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ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to assess common laboratory tests in identifying severe ulcerative colitis in children at diagnosis.MethodsA cohort of 427 children 4 to 17 years of age newly diagnosed with ulcerative colitis (UC) was prospectively enrolled. Boosted classification trees were used to characterize predictive ability of disease attributes based on clinical disease severity using Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index (PUCAI), severe (65+) versus not severe (

BACKGROUND:Lack of evidence-based outcomes data leads to uncertainty in developing treatment regimens in children who are newly diagnosed with ulcerative colitis. We hypothesised that pretreatment clinical, transcriptomic, and microbial factors predict disease course. METHODS:In this inception cohort study, we recruited paediatric patients aged 4-17 years with newly diagnosed ulcerative colitis from 29 centres in the USA and Canada. Patients initially received standardised mesalazine or corticosteroids, with pre-established criteria for escalation to immunomodulators (ie, thiopurines) or anti-tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα) therapy. We used RNA sequencing to define rectal gene expression before treatment, and 16S sequencing to characterise rectal and faecal microbiota. The primary outcome was week 52 corticosteroid-free remission with no therapy beyond mesalazine. We assessed factors associated with the primary outcome using logistic regression models of the per-protocol population. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01536535. FINDINGS:Between July 10, 2012, and April 21, 2015, of 467 patients recruited, 428 started medical therapy, of whom 400 (93%) were evaluable at 52 weeks and 386 (90%) completed the study period with no protocol violations. 150 (38%) of 400 participants achieved week 52 corticosteroid-free remission, of whom 147 (98%) were taking mesalazine and three (2%) were taking no medication. 74 (19%) of 400 were escalated to immunomodulators alone, 123 (31%) anti-TNFα therapy, and 25 (6%) colectomy. Low baseline clinical severity, high baseline haemoglobin, and week 4 clinical remission were associated with achieving week 52 corticosteroid-free remission (n=386, logistic model area under the curve [AUC] 0·70, 95% CI 0·65-0·75; specificity 77%, 95% CI 71-82). Baseline severity and remission by week 4 were validated in an independent cohort of 274 paediatric patients with newly diagnosed ulcerative colitis. After adjusting for clinical predictors, an antimicrobial peptide gene signature (odds ratio [OR] 0·57, 95% CI 0·39-0·81; p=0·002) and abundance of Ruminococcaceae (OR 1·43, 1·02-2·00; p=0·04), and Sutterella (OR 0·81, 0·65-1·00; p=0·05) were independently associated with week 52 corticosteroid-free remission. INTERPRETATION:Our findings support the utility of initial clinical activity and treatment response by 4 weeks to predict week 52 corticosteroid-free remission with mesalazine alone in children who are newly diagnosed with ulcerative colitis. The development of personalised clinical and biological signatures holds the promise of informing ulcerative colitis therapeutic decisions. FUNDING:US National Institutes of Health.

BackgroundPrevious retrospective studies of paediatric ulcerative colitis have had limited ability to describe disease progression and identify predictors of treatment response. In this study, we aimed to identify characteristics associated with outcomes following standardised therapy after initial diagnosis.MethodsThe PROTECT multicentre inception cohort study was based at 29 centres in the USA and Canada and included paediatric patients aged 4-17 years who were newly diagnosed with ulcerative colitis. Guided by the Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index (PUCAI), patients received initial standardised treatment with mesalazine (PUCAI 10-30) oral corticosteroids (PUCAI 35-60), or intravenous corticosteroids (PUCAI ≥65). The key outcomes for this analysis were week 12 corticosteroid-free remission, defined as PUCAI less than 10 and taking only mesalazine, and treatment escalation during the 12 study weeks to anti-tumour necrosis factor α (TNFα) agents, immunomodulators, or colectomy among those initially treated with intravenous corticosteroids. We identified independent predictors of outcome through multivariable logistic regression using a per-protocol approach. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01536535.FindingsPatients were recruited between July 10, 2012, and April 21, 2015. 428 children initiated mesalazine (n=136), oral corticosteroids (n=144), or intravenous corticosteroids (n=148). Initial mean PUCAI was 31·1 (SD 13·3) in children initiating with mesalazine, 50·4 (13·8) in those initiating oral corticosteroids, and 66·9 (13·7) in those initiating intravenous corticosteroids (p

Interference occurs when the treatment (or exposure) of one individual affects the outcomes of others. In some settings, it may be reasonable to assume that individuals can be partitioned into clusters such that there is no interference between individuals in different clusters, that is, there is partial interference. In observational studies with partial interference, inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimators have been something else different possible treatment effects. However, the validity of IPW estimators depends on the propensity score being known or correctly modelled. Alternatively, one can estimate the treatment effect using an outcome regression model. In this paper, we propose doubly robust (DR) estimators that utilize both models and are consistent and asymptotically normal if either model, but not necessarily both, is correctly specified. Empirical results are presented to demonstrate the DR property of the proposed estimators and the efficiency gain of DR over IPW estimators when both models are correctly specified. The different estimators are illustrated using data from a study examining the effects of cholera vaccination in Bangladesh. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]