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This work focusses on extending the deep compartment model (DCM) framework to the estimation of mixed-effects. By introducing random effects, model predictions can be personalized based on drug measurements, enabling the testing of different treatment schedules on an individual basis. The performance of classical first-order (FO and FOCE) and machine learning based variational inference (VI) algorithms were compared in a simulation study. In VI, posterior distributions of the random variables are approximated using variational distributions whose parameters can be directly optimized. We found that variational approximations estimated using the path derivative gradient estimator version of VI were highly accurate. Models fit on the simulated data set using the FO and VI objective functions gave similar results, with accurate predictions of both the population parameters and covariate effects. Contrastingly, models fit using FOCE depicted erratic behaviour during optimization, and resulting parameter estimates were inaccurate. Finally, we compared the performance of the methods on two real-world data sets of haemophilia A patients who received standard half-life factor VIII concentrates during prophylactic and perioperative settings. Again, models fit using FO and VI depicted similar results, although some models fit using FO presented divergent results. Again, models fit using FOCE were unstable. In conclusion, we show that mixed-effects estimation using the DCM is feasible. VI performs conditional estimation, which might lead to more accurate results in more complex models compared to the FO method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In population pharmacokinetic (PK) models, interindividual variability is explained by implementation of covariates in the model. The widely used forward stepwise selection method is sensitive to bias, which may lead to an incorrect inclusion of covariates. Alternatives, such as the full fixed effects model, reduce this bias but are dependent on the chosen implementation of each covariate. As the correct functional forms are unknown, this may still lead to an inaccurate selection of covariates. Machine learning (ML) techniques can potentially be used to learn the optimal functional forms for implementing covariates directly from data. A recent study suggested that using ML resulted in an improved selection of influential covariates. However, how do we select the appropriate functional form for including these covariates? In this work, we use SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to infer the relationship between covariates and PK parameters from ML models. As a case‐study, we use data from 119 patients with hemophilia A receiving clotting factor VIII concentrate peri‐operatively. We fit both a random forest and a XGBoost model to predict empirical Bayes estimated clearance and central volume from a base nonlinear mixed effects model. Next, we show that SHAP reveals covariate relationships which match previous findings. In addition, we can reveal subtle effects arising from combinations of covariates difficult to obtain using other methods of covariate analysis. We conclude that the proposed method can be used to extend ML‐based covariate selection, and holds potential as a complete full model alternative to classical covariate analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nonlinear mixed effect (NLME) models are the gold standard for the analysis of patient response following drug exposure. However, these types of models are complex and time‐consuming to develop. There is great interest in the adoption of machine‐learning methods, but most implementations cannot be reliably extrapolated to treatment strategies outside of the training data. In order to solve this problem, we propose the deep compartment model (DCM), a combination of neural networks and ordinary differential equations. Using simulated datasets of different sizes, we show that our model remains accurate when training on small data sets. Furthermore, using a real‐world data set of patients with hemophilia A receiving factor VIII concentrate while undergoing surgery, we show that our model more accurately predicts a priori drug concentrations compared to a previous NLME model. In addition, we show that our model correctly describes the changing drug concentration over time. By adopting pharmacokinetic principles, the DCM allows for simulation of different treatment strategies and enables therapeutic drug monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Congenital platelet disorders (CPDs) are rare bleeding disorders that are associated with mucocutaneous bleeds. However, data on vaginal bleeding in women with CPDs are scarce. A set of generic and bleeding‐specific questionnaires were used to evaluate the prevalence of vaginal bleeding, its impact on quality of life (QoL) and sexual functioning and the consequences for pregnancy, miscarriage and delivery in a cohort of women who were referred for diagnostic evaluation for CPDs. A total of 78 women included in the study were either diagnosed with a CPD (n = 35) or were clinically suspected of a CPD (n = 43). Heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB) was reported by a large proportion of women, which mainly started at menarche. In all, 76% of women received any kind of HMB treatment, often leading to surgical prodecures. HMB was shown to have a high impact on QoL, which improved upon treatment. Even though women reported that vaginal bleeding affects sexuality, this topic is not frequently discussed with physicians. Heavy blood loss frequently occurred after miscarriage/delivery, often requiring treatment. Women with (suspected) CPDs frequently encounter HMB, negatively impacting daily life and sexual functioning. Together with peripartum bleeding, these data highlight the burden of vaginal bleeding in CPDs and importance of adequate treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]