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The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on people's lives, making accurate prediction of epidemic trends a central focus in COVID-19 research. This study innovatively utilizes a spatiotemporal heterogeneity analysis (GTNNWR) model to predict COVID-19 deaths, simulate pandemic prevention scenarios, and quantitatively assess their preventive effects. The results show that the GTNNWR model exhibits superior predictive capacity to the conventional infectious disease dynamics model (SEIR model), which is approximately 9% higher, and reflects the spatial and temporal heterogeneity well. In scenario simulations, this study established five scenarios for epidemic prevention measures, and the results indicate that masks are the most influential single preventive measure, reducing deaths by 5.38%, followed by vaccination at 3.59%, and social distancing mandates at 2.69%. However, implementing single stringent preventive measures does not guarantee effectiveness across all states and months, such as California in January 2025, Florida in August 2024, and March–April 2024 in the continental U.S. On the other hand, the combined implementation of preventive measures proves 5 to-10-fold more effective than any single stringent measure, reducing deaths by 27.2%. The deaths under combined implementation measures never exceed that of standard preventive measures in any month. The research found that the combined implementation of measures in mask wearing, vaccination, and social distancing during winter can reduce the deaths by approximately 45%, which is approximately 1.5–3-fold higher than in the other seasons. This study provides valuable insights for COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control in America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological security is essential for the development of environmental health and human society. However, the driving mechanisms and spatial non-stationarity of ecological risks are still unknown, particularly in arid areas. Thus, this study constructed an ecological risk index (ERI) research framework in arid areas based on land use and socio-economic data from 1980 to 2020 to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution trend, driving mechanisms, and spatial non-stationarity of ecological risk and predict the ecological risk under business-as-usual, economic development, and ecological protection scenarios using a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model. The results show that: (1) cropland and build-up land were expanding, whereas forestland and grassland water bodies were shrinking. Compared with the two development stages from 1980 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2020, cropland increased by 4.73% and 51.52%, respectively, whereas build-up land increased by 12.64% and 106.52%, respectively, indicating rapid development and drastic changes in the past 20 years. (2) With the change in landscape diversity, the regional ecological risks showed an increasing trend, whereas the future ecological risks showed an increasing trend because of the cumulative effect of landscape pattern changes caused by human activities. (3) Moreover, dramatic changes in ecological risk, particularly in areas of intense human activity in build-up land, agricultural land, artificial oases, and mountainous areas. Corresponding to the analysis of driving mechanisms, population, GDP, distance to government, water, and primary roads; have a significant effect on ecological risk, whereas DEM has direct and indirect effect paths. Ultimately, the proposed analysis framework can present the spatiotemporal changes of ecological risks and their influencing mechanisms, which can help develop sustainable development policies.

Rapid urbanization has profoundly impacted social and environmental systems. China is the world’s largest developing country. Projecting future urban expansion in China is critical to alleviate any adverse impacts and achieve sustainable development goals. However, the existing national-scale urban expansion simulations at low or medium resolutions produce significant distortions in urban spatial patterns, limiting the utility of future projections. High-resolution simulation of urban expansion is challenging on a large scale owing to high computational demands. In this study, we used a high-performance cellular automata model (Tensor-FLUS) to simulate the urban expansion of China from 2015 to 2050, at 30 m spatial resolution, under shared socioeconomic pathways. The high-resolution (30 m) urban expansion simulations preserve greater spatial details and avoid 34.07–37.60% underestimation of the urban area, compared with simulation at 1 km resolution. The environmental impact assessments revealed that future urban expansion mainly encroaches on cropland (88.00–88.29%), with a greater likelihood of occupying productive cropland, placing substantial pressure on food production. Although the proportion of occupied natural land is relatively small (11.32–11.60%), newly expanded urban areas will tend to consume woodland and grassland of high ecological value, leading to profound impacts on the ecosystem. In general, the produced high-resolution future simulations can reduce the uncertainty of environmental impact assessment at the national scale. Furthermore, it can provide consistent projection data for research at the provincial or metropolitan scales to support urban planning and local climate change mitigation.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on people’s lives, making accurate prediction of epidemic trends a central focus in COVID-19 research. This study innovatively utilizes a spatiotemporal heterogeneity analysis (GTNNWR) model to predict COVID-19 deaths, simulate pandemic prevention scenarios, and quantitatively assess their preventive effects. The results show that the GTNNWR model exhibits superior predictive capacity to the conventional infectious disease dynamics model (SEIR model), which is approximately 9% higher, and reflects the spatial and temporal heterogeneity well. In scenario simulations, this study established five scenarios for epidemic prevention measures, and the results indicate that masks are the most influential single preventive measure, reducing deaths by 5.38%, followed by vaccination at 3.59%, and social distancing mandates at 2.69%. However, implementing single stringent preventive measures does not guarantee effectiveness across all states and months, such as California in January 2025, Florida in August 2024, and March–April 2024 in the continental U.S. On the other hand, the combined implementation of preventive measures proves 5 to-10-fold more effective than any single stringent measure, reducing deaths by 27.2%. The deaths under combined implementation measures never exceed that of standard preventive measures in any month. The research found that the combined implementation of measures in mask wearing, vaccination, and social distancing during winter can reduce the deaths by approximately 45%, which is approximately 1.5–3-fold higher than in the other seasons. This study provides valuable insights for COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control in America.

Simulating cultivated land changes is vital for improving decision-making in sustainable agriculture. Compared to previous studies, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSPs-RCPs) scenarios provide a comprehensive framework for integrating climate and socioeconomic factors, offering deeper insights into future cultivated land dynamics. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as the study area, we developed localized SSPs-RCPs scenarios and adopted Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model to simulate cultivated land changes under multiple scenarios. The findings indicate that cultivated land is predicted to decrease under all scenarios, with the SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios showing the highest and lowest decrease of 39.24% and 8.32%, respectively. By 2050, the loss of cultivated land in the upper reaches is expected to be significantly greater than that in the middle and lower reaches. Furthermore, grasslands, forests, and urban areas are the main types of land that replacing cultivated land in the YREB. The hotspots of cultivated land loss are in mountainous areas such as Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou. Additionally, the gravity center of cultivated land distribution moved along the southeast to northeast, with the center of gravity shifting from Guizhou to Hunan under scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. This study offers insights into the future development of cultivated land in the YREB and highlights the significance of implementing and improving policies for its protection. • GCAM and FLUS model were used to simulate the dynamics of cultivated land in 2020–2100 under localized SSP-RCP scenarios. • 2050 was a crucial turning point for changes in cultivated land in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. • The upper reaches faced significant challenges to the conservation of the cultivated land under four scenarios. • Land-use regulation and subregional topography greatly influenced the distribution of cultivated land. • Urban and grassland sprawl were main causes of cultivated land loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioenergy is being increasingly used worldwide to generate energy from biogas, biomethane, and other biofuels, bringing significant environmental and economic benefits. In Italy, biogas can significantly contribute to the achievement of the renewable energy targets set at the national and European levels. The exploitation of this energy source in a particular area is determined by its environmental and anthropic properties, as well as by the incentive system and the political will of decision makers. This paper analyzes the socioeconomic drivers and natural conditions triggering bioelectricity production in Italian regions. The analysis proposed here was performed in two steps—first, by identifying groups of similar regions for some natural, social, and economic variables, and then by modeling the historical trajectory of bioelectricity production for each identified group with innovation diffusion models. As a general finding, regions pertaining to the same group in terms of natural and socioeconomic conditions revealed a similar production pattern for bioelectricity, as confirmed by the results of diffusion modeling. On the basis of the diffusion modeling procedure, some scenario simulations were performed, which suggested the set-up of suitable policy actions for each group of regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important ecological security shelter in China, yet the environment here remains fragile and is difficult to restore. This ecosystem is likely to face additional threats in the future as it will be influenced by human activities and climate change. Although a number of investigations regarding land cover changes on the TP as well as resultant influences on ecosystem services have been performed over recent decades, reliable evaluation of future land cover change scenarios and their potential ecological impacts remain absent. Thus, to remedy this, we developed a method that can spatially and explicitly evaluate TP ecosystem services responses to future land cover changes. Simulation results for TP land cover changes between 2010 and 2030 reveal that under a business-as-usual scenario, grassland area will increase by 1.04%, wetland area will increase by 6.01%, and forested area will increase by 0.07%. In contrast, under an ecological protection scenario, forested and wetland areas will increase by 1.06% and 28.87% respectively, while grassland area will increase by 7.09%. We then calculated the responses of ecosystem services over the period same period; results show that under a business-as-usual scenario, land cover changes on the TP would lead to a net primary productively (NPP) increase of 0.004%, a 0.011% decrease in soil conservation services, and a 0.023% decrease in water yield. In contrast, under an ecological protection scenario, land cover changes on the TP would lead to a NPP increase of 0.006%, a 0.007% decrease in soil conservation services, and a 0.007% decrease in water yield. Ecosystem service values given an ecological protection scenario will be slightly higher than those given a business-as-usual scenario.

Pecan (Carya illinoinensis) is an important nut tree species in its native areas in temperate and subtropical North America, and as an introduced crop in subtropical southeastern China as well. We used process-based modeling to assess the effects of climatic warming in southeastern China on the leaf-out phenology of pecan seedlings and the subsequent risk of "false springs," i.e., damage caused by low temperatures occurring as a result of prematurely leafing out. In order to maximize the biological realism of the model used in scenario simulations, we developed the model on the basis of experiments explicitly designed for determining the responses modeled. The model showed reasonable internal accuracy when calibrated against leaf-out observations in a whole-tree chamber (WTC) experiment with nine different natural-like fluctuating temperature treatments. The model was used to project the timing of leaf-out in the period 2022–2099 under the warming scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in southeastern China. Two locations in the main pecan cultivation area in the northern subtropical zone and one location south of the main cultivation area were addressed. Generally, an advancing trend of leaf-out was projected for all the three locations under both warming scenarios, but in the southern location, a delay was projected under RCP8.5 in many years during the first decades of the 21st century. In the two northern locations, cold damage caused by false springs was projected to occur once in 15–26 years at most, suggesting that pecan cultivation can be continued relatively safely in these two locations. Paradoxically, more frequent cold damage was projected for the southern location than for the two northern locations. The results for the southern location also differed from those for the northern locations in that more frequent cold damage was projected under the RCP4.5 warming scenario (once in 6 years) than under the RCP8.5 scenario (once in 11 years) in the southern location. Due to the uncertainties of the model applied, our conclusions need to be re-examined in an additional experimental study and further model development based on it; but on the basis of our present results, we do not recommend starting large-scale pecan cultivation in locations south of the present main pecan cultivation area in southeastern subtropical China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Norway produces more than one million tonnes of salmonids every year, almost exclusively in open-water net pens. In 2014, the Norwegian government announced plans to increase salmonid production. However, increasing the number of farmed salmonids can have negative effects on the marine environment that threaten the industry’s sustainability. In particular, production growth can lead to an increase in density-dependent diseases, including parasitic sea lice. The aim of this study was to simulate the effects of increased salmonid production on sea lice abundance using different scenarios for increasing the number of fish and for the management of sea lice. We used a previously developed, partly stage-structured model based on Norwegian production and environmental data to simulate the different scenarios. Our results show that increasing the marine farmed salmonid population at a national level by two or five times the current production leads to an increase in the sea lice abundance by 3.5% and 7.1%, respectively. We also found that by lowering the maximum allowable level of sea lice to an average of 0.049 adult females per fish, weekly treatments can be used to control sea lice population growth with a five times increase in production. However, this increases the number of farms treating per week by as much as 281.3%, which can lead to high costs and increased mortality among farmed salmonids. Overall, the results from our study shed light on the effects of increasing salmonid production in Norway with respect to the ongoing threat of sea lice infestations.

Abstract Land change, especially urban land expansion, is increasingly triggered by remote demands for goods and services rather than by purely local drivers, exerting pressure on ecosystem services beyond local boundaries. This effect has been termed as 'tele-connections'. China has become the world's second largest economy. Understanding the tele-connections between China's future urban growth and its impacts on ecosystem services is essential to reconcile the conflict between socioeconomic developments and ecological protection. To this end, we propose to integrate an urban growth simulation model with the multi-region input-output (MRIO) model, thereby illustrating how urban land consumption in one region can cause ecosystem services' degradation in another. We explore the decline in ecosystem services due to urban land tele-connections under five shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The results yield the direct loss of ecosystem services by 1.14–5.42% in food production, 0.06–0.44% in carbon sequestration, 0.09–0.59% in soil retention, 0.05–0.29% in sandstorm prevention, 0.12–0.80% in water retention and 0.19–1.04% in habitat provision. Uneven ecological consequences caused by domestic urban land displacement are witnessed not only in China's peripheral regions but also in developed regions. Shanghai, as the largest city in China, is expected to exert great impacts in terms of the quantity of ecosystem services decline and its spatial extent as well. Overall, the presented scenario simulations can support the establishment of effective compensation strategies toward balancing the responsibility and rights of stakeholders associated with ecological services protection. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Urban CA and MRIO model are integrated to simulate urban land tele-connections. • Future ecosystem degradation due to urban land expansion is assessed under SSPs. • Direct loss of food production is expected to reach as much as 5%. • Substantial ecological services loss is witnessed in developed regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • FUTURES-ABM, a hybrid ABM-CA model building on existing models and frameworks is presented. • FUTURES-ABM introduces a diverse agent typology and uses peer-influence for decision-making. • A sensitivity analysis embedded in a simulation experiment was carried out for a rapidly urbanizing area. • The new decision-making components generated qualitatively different landscape patterns. Abstract Population growth and unrestricted development policies are driving low-density urbanization and fragmentation of peri-urban landscapes across North America. While private individuals own most undeveloped land, little is known about how their decision-making processes shape landscape-scale patterns of urbanization over time. We introduce a hybrid agent-based modeling (ABM) – cellular automata (CA) modeling approach, developed for analyzing dynamic feedbacks between landowners' decisions to sell their land for development, and resulting patterns of landscape fragmentation. Our modeling approach builds on existing conceptual frameworks in land systems modeling by integrating an ABM into an established grid-based land-change model – FUTURES. The decision-making process within the ABM involves landowner agents whose decision to sell their land to developers is a function of heterogeneous preferences and peer-influences (i.e., spatial neighborhood relationships). Simulating landowners' decision to sell allows an operational link between the ABM and the CA module. To test our hybrid ABM-CA approach, we used empirical data for a rapidly growing region in North Carolina for parameterization. We conducted a sensitivity analysis focusing on the two most relevant parameters—spatial actor distribution and peer-influence intensity—and evaluated the dynamic behavior of the model simulations. The simulation results indicate different peer-influence intensities lead to variable landscape fragmentation patterns, suggesting patterns of spatial interaction among landowners indirectly affect landscape-scale patterns of urbanization and the fragmentation of undeveloped forest and farmland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban growth boundaries (UGBs) have been applied in many rapid urbanizing areas to alleviate the problems of urban sprawl. Although empirical research has stressed the importance of ecological protection in UGB delineation, existing UGB models lack a component for the assessment of ecologically sensitive areas. To address this problem, we develop an innovative method that is capable of simulating UGB alternatives with economic and ecological constraints. Our method employs a patch-based cellular automaton (i.e. SA-Patch-CA) for simulating future urban growth, constrained by the ecological protection areas produced by an agent-based land allocation optimization model (AgentLA). The delineation of UGBs is also based on the estimated future urban land demand derived from support vector regression (SVR). The proposed method is applied in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), China. Three scenarios are designed to represent different objectives of future industrial transitions. The results indicate that increasing the shares of low energy consumption industries and tertiary industries can effectively reduce urban land demand. By overlapping the simulations, we found that the areal agreement of the simulated UGBs among the three scenarios accounts for approximately 88% of the total area. These areas can then be considered as the primary locations for establishing the UGBs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • A research framework of ecological risk assessment in arid areas was explored. • Land use evaluation and projection with PLUS in arid northwestern region of China. • Urban built-up areas and cropland expansion crowding out forest and grassland. • Increased landscape fragmentation and spatial diversity raised ecological risk. Ecological security is essential for the development of environmental health and human society. However, the driving mechanisms and spatial non-stationarity of ecological risks are still unknown, particularly in arid areas. Thus, this study constructed an ecological risk index (ERI) research framework in arid areas based on land use and socio-economic data from 1980 to 2020 to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution trend, driving mechanisms, and spatial non-stationarity of ecological risk and predict the ecological risk under business-as-usual, economic development, and ecological protection scenarios using a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model. The results show that: (1) cropland and build-up land were expanding, whereas forestland and grassland water bodies were shrinking. Compared with the two development stages from 1980 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2020, cropland increased by 4.73% and 51.52%, respectively, whereas build-up land increased by 12.64% and 106.52%, respectively, indicating rapid development and drastic changes in the past 20 years. (2) With the change in landscape diversity, the regional ecological risks showed an increasing trend, whereas the future ecological risks showed an increasing trend because of the cumulative effect of landscape pattern changes caused by human activities. (3) Moreover, dramatic changes in ecological risk, particularly in areas of intense human activity in build-up land, agricultural land, artificial oases, and mountainous areas. Corresponding to the analysis of driving mechanisms, population, GDP, distance to government, water, and primary roads; have a significant effect on ecological risk, whereas DEM has direct and indirect effect paths. Ultimately, the proposed analysis framework can present the spatiotemporal changes of ecological risks and their influencing mechanisms, which can help develop sustainable development policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological research on the Všeminka and Dřevnice experimental catchments has been carried out for almost ten years. Earlier analyses on these catchments have provided many partial results in the assessment of land use on water regime and also some analysis of extreme hydrological event conditions. This paper gives attention to identification of extreme hydrological periods (i.e floods and droughts) and to the simulation of events when these catchments are in that time impacted by the torrential rainfall of design character with the periodicity P = 0.01 (N = 100 years). This is the core of the paper focusing on the analyses of extreme summer periods in 1992 (dry season) and 1997 (flood season). These 50-day periods were first reconstructed in their real existing situations with a particular reference to compute the main components of water balance. This reconstruction was implemented by the WBCM model using the parameter values derived from the optimalisation process of some annual vegetation periods in the past. These parameter values were used to simulate both extreme situations when the design rainfall impacted the experimental catchments. In the dry period of 1992, the design rainfall of 100-years caused the direct runoff increase on Všeminka for 13%, on Dřevnice for 32%. In the flood period of 1997 this increment of direct runoff should achieve 52% on Všeminka and even 93% of the existing situation on the Dřevnice catchment. The differences between two experimental catchments are caused by the different retention capacities of their active zones.

Forest losses can lead to severe damage to ecosystem services (ESs), especially in the tropics. Tropical forests are widespread in southwestern China, and they experience continual effects of human activities (e.g., rubber boom). However, forest simulations of land planning have not yet been systematically conducted. Based on a future land-use simulation model, here, the spatio-temporal characteristics of four ES (i.e., soil retention, water yield, carbon fixation, and habitat quality) were examined, and three scenarios (i.e., natural development, rubber development, and ecological protection) were designed and evaluated during 2000 for Xishuangbanna (XSBN), southwestern China. The results showed that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the average values of the ESs declined by 449.1 t for soil retention, 13.4 mm for water yield, 0.1 for habitat quality, and 0.1 kg C/m2 for carbon fixation; (2) the four ESs, with the exception of water yield, had synergistic relationships, and trade-off appeared on the margins of these synergistic relationships; (3) compared with the scenarios of natural development and rubber development, the environmental protection scenario was found to have high efficiency for protecting nature reserves and reducing fragmentation; and (4) the intensity of land-use change will accelerate the decrease of ESs, and it is essential for nature reserves and areas of northern XSBN to improve their level of environmental protection. This work not only further enriches the ES research from the ecological environment and land-planning points of view, but it also provides different planning perspectives for ES and forest scenarios. This is useful in methodical approaches to forest sustainability. • Land changes were caused mainly by the expansion of rubber plantations. • The reduction degrees of ESs had positive correlations with land-use change intensity. • Relation between ESs may transform synergies into trade-off in land fragmentation. • The ecological protection is the optimal situation with effective nature reserves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a tool for estimating energy-related CO 2 emissions from the world's cities based on regression models. The models are developed considering climatic (heating-degree-days) and urban design (land area per person) independent variables. The tool is applied on 3646 urban areas for estimating impacts on urban emissions of a) global transitioning to Electric Vehicles, b) urban density change and c) IPCC climate change scenarios. Results show that urban density decline can lead to significant increase in energy emissions (upto 346% in electricity & 428% in transportation at 2% density decline by 2050). Among the IPCC climate scenarios tested, A1B is the most effective in reducing growth of emissions (upto 12% in electricity & 35% in heating). The tool can further be improved by including more data in the regression models along with inclusion of other relevant emissions and climatic variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In December 2016, China proposed creating about ten sustainable development demonstration zones to create a batch of replicable and extendable demonstration models to fully realize the 2030 sustainable development goals (SDGs) and provide a reference for similar regions of emerging economies. It has now approved six cities that act as green and low carbon lifestyle laboratories. However, very few documents quantitatively evaluate this policy's natural, economic, and social impact. This article comprehensively uses dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) methods and input-output methods to portray the urgency of sustainable development in China. This article sets the sustainable indicator system for the approved six cities and sets scenario simulations based on transformation needs for quantitative evaluation. The results show that demonstration zones policies would lead to a decline in the output of heavily polluting industries. However, in China's current coal-dominated energy structure, the degree of positive impact on the growth of clean industry output would be less than the intensity of the impact on heavily polluting industries. • This study is one of the very few empirical literatures on the impact of demonstration zones in China's sustainable development agenda. • It plays a leading role for emerging economies in deciphering major social contradictions and implementing sustainable development goals. • It provides a Chinese test bed for global sustainable development for the emerging economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • We projected the land cover change in Tibetan Plateau from 2010 to 2030. • Business-as-uusual (BAU) and ecological protection (EP) scenario were developed. • Responses of ecosystem services to projected land cover changes were assessed. • NPP increased by 0.004% and 0.006% under BAU and EP scenario, respectively. • Water yield decreased by 0.023% and 0.007% under BAU and EP, respectively. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important ecological security shelter in China, yet the environment here remains fragile and is difficult to restore. This ecosystem is likely to face additional threats in the future as it will be influenced by human activities and climate change. Although a number of investigations regarding land cover changes on the TP as well as resultant influences on ecosystem services have been performed over recent decades, reliable evaluation of future land cover change scenarios and their potential ecological impacts remain absent. Thus, to remedy this, we developed a method that can spatially and explicitly evaluate TP ecosystem services responses to future land cover changes. Simulation results for TP land cover changes between 2010 and 2030 reveal that under a business-as-usual scenario, grassland area will increase by 1.04%, wetland area will increase by 6.01%, and forested area will increase by 0.07%. In contrast, under an ecological protection scenario, forested and wetland areas will increase by 1.06% and 28.87% respectively, while grassland area will increase by 7.09%. We then calculated the responses of ecosystem services over the period same period; results show that under a business-as-usual scenario, land cover changes on the TP would lead to a net primary productively (NPP) increase of 0.004%, a 0.011% decrease in soil conservation services, and a 0.023% decrease in water yield. In contrast, under an ecological protection scenario, land cover changes on the TP would lead to a NPP increase of 0.006%, a 0.007% decrease in soil conservation services, and a 0.007% decrease in water yield. Ecosystem service values given an ecological protection scenario will be slightly higher than those given a business-as-usual scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming resulting from rapid economic growth across the world has become a worldwide threat. The coordination of development of urbanisation, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions therefore forms an important issue; it has attracted considerable attention from both governments and researchers in recent years. This study investigated the relationship between urbanisation, energy consumption, and CO 2 emissions over the period 1995–2011, using a panel data model, based on the data for 30 Chinese provinces. The potential to reduce CO 2 emissions was also analysed. The results indicated that per capita CO 2 emissions in China were characterised by conspicuous regional imbalances during the period studied; in fact, per capita CO 2 emissions decrease gradually from the eastern coastal region to the central region, and then to the western region. Urbanisation, energy consumption, and CO 2 emissions were found to present a long run bi-directional positive relationship, the significance of which was discovered to vary between provinces as a result of the scale of their respective economies. In addition, a bi-directional causal relationship was found to exist between urbanisation, energy consumption, and CO 2 emissions: specifically, a bi-directional positive causal relationship exists between CO 2 emissions and urbanisation, as well as between energy consumption and CO 2 emissions, and a one way positive causal relationship exists from urbanisation to energy consumption. Scenario simulations further demonstrated that whilst China’s per capita and total CO 2 emissions will increase continuously between 2012 and 2020 under all of the three scenarios developed in this study, the potential to achieve reductions is also high. A better understanding of the relationship between urbanisation, energy consumption, and CO 2 emissions will help China to realise the low-carbon economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The impacts of climate change and environmental management policies on the Mediterranean Sea were analyzed in multi-annual simulations of carbon cycling in a planktonic ecosystem model. The modeling system is based on a high-resolution coupled physical–biogeochemical ocean model that is off-line and forced by medium-resolution global climate simulations and by estimates of continental and river inputs of freshwater and nutrients. The simulations span the periods 1990–2000 and 2090–2100, assuming the IPCC SRES A1B scenario of climatic change at the end of the century. The effects of three different options on land use, mediated through rivers, are also considered. All scenarios indicate that the increase in temperature fuels an increase in metabolic rates. The gross primary production increases approximately 5% over the present-day figures, but the changes in productivity rates are compensated by augmented community respiration rates, so the net community production is stable with respect to present-day figures. The 21st century simulations are characterized by a reduction in the system biomass and by an enhanced accumulation of semi-labile dissolved organic matter. The largest changes in organic carbon production occur close to rivers, where the influence of changes in future nutrient is higher. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Agricultural land use faces global trends such as increasing energy costs, rising agricultural commodity prices and augmenting demand for bioenergy. Our aim is to assess the impact of these trends on the use of arable land for bioenergy and food production, as well as on greenhouse gas emissions and energy requirements from crop production, using linear programming farm type models for scenario simulations in four case study areas in Germany. The results suggest that the analysed global trends are critical for the allocation of land for food or energy crop production. The impacts of agricultural production on farm incomes and services, such as the provision of food and bioenergy, vary notably between the case study areas and the analysed trends. Different agricultural production systems will respond differently to changing boundary conditions in terms of bioenergy production and food supply. Assessing the impact on bioenergy and food production requires taking into account the particular setting in which production is carried out, as well as the local-specific interdependencies of land use and the provision of ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban sprawl has become the main pattern of spatial expansion in many large cities in China, and its ecological and environmental effects profoundly impact Chinese urban development. In this paper, nighttime light data and statistical yearbook data are adopted as basic data sources to simulate the evolution trend of the urban sprawl in the upper Yangtze River (UYR), China. First, the urban sprawl index (USI) is employed to assess the level of urban sprawl and to determine the characteristics of urban sprawl under different scales. Second, the spatial autocorrelation model is applied to reveal the spatial pattern change characteristics of urban sprawl from 1992 to 2015. Third, a scenario analysis model of urban sprawl is constructed to simulate the evolution trend of the urban sprawl under different scenarios. Finally, based on the Geodetector, the influence of factors and factor interactions influencing urban sprawl in different time periods is analyzed. The results yield the following main conclusions: (1) The urban sprawl in the UYR first intensifies and then stabilizes over time. The number of cities with high USI in Sichuan province, medium cities, and Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration increases over time, indicating that urban sprawl is intensifying in these areas. (2) The urban sprawl hot spots experience a pattern transformation process of point-like expansion-point-ring expansion-point-axis expansion-axis radiation. (3) Under the scenarios with different scales, the urban land sprawl in large cities is the highest, accounting for more than 47% of the UYR. Urban land sprawl extent in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration is the highest, accounting for more than 51% of the UYR. The cities exhibiting the highest sprawl are Chongqing, Lijiang, and Kunming, accounting for 25.84%, 7.37%, and 5.11%, respectively, of the UYR. (4) In the different time scenario simulations, the urban land in large cities exhibits the highest sprawl, accounting for approximately 48.16% of the UYR. The urban land in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration demonstrates the highest sprawl, accounting for 50.92% of the UYR. (5) From 1996 to 2002, the driver with the highest influence on urban sprawl was secondary industry share of GDP, with a q -statistic of 0.616. From 2009 to 2015, the driver with the highest influence on urban sprawl was green space per capita with a q -statistic of 0.396.

Abstract: Overexploitation of groundwater resources has supported rapid social and economical developments in Beijing City in last 30years. The newly constructed emergency well fields have saved Beijing from a critical water crisis caused by a long drought spell of eight consecutive years from 1999 to 2006. But this unsustainable development has resulted in serious consequences: discharges to rivers ceased, large number of pumping wells went dry, and land subsidence caused destruction of underground infrastructure. The completion of the middle route of South to North water transfer project to transfer water from Yangtze river to Beijing City by 2010 provides opportunity to reverse the trend of groundwater depletion and to achieve a long-term sustainable development of groundwater resources in Beijing Plain. Four options of groundwater development in Beijing Plain were formulated and assessed with a regional transient groundwater flow model. The business as usual scenario was used as a reference for the comparative analysis and indicates fast depletion of groundwater resources. The reduction of abstraction scenario has immediate and fast recovery of groundwater levels, especially at the cone of depression. The scenario of artificially enhanced groundwater recharge would replenish groundwater resources and maintain the capacity of present water supply well fields. The combined scenario of the reduction of abstraction and the increase of recharge could bring the aquifer systems into a new equilibrium state in 50years. A hydrological sustainability of groundwater resources development could then be achieved in Beijing Plain. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, online scenario simulations were examined. The results show that there is an association between students' satisfaction with the tools and the grade in the course. These tools add value to understanding the subject matter and provide students with near real-life hands-on experience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Norway produces more than one million tonnes of salmonids every year, almost exclusively in open-water net pens. In 2014, the Norwegian government announced plans to increase salmonid production. However, increasing the number of farmed salmonids can have negative effects on the marine environment that threaten the industry's sustainability. In particular, production growth can lead to an increase in density-dependent diseases, including parasitic sea lice. The aim of this study was to simulate the effects of increased salmonid production on sea lice abundance using different scenarios for increasing the number of fish and for the management of sea lice. We used a previously developed, partly stage-structured model based on Norwegian production and environmental data to simulate the different scenarios. Our results show that increasing the marine farmed salmonid population at a national level by two or five times the current production leads to an increase in the sea lice abundance by 3.5% and 7.1%, respectively. We also found that by lowering the maximum allowable level of sea lice to an average of 0.049 adult females per fish, weekly treatments can be used to control sea lice population growth with a five times increase in production. However, this increases the number of farms treating per week by as much as 281.3%, which can lead to high costs and increased mortality among farmed salmonids. Overall, the results from our study shed light on the effects of increasing salmonid production in Norway with respect to the ongoing threat of sea lice infestations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem services (ESs) link natural and social processes and play an important role in sustaining ecological security, human well-being, and sustainable development. However, uncertainties in future socioeconomic land use drivers may result in very different land use dynamics and consequences for land-based ESs. In this study, land use transitions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) were simulated in the short term (2018–2030), medium term (2030–2040), and long term (2040–2050) using the future land use simulation (FLUS) model based on the local shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). According to the projected land use types, six ESs were quantified and assessed regarding how they would evolve under particular land use changes. The results of land use simulations showed that the main features were urban sprawl and a decrease in cropland. In particular, intensive urban sprawl occurred around existing urban areas, and a large amount of cultivated land was converted into urban land. In the YREB, urban land will increase from 88,441 km2 in 2018 to 156,173–192,900 km2 in 2050, while the cropland area will decrease from 607,131 km2 in 2018 to 500,183–596,313 km2 in 2050. As a consequence of urban expansion, all ESs exhibited decreasing trends, except for several services under SSP1. Food production (FP), carbon storage (CS), water conservation (WC), soil retention (SR), air purification (AP), and habitat quality (HQ) will decline by 8.98–21.4%, 1.95–6.781%, 2.97–6.5%, 0.9–1.7%, 1.20–5.15%, and 6.11–12.86%, respectively. The ES integrative assessment indicated distinct provincial differences. Developed eastern provinces have higher populations and urbanization; however, these traits result in greater ES losses. We suggest that future land management should control the blind expansion of urban land and enhance the protection of cropland and natural habitats to reduce ES losses. • Local SSPs are developed by quantifying the key drivers with local details. • Urban expansion is still the main feature of future land use evolution in the YREB. • The ES dynamics driven by urbanization are assessed from the regional perspective. • Policy-making must consider the trade-offs of urbanization for ES provision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Urban land-use change is analysed in a context with strong legislative and market pressures. • Legally binding planning policies are integrated in scenario land-use models. • Simulated land-use patterns show that strict urban planning can prevent non-sustainable trends. • CLUmondo framework is very useful to simulate the effects of planning strategies. Even though urban land-use change simulations provide useful information for decision makers, planning is generally weakly integrated into land-change modelling. However, the increasingly digitally available zoning data from statutory planning offers new opportunities. This study aims to reveal the potential effectiveness of statutory planning in terms of sustainable urban development by integrating zoning regulations in a multi-scenario simulation. Specifically, the gross floor area that can be built per parcel, as defined in the zoning plan, supports the allocation of varying degrees of urban densities. Using the CLUmondo modelling framework that couples cellular automata and multivariate logistic regression, we simulated urban growth in Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, and Zaragoza Spanish Functional Urban Areas from 2012 to 2030 in four scenarios. The scenarios reflect the degree of planning intervention, ranging from high intervention to unrestricted development, while consider Spanish legislation and urban agenda 2030 sustainability goals. Simulations shows that by shifting growth to zones with urbanization projects almost 4200 ha of grassland and cropland could be saved from overbuilding, and 3800 ha by shifting it to zones without urbanization project. The simulation results provide critical information to support decision-makers and planners in revising plans and designing new plans to achieve sustainable urban development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Scenario simulation of the main generating sources of Brazilian electrical matrix. • Dynamic system based on the Autoregressive Vector model with parameters estimated by the Seemingly Unrelated Regressions methodology. • Dependence among hydropower and thermal sources and their reverse effects, such as expanding the use of non-conventional renewable sources: biomass, solar and wind power. • Thermal generation from natural gas as an option to compensate for the instability of renewable sources in Brazilian matrix. Electricity in Brazil is mainly supplied by renewable sources. However, thermal sources are necessary to meet the demand in periods of climatic adversity. The research aimed to identify the existing relationships among Brazilian generating sources and to examine the effects of these relationships for each source, using a system of dynamic equation with VAR modeling and parameters estimated by SUR. The variable analyzed was electricity amount generated (GWh), divided by: biomass; coal; fuels; hydropower; natural gas; nuclear; and wind power. Monthly values ​​were collected at the National Electric Energy Agency website from January 2000 to June 2019. The dynamic equations parameters were estimated by SUR, which provided more functional equations and efficient predictions. The scenario simulations made it possible to verify hydropower generation and its dependence on thermal sources. The adjusted system exposed the reverse effects to this dependence, which suggest an increase in the use of non-conventional renewable sources, such as biomass and solar energy. As another alternative to reduce the matrix thermal dependency, the possibility of encouraging thermal generation from natural gas was identified, as it is a low carbon source, and the development of energy storage solutions, such as batteries, to maintain the electricity supply stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban sprawl is challenging regional sustainability in China due to its complex ecological and environmental impacts. This study aimed to effectively simulate and forecast urban sprawl in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), China. First, we measured the extent of urban sprawl from 1992 to 2015 based on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime light data and an urban sprawl index (USI) at the administrative and river basin scales. Then, we established an urban sprawl scenario analysis (USSA) model that considered the extent of urban sprawl, the source level, ecological barriers and ecological resistance. Finally, we defined four scenarios to simulate the boundaries and spatial morphologies of urban sprawl in the YREB. The results indicate that the YREB will continue to spread at different scales and present unbalanced states under all urban area sprawl scenarios. Under the different scenarios, the upper reaches represented the most sprawling basin, the medium cities exhibited the greatest sprawl, and Cheng-Yu (CY) was the most sprawling urban agglomeration. The most sprawling cities were Chongqing, Kunming and Lijiang, accounting for 7.73%, 2.66% and 2.55% of the entire YREB, respectively. The urban land shared a similar sprawl trend across different years, increasing from 40,665 km2 in 2020 to approximately 111,092 km2 in 2035, for an annual growth rate of 6.93%. Thus, it is suggested that effective measures are needed to manage urban sustainability in the YREB, China. Unlabelled Image • The nighttime light data and USI are utilized to measure the urban sprawl extent. • The YREB continues the sprawl at different scales under all USSA scenarios. • The USSA model can effectively simulate the urban sprawl. • To delimit appropriate boundaries is crucial for YREB to control the urban sprawl. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The impact of spacing between the crowns of plane trees on the reduction of daytime human heat stress is simulated. • The scenario simulations are focused on pedestrians on both tree-lined sidewalks of a shallow and a deep E-W street canyon. • Trees are the most effective at mitigating human heat stress on the S-facing sidewalk of a shallow E-W street canyon. • The mitigation of human heat stress increases with crown coverage, i.e. as the crown spacing decreases. • On the N-facing sidewalk, shading by the S-bordering building masks the mitigation of human heat stress by tree crowns. Concerning Central European conditions the mitigation of daytime heat stress for pedestrians by evenly positioned plane trees on both sidewalks of a shallow and a deep E-W street canyon is quantified by scenario simulations. Using the ENVI-met model v4.0 BETA, they were performed for a previous heat wave day in Freiburg (Southwest Germany). Related to both sidewalks, the simulations are focused on the impact of the spacing between two adjacent tree crowns, which in turn depends on the size and number of trees. It determines the coverage of both sidewalks by tree crowns. The simulation results each averaged over 10–16 CET also refer to (i) the aspect ratios (H/W) of both street canyons and (ii) two values of the inflow speed (v) into the simulation domain. Human thermal comfort is determined by the mean radiant temperature (T mrt) and physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). Due to the maximum solar elevation (59.3°) on the simulation day, spatially high-resolution PET results as well as spatiotemporal averaged T mrt and PET results clearly show the dominant shading effect of the S-bordering building for pedestrians on the N-facing sidewalk. It masks the mitigation of their daytime heat stress only due to the trees. On the S-facing sidewalk, however, the spatiotemporal averaged T mrt and PET results are distinctly lowered by the tree shading as compared to tree-free conditions. The reduction of the T mrt and PET values increases as the spacing between their crowns decreases, i.e. the crown coverage gets larger. This human-biometeorological heat stress mitigation is more pronounced inside the shallow street canyon (H/W = 0.5) than inside the deep one (H/W = 2.0). Regardless of crown coverage, orientation of the sidewalks, H/W ratio and v, the reduction of the spatiotemporal averaged air temperature due to tree shading is almost marginal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]