Search

Autonomous vehicles rely on accurate trajectory prediction to inform decision-making processes related to navigation and collision avoidance. However, current trajectory prediction models show signs of overfitting, which may lead to unsafe or suboptimal behavior. To address these challenges, this paper presents a comprehensive framework that categorizes and assesses the definitions and strategies used in the literature on evaluating and improving the robustness of trajectory prediction models. This involves a detailed exploration of various approaches, including data slicing methods, perturbation techniques, model architecture changes, and post-training adjustments. In the literature, we see many promising methods for increasing robustness, which are necessary for safe and reliable autonomous driving., Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure, 1 table

The estimation of probability density functions is a fundamental problem in science and engineering. However, common methods such as kernel density estimation (KDE) have been demonstrated to lack robustness, while more complex methods have not been evaluated in multi-modal estimation problems. In this paper, we present ROME (RObust Multi-modal Estimator), a non-parametric approach for density estimation which addresses the challenge of estimating multi-modal, non-normal, and highly correlated distributions. ROME utilizes clustering to segment a multi-modal set of samples into multiple uni-modal ones and then combines simple KDE estimates obtained for individual clusters in a single multi-modal estimate. We compared our approach to state-of-the-art methods for density estimation as well as ablations of ROME, showing that it not only outperforms established methods but is also more robust to a variety of distributions. Our results demonstrate that ROME can overcome the issues of over-fitting and over-smoothing exhibited by other estimators.

Understanding traffic participants' behaviour is crucial for predicting their future trajectories, aiding in developing safe and reliable planning systems for autonomous vehicles. Integrating cognitive processes and machine learning models has shown promise in other domains but is lacking in the trajectory forecasting of multiple traffic agents in large-scale autonomous driving datasets. This work investigates the state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting model Trajectron++ which we enhance by incorporating a smoothing term in its attention module. This attention mechanism mimics human attention inspired by cognitive science research indicating limits to attention switching. We evaluate the performance of the resulting Smooth-Trajectron++ model and compare it to the original model on various benchmarks, revealing the potential of incorporating insights from human cognition into trajectory prediction models.

The development of automated vehicles has the potential to revolutionize transportation, but they are currently unable to ensure a safe and time-efficient driving style. Reliable models predicting human behavior are essential for overcoming this issue. While data-driven models are commonly used to this end, they can be vulnerable in safety-critical edge cases. This has led to an interest in models incorporating cognitive theory, but as such models are commonly developed for explanatory purposes, this approach's effectiveness in behavior prediction has remained largely untested so far. In this article, we investigate the usefulness of the \emph{Commotions} model -- a novel cognitively plausible model incorporating the latest theories of human perception, decision-making, and motor control -- for predicting human behavior in gap acceptance scenarios, which entail many important traffic interactions such as lane changes and intersections. We show that this model can compete with or even outperform well-established data-driven prediction models across several naturalistic datasets. These results demonstrate the promise of incorporating cognitive theory in behavior prediction models for automated vehicles., Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures

Accurate modelling of road user interaction has received lot of attention in recent years due to the advent of increasingly automated vehicles. To support such modelling, there is a need to complement naturalistic datasets of road user interaction with targeted, controlled study data. This paper describes a dataset collected in a simulator study conducted in the project COMMOTIONS, addressing urban driving interactions, in a state of the art moving base driving simulator. The study focused on two types of near-crash situations that can arise in urban driving interactions, and also collected data on human driver gap acceptance across a range of controlled gap sequences., Comment: 5 pages, 8 figures, 6 tables, data techincal description paper, Open Science Foundation - https://osf.io/eazg5/

Predicting the future behavior of human road users is an important aspect for the development of risk-aware autonomous vehicles. While many models have been developed towards this end, effectively capturing and predicting the variability inherent to human behavior still remains an open challenge. This paper proposes TrajFlow - a new approach for probabilistic trajectory prediction based on Normalizing Flows. We reformulate the problem of capturing distributions over trajectories into capturing distributions over abstracted trajectory features using an autoencoder, simplifying the learning task of the Normalizing Flows. TrajFlow outperforms state-of-the-art behavior prediction models in capturing full trajectory distributions in two synthetic benchmarks with known true distributions, and is competitive on the naturalistic datasets ETH/UCY, rounD, and nuScenes. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of TrajFlow in probabilistic prediction of human behavior.

Autonomous vehicles currently suffer from a time-inefficient driving style caused by uncertainty about human behavior in traffic interactions. Accurate and reliable prediction models enabling more efficient trajectory planning could make autonomous vehicles more assertive in such interactions. However, the evaluation of such models is commonly oversimplistic, ignoring the asymmetric importance of prediction errors and the heterogeneity of the datasets used for testing. We examine the potential of recasting interactions between vehicles as gap acceptance scenarios and evaluating models in this structured environment. To that end, we develop a framework aiming to facilitate the evaluation of any model, by any metric, and in any scenario. We then apply this framework to state-of-the-art prediction models, which all show themselves to be unreliable in the most safety-critical situations., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, accepted by in IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Vehicles, 2023

Finding global optima in high-dimensional optimization problems is extremely challenging since the number of function evaluations required to sufficiently explore the search space increases exponentially with its dimensionality. Furthermore, multimodal cost functions render local gradient-based search techniques ineffective. To overcome these difficulties, we propose to trim uninteresting regions of the search space where global optima are unlikely to be found by means of autoencoders, exploiting the lower intrinsic dimensionality of certain cost functions; optima are then searched over lower-dimensional latent spaces. The methodology is tested on benchmark functions and on multiple variations of a structural topology optimization problem, where we show that we can estimate this intrinsic lower dimensionality and based thereon obtain the global optimum at best or superior results compared to established optimization procedures at worst., Comment: Main text 36 pages, 6 figures, currently submitted to science advances