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Climate change is a major environmental threat and there is a national imperative to determine likely impacts on fisheries in Australia. Northern Australia is predicted to be affected by increased water temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns and resultant increases in river flows to the marine environment, increased intensity of cyclones, ocean acidification, and altered current patterns, which will also affect habitats. These changes will directly and indirectly impact on fishery species including modified phenology and physiology, altered ranges and distributions, composition and interactions within communities, and fisheries catch rates. For fishery sectors in northern Australia to be able to respond positively and adapt to climate-induced changes on fish stocks there is a need to determine which stocks, and where, when and how they are likely to be affected, and prioritise species for further actions. This project set out to do this using a structured approach to develop and carry out a semi-quantitative vulnerability assessment and conduct stakeholder workshops to identify adaptation options. These outputs were informed by several tasks: a descriptions of past and future climate; identify likely impacts of climate change on habitats and key fishery species; detailed species profiles to document and understand key fisheries, species life histories, and sensitivity to environmental variability (see Part 2 companion report); and analyses of existing data sets of key species to better understand sensitivity to environmental change.

Common coral trout, Plectropomus leopardus Lacepede, crimson snapper, Lutjanus erythropterus Bloch, saddletail snapper, Lutjanus malabaricus (Bloch & Schneider), red emperor, Lutjanus sebae (Cuvier), redthroat emperor, Lethrinus miniatus (Schneider) and grass emperor, Lethrinus laticaudis Alleyne & Macleay, were tagged to determine the effects of barotrauma relief procedures (weighted shot-line release and venting using a hollow needle) and other factors on survival. Release condition was the most significant factor affecting the subsequent recapture rate of all species. Capture depth was significant in all species apart from L. malabaricus and L. miniatus, the general trend being reduced recapture probability with increasing capture depth. Recapture rates of fish hooked in either the lip or mouth were generally significantly higher than for those hooked in the throat or gut. Statistically significant benefit from treating fish for barotrauma was found in only L. malabaricus, but the lack of any negative effects of treating fish indicated that the practices of venting and shot-lining should not be discouraged by fisheries managers for these species.

Promotion of better procedures for releasing undersize fish, advocacy of catch-and-release angling, and changing minimum legal sizes are increasingly being used as tools for sustainable management of fish stocks. However without knowing the proportion of released fish that survive, the conservation value of any of these measures is uncertain. We developed a floating vertical enclosure to estimate short-term survival of released line-caught tropical and subtropical reef-associated species, and used it to compare the effectiveness of two barotrauma-relief procedures (venting and shotline releasing) on red emperor (Lutjanus sebae). Barotrauma signs varied with capture depth, but not with the size of the fish. Fish from the greatest depths (40-52 m) exhibited extreme signs less frequently than did those from intermediate depths (30-40 m), possibly as a result of swim bladder gas being vented externally through a rupture in the body wall. All but two fish survived the experiment, and as neither release technique significantly improved short-term survival of the red emperor over non-treatment we see little benefit in promoting either venting or shotline releasing for this comparatively resilient species. Floating vertical enclosures can improve short-term post-release mortality estimates as they overcome many problems encountered when constraining fish in submerged cages.

Six species of line-caught coral reef fish (Plectropomus spp., Lethrinus miniatus, Lethrinus laticaudis, Lutjanus sebae, Lutjanus malabaricus and Lutjanus erythropterus) were tagged by members of the Australian National Sportsfishing Association (ANSA) in Queensland between 1986 and 2003. Of the 14,757 fish tagged, 1607 were recaptured and we analysed these data to describe movement and determine factors likely to impact release survival. All species were classified as residents since over 80% of recaptures for each species occurred within 1 km of the release site. Few individuals (range 0.8-5%) were recaptured more than 20 km from their release point. L. sebae had a higher recapture rate (19.9%) than the other species studied (range 2.1-11.7%). Venting swimbladder gases, regardless of whether or not fish appeared to be suffering from barotrauma, significantly enhanced (P < 0.05) the survival of L. sebae and L. malabaricus but had no significant effect (P > 0.05) on L. erythropterus. The condition of fish on release, subjectively assessed by anglers, was only a significant effect on recapture rate for L. sebae where fish in "fair" condition had less than half the recapture rate of those assessed as in "excellent" or "good" condition. The recapture rate of L. sebae and L. laticaudis was significantly (P < 0.05) affected by depth with recapture rate declining in depths exceeding 30 m. Overall, the results showed that depth of capture, release condition and treatment for barotrauma influenced recapture rate for some species but these effects were not consistent across all species studied. Recommendations were made to the ANSA tagging clubs to record additional information such as injury, hooking location and hook type to enable a more comprehensive future assessment of the factors influencing release survival.

Relationships between freshwater flows and growth rates of the opportunistic predatory finfish barramundi Lates calcarifer in a dry tropical estuary were examined using data from a long-term tag-recapture programme. Lagged effects were not investigated. After accounting for length at release, time at liberty and seasonal variation (e.g. winter, spring, summer and autumn), growth rates were significantly and positively related to fresh water flowing to the estuary. Effects were present at relatively low levels of freshwater flow (i.e. 2.15 m3 s-1, the 5th percentile of the mean flow rate experienced by fish in the study during time at liberty). The analysis, although correlative, provides quantitative evidence to support the hypothesis that freshwater flows are important in driving the productivity of estuaries and can improve growth of species high in the trophic chain.