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Maternal immune activation (MIA) during pregnancy has been linked to an increased risk of developing psychiatric pathologies in later life. This link may be bridged by a defective microglial phenotype in the offspring induced by MIA, as microglia have key roles in the development and maintenance of neuronal signaling in the central nervous system. The beneficial effects of the immunomodulatory treatment with minocycline on schizophrenic patients are consistent with this hypothesis. Using the MIA mouse model, we found an altered microglial transcriptome and phagocytic function in the adult offspring accompanied by behavioral abnormalities. The changes in microglial phagocytosis on a functional and transcriptional level were similar to those observed in a mouse model of Alzheimer's disease hinting to a related microglial phenotype in neurodegenerative and psychiatric disorders. Minocycline treatment of adult MIA offspring reverted completely the transcriptional, functional and behavioral deficits, highlighting the potential benefits of therapeutic targeting of microglia in psychiatric disorders.

The making of statistical inferences in distributional form is conceptionally complicated because the epistemic 'probabilities' assigned are mixtures of fact and fiction. In this respect they are essentially different from 'physical' or 'frequency-theoretic' probabilities. The distributional form is so attractive and useful, however, that it should be pursued. Our approach is In line with Walds theory of statistical decision functions and with Lehmann's books about hypothesis testing and point estimation: loss functions are defined, risk functions are studied, unbiasedness and equivariance restrictions are made, etc. A central theme is that the loss function should be 'proper'. This fundamental concept has been explored by meteorologists, psychometrists, Bayesian statisticians, and others. The paper should be regarded as an attempt to reconcile various schools of statisticians. By accepting what we regard 88 good and useful in the various approaches we are trying to develop a nondogmatic approach.

The second author is involved in a capture-mark-recapture study of some wader species. Part of his program deals with resight observations. On a particular day he visually inspects a fairly stable population to identify the ringed birds by reading their ring-number. Some ringed birds will be missed, so observations are repeated on other days. The issue of main interest is whether, after some repetitions, we can be sufficiently sure that all the ringed birds in the population have been identified or, equivalently, that the frequency of unseen birds is zero. Most current theory is concerned with an asymptotic setting. In our 'exact' context the emphasis is on the determination of the 'probability' that the frequency of unseen birds is zero. This issue is settled by considering the more general problem of 'estimating' the frequency of the unseen birds by providing a predictive inference in the form of a probability distribution. We develop methods of inference based on the assumption of a bird-independent probability p(i) of identifying a ringed bird on day i, as well as without this assumption. In Section 5 we critically examine these approaches.

Empirical evidence can sometimes be incorporated in a probabilistic analysis by conditioning with respect to the observations. Usually, the underlying probability distribution and also the conditional distribution are not completely known. The assignment of probabilities will then require a compromise. The making of such a compromise goes beyond mathematical theory: a statistical discussion is needed. It depends on the context whether the result of such discussion is almost compelling, reasonable, or not really agreeable. This is illustrated by means of a simple example from the area of predictive distributional inference.