Search

Despite multivariate spatio-temporal counts often containing many zeroes, zero-inflated multinomial models for space-time data have not been considered. We are interested in comparing the transmission dynamics of several co-circulating infectious diseases across space and time where some can be absent for long periods. We first assume there is a baseline disease that is well-established and always present in the region. The other diseases switch between periods of presence and absence in each area through a series of coupled Markov chains, which account for long periods of disease absence, disease interactions and disease spread from neighboring areas. Since we are mainly interested in comparing the diseases, we assume the cases of the present diseases in an area jointly follow an autoregressive multinomial model. We use the multinomial model to investigate whether there are associations between certain factors, such as temperature, and differences in the transmission intensity of the diseases. Inference is performed using efficient Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on jointly sampling all presence indicators. We apply the model to spatio-temporal counts of dengue, Zika and chikungunya cases in Rio de Janeiro, during the first triple epidemic.

A symmetry-preserving analysis of strong interaction quantum field equations is used to complete a unified treatment of pion, kaon, nucleon electromagnetic and gravitational form factors. Findings include a demonstration that the pion near-core pressure is roughly twice that in the proton, so both are significantly greater than that of a neutron star; parton species separations of the nucleon's three gravitational form factors, in which, inter alia, the glue-to-quark ratio for each form factor is seen to take the same constant value, independent of momentum transfer; and a determination of proton radii orderings, with the mechanical (normal force) radius being less than the mass-energy radius, which is less than the proton charge radius. This body of predictions should prove useful in an era of anticipated experiments that will enable them to be tested., Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures, 1 table

A symmetry preserving treatment of a vector $\otimes$ vector contact interaction (SCI) is used as the basis for calculations of the two pion transverse momentum dependent parton distribution functions (TMDs); namely, that for unpolarised valence degrees-of-freedom and the analogous Boer-Mulders (BM) function. Amongst other things, the analysis enables the following themes to be addressed: the quark current mass dependence of pion TMDs; the impact of the gauge link model on the positivity constraint that bounds the BM function relative to the unpolarised TMD; the equivalence of direct diagrammatic and light-front wave function TMD calculations; and the size of the BM shift. Interpreted astutely, these SCI results enable one to draw insightful pictures of pion TMDs., Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures, 1 table

Understanding and manipulating the relationship between intentionally introduced disorder and material properties necessitates efficient characterization techniques. For example, single crystal diffuse scattering experiments provide insights into the driving forces behind local order phenomena. In this work, we present a time- and resource-efficient approach based on mean field theory, that quantifies local interaction energies but unlike other techniques does not require computationally expensive supercell models. The method is employed to quantify competing interactions in functionally disordered materials such as disordered rock salt cathode materials and Prussian blue analogs that share an underlying face-centred lattice.

Chemical evolution models predict a gradual build-up of $^{13}$C in the universe, based on empirical nuclear reaction rates and assumptions on the properties of stellar populations. However, old metal-poor stars within the Galaxy contain more $^{13}$C than is predicted, suggesting that further refinements to the models are necessary. Gas at high redshift provides important supplementary information at metallicities $-2\lesssim$ [Fe/H] $\lesssim-1$, for which there are only a few measurements in the Galaxy. We obtained new, high-quality, VLT/ESPRESSO observations of the QSO B1331+170 and used them to measure $^{12}$C/$^{13}$C in the damped Lyman-$\alpha$ system (DLA) at $z_{abs}=1.776$, with [Fe/H]=-1.27. AI-VPFIT, an Artificial Intelligence tool based on genetic algorithms and guided by a spectroscopic information criterion, was used to explore different possible kinematic structures of the carbon gas. Three hundred independent AI-VPFIT models of the absorption system were produced using pre-set $^{12}$C/$^{13}$C values, ranging from 4 to 500. Our results show that $^{12}$C/$^{13}$C$=28.5^{+51.5}_{-10.4}$, suggesting a possibility of $^{13}$C production at low metallicity., Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures. Three appendices. To appear in MNRAS

The first generation of ELT instruments includes an optical-infrared high-resolution spectrograph, indicated as ELT-HIRES and recently christened ANDES (ArmazoNes high Dispersion Echelle Spectrograph). ANDES consists of three fibre-fed spectrographs ([U]BV, RIZ, YJH) providing a spectral resolution of $\sim$100,000 with a minimum simultaneous wavelength coverage of 0.4-1.8 $\mu$m with the goal of extending it to 0.35-2.4 $\mu$m with the addition of a U arm to the BV spectrograph and a separate K band spectrograph. It operates both in seeing- and diffraction-limited conditions and the fibre feeding allows several, interchangeable observing modes including a single conjugated adaptive optics module and a small diffraction-limited integral field unit in the NIR. Modularity and fibre-feeding allow ANDES to be placed partly on the ELT Nasmyth platform and partly in the Coud\'e room. ANDES has a wide range of groundbreaking science cases spanning nearly all areas of research in astrophysics and even fundamental physics. Among the top science cases, there are the detection of biosignatures from exoplanet atmospheres, finding the fingerprints of the first generation of stars, tests on the stability of Nature's fundamental couplings, and the direct detection of the cosmic acceleration. The ANDES project is carried forward by a large international consortium, composed of 35 Institutes from 13 countries, forming a team of almost 300 scientists and engineers which include the majority of the scientific and technical expertise in the field that can be found in ESO member states., Comment: SPIE astronomical telescope and instrumentation 2024, in press

We present here the preliminary design of the RIZ module, one of the visible spectrographs of the ANDES instrument 1. It is a fiber-fed high-resolution, high-stability spectrograph. Its design follows the guidelines of successful predecessors such as HARPS and ESPRESSO. In this paper we present the status of the spectrograph at the preliminary design stage. The spectrograph will be a warm, vacuum-operated, thermally controlled and fiber-fed echelle spectrograph. Following the phase A design, the huge etendue of the telescope will be reformed in the instrument with a long slit made of smaller fibers. We discuss the system design of the spectrographs system., Comment: Paper submitted to the SPIE astronomical telescope and instrumentation 2024, conference title : Ground-based and Airborne Instrumentation for Astronomy X, paper reference number : 13096-171

Ground-based astronomy is unavoidably subject to the adverse effect of atmospheric turbulence, a.k.a. the seeing, which blurs the images and limits the achievable spatial resolution. For spectroscopic observations, it leads to slit or fiber-injection losses, since not all photons distributed over the extended seeing disk can be captured. These losses might have a very substantial impact on the overall efficiency of a spectrograph and are naturally highly variable. Assessing the fiber-injection losses requires accurate information about the image quality (IQ) delivered by the telescope to the instrument over the course of the observations, which, however, is often not directly available. ESPRESSO provides acquisition and field-stabilization images attached to the science data and thus offers the opportunity for a post-processing analysis. Here, we present a novel method to infer the IQ profile and fiber-injection losses from the integrated field-stabilization images, utilizing the spill-over light that does not get injected into the fiber. We validate these measurements against the IQ observed in the acquisition images and determine that our method delivers unbiased estimates with a scatter of 0.11" for the FWHM of the profile and 15% in terms of fiber-injection losses. This compares favorably to the estimates derived from either the differential image motion monitor (DIMM) or the telescope guide probe sensors and therefore represents a valuable tool to characterize the instrument efficiency and to correct raw spectra for fiber-injection losses., Comment: Accepted for publication with MNRAS

Quantum field theory predicts a nonlinear response of the vacuum to strong electromagnetic fields of macroscopic extent. This fundamental tenet has remained experimentally challenging and is yet to be tested in the laboratory. A particularly distinct signature of the resulting optical activity of the quantum vacuum is vacuum birefringence. This offers an excellent opportunity for a precision test of nonlinear quantum electrodynamics in an uncharted parameter regime. Recently, the operation of the high-intensity laser ReLaX provided by the Helmholtz International Beamline for Extreme Fields (HIBEF) has been inaugurated at the High Energy Density (HED) scientific instrument of the European XFEL. We make the case that this worldwide unique combination of an x-ray free-electron laser and an ultra-intense near-infrared laser together with recent advances in high-precision x-ray polarimetry, refinements of prospective discovery scenarios, and progress in their accurate theoretical modelling have set the stage for performing an actual discovery experiment of quantum vacuum nonlinearity., Comment: 34 pages, 21 figures

Spatial confounding, often regarded as a major concern in epidemiological studies, relates to the difficulty of recovering the effect of an exposure on an outcome when these variables are associated with unobserved factors. This issue is particularly challenging in spatio-temporal analyses, where it has been less explored so far. To study the effects of air pollution on mortality in Italy, we argue that a model that simultaneously accounts for spatio-temporal confounding and for the non-linear form of the effect of interest is needed. To this end, we propose a Bayesian dynamic generalized linear model, which allows for a non-linear association and for a decomposition of the exposure effect into two components. This decomposition accommodates associations with the outcome at fine and coarse temporal and spatial scales of variation. These features, when combined, allow reducing the spatio-temporal confounding bias and recovering the true shape of the association, as demonstrated through simulation studies. The results from the real-data application indicate that the exposure effect seems to have different magnitudes in different seasons, with peaks in the summer. We hypothesize that this could be due to possible interactions between the exposure variable with air temperature and unmeasured confounders., Comment: 40 pages, 11 figures

Spatio-temporal disease mapping models are commonly used to estimate the relative risk of a disease over time and across areas. For each area and time point, the disease count is modelled with a Poisson distribution whose mean is the product of an offset and the disease relative risk. This relative risk is commonly decomposed in the log scale as the sum of fixed and latent effects. The Rushworth model allows for spatio-temporal autocorrelation of the random effects. We build on the Rushworth model to accommodate and identify potentially outlying areas with respect to their disease relative risk evolution, after taking into account the fixed effects. An area may display outlying behaviour at some points in time but not all. At each time point, we assume the latent effects to be spatially structured and include scaling parameters in the precision matrix, to allow for heavy-tails. Two prior specifications are considered for the scaling parameters: one where they are independent across space and one with spatial autocorrelation. We investigate the performance of the different prior specifications of the proposed model through simulation studies and analyse the weekly evolution of the number of COVID-19 cases across the 33 boroughs of Montreal and the 96 French departments during the second wave. In Montreal, 6 boroughs are found to be potentially outlying. In France, the model with spatially structured scaling parameters identified 21 departments as potential outliers. We find that these departments tend to be close to each other and within common French regions.

Achieving a truly accurate wavelength calibration of high-dispersion echelle spectrographs is a challenging task but crucially needed for certain science cases, e.g. to test for a possible variation of the fine-structure constant in quasar spectra. One of the spectrographs best suited for this mission is VLT/ESPRESSO. Nevertheless, previous studies have identified significant discrepancies between the classical wavelength solutions and the one derived independently from the laser frequency comb. The dominant parts of these systematics were intra-order distortions, most-likely related to a deviation of the instrumental line-spread function from the assumed Gaussian shape. Here, we therefore present a study focused on a detailed modeling of the ESPRESSO instrumental line-spread function. We demonstrate that it is strongly asymmetric, non-Gaussian, different for the two slices and fibers, and varies significantly along the spectral orders. Incorporating the determined non-parametric model in the wavelength calibration process drastically improves the wavelength calibration accuracy, reducing the discrepancies between the two independent wavelength solutions from 50m/s to about 10m/s. The most striking success is, however, that the different fibers and slices now provide fully consistent measurements with a scatter of just a couple m/s. This demonstrates that the instrument-related systematics can be nearly eliminated over most of the spectral range by properly taking into account the complex shape of the instrumental line-spread function and paves the way for further optimizations of the wavelength calibration process., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS

This paper proposes a new approach to address the problem of unmeasured confounding in spatial designs. Spatial confounding occurs when some confounding variables are unobserved and not included in the model, leading to distorted inferential results about the effect of an exposure on an outcome. We show the relationship existing between the confounding bias of a non-spatial model and that of a semi-parametric model that includes a basis matrix to represent the unmeasured confounder conditional on the exposure. This relationship holds for any basis expansion, however it is shown that using the semi-parametric approach guarantees a reduction in the confounding bias only under certain circumstances, which are related to the spatial structures of the exposure and the unmeasured confounder, the type of basis expansion utilized, and the regularization mechanism. To adjust for spatial confounding, and therefore try to recover the effect of interest, we propose a Bayesian semi-parametric regression model, where an expansion matrix of principal spline basis functions is used to approximate the unobserved factor, and spike-and-slab priors are imposed on the respective expansion coefficients in order to select the most important bases. From the results of an extensive simulation study, we conclude that our proposal is able to reduce the confounding bias with respect to the non-spatial model, and it also seems more robust to bias amplification than competing approaches., Comment: 30 pages, 5 figures, 1 table

In the last two decades, the linear model of coregionalization (LMC) has been widely used to model multivariate spatial processes. From a computational standpoint, the LMC is a substantially easier model to work with than other multidimensional alternatives. Up to now, this fact has been largely overlooked in the literature. Starting from an analogy with matrix normal models, we propose a reformulation of the LMC likelihood that highlights the linear, rather than cubic, computational complexity as a function of the dimension of the response vector. Further, we describe in detail how those simplifications can be included in a Gaussian hierarchical model. In addition, we demonstrate in two examples how the disentangled version of the likelihood we derive can be exploited to improve Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based computations when conducting Bayesian inference. The first is an interwoven approach that combines samples from centered and whitened parametrizations of the latent LMC distributed random fields. The second is a sparsity-inducing method that introduces structural zeros in the coregionalization matrix in an attempt to reduce the number of parameters in a principled way. It also provides a new way to investigate the strength of the correlation among the components of the outcome vector. Both approaches come at virtually no additional cost and are shown to significantly improve MCMC performance and predictive performance respectively. We apply our methodology to a dataset comprised of air pollutant measurements in the state of California.

Given a spanning tree $T$ of a planar graph $G$, the co-tree of $T$ is the spanning tree of the dual graph $G^*$ with edge set $(E(G)-E(T))^*$. Gr\"unbaum conjectured in 1970 that every planar 3-connected graph $G$ contains a spanning tree $T$ such that both $T$ and its co-tree have maximum degree at most 3. While Gr\"unbaum's conjecture remains open, Biedl proved that there is a spanning tree $T$ such that $T$ and its co-tree have maximum degree at most 5. By using new structural insights into Schnyder woods, we prove that there is a spanning tree $T$ such that $T$ and its co-tree have maximum degree at most 4.

Primordial abundances of light elements are sensitive to the physics of the early Universe and can directly constrain cosmological quantities, such as the baryon-to-photon ratio $\eta_{10}$, the baryon density and the number of neutrino families. Deuterium is especially suited for these studies: its primordial abundance is sensitive and monotonically dependent on $\eta_{10}$, allowing an independent measurement of the cosmic baryon density that can be compared, for instance, against the Planck satellite data. The primordial deuterium abundance can be measured in high $H_I$ column density absorption systems towards distant quasars. We report here a new measurement, based on high-resolution ESPRESSO data, of the primordial $D_I$ abundance of a system at redshift $z \sim 3.572$, towards PKS1937-101. Using only ESPRESSO data, we find a D/H ratio of $2.638\pm0.128 \times 10^{-5}$, while including the available UVES data improves the precision, leading to a ratio of $2.608 \pm 0.102 \times 10^{-5}$. The results of this analysis agree with those of the most precise existing measurements. We find that the relatively low column density of this system ($\log{N_{\rm H_I}/ {\rm cm}^{-2}}\sim18 $) introduces modelling uncertainties, which become the main contributor to the error budget., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 16 pages, 10 figures and 6 tables (4 in main text, 2 in Appendix). Full model is available at the end of the manuscript

The gravitationally lensed quasar J014516.6-094517 at z=2.719 has been observed with the ESPRESSO instrument at the ESO VLT to obtain high-fidelity spectra of the two images A and B with a resolving power R=70000. At the redshifts under investigation (2.1 < z < 2.7), the Lyman forests along the two sightlines are separated by sub-kiloparsec physical distances and exhibit a strong correlation. We find that the two forests are indistinguishable at the present level of signal-to-noise ratio and do not show any global velocity shift, with the cross-correlation peaking at $\Delta v = 12 \pm 48$ m/s. The distribution of the difference in velocity of individual Lyman-$\alpha$ features is compatible with a null average and a mean absolute deviation of 930 m/s. Significant differences in NHI column density are not detected, putting a limit to the RMS fluctuation in the baryon density on $\leq 1$ proper kpc scales of $\Delta \rho / \rho < 3$%. On the other hand, metal lines show significant differences both in velocity structure and in column density. A toy model shows that the difference in velocity of the metal features between the two sightlines is compatible with the the motions of the baryonic component associated to dark matter halos of typical mass $M\simeq 2\times 10^{10} M_\odot$, also compatible with the observed incidence of the metal systems. The present observations confirm the feasibility of the Sandage test of the cosmic redshift drift with high-fidelity spectroscopy of the Lyman forest of distant, bright quasars, but also provide an element of caution about the intrinsic noise associated to the usage of metal features for the same purpose., Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, 5 tables, accepted for publication in MNRAS

Let $G$ be a 3-connected planar graph. Define the co-tree of a spanning tree $T$ of $G$ as the graph induced by the dual edges of $E(G)-E(T)$. The well-known cut-cycle duality implies that the co-tree is itself a tree. Let a $k$-tree be a spanning tree with maximum degree $k$. In 1970, Gr\"unbaum conjectured that every 3-connected planar graph contains a 3-tree whose co-tree is also a 3-tree. In 2014, Biedl showed that every such graph contains a 5-tree whose co-tree is a 5-tree. In this paper, we present an easier proof of Biedl's result

Accurately forecasting bus travel time and passenger occupancy with uncertainty is essential for both travelers and transit agencies/operators. However, existing approaches to forecasting bus travel time and passenger occupancy mainly rely on deterministic models, providing only point estimates. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian Markov regime-switching vector autoregressive model to jointly forecast both bus travel time and passenger occupancy with uncertainty. The proposed approach naturally captures the intricate interactions among adjacent buses and adapts to the multimodality and skewness of real-world bus travel time and passenger occupancy observations. We develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm to approximate the resultant joint posterior distribution of the parameter vector. With this framework, the estimation of downstream bus travel time and passenger occupancy is transformed into a multivariate time series forecasting problem conditional on partially observed outcomes. Experimental validation using real-world data demonstrates the superiority of our proposed model in terms of both predictive means and uncertainty quantification compared to the Bayesian Gaussian mixture model.

When models, e.g., for semantic segmentation, are applied to images that are vastly different from training data, the performance will drop significantly. Domain adaptation methods try to overcome this issue, but need samples from the target domain. However, this might not always be feasible for various reasons and therefore domain generalization methods are useful as they do not require any target data. We present a new diffusion-based domain extension (DIDEX) method and employ a diffusion model to generate a pseudo-target domain with diverse text prompts. In contrast to existing methods, this allows to control the style and content of the generated images and to introduce a high diversity. In a second step, we train a generalizing model by adapting towards this pseudo-target domain. We outperform previous approaches by a large margin across various datasets and architectures without using any real data. For the generalization from GTA5, we improve state-of-the-art mIoU performance by 3.8% absolute on average and for SYNTHIA by 11.8% absolute, marking a big step for the generalization performance on these benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/JNiemeijer/DIDEX, Comment: Accepted to WACV 2024

State-of-the-art 19th century spectroscopy led to the discovery of quantum mechanics, and 20th century spectroscopy led to the confirmation of quantum electrodynamics. State-of-the-art 21st century astrophysical spectrographs, especially ANDES at ESO's ELT, have another opportunity to play a key role in the search for, and characterization of, the new physics which is known to be out there, waiting to be discovered. We rely on detailed simulations and forecast techniques to discuss four important examples of this point: big bang nucleosynthesis, the evolution of the cosmic microwave background temperature, tests of the universality of physical laws, and a real-time model-independent mapping of the expansion history of the universe (also known as the redshift drift). The last two are among the flagship science drivers for the ELT. We also highlight what is required for the ESO community to be able to play a meaningful role in 2030s fundamental cosmology and show that, even if ANDES only provides null results, such `minimum guaranteed science' will be in the form of constraints on key cosmological paradigms: these are independent from, and can be competitive with, those obtained from traditional cosmological probes., Comment: 31 pages, 6 figures; submitted to Experimental Astronomy on behalf of the ANDES Science Team; v2: matches accepted version

Deformable colloids and macromolecules adsorb at interfaces, as they decrease the interfacial energy between the two media. The deformability, or softness, of these particles plays a pivotal role in the properties of the interface. In this study, we employ a comprehensive \emph{in situ} approach, combining neutron reflectometry with molecular dynamics simulations, to thoroughly examine the profound influence of softness on the structure of microgel Langmuir monolayers under compression. Lateral compression of both hard and soft microgel particle monolayers induces substantial structural alterations, leading to an amplified protrusion of the microgels into the aqueous phase. However, a critical distinction emerges: hard microgels are pushed away from the interface, in stark contrast to the soft ones, which remain steadfastly anchored to it. Concurrently, on the air-exposed side of the monolayer, lateral compression induces a flattening of the surface of the hard monolayer. This phenomenon is not observed for the soft particles as the monolayer is already extremely flat even in the absence of compression. These findings significantly advance our understanding of the pivotal role of softness on both the equilibrium phase behavior of the monolayer and its effect when soft colloids are used as stabilizers of responsive interfaces and emulsions.

The known Mega and Hyper Metal-Poor (MMP-HMP) stars with [Fe/H]<-6.0 and <-5.0, respectively, likely belong to the CEMP-no class, i.e. carbon-enhanced stars with low or absent second peak neutron capture elements. They are likely second generation stars and the few elements measurable in their atmospheres are used to infer the properties of single or very few progenitors. The high carbon abundance in the CEMP-no stars offers a unique opportunity to measure the carbon isotopic ratio, which directly monitors the presence of mixing between the He and H-burning layers either within the star or in the progenitor(s). By means of high-resolution spectra acquired with the ESPRESSO spectrograph at the VLT we aim to derive values for the 12C/13C ratio at the lowest metallicities. A spectral synthesis technique based on the SYNTHE code and on ATLAS models is used within a Markov-chain Monte Carlo methodology to derive 12C/13C in the stellar atmospheres of five of the most metal poor stars. These are the Mega Metal-Poor giant SMS J0313-6708 ([Fe/H]<-7.1), the Hyper Metal-Poor dwarf HE1327-2326 ([Fe/H]=-5.8),the Hyper Metal-Poor giant SDSS J1313-0019 ([Fe/H] = -5.0) and the Ultra Metal-Poor subgiant HE0233-0343 ([Fe/H]=-4.7). We also revise a previous value for the Mega Metal-Poor giant SMSS J1605-1443 with ([Fe/H] = -6.2). In four stars we derive an isotopic value while for HE1327-2326 we provide a lower limit. All Measurements are in the range 39<12C/13C<100 showing that the He- and H-burning layers underwent partial mixing either in the stars or, more likely, in their progenitors. This provides evidence of a primary production of 13C at the dawn of chemical evolution. [abridged], Comment: 10 pages, 6 figure, accepted A&A

In epidemiological studies, zero-inflated and hurdle models are commonly used to handle excess zeros in reported infectious disease cases. However, they can not model the persistence (from presence to presence) and reemergence (from absence to presence) of a disease separately. Covariates can sometimes have different effects on the reemergence and persistence of a disease. Recently, a zero-inflated Markov switching negative binomial model was proposed to accommodate this issue. We present a Markov switching negative binomial hurdle model as a competitor of that approach, as hurdle models are often also used as alternatives to zero-inflated models for accommodating excess zeroes. We begin the comparison by inspecting the underlying assumptions made by both models. Hurdle models assume perfect detection of the disease cases while zero-inflated models implicitly assume the case counts can be under-reported, thus we investigate when a negative binomial distribution can approximate the true distribution of reported counts. A comparison of the fit of the two types of Markov switching models is undertaken on chikungunya cases across the neighborhoods of Rio de Janeiro. We find that, among the fitted models, the Markov switching negative binomial zero-inflated model produces the best predictions and both Markov switching models produce remarkably better predictions than more traditional negative binomial hurdle and zero-inflated models.

In situ interfacial rheology and numerical simulations are used to investigate microgel monolayers in a wide range of packing fractions, $\zeta_{2D}$. The heterogeneous particle compressibility determines two flow regimes characterized by distinct master curves. To mimic the microgel architecture and reproduce experiments, an interaction potential combining a soft shoulder with the Hertzian model is introduced. In contrast to bulk conditions, the elastic moduli vary non-monotonically with $\zeta_{2D}$ at the interface, confirming long-sought predictions of reentrant behavior for Hertzian-like systems.

We consider random forests and LASSO methods for model-based small area estimation when the number of areas with sampled data is a small fraction of the total areas for which estimates are required. Abundant auxiliary information is available for the sampled areas, from the survey, and for all areas, from an exterior source, and the goal is to use auxiliary variables to predict the outcome of interest. We compare areal-level random forests and LASSO approaches to a frequentist forward variable selection approach and a Bayesian shrinkage method. Further, to measure the uncertainty of estimates obtained from random forests and the LASSO, we propose a modification of the split conformal procedure that relaxes the assumption of identically distributed data. This work is motivated by Ghanaian data available from the sixth Living Standard Survey (GLSS) and the 2010 Population and Housing Census. We estimate the areal mean household log consumption using both datasets. The outcome variable is measured only in the GLSS for 3\% of all the areas (136 out of 5019) and more than 170 potential covariates are available from both datasets. Among the four modelling methods considered, the Bayesian shrinkage performed the best in terms of bias, MSE and prediction interval coverages and scores, as assessed through a cross-validation study. We find substantial between-area variation, the log consumption areal point estimates showing a 1.3-fold variation across the GAMA region. The western areas are the poorest while the Accra Metropolitan Area district gathers the richest areas., Comment: 40 pages, 10 figures

Using a reaction model that incorporates pion bound state effects and continuum results for proton parton distributions and the pion distribution amplitude, $\varphi_\pi$, we deliver parameter-free predictions for the $\mu^+$ angular distributions in $\pi N \to \mu^+ \mu^- X$ reactions on both unpolarised and polarised targets. The analysis indicates that such angular distributions are sensitive to the pointwise form of $\varphi_\pi$ and suggests that unpolarised targets are practically more favourable. The precision of extant data is insufficient for use in charting $\varphi_\pi$; hence, practical tests of this approach to charting $\varphi_\pi$ must await data with improved precision from new-generation experiments. The reaction model yields a nonzero single-spin azimuthal asymmetry, without reference to $T$-odd parton distribution functions (DFs). This may necessitate additional care when attempting to extract such $T$-odd DFs from data., Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures

Astronomical precision spectroscopy underpins searches for life beyond Earth, direct observation of the expanding Universe and constraining the potential variability of physical constants across cosmological scales. Laser frequency combs can provide the critically required accurate and precise calibration to the astronomical spectrographs. For cosmological studies, extending the calibration with such astrocombs to the ultraviolet spectral range is highly desirable, however, strong material dispersion and large spectral separation from the established infrared laser oscillators have made this exceedingly challenging. Here, we demonstrate for the first time astronomical spectrograph calibrations with an astrocomb in the ultraviolet spectral range below 400 nm. This is accomplished via chip-integrated highly nonlinear photonics in periodically-poled, nano-fabricated lithium niobate waveguides in conjunction with a robust infrared electro-optic comb generator, as well as a chip-integrated microresonator comb. These results demonstrate a viable route towards astronomical precision spectroscopy in the ultraviolet and may contribute to unlocking the full potential of next generation ground- and future space-based astronomical instruments.

This document presents the initial scientific case for upgrading the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab (JLab) to 22 GeV. It is the result of a community effort, incorporating insights from a series of workshops conducted between March 2022 and April 2023. With a track record of over 25 years in delivering the world's most intense and precise multi-GeV electron beams, CEBAF's potential for a higher energy upgrade presents a unique opportunity for an innovative nuclear physics program, which seamlessly integrates a rich historical background with a promising future. The proposed physics program encompass a diverse range of investigations centered around the nonperturbative dynamics inherent in hadron structure and the exploration of strongly interacting systems. It builds upon the exceptional capabilities of CEBAF in high-luminosity operations, the availability of existing or planned Hall equipment, and recent advancements in accelerator technology. The proposed program cover various scientific topics, including Hadron Spectroscopy, Partonic Structure and Spin, Hadronization and Transverse Momentum, Spatial Structure, Mechanical Properties, Form Factors and Emergent Hadron Mass, Hadron-Quark Transition, and Nuclear Dynamics at Extreme Conditions, as well as QCD Confinement and Fundamental Symmetries. Each topic highlights the key measurements achievable at a 22 GeV CEBAF accelerator. Furthermore, this document outlines the significant physics outcomes and unique aspects of these programs that distinguish them from other existing or planned facilities. In summary, this document provides an exciting rationale for the energy upgrade of CEBAF to 22 GeV, outlining the transformative scientific potential that lies within reach, and the remarkable opportunities it offers for advancing our understanding of hadron physics and related fundamental phenomena., Comment: Updates to the list of authors; Preprint number changed from theory to experiment; Updates to sections 4 and 6, including additional figures