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Ecological and laboratory studies have demonstrated that temperature modulates West Nile virus (WNV) transmission dynamics and spillover infection to humans. Here we explore whether inclusion of temperature forcing in a model depicting WNV transmission improves WNV forecast accuracy relative to a baseline model depicting WNV transmission without temperature forcing. Both models are optimized using a data assimilation method and two observed data streams: mosquito infection rates and reported human WNV cases. Each coupled model-inference framework is then used to generate retrospective ensemble forecasts of WNV for 110 outbreak years from among 12 geographically diverse United States counties. The temperature-forced model improves forecast accuracy for much of the outbreak season. From the end of July until the beginning of October, a timespan during which 70% of human cases are reported, the temperature-forced model generated forecasts of the total number of human cases over the next 3 weeks, total number of human cases over the season, the week with the highest percentage of infectious mosquitoes, and the peak percentage of infectious mosquitoes that on average increased absolute forecast accuracy 5%, 10%, 12%, and 6%, respectively, over the non-temperature forced baseline model. These results indicate that use of temperature forcing improves WNV forecast accuracy and provide further evidence that temperature influences rates of WNV transmission. The findings provide a foundation for implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal WNV outbreaks and their use as a quantitative decision support tool for public health officials and mosquito control programs.

Public health travel restrictions (PHTR) have been used by the United States to reduce the likelihood of transmission of selected communicable diseases aboard aircraft (1). US federal mechanisms used to [...]

Background The Diamond Princess cruise ship was the site of a large outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Of 437 Americans and their travel companions on the ship, 114 (26%) tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Methods We interviewed 229 American passengers and crew after disembarkation following a ship-based quarantine to identify risk factors for infection and characterize transmission onboard the ship. Results The attack rate for passengers in single-person cabins or without infected cabinmates was 18% (58/329), compared with 63% (27/43) for those sharing a cabin with an asymptomatic infected cabinmate, and 81% (25/31) for those with a symptomatic infected cabinmate. Whole genome sequences from specimens from passengers who shared cabins clustered together. Of 66 SARS-CoV-2-positive American travelers with complete symptom information, 14 (21%) were asymptomatic while on the ship. Among SARS-CoV-2-positive Americans, 10 (9%) required intensive care, of whom 7 were ≥70 years. Conclusions Our findings highlight the high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission on cruise ships. High rates of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in cabinmates of individuals with asymptomatic infections suggest that triage by symptom status in shared quarters is insufficient to halt transmission. A high rate of intensive care unit admission among older individuals complicates the prospect of future cruise travel during the pandemic, given typical cruise passenger demographics. The magnitude and severe outcomes of this outbreak were major factors contributing to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's decision to halt cruise ship travel in US waters in March 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The basis for an evidence-based recommendation is a well-conducted systematic review that synthesizes the primary literature relevant to the policy or program question of interest. In 2020, the WHO commissioned 10 systematic reviews of potential interventions in elimination or post-elimination settings to summarize their impact on malaria transmission. This paper describes the general methods used to conduct this series of systematic reviews and notes where individual reviews diverged from the common methodology. The paper also presents lessons learned from conducting the systematic reviews to make similar future efforts more efficient, standardized, and streamlined.

Malaria remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, even in low-transmission settings. With the advent of longer acting, more effective, and well-tolerated antimalarials, there is renewed interest in the efficacy of mass drug administration (MDA) to accelerate to elimination. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the efficacy of MDA to reduce the incidence and prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) and Plasmodium vivax (Pv) infection. From 1,044 articles screened, 14 articles, including 10 randomized controlled trials (RCTs), were identified. Five included data on Pf only; five included Pf and Pv. Two of the Pf studies were conducted in areas of high-moderate transmission, the remainder were in areas of low-very low transmission. In higher transmission areas, MDA reduced incidence of Pf parasitemia (rate ratio = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.40-0.92; moderate certainty) 1 to 3 months after drug administration; no significant effect of MDA on Pf parasitemia prevalence was detected 1 to 3 months post-MDA (risk ratio [RR] = 1.76, 95% CI: 0.58-5.36; low certainty). In lower transmission settings, both incidence and prevalence of Pf parasitemia were reduced 1 to 3 months post-MDA (rate ratio = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.21-0.66; RR = 0.25, 95% CI: 0.15-0.41, respectively). Pv prevalence was reduced 1 to 3 months post-MDA (RR = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.10-0.24); there were no RCTs providing data on incidence of Pv. There was no significant effect of MDA at later time points. MDA may have short-term benefits; however, there was no evidence for longer term impact, although none of the trials assessed prolonged interventions.

In September 2018, CDC identified Salmonella enterica serotype Newport (Newport) infections that were multidrug resistant (MDR), with decreased susceptibility to azithromycin, a recommended oral treatment agent. Until 2017, decreased susceptibility to azithromycin had occurred in fewer than 0.5% of Salmonella isolates from U.S. residents. This report summarizes the investigation of a multistate MDR Salmonella outbreak conducted by CDC, state and local health departments, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service. During June 2018-March 2019, 255 cases of infection with the outbreak strain were identified in 32 states; 43% of patients (89 of 206 with information on travel) reported recent travel to Mexico. Infections were linked to consumption of soft cheese obtained in Mexico and beef obtained in the United States. Consumers should avoid eating soft cheese that could be made from unpasteurized milk, regardless of the source of the cheese. When preparing beef, a food thermometer should be used to ensure that appropriate cooking temperatures are reached. When antibiotic treatment is needed for a patient, clinicians should choose antibiotics based on susceptibility testing wherever possible., Competing Interests: All authors have completed and submitted the International Committee of Medical Editors form for disclosure of potential conflicts of interest. No potential conflicts of interest were disclosed.