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The Future of Customs in the EU 2040 report is an outcome of a year-long foresight process. Its aim is to support strategic reflection on the future of the European Union’s Customs Union, its relevance and its effectiveness in the long-term. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) undertook the project in collaboration with the Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union (DG TAXUD). Being participatory and multidisciplinary is an inherent part of any foresight process, and thus it involved all relevant stakeholder groups: including representatives of Member States, key trading partners, trade associations, businesses, consumer organisations, international organisations, academia, and different services and Directorates-General of the European Commission. Foresight serves policymakers in identifying, understanding and directing change, and thus supports the creation of policies that are more robust and fit for the long-term future. To that end, four scenarios of how customs in the European Union could look in 2040, have been created. Further, the exploration of the scenarios and insights from the process fed into a vision-building process, which resulted in a co-created vision for EU Customs in 2040. The foresight process also included a first reflection on how the vision can be reached. Part I of the report presents the summarised outcomes of the foresight methods used, and Part II provides detailed outputs and methodology. The step-by-step process descriptions in Part II can be useful for future foresight initiatives in customs or related policy areas., JRC.I.2-Foresight, Modelling, Behavioural Insights & Design for Policy

The Future of Government project explored how we can rethink the social contract according to the needs of today’s society, what elements need to be adjusted to deliver value and good to people and society, what values we need to improve society, and how we can obtain a new sense of responsibility. Based on the experience from previous decades, it is now very important to think of how new governance models will be developed to anticipate and be prepared for possible futures and what citizens’ requirements are. Large patterns and trends have emerged from the FuturGov scenarios. This has already been discussed in The Future of Government 2030+: A Citizen-Centric Perspective on New Government Models report , published earlier this year. Based on this, The Future of Government 2030+: Policy Implications and Recommendations report provides follow-up insights into the policy implications and offers a set of 57 recommendations, organised in nine policy areas. These stem from a process based on interviews with 20 stakeholders and a participatory workshop with 19 stakeholders. The recommendations include a series of policy options and actions that could be implemented at different levels of governance systems. As these recommendations have shown, collaboration is needed across different policy fields and they should be acted upon as integrated package. Although the majority of recommendations is intended for the EU policymakers, their implementation could be more effective if done through lower levels of governance, eg. local, regional or even national., JRC.I.2-Foresight, Modelling, Behavioural Insights & Design for Policy

The Future of Government 2030+: A Citizen Centric Perspective on New Government Models project brings citizens to the centre of the scene. The objective of this project is to explore the emerging societal challenges, analyse trends in a rapidly changing digital world and launch an EU-wide debate on the possible future government models. To address this, citizen engagement, foresight and design are combined, with recent literature from the field of digital politics and media as a framework. The main research question of the project is: How will citizens, together with other actors, shape governments, policies and democracy in 2030 and beyond? Throughout the highly participatory process, more than 150 citizens, together with CSO, think tank, business and public sector representatives, as well as 100 design students participated in the creation of future scenarios and concepts. Four scenarios have been created using the 20 stories emerged from citizen workshops. They served as an inspiration for design students to develop 40 FuturGov concepts. Through the FuturGov Engagement Game, the project's ambition is to trigger and launch a debate with citizens, businesses, civil society organizations, policy-makers and civil servants in Europe., JRC.I.2-Foresight, Modelling, Behavioural Insights & Design for Policy

Will there be enough plant nutrients to feed a world of 9 billion in 2050? is the central question addressed by a JRC study. This exercise was based on consultations with experts and a thematic workshop focused on three areas of interest: 1) the demand for fertilizers to sustain crop production necessary to feed the world in 2050; 2) perspectives on the supply of Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus (P) and Potassium (K) to world agriculture and 3) the role of innovation and technology in changing the match between demand and supply of fertilizers. Implications of the main findings for current EU and international policies were addressed. Overall, analysis of existing literature and discussions with major experts and stakeholders led to the conclusion that while the situation is currently not critical with respect to the production and availability of plant nutrients, it is important to remain vigilant. The question of reserves (P and K), access, changing geopolitical conditions, economic development, energy costs (mainly for N) and environmental constraints (N and P) could lead to shortfalls and possibly crisis situations in some regions of the world. The situation of Africa deserves particular attention as production, access and use of fertilizers represent key limiting factors in boosting food production in that continent.

Standards are very important as they provide requirements, specifications, guidelines or characteristics that can be used consistently to ensure that materials, products, processes and services are fit for their purpose. They contribute to remove technical barriers to trade, leading to new markets and economic growth for industry. They also facilitate technology transfer and they contribute to ensure safety of products thereby affecting the daily life of citizens. This report ‘How will standards facilitate new production systems in the context of EU innovation and competitiveness in 2025?’ is the outcome of a foresight process looking at how standards and standardisation can become even more relevant policy tool supporting different European policies. The study has especially looked at the areas where Europe drives innovation, where the development of new products and processes could lead to new trade of goods, services and technologies. The foresight process has dealt with standardisation by using a holistic approach. It explored at how effective standards can be developed within a European industrial landscape vision able to contribute to jobs and growth in a sustainable manner. The report provides a clear overview of the evolution of the European production system and illustrates what are the drivers of change influencing the future production system. The Industrial Landscape Vision was used to identify the its implications on the European Standardisation System and it highlights priorities for the development of standards in the future., JRC.DDG.02-Foresight and Behavioural Insights

This edition of the Scanning the Horizon bulletin is the first product of the Science Advice to Policy, Innovation and Horizon Scanning unit. The regular issue of this publication is intended to draw the attention of policy makers in the European Union to scientific and technology issues and developments that may have a bearing on the future policies of the Union. It is prepared by the JRC services based on a review of literature and specialised news sources using a series of categories most relevant to the spectrum of EU policies. If you wish to subscribe or to comment, please do so by sending an email to: JRC-HORIZON@ec.europa.eu, JRC.A.1-Science Advice to Policy

This paper reflects on the potential of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision-makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented Technology Analysis. Considering the potential roles of FTA in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and in defining effective policy responses leads to the understanding that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil such roles. Dealing with disruptive changes - and grand challenges in particular -, therefore, raises several conceptual, methodological and operational issues. Two of them are general, while further two are specific to the so-called grand challenges: i) distinguish known unknowns, unknown knows and unknown unknowns, ii) combine quantitative and qualitative approaches in a relevant and feasible way, iii) understand the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges, and iv) orchestrate joint responses to grand challenges. After a brief explanation of these issues, the paper outlines the main ideas of the papers published in this special issue. These present various methodological aspects of FTA approaches as well as some advances needed in practice to assist FTA practitioners and stakeholders in comprehending transformations and in tackling the so-called grand challenges. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

This paper reports on a detailed comparison of the practical application of two well-known forecasting methods—a surprisingly rare exercise. Delphi and cross-impact analyses are among the best-known methods that apply quantitative approaches to derive forecasts from expert opinion. Despite their prominence, there is a marked shortage of clear guidance as to when and where–and how–particular methods can be useful, or as to what their costs and benefits are. This study applied the two methods to the same area, future European transport systems, using the same expert knowledge base. The results of the implementation of the two techniques were assessed and evaluated, in part through two evaluation questionnaires completed by the experts who participated in the study. This paper describes these encounters with methodology and evaluation, presents illustrative results of the forecasting study, and draws lessons as to good practice in use of these specific methods, as well as concerning methodological good practice in general—for example, stressing the need for systematic documentation, and the scope for debate about established practices., JRC.J.3-Knowledge for Growth

This report provides an overview of a methodological approach designed in two Modules tailored to increase the learning effect and awareness rising of Foresight in New Members States and Candidate Countries (NMS and CC). A better understanding on how to best transmit Foresight knowledge and which methodological approaches can effectively contribute to this end is regarded to be a major milestone in enabling Foresight to be widespread used as a policy informing and facilitating instrument. Such methodological approach should therefore be further tested, improved and adapted both to the specific contexts and current challenges of individual countries in order to facilitate Foresight in NMS and CC., JRC.J.3-Knowledge for Growth