Search

Deep convection, or open-ocean convection, occurs in the higher latitude regions of the world and is an important ocean circulation process. It is formed when the stable density gradient along the ocean column is eroded by surface buoyancy loss, leading to an overturning that can span the entire depth of the column. In the western basin of the Mediterranean Sea (Med. Sea), this process can occur in the Gulf of Lion (GOL) and assists in the thermohaline circulation of the sea by forming the Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW), which then laterally spreads throughout the western basin. Significant deep convection events occur every few years in the GOL, driven by the Mistral and Tramontane winds and the seasonal atmospheric change. However, in the future these events are expected to stop altogether due to increasing stratification. In this presentation, the changes in atmospheric forcing and stratification in the GOL are examined to determine the driving factor behind the collapse of the deep convection process in the region. This task is completed using NEMO simulations driven by the CMIP6 results of Météo France's RCSM6 regional model. The years from 2015 to 2100 are studied, under the SSP5 8.5 scenario (the worst case SSP scenario). Two sets of simulations are presented, a control and seasonal set. The seasonal set was forced with filtered atmospheric forcing to remove the effect of the Mistral and Tramontane. Comparing the two sets allows to determine the effects of the Mistral and atmospheric forcing separately. Results show an evolution in atmospheric forcing that effectively leads to no net change over time in the energy fluxes at the surface of the ocean. However, the stratification in the gulf increases, driven by advected stratification, with temperature as the primary advected quantity increasing stratification.

The Mediterranean Sea, a global climate change hot-spot region, has experienced an increase in marine heatwave (MHW) frequency and intensity since the early 1990s. These extreme events have been associated with a range of local-ecological impacts in the basin, which hosts a large marine biodiversity in addition to 480 million inhabitants along its coasts. According to 21st century projections, the increasing MHW trends are likely to continue in the Mediterranean Sea. This calls for a deeper understanding of MHW drivers that can lead to a higher degree of MHW predictability. Therefore, this study investigates the dominant physical processes behind an ensemble of past Mediterranean MHWs, using the output of a dedicated, fully-coupled regional climate system model in hindcast mode, over the 1980-2018 period. In particular, we explore the vertical signature of multiple events in a local scale through “online” diagnostics of a mixed layer heat budget, where we disentangle the relative role of local-scale dynamics (e.g air-sea interactions, ocean currents, entrainment, mixing) during their development and decline. Preliminary results indicate a key role of atmosphere heat fluxes, wind forcing and vertical mixing on most events and a predominant horizontal advection presence only at smaller-scale. We present here a statistical overview of the dominant MHW drivers at the regional scale, across seasons and different regions in the Mediterranean basin, providing stakeholders and economy sectors affected by these marine extreme events, with critical information on their causes.

One of the Mediterranean hotspots for extreme precipitation is the coastal mountainous eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps regions, which are often affected by heavy precipitation events (HPEs) that can cause severe damage. Representing these events at different time scales and projecting their future evolution using regional climate models (RCMs) remains a key modelling challenge. This study evaluates the impact of model configuration on the representation of extreme daily precipitation in an RCM at climatological (1979–2012) and event scales (HPEs). Additionally, the impact of the spectral nudging (SN) technique is analysed. We compare two CNRM-ALADIN model configurations, and perform several sensitivity tests on specific parameters within a configuration. All simulations are driven by the ERA-Interim re-analysis over the Med-CORDEX domain at 0.11° horizontal resolution. On all examined time scales, model configuration shows a considerable impact on the mean and extreme daily precipitation. The new physical parameterizations of moist processes show improvement at the climatological (precipitation intensity, extreme precipitation and frequency of light precipitation) and event (the occurrence, spatial pattern and structure of HPEs) scales. Extreme precipitation shows limited sensitivity to specific parameters and is highly dependent on HPE. The use of SN improves the temporal variability at climatological scales and the location and occurrence of HPEs. We conclude that extreme precipitation representation in CNRM- ALADIN is more sensitive to change in the model configuration, particularly in the physical parameterizations, than to the application of SN. This study shows that the development and advancement of physical parameterizations can improve the model representation of extreme precipitation at several time scales and can therefore be considered as a means to reduce uncertainties in future climate projections.

The collaboration between the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) provides open access to an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, across the 14 CORDEX continental-scale domains, with global coverage. These simulations have been used as a new line of evidence to assess regional climate projections in the latest contribution of the Working Group I (WGI) to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), particularly in the regional chapters and the Atlas. Here, we present the work done in the framework of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to assemble a consistent worldwide CORDEX grand ensemble, aligned with the deadlines and activities of IPCC AR6. This work addressed the uneven and heterogeneous availability of CORDEX ESGF data by supporting publication in CORDEX domains with few archived simulations and performing quality control. It also addressed the lack of comprehensive documentation by compiling information from all contributing regional models, allowing for an informed use of data. In addition to presenting the worldwide CORDEX dataset, we assess here its consistency for precipitation and temperature by comparing climate change signals in regions with overlapping CORDEX domains, obtaining overall coincident regional climate change signals. The C3S CORDEX dataset has been used for the assessment of regional climate change in the IPCC AR6 (and for the interactive Atlas) and is available through the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS)., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103 (12), ISSN:0003-0007, ISSN:1520-0477

Important discrepancies in the large-scale summer climate change projections were recently detected between the global and regional climate models (RCM/GCM) in the EURO-CORDEX ensemble for several variables including surface temperature, total precipitation, and surface solar radiation. In this study, we use a new experimental framework inspired by the Big-Brother-Little-Brother protocol to explore the mechanisms responsible for generating large-scale discrepancies in future projections between GCM/RCM pairs over Europe in summer. Starting from past and future simulations with a perfect GCM/RCM pair (same resolution, same physics, same forcings), we then disentangle the role of potential sources of GCM/RCM inconsistency by carrying out targeted sensitivity studies. We show that by following such a perfect approach, it is possible to obtain a GCM/RCM pair without statistically significant inconsistencies in projected climate change. Such discrepancies are mainly generated by differences in aerosols representation and atmospheric physics. The role of plant physiology is limited and unlikely to be the dominant factor in the detected discrepancies. Finally, it is unlikely that the discrepancies in the EURO-CORDEX ensemble projections are a result of the upscaled added value, as we show that the effect of increased resolution is not strong enough and mostly limited to areas with complex topography. These findings raise important questions about the current practices in regional climate modelling. In the short term, implementing RCM external forcings consistent with the driving GCM can significantly improve the situation at low cost. In the long term, adopting a seamless strategy in developing the GCM/RCM models should be questioned.

List of the contributing institutes, contact points, coupled Regional Climate System Models and their status used for the Med-CORDEX Baseline Runs, phase 1, 2 and 3. Phase 1 and phase 2 correspond to the first phase of CORDEX. Phase 3 corresponds to the CORDEX-CMIP6 initiative. Note that contrary to most of the CORDEX RCMs, the Med-CORDEX models are full-coupled ocean-atmosphere RCMs. Some models also includes river coupling, ocean biogeochemistry or interactive aerosols.

List of the ERA5-driven simulations for the Med-CORDEX-CMIP6 Baseline Runs. These runs correspond to the Phase 3 of Med-CORDEX Note that contrary to most of the CORDEX RCMs, the Med-CORDEX models are full-coupled ocean-atmosphere RCMs. Some models also includes river coupling, ocean biogeochemistry or interactive aerosols.

Modelling the rare but high-impact Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events (HPEs) at climate scale remains a largely open scientific challenge. The issue is adressed here by running a 38-year-long continuous simulation of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model (CP-RCM) at a 2.5 km horizontal resolution and over a large pan-Alpine domain. First, the simulation is evaluated through a basic Eulerian statistical approach via a comparison with selected high spatial and temporal resolution observational datasets. Northwestern Mediterranean fall extreme precipitation is correctly represented by CNRM-AROME at a daily scale and even better at an hourly scale, in terms of location, intensity, frequency and interannual variability, despite an underestimation of daily and hourly highest intensities above 200 mm/day and 40 mm/h, respectively. A comparison of the CP-RCM with its forcing convection-parameterised 12.5 km Regional Climate Model (RCM) demonstrates a clear added value for the CP-RCM, confirming previous studies. Secondly, an object-oriented Lagrangian approach is proposed with the implementation of a precipitating system detection and tracking algorithm, applied to the model and the reference COMEPHORE precipitation dataset for twenty fall seasons. Using French Mediterranean HPEs as objects, CNRM-AROME’s ability to represent the main characteristics of fall convective systems and tracks is highlighted in terms of number, intensity, area, duration, velocity and severity. Further, the model is able to simulate long-lasting and severe extreme fall events similar to observations. However, it fails to reproduce the precipitating systems and tracks with the highest intensities (maximum intensities above 40 mm/h) well, and the model’s tendency to overestimate the cell size increases with intensity.

This study is focusing on the past and, in particular, the present of the ALADIN-Climate model used at the Hungarian Meteorological Service. The currently applied model version is 5.2 (HMS-ALADIN52). In the recent experiments, the CNRM-CM5 global model outputs were downscaled in two steps to 10 km horizontal resolution over Central and Southeast Europe using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Temperature and precipitation projections are analyzed for 2021-2050 and 2071–2100 with respect to the reference period of 1971–2000 with focus on Hungary. The results are evaluated in comparison to 26 simulations selected from the 12 km horizontal resolution Euro-CORDEX projection ensemble (including two additional versions of ALADIN-Climate: CNRM-ALADIN53 and CNRM-ALADIN63) to get more information about the projection uncertainties over Hungary and to assess the representativeness of HMS-ALADIN52. The HMS-ALADIN52 simulations project a clear warming trend in Central and Southeast Europe, which is more remarkable in case of greater radiative forcing change (RCP8.5). From the 2040s, the Euro-CORDEX simulations start to diverge using different scenarios. The total range of the annual change over Hungary is 1.3–3.3 °C with RCP4.5 and 3.2–5.7 °C with RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. HMS-ALADIN52 results are approximately near to the median: 2.9 °C with RCP4.5 and 4 °C with RCP8.5. CNRM-ALADIN53 shows generally similar results to HMS-ALADIN52, but simulations with CNRM-ALADIN63 indicate higher changes compared to both. In terms of seasonal mean precipitation change, the HMS-ALADIN52 simulations assume an increase between 9% and 33% (less in spring, more in autumn) over Hungary in both periods and with both scenarios. Most of the selected Euro-CORDEX simulations show a precipitation increase, apart from summer, when growth and reduction can be equally expected in 2021–2050, and the drying tendency continues towards the end of the century. Increase projected by HMS-ALADIN52 is mostly confirmed by CNRM-ALADIN53, while CNRM-ALADIN63 predicts precipitation decrease in summer. Precipitation results do not show a significantly striking difference between the scenarios, likely due to the fact that internal variability and model uncertainty are more relevant sources of uncertainty in precipitation projections over our region.

International audience; We investigated the effects of variations in the 4 primary mid-latitude large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on nutrients potentially limiting phytoplankton growth in the Mediterranean Sea (nitrate and phosphate), with a focus on the key deep convective areas of the basin (Gulf of Lions, Southern Adriatic Sea, Southern Aegean Sea and Rhodes Gyre). Monthly indices of these 4 modes of variability, together with a high-resolution hindcast of the Mediterranean Sea physics and biogeochemistry covering the period 1961-1999, were used to determine the physical mechanisms explaining the influence of these patterns on nutrient distribution and variability. We found a decrease in the concentration of phosphate and nitrate for each unit of increase in the index values of the East Atlantic and East Atlantic/Western Russian variability modes in the area of the Gulf of Lions, while a signal of the opposite sign was associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Aegean Sea and Rhodes Gyre. In both cases, the variability observed was related to a significant variation in the mixed layer depth driven by heat losses and wind stress over the areas. The East Atlantic pattern played a major role in driving the long-term dynamics of both phosphate and nitrate availability in the Gulf of Lions, with a particularly pronounced effect in December and January. For both the Aegean Sea and Rhodes Gyre, the most prominent correlations were found between the North Atlantic Oscillation and phosphate, with a highly consistent behavior in the 2 areas associated with common physical forcing and exchange of properties among them.

The present work aims at better understanding regional climate–aerosol interactions by studying the relationships between aerosols and synoptic atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Mediterranean region. Two 40-year simulations (1979–2018) have been carried out with version 6.3 of the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (National Centre for Meteorological Research) – Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational (CNRM-ALADIN) regional climate model, one using interactive aerosols and the other one without any aerosol. The simulation with aerosols has been evaluated in terms of different climate and aerosol parameters. This evaluation shows a good agreement between the model and observations, significant improvements compared to the previous model version and consequently the relevance of using this model for the study of climate–aerosol interactions over this region. A first attempt to explain the climate variability of aerosols is based on the use of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The latter explains a significant part of the interannual variability, notably in winter for the export of dust aerosols over the Atlantic Ocean and the eastern Mediterranean, and in summer for the positive anomalies of anthropogenic aerosols over western Europe. This index is however not sufficient to fully understand the variations of aerosols in this region, notably at daily scale. The use of “weather regimes”, namely persisting meteorological patterns, stable at synoptic scale for a few days, provides a relevant description of atmospheric circulation, which drives the emission, transport and deposition of aerosols. The four weather regimes usually defined in this area in winter and in summer bring significant information to answer this question. The blocking and NAO+ regimes are largely favourable to strong aerosol effects on shortwave surface radiation and near-surface temperature, either because of higher aerosol loads or because of weaker cloud fraction, which reinforces the direct aerosol effect. Inversely, the NAO− and Atlantic Ridge regimes are unfavourable to aerosol radiative effects, because of weaker aerosol concentrations and increased cloud cover. This study thus puts forward the strong dependence of aerosol loads on the synoptic circulation from interannual to daily scales and, as a consequence, the important modulation of the aerosol effects on shortwave surface radiation and near-surface temperature by atmospheric circulation. The role of cloud cover is essential in this modulation as shown by the use of weather regimes.

Twenty-first century projections for the Mediterranean water properties have been analyzed using the largest ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) available up to now, the Med-CORDEX ensemble. It is comprised by 25 simulations, 10 historical and 15 scenario projections, from which 11 are ocean–atmosphere coupled runs and 4 are ocean forced simulations. Three different emissions scenarios are considered: RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. All the simulations agree in projecting a warming across the entire Mediterranean basin by the end of the century as a result of the decrease of heat losses to the atmosphere through the sea surface and an increase in the net heat input through the Strait of Gibraltar. The warming will affect the whole water column with higher anomalies in the upper layer. The temperature change projected by the end of the century ranges between 0.81 and 3.71 °C in the upper layer (0–150 m), between 0.82 and 2.97 °C in the intermediate layer (150–600 m) and between 0.15 and 0.18 °C in the deep layer (600 m—bottom). The intensity of the warming is strongly dependent on the choice of emission scenario and, in second order, on the choice of Global Circulation Model (GCM) used to force the RCM. On the other hand, the local structures reproduced by each simulation are mainly determined by the regional model and not by the scenario or the global model. The salinity also increases in all the simulation due to the increase of the freshwater deficit (i.e. the excess of evaporation over precipitation and river runoff) and the related increase in the net salt transport at the Gibraltar Strait. However, in the upper layer this process can be damped or enhanced depending upon the characteristics of the inflowing waters from the Atlantic. This, in turn, depends on the evolution of salinity in the Northeast Atlantic projected by the GCM. Thus a clear zonal gradient is found in most simulations with large positive salinity anomalies in the eastern basin and a freshening of the upper layer of the western basin in most simulations. The salinity changes projected for the whole basin range between 0 and 0.34 psu in the upper layer, between 0.08 and 0.37 psu in the intermediate layer and between − 0.05 and 0.33 in the deep layer. These changes in the temperature and salinity modify in turn the characteristics of the main water masses as the new waters become saltier, warmer and less dense along the twenty-first century. There is a model consensus that the intensity of the deep water formation in the Gulf of Lions is expected to decrease in the future. The rate of decrease remains however very uncertain depending on the scenario and model chosen. At the contrary, there is no model consensus concerning the change in the intensity of the deep water formation in the Adriatic Sea and in the Aegean Sea, although most models also point to a reduction., This study was funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades funded CLIFISH Project (CTM2015-66400-C3-2-R).

Compared to standard regional climate models (RCMs), convection-permitting models (CPMs) provide an improved representation of sub-daily precipitation statistics and extremes thanks mainly to the possibility to switch off the deep convection parameterisation, a known source of model error and uncertainties. The more realistic representation of local processes in CPMs leads to a greater confidence in their projections of future changes in short-duration precipitation extremes.The quantification of uncertainties on future changes at this resolution has been barely touched. Using the first-ever ensemble of CPMs run within the UK Climate Projections project, Fosser et al. (2020) found that the climate change signal for extreme summer precipitation may converge in CPMs in contrast to RCMs, thanks to a more realistic representation of the local storm dynamics.Here we use the first multi-model CPMs ensemble over the greater Alpine region, run under the auspices of the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment Flagship Pilot Study on Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean (Coppola et al. 2020). Several statistics are used to determine the uncertainties in the climate change signal trying to disentangle model uncertainties from natural variability. We found that the contribution of model to the total uncertainties is substantially reduced in CPMs compared to the driving models in summer. This is likely linked to the removal of the uncertainties associated with the convective parameterisation and to a more realistic representation of convective and local dynamical processes in the CPMs. Fosser G, Kendon EJ, Stephenson D, Tucker S (2020) Convection‐Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections. Geophys Res Lett 47:0–2. doi: 10.1029/2020GL088151Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Pichelli, E. et al.A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean. Clim Dyn55, 3–34 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8

Delivering reliable regional or local climate change projections for the next decades that are both at fine scale and taking into account all sources of uncertainty is currently an unsolvable problem with dynamical models such as RCMs or CPRCMs. Indeed, it requires building large ensembles to capture the various sources of uncertainty (scenario choice, model choice, natural variability). However these fine scale models are very expensive to run, and the different CORDEX exercises highlight the complexity of completing large SCENARIO-GCM-MEMBER-RCM matrices. In order to tackle this issue we propose a novel hybrid downscaling method called RCM-Emulator. It aims at combining the physical basis of the dynamical downscaling approach (i.e. RCM) with the low computational cost of the empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) using recent machine learning techniques. The idea is to use existing RCM simulations to learn the transfer function from low resolution field to high resolution surface variables such as temperature or precipitation. The emulator developed here is based on a neural network architecture called UNet and is calibrated following a perfect model framework. The training dataset is a EURO-CORDEX simulation performed with the CNRM-ALADIN RCM at 12km, covering historical and scenario simulations. After presenting the concept of RCM-Emulator and the methodology used to learn the downscaling function, we will evaluate its ability to reproduce the high resolution daily precipitation over Europe in perfect conditions and finally apply it to GCM simulation outputs in order to study its transferability. If successful, this novel tool combined with specifically designed RCM simulations will allow to fill up the 4D-matrices over all CORDEX domains.

Since a decade, convection-permitting regional climate models (CPRCM) have emerged showing promising results, especially in improving the simulation of precipitation extremes. In this article, the CPRCM CNRM-AROME developed at the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) since a few years is described and evaluated using a 2.5-km long 19-year hindcast simulation over a large northwestern European domain using different observations through an added-value analysis in which a comparison with its driving 12-km RCM CNRM-ALADIN is performed. The evaluation is challenging due to the lack of high-quality observations at both high temporal and spatial resolutions. Thus, a high spatio-temporal observed gridded precipitation dataset was built from the collection of seven national datasets that helped the identification of added value from CNRM-AROME. The evaluation is based on a series of standard climatic features that include long-term means and mean annual cycles of precipitation and near-surface temperature where CNRM-AROME shows little improvements compared to CNRM-ALADIN. Additional indicators such as the summer diurnal cycle and indices of extreme precipitation show, on the contrary, a more realistic behaviour of the CNRM-AROME model. Moreover, the analysis of snow cover shows a clear added-value in the CNRM-AROME simulation, principally due to the improved description of the orography with the CPRCM high resolution. Additional analyses include the evaluation of incoming surface longwave and shortwave radiation, and cloud cover using satellite estimates. Overall, despite some systematic biases, the evaluation indicates that CNRM-AROME is a suitable CPRCM that is superior in many aspects to the RCM CNRM-ALADIN.

Providing reliable information on climate change at local scale remains a challenge of first importance for impact studies and policymakers. Here, we propose a novel hybrid downscaling method combining the strengths of both empirical statistical downscaling methods and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The aim of this tool is to enlarge the size of high-resolution RCM simulation ensembles at low cost.We build a statistical RCM-emulator by estimating the downscaling function included in the RCM. This framework allows us to learn the relationship between large-scale predictors and a local surface variable of interest over the RCM domain in present and future climate. Furthermore, the emulator relies on a neural network architecture, which grants computational efficiency. The RCM-emulator developed in this study is trained to produce daily maps of the near-surface temperature at the RCM resolution (12km). The emulator demonstrates an excellent ability to reproduce the complex spatial structure and daily variability simulated by the RCM and in particular the way the RCM refines locally the low-resolution climate patterns. Training in future climate appears to be a key feature of our emulator. Moreover, there is a huge computational benefit in running the emulator rather than the RCM, since training the emulator takes about 2 hours on GPU, and the prediction is nearly instantaneous. However, further work is needed to improve the way the RCM-emulator reproduces some of the temperature extremes, the intensity of climate change, and to extend the proposed methodology to different regions, GCMs, RCMs, and variables of interest.

Med-CORDEX is an international initiative that aims at developing fully coupled high resolution Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs) for the Mediterranean basin. After 11 years of work an ensemble of more than 25 multi-model and multi–scenario climatic simulations is now available. In this study, we analyze the impact of the high-resolution representation of the Mediterranean Sea and of the interaction between ocean and atmosphere, explicitly resolved in the Med-CORDEX simulations, in the projected evolution of the most relevant climatic variables for the Mediterranean basin and the adjacent regions during the 21st century. The final goal is to quantify up to what extent including the explicit and high-resolution representation of the ocean-atmosphere coupling is relevant for regional climate projections. The preliminary results show that, in general, higher resolution coupled simulations project a lower increase in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) than lower resolution runs. This translates in a smaller input of heat and humidity to the atmosphere that, in turn, affect the cloud cover and precipitation over the basin and the adjacent continental areas. These changes are the result of a better representation of the Mediterranean Sea functioning in the Med-CORDEX RCSMs. In particular, they resolve better the mesoscale processes of the basin, which are partly responsible of the heat transport from the surface to deeper layers, and the ocean-atmosphere feedback that regulates the heat exchange.

Large multiscenario multimodel ensembles (MMEs) of regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by global climate models (GCMs) are made available worldwide and aim at providing robust estimates of climate changes and associated uncertainties. Due to many missing combinations of emission scenarios and climate models leading to sparse scenario–GCM–RCM matrices, these large ensembles, however, are very unbalanced, which makes uncertainty analyses impossible with standard approaches. In this paper, the uncertainty assessment is carried out by applying an advanced statistical approach, called QUALYPSO, to a very large ensemble of 87 EURO-CORDEX climate projections, the largest MME based on regional climate models ever produced in Europe. This analysis provides a detailed description of this MME, including (i) balanced estimates of mean changes for near-surface temperature and precipitation in Europe, (ii) the total uncertainty of projections and its partition as a function of time, and (iii) the list of the most important contributors to the model uncertainty. For changes in total precipitation and mean temperature in winter (DJF) and summer (JJA), the uncertainty due to RCMs can be as large as the uncertainty due to GCMs at the end of the century (2071–2099). Both uncertainty sources are mainly due to a small number of individual models clearly identified. Due to the highly unbalanced character of the MME, mean estimated changes can drastically differ from standard average estimates based on the raw ensemble of opportunity. For the RCP4.5 emission scenario in central–eastern Europe for instance, the difference between balanced and direct estimates is up to 0.8 ∘C for summer temperature changes and up to 20 % for summer precipitation changes at the end of the century.

Here, we analyze future projections of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean region at the end of the twenty-first century based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs) from the Med-CORDEX initiative under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Despite some noticeable biases, all the RCSMs capture spatial patterns and cyclone activity key characteristics in the region and thus all of them can be considered as plausible representations of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones. In general, the RCSMs show at the end of the twenty-first century a decrease in the number and an overall weakening of cyclones moving across the Mediterranean. Five out of seven RCSMs simulate also a decrease of the mean size of the systems. Moreover, in agreement with what already observed in CMIP5 projections for the area, the models suggest an increase in the Central part of the Mediterranean region and a decrease in the South-eastern part of the region in the cyclone-related wind speed and precipitation rate. These rather two opposite tendencies observed in the precipitation should compensate and amplify, respectively, the effect of the overall reduction of the frequency of cyclones on the water budget over the Central and South-eastern part of the region. A pronounced inter-model spread among the RCSMs emerges for the projected changes in the cyclone adjusted deepening rate, seasonal cycle occurrence and associated precipitation and wind patterns over some areas of the basin such as Ionian Sea and Iberian Peninsula. The differences observed appear to be determined by the driving Global Circulation Model (GCM) and influenced by the RCSM physics and internal variability. These results point to the importance of (1) better characterizing the range of plausible futures by relying on ensembles of models that explore well the existing diversity of GCMs and RCSMs as well as the climate natural variability and (2) better understanding the driving mechanisms of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones properties.

This communication will present the new high resolution climate dataset over France named DRIAS-2020, available on the French partnership national climate service DRIAS (Meteo-France, IPSL and CERFACS) and the associated report published on January 2021.As for the previous publication in 2014, the climate projections are based on the Euro-Cordex ensemble, whose contents have been greatly enriched over the past six years. Different selection criteria were defined to build a robust and synthetic set (8 to 12 simulations for each of the three scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) that best represents the uncertainties of climate change in France. The selected climate simulations were corrected by the new Adamont method (Verfaillie et al, 2017) applied to the SAFRAN reanalysis at 8km resolution over France. This method provides the DRIAS portal (www.drias-climat.fr) with a new coherent dataset of several meteorological variables (temperature, precipitation, snow, humidity, wind, radiation). The availability of this dataset was joined with a scientific report “DRIAS-2020” analysing the expected climate change in France during the 21st century.The mean temperature is increasing for all three scenarios, with a continuous rise until the end of the century (period 2071-2100) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with median values reaching +2.1°C and +3.9°C respectively. This warming, more marked in the summer, presents a geographical variability with a stronger increase in the east of the country. This change in temperature is also reflected in the extremes, with a dramatic rise in the number of heat wave days in all three scenarios. The evolution of annual precipitation, stable or slightly increasing depending on the horizons and scenarios, is accompanied by model uncertainty, which can reverse the sign of the trend. This evolution is subject to seasonal (increase in winter, decrease in summer) and geographical variations (increase in the northern half and decrease in some regions of the South). The evolution of extreme precipitation and summer droughts also presents strong uncertainties.These data are intended to be widely used in France for all impact or adaptation studies such as already done for snow cover (ClimSnow) or in progress for water resource (National Explore2 project).

International audience; Floods have significant socio-economic impacts, particularly in the Mediterranean regions, and there is strong questioning about a possible increase in their intensity due to climate change. In the Mediterranean, it is now established that extreme precipitation could increase in future climate scenarios, following the trend already started in the observed data. Nevertheless, the trends observed in the South of France indicate a decrease in the frequency of floods in the majority of the basins, despite the increase in intense precipitation causing these episodes, due to the decrease in soil moisture which can strongly modulate the hydrological response of the basins. Conversely, a trend towards an increase in the intensity of the most extreme floods is observed in some basins. It is indeed imperative to differentiate the behavior of different types of basins, urban, natural or agricultural, at different scales, in the face of changes in the regime of extreme rainfall. Although a lot of work has been done to estimate future climatic conditions, we are not well aware of the possible modifications of hydrological variables and surface conditions, with complex interactions between precipitation and infiltration processes on hillslopes, which can strongly modulate the magnitude of floods. It is therefore necessary to better understand and quantify the hydrological response in a context of climatic and anthropogenic changes.

The Mediterranean Sea has been identified as a hotspot for climate change. Furthermore, its very diverse trophic regimes, in such a little area, make it an extremely interesting region from a biogeochemical perspective. Numerous studies aim at better understanding and representing the Mediterrenean dynamics and biogeochemistry through modeling. This is a crucial step in order to predict the future anthropogenic impacts on the Mediterranean Sea and their possible effects on its biogeochemistry, and all what depends on it. The number of models that simulate the Mediterranean biogeochemistry, and the data available to compare with are now sufficient to draw an overall picture of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemical models state of the art.In this study, we gathered 10 biogeochemical simulations of the Mediterranean Sea, including 8 regional and 2 high-resolution global configurations. The simulations are compared with surface chlorophyll estimates derived from satellite observations; chlorophyll, nitrate, oxygen, and particulate organic carbon concentrations derived from BGC-Argo floats, and phytoplankton group-specific primary production estimated from ocean color satellite observations. Our first aim is to describe and compare all known Mediterranean biogeochemical models, and to highlight their specificity. This should give an insight into the current achievements, and expose what biogeochemical model products are hence available for further ecological analysis. Furthermore, a specific attention is given to how well each model performs in selected regions of the Mediterranean Sea, in order to understand which specific process is needed to adequately represent the different trophic regimes of the Mediterranean Sea.

The French National Climate Service “Drias, futures of climate” was launched in 2012, as a response of the French scientific community to society’s need for climatic information. It is mainly composed of a website that provides easy access to the best available climate data to characterize climate change over France. Latest advances developed in 2020 include the availability of a new set of regional climate scenarios corrected by a quantile-mapping based method with correction depending on the weather regime. As for the previous set, the climate projections are based on the EURO-CORDEX ensemble, whose contents have been greatly enriched over the past years. Singular effort was done to build a robust and synthetic set that well represents the uncertainties of climate change over France. The different criteria defined to select the simulations will be presented, and the range of the projected climate change will be examined, with respect to larger ensembles.

Compared to standard regional climate models (RCMs), convection-permitting models (CPMs) provide an improved representation of sub-daily precipitation statistics and extremes thanks mainly to the possibility to switch off the deep convection parameterisation, a known source of model error and uncertainties. The more realistic representation of local processes in CPMs leads to a greater confidence in their projections of future changes in short-duration precipitation extremes. Recent literature on CPMs seems to agree on a future increase of extreme precipitation, above Clausius‐Clapeyron scaling in some cases, which is likely to have severe socio-economic impacts.The quantification of uncertainties on future changes at this resolution has been barely touched. Using the first‐ever ensemble of CPMs run within the UK Climate Projections project, Fosser et al. (2020) found that the climate change signal for extreme summer precipitation may converge in CPMs in contrast to RCMs, thanks to a more realistic representation of the local storm dynamics.Here we use the first multi-model CPMs ensemble over the greater Alpine region, run under the auspices of the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment Flagship Pilot Study on Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean (Coppola et al. 2020). In our analysis we compared the uncertainties in the CPMs ensemble to the driving models following a similar method to Fosser et al. (2020). In this presentation we will show if multi-model CPMs can really provide more certain extreme rainfall projections then their parent coarser resolution models. Fosser G, Kendon EJ, Stephenson D, Tucker S (2020) Convection‐Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections. Geophys Res Lett 47:0–2. doi: 10.1029/2020GL088151Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Pichelli, E. et al. A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean. Clim Dyn 55, 3–34 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8

In the former Cordex program, regional climate models were run over Africa and only covered the western part of the South Indian Ocean at a coarse 50-km resolution while a 12-km resolution was used for Europe. A 50-km resolution is insufficient for island territories as small and steep as those in the Indian Ocean. Yet this area is especially vulnerable to natural catastrophes related to the effects of climate change: it is the third region in the world most affected by extreme climatic events. The need for climate services over that populated area has now become a critical issue. Both dynamical and statistical downscaling from a few ongoing CMIP6 simulations were therefore used to obtain regional climate information on a large area of the southwest Indian Ocean that includes most of the inhabited countries from the coasts of Mozambique (33°E) to 74°E as well as the main area of tropical cyclone genesis [2-28°S]. The limited area model ALADIN was implemented in its climate version at 12-km resolution and the first runs were coupled by outputs from one of the CMIP6 Earth Simulation Coupled Models named CNRM-ESM2-1.We will present the numerical and statistical tools used for this regional climate study as well as the first projections obtained for ssp126 (RCP2.6), ssp245 (RCP4,5) and ssp585 (RCP8.5) scenarios over the 2015-2100 period. Results will be illustrated for the southwest Indian ocean basin as well as for the main islands of the IOC member countries: Madagascar, Reunion, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Comoros where observations over the 1981-2010 period were used for model bias correction using the quantile-quantile matching method. For climate uncertainty representativeness, the 2015-2100 evolution of both ALADIN and CNRM-ESM2-1 temperature and precipitation averages over our region will be compared to that of the other available CMIP6 simulations.This work is part of the BRIO (Building Resilience in the Indian Ocean) project which aims at supporting the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC) member countries in the implementation of their adaptation policies with respect to climate change (regarding water resources, health and other issues). This project will provide a set of high quality climate-related data on a free-access online regional portal as well as climate services. It is funded by the Agence Française de Développement (AFD), through the Adapt’Action Facility, in cooperation with the IOC.

The Earth’s climate is regulated by the ocean, which absorbs, transports and releases heat through continuous exchanges with the atmosphere. In regional climate modelling, an increasing consensus has emerged on the added value of ocean-atmosphere coupled systems to allow for these exchanges, through interactive and realistic air-sea interactions. This coupling is controlled by the Sea Surface Temperature (SST), itself regulated by the capacity for the ocean component to store heat at depth. We address here the question of heat storage and trend in the different depths of the Mediterranean Sea in a CMIP6 historical and SSP5-8.5 scenario with the Regional Climate System Model CNRM-RCSM6 driven by CNRM-ESM2-1 simulation. CNRM-RCSM6 is composed by ALADIN-Climate at a 12 km resolution for the atmosphere, with the interactive aerosol scheme TACTIC and the multi-surface model SURFEX v8, CTRIP at a 50 km resolution for the river routing with deep drainage, flood plains, and the lake parametrization FLAKE, NEMOMED12 at a 6 km resolution for the ocean, and OASIS3-MCT for a 1hr-coupling of the four models. The simulation begins in 1979 after 79 years of coupled spin-up, and a control simulation also exists. We investigate the timing, location and magnitude of heat storage by the Mediterranean Sea. In particular, we assess the link between SST warming and vertical heat storage, and its possible seasonality. We illustrate the sensitivity of heat storage to salinity trends by comparing the western and eastern Mediterranean behaviours. Finally, we make use of an online heat trend diagnostic tool to characterize the dominant mechanisms of ocean heat storage in the Mediterranean Sea.

The Euro-Mediterranean region is subject to numerous and various aerosol loads, which interact with radiation, clouds and atmospheric dynamics, with ensuing impact on regional climate. However up to now, aerosol variations are hardly taken into account in most regional climate simulations, although anthropogenic emissions have been dramatically reduced in Europe since the 1980s. Moreover, inconsistencies between regional climate models (RCMs) and their driving global model (GCM) have recently been identified in terms of future radiation and temperature evolution, which could be related to the differences in aerosol forcing. The present study aims at assessing the role of aerosols in the future evolution of the Euro-Mediterranean climate, using a specific multi-model protocol carried out in the Flagship Pilot Study "Aerosol" of the CORDEX program. This protocol relies on three simulations for each RCM: a historical run (1971-2000) and two future RCP8.5 simulations (2021-2050), a first one with evolving aerosols, and a second one with the same aerosols as in the historical period. Six modeling groups have taken part in this protocol, providing nine triplets of simulations. The analysis of these simulations will be presented here. First results show that the future evolution of aerosols has a significant impact on the evolution of surface radiation and surface temperature. In addition RCM runs taking into account the evolution of aerosols are simulating climate change signal closer to the one of their driving GCM than those with constant aerosols.

The Strait of Gibraltar is a narrow and shallow channel that controls the thermohaline and biogeochemical balances of the Mediterranean Sea. Exchanges across this strait are known to be significantly modulated by tidal currents that induce an intense vertical mixing. However, the turbulent processes that control the location, timing and magnitude of this vertical mixing are still unclear. Based on twin tidal and non-tidal simulations, we shed light on the tidal mixing at the Strait of Gibraltar, as simulated from a regional configuration of the three-dimensional numerical model MITgcm. The model domain covers the entire Mediterranean basin, the Black Sea and a part of the Atlantic Ocean, using a very high spatial resolution around the Strait of Gibraltar (1/200°). In both simulations we analyse the vertical mixing generated by the model's turbulence closure scheme based on a turbulent kinetic energy budget. As expected, tides strongly intensify the vertical mixing within the Strait of Gibraltar. Tidal currents also induce significant vertical motions that feed recirculation cells between Atlantic and Mediterranean layers. Conversely, the absence of tidal currents causes an overestimation of the velocities along with spurious mixing in the vicinity of the strait. We show that tidal mixing relies on two main ingredients: sustained vertical shear of horizontal velocities and the reduction of stratification, performed by the work of tidal currents against buoyancy forces. We conclude by proposing a revised conceptual view of tidal mixing at the Strait of Gibraltar.

The use of regional climate model‐based projections for providing regional climate information in a research and climate service contexts is currently expanding very fast. This has been possible thanks to a considerable effort in developing comprehensive ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) projections, especially for Europe, in the EURO‐CORDEX community (Jacob et al., 2014; Jacob et al., 2020). Currently, EURO‐CORDEX has developed a set of 55 historical and scenario projections (RCP8.5) using 8 driving global climate models (GCMs) and 11 RCMs. This article presents the ensemble including its design. We target the analysis to better characterize the quality of the regional climate models by providing an evaluation of these RCM simulations over a number of classical climate variables and extreme and impact‐oriented indices for the period 1981‐2010. For the main variables, the model simulations generally agree with observations and reanalyses. However, several systematic biases are found as well, with shared responsibilities among RCMs and GCMs: simulations are overall too cold, too wet and too windy compared to available observations or reanalyses. Some simulations show strong systematic biases on temperature, others on precipitation or dynamical variables but none of the models/simulations can be defined as the best or the worst on all criteria. The article aims at supporting a proper use of these simulations within a climate services context.

International audience; This paper analyzes the ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections for Europe completed within the EURO CORDEX project. Projections are available for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP2.6 (22 members) and RCP8.5 (55 members) at 0.11° resolution from 11 RCMs driven by eight global climate models (GCMs). The RCM ensemble results are compared with the driving CMIP5 global models but also with a subset of available last generation CMIP6 projections. Maximum warming is projected by all ensembles in Northern Europe in winter, along with a maximum precipitation increase there; in summer, maximum warming occurs in the Mediterranean and Southern European regions associated with a maximum precipitation decrease. The CMIP6 ensemble shows the largest signals, both for temperature and precipitation, along with the largest inter model spread. There is a high model consensus across the ensembles on an increase of extreme precipitation and drought frequency in the Mediterranean region. Extreme temperature indices show an increase of heat extremes and a decrease of cold extremes, with CMIP6 showing the highest values and EURO CORDEX the finest spatial details. This data set of unprecedented size and quality will provide the basis for impact assessment and climate service activities for the European region.

This study investigates, through regional climate modelling, the surface mass concentration and AOD (aerosol optical depth) evolution of the various (anthropogenic and natural) aerosols over the Euro-Mediterranean region between the end of the 20th century and the mid-21st century. The direct aerosol radiative forcing (DRF) as well as the future Euro-Mediterranean climate sensitivity to aerosols have also been analysed. Different regional climate simulations were carried out with the CNRM-ALADIN63 regional climate model, driven by the global CNRM-ESM2-1 Earth system model (used in CMIP6) and coupled to the TACTIC (Tropospheric Aerosols for ClimaTe In CNRM) interactive aerosol scheme. These simulations follow several future scenarios called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1-1.9, SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5), which have been chosen to analyse a wide range of possible future scenarios in terms of aerosol or particle precursor emissions. Between the historical and the future period, results show a total AOD decrease between 30 % and 40 % over Europe for the three scenarios, mainly due to the sulfate AOD decrease (between −85 and −93 %), that is partly offset by the nitrate and ammonium particles AOD increase (between +90 and +120 %). According to these three scenarios, nitrate aerosols become the largest contributor to the total AOD during the future period over Europe, with a contribution between 43.5 % and 47.5 %. It is important to note that one of the precursors of nitrate and ammonium aerosols, nitric acid, has been implemented in the model as a constant climatology over time. Concerning natural aerosols, their contribution to the total AOD increases slightly between the two periods. The different evolution of aerosols therefore impacts their DRF, with a significant sulfate DRF decrease between 2.4 and 2.8 W m−2 and a moderate nitrate and ammonium DRF increase between 1.3 and 1.5 W m−2, depending on the three scenarios over Europe. These changes, which are similar under the different scenarios, explain about 65 % of the annual shortwave radiation change but also about 6 % (in annual average) of the warming expected over Europe by the middle of the century. This study shows, with SSP 5-8.5, that the extra warming attributable to the anthropogenic aerosol evolution over Central Europe and the Iberian Peninsula during the summer period is due to “aerosol–radiation” as well as “aerosol–cloud” interaction processes. The extra warming of about 0.2 ∘C over Central Europe is explained by a surface radiation increase of 5.8 W m−2 over this region, due to both a surface aerosol DRF decrease of 4.4 W m−2 associated with a positive effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation interactions (ERFari) of 2.7 W m−2 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and a cloud optical depth (COD) decrease of 1.3. In parallel, the simulated extra warming of 0.2∘C observed over the Iberian Peninsula is due to a COD decrease of 1.3, leading to a positive effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) of 2.6 W m−2 at the TOA but also to an atmospheric dynamics change leading to a cloud cover decrease of about 1.7 % and drier air in the lower layers, which is a signature of the semi-direct forcing. This study thus highlights the necessity of taking into account the evolution of aerosols in future regional climate simulations.

This study investigates, through regional climate modelling, the surface mass concentration and AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) evolution of the various (anthropogenic and natural) aerosols over the Euro-Mediterranean region between the end of the 20th century and the mid-21st century. The direct aerosol radiative forcing (DRF) as well as the future Euro-Mediterranean climate sensitivity to aerosols have been also analysed. Different regional climate simulations were carried out with the CNRM-ALADIN63 regional climate model, driven by the global CNRM-ESM2-1 Earth System Model (used in CMIP6) and coupled to the TACTIC (Tropospheric Aerosols for ClimaTe In CNRM) interactive aerosol scheme. These simulations follow several future scenarios called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1-1.9, SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5), which have been chosen to analyse a wide range of possible future scenarios in terms of aerosol or particles precursors emissions. Between the historical and the future period, results show a total AOD decrease between 30 and 40 % over Europe for the three scenarios mainly due to the sulfate AOD decrease (between −85 and −93 %), that is partly offset by the nitrate and ammonium particles AOD increase (between +90 and +120 %). According to these three scenarios, nitrate aerosols become the largest contributor to the total AOD during the future period over Europe, with a contribution between 43.5 and 47.5 %. Concerning natural aerosols, their contribution to the total AOD increases slightly between the two periods. The different evolution of aerosols therefore impacts their DRF, with a significant sulfate DRF decrease by 2.6 W m−2 and a moderate nitrate and ammonium DRF increase by 1.4 W m−2, on average according to the three scenarios over Europe. These changes, which are similar under the different scenarios, explain about 65 % of the annual shortwave radiation change but also about 6 % (in annual average) of the warming expected over Europe by the middle of the century. This study shows, with the SSP 5-8.5, that the extra-warming attributable to the anthropogenic aerosols evolution over Central Europe and the Iberian Peninsula during the summer period is due to aerosol-radiation as well as aerosol-cloud interactions processes. The extra-warming of about 0.2 °C over Central Europe is explained by a surface radiation increase of 5.8 W m−2 over this region, due to both a surface aerosol DRF decrease of 4.4 W m−2 and cloud optical depth (COD) decrease of 1.3. In parallel, the simulated extra-warming of 0.2 °C observed over the Iberian Peninsula is due, as for it, to a COD decrease of 1.3 but also to an atmospheric dynamics change leading to a cloud cover decrease of about 2 % and a drier air in the lower layers, signature of the semi-direct forcing. This study thus highlights the necessity of taking into account the evolution of aerosols in future regional climate simulations.

MedECC has published the First Mediterranean Assessment Report (MAR1) on the current state and expected risks of climate and environmental change in the Mediterranean Basin. The Chapter 2 "Drivers of change" describes characteristics and evolution of human-induced and natural factors that cause changes in the Mediterranean Basin ecosystems and human systems. In order to cover most major risks for people and biodiversity, four broad domains of change drivers are considered: climate change and variability, pollution, land and sea use changes and non-indigenous species., Preferred citation: Cherif S, Doblas-Miranda E, Lionello P, Borrego C, Giorgi F, Iglesias A, Jebari S, Mahmoudi E, Moriondo M, Pringault O, Rilov G, Somot S, Tsikliras A, Vila M, Zittis G 2020 Drivers of change. In: Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future. First Mediterranean Assessment Report [Cramer W, Guiot J, Marini K (eds.)] Union for the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu, UNEP/MAP, Marseille, France, pp. 59-180, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7100601.

The Mediterranean region has been shown to be particularly exposed to climate change, with observed trends that are more pronounced than the global tendency. In forecast studies based on a RCP 8.5 scenario, there seems to be a consensus that, along with an increase in temperature and salinity over the next century, a reduction in the intensity of deep-water formation and a shallowing of the mixed layer (especially in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea (MS)) are expected. By contrast, only a few studies have investigated the effects of climate change on the biogeochemistry of the MS using a 3D physical/biogeochemical model. In this study, our aim was to explore the impact of the variations in hydrodynamic forcing induced by climate change on the biogeochemistry of the MS over the next century. For this purpose, high-resolution simulations under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario have been run using the regional climate system model CNRM-RCSM4 including the NEMO-MED8 marine component, coupled (off-line) with the biogeochemical model Eco3M-Med. The results of this scenario first highlight that most of the changes in the biogeochemistry of the MS will occur (under the RCP 8.5 scenario) after 2050. They suggest that the MS will become increasingly oligotrophic, and therefore less and less productive (14 % decrease in integrated primary production in the Western Basin and in the Eastern Basin). Significant changes would also occur in the planktonic food web, with a reduction (22 % in the Western Basin and 38 % in the Eastern Basin) of large phytoplankton species abundance in favour of small organisms. Organisms will also be more and more N-limited in the future since NO3 concentrations are expected to decline more than those of PO4 in the surface layer. All these changes would mainly concern the Western Basin, while the Eastern Basin would be less impacted.

In recent studies, the Mediterranean region is once again identified as a region particularily sensitive to climate change, with recorded temperature and sea level rises during the last decades exceeding the mean variations recorded at global scale. Moreover, according to climate scenarios, there seems to be some consensus regarding the impact on climate change on some hydrodynamical features, as for example on stratification which should become stronger and more persistant. However, nothing or very few is known about the expected changes nor in the structure and the functionning of the planktonic food web, neither in the main biogeochemical cycles. This study is intended to progress on this issue, using a coupled (one way) physical-biogeochemical model: CNRM-RCSM4/NEMO-MED12/Eco3M-Med. A 110-year simulation over the period 1990-2100 has been run and from 2006, the simulation is forced by a RCP 8.5 regional scenario of the Med Sea (a control simulation has also been run simultaneously). After having verified the model's ability to describe the main characteristics of the marine planktonic food web and biogeochemistry through several comparisons with available data during the historical period, the model outputs have been analyzed. Preliminary results indicate a significant decrease in the annual primary production and the export of organic carbon at 200 and 1000 m in both the eastern and the western basins, associated with changes in the structure of the planktonic community.

Over the last decade, an intensification of extreme warm temperature events, termed as marine heatwaves (MHWs), has been reported in the Mediterranean Sea, itself a “Hot Spot” region for climate change. In the summer of 2003, a major MHW occurred in the Mediterranean with abnormal surface temperature anomalies of 2-3 Cº persisting for over a month. In 2015, an undocumented but more intense summer MHW affected almost the entire Mediterranean Sea with regional temperatures anomalies reaching 4-5 Cº. Here, we apply a MHW detection algorithm for long-lasting and large-scale summer events, on the hindcast output of a fully-coupled regional climate model (RCSM). We first examine the spatial variability and temporal evolution of both the 2003 and 2015 events. Then a basin-scale analysis of the mixed layer heat budget during each MHW is performed. The ocean and atmospheric components’ contribution is investigated separately during the onset, peak, and decay phases of both events, in order to disentangle the dominant physical processes behind each event. On the large-scale, our results indicate a key role of the wind forcing and the air-sea heat fluxes, while advection processes become more important at local scales. This study provides a comparison of the underlying mechanisms behind the two most intense MHW detected in the Mediterranean Sea during the last decade, constituting key information for the marine ecosystems of the region.