the guidelines advice repeated imaging with CTA in patients with a seal <10mm. Future research should determine whether these patients would benefit from re-intervention before an actual type 1a endoleak is present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]