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3. Lessons from the Collapse of Afghanistan's Security Forces

Author

Schroden, Jonathan

Subjects
United States. Department of Defense -- Analysis, Afghanistan. National Army -- Analysis, United States. Congress -- Analysis, Military assistance, American -- Analysis, Military and naval science, Twitter (Online social network)
Abstract

Six themes emerge from a close examination of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces' (ANDSF) collapse in 2021: the ANDSF collapse was months--if not years-in the making; the United States did not give the ANDSF everything they needed to be independently successful; the ANDSF did put up a ferce fight in many areas; the ANDSF were poorly served by Afghan political leaders; the ANDSF were poorly served by their own commanders; and the Taliban strategy overwhelmed and demoralized the ANDSF. From these themes, there are three key lessons: the ANDSF's failure had many fathers; the U.S. model of security assistance requires reform; and greater emphasis on non-material factors (e.g., morale) is needed in future security force assessments., On August 15, 2021, Afghanistan's President Ashraf Ghani boarded an aircraft bound for Tajikistan, effectively abdicating his position as the country's president and cementing the Taliban's victory over his Western-backed [...]

Published
2021

4. Afghanistan's Security Forces Versus the Taliban: A Net Assessment

Author

Schroden, Jonathan

Subjects
United States. Department of Defense -- Safety and security measures, Afghanistan. National Security Forces -- Safety and security measures, United States. Senate. Committee on Armed Services -- Safety and security measures, United States. Congress -- Safety and security measures, CNA Corp. -- Safety and security measures, Clothing industry -- Safety and security measures, Military and naval science, United Nations. Office on Drugs and Crime -- Safety and security measures
Abstract

A key question for the future of Afghanistan is if the United States withdraws the remainder of its forces from the country, would Afghanistan's security forces or the Taliban be [...]

Published
2021

8. Details of the potential energy surface for the reaction Y + H2CCO: a Crossed-beams study

Author

Schroden, Jonathan J., Teo, Maurice, and Davis, H. Floyd

Subjects
Collisions (Nuclear physics) -- Research, Chemicals, plastics and rubber industries
Abstract

The reaction of ground phase Y (a(super 2)D) molecules with ketene (H2CCO) is examined at two collision energies. Four contesting processes were observed at the collision energies, corresponding to formation of YCH2, YCCO, and YCHCO with elimination of CO, H2 and H respectively.

Published
2002

11. Terrorists in Taliban-Ruled Afghanistan.

Author

Schroden, Jonathan

Subjects
TERRORIST organizations, BOMBINGS, AFGHAN War, 2001-2021, SUICIDE bombings
Abstract

The Taliban have attempted to counter ISK and possibly to temper the actions of ETIM and the TTP, while al-Qaida appears to have had a much freer hand. Such activities are exactly what the Taliban promised to prohibit when they signed the U.S.-Taliban Agreement in February 2020, which the Taliban continue to assert remains in force. In the months following the Taliban's ascendence in Afghanistan, ISK conducted a campaign of attacks against Taliban forces. The de facto asylum granted by the Taliban to thousands of members of the TTP and the Taliban's refusal to act on Pakistani demands for their expulsion are another example of regional terrorists enjoying a safe haven in Afghanistan. [Extracted from the article]

Published
2022

18. Dynamics of CO elimination from reactions of yttrium atoms with formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and acetone.

Author

Schroden, Jonathan J., Teo, Maurice, and Davis, H. Floyd

Subjects
*YTTRIUM, *ELIMINATION reactions, *FORMALDEHYDE, *ACETALDEHYDE, *ACETONE
Abstract

Reactions of neutral, ground-state yttrium atoms with formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and acetone (Y+RR'CO, where R,R' = H,CH[SUB3]) were studied in crossed molecular beams. At collision energies greater than 24 kcal/mol, four product channels were observed corresponding to elimination of CO, H[SUB2], H, and nonreactive scattering. For the dominant CO elimination channel, a large fraction (34%-41%) of the available energy appeared as kinetic energy of the products. RRKM modeling indicated this was a result of two factors: a large potential energy barrier for R' migration leading to (R)(R')YCO and dissociation of this complex prior to complete energy randomization. The CM angular distributions were all forward-backward symmetric, indicating the existence of at least one long-lived reaction intermediate. The angular distributions ranged from being quite forward-backward peaking for the Y+H[SUB2]CO reaction to isotropic for Y+(CH[SUB3])[SUB2]CO. A simple equation is derived based on statistical complex theory that relates the shape of the CM angular distributions to the structure of the dissociating complex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2002
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19. Will Afghanistan Collapse When the US Withdraws?

Author

Schroden, Jonathan

Subjects
RECONCILIATION, PATRONAGE, PUBLIC officers, ANTIAIRCRAFT missiles, GUERRILLA warfare, TRANSPORT planes
Abstract

Additionally, while the fraction of the country under government control today is similar to what it was in 1989, Ghani's government controls all of Afghanistan's major cities and the Taliban control only about 20 percent of the country (the other 50 percent is considered "contested"). Due to the extreme levels of corruption in Ghani's government, the U.S. will instead likely establish a Security Cooperation Office inside its embassy and continue providing the bulk of its assistance "off budget" (i.e., not directly to the government) with oversight by U.S. officials and various inspectors general. Both the government and the mujahideen were heavily armed: The Soviets had provided the government large numbers of airplanes, tanks and armored personnel carriers, and copious amounts of weaponry and ammunition. Meanwhile, Ghani's counter-proposal to the United States' suggested interim government and his insistence that the only path to a new government is through elections has been roundly dismissed as unworkable. [Extracted from the article]

Published
2021

20. C-C versus C-H bond activation of alkynes by early second-row transition metal atoms

Author

Hinrichs, Ryan Z., Schroden, Jonathan J., and Davis, H. Floyd

Subjects
Chemical bonds -- Analysis, Oxidation-reduction reaction -- Analysis, Transition metals -- Atomic properties, Transition metals -- Chemical properties, Chemicals, plastics and rubber industries
Abstract

Several experiments are conducted to present a comparative study of the C-C and the C-H bond activation of alkynes by the early second-row transition metal atoms. The analysis proves the fluency of the H atom migration in such systems.

Published
2008

21. Experimental and theoretical studies of the reactions of Y ([a.sup.2]D) + [H.sub.2]CO and Y ([a.sup.2]D) + [CH.sub.3]CHO

Author

Schroden, Jonathan J., Davis, H. Floyd, and Bayse, Craig A.

Subjects
Density functionals -- Analysis, Time-of-flight mass spectrometry -- Analysis, Chemicals, plastics and rubber industries
Abstract

Several experimental and theoretical studies of the reactions of Y ([a.sup.2]D) + [H.sub.2]CO and Y ([a.sup.2]D) + [CH.sub.3]CHO at a range of collision energies are conducted. All the molecular reactants are found to exhibit three different parallel channels.

Published
2007

22. Competition between C-C and C-H activation in reactions of neutral yttrium atoms with cyclopropane and propene

Author

Hinrichs, Ryan Z., Schroden, Jonathan J., and Davis, Floyd H.

Subjects
Chemical bonds -- Research, Propylene -- Research, Cyclopropane compounds -- Research, Chemicals, plastics and rubber industries
Abstract

Branching ratios between C-C and C-H bond activation were measured for reactions of ground-state Y a(super 2)D, s(super 2)d(super 1) atoms with two C3H6 isomers in crossed molecular beams. For both the isomers, cyclopropane and propene, C-C bond activation led to formation of YCH2 + C2H4, whereas C-H activation led to YC3H4 + H2 and YH2 + C3H4.

Published
2003

23. Competition between C-C and C-H activation in reactions of neutral yttrium atoms with four butene isomers

Author

Schroden, Jonathan J., Wang, Chia C., and Davis, H. Floyd

Subjects
Butylene -- Research, Isomerism -- Research, Chemicals, plastics and rubber industries
Abstract

Crossed molecular beams are used to study the reactions of neutral, ground-state Y (a(super 2)D, s(super 2)d(super 1)) with 1-butene, cis-2-butene, trans-2-butene, and isobutene. At a collision energy of 11.0 kcal/mol, only YC4H6 + H2 and nonreactive scattering were observed for all four butene isomers.

Published
2003

25. Are We Winning? A Brief History of Military Operations Assessment

Author

CNA ANALYSIS AND SOLUTIONS ARLINGTON VA, Mushen, Emily, Schroden, Jonathan, CNA ANALYSIS AND SOLUTIONS ARLINGTON VA, Mushen, Emily, and Schroden, Jonathan

Abstract

Are we winning? That simple question has proven decidedly difficult for the U.S. military to answer at various times in its history, and in recent decades has given rise to formal processes for trying to measure progress in warfare--a practice that has become known as operations assessment. Over the past decade, CNA analysts have found themselves increasingly involved in operations assessment, as has the broader military operations research community. Yet, to our knowledge, there is no comprehensive account of the history of operations assessment. This paper aims to serve as a primer on the subject to provide context on how operations assessment has grown and developed over the past several decades. We hope that it serves as a foundation and source of encouragement for a more robust history on this topic.

Published
2014

26. Were the Afghan National Security Forces Successful in 2013?

Author

CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA STRATEGIC STUDIES RESEARCH DEPT, Schroden, Jonathan, Asfura-Heim, Patricio, Norman, Catherine, Meyerle, Jerry, CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA STRATEGIC STUDIES RESEARCH DEPT, Schroden, Jonathan, Asfura-Heim, Patricio, Norman, Catherine, and Meyerle, Jerry

Abstract

CNA's Center for Stability and Development recently sent a team to Afghanistan to assess the ANSF, in support of a congressionally mandated study to determine the future requirements for the ANSF's size, structure, capabilities, and posture. We observed the ANSF first-hand and conducted hundreds of interviews of Afghan, ISAF, and U.S. officials at all levels, from national to tactical, in all of Afghanistan s regions. We came to eight major conclusions regarding the performance and capabilities of the ANSF in 2013. These empirical, independent observations, when taken together, show that the ANSF were generally successful in 2013 and performed better than most people realize.

Published
2014

27. Summary of Independent Assessment of the Afghan National Security Forces

Author

CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA, Schroden, Jonathan, Norman, Catherine, Meyerle, Jerry, Asfura-Heim, Patricio, Rosenau, Bill, Gilmore, Del, Rosen, Mark, Mak, Daniella, Hutchinson, Nicholas, Connell, Mary E, CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA, Schroden, Jonathan, Norman, Catherine, Meyerle, Jerry, Asfura-Heim, Patricio, Rosenau, Bill, Gilmore, Del, Rosen, Mark, Mak, Daniella, Hutchinson, Nicholas, and Connell, Mary E

Abstract

The 2013 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), Section 1215, directs: The Secretary of Defense shall provide for the conduct of an independent assessment of the strength, force structure, force posture, and capabilities required to make the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) capable of providing security for their own country so as to prevent Afghanistan from ever again becoming a safe haven for terrorists that threaten Afghanistan, the region, and the world. The Under Secretary of Defense (Policy) asked CNA to make this independent assessment. The Under Secretary also requested CNA make several additional assessments of related issues.1

Published
2014

28. Independent Assessment of the Afghan National Security Forces

Author

CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA, Schroden, Jonathan, Norman, Catherine, Meyerle, Jerry, Asfura-Heim, Patricio, Rosenau, Bill, Gilmore, Del, Rosen, Mark, Mak, Daniella, Hutchinson, Nicholas, Connell, Mary E, CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA, Schroden, Jonathan, Norman, Catherine, Meyerle, Jerry, Asfura-Heim, Patricio, Rosenau, Bill, Gilmore, Del, Rosen, Mark, Mak, Daniella, Hutchinson, Nicholas, and Connell, Mary E

Abstract

The 2013 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), Section 1215, directs: The Secretary of Defense shall provide for the conduct of an independent assessment of the strength, force structure, force posture, and capabilities required to make the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) capable of providing security for their own country so as to prevent Afghanistan from ever again becoming a safe haven for terrorists that threaten Afghanistan, the region, and the world. The Under Secretary of Defense (Policy) asked CNA to make this independent assessment. The Under Secretary also requested CNA make several additional assessments of related issues.

Published
2014

29. Were the Afghan National Security Forces Successful in 2013?

Author

CNA ANALYSIS AND SOLUTIONS ALEXANDRIA VA, Schroden, Jonathan, Asfura-Heim, Patricio, Norman, Catherine, Meyerle, Jerry, CNA ANALYSIS AND SOLUTIONS ALEXANDRIA VA, Schroden, Jonathan, Asfura-Heim, Patricio, Norman, Catherine, and Meyerle, Jerry

Abstract

With all of the recent developments pertaining to a possible bilateral security agreement (BSA) regarding future troop presence and military cooperation between the United States and Afghanistan, another important aspect of the future of Afghanistan has gotten much less attention. The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) just finished their first year of being fully in the lead for providing security in Afghanistan, with the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in support. With 2013 behind us, it is time to take stock of how the ANSF performed. CNA's Center for Stability and Development recently sent a team to Afghanistan to assess the ANSF, in support of a congressionally mandated study to determine the future requirements for the ANSF's size, structure, capabilities, and posture. We observed the ANSF first-hand and conducted hundreds of interviews of Afghan, ISAF, and U.S. officials at all levels, from national to tactical, in all of Afghanistan s regions. We came to eight major conclusions regarding the performance and capabilities of the ANSF in 2013. These empirical, independent observations, when taken together, show that the ANSF were generally successful in 2013 and performed better than most people realize.

Published
2014

30. Independent Assessment of the Afghan National Security Forces

Author

CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA STRATEGIC STUDIES RESEARCH DEPT, Schroden, Jonathan, Norman, Catherine, Meyerle, Jerry, Asfura-Heim, Patricio, Rosenau, Bill, Gilmore, Del, Rosen, Mark, Mak, Daniella, Hutchinson, Nicholas, Connell, Mary E, CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA STRATEGIC STUDIES RESEARCH DEPT, Schroden, Jonathan, Norman, Catherine, Meyerle, Jerry, Asfura-Heim, Patricio, Rosenau, Bill, Gilmore, Del, Rosen, Mark, Mak, Daniella, Hutchinson, Nicholas, and Connell, Mary E

Abstract

The 2013 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), Section 1215, directs: The Secretary of Defense shall provide for the conduct of an independent assessment of the strength, force structure, force posture, and capabilities required to make the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) capable of providing security for their own country so as to prevent Afghanistan from ever again becoming a safe haven for terrorists that threaten Afghanistan, the region, and the world. The Under Secretary of Defense (Policy) asked CNA to make this independent assessment. The Under Secretary also requested CNA make several additional assessments of related issues., Sponsored in part by the Under Secretary of Defense (Policy).

Published
2014

32. A Strait Comparison: Lessons Learned from the 1915 Dardanelles Campaign in the Context of a Strait of Hormuz Closure Event

Author

CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA, Schroden, Jonathan, CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA, and Schroden, Jonathan

Abstract

In 1915, the Allies attempted to force open the Dardanelles Straits in the face of an integrated Turkish and German defense (sea mines plus covering fire), using first their navy and then their army, with disastrous results. An analysis of the navy portion of this campaign identified a number of lessons at the strategic and operational levels pertaining specifically to risk assessments, strategic communications, proper strategic and operational planning, operational leadership, and operational art. These lessons were juxtaposed with a modern attempt by a belligerent such as Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, yielding a number of points to consider when thinking through the implications of a Strait of Hormuz closure as well as corresponding recommendations for U.S. policymakers, strategists, and planners.

Published
2011

42. Dynamics of H2 and C2H4 elimination in the Y + C2H6 reaction

Author

Stauffer, Hans U., Hinrichs, Ryan Z., Schroden, Jonathan J., and Davis, H. Floyd

Subjects
Chemical reaction, Rate of -- Research, Ethanes -- Research, Photoionization -- Research, Yttrium -- Research, Chemicals, plastics and rubber industries
Abstract

It has been possible to investigate the reaction between ground-state atomic yttrium and ethane in crossed molecular beams with 157 nm photoionization detection of products. Two distinct product channels are seen following reactions between ground-state yttrium atoms and ethane at high collision energies.

Published
2000

45. Reactions of Neutral Gas-PhaseYttrium Atoms with Two Cyclohexadiene Isomers.

Author

Schroden, Jonathan J. and Davis, H. Floyd

Subjects
*CHEMICAL reactions, *GAS phase reactions, *YTTRIUM, *CYCLOHEXADIENE, *ISOMERS, *MOLECULAR beams, *BRANCHING ratios
Abstract

The reactions of neutral ground-state yttrium (Y) atomswith 1,3- and 1,4-cyclohexadiene (CHD) were studied using crossedmolecular beams. Formation of YC6H6+ H2and YH2+ C6H6was observedfor both isomers at collision energies (Ecoll) of 31.3 and 13.0 kcal/mol. Measured product branching ratios at Ecoll= 31.3 kcal/mol indicated that YH2+ C6H6was the dominant channel, accountingfor >97% of the products. An additional minor product channel,YC4H4+ C2H4, was observedfor 1,3-CHD at the higher Ecoll. The reactionthreshold for YC4H4formation was determinedto be 29.5 ± 2.0 kcal/mol based on fits to the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2012
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46. Crossed beams studies of Mo(a [sup 7]S[sub 3]) and Mo[sup *](a [sup 5]S[sub 2]) collisions with CH[sub 4] and C[sub 2]H[sub 6].

Author

Hinrichs, Ryan Z., Willis, Peter A., Stauffer, Hans U., Schroden, Jonathan J., and Davis, H. Floyd

Subjects
MOLYBDENUM, MOLECULAR beams, COLLISIONS (Physics), REACTIVITY (Chemistry)
Abstract

The interactions of Mo(a [sup 7]S[sub 3]) and Mo[sup *](a [sup 5]S[sub 2]) with methane, CH[sub 4], and ethane, C[sub 2]H[sub 6], were studied under single collision conditions using the crossed molecular beams technique. Ground state Mo(a [sup 7]S[sub 3]) atoms were found to be unreactive at all collision energies studied up to 〈E[sub coll]〉=35.4 kcal/mol. Nonreactive scattering of Mo(a [sup 7]S[sub 3]) with methane and ethane was studied and compared to collisions with Ne and Ar. A forward peaking center-of-mass angular distribution, T(Θ), was necessary to simulate the elastic collisions with inert gases as well as inelastic collisions with the alkanes. At a collision energy of 14.4 kcal/mol with CH[sub 4] and 21.0 kcal/mol with C[sub 2]H[sub 6], inelastic collisions were found to transfer ∼10% and ∼19% of the initial kinetic energy into alkane internal energy, respectively. For collisions of Mo[sup *](a [sup 5]S[sub 2])+CH[sub 4], the dehydrogenation product, MoCH[sub 2], was observed at all collision energies studied down to 2.1 kcal/mol. The reaction Mo[sup *](a [sup 5]S[sub 2])+C[sub 2]H[sub 6]→MoC[sub 2]H[sub 4]+H[sub 2] was observed down to 〈E[sub coll]〉=4.5 kcal/mol. For a given total energy (electronic+translational), it was found that electronic energy is highly effective in promoting this reaction whereas translational energy is ineffective. © 2000 American Institute of Physics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2000

47. Competition between C-C and C-H Insertion in Prototype Transition Metal-Hydrocarbon Reactions.

Author

Hinrichs, Ryan Z., Schroden, Jonathan J., and Davis, H. Floyd

Subjects
*HYDROCARBONS, *TRANSITION metals
Abstract

Discusses the competition between C-C and C-H insertion in protype transition metal-hydrocarbon reactions. Internal and translational energy distributions of molecules; Potential energy barrier heights for C-C and C-H insertion by four different second-row metal atoms.

Published
2003
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49. Analyzing Afghanistan.

Author

Schroden, Jonathan

Subjects
*LETTERS to the editor, *TRUTH, *FRUIT juices
Abstract

A letter to the editor is presented in response to the articles "Truth, Lies and Afghanistan," by Daniel Davis in the February 2012 issue and "The Juice Ain't Worth the Squeeze," by Douglas Wissing in the February 23, 2012 issue.

Published
2012

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