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In the Amundsen Sea, modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) intrudes into ice shelf cavities, causing high ice shelf melting near the ice sheet grounding lines, accelerating ice flow, and controlling the pace of future Antarctic contributions to global sea level. The pathways of mCDW towards grounding lines are crucial as they directly control the heat reaching the ice. A realistic representation of mCDW circulation, however, remains challenging due to the sparsity of in-situ observations and the difficulty of ocean models to reproduce the available observations. In this study, we use an unprecedentedly high-resolution (200 m horizontal and 10 m vertical grid spacing) ocean model that resolves shelf-sea and sub-ice-shelf environments in qualitative agreement with existing observations during austral summer conditions. We demonstrate that the waters reaching the Pine Island and Thwaites grounding lines follow specific, topographically-constrained routes, all passing through a relatively small area located around 104°W and 74.3°S. The temporal and spatial variabilities of ice shelf melt rates are dominantly controlled by the sub-ice shelf ocean current. Our findings highlight the importance of accurate and high-resolution ocean bathymetry and subglacial topography for determining mCDW pathways and ice shelf melt rates.

Melting of West Antarctic ice shelves is enhanced by Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) intruding onto the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas (ABS) continental shelves. Despite existing studies of cross-shelf and on-shelf CDW transports, CDW pathways onto the ABS originating from further offshore have never been investigated. Here, we investigate CDW pathways onto the ABS using a regional ocean model. Simulated CDW tracers from a zonal section across 67°S (S04P) circulate along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and Ross Gyre (RG) and travel into ABS continental shelf after 3-5 years, but source locations are shifted westward by ~900 km along S04P in 2001-2006 compared to 2009-2014. We find that simulated on- and off-shelf CDW is ~0.1-0.2 °C warmer in the 2009-2014 case than in the 2001-2006 case together with changes in simulated ocean circulation. These differences are primarily caused by lateral, rather than surface, boundary conditions, implying that large-scale atmospheric and ocean circulations are able to control CDW pathways and thus off- and on-shelf CDW properties.

Estimating the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is critical for improving future sea level rise (SLR) projections. Numerical ice sheet models are invaluable tools for bounding Antarctic vulnerability; yet, few continental-scale projections of century-scale AIS SLR contribution exist, and those that do vary by up to an order of magnitude. This is partly because model projections of future sea level are inherently uncertain and depend largely on the model's boundary conditions and climate forcing, which themselves are unknown due to the uncertainty in the projections of future anthropogenic emissions and subsequent climate response. Here, we aim to improve the understanding of how uncertainties in model forcing and boundary conditions affect ice sheet model simulations. With use of sampling techniques embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) framework, we assess how uncertainties in snow accumulation, ocean-induced melting, ice viscosity, basal friction, bedrock elevation, and the presence of ice shelves impact continental-scale 100-year model simulations of AIS future sea level contribution. Overall, we find that AIS sea level contribution is strongly affected by grounding line retreat, which is driven by the magnitude of ice shelf basal melt rates and by variations in bedrock topography. In addition, we find that over 1.2 m of AIS global mean sea level contribution over the next century is achievable, but not likely, as it is tenable only in response to unrealistically large melt rates and continental ice shelf collapse. Regionally, we find that under our most extreme 100-year warming experiment generalized for the entire ice sheet, the Amundsen Sea sector is the most significant source of model uncertainty (1032 mm 6σ spread) and the region with the largest potential for future sea level contribution (297 mm). In contrast, under a more plausible forcing informed regionally by literature and model sensitivity studies, the Ronne basin has a greater potential for local increases in ice shelf basal melt rates. As a result, under this more likely realization, where warm waters reach the continental shelf under the Ronne ice shelf, it is the Ronne basin, particularly the Evans and Rutford ice streams, that are the greatest contributors to potential SLR (161 mm) and to simulation uncertainty (420 mm 6spread).

Enhanced submarine ice-shelf melting strongly controls ice loss in the Amundsen Sea embayment (ASE) of West Antarctica, but its magnitude is not well known in the critical grounding zones of the ASE's major glaciers. Here we directly quantify bottom ice losses along tens of kilometres with airborne radar sounding of the Dotson and Crosson ice shelves, which buttress the rapidly changing Smith, Pope and Kohler glaciers. Melting in the grounding zones is found to be much higher than steady-state levels, removing 300-490 m of solid ice between 2002 and 2009 beneath the retreating Smith Glacier. The vigorous, unbalanced melting supports the hypothesis that a significant increase in ocean heat influx into ASE sub-ice-shelf cavities took place in the mid-2000s. The synchronous but diverse evolutions of these glaciers illustrate how combinations of oceanography and topography modulate rapid submarine melting to hasten mass loss and glacier retreat from West Antarctica.

During Cook's 1772–75 Antarctic circumnavigation on the HMS Resolution , he recorded the positions of hundreds of icebergs. This paper compares Cook's observations and those of Halley in 1700, Bouvet in 1739 and Riou in 1789, with the Brigham Young University/National Ice Center (BYU/NIC) and the Alfred Wegener Institute datasets. Cook's description of the iceberg plume east of the Amery Ice Shelf and the iceberg distributions in the Weddell, Ross and Amundsen Seas agree with modern data. In January 1774, Cook reached his farthest south on the shelf of the Amundsen Sea Embayment, the site of the current International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration field study. Cook's largest iceberg had a 2.5 km diameter, where power-law models show that icebergs of this size or smaller comprise 92% of their total number. In the eastern Weddell, Cook's observation of a sea-ice tongue with a much greater extent than in satellite imagery remains unexplained. Although Riou's icebergs lie 1000 km east of the BYU/NIC trajectories, application of the England and others (2020) fracture and drift model to the trajectories removes the discrepancy and means that all the ship observations are consistent with modern observations and theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land ice discharge from the Antarctic continent into the ocean is restrained by ice shelves, floating extensions of grounded ice that buttress the glacier outflow. The ongoing thinning of these ice shelves – largely due to enhanced melting at their base in response to global warming – is known to accelerate the release of glacier meltwater into the world oceans, augmenting global sea level. Mechanisms of ocean heat intrusion under the ice base are therefore crucial to project the future of Antarctic ice shelves. Furthermore, ice shelves are weakened by the presence of kilometer-wide full-thickness ice rifts, which are observed all around Antarctica. However, their impact on ocean circulation around and below ice shelves has been largely unexplored as ocean models are commonly characterized by resolutions that are too coarse to resolve their presence. Here, we apply the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model at high resolution to investigate the sensitivity of sub-shelf ocean dynamics and ice-shelf melting to the presence of a kilometer-wide rift in proximity of the ice front. We find that (a) the rift curtails water and heat intrusion beneath the ice-shelf base and (b) the basal melting of a rifted ice shelf is on average 20 % lower than for an intact ice shelf under identical forcing. Notably, we calculate a significant reduction in melting rates of up to 30 % near the grounding line of a rifted ice shelf. We therefore posit that rifts and their impact on the sub-shelf dynamics are important to consider in order to accurately reproduce and project pathways of heat intrusion into the ice-shelf cavity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctica's floating ice shelves modulate discharge of grounded ice into the ocean by providing backstress. Ice shelf thinning and grounding line retreat have reduced this backstress, driving rapid drawdown of key unstable areas of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. If ice shelf loss continues, it may initiate irreversible glacier retreat through the marine ice sheet instability, leading to significant sea level rise. We analyze 26 years (1992–2017) of changes in satellite-derived Antarctic ice shelf thickness, flow and basal melt rates to construct a time-dependent dataset and investigate temporal variability. We found an overall pattern of thinning around Antarctica, with a thinning slowdown starting around 2008 widespread across the Amundsen, Bellingshausen and Wilkes sectors. We attribute this slowdown partly to modulation in external ocean forcing, likely altered in West Antarctica by negative feedbacks between ice shelf thinning rates and grounded ice flow, and sub-ice-shelf cavity geometry and basal melting. Our satellite-derived ice-shelf thickness and basal melt dataset uses a novel data fusion approach, state-of-the-art satellite-derived velocities, and a new surface mass balance modeling. We test the resolution capability of these data with an ice-ocean modeling experiment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]