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Summary Background Functional capacity is an important component of risk assessment for major surgery. Doctors' clinical subjective assessment of patients' functional capacity has uncertain accuracy. We did a study to compare preoperative subjective assessment with alternative markers of fitness (cardiopulmonary exercise testing [CPET], scores on the Duke Activity Status Index [DASI] questionnaire, and serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT pro-BNP] concentrations) for predicting death or complications after major elective non-cardiac surgery. Methods We did a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study at 25 hospitals: five in Canada, seven in the UK, ten in Australia, and three in New Zealand. We recruited adults aged at least 40 years who were scheduled for major non-cardiac surgery and deemed to have one or more risk factors for cardiac complications (eg, a history of heart failure, stroke, or diabetes) or coronary artery disease. Functional capacity was subjectively assessed in units of metabolic equivalents of tasks by the responsible anaesthesiologists in the preoperative assessment clinic, graded as poor ( 10). All participants also completed the DASI questionnaire, underwent CPET to measure peak oxygen consumption, and had blood tests for measurement of NT pro-BNP concentrations. After surgery, patients had daily electrocardiograms and blood tests to measure troponin and creatinine concentrations until the third postoperative day or hospital discharge. The primary outcome was death or myocardial infarction within 30 days after surgery, assessed in all participants who underwent both CPET and surgery. Prognostic accuracy was assessed using logistic regression, receiver-operating-characteristic curves, and net risk reclassification. Findings Between March 1, 2013, and March 25, 2016, we included 1401 patients in the study. 28 (2%) of 1401 patients died or had a myocardial infarction within 30 days of surgery. Subjective assessment had 19·2% sensitivity (95% CI 14·2–25) and 94·7% specificity (93·2–95·9) for identifying the inability to attain four metabolic equivalents during CPET. Only DASI scores were associated with predicting the primary outcome (adjusted odds ratio 0·96, 95% CI 0·83–0·99; p=0·03). Interpretation Subjectively assessed functional capacity should not be used for preoperative risk evaluation. Clinicians could instead consider a measure such as DASI for cardiac risk assessment. Funding Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, Ontario Ministry of Research, Innovation and Science, UK National Institute of Academic Anaesthesia, UK Clinical Research Collaboration, Australian and New Zealand College of Anaesthetists, and Monash University.

Hemodilutional anemia is associated with acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality in patients undergoing cardiac surgery by mechanisms that may include tissue hypoxia. Our hypothesis was to assess if changes in the potential hypoxic biomarkers, including methemoglobin and erythropoietin, correlated with a decrease in hemoglobin (Hb) concentration following hemodilution on cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). Arterial blood samples were taken from patients (n = 64) undergoing heart surgery and CPB at baseline, during CPB, following CPB, and in the intensive care unit (ICU). Potential hypoxic biomarkers were measured, including methemoglobin, plasma Hb, and erythropoietin. Data were analyzed by repeated measures one-way analysis of variance on ranks and linear regression. Hemoglobin levels decreased following CPB and methemoglobin increased in the ICU (P < 0.001 for both). No correlation was observed between the change in Hb and methemoglobin (P = 0.23). By contrast, reduced Hb on CPB correlated with increased lactate, reduced pH, and increased erythropoietin levels following CPB (P ≤ 0.004 for all). Increased plasma Hb (P < 0.001) also correlated with plasma erythropoietin levels (P < 0.001). These data support the hypothesis that erythropoietin rather than methemoglobin is a potential biomarker of anemia-induced tissue hypoxia. The observed relationships between decreased Hb during CPB and the increase in lactate, reduced pH, and increase in erythropoietin levels suggest that early changes in plasma erythropoietin may be a pragmatic early biomarker of anemia-induced renal hypoxia. Further study is required to determine if anemia-induced increases in erythropoietin may predict AKI in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01883713). Registered 21 June 2013.