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The increase in population and urbanisation of hilly regions have increased the risk due to landslides. This manuscript presents a data-driven approach with a random forest algorithm to estimate the projected area, length, travel distance, and width of landslides, using elevation and slope information. The method is tested for two different study areas (Idukki and Wayanad), using three different combinations of inputs. The input features considered were elevation ([Formula: see text]), tangential slope ([Formula: see text]), drop height ([Formula: see text]), angle of reach ([Formula: see text]) and the profile curvature ([Formula: see text]). A total of 144 models were considered and were evaluated using mean-absolute-error ([Formula: see text]) and root-mean-square-error (RMSE) values. The results indicate that, by using E and θ alone, the [Formula: see text] value in estimating the length values for flow-like landslides in Wayanad was reduced from 472.74 m to 204.64 m. Out of the 48 combinations considered, [Formula: see text] values have increased in seven cases and [Formula: see text] values in eight cases only. The pre-trained models are saved and used to develop an easy-to-use tool, which can bypass the complications associated with the existing statistical approaches. The tool can be used by untrained personnel for preliminary hazard assessment.

The frequency of occurrence of hydrogeological disasters (HGDs), as well as the persistence of their impacts, are not evenly distributed. Hazardous areas, by definition, are more prone to extreme events, while in densely urbanized regions, the impacts of these events tend to be more severe. The objective of this study is to investigate statistical relationships between urban and natural environment features and HGD occurrences. Taking Italian provinces as a comprehensive case study, we assessed the coefficient of determination, the χ ^2 test, and the p -value to determine the degree of statistical correlation between impact indicators and 57 hazard/risk/land management indicators, such as extension of at-risk areas or soil sealing. We discovered that HGDs persistence and frequency correlate best with an indicator describing the amount of soil sealing (i.e. urbanized soil) in medium-hazard areas. Building on that, a further dynamic analysis was carried out to investigate whether soil sealing trends changed significantly after the provinces were struck by HGDs. Our findings hold significant implications, challenging current policy norms. European directives and Italian national laws impose strict development restrictions in ‘high-hazard’ areas, but generally allow for urbanization in ‘medium-hazard’ areas, with only minor limitations. Moreover, a paradoxical positive urbanization trend is observed in the most sensitive areas, greater than in safer areas and generally unchanged after HGDs. This outcome highlights a critical gap in risk perception that reflects into territorial planning, decision-making processes, and existing policies.

Landslide susceptibility assessment using machine learning models is a popular and consolidated approach worldwide. The main constraint of susceptibility maps is that they are not adequate for temporal assessments: they are generated from static predisposing factors, allowing only a spatial prediction of landslides. Recently, some methodologies have been proposed to provide spatiotemporal landslides prediction starting from machine learning algorithms (e.g., combining susceptibility maps with rainfall thresholds), but the attempt to obtain a dynamic landslide probability map directly by applying machine learning models is still in the preliminary phase. This work provides a contribution to fix this gap, combining in a Random Forest (RF) algorithm a static indicator of the spatial probability of landslide occurrence (i.e., a classical susceptibility index) and a number of dynamic variables (i.e., seasonality and the rainfall amount cumulated over different reference periods). The RF implementation used in this work allows the calculation of the Out-of-Bag Error and depicts Partial Dependence Plots, two indices that were used to quantify the variables’ importance and to comprehend if the model outcomes are consistent with the triggering mechanism observed in the case of study (Metropolitan City of Florence, Italy). The goal of this research is not to set up a landslide probability map, but to 1) understand how to populate training and test datasets with observations sampled over space and time, 2) assess which rainfall variables are statistically more relevant for the identification of the time and location of landslides, and 3) test the dynamic application of RF in a forecasting model for the spatiotemporal prediction of landslides. The proposed dynamic methodology shows encouraging results, consistent with the actual knowledge of the physical mechanism of the triggering of shallow landslides (mainly influenced by short and intense rainfalls) and identifies some benchmark configurations that represents a promising starting point for future regional-scale applications of machine learning models to dynamic landslide probability assessment and early warning.

Soil thickness, intended as depth to bedrock, is a key input parameter for many environmental models. Nevertheless, it is often difficult to obtain a reliable spatially exhaustive soil thickness map in wide-area applications, and existing prediction models have been extensively applied only to test sites with shallow soil depths. This study addresses this limitation by showing the results of an application to a section of Wanzhou County (Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China), where soil thickness varies from 0 to ∼40 m. Two different approaches were used to derive soil thickness maps: a modified version of the geomorphologically indexed soil thickness (GIST) model, purposely customized to better account for the peculiar setting of the test site, and a regression performed with a machine learning algorithm, i.e., the random forest, combined with the geomorphological parameters of GIST (GIST-RF). Additionally, the errors of the two models were quantified, and validation with geophysical data was carried out. The results showed that the GIST model could not fully contend with the high spatial variability of soil thickness in the study area: the mean absolute error was 10.68 m with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 12.61 m, and the frequency distribution residuals showed a tendency toward underestimation. In contrast, GIST-RF returned a better performance with the mean absolute error of 3.52 m and RMSE of 4.56 m. The derived soil thickness map could be considered a critical fundamental input parameter for further analyses.

Despite the importance of Earth sciences in addressing the global challenges that humanity is presently facing, attention toward related disciplines has been witnessed to be globally declining at various levels, including education and university teaching. To increase students’ engagement and explore alternative teaching activities, a didactical experiment was carried out at the University of Florence (Italy); the teaching course, “basic elements of geomorphology”, was reorganized to include relevant elements of gamification. Parallel to the frontal lessons, a competition based on a recurring quiz game was conducted. This activity was called “Who wants to be a Geomorphologist?”, clearly paraphrasing a notorious TV show. During every lesson, a moment was included where the students used their mobile devices to access a series of quizzes that were previously prepared by the teacher to test the reasoning skills of the students and their abilities to make connections between distinct topics. A commercial educational app was used to organize the activity, run the quiz sessions, assign points, and update the leaderboard in real time. A quantitative evaluation procedure assessed the positive impacts in terms of supporting the learning process, improving the engagement in the teaching course, and fostering the liking for geomorphology.

This dataset collects tabular and geographical information about all hydrogeological disasters (landslides and floods) that occurred in Italy from 2013 to 2022 that caused such severe impacts as to require the declaration of national-level emergencies. The severity and spatiotemporal extension of each emergency are characterized in terms of duration and timing, funds requested by local administrations, funds approved by the national government, and municipalities and provinces hit by the event (further subdivided between those included in the emergency and those not, depending on whether relevant impacts were ascertained). Italian exposure to hydrogeological risk is portrayed strikingly: in the covered period, 123 emergencies affected Italy, all regions were struck at least once, and some provinces were struck more than 10 times. Damage declared by local institutions adds up to EUR 11,000,000,000, while national recovery funds add up to EUR 1,000,000,000. The dataset may foster further research on risk assessment, econometric analysis, public policy support, and decision-making implementation. Moreover, it provides systematic evidence helpful in raising awareness about hydrogeological risks affecting Italy.

Landslides are a worldwide natural hazard that cause more damage and casualties than other hazards. Therefore, social and economic losses can be reduced through a landslide quantitative risk assessment (QRA). In the last two decades, many attempts of quantitative analysis on various scales have been performed; nevertheless, the major difficulty of QRA lies in how precise and reliable the assessment should have to be useful. For this reason, in this paper, we analyzed different freely available datasets and some products of previous research to assess the soundness of the outcomes performed by a recent QRA of slow-moving landslides in the Arno River basin (Central Italy). The validation process was carried out by comparing the abovementioned datasets and two components of the selected QRA (hazard and risk). The obtained results showed a robust correlation between most of the testing dataset and risk components, highlighting the accuracy of the selected QRA.

Performing a reliable stability analysis of a landslide slope requires a good understanding of the internal geometries and an accurate characterisation of the geotechnical parameters of the identified strata. Geotechnical models are commonly based on geomorphological data combined with direct and intrusive geotechnical investigations. However, the existence of numerous empirical correlations between seismic parameters (e.g., S-wave velocity) and geotechnical parameters in the literature has made it possible to investigate areas that are difficult to reach with direct instrumentation. These correlations are often overlooked even though they enable a reduction in investigation costs and time. By means of geophysical tests, it is in fact possible to estimate the N-SPT value and derive the friction angle from results obtained from environmental seismic noise measurements. Despite the empirical character and a certain level of uncertainty derived from the estimation of geotechnical parameters, these are particularly useful in the preliminary stages of an emergency, when straight data are not available and on all those soils where other direct in situ tests are not reliable. These correlations were successfully applied to the Theilly landslide (Western Alps, Italy), where the geotechnical model was obtained by integrating the results of a multi-parameter geophysical survey (H/V seismic noise and ground-penetrating radar) with stratigraphic and geomorphological observations, digital terrain model and field survey data. The analysis of the triggering conditions of the landslide was conducted by means of hydrological–geotechnical modelling, evaluating the behaviour of the slope under different rainfall scenarios and considering (or not) the stabilisation interventions present on the slope. The results of the filtration analyses for all events showed a top-down saturation mechanism, which led to the formation of a saturated face with a maximum thickness of 5 m. Stability analyses conducted for the same events showed the development of a shallow landslide in the first few metres of saturated soil. The modelling results are compatible with the actual evolution of the phenomenon and allow us to understand the triggering mechanism, providing models to support future interventions.

This study proposes a regional landslide early warning system for Idukki (India), using a decisional algorithm. The algorithm forecasts the possibility of occurrence of landslide by comparing the rainfall thresholds with the cumulated rainfall values. The region has suffered severe socio-economic setbacks during the disastrous landslides that happened in 2018 and 2019. Rainfall thresholds are defined for Idukki, using the total amount of precipitation cumulated at different time intervals ranging from 1 to 30 days. The first three-day cumulative values were used for evaluating the effect of short-term rainfall and the remaining days for the effect of long-term rainfall. The derived thresholds were calibrated using historical landslides and rainfall data from 2009 to 2017, optimized to reduce the false alarms and then validated using the 2018 data. The validation results show that the model is effectively predicting 79% of the landslides that happened in the region during 2018 and can be easily integrated with a rainfall forecasting system for the prediction of landslides. The model can be further improved with the availability of better spatial and temporal resolution of rainfall data and can be used as an effective tool for predicting the occurrence of landslides.

Landslide hazard management usually requires time-consuming campaigns of data acquisition, elaboration, and modeling. However, in the post-emergency phase management, time is a factor, and simpler but faster methods of analysis are needed to support decisions even in the short-term. This paper analyzes the Theilly landslide (Western Italian Alps), which was recently affected by a series of reactivations. While some instrumental campaigns are being carried out to support the design of protection measures, simple tools are also needed to assess the hazard of future reactivations and to evaluate the possibility of damming the torrent at the footslope. Therefore, state-of-the-art empirical methods were used and customized for the specific case study: a set of intensity–duration rainfall thresholds depicting increasing hazard levels was defined to monitor and forecast possible reactivations, while a methodology based on hydro-morphometric indices was applied to the case of study, to assess the possible evolution scenarios (landslide that does not dam the river, formation of a stable dam, formation of an unstable dam), based on the landslide volume. The proposed empirical methodologies have the advantage of requiring only ready-available input data and quick elaborations, thus allowing the rapid set up of tools that could be used for hazard management.

The continuous monitoring of displacements occurring on the Earth surface by exploiting MTInSAR (Multi Temporal Interferometry SAR) Sentinel-1 data is a solid reality, as testified by the ongoing operational ground motion service in the Tuscany region (Central Italy). In this framework, anomalies of movement, i.e., accelerations or deceleration as seen by the time series of displacement of radar targets, are identified. In this work, a Machine Learning algorithm such as the Random Forest has been used to assess the probability of occurrence of the anomalies induced by slope instability and subsidence. About 20,000 anomalies (about 7000 and 13,000 for the slope instability and the subsidence, respectively) were collected between 2018 and 2020 and were used as input, while ten different variables were selected, five related to the morphological and geological setting of the study area and five to the radar characteristics of the data. The resulting maps may provide useful indications of where a sudden change of displacement trend may occur, analyzing the contribution of each factor. The cross-validation with the anomalies collected in a following timespan (2020–2021) and with official landslide and subsidence inventories provided by the regional authority has confirmed the reliability of the final maps. The adoption of a map for assessing the probability of the occurrence of MTInSAR anomalies may serve as an enhanced geohazard prevention measurement, to be periodically updated and refined in order to have the most precise knowledge possible of the territory.

One of the main constraints in assessing shallow landslide hazards through physically based models is the need to characterize the geotechnical parameters of the involved materials. Indeed, the quantity and quality of input data are closely related to the reliability of the results of every model used, therefore data acquisition is a critical and time-consuming step in every research activity. In this perspective, we reviewed all official certificates of tests performed through 30 years at the Geotechnics Laboratory of the Earth Science Department (University of Firenze, Firenze, Italy), compiling a dataset in which 380 points are accurately geolocated and provide information about one or more geotechnical parameters used in slope stability modeling. All tests performed in the past (in the framework of previous research programs, agreements of cooperation, or to support didactic activities) were gathered, homogenized, digitalized, and geotagged. The dataset is based on both on-site tests and laboratory tests, it accounts for 40 attributes, among which 13 are descriptive (e.g., lithology or location) and 27 may be of direct interest in slope stability modeling as input parameters. The dataset is made openly available and can be useful for scientists or practitioners committed to landslide modeling.

Distributed physically based slope stability models usually provide outputs representing, on a pixel basis, the probability of failure of each cell. This kind of result, although scientifically sound, from an operational point of view has several limitations. First, the procedure of validation lacks standards. As instance, it is not straightforward to decide above which percentage of failure probability a pixel (or larger spatial units) should be considered unstable. Second, the validation procedure is a time-consuming task, usually requiring a long series of GIS operations to overlap landslide inventories and model outputs to extract statistically significant performance metrics. Finally, if model outputs are conceived to be used in the operational management of landslide hazard (e.g., early warning procedures), the pixeled probabilistic output is difficult to handle and a synthesis to characterize the hazard scenario over larger spatial units is usually required to issue warnings aimed at specific operational procedures. In this work, a tool is presented that automates the validation procedure for physically based distributed probabilistic slope stability models and translates the pixeled outputs in warnings released over larger spatial units like small watersheds. The tool is named DTVT (double-threshold validation tool) because it defines a warning criterion on the basis of two threshold values—the probability of failure above which a pixel should be considered stable (failure probability threshold, FPT) and the percentage of unstable pixels needed in each watershed to consider the hazard level widespread enough to justify the issuing of an alert (instability diffusion threshold, IDT). A series of GIS operations were organized in a model builder to reaggregate the raw instability maps from pixels to watershed; draw the warning maps; compare them with an existing landslide inventory; build a contingency matrix counting true positives, true negatives, false positive, and false negatives; and draw in a map the results of the validation. The DTVT tool was tested in an alert zone of the Aosta Valley (northern Italy) to investigate the high sensitivity of the results to the values selected for the two thresholds. Moreover, among 24 different configurations tested, we performed a quantitative comparison to identify which criterion (in the case of our study, there was an 85% or higher failure probability in 5% or more of the pixels of a watershed) produces the most reliable validation results, thus appearing as the most promising candidate to be used to issue alerts during civil protection warning activities.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a new set of environmental indicators for the fast estimation of landslide risk over very wide areas. Using Italy (301,340 km2) as a test case, landslide susceptibility maps and soil sealing/land consumption maps were combined to derive a spatially distributed indicator (LRI—landslide risk index), then an aggregation was performed using Italian municipalities as basic spatial units. Two indicators were defined, namely ALR (averaged landslide risk) and TLR (total landslide risk). All data were processed using GIS programs. Conceptually, landslide susceptibility maps account for landslide hazard while soil sealing maps account for the spatial distribution of anthropic elements exposed to risk (including buildings, infrastructure, and services). The indexes quantify how much the two issues overlap, producing a relevant risk and can be used to evaluate how each municipality has been prudent in planning sustainable urban growth to cope with landslide risk. The proposed indexes are indicators that are simple to understand, can be adapted to various contexts and at various scales, and could be periodically updated, with very low effort, making use of the products of ongoing governmental monitoring programs of Italian environment. Of course, the indicators represent an oversimplification of the complexity of landslide risk, but this is the first time that a landslide risk indicator has been defined in Italy at the national scale, starting from landslide susceptibility maps (although Italy is one of the European countries most affected by hydro-geological hazards) and, more in general, the first time that land consumption maps are integrated into a landslide risk assessment.

The influence of vegetation on mechanical and hydrological soil behavior represents a significant factor to be considered in shallow landslides modelling. Among the multiple effects exerted by vegetation, root reinforcement is widely recognized as one of the most relevant for slope stability. Lately, the literature has been greatly enriched by novel research on this phenomenon. To investigate which aspects have been most treated, which results have been obtained and which aspects require further attention, we reviewed papers published during the period of 2015–2020 dealing with root reinforcement. This paper—after introducing main effects of vegetation on slope stability, recalling studies of reference—provides a synthesis of the main contributions to the subtopics: (i) approaches for estimating root reinforcement distribution at a regional scale; (ii) new slope stability models, including root reinforcement and (iii) the influence of particular plant species, forest management, forest structure, wildfires and soil moisture gradient on root reinforcement. Including root reinforcement in slope stability analysis has resulted a topic receiving growing attention, particularly in Europe; in addition, research interests are also emerging in Asia. Despite recent advances, including root reinforcement into regional models still represents a research challenge, because of its high spatial and temporal variability: only a few applications are reported about areas of hundreds of square kilometers. The most promising and necessary future research directions include the study of soil moisture gradient and wildfire controls on the root strength, as these aspects have not been fully integrated into slope stability modelling.

Landslides are frequent and widespread destructive processes causing casualties and damage worldwide [...]

Landslides are natural disasters which can create major setbacks to the socioeconomic of a region. Destructive landslides may happen in a quick time, resulting in severe loss of lives and properties. Landslide Early Warning Systems (LEWS) can reduce the risk associated with landslides by providing enough time for the authorities and the public to take necessary decisions and actions. LEWS are usually based on statistical rainfall thresholds, but this approach is often associated to high false alarms rates. This manuscript discusses the development of an integrated approach, considering both rainfall thresholds and field monitoring data. The method was implemented in Kalimpong, a town in the Darjeeling Himalayas, India. In this work, a decisional algorithm is proposed using rainfall and real-time field monitoring data as inputs. The tilting angles measured using MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) tilt sensors were used to reduce the false alarms issued by the empirical rainfall thresholds. When critical conditions are exceeded for both components of the systems (rainfall thresholds and tiltmeters), authorities can issue an alert to the public regarding a possible slope failure. This approach was found effective in improving the performance of the conventional rainfall thresholds. We improved the efficiency of the model from 84% (model based solely on rainfall thresholds) to 92% (model with the integration of field monitoring data). This conceptual improvement in the rainfall thresholds enhances the performance of the system significantly and makes it a potential tool that can be used in LEWS for the study area.

Several countries worldwide are funding large-scale programs to mitigate landslide risk by implementing engineering remedial works. However, the overall effectiveness of such measures is rarely monitored, and they are typically performed at the slope scale without fully exploiting the wide-area capabilities of remote sensing technologies. A multi-scale and multi-source monitoring procedure for evaluating the slope stability and the effectiveness of related remedial works was proposed in this study and applied in the middle section of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA), China. The area is highly exposed to landslide hazards, and a massive program of engineering remedial works was recently implemented. Satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)-based techniques were first exploited at the regional scale with the objective to provide a general overview of the deformative scenario and to highlight localized problems (active landslides or high deformation zones) to be further investigated; then, local-scale field investigation and multi-source ground monitoring data were employed to verify the deforming states of active landslides and to evaluate the effectiveness of the landslide engineering remedial works. The results indicated that, among the 310 mapped landslides in the study area, 52 were identified to be active and in a slow-moving state by satellite InSAR; Among the 58 controlled landslides, 9 of them were suspected to be active in a slow-moving state and require further concern. Particular attention was paid to two controlled landslides that were found in a continuously and progressively deforming state. We observed that the regional-scale program of slope stabilization was highly successful; however, the variation of the surrounding environmental setting could have led to landslide reactivation or partial invalidation of the landslide remedial works. The proposed multi-scale and multi-source monitoring framework is low-cost, easy to perform, and very straightforward to communicate to citizens and authorities. It can be easily implemented with very wide areas to assess the slope stability and to investigate the effectiveness of large-scale governmental risk mitigation programs, identifying precursor signals that could allow for intervention before reaching critical conditions.

Landslide susceptibility maps are widely used in landslide hazard management. Although many models have been proposed, mapping unit definition is a matter that still needs to be fully examined. In the literature, the most reported mapping units are pixels and slope units, while in this work, developed in the Rio de Janeiro region (Brazil), the use of drainage basins as a mapping unit is examined; even if their use leads to the definition of maps with a coarser spatial resolution than pixels-based maps, they convey information that can be easily and rapidly handled by civil defense organizations. However, for the morphometrical characterization of entire basins, a standardized procedure does not exist, and the susceptibility results may be sensitive to the approach used. To investigate this issue, a random forest model was used to assess landslide susceptibility, using 12 independent variables: four categorical (land use, soil type, lithology and slope orientation) and eight numerical variables (slope gradient, elevation, slope curvature, profile curvature, planar curvature, flow accumulation, topographic wetness index, stream power index). For each basin, the numerical variables were aggregated according to different approaches, which, in turn, were used to set up four different model configurations: i) maximum values, ii) mean values, iii) standard deviation values, iv) joint use of all the above. The resulting maps showed noticeable differences and a quantitative validation procedure showed that the best configurations were the ones based on mean values of independent variables, and the one based on the combination of all the values of the numerical variables. The main outcomes of this work consist of a landslide susceptibility map of the study area, to be used in operational procedures of risk management and in some insights on the best approaches to aggregate raster cell data into wider spatial units.

Soil sealing is the destruction or covering of natural soils by totally or partially impermeable artificial material. ISPRA (Italian Institute for Environmental Protection Research) uses different remote sensing techniques to monitor this process and updates yearly a national-scale soil sealing map of Italy. In this work, for the first time, we tried to combine soil sealing indicators as additional parameters within a landslide susceptibility assessment. Four new parameters were derived from the raw soil sealing map: Soil sealing aggregation (percentage of sealed soil within each mapping unit), soil sealing (categorical variable expressing if a mapping unit is mainly natural or sealed), urbanization (categorical variable subdividing each unit into natural, semi-urbanized, or urbanized), and roads (expressing the road network disturbance). These parameters were integrated with a set of well-established explanatory variables in a random forest landslide susceptibility model and different configurations were tested: Without the proposed soil-sealing-derived variables, with all of them contemporarily, and with each of them separately. Results were compared in terms of AUC ((area under receiver operating characteristics curve, expressing the overall effectiveness of each configuration) and out-of-bag-error (estimating the relative importance of each variable). We found that the parameter “soil sealing aggregation” significantly enhanced the model performances. The results highlight the potential relevance of using soil sealing maps on landslide hazard assessment procedures.

Recurring landslides in the Western Ghats have become an important concern for authorities, considering the recent disasters that occurred during the 2018 and 2019 monsoons. Wayanad is one of the highly affected districts in Kerala State (India), where landslides have become a threat to lives and properties. Rainfall is the major factor which triggers landslides in this region, and hence, an early warning system could be developed based on empirical rainfall thresholds considering the relationship between rainfall events and their potential to initiate landslides. As an initial step in achieving this goal, a detailed study was conducted to develop a regional scale rainfall threshold for the area using intensity and duration conditions, using the landslides that occurred during the years from 2010 to 2018. Detailed analyses were conducted in order to select the most effective method for choosing a reference rain gauge and rainfall event associated with the occurrence of landslides. The study ponders the effect of the selection of rainfall parameters for this data-sparse region by considering four different approaches. First, a regional scale threshold was defined using the nearest rain gauge. The second approach was achieved by selecting the most extreme rainfall event recorded in the area, irrespective of the location of landslide and rain gauge. Third, the classical definition of intensity was modified from average intensity to peak daily intensity measured by the nearest rain gauge. In the last approach, four different local scale thresholds were defined, exploring the possibility of developing a threshold for a uniform meteo-hydro-geological condition instead of merging the data and developing a regional scale threshold. All developed thresholds were then validated and empirically compared to find the best suited approach for the study area. From the analysis, it was observed that the approach selecting the rain gauge based on the most extreme rainfall parameters performed better than the other approaches. The results are useful in understanding the sensitivity of Intensity–Duration threshold models to some boundary conditions such as rain gauge selection, the intensity definition and the strategy of subdividing the area into independent alert zones. The results were discussed with perspective on a future application in a regional scale Landslide Early Warning System (LEWS) and on further improvements needed for this objective.

Rainfall-induced landslides are among the most devastating natural disasters in hilly terrains and the reduction of the related risk has become paramount for public authorities. Between the several possible approaches, one of the most used is the development of early warning systems, so as the population can be rapidly warned, and the loss related to landslide can be reduced. Early warning systems which can forecast such disasters must hence be developed for zones which are susceptible to landslides, and have to be based on reliable scientific bases such as the SIGMA (sistema integrato gestione monitoraggio allerta—integrated system for management, monitoring and alerting) model, which is used in the regional landslide warning system developed for Emilia Romagna in Italy. The model uses statistical distribution of cumulative rainfall values as input and rainfall thresholds are defined as multiples of standard deviation. In this paper, the SIGMA model has been applied to the Kalimpong town in the Darjeeling Himalayas, which is among the regions most affected by landslides. The objectives of the study is twofold: (i) the definition of local rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences in the Kalimpong region; (ii) testing the applicability of the SIGMA model in a physical setting completely different from one of the areas where it was first conceived and developed. To achieve these purposes, a calibration dataset of daily rainfall and landslides from 2010 to 2015 has been used; the results have then been validated using 2016 and 2017 data, which represent an independent dataset from the calibration one. The validation showed that the model correctly predicted all the reported landslide events in the region. Statistically, the SIGMA model for Kalimpong town is found to have 92% efficiency with a likelihood ratio of 11.28. This performance was deemed satisfactory, thus SIGMA can be integrated with rainfall forecasting and can be used to develop a landslide early warning system.

Landslides are one of the most devastating and recurring natural disasters and have affected several mountainous regions across the globe. The Indian Himalayan region is no exception to landslide incidences affecting key economic sectors such as transportation and agriculture and often leading to loss of lives. As reflected in the global landslide dataset, most of the landslides in this region are rainfall triggered. The region is prone to 15% of the global rainfall-induced landslides, and thereby a review of the studies in the region is inevitable. The high exposure to landslide risk has made the Indian Himalayas receive growing attention by the landslides community. A review of landslides studies conducted in this region is therefore important to provide a general picture of the state-of-the-art, a reference point for researchers and practitioners working in this region for the first time, and a summary of the improvements most urgently needed to better address landslide hazard research and management. This article focuses on various studies ranging from forecasting and monitoring to hazard and susceptibility analysis. The various factors used to analyze landslide are also studied for various landslide zones in the region. The analysis reveals that there are several avenues where significant research work is needed such as the inclusion of climate change factors or the acquisition of basic data of highest quality to be used as input data for computational models. In addition, the review reveals that, despite the entire region being highly landslide prone, most of the studies have focused on few regions and large areas have been neglected. The aim of the review is to provide a reference for stakeholders and researchers who are currently or looking to work in the Indian Himalayas, to highlight the shortcomings and the points of strength of the research being conducted, and to provide a contribution in addressing the future developments most urgently needed to obtain a consistent advance in landslide risk reduction of the area.

We propose a methodology to couple rainfall thresholds and susceptibility maps for dynamic landslide hazard assessment at regional scale. Both inputs are combined in a purposely-built hazard matrix to get a spatially and temporally variable definition of landslide hazard: while statistical rainfall thresholds are used to accomplish a temporal forecasting with very coarse spatial resolution, landslide susceptibility maps provide static spatial information about the probability of landslide occurrence at fine spatial resolution. The test site is the Northern part of Tuscany (Italy), where a recent landslide susceptibility map and a set of recently updated rainfall thresholds are available. These products were modified and updated to meet the requirements of the proposed procedure: the susceptibility map was reclassified and the threshold set was expanded defining additional thresholds. The hazard matrix combines three susceptibility classes (S1, low susceptibility; S2 medium susceptibility; S3 high susceptibility) and three rainfall rate classes (R1, R2, R3), defining five hazard classes, from H0 (null hazard) to H4 (high hazard). A key passage of the procedure is the appropriate calibration and validation of the matrix, letting the hazard classes have a precise meaning in terms of expected consequences and hazard management. The employ of the proposed procedure in a regional warning system brings two main advantages: (i) it is possible to better hypothesize when and where landslide are expected and with which hazard degree, thus fostering a more effective hazard and risk management (e.g., setting priorities of intervention); (ii) the spatial resolution of the regional scale warning system is markedly refined because from time to time the areas where landslides are expected represent only a fraction of the alert zone.

In 2011 Brazil experienced the worst disaster in the country’s history. There were 918 deaths and thousands made homeless in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro State due to several landslides triggered by heavy rainfalls. This area constantly suffers high volumes of rain and episodes of landslides. Due to these experiences, we used the MaCumBa (Massive CUMulative Brisk Analyser) software to identify rainfall intensity−duration thresholds capable of triggering landslides in the most affected municipalities of this region. More than 3000 landslides and rain data from a 10-year long dataset were used to define the thresholds and one year was used to validate the results. In this work, a set of three thresholds capable of defining increasing alert levels (moderate, high and very high) has been defined for each municipality. Results show that such thresholds may be used for early alerts. In the future, the same methodology can be replicated to other Brazilian municipalities with different datasets, leading to more accurate warning systems.

SIGMA is a regional landslide warning system based on statistical rainfall thresholds that operates in Emilia Romagna (Italy). In this work, we depict its birth and the continuous development process, still ongoing, after two decades of operational employ. Indeed, a constant work was carried out to gather and incorporate in the modeling new data (extended rainfall recordings, updated landslides inventories, temperature and soil moisture data). The use of these data allowed for regular updates of the model and some conceptual improvements, which consistently increased the forecasting effectiveness of the warning system through time. Landslide forecasting at regional scale is a very complex task, but this paper shows that, as time passes by, the systematic gathering and analysis of new data and the continuous progresses of research activity, uncertainties can be progressively reduced. Thus, by the setting up of forward-looking research programs, the performances and the reliability of regional scale warning systems can be increased with time.