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This article revisits and empirically tests the conjecture that specialization in natural resource industries (NRI) might not necessarily be a 'curse' for developing countries if it generates opportunities for export diversification in backward‐linked sectors à la Hirschman. The article systematizes the evolution of the debate around the NRI 'curse'. Then it empirically tests whether NRI might represent a sufficient 'domestic representative demand' à la Linder to favour diversification into backward‐linked sectors such as knowledge‐intensive business services and high‐tech manufacturing. It focuses on the former and discusses the new opportunities for export diversification led by virtuous pathways of domestic structural change. It finds novel, quantitative empirical support for this conjecture, which complements extant qualitative literature and discusses implications that revisit the NRI curse debate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article revisits two classical approaches to development and trade, and offers an alternative account of the emergence of global value chains (GVCs) involving business services (BS), to trade-in-tasks theory. Based on this account, we propose what we call the Hirschman–Linder hypothesis (HLH), which predicts the need for an adequate 'representative domestic' (intermediate) demand for BS for countries to enter and upgrade in BS GVCs. We review the quantitative and qualitative empirical evidence supporting the HLH and find two main results: (i) countries with a substantial manufacturing core are more likely to participate (and eventually to upgrade) in BS GVCs, and (ii) countries endowed or specialized in natural resource industry (NRI), either the primary or extractive sectors are also likely to be part of BS GVCs. If BS GVCs represent globalization's third unbundling for developing countries, the HLH suggests that on the one hand a core manufacturing sector is essential for entering and upgrading in BS GVCs, and on the other hand that if countries can diversify into BS and upgrade in BS GVCs specialization in natural resources might not necessarily be a curse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Este artículo explora los nuevos desafíos de políticas que han surgido como resultado de la pandemia de COVID-19. La "nueva normalidad" debería reconocer la "nueva esencialidad", en términos de trabajos y sectores. Primero, se examina la disyuntiva entre las políticas sanitarias y las políticas económicas antirrecesivas. Se estudia el impacto económico del confinamiento en los hogares y las empresas, así como la desaceleración del comercio relacionado con las cadenas de valor mundiales. A continuación se analizan las lecciones que se pueden extraer de esta crisis en ámbitos que ya eran contingentes antes de la pandemia y que probablemente lo serán aún más después de ella, incluidas la necesidad de dirigir la transformación digital para minimizar los impactos negativos en los trabajos y sectores, sin dejar de reflexionar de forma crítica sobre su carácter "esencial", y la necesidad de medidas de política para garantizar la buena gobernanza de los datos sanitarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The paper offers a review of selected topics in the empirical literature on structural change and sustainability. We focus on aspects of structural change that directly affect emissions and energy intensity: changes of the sectoral composition of economies, trade and international fragmentation of production, technological change and innovation, and demand. We identify several empirical facts. First, only a few countries have experienced a decoupling between growth and emissions, due to proportionately faster growth rather than greater energy efficiency. Second, the long-term shift from manufacturing to services has not led, in all cases, to the de-materialisation of economies and a lower environmental burden. Exploitation of energy efficiency increases depends on the ability of the service sectors to incorporate technical changes to reduce energy intensity. Third, global trade and energy and emissions intensity trends support the 'pollution haven' hypothesis, which predicts displacement of the environmental burden from developed to emerging countries. The pursuit by developing countries of a long-term strategy of 'trading jobs for emissions' is likely to exacerbate the asymmetry related to emissions intensities between developed and less developed economies. The review should inform debate on environmental policy within the broader context of innovation and development policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract We discuss how different models assessing climate change integrate aspects of structural change that are crucial to improve understanding of the relation between changes in the environment and in the economy. We identify six related aspects of structural change, which have significant impact on climate change: sectoral composition, industrial organisation, technology, employment, final demand, and institutions. Economic models vary substantially with respect to the aspects of structural change that they include, and how they model them. We review different modelling families and compare these differences: integrated assessment models (IAM), computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, structural change models (SCM), ecological macroeconomics models in the Keynesian tradition (EMK) and evolutionary agent based models (EABM). We find that IAM and CGE address few of the aspects of structural change identified; SCM focus on the sectoral composition; and EKM study final demand and employment structure. But all these models are aggregate and omit the complexity of the interactions between structural and climate change. EABM have explored a larger number of aspects of structural change, modelling their emergence from the interaction of microeconomic actors, but have not yet exploited their potential to study the interactions among interrelated aspects of structural and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper adds to the literature on innovation and productivity in services in a three-fold way. First, it extends recent literature attempting to reconceptualise service output in terms of Lancasterian characteristics. Our focus is the analysis of inputs involving the use of client (customer) time in co-production and informational inputs, which may be produced by either the service provider or the client. In particular, we focus on those features that are associated with the use of information and communication technology (ICT) in service definition and delivery. Second, it models user choices in terms of the time-allocation between self-production, co-production and purchase as influenced by competences and time-saving preferences, and supplier choices as governed by opportunities to benefit from informational economies, cost saving arising from the stimulation of co-production and productivity increasing opportunities arising from the use of ICT. Third, it uses the conceptual framework to re-interpret the well-known theory of innovation in services, the Barras reverse product cycle model. Implications of the model for productivity are also considered. Finally, the model is used to interpret UK experience with e-government service: NHS Direct and Direct-Gov. The paper concludes with a research agenda for the scholars of innovation in services. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this article the employment impact of innovation in the heterogeneous universe of services is investigated, using data provided by the 1993–1995 Italian innovation survey (CIS II). The empirical evidence presented shows that the “direct” impact of innovation on employment varies greatly according to the type of innovation strategy pursued by firms, across industries and according to the level of qualification of the labour force. High skilled and qualified jobs do replace low skilled jobs. Among small firms and in less than half of the service sectors considered the net effect is positive, particularly in industries which have a strong scientific and technological base. The negative impact of innovation on employment is on the contrary concentrated among large firms, capital intensive industries and in all financial-related sectors (banking, insurance and other financial services). In the latter industries the labour-saving effect of innovation seems to be linked to the widespread use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) which have contributed to rationalise and increase labour productivity in an important section of services. In the case of Italy, an overall negative impact of innovation on employment has been found. This result is clearly affected by the de-specialisation of the Italian economy in the knowledge intensive services. From an innovation-policy perspective two lines of actions can be envisaged: one enhancing efficiency in the technologically laggard service sectors and a second one aiming at creating the conditions for the emergence and growth of knowledge-intensive branches. The evidence presented suggests that both these lines of policy action are important but also that the second one is likely to be more rewarding in terms of employment growth. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study contributes to the debate on the premature deindustrialization of developing countries by analysing the contribution of services to aggregate productivity and output growth within a Kaldorian framework. The article revisits Kaldor's Growth Laws and empirically tests them for a number of economic activities, including four service branches across 29 developing economies in Asia, Latin America and sub‐Saharan Africa over three decades (1975–2005). Panel data estimations are complemented by a shift‐share decomposition of labour productivity growth. The findings support the Kaldorian argument for both manufacturing and business services' contribution to aggregate productivity growth. Conversely, other services slow down aggregate productivity and output growth. The authors suggest qualifying and repositioning the debate on premature deindustrialization within a broader reflection on the opportunities for development linked to structural change. The analysis claims that these opportunities might include not only manufacturing sectors, but also business services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]