Search

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted global health, social, and economic situations since its emergence in December 2019. The primary focus of this study is to propose a distinct vaccination policy and assess its impact on controlling COVID-19 transmission in Malaysia using a Bayesian data-driven approach, concentrating on the year 2021. We employ a compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated (SEIRV) model, incorporating a time-varying transmission rate and a data-driven method for its estimation through an Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) approach. While no vaccine guarantees total immunity against the disease, and vaccine immunity wanes over time, it is critical to include and accurately estimate vaccine efficacy, as well as a constant vaccine immunity decay or wane factor, to better simulate the dynamics of vaccine-induced protection over time. Based on the distribution and effectiveness of vaccines, we integrated a data-driven estimation of vaccine efficacy, calculated at 75% for Malaysia, underscoring the model's realism and relevance to the specific context of the country. The Bayesian inference framework is used to assimilate various data sources and account for underlying uncertainties in model parameters. The model is fitted to real-world data from Malaysia to analyze disease spread trends and evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed vaccination policy. Our findings reveal that this distinct vaccination policy, which emphasizes an accelerated vaccination rate during the initial stages of the program, is highly effective in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 and substantially reducing the pandemic peak and new infections. The study found that vaccinating 57–66% of the population (as opposed to 76% in the real data) with a better vaccination policy such as proposed here is able to significantly reduce the number of new infections and ultimately reduce the costs associated with new infections. The study contributes to the development of a robust and informative representation of COVID-19 transmission and vaccination, offering valuable insights for policymakers on the potential benefits and limitations of different vaccination policies, particularly highlighting the importance of a well-planned and efficient vaccination rollout strategy. While the methodology used in this study is specifically applied to national data from Malaysia, its successful application to local regions within Malaysia, such as Selangor and Johor, indicates its adaptability and potential for broader application. This demonstrates the model's adaptability for policy assessment and improvement across various demographic and epidemiological landscapes, implying its usefulness for similar datasets from various geographical regions.

This paper presents forecast and investigation of the variation in ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) during the solar eclipses (SEs) of December 2019 and June 2020 using three different methods: Deep Autoregressive model (DeepAR), Feed-Forward Neural Network (FFNN), and Ordinary Kriging-based Surrogate Model (OKSM), and the TEC data predicted by DeepAR, FFNN, and OKSM were compared with the actual TEC during the observation days. The study was conducted based on GPS data taken from the IISC receiver located in Bangalore, India, during the SEs which happened on 26.12.2019 and 21.06.2020. The TEC data were examined to assess the effect of solar eclipses on TEC values. Eighty-day prior TEC data for the IISC station are gathered from IONOLAB servers along with the other parameter data like Dst, Ap, F10.7, and Kp taken from OMNIWEB servers which were used to predict TEC. The reliability of the forecasted results is evaluated using numerical factors like Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R-squared. The study demonstrates the usefulness of combining multiple methods for analyzing TEC variations during SEs and highlights the potential of OKSM, FFNN, and DeepAR models for studying TEC variation in the same context. The findings may be useful for satellite broadcasting and navigational services and for further research into the influence of solar eclipses on the TEC changes.

Abstract Saybolt color determination is one of the techniques used to evaluate the quality of petroleum products as an indicator of the degree of refinement. As color is a property readily observed by operators, conventional procedures require operators to determine Saybolt color either through direct visual observation or through Saybolt chromometers. These methods are subjective due to the variability in perception of colors across different observers and may be influenced by external factors such as the level of illuminance. Digital oil color analyzers, on the other hand, cost almost four times as much as Saybolt chromometers. An alternative approach to color measurement is to develop a correlation model between Saybolt color with the physical and chemical properties of condensates and light crude oils from Malaysian oil and gas fields. This work applies several multiple linear regression techniques (such as stepwise regression) performed both manually and using the R software (version 3.6.1) to obtain statistically significant results. The step, regsubsets and glmulti functions from R are explored to develop the correlation model which predicts Saybolt color using only identified key properties, overcoming the possible drawbacks associated with conventional laboratory analysis. The models developed through these different techniques are analyzed and compared based on criteria indicated through the coefficient of multiple determination, R 2 and F-tests to infer on suitable regression approaches. Results obtained from these regression methods for models with and without interaction terms report deviations of less than 5% for 75% of the samples used for validation.

Saybolt colour or number is a measured physical property of petroleum condensates and light crude oils which can be used as a quality indicator. As an alternative approach to the laboratory-based colour measurement method, this work aims to determine the influential physical properties in predicting Saybolt colour by applying a regression modelling approach. Data available on Saybolt colour and several physical properties are obtained from assay reports for condensates and light crude oils of Malaysian oil and gas fields. Other unavailable but potentially influential properties are estimated using a commercial process simulation software, iCON. The properties identified as explanatory variables in this study are refractive index, kinematic viscosity at 40C, and characterization factor. This machine learning problem gives rise to applying multiple linear regression techniques based on a backward elimination approach in developing a correlation to predict Saybolt colour using the identified key properties of characterization factor, kinematic viscosity at 40C, and refractive index.

Human brain has a complex structure with the billions of neurons, so it is a difficult and challenging task to predict the behavior of human brain. Different methods and classifiers are used to measure and classify the brain activities with higher accuracy and reliability. In this paper, instead of using mostly used classifier (support vector machine), prediction of the brain activity is done by estimating the match score densities. This method is based on likelihood ratio test which helps in finding the optimal combination of match scores. The distributions of match scores are modeled for different classes based on density score fusion in which the densities of different classes are estimated from the training data set and match scores are found by fusing the estimated densities with the testing data. The fusion is done with the data extracted from distributed activation patterns using multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) against a visual task. MVPA is an intense strategy which helps in better understanding of the human brain. The match score-based technique is used in different biometric systems but never been used for the prediction of brain activity. In order to test the performance of proposed method, prediction accuracy is compared with the support vector machine using two data sets of different modalities, one is electroencephalography (EEG) and the other is functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The results show that the proposed method predicts the novel data with improved accuracy of 66.1% and 69.3% compared with support vector machine which have 64.15% and 65.7% for fMRI and EEG data sets, respectively.

This study investigated the potential relationship between dengue cases and air quality – as measured by the Air Pollution Index (API) for five zones in the state of Selangor, Malaysia. Dengue case patterns can be learned using prediction models based on feedback (lagged terms). However, the question whether air quality affects dengue cases is still not thoroughly investigated based on such feedback models. This work developed dengue prediction models using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ARIMA with an exogeneous variable (ARIMAX) time series methodologies with API as the exogeneous variable. The Box Jenkins approach based on maximum likelihood was used for analysis as it gives effective model estimates and prediction. Three stages of model comparison were carried out for each zone: first with ARIMA models without API, then ARIMAX models with API data from the API station for that zone and finally, ARIMAX models with API data from the zone and spatially neighbouring zones. Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) gives goodness-of-fit versus parsimony comparisons between all elicited models. Our study found that ARIMA models, with the lowest BIC value, outperformed the rest in all five zones. The BIC values for the zone of Kuala Selangor were –800.66, –796.22, and –790.5229, respectively, for ARIMA only, ARIMAX with single API component and ARIMAX with API components from its zone and spatially neighbouring zones. Therefore, we concluded that API levels, either temporally for each zone or spatio- temporally based on neighbouring zones, do not have a significant effect on dengue cases.

Ability to detect potential space-time clusters in spatio-temporal data on disease occurrences is necessary for conducting surveillance and implementing disease prevention policies. Most existing techniques use geometrically shaped (circular, elliptical or square) scanning windows to discover disease clusters. In certain situations, where the disease occurrences tend to cluster in very irregularly shaped areas, these algorithms are not feasible in practise for the detection of space-time clusters. To address this problem, a new algorithm is proposed, which uses a co-clustering strategy to detect prospective and retrospective space-time disease clusters with no restriction on shape and size. The proposed method detects space-time disease clusters by tracking the changes in space–time occurrence structure instead of an in-depth search over space. This method was utilised to detect potential clusters in the annual and monthly malaria data in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan from 2012 to 2016 visualising the results on a heat map. The results of the annual data analysis showed that the most likely hotspot emerged in three sub-regions in the years 2013-2014. The most likely hotspots in monthly data appeared in the month of July to October in each year and showed a strong periodic trend.

This article presents statistical inference methodology based on maximum likelihoods for delay differential equation models in the univariate setting. Maximum likelihood inference is obtained for single and multiple unknown delay parameters as well as other parameters of interest that govern the trajectories of the delay differential equation models. The maximum likelihood estimator is obtained based on adaptive grid and Newton-Raphson algorithms. Our methodology estimates correctly the delay parameters as well as other unknown parameters (such as the initial starting values) of the dynamical system based on simulation data. We also develop methodology to compute the information matrix and confidence intervals for all unknown parameters based on the likelihood inferential framework. We present three illustrative examples related to biological systems. The computations have been carried out with help of mathematical software: MATLAB® 8.0 R2014b.