Search

Abstract The fabrication of fuel cells relies on a rapid laser welding process. However, challenges arise with the occurrence of humping when the welding speed surpasses a critical threshold, which poses difficulties in achieving a smooth surface finish and a consistent weld strength. This study aims to elucidate the humping mechanisms by analyzing the morphology of molten pool and the characteristics of melt flow at varying welding speeds via in situ synchrotron high-speed X-ray imaging and computational fluid dynamics simulations. Our findings indicate that the short keyhole rear wall, the high backward melt velocity, and the prolonged tail of molten pool are the primary factors contributing to the onset of humping. Furthermore, a dimensionless humping index ( $${\pi }_{h}$$ π h ) was introduced, which successfully captured the onset threshold of humping across different literatures. This index not only provides a quantitative description of the humping formation tendency but also serves as a valuable tool for optimizing the laser welding process.

Electron beam melting (EBM), also known as electron beam powder bed fusion (EB-PBF), is a metal additive manufacturing (AM) technology that can make metal parts that are difficult, inefficient, or unachievable through conventional manufacturing routes and other AM technologies. However, a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of electron beam-matter interactions in EBM remains elusive, which is a barrier for the development and adoption of EBM technology. Here, we report the dynamics and mechanisms of pore formation, pore elimination, and crack elimination in EBM. Three mechanisms of pore formation are observed: (1) pore formation from feedstock powders, (2) pore formation from pre-existing defects, and (3) pore captured by solidification front. One pore elimination mechanism is discovered: pore elimination due to metal vapor condensation, which is unique to EBM. One crack elimination mechanism is uncovered: crack elimination through remelting. These results will enhance the understanding of defect formation and evolution mechanisms in EBM and may inspire the invention of effective approaches to mitigate and control defects (porosity and cracks) in EBM.

Gas flow rates in Directed Energy Deposition (DED) Additive Manufacturing (AM) can significantly affect the quality of built parts by altering melt pool geometry. Using a DED process replicator and in situ synchrotron radiography, together with analogous experiments in an industrial DED machine, we investigate the impact of carrier gas and shield gas flow rates on build quality. The results reveal that there is a critical shield gas flow rate above which melt pools are flattened, tracks widen, and thus layer thickness decreases. The reduction in layer thickness is most prominent in conditions with low carrier gas flow rate, as the highly turbulent shield gas flow may divert slow moving powder particles away from the melt pool, decreasing capture efficiency. Very high flow rates increase internal porosity, as fast-moving particles impacting the melt pool surface can entrain chamber gas behind them. High gas flow rates also cool the melt pool, creating shallower melt pools with increased thermal gradients near the solidification front, increasing pore entrapment in the solidified track.

The paper investigates the oil–water emulsification process inside a micro-venturi channel. More specifically, the possible influence of Kelvin-Helmholtz instability on the emulsification process. High-speed visualizations were conducted inside a square venturi constriction with throat dimensions of 450 µm by 450 µm, both under visible light and X-Rays. We show that cavity shedding caused by the instability results in the formation of several cavity vortices. Their rotation causes the deformation of the oil stream into a distinct wave-like shape, combined with fragmentation into larger drops due to cavitation bubble collapse. Later on, the cavity collapse further disperses the larger drops into a finer emulsion. Thus, it turns out that the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability is similarly characteristic for hydrodynamic cavitation emulsification inside a microchannel as is the Rayleigh-Taylor instability for acoustically driven emulsion formation.

Titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V) is widely used in additive manufacturing (AM) industry. However, as laser powder-bed fusion (PBF-L) additive manufacturing (AM) advances towards reliable production of titanium parts, a thorough understanding of the process-structure-properties (PSP) relationships remain to be fully understood. A study of the laser melting was paired with high-speed X-ray synchrotron imaging at the 32-ID beamline of the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratory. Simultaneous melting and imaging was carried out on a Ti-6Al-4V powder layer held in a custom device designed to mimic single-track scans of the PBF-L process at different laser power levels, powder size distributions, and cover gas environments (Ar and He) on top of AM Ti-6Al-4V base metal. It was found that the thickness of the powder layer significantly affected the melt behavior: too much powder led to the formation of molten droplets that wetted the surface of the titanium, yet did not contribute to a uniform melting profile. Residual gas pores in the atomized powder were also observed to contribute to the pores observed in the melt pool, with the porosity of the powder (defined as volume of pores divided by total material volume) constant with powder size distribution (i.e., larger particles contained more entrapped gas, which increased final part porosity). When varying Ar or He through the same gas flow meter settings and nozzle, the difference in flow rates likely contributed more to the resultant porosity of the solidified material than did the thermal conductivity of the gasses, with He being the greater contributor to porosity. The microstructure of the heat affected zone contained α′, α, and an increased β phase fraction relative to the base material. The crystallographic texture of the melt pool region adopted that of the base metal.

Material properties of metals and metal alloys at high temperatures are often unknown, but necessary to understand physical mechanisms for prediction and improvement of high temperature processes, such as laser beam technologies. Surface tension is an elementary property that was measured in this study above the boiling temperature of steel using a laser-induced vapor channel in a steel substrate and the extraction of the vapor channel diameter from in-situ X-ray observations. The measurement principle is based on the pressure balance inside the keyhole, where the recoil pressure from keyhole wall vaporization works against the surface tension pressure from the surrounding melt pool. An increase in surface tension at increasing temperatures above the boiling point was measured against theoretical expectations. In order to create the keyhole shapes measured, the surface tension must increase to counterbalance the increasing recoil pressure.

A lot of effort has been dedicated in recent years towards understanding the basics of cavitation induced emulsification, mainly in the form of single cavitation bubbles. Regarding bulk acoustic emulsification, a lot less research has been done. In our here presented work we utilize advanced high-speed observation techniques in visible light and X-Rays to build upon that knowledge and advance the understanding of bulk emulsion preparation. During research we discovered that emulsion formation has an acute impact on the behavior of the interface and more importantly on its position relative to the horn, hence their interdependence must be carefully studied. We did this by observing bulk emulsification with 2 cameras simultaneously and corroborating these measurements with observation under X-Rays. Since the ultrasonic horns location also influences interface behavior, we shifted its initial position to different locations nearer to and further away from the oil–water interface in both phases. We found that a few millimeters distance between the horn and interface is not enough for fine emulsion formation, but that they must be completely adjacent to each other, with the horn being located inside the oil–water interface. We also observed some previously undiscovered phenomena, such as the splitting of the interface to preserve continuous emulsion formation, climbing of the interface up the horn and circular interface protrusions towards the horn forming vertical emulsion streams. Interestingly, no visible W/O emulsion was ever formed during our experiments, only O/W regardless of initial horn position.

Beam oscillation is an attractive method to achieve melt pool and microstructure control in laser powder bed additive manufacturing. Here, in-situ X-ray imaging and high-fidelity modeling reveal the unique keyhole dynamics in a kHz laser oscillation mode.

Abstract In this work, the application of a time resolved multi-contrast beam tracking technique to the investigation of the melting and solidification process in metals is presented. The use of such a technique allows retrieval of three contrast channels, transmission, refraction and dark-field, with millisecond time resolution. We investigated different melting conditions to characterize, at a proof-of-concept level, the features visible in each of the contrast channels. We found that the phase contrast channel provides a superior visibility of the density variations, allowing the liquid metal pool to be clearly distinguished. Refraction and dark-field were found to highlight surface roughness formed during solidification. This work demonstrates that the availability of the additional contrast channels provided by multi-contrast X-ray imaging delivers additional information, also when imaging high atomic number specimens with a significant absorption.

Understanding the keyhole porosity formation is important in laser powder bed fusion. Here the authors reveal the dynamics of keyhole fluctuation, and collapse that induces bubble formation with three main stages of evolution; growth, shrinkage, and being captured by the solidification front.

Keyhole pore formation is one of the most detrimental subsurface defects in the laser metal additive manufacturing process. However, effective ways to mitigate keyhole pore formation beyond tuning laser processing conditions during keyhole mode laser melting are still lacking. Here we report a novel approach to mitigate keyhole pore formation during laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process by using stable nanoparticles. The critical keyhole depth for keyhole pore generation (i.e., the largest keyhole depth without keyhole pore formation) during LPBF of Al6061 increases from 246 µm to 454 µm (85% increase) after adding TiC nanoparticles. In-depth x-ray imaging studies and thermo-fluid dynamics simulation enable us to identify that two mechanisms work together to mitigate keyhole pore generation: (1) adding nanoparticles prevents the keyhole from collapsing by increasing the liquid viscosity to impede the protrusion development; (2) adding nanoparticles slows down the keyhole pore movement by increasing the liquid viscosity, resulting in the recapturing of the pore by the keyhole. We further demonstrate that adding TiC nanoparticles can also eliminate the keyhole fluctuation induced keyhole pore during LPBF of Al6061. Our research provides a potential way to mitigate keyhole pore formation for defect lean metal additive manufacturing.

Electron beam melting (EBM) additive manufacturing (AM) has grown rapidly in recent years due to its capability to manufacture high-performance metals and conductive ceramics. Whereas in-situ synchrotron X-ray imaging and diffraction have proven invaluable tools in understanding of laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF), the characterization of the EBM process lagged what has been accomplished in laser-based AM. This is principally due to the lack of an open architecture system. Here we report an open architecture EBM system for in-situ synchrotron X-ray monitoring with complementary high-speed visible light imaging and high-speed infrared (IR) imaging. We demonstrate that the developed system enables the characterization of sub-surface transient phenomena. The open architecture system reported here provides a powerful tool for studying the dynamics and mechanisms of EBM AM process. The promising results reported here may ignite more future research activities on using in-situ synchrotron x-ray techniques to study EBM AM processes.

Abstract Background A verbal autopsy (VA) is an interview conducted with the caregivers of someone who has recently died to describe the circumstances of the death. In recent years, several algorithmic methods have been developed to classify cause of death using VA data. The performance of one method—InSilicoVA—was evaluated in a study by Flaxman et al., published in BMC Medicine in 2018. The results of that study are different from those previously published by our group. Methods Based on the description of methods in the Flaxman et al. study, we attempt to replicate the analysis to understand why the published results differ from those of our previous work. Results We failed to reproduce the results published in Flaxman et al. Most of the discrepancies we find likely result from undocumented differences in data pre-processing, and/or values assigned to key parameters governing the behavior of the algorithm. Conclusion This finding highlights the importance of making replication code available along with published results. All code necessary to replicate the work described here is freely available on GitHub.

Blended Elemental powders are an emerging alternative to pre-alloyed powders in metal additive manufacturing due to the wider range of alloys producible with them and the cost savings from not developing novel feedstock. In this study, in situ alloying and concurrent microstructure evolution during SLM are investigated by performing SLM on a BE Ti-185 powder while tracking the surface temperatures via Infra-red imaging and phase transforma- tion via synchrotron X-ray Diffraction. We then performed post-mortem electron microscopy (Backscatter Electron imaging, Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy and Electron Backscatter Diffraction) to further gain insight into microstructure development. We show that although exothermic mixing aids the melting process, laser melting results only in a mixture of alloyed and unmixed regions. Full alloying and thus a consistent microstructure is only achieved through further thermal cycling in the heat-affected zone.

Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) have been developed in several low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Africa and Asia. This paper reviews their history, state of the art and future potential and highlights substantial areas of contribution by the late Professor Peter Byass. Historically, HDSS appeared in the second half of the twentieth century, responding to a dearth of accurate population data in poorly resourced settings to contextualise the study of interventions to improve health and well-being. The progress of the development of this network is described starting with Pholela, and progressing through Gwembe, Balabgarh, Niakhar, Matlab, Navrongo, Agincourt, Farafenni, and Butajira, and the emergence of the INDEPTH Network in the early 1990’s The paper describes the HDSS methodology, data, strengths, and limitations. The strengths are particularly their temporal coverage, detail, dense linkage, and the fact that they exist in chronically under-documented populations in LMICs where HDSS sites operate. The main limitations are generalisability to a national population and a potential Hawthorne effect, whereby the project itself may have changed characteristics of the population. The future will include advances in HDSS data harmonisation, accessibility, and protection. Key applications of the data are to validate and assess bias in other datasets. A strong collaboration between a national HDSS network and the national statistics office is modelled in South Africa and Sierra Leone, and it is possible that other low- to middle-income countries will see the benefit and take this approach.

Over the past 70 years, significant advances have been made in determining the causes of death in populations not served by official medical certification of cause at the time of death using a technique known as Verbal Autopsy (VA). VA involves an interview of the family or caregivers of the deceased after a suitable bereavement interval about the circumstances, signs and symptoms of the deceased in the period leading to death. The VA interview data are then interpreted by physicians or, more recently, computer algorithms, to assign a probable cause of death. VA was originally developed and applied in field research settings. This paper traces the evolution of VA methods with special emphasis on the World Health Organization’s (WHO)’s efforts to standardize VA instruments and methods for expanded use in routine health information and vital statistics systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). These advances in VA methods are culminating this year with the release of the 2022 WHO Standard Verbal Autopsy (VA) Toolkit. This paper highlights the many contributions the late Professor Peter Byass made to the current VA standards and methods, most notably, the development of InterVA, the most commonly used automated computer algorithm for interpreting data collected in the WHO standard instruments, and the capacity building in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) that he promoted. This paper also provides an overview of the methods used to improve the current WHO VA standards, a catalogue of the changes and improvements in the instruments, and a mapping of current applications of the WHO VA standard approach in LMICs. It also provides access to tools and guidance needed for VA implementation in Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems at scale.

Abstract Background Verbal autopsies with physician assignment of cause of death (COD) are commonly used in settings where medical certification of deaths is uncommon. It remains unanswered if automated algorithms can replace physician assignment. Methods We randomized verbal autopsy interviews for deaths in 117 villages in rural India to either physician or automated COD assignment. Twenty-four trained lay (non-medical) surveyors applied the allocated method using a laptop-based electronic system. Two of 25 physicians were allocated randomly to independently code the deaths in the physician assignment arm. Six algorithms (Naïve Bayes Classifier (NBC), King-Lu, InSilicoVA, InSilicoVA-NT, InterVA-4, and SmartVA) coded each death in the automated arm. The primary outcome was concordance with the COD distribution in the standard physician-assigned arm. Four thousand six hundred fifty-one (4651) deaths were allocated to physician (standard), and 4723 to automated arms. Results The two arms were nearly identical in demographics and key symptom patterns. The average concordances of automated algorithms with the standard were 62%, 56%, and 59% for adult, child, and neonatal deaths, respectively. Automated algorithms showed inconsistent results, even for causes that are relatively easy to identify such as road traffic injuries. Automated algorithms underestimated the number of cancer and suicide deaths in adults and overestimated other injuries in adults and children. Across all ages, average weighted concordance with the standard was 62% (range 79–45%) with the best to worst ranking automated algorithms being InterVA-4, InSilicoVA-NT, InSilicoVA, SmartVA, NBC, and King-Lu. Individual-level sensitivity for causes of adult deaths in the automated arm was low between the algorithms but high between two independent physicians in the physician arm. Conclusions While desirable, automated algorithms require further development and rigorous evaluation. Lay reporting of deaths paired with physician COD assignment of verbal autopsies, despite some limitations, remains a practicable method to document the patterns of mortality reliably for unattended deaths. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02810366. Submitted on 11 April 2016.

Abstract Background Virtually all low- and middle-income countries are undergoing an epidemiological transition whose progression is more varied than experienced in high-income countries. Observed changes in mortality and disease patterns reveal that the transition in most low- and middle-income countries is characterized by reversals, partial changes and the simultaneous occurrence of different types of diseases of varying magnitude. Localized characterization of this shifting burden, frequently lacking, is essential to guide decentralised health and social systems on the effective targeting of limited resources. Based on a rigorous compilation of mortality data over two decades, this paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African population. Methods We estimate overall and cause-specific hazards of death as functions of sex, age and time period from mortality data from the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System and conduct statistical tests of changes and differentials to assess the progression of the epidemiological transition over the period 1993–2013. Results From the early 1990s until 2007 the population experienced a reversal in its epidemiological transition, driven mostly by increased HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. In recent years, the transition is following a positive trajectory as a result of declining HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. However, in most age groups the cause of death distribution is yet to reach the levels it occupied in the early 1990s. The transition is also characterized by persistent gender differences with more rapid positive progression in females than males. Conclusions This typical rural South African population is experiencing a protracted epidemiological transition. The intersection and interaction of HIV/AIDS and antiretroviral treatment, non-communicable disease risk factors and complex social and behavioral changes will impact on continued progress in reducing preventable mortality and improving health across the life course. Integrated healthcare planning and program delivery is required to improve access and adherence for HIV and non-communicable disease treatment. These findings from a local, rural setting over an extended period contribute to the evidence needed to inform further refinement and advancement of epidemiological transition theory.

Background: Migration and urbanization are central to sustainable development and health, but data on temporal trends in defined populations are scarce. Healthy men and women migrate because opportunities for employment and betterment are not equally distributed geographically. The disruption can result in unhealthy exposures and environments and income returns for the origin household. Objectives: The objectives of the paper are to describe the patterns, levels, and trends of temporary migration in rural northeast South Africa; the mortality trends by cause category over the period 2000–2011; and the associations between temporary migration and mortality by broad cause of death categories. Method: Longitudinal, Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System data are used in a continuous, survival time, competing-risk model. Findings: In rural, northeast South Africa, temporary migration, which involves migrants relocating mainly for work purposes and remaining linked to the rural household, is more important than age and sex in explaining variations in mortality, whatever the cause. In this setting, the changing relationship between temporary migration and communicable disease mortality is primarily affected by reduced exposure of the migrant to unhealthy conditions. The study suggests that the changing relationship between temporary migration and non-communicable disease mortality is mainly affected by increased livelihood benefits of longer duration migration. Conclusion: Since temporary migration is not associated with communicable diseases only, public health policies should account for population mobility whatever the targeted health risk. There is a need to strengthen the rural health care system, because migrants tend to return to the rural households when they need health care.

Crude rates such as the crude death rate are functions of both the age-specific rates and the age composition of a population. However, differences in the age structure between two populations or two time periods can result in specious differences in the corresponding crude rates making direct comparisons between populations or across time inappropriate. Therefore, when comparing crude rates between populations, it is desirable to eliminate or minimize the influence of age composition. This task is accomplished by using a standard age structure yielding an age-standardized rate. This paper proposes an updated International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and Their Health (INDEPTH) standard for use in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) based on newly available data from the health and demographic surveillance system site members of the INDEPTH network located throughout Africa and southern Asia. The updated INDEPTH standard should better reflect the age structure of LMICs and result in more accurate health indicators and demographic rates. We demonstrate use of the new INDEPTH standard along with several existing ‘world’ standards and show how resulting age-standardized crude deaths rates differ when using the various standard age compositions.

Background: Verbal autopsy (VA) is the only available approach for determining the cause of many deaths, where routine certification is not in place. Therefore, it is important to use standards and methods for VA that maximise efficiency, consistency and comparability. The World Health Organization (WHO) has led the development of the 2012 WHO VA instrument as a new standard, intended both as a research tool and for routine registration of deaths. Objective: A new public-domain probabilistic model for interpreting VA data, InterVA-4, is described, which builds on previous versions and is aligned with the 2012 WHO VA instrument. Design: The new model has been designed to use the VA input indicators defined in the 2012 WHO VA instrument and to deliver causes of death compatible with the International Classification of Diseases version 10 (ICD-10) categorised into 62 groups as defined in the 2012 WHO VA instrument. In addition, known shortcomings of previous InterVA models have been addressed in this revision, as well as integrating other work on maternal and perinatal deaths. Results: The InterVA-4 model is presented here to facilitate its widespread use and to enable further field evaluation to take place. Results from a demonstration dataset from Agincourt, South Africa, show continuity of interpretation between InterVA-3 and InterVA-4, as well as differences reflecting specific issues addressed in the design and development of InterVA-4. Conclusions: InterVA-4 is made freely available as a new standard model for interpreting VA data into causes of death. It can be used for determining cause of death both in research settings and for routine registration. Further validation opportunities will be explored. These developments in cause of death registration are likely to substantially increase the global coverage of cause-specific mortality data.

Background: Research training for public health professionals is key to the future of public health and policy in Africa. A growing number of schools of public health are connected to health and socio-demographic surveillance system field sites in developing countries, in Africa and Asia in particular. Linking training programs with these sites provides important opportunities to improve training, build local research capacity, foreground local health priorities, and increase the relevance of research to local health policy. Objective: To increase research training capacity in public health programs by providing targeted training to students and increasing the accessibility of existing data. Design: This report is a case study of an approach to linking public health research and training at the University of the Witwatersrand. We discuss the development of a sample training database from the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance System in South Africa and outline a concordant transnational intensive short course on longitudinal data analysis offered by the University of the Witwatersrand and the University of Colorado-Boulder. This case study highlights ways common barriers to linking research and training can be overcome. Results and Conclusions: This collaborative effort demonstrates that linking training to ongoing data collection can improve student research, accelerate student training, and connect students to an international network of scholars. Importantly, the approach can be adapted to other partnerships between schools of public health and longitudinal research sites.

Background: Population measures of sterility are traditionally constructed for women, despite fertility and sterility being conditions of the couple. Estimates of male sterility provide insight into population-level sterility, and complement estimates based solely on women. Objective: This study seeks to estimate male sterility for the Gwembe Tonga of Zambia using male birth histories collected by the Gwembe Tonga Research Project from 1957 to 1995, while providing context by estimating female sterility for the Gwembe Tonga, as well as female sterility in all of Zambia, from Zambian DHS data (1992, 1997, 2001-02, and 2007). Methods: Sterility is measured using the Larson-Menken subsequently infertile indicator. Estimates are produced using discrete time event history analysis. Results: The odds of sterility were higher for women than men, though women's odds of sterility were only 1.5 times that of men's in the middle reproductive years. The odds of sterility increased steadily with age for both men and women, and across all datasets. However, women's sterility increased much more sharply with age than men's did, and women's odds of sterility were higher than men's at all reproductive ages.

Background: We investigate the sex-age-specific changes in the mortality of a prospectively monitored rural population in South Africa. We quantify changes in the age pattern of mortality efficiently by estimating the eight parameters of the Heligman-Pollard (HP) model of age-specific mortality. In its traditional form this model is difficult to fit and does not account for uncertainty. Objective: (1) To quantify changes in the sex-age pattern of mortality experienced by a population with endemic HIV. 2. To develop and demonstrate a robust Bayesian estimation method for the HP model that accounts for uncertainty. Methods: Bayesian estimation methods are adapted to work with the HP model. Temporal changes in parameter values are related to changes in HIV prevalence. Results: Over the period when the HIV epidemic in South Africa was growing, mortality in the population described by our data increased profoundly with losses of life expectancy of ~15 years for both males and females. The temporal changes in the HP parameters reflect in a parsimonious way the changes in the age pattern of mortality. We develop a robust Bayesian method to estimate the eight parameters of the HP model and thoroughly demonstrate it. Conclusions: Changes in mortality in South Africa over the past fifteen years have been profound. The HP model can be fit well using Bayesian methods, and the results can be useful in developing a parsimonious description of changes in the age pattern of mortality. Comments: The motivating aim of this work is to develop new methods that can be useful in applying the HP eight-parameter model of age-specific mortality. We have done this and chosen an interesting application to demonstrate the new methods.

BACKGROUND Much of our knowledge of the epidemiology and demography of HIV epidemics in Africais derived from models fit to sparse, non-representative data. These often average over ageand other important dimensions, rarely quantify uncertainty, and typically do not imposeconsistency on the epidemiology and the demography of the population. OBJECTIVE This work conducts an empirical investigation of the history of the HIV epidemic inUganda and Tanzania through the late 1990s, focusing on sex-age-specific incidence,uses those results to produce probabilistic forecasts of HIV prevalence ten years later,and compares those to measures of HIV prevalence at the later time to describe the sexagepattern of changes in prevalence over the intervening period. METHODS We adapt an epidemographic model of a population affected by HIV so that its parameterscan be estimated using both the Bayesian melding with IMIS estimation methodand maximum likelihood methods. Using the Bayesian version of the model we produceprobabilistic forecasts of the population with HIV. RESULTS We produce estimates of sex-age-specific HIV incidence in Uganda and Tanzania in thelate 1990s, produce probabilistic forecasts of the HIV epidemics in Uganda and Tanzaniaduring the early 2000s, describe the sex-age pattern of changes in HIV prevalence inUganda during the early 2000s, and compare the performance and results of the Bayesianand maximum likelihood estimation procedures. CONCLUSIONS We demonstrate that: (1) it is possible to model HIV epidemics in Africa taking accountof sex and age, (2) there are important advantages to the Bayesian estimation method,including rigorous quantification of uncertainty and the ability to make probabilistic forecasts,and (3) that there were important age-specific changes in HIV incidence in Ugandaduring the early 2000s.

BACKGROUND Estimating the total fertility rate is challenging for many developing countries because of limited data and varying data quality. A standardized, reproducible approach to produce estimates that include an uncertainty assessment is desired. METHODS We develop a method to estimate and assess uncertainty in the total fertility rate over time, based on multiple imperfect observations from different data sources including surveys and censuses. We take account of measurement error in observations by decomposing it into bias and variance and assess both by linear regression on a variety of data quality covariates. We estimate the total fertility rate using a local smoother, and assess uncertainty using the weighted likelihood bootstrap. RESULTS We apply our method to data from seven countries in West Africa and construct estimates and uncertainty intervals for the total fertility rate. Based on cross-validation exercises, we find that accounting for differences in data quality between observations gives better calibrated confidence intervals and reduces bias. CONCLUSIONS When working with multiple imperfect observations from different data sources to estimate the total fertility rate, or demographic indicators in general, potential biases and differences in error variance have to be taken into account to improve the estimates and their uncertainty assessment.

This article presents an extension of the cohort component model of population projection (CCMPP) first formulated by Heuveline that is capable of modeling a population affected by HIV. We extend this work by developing the Leslie matrix representation of the CCMPP that greatly facilitates implementation of the model for parameter estimation and projecting. The Leslie matrix also contains information about the stable tendencies of the corresponding population, such as the stable age distribution and time to stability. We validate our reformulation of the model by comparing parameter estimates obtained through maximum likelihood and bootstrap methods to those presented by Heuveline.

At this time there are 37 demographic surveillance system sites active in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Central America, and this number is growing continuously. These sites and other longitudinal population and health research projects generate large quantities of complex temporal data in order to describe, explain and investigate the event histories of individuals and the populations they constitute. This article presents possible solutions to some of the key data management challenges associated with those data. The fundamental components of a temporal system are identified and both they and their relationships to each other are given simple, standardized definitions. Further, a metadata framework is proposed to endow this abstract generalization with specific meaning and to bind the definitions of the data to the data themselves. The result is a temporal data model that is generalized, conceptually tractable, and inherently contains a full description of the primary data it organizes. Individual databases utilizing this temporal data model can be customized to suit the needs of their operators without modifying the underlying design of the database or sacrificing the potential to transparently share compatible subsets of their data with other similar databases. A practical working relational database design based on this general temporal data model is presented and demonstrated. This work has arisen out of experience with demographic surveillance in the developing world, and although the challenges and their solutions are more general, the discussion is organized around applications in demographic surveillance. An appendix contains detailed examples and working prototype databases that implement the examples discussed in the text.

Demographic and health surveillance (DS) systems monitor and document individual- and group-level processes in well-defined populations over long periods of time. The resulting data are complex and inherently temporal. Established methods of storing and manipulating temporal data are unable to adequately address the challenges posed by these data. Building on existing standards, a temporal framework and notation are presented that are able to faithfully record all of the time-related information (or partial lack thereof) produced by surveillance systems. The Unified Timestamp isolates all of the inherent complexity of temporal data into a single data type and provides the foundation on which a Unified Timestamp class can be built. The Unified Timestamp accommodates both point- and interval-based time measures with arbitrary precision, including temporal sets. Arbitrary granularities and calendars are supported, and the Unified Timestamp is hierarchically organized, allowing it to represent an unlimited array of temporal entities.