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1. Raising Bidders' Awareness in Second-Price Auctions

Author

Li, Ying Xue and Schipper, Burkhard C.

Subjects
Economics - Theoretical Economics, Computer Science - Computer Science and Game Theory
Abstract

When bidders bid on complex objects, they might be unaware of characteristics effecting their valuations. We assume that each buyer's valuation is a sum of independent random variables, one for each characteristic. When a bidder is unaware of a characteristic, he omits the random variable from the sum. We study the seller's decision to raise bidders' awareness of characteristics before a second-price auction with entry fees. Optimal entry fees capture an additional unawareness rent due to unaware bidders misperceiving their probability of winning and the price to be paid upon winning. When raising a bidder's individual awareness of a characteristic with positive expected value, the seller faces a trade-off between positive effects on the expected first order statistic and unawareness rents of remaining unaware bidders on one hand and the loss of the unawareness rent from the newly aware bidder on the other. We present characterization results on raising public awareness together with no versus full information. We discuss the winner's curse due to unawareness of characteristics., Comment: 29 pages

Published
2024

2. Pan‐Cancer Survival Impact of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in a National Healthcare System

Author

Miller, Sean R, Schipper, Matthew, Fritsche, Lars G, Jiang, Ralph, Strohbehn, Garth, Ötleş, Erkin, McMahon, Benjamin H, Crivelli, Silvia, Zamora‐Resendiz, Rafael, Ramnath, Nithya, Yoo, Shinjae, Dai, Xin, Sankar, Kamya, Edwards, Donna M, Allen, Steven G, Green, Michael D, and Bryant, Alex K

Subjects
Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Oncology and Carcinogenesis, Immunology, Cancer, 7.1 Individual care needs, Good Health and Well Being, Humans, Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors, Male, Female, Aged, Neoplasms, Middle Aged, United States, United States Department of Veterans Affairs, Aged, 80 and over, check point control, clinical cancer research, clinical observations, immune checkpoint inhibitors, Biochemistry and Cell Biology, Oncology and carcinogenesis
Abstract

BackgroundThe cumulative, health system-wide survival benefit of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) is unclear, particularly among real-world patients with limited life expectancies and among subgroups poorly represented on clinical trials. We sought to determine the health system-wide survival impact of ICIs.MethodsWe identified all patients receiving PD-1/PD-L1 or CTLA-4 inhibitors from 2010 to 2023 in the national Veterans Health Administration (VHA) system (ICI cohort) and all patients who received non-ICI systemic therapy in the years before ICI approval (historical control). ICI and historical control cohorts were matched on multiple cancer-related prognostic factors, comorbidities, and demographics. The effect of ICI on overall survival was quantified with Cox regression incorporating matching weights. Cumulative life-years gained system-wide were calculated from the difference in adjusted 5-year restricted mean survival times.ResultsThere were 27,322 patients in the ICI cohort and 69,801 patients in the historical control cohort. Among ICI patients, the most common cancer types were NSCLC (46%) and melanoma (10%). ICI demonstrated a large OS benefit in most cancer types with heterogeneity across cancer types (NSCLC: adjusted HR [aHR] 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-0.58, p

Published
2024

3. Kontsevich graphs act on Nambu-Poisson brackets, I. New identities for Jacobian determinants

Author

Kiselev, Arthemy V., Brown, Mollie S. Jagoe, and Schipper, Floor

Subjects
Mathematics - Quantum Algebra, Mathematical Physics, Mathematics - Symplectic Geometry, 53D55, 53D17, 05C22, 17B63, 17B70, 68R10
Abstract

Nambu-determinant brackets on $R^d\ni x=(x^1,...,x^d)$, $\{f,g\}_d(x)=\rho(x) \det(\partial(f,g,a_1,...,a_{d-2})/\partial(x^1,...,x^d))$, with $a_i\in C^\infty(R^d)$ and $\rho\partial_x\in\mathfrak{X}^d(R^d)$, are a class of Poisson structures with (non)linear coefficients, e.g., polynomials of arbitrarily high degree. With good cocycles in the graph complex, Kontsevich associated universal -- for all Poisson bivectors $P$ on affine $R^d_{aff}$ -- elements $\dot{P}=Q^\gamma(P)\in H^2_{P}(R^d_{aff})$ in the Lichnerowicz-Poisson second cohomology groups; we note that known graph cocycles $\gamma$ preserve the Nambu-Poisson class $\{P(\rho,a)\}$, and we express, directly from $\gamma$, the evolution $\dot{\rho}$,$\dot{a}$ that induces $\dot{P}$. Over all $d\geq2$ at once, there is no universal mechanism for the bivector cocycles $Q^\gamma_d$ to be trivial, $Q^\gamma_d=[\![P,\vec{X}^\gamma_d(P)]\!]$, w.r.t. vector fields defined uniformly for all dimensions $d$ by the same graph formula. While over $R^2$, the graph flows $\dot{P} = Q^{\gamma_i}_{2D}(P(\rho))$ for $\gamma\in\{\gamma_3,\gamma_5,\gamma_7,...\}$ are trivialized by vector fields $\vec{X}^{\gamma_i}_{2D}=(dx\wedge dy)^{-1}d_{dR}(Ham^{\gamma_i}(P))$ of peculiar shape, we detect that in $d\geq3$, the 1-vectors from 2D, now with $P(\rho,a_1,...,a_{d-2})$ inside, do not solve the problems $Q^{\gamma_i}_{d\geq3}=[\![P,{\vec{X}^{\gamma_i}_{d\geq3}}(P(\rho,a))]\!]$, yet they do yield good Ansatz where we find solutions $\vec{X}^{\gamma_i}_{d=3,4}(P(\rho,a))$. In the study of the step $d\mapsto d+1$, by adapting the Kontsevich graph calculus to the Nambu-Poisson class of brackets, we discover more identities for the Jacobian determinants within $P(\rho,a)$, i.e. for multivector-valued $GL(d)$-invariants on $R^d_{aff}$., Comment: Plenary talk given by AVK at the international conference on Integrable Systems and Quantum Symmetries (ISQS28) held on 1-5 July 2024 at CVUT Prague, Czech Republic; 13 pages, 1 table; followed by papers II. (arXiv:2409.12555 [math.QA]) and III. (arXiv:2409.15932 [math.QA]) by the same authors

Published
2024
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4. Kontsevich graphs act on Nambu-Poisson brackets, III. Uniqueness aspects

Author

Schipper, Floor, Brown, Mollie S Jagoe, and Kiselev, Arthemy V

Subjects
Mathematics - Quantum Algebra, 53D55, 17B63, 05C22, 68R10, 53D17
Abstract

Kontsevich constructed a map between `good' graph cocycles $\gamma$ and infinitesimal deformations of Poisson bivectors on affine manifolds, that is, Poisson cocycles in the second Lichnerowicz--Poisson cohomology. For the tetrahedral graph cocycle $\gamma_3$ and for the class of Nambu-determinant Poisson bivectors $P$ over $\mathbb{R}^2$, $\mathbb{R}^3$ and $\mathbb{R}^4$, we know the fact of trivialization, $\dot{P}=[[ P, \vec{X}^{\gamma_3}_{\text{dim}}]]$, by using dimension-dependent vector fields $\vec{X}^{\gamma_3}_{\text{dim}}$ expressed by Kontsevich (micro-) graphs. We establish that these trivializing vector fields $\vec{X}^{\gamma_3}_{\text{dim}}$ are unique modulo Hamiltonian vector fields $\vec{X}_{H}=d_P(H)= [[ P, H]]$, where $d_P$ is the Lichnerowicz--Poisson differential and where the Hamiltonians $H$ are also represented by Kontsevich (micro-)graphs. However, we find that the choice of Kontsevich (micro-)graphs to represent the aforementioned multivectors is not unique.

Published
2024
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5. Kontsevich graphs act on Nambu--Poisson brackets, II. The tetrahedral flow is a coboundary in 4D

Author

Brown, Mollie S. Jagoe, Schipper, Floor, and Kiselev, Arthemy V.

Subjects
Mathematics - Quantum Algebra, 53D55, 17B63, 05C22, 68R10, 53D17
Abstract

Kontsevich constructed a map from suitable cocycles in the graph complex to infinitesimal deformations of Poisson bi-vector fields. Under the deformations, the bi-vector fields remain Poisson. We ask, are these deformations trivial, meaning, do they amount to a change of coordinates along a vector field? We examine this question for the tetrahedron, the smallest nontrivial suitable graph cocycle in the Kontsevich graph complex, and for the class of Nambu--Poisson brackets on $\mathbb{R}^d$. Within Kontsevich's graph calculus, we use dimension-specific micro-graphs, in which each vertex represents an ingredient of the Nambu--Poisson bracket. For the tetrahedron, Kontsevich knew that the deformation is trivial for $d = 2$ (1996). In 2020, Buring and the third author found that the deformation is trivial for $d = 3$. Building on these discoveries, we now establish that the deformation is trivial for $d = 4$.

Published
2024
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6. Climate, food and humans predict communities of mammals in the United States

Author

Kays, Roland, Snider, Matthew H., Hess, George, Cove, Michael V., Jensen, Alex, Shamon, Hila, McShea, William J., Rooney, Brigit, Allen, Maximilian L., Pekins, Charles E., Wilmers, Christopher C., Pendergast, Mary E., Green, Austin M., Suraci, Justin, Leslie, Matthew S., Nasrallah, Sophie, Farkas, Dan, Jordan, Mark, Grigione, Melissa, LaScaleia, Michael C., Davis, Miranda L., Hansen, Chris, Millspaugh, Josh, Lewis, Jesse S., Havrda, Michael, Long, Robert, Remine, Kathryn R., Jaspers, Kodi J., Lafferty, Diana J. R., Hubbard, Tru, Studds, Colin E., Barthelmess, Erika L., Andy, Katherine, Romero, Andrea, O'Neill, Brian J., Hawkins, Melissa T. R., Lombardi, Jason V., Sergeyev, Maksim, Fisher-Reid, M. Caitlin, Rentz, Michael S., Nagy, Christopher, Davenport, Jon M., Rega-Brodsky, Christine C., Appel, Cara L., Lesmeister, Damon B., Giery, Sean T., Whittier, Christopher A., Alston, Jesse M., Sutherland, Chris, Rota, Christopher, Murphy, Thomas, Lee, Thomas E., Mortelliti, Alessio, Bergman, Dylan L., Compton, Justin A., Gerber, Brian D., Burr, Jess, Rezendes, Kylie, DeGregorio, Brett A., Wehr, Nathaniel H., Benson, John F., O’Mara, M. Teague, Jachowski, David S., Gray, Morgan, Beyer, Dean E., Belant, Jerrold L., Horan, Robert V., Lonsinger, Robert C., Kuhn, Kellie M., Hasstedt, Steven C. M., Zimova, Marketa, Moore, Sophie M., Herrera, Daniel J., Fritts, Sarah, Edelman, Andrew J., Flaherty, Elizabeth A., Petroelje, Tyler R., Neiswenter, Sean A., Risch, Derek R., Iannarilli, Fabiola, van der Merwe, Marius, Maher, Sean P., Farris, Zach J., Webb, Stephen L., Mason, David S., Lashley, Marcus A., Wilson, Andrew M., Vanek, John P., Wehr, Samuel R., Conner, L. Mike, Beasley, James C., Bontrager, Helen L., Baruzzi, Carolina, Ellis-Felege, Susan N., Proctor, Mike D., Schipper, Jan, Weiss, Katherine C. B., Darracq, Andrea K., Barr, Evan G., Alexander, Peter D., Şekercioğlu, Çağan H., Bogan, Daniel A., Schalk, Christopher M., Fantle-Lepczyk, Jean E., Lepczyk, Christopher A., LaPoint, Scott, Whipple, Laura S., Rowe, Helen Ivy, Mullen, Kayleigh, Bird, Tori, Zorn, Adam, Brandt, LaRoy, Lathrop, Richard G., McCain, Craig, Crupi, Anthony P., Clark, James, and Parsons, Arielle

Published
2024

9. Pathways for urgent action towards climate resilient development

Author

Eriksen, Siri H., Simpson, Nicholas P., Glavovic, Bruce, Ley, Debora, Carr, Edward R., Fernández-Carril, Luis, Hayward, Bronwyn, Morecroft, Mike D., Pathak, Minal, Pereira, Joy Jacqueline, Pörtner, Hans-Otto, Roberts, Debra C., Ruane, Alex C., Sánchez-Rodríguez, Roberto, Schipper, E. Lisa F., Solecki, William, Stringer, Lindsay C., Totin, Edmond, Birt, Arlene, and Degvold, Frode

Published
2024
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15. Predicting the Unpredictable under Subjective Expected Utility

Author

Schipper, Burkhard C.

Subjects
Economics - Theoretical Economics, Mathematics - Probability, 60G09
Abstract

We consider a decision maker who is unaware of objects to be sampled and thus cannot form beliefs about the occurrence of particular objects. Ex ante she can form beliefs about the occurrence of novelty and the frequencies of yet to be known objects. Conditional on any sampled objects, she can also form beliefs about the next object being novel or being one of the previously sampled objects. We characterize behaviorally such beliefs under subjective expected utility. In doing so, we relate "reverse" Bayesianism, a central property in the literature on decision making under growing awareness, with exchangeable random partitions, the central property in the literature on the discovery of species problem and mutations in statistics, combinatorial probability theory, and population genetics. Partition exchangeable beliefs do not necessarily satisfy "reverse" Bayesianism. Yet, the most prominent models of exchangeable random partitions, the model by De Morgan (1838), the one parameter model of Ewens (1972), and the two parameter model of Pitman (1995) and Zabell (1997), do satisfy "reverse" Bayesianism., Comment: 34 pages, 4 figures

Published
2024

16. Artificial intelligence to unlock real‐world evidence in clinical oncology: A primer on recent advances

Author

Bryant, Alex K, Zamora‐Resendiz, Rafael, Dai, Xin, Morrow, Destinee, Lin, Yuewei, Jungles, Kassidy M, Rae, James M, Tate, Akshay, Pearson, Ashley N, Jiang, Ralph, Fritsche, Lars, Lawrence, Theodore S, Zou, Weiping, Schipper, Matthew, Ramnath, Nithya, Yoo, Shinjae, Crivelli, Silvia, and Green, Michael D

Subjects
Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Oncology and Carcinogenesis, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, Networking and Information Technology R&D (NITRD), Clinical Research, Cancer, Bioengineering, Humans, Artificial Intelligence, Medical Oncology, Neoplasms, Cancer Outcomes Research, Large language models, Observational Data, prognostic factor, Biochemistry and Cell Biology, Oncology and carcinogenesis
Abstract

PurposeReal world evidence is crucial to understanding the diffusion of new oncologic therapies, monitoring cancer outcomes, and detecting unexpected toxicities. In practice, real world evidence is challenging to collect rapidly and comprehensively, often requiring expensive and time-consuming manual case-finding and annotation of clinical text. In this Review, we summarise recent developments in the use of artificial intelligence to collect and analyze real world evidence in oncology.MethodsWe performed a narrative review of the major current trends and recent literature in artificial intelligence applications in oncology.ResultsArtificial intelligence (AI) approaches are increasingly used to efficiently phenotype patients and tumors at large scale. These tools also may provide novel biological insights and improve risk prediction through multimodal integration of radiographic, pathological, and genomic datasets. Custom language processing pipelines and large language models hold great promise for clinical prediction and phenotyping.ConclusionsDespite rapid advances, continued progress in computation, generalizability, interpretability, and reliability as well as prospective validation are needed to integrate AI approaches into routine clinical care and real-time monitoring of novel therapies.

Published
2024

17. A burden of rare copy number variants in obsessive-compulsive disorder

Author

Halvorsen, Matthew W., de Schipper, Elles, Bäckman, Julia, Strom, Nora I., Hagen, Kristen, Lindblad-Toh, Kerstin, Karlsson, Elinor K., Pedersen, Nancy L., Wallert, John, Bulik, Cynthia M., Fundín, Bengt, Landén, Mikael, Kvale, Gerd, Hansen, Bjarne, Haavik, Jan, Mattheisen, Manuel, Rück, Christian, Mataix-Cols, David, and Crowley, James J.

Published
2024
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21. Identifying and addressing mentorship gaps in European trauma and emergency surgical training. Results from the Young European Society of Trauma and Emergency Surgery (yESTES) mentorship survey

Author

Cioffi, Stefano Piero Bernardo, Benuzzi, Laura, Herbolzheimer, Marit, Marrano, Enrico, Bellio, Gabriele, Kluijfhout, Wouter Pieter, Wijdicks, Frans-Jasper, Hättich, Annika, Talving, Peep, Bulger, Eileen, Tilsed, Jonathan, Mariani, Diego, Valcarcel, Cristina Rey, Mohseni, Shahin, Brundage, Susan, Yanez, Carlos, Verbruggen, Jan P. A. M., Hildebrand, Frank, Schipper, Inger B., Gaarder, Christine, Cimbanassi, Stefania, Kurihara, Hayato, and Bass, Gary Alan

Published
2024
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31. Level-k Thinking in the Extensive Form

Author

Schipper, Burkhard C. and Zhou, Hang

Subjects
Computer Science - Computer Science and Game Theory
Abstract

Level-k thinking has been widely applied as a solution concept for games in normal form in behavioral and experimental game theory. We consider level-k thinking in games in extensive form. Player's may learn about levels of opponents' thinking during the play of the game because some information sets may be inconsistent with certain levels. In particular, for any information set reached, a level-k player attaches the maximum level-l thinking for l < k to her opponents consistent with the information set. We compare our notion of strong level-k thinking with other solution concepts such as level-k thinking in the associated normal form, strong rationalizability, Delta-rationalizability, iterated admissibility, backward rationalizability, backward level-k thinking, and backward induction. We use strong level-k thinking to reanalyze data from some prior experiments in the literature., Comment: 51 pages, 10 figures

Published
2023

32. Implicit Knowledge in Unawareness Structures

Author

Belardinelli, Gaia and Schipper, Burkhard C.

Subjects
Computer Science - Logic in Computer Science, Computer Science - Computer Science and Game Theory, F.4.1
Abstract

Awareness structures by Fagin and Halpern (1988) (FH) feature a syntactic awareness correspondence and accessibility relations modeling implicit knowledge. They are a flexible model of unawareness, and best interpreted from a outside modeler's perspective. Unawareness structures by Heifetz, Meier, and Schipper (2006, 2008) (HMS) model awareness by a lattice of state spaces and explicit knowledge via possibility correspondences. Sublattices thereof can be interpreted as subjective views of agents. Open questions include (1) how implicit knowledge can be defined in HMS structures, and (2) in which way FH structures can be extended to model the agents' subjective views. In this paper, we address (1) by defining implicit knowledge such that it is consistent with explicit knowledge in HMS models. We also introduce a variant of HMS models that instead of explicit knowledge, takes implicit knowledge and awareness as primitives. Further, we address (2) by introducing a category of FH models that are modally equivalent relative to sublanguages and can be interpreted as agents' subjective views depending on their awareness. These constructions allow us to show an equivalence between HMS and FH models. As a corollary, we obtain soundness and completeness of HMS models with respect to the Logic of Propositional Awareness, based on a language featuring both implicit and explicit knowledge., Comment: 46 pages. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2307.05041 author note: This is the full version of the arXiv:2307.05041

Published
2023

35. Boosting the accuracy of existing models by updating and extending: using a multicenter COVID-19 ICU cohort as a proxy

Author

Meijs, Daniek A. M., Wynants, Laure, van Kuijk, Sander M. J., Scheeren, Clarissa I. E., Hana, Anisa, Mehagnoul-Schipper, Jannet, Stessel, Björn, Vander Laenen, Margot, Cox, Eline G. M., Sels, Jan-Willem E. M., Smits, Luc J. M., Bickenbach, Johannes, Mesotten, Dieter, van der Horst, Iwan C. C., Marx, Gernot, and van Bussel, Bas C. T.

Published
2024
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41. Dolphin CONTINUE: a multi-center randomized controlled trial to assess the effect of a nutritional intervention on brain development and long-term outcome in infants born before 30 weeks of gestation

Author

Janson, E., Koolschijn, P. C. M. P., Schipper, L., Boerma, T. D., Wijnen, F. N. K., de Boode, W. P., van den Akker, C. H. P., Licht-van der Stap, R. G., Nuytemans, D. H. G. M., Onland, W., Obermann-Borst, S. A., Dudink, J., de Theije, C. G. M., Benders, M. J. N. L., and van der Aa, N. E.

Published
2024
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50. Performance and stability analysis of all-perovskite tandem photovoltaics in light-driven electrochemical water splitting

Author

Junke Wang, Bruno Branco, Willemijn H. M. Remmerswaal, Shuaifeng Hu, Nick R. M. Schipper, Valerio Zardetto, Laura Bellini, Nicolas Daub, Martijn M. Wienk, Atsushi Wakamiya, Henry J. Snaith, and René A. J. Janssen

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Abstract All-perovskite tandem photovoltaics are a potentially cost-effective technology to power chemical fuel production, such as green hydrogen. However, their application is limited by deficits in open-circuit voltage and, more challengingly, poor operational stability of the photovoltaic cell. Here we report a laboratory-scale solar-assisted water-splitting system using an electrochemical flow cell and an all-perovskite tandem solar cell. We begin by treating the perovskite surface with a propane-1,3-diammonium iodide solution that reduces interface non-radiative recombination losses and achieves an open-circuit voltage above 90% of the detailed-balance limit for single-junction solar cells between the bandgap of 1.6–1.8 eV. Specifically, a high open-circuit voltage of 1.35 V and maximum power conversion efficiency of 19.9% are achieved at a 1.77 eV bandgap. This enables monolithic all-perovskite tandem solar cells with a 26.0% power conversion efficiency at 1 cm2 area and a pioneering photovoltaic-electrochemical system with a maximum solar-to-hydrogen efficiency of 17.8%. The system retains over 60% of its peak performance after operating for more than 180 h. We find that the performance loss is mainly due to the degradation of the photovoltaic component. We observe severe charge collection losses in the narrow-bandgap sub-cell that can be attributed to the interface degradation between the narrow-bandgap perovskite and the hole-transporting layer. Our study suggests that developing chemically stable absorbers and contact layers is critical for the applications of all-perovskite tandem photovoltaics.

Published
2025
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