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This paper compares the size distributions of cities when they are measured using gridded population and nighttime lights (NTLs) data. To do so, we exploit recent and accurate satellite imagery to proxy urban economic activity. Similarly to related studies, our results suggest that population is more equally distributed than lights at the country level. However, and calling assumptions established for urban NTLs into question, our findings do not support a Pareto function for their distribution. We also obtain evidence of a nonlinear and heterogeneous link between population and lights for a global sample of cities. Grounded on our empirical analysis, we develop a simple theoretical framework that relates the difference between the distributions of population and light emissions to the strength of agglomeration economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the long-run persistence of inequality in the U.S. With this aim, both income and wealth inequality measures covering the period from 1870 to 2019 have been analyzed. The persistent character of inequality has been assessed using unit root and structural break test statistics for time series. Furthermore, the determinants of inequality persistence have been explored by implementing Bayesian model averaging techniques in a generalized linear model framework. Our results suggest that the wealth-to-income ratio displays a non-stationary behavior throughout the whole sample period. On the contrary, the Gini index of disposable income and the top 10% income share alternate between I(0) and I(1) regimes. We also find that, while a higher level of globalization increases the persistence of income inequality, it is inversely related to the levels of educational attainment and trade union membership. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the determinants of terrorism at the sub-national level in Colombia during 2001–2014. In order to establish robust relationships, a Bayesian model averaging framework has been implemented using departmental data. We find that the violence suffered by this country is linked to economic factors, especially labor market outcomes. The results obtained are not significantly altered by the use of relative measures of terror, the specification of alternative parameters and model priors or the presence of spatial dependence. The main conclusion drawn from our analysis is that an appropriate strategy to fight against terrorism in similar contexts is to increase its opportunity cost. This might be achieved through the promotion of inclusive socioeconomic development, primarily in rural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an ensemble predictor for the weekly increase in the number of confirmed COVID‐19 cases in the city of New York at zip code level. Within a Bayesian model averaging framework, the baseline is a Poisson regression for count data. The set of covariates includes autoregressive terms, spatial effects, and demographic and socioeconomic variables. Our results for the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic show that these regressors are more significant to predict the number of new confirmed cases as the pandemic unfolds. Both pointwise and interval forecasts exhibit strong predictive ability in‐sample and out‐of‐sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper carries out a time series analysis of the Gini coefficient for disposable income in a sample that includes both advanced and emerging economies. Our results show that, in most countries, inequality has alternated between stationary and nonstationary regimes during the period 1960–2017. These changes coincide with the implementation of structural reforms and with periods of economic and, especially, financial distress. Our findings also suggest that the persistence of income inequality seems to be related to tax progressivity, income for top earners, and working conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the determinants of poverty in the U.S. at the census tract level. By proceeding in this way, potential aggregation errors that may occur when using larger areas as the unit of observation are avoided. Our empirical analysis exploits a geographically consistent data set covering the period 1970–2010 and all metropolitan statistical areas. The estimations have been carried out using a system generalized method of moments framework for dynamic panels. Our results show that poverty is a persistent phenomenon, especially in tracts with higher levels. Those variables with a more robust relationship with poverty reflect labor market conditions. We also obtain evidence of a higher vulnerability of women to poverty. These findings have been framed within the debate about the optimal design of local development strategies. The main conclusion drawn is that place‐based and person‐centered policies can be considered as complementary rather than as substitutes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces model uncertainty into the empirical study of the determinants of terrorism at country level. This is done by adopting a Bayesian model averaging approach and accounting for the over-dispersed count data nature of terrorist attacks. Both a broad measure of terrorism and incidents per capita have been analyzed. Our results suggest that, among the set of regressors considered, those reflecting labor market conditions and economic prospects tend to receive high posterior inclusion probabilities. These findings are robust to changes in the model specification and sample composition and are not meaningfully affected by the generalized linear regression model applied. Evidence of a geographically heterogeneous relationship between terrorism and its determinants is also provided. Abbreviation: BMA- Bayesian Model Averaging; GLM- Generalized Linear Models [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper studies the link between knowledge, innovation, and growth in European regions using nonparametric methods. Our findings suggest that knowledge inputs and the share of innovative firms have a heterogeneous and nonlinear relationship with growth. This evidence has been exploited to examine the consequences of alternative policies using a counterfactual estimation setup, the results of which imply that increasing the formal knowledge base may be optimal in most regions. Less knowledge and innovation intensive regions will also benefit from a higher innovation potential and from a trustworthy and entrepreneurial economic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the persistence of the shock caused by the American Civil War on the relative city size distribution of the USA. Two features make the study of this conflict interesting. First, it took place at an earlier stage of the industrialisation and urbanisation processes than those previously analysed in the related literature. Second, the battles were fought in the open field, not in urban areas. In line with previous results for the Second World War in Japanese and German cities, our findings suggest that the effects of the shock were transitory. Furthermore, some evidence regarding the possible presence of a ‘safe harbour effect’ is reported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the determinants of regional economic growth in the European Union adopting a non-parametric approach. Although the local-linear kernel estimator applied does not explicitly take into account the spatial dimension of the data, it is found to be consistent in our context. In addition, the geographically weighted regression turns out to be less efficient. We obtain evidence of a non-linear relationship between regional growth and its determinants in the form of parameter heterogeneity and threshold effects. These non-linearities mainly affect the initial productivity of labour, the human capital endowment and, as a novelty, the level of infrastructures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A reassessment of Gibrat’s Law in the context of country size is carried out in this paper. In addition, how similarly population is distributed in cities and countries is analyzed from a temporal perspective. Although evidence of Gibrat’s Law is found, it is weaker than that previously established in Rose (J Money Credit Bank 38(8):2225–2246, ). This is due to the methodology applied and is especially appreciable in very small countries. Nonetheless, we observe that the population growth process in countries is similar to that of cities. As a result, the similarities between how the population is distributed in these two geographical categories have increased over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the effects of legal reforms associated with defence and public procurement on firm performance. With this aim, a theoretical framework for the reaction of defence firms to regulatory changes is developed. Its predictions have been empirically assessed using the last reforms implemented in Spain. Our results suggest that these new regulations have allowed the main defence contractors to outperform the other defence contractors in terms of productivity, having no effect on profitability. These findings are in line with theoretical priors. Therefore, it can be claimed that governmental interventions have had an effect on firm performance. We also provide evidence that, while the procurement procedures and the contract law put into place in 2011 have principally affected the productivity of large firms, the centralization process established in 2014 has exerted a higher influence on SMEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]