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Background: ED crowding has potential detrimental consequences for both patient care and staff. Advancing disposition can reduce crowding. This may be achieved by using prediction models for admission. This systematic review aims to present an overview of prediction models for admission at the ED. Furthermore, we aimed to identify the best prediction tool based on its performance, validation, calibration and clinical usability., Methods: We included observational studies published in Embase.com, Medline Ovid, Cochrane CENTRAL, Web of Science Core Collection or Google scholar, in which admission models were developed or validated in a general medical population in European EDs including the UK. We used the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) checklist to assess quality of model development. Model performance was presented as discrimination and calibration. The search was performed on 11 October 2020., Results: In total, 18 539 articles were identified. We included 11 studies, describing 16 different models, comprising the development of 9 models and 12 external validations of 11 models. The risk of bias of the development studies was considered low to medium. Discrimination, as represented by the area under the curve ranged from 0.630 to 0.878. Calibration was assessed in seven models and was strong. The best performing models are the models of Lucke et al and Cameron et al . These models combine clinical applicability, by inclusion of readily available parameters, and appropriate discrimination, calibration and validation., Conclusion: None of the models are yet implemented in EDs. Further research is needed to assess the applicability and implementation of the best performing models in the ED., Systematic Review Registration Number: PROSPERO CRD42017057975., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Serious games have the potential to teach complex cognitive skills in an engaging way, at relatively low costs. Their flexibility in use and scalability makes them an attractive learning tool, but more research is needed on the effectiveness of serious games compared to more traditional formats such e-modules. We investigated whether undergraduate medical students developed better knowledge and awareness and were more motivated after learning about patient-safety through a serious game than peers who studied the same topics using an e-module., Methods: Fourth-year medical students were randomly assigned to either a serious game that included video-lectures, biofeedback exercises and patient missions (n = 32) or an e-module, that included text-based lectures on the same topics (n = 34). A third group acted as a historical control-group without extra education (n = 37). After the intervention, which took place during the clinical introduction course, before the start of the first rotation, all students completed a knowledge test, a self-efficacy test and a motivation questionnaire. During the following 10-week clinical rotation they filled out weekly questionnaires on patient-safety awareness and stress., Results: The results showed patient safety knowledge had equally improved in the game group and e-module group compared to controls, who received no extra education. Average learning-time was 3 h for the game and 1 h for the e-module-group. The serious game was evaluated as more engaging; the e-module as more easy to use. During rotations, students in the three groups reported low and similar levels of patient-safety awareness and stress. Students who had treated patients successfully during game missions experienced higher self-efficacy and less stress during their rotation than students who treated patients unsuccessfully., Conclusions: Video-lectures (in a game) and text-based lectures (in an e-module) can be equally effective in developing knowledge on specific topics. Although serious games are strongly engaging for students and stimulate them to study longer, they do not necessarily result in better performance in patient safety issues.

Introduction: Training emergency care skills is critical for patient safety but cost intensive. Serious games have been proposed as an engaging self-directed learning tool for complex skills. The objective of this study was to compare the cognitive skills and motivation of medical residents who only used a course manual as preparation for classroom training on emergency care with residents who used an additional serious game., Methods: This was a quasi-experimental study with residents preparing for a rotation in the emergency department. The "reading" group received a course manual before classroom training; the "reading and game" group received this manual plus the game as preparation for the same training. Emergency skills were assessed before training (with residents who agreed to participate in an extra pretraining assessment), using validated competency scales and a global performance scale. We also measured motivation., Results: All groups had comparable important characteristics (eg, experience with acute care). Before training, the reading and game group felt motivated to play the game and spent more self-study time (+2.5 hours) than the reading group. Game-playing residents showed higher scores on objectively measured and self-assessed clinical competencies but equal scores on the global performance scale and were equally motivated for training, compared with the reading group. After the 2-week training, no differences between groups existed., Conclusions: After preparing training with an additional serious game, residents showed improved clinical competencies, compared with residents who only studied course material. After a 2-week training, this advantage disappeared. Future research should study the retention of game effects in blended designs., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Background: Patients who display disruptive behaviours in the clinical encounter (the so-called 'difficult patients') may negatively affect doctors' diagnostic reasoning, thereby causing diagnostic errors. The present study aimed at investigating the mechanisms underlying the negative influence of difficult patients' behaviours on doctors' diagnostic performance., Methods: A randomised experiment with 74 internal medicine residents. Doctors diagnosed eight written clinical vignettes that were exactly the same except for the patients' behaviours (either difficult or neutral). Each participant diagnosed half of the vignettes in a difficult patient version and the other half in a neutral version in a counterbalanced design. After diagnosing each vignette, participants were asked to recall the patient's clinical findings and behaviours. Main measurements were: diagnostic accuracy scores; time spent on diagnosis, and amount of information recalled from patients' clinical findings and behaviours., Results: Mean diagnostic accuracy scores (range 0-1) were significantly lower for difficult than neutral patients' vignettes (0.41 vs 0.51; p<0.01). Time spent on diagnosing was similar. Participants recalled fewer clinical findings (mean=29.82% vs mean=32.52%; p<0.001) and more behaviours (mean=25.51% vs mean=17.89%; p<0.001) from difficult than from neutral patients., Conclusions: Difficult patients' behaviours induce doctors to make diagnostic errors, apparently because doctors spend part of their mental resources on dealing with the difficult patients' behaviours, impeding adequate processing of clinical findings. Efforts should be made to increase doctors' awareness of the potential negative influence of difficult patients' behaviours on diagnostic decisions and their ability to counteract such influence., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.)

Background: Literature suggests that patients who display disruptive behaviours in the consulting room fuel negative emotions in doctors. These emotions, in turn, are said to cause diagnostic errors. Evidence substantiating this claim is however lacking. The purpose of the present experiment was to study the effect of such difficult patients' behaviours on doctors' diagnostic performance., Methods: We created six vignettes in which patients were depicted as difficult (displaying distressing behaviours) or neutral. Three clinical cases were deemed to be diagnostically simple and three deemed diagnostically complex. Sixty-three family practice residents were asked to evaluate the vignettes and make the patient's diagnosis quickly and then through deliberate reflection. In addition, amount of time needed to arrive at a diagnosis was measured. Finally, the participants rated the patient's likability., Results: Mean diagnostic accuracy scores (range 0-1) were significantly lower for difficult than for neutral patients (0.54 vs 0.64; p=0.017). Overall diagnostic accuracy was higher for simple than for complex cases. Deliberate reflection upon the case improved initial diagnostic, regardless of case complexity and of patient behaviours (0.60 vs 0.68, p=0.002). Amount of time needed to diagnose the case was similar regardless of the patient's behaviour. Finally, average likability ratings were lower for difficult than for neutral-patient cases., Conclusions: Disruptive behaviours displayed by patients seem to induce doctors to make diagnostic errors. Interestingly, the confrontation with difficult patients does however not cause the doctor to spend less time on such case. Time can therefore not be considered an intermediary between the way the patient is perceived, his or her likability and diagnostic performance., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.)

Background: Sepsis has a high mortality. Early recognition and timely treatment are essential for patient survival. The aim of this study is to examine the factors that influence the knowledge and recognition of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria and sepsis by emergency department (ED) nurses., Methods: A prospective, multi-center study including 216 ED nurses from 11 hospitals and academic medical centers in The Netherlands was conducted in 2013. A validated questionnaire was used to evaluate ED nurses' knowledge about SIRS and sepsis. Questions about demographic characteristics were also included, to investigate factors that may contribute to the knowledge about SIRS and sepsis., Results: The mean total score was 15.9 points, with a maximum possible score of 29 points. ED nurses employed at hospitals with a level 3 intensive care unit (ICU) scored significantly higher than their colleagues employed at hospitals with a level 1 or 2 ICU. Recently completed education in sepsis was associated with a higher score. The employees in low ICU level hospitals who reported recent education did not score significantly lower than their ICU level 3 colleagues. ED nurses over the age of 50 scored significantly lower than their younger colleagues., Conclusions: The knowledge of ED nurses concerning SIRS and sepsis rises proportionally with the level of ICU in hospitals. Recent education in sepsis raises knowledge level as well. We recommend that when there is a low exposure rate to SIRS and sepsis, more emphasis should be placed on regular education.

Simulation games are becoming increasingly popular in education, but more insight in their critical design features is needed. This study investigated the effects of fidelity of open patient cases in adjunct to an instructional e-module on students' cognitive skills and motivation. We set up a three-group randomized post-test-only design: a control group working on an e-module; a cases group, combining the e-module with low-fidelity text-based patient cases, and a game group, combining the e-module with a high-fidelity simulation game with the same cases. Participants completed questionnaires on cognitive load and motivation. After a 4-week study period, blinded assessors rated students' cognitive emergency care skills in two mannequin-based scenarios. In total 61 students participated and were assessed; 16 control group students, 20 cases students and 25 game students. Learning time was 2 h longer for the cases and game groups than for the control group. Acquired cognitive skills did not differ between groups. The game group experienced higher intrinsic and germane cognitive load than the cases group (p = 0.03 and 0.01) and felt more engaged (p < 0.001). Students did not profit from working on open cases (in adjunct to an e-module), which nonetheless challenged them to study longer. The e-module appeared to be very effective, while the high-fidelity game, although engaging, probably distracted students and impeded learning. Medical educators designing motivating and effective skills training for novices should align case complexity and fidelity with students' proficiency level. The relation between case-fidelity, motivation and skills development is an important field for further study.

Background: Fever is a common symptom in the emergency department(ED). Fever can be caused by bacterial infections, which are treated with antibiotics. Often, bacterial infections cannot be ruled out in the ED using standard diagnostics, and empiric antibiotic treatment is started. Procalcitonin(PCT) is a biomarker for bacterial infections, but its role in an undifferentiated ED population remains unclear. We hypothesize that PCT-guided therapy may reduce antibiotics prescription in undifferentiated febrile ED patients. The primary objectives of this study are to determine a) the efficacy, b) the safety of PCT-guided therapy, and c) the accuracy of the biomarker PCT for bacterial infections. The secondary objective is to study the cost-effectiveness of PCT-guided therapy., Methods/design: This is a multicenter noninferiority randomized controlled trial. All adult ED patients with fever(≥38.2 °C) are randomized between standard care with and without the addition of a PCT level, after written informed consent. a) For efficacy, the reduction of patients receiving antibiotics is calculated, using a superiority analysis: differences between the PCT-guided group and control group are assessed using a Fisher's exact test, and a multivariable logistic regression analysis to account for the effects of demographic and medical variables on the percentage of febrile patients receiving antibiotics. b) Safety consists of a composite endpoint, defined as mortality, intensive care admission and ED return visit within 14 days. Noninferiority of PCT will be tested using a one-sided 95 % confidence interval for the difference in the composite safety endpoint between the PCT-guided and control groups using a noninferiority margin of 7.5 %. c) Accuracy of PCT and CRP for the diagnosis of bacterial infections will be reported, using the sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve in the definitive diagnosis of bacterial infections. The sample size is 550 patients, which was calculated using a power analysis for all primary objectives. Enrollment of patients started in August 2014 and will last 2 years., Discussion: PCT may offer a more tailor-made treatment to the individual ED patient with fever. Prospective costs analyses will reveal the economic consequences of implementing PCT-guided therapy in the ED., This Trial Is Registered in the Dutch Trial Register: NTR4949.

Intentional or accidental intoxications are common in the emergency department, but are not always sufficiently recognised. When intoxication is suspected, the causative agent or combination of agents often remain unclear, making these patients a diagnostic challenge. We present here a 45-year-old woman who was admitted due to altered consciousness. The clinical presentation fitted the anticholinergic toxidrome and an intoxication with venlafaxine (her known prescribed medication) was suspected. Plasma venlafaxine concentrations, however, were very low. After 24 hours the patient recovered completely. Further testing after discharge revealed high concentrations of promethazine, confirming the suspected diagnosis. This case illustrates the importance of knowledge of toxidromes and good collaboration with the hospital pharmacist. Because of the thorough testing the patient could receive proper treatment.

Background: Capecitabine has activity against several types of cancer. In 10-15% of patients treated with capecitabine, treatment is discontinued because of serious adverse reactions, mostly within the first weeks of treatment., Case Presentation: A 56 year-old female patient presented at the emergency department after ten days of chemotherapy with progressive airway obstruction and complaints of numbness of the tongue. She also had difficulty swallowing and was unable to speak. Laboratory findings were completely normal and no co-medication was used, in particular no dopamine antagonists., Conclusion: The case highlights the need for awareness that capecitabine may potentially lead to severe life-threatening complaints of oromandibular dystonia. We hypothesize that capecitabine passed the blood brain barrier which led to a disruption within the basal ganglia in this case. Prompt treatment with an anticholinergic drug and cessation of capecitabine in the patient case led to disappearance of complaints.

Pneumomediastinum is characterized by the presence of free air in the mediastinum. This can be a sign of a severe underlying disorder that requires urgent intervention. However, pneumomediastinum is also associated with other causes that can be treated conservatively. Here, we describe three patients who presented with a primary or spontaneous pneumomediastinum and a secondary pneumomediastinum due to traumatic or iatrogenic perforation. Recognition of the underlying cause of pneumomediastinum is essential for further diagnostic studies and patient management. Unnecessary investigations and interventions, which may cause further harm to and hospitalization of the patient, can thereby be prevented.

Objective: Each year over 1.5 million health care professionals attend emergency care courses. Despite high stakes for patients and extensive resources involved, little evidence exists on the quality of assessment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of commonly used formats in assessing emergency care skills., Methods: Residents were assessed at the end of a 2-week emergency course; a subgroup was videotaped. Psychometric analyses were conducted to assess the validity and inter-rater reliability of the assessment instrument, which included a checklist, a 9-item competency scale and a global performance scale., Results: A group of 144 residents and 12 raters participated in the study; 22 residents were videotaped and re-assessed by 8 raters. The checklists showed limited validity and poor inter-rater reliability for the dimensions "correct" and "timely" (ICC = .30 and.39 resp.). The competency scale had good construct validity, consisting of a clinical and a communication subscale. The internal consistency of the (sub)scales was high (α = .93/.91/.86). The inter-rater reliability was moderate for the clinical competency subscale (.49) and the global performance scale (.50), but poor for the communication subscale (.27). A generalizability study showed that for a reliable assessment 5-13 raters are needed when using checklists, and four when using the clinical competency scale or the global performance scale., Conclusions: This study shows poor validity and reliability for assessing emergency skills with checklists but good validity and moderate reliability with clinical competency or global performance scales. Involving more raters can improve the reliability substantially. Recommendations are made to improve this high stakes skill assessment.

Unlabelled: Emergency department (ED) patients are triaged to determine the urgency of care. The Finapres Portapres (FP) measures blood pressure (BP) and cardiac output (CO) non-invasively, and may be of added value in early detection of patients at risk for hemodynamic compromise., Objectives: Compare non-invasive BP measurements using FP and standard automated sphygmomanometry. Compare FP cardiac index (CI), CO corrected for body surface area, of normotensive patients, to chart-based physician estimate of shock, to discover if there is additional value in CI measurements in triage., Methods: ED Patients requiring BP measurement in triage were included. Systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) BP were measured using both devices during a two minutes measurement. Two physicians independently judged probability of shock, defined as estimated CI ≤2.5 L min(-1) m(-2), based on chart review, three weeks after ED visit., Results: Of a total of 112 patients 97 patients were included. Pearson's correlation coefficient was 0.50 for SBP, 0.53 for DBP, with a Blant-Altman mean bias of 11.3 (upper limit 65.3, lower limit -42.8) and 7.7 (39.2, -23.7) for SBP and DBP respectively. In normotensive patients, the group with low FP CI measurements had significantly more cases with physician-estimated shock, compared to the normal to high measurements (P = .036)., Conclusions: When used as a triage device in the emergency department setting, non-invasive BP measurements using FP do not correlate well with automated sphygmomanometry. However, this study does indicate that use of the FP device in triage may aid physicians to recognize patients in early phases of shock., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Unlabelled: In this large population-based cohort study, variants in ESR2 were associated with increased risk of vertebral and incident fragility fracture in postmenopausal women. Interaction of ESR2 with ESR1 and IGF1 was determined and revealed a deleterious genetic combination that enhances the risk of osteoporotic fracture., Introduction: Osteoporosis is a complex disease with strong genetic influence, but the genes involved are ill-defined. We examined estrogen receptor beta (ESR2) polymorphisms in interaction with estrogen receptor alpha (ESR1) and insulin-like growth factor I (IGF1) variants in relation to the risk of osteoporotic fracture, BMD, and bone geometry., Materials and Methods: In the Rotterdam study, a prospective population-based cohort of elderly white individuals, we studied six single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in ESR2 (n = 6343, 60% women). We analyzed the genetic variants in the form of haplotypes reconstructed by a statistical method. Results refer to the most frequent ESR2 haplotype 1 estimated from two SNPs in intron 2 and the 3'-untranslated region (UTR). Outcomes included vertebral and incident nonvertebral fractures, BMD, and hip structural analysis (HSA). We also studied the interaction with (the most frequent) ESR1 haplotype 1 estimated from the PvuII and XbaI polymorphisms and an IGF1 promoter CA-repeat., Results: Compared with ESR2 haplotype 1 noncarriers, female homozygous carriers had a 1.8- and 1.4-fold increased risk of vertebral and fragility fractures. HSA showed that ESR2 haplotype 1 homozygote women had 2.6% thinner cortices, 1.0% increased neck width, and 4.3% higher bone instability (buckling ratios). For testing the gene interaction, we assumed a recessive model of ESR2 haplotype 1. Female homozygous carriers of ESR2 haplotype 1 and noncarriers of ESR1 haplotype 1 had a 3.5- and 1.8-fold increased risk of vertebral and fragility fractures (p(interaction) = 0.10). Such effects and interactions were stronger in women homozygous for the IGF1 192-bp allele, with 9.3-fold increased risk (p(interaction) = 0.002) for vertebral and 4.0-fold increased risk (p(interaction) = 0.01) for fragility fractures. Multilocus interaction analyses of fracture endured correction for multiple testing using Monte-Carlo simulations (p(interaction) = 0.02 for vertebral and p(interaction) = 0.03 for fragility fractures). Similar patterns of interaction were observed for BMD, cortical thickness, bone strength (section modulus), and instability (buckling ratio). In men, no such effects were observed., Conclusions: Variants of ESR2 alone and in interaction with ESR1 and IGF1 influence the risk of fracture in postmenopausal women. These findings reinforce the polygenic and complex character of osteoporosis.

Understanding the mechanisms by which estrogens affect cardiovascular disease risk, including the role of variation in the gene for estrogen receptor alpha (ESR1), may be key to new treatment strategies. We investigated whether the CC genotype at ESR1 c.454-397T>C is associated with increased risk among men. Study of more than 7000 whites in 5 cohorts from 4 countries provided evidence that genotype CC, present in roughly 20% of individuals, is a risk factor for nonfatal acute myocardial infarction (odds ratio=1.44; P<0.0001), after adjustment for established cardiovascular risk factors. After exclusion of younger subjects from 2 cohorts, because of age interaction, the odds ratio increased (to 1.63).

Objective: Postmenopausal estradiol (E(2)) levels vary widely between individuals and this variation is an important determinant of diseases such as osteoporosis. It has been suggested that the estrogen receptor alpha (ESR1) gene may influence peripheral E(2) levels, but the role of common sequence variations in the ESR1 gene is unclear., Methods: In 631 postmenopausal women and 528 men from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based, prospective cohort study of individuals aged 55 years and over, ESR1 PvuII-XbaI haplotypes were determined and correlated with plasma E2 levels., Results: In women, haplotype 1 (T-A) was significantly associated with an allele-dose-dependent decrease in E(2). After adjusting for age, body mass index, years since menopause and testosterone levels, plasma E(2) levels decreased by 1.90 pmol/l per allele copy of this haplotype (P < 0.05). Extreme genotypes, representing 23 and 27% of the population, varied by 3.93 pmol/l. No association with plasma testosterone was observed. In a subset of 446 women, no association of genotype with plasma concentrations of dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, androstenedione or estrone was seen. In men, none of the sex hormone levels was associated with the ESR1 PvuII-XbaI haplotypes., Conclusion: We have demonstrated a role for genetic variations in the ESR1 gene in determining post-menopausal E(2) levels in women.

The role of estrogens in Alzheimer's disease (AD) is controversial. We investigated the association between well-recognized, and potentially functional, polymorphisms in the estrogen receptor (ER) alpha gene and the risk of AD in a prospective study of 6056 Caucasian older men and women aged 55 years and over. In a subset of 468 participants, we assessed volumes of the hippocampus and amygdala, which have a high density of ER alpha, with brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) (1.5 T MR unit). During a total of 35 405 person-years of follow-up (mean per persons 5.8 years), 312 new cases of dementia were detected, of whom 230 were diagnosed with AD. Neither the PvuII nor the XbaI polymorphism or haplotypes thereof were associated with the risk of all-cause dementia or AD. In contrast, we found that nondemented women who carried the PvuII p allele or haplotype 'px' had smaller amygdalar volumes on MRI in an allele-dose-dependent fashion. Total amygdalar volume was 4.50 (SE 0.10) in PP genotype, 4.45 (SE 0.06) in Pp genotype, and 4.18 ml (SE 0.08) in pp genotype (P trend=0.008). Further studies are required to investigate whether this smaller amygdalar volume has functional significance.

Context: Both bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk have a strong genetic component. Estrogen receptor alpha (ESR1) is a candidate gene for osteoporosis, but previous studies of ESR1 polymorphisms in this field were hampered by small sample size, lack of standardization, and inconclusive results., Objective: To generate large-scale evidence on whether 3 common ESR1 polymorphisms (intron 1 polymorphisms XbaI [dbSNP: rs9340799] and PvuII [dbSNP: rs2234693] and promoter TA repeats microsatellite) and haplotypes thereof are associated with BMD and fractures., Design and Setting: Meta-analysis of individual-level data involving standardized genotyping of 18 917 individuals in 8 European centers., Main Outcome Measures: BMD of femoral neck and lumbar spine; all fractures and vertebral fractures by genotype., Results: No between-center heterogeneity was observed for any outcome in any genetic contrast. None of the 3 polymorphisms or haplotypes had any statistically significant effect on BMD in adjusted or unadjusted analyses, and estimated differences between genetic contrasts were 0.01 g/cm2 or less. Conversely, we found significant reductions in fracture risk. In women homozygous for the absence of an XbaI recognition site, the adjusted odds of all fractures were reduced by 19% (odds ratio, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.71-0.93]; P = .002) and vertebral fractures by 35% (odds ratio, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.49-0.87]; P = .003). Effects on fractures were independent of BMD and unaltered in adjusted analyses. No significant effects on fracture risk were seen for PvuII and TA repeats., Conclusions: ESR1 is a susceptibility gene for fractures, and XbaI determines fracture risk by mechanisms independent of BMD. Our study demonstrates the value of adequately powered studies with standardized genotyping and clinical outcomes in defining effects of common genetic variants on complex diseases.

Context: The role of estrogens in ischemic heart disease (IHD) is uncertain. Evidence suggests that genetic variations in the estrogen receptor alpha (ESR1) gene may influence IHD risk, but the role of common sequence variations in the ESR1 gene is unclear., Objective: To determine whether the ESR1 haplotype created by the c.454-397T>C (PvuII) and c.454-351A>G (XbaI) polymorphisms is associated with myocardial infarction (MI) and IHD risk., Design, Setting, and Participants: In 2617 men and 3791 postmenopausal women from The Rotterdam Study (enrollment between 1989-1993 and follow-up to January 2000), a population-based, prospective cohort study of participants aged 55 years and older, ESR1 c.454-397T>C and c.454-351A>G haplotypes were determined. Detailed interviews and physical examinations were performed, blood samples were obtained, and cardiovascular risk factors were assessed., Main Outcome Measure: The primary outcome was MI and IHD defined as MIs, revascularization procedures, and IHD mortality., Results: Approximately 29% of women and 28.2% of men were homozygous carriers of the ESR1 haplotype 1 (-397 T and -351 A) allele, 49% of women and 50% of men were heterozygous carriers, and 22% of women and 21.4% of men were noncarriers. During a mean follow-up of 7.0 years, 285 participants (115 women; 170 men) had MI, and 440 (168 women; 272 men) had an IHD event, of which 97 were fatal. After adjustment for known cardiovascular risk factors, female heterozygous carriers of haplotype 1 had an increased risk of MI (event rate, 2.8%; relative risk [RR], 2.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-4.43) compared with noncarriers (event rate, 1.3%), whereas homozygous carriers had an increased risk (event rate, 3.2%; RR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.22-5.03). For IHD events, we observed a similar association. In women, the effect of haplotype 1 on fatal IHD was larger than on nonfatal IHD. In men, the ESR1 haplotypes were not associated with an increased risk of MI (event rate, 5.7%; RR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.59-1.46 for heterozygous carriers; and event rate, 5.1%; RR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.49-1.38 for homozygous carriers) compared with noncarriers (event rate, 5.8%) and were not associated with an increased risk of IHD., Conclusions: In this population-based, prospective cohort study, postmenopausal women who carry ESR1 haplotype 1 (c.454-397 T allele and c.454-351 A allele) have an increased risk of MI and IHD, independent of known cardiovascular risk factors. In men, no association was observed.

The incidence of all non-vertebral fractures, as well as the relation to bone mineral density (BMD), was quantified in 7806 men and women from the Rotterdam Study, a prospective, population-based cohort study of men and women aged 55 years and older. In addition, the sensitivity of using a T-score at or below -2.5 for identifying subjects at risk for fractures was assessed. At baseline, between 1990 and 1993, femoral neck BMD was measured by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Subsequently, gender-specific T-scores were calculated using the NHANES reference population. During a mean follow-up of 6.8 years, information on incident non-vertebral fractures was gathered. In general, hip, wrist and upper humerus fractures are the most frequent fractures in both men and women. Femoral neck BMD appears to be an equally important risk factor in both genders, and is especially related to hip fractures. For all non-vertebral fractures, the age-adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) per standard deviation decrease in femoral neck BMD was 1.5 (1.4-1.6) for women and 1.4 (1.2-1.6) for men. For hip fractures, the hazard ratios were 2.1 (1.7-2.5) for women and 2.3 (1.6-3.3) for men. Only 44% of all non-vertebral fractures occurred in women with a T-score below -2.5; in men, this percentage was even lower (21%). Thus, there is a clear need for the development of more sensitive risk assessment tools, using not only BMD, but also other clinical predictors of fractures.

The estrogen receptor alpha gene (ESR1) is known to be involved in metabolic pathways influencing growth. We have performed two population-based association studies using three common polymorphisms within this candidate gene to determine whether these are associated with variation in adult stature. In 607 women, aged 55-80 yr, from the Rotterdam Study, the ESR1 PvuII-XbaI haplotype 1 (px) and the L allele of the TA repeat polymorphism (<18 TA repeats) were significantly associated with an allele dose-dependent decrease in height. The per allele copy of ESR1 PvuII-XbaI haplotype 1 height was 0.9 cm shorter (P trend = 0.02) and 1.0 cm/allele copy of the TA repeat L allele (P trend = 0.003). These results were independent of age, age at menarche and menopause, and lumbar spine bone mineral density and remained significant after participants with vertebral fractures were excluded. In 483 men from the Rotterdam Study we found no association with height. In 1500 pre- and perimenopausal women from the Eindhoven Study a similar association was observed; women were 0.5 cm shorter per allele copy of the ESR1 haplotype 1 (P for trend = 0.03). In conclusion, we demonstrate a role for genetic variations in the estrogen receptor alpha gene in determining adult stature in women.

This study investigates the influence of genetic variation of the estrogen receptor alpha (ESR1) gene locus on several bone parameters in 2042 individuals of The Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort study of elderly subjects. We analysed three polymorphic sites in the 5' region of the ESR1 gene; a (TA)(n)-repeat in the promoter region, and molecular haplotypes of the PvuII and XbaI RFLPs in intron 1, and inferred long-range haplotypes (LRH) thereof. We observed only three of the possible four PvuII-XbaI haplotypes in our population. A comparison with other Caucasian populations showed similar haplotype frequencies, while in Asian and African populations these were different. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis between the PvuII-XbaI haplotype and the (TA)(n) repeat showed strong LD between the two sites. Reconstruction of long range haplotypes over the entire 5' region, revealed six frequent LRH. In men, we did not observe an association between the ESR1 polymorphisms studied and bone parameters. In women, we demonstrated an allele dose effect of haplotype "px" (P=0.003) and a low number of (TA)(n) repeats (P=0.008) with decreased lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) (4.8% lower BMD in women homozygous for haplotype "px", representing 28% of the population, compared with homozygous non-carriers) and decreased vertebral bone area (2.3% difference between extreme genotypes; P=0.016). Most importantly, we found an increased vertebral fracture risk with evidence for an allele dose effect with an odds ratio of 2.2 (95%CI 1.3-3.5) for haplotype "px", and 2.0 (1.5-3.2) for a low number of (TA)(n) repeats. The ESR1 genotype dependent fracture risk is largely independent of BMD and bone area. Combination of risk alleles at both loci by long-range haplotyping improved the associations slightly, but because of the strong LD between the two polymorphic sites, we were unable to determine if any particular polymorphic site is driving the associations found. We conclude that ESR1 polymorphism in the 5' (promoter) region is associated with vertebral fracture risk, lumbar spine BMD and vertebral bone area in postmenopausal women, but not in men. The molecular mechanism underlying this association needs further study.

Age at menopause and risk of hysterectomy have strong genetic components, but the genes involved remain ill defined. We investigated whether genetic variation at the estrogen receptor (ER) gene contributes to the variability in the onset of menopause in 900 postmenopausal women, aged 55-80 yr, of the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study in The Netherlands. Gynecological information was obtained, and if women reported surgical menopause, validation of type and indication of surgery was accomplished by checking medical records. The ER genotypes (PP, Pp, and pp) were assessed by PCR using the PvuII endonuclease. Compared with women carrying the pp genotype, homozygous PP women had a 1.1-yr (P < 0.02) earlier onset of menopause. Furthermore, an allele dose effect was observed, corresponding to a 0.5-yr (P < 0.02) earlier onset of menopause per copy of the P allele. The risk of surgical menopause was 2.4 (95% confidence interval, 1.5-3.8) times higher for women carrying the PP genotype compared to those in the pp group, with the most prominent effect in women who underwent hysterectomy due to fibroids or menorrhagia. We conclude that genetic variations of the ER gene are related to the onset of natural menopause and the risk of surgical menopause, especially hysterectomy.