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Commercial fisheries along the US West Coast are important components of local and regional economies. They use various fishing gear, target a high diversity of species, and are highly spatially heterogeneous, making it challenging to generate a synoptic picture of fisheries activity in the region. Still, understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of US West Coast fisheries is critical to meet the US legal mandate to manage fisheries sustainably and to better coordinate activities among a growing number of users of ocean space, including offshore renewable energy, aquaculture, shipping, and interactions with habitats and key non-fishery species such as seabirds and marine mammals. We analyzed vessel tracking data from Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) from 2010 to 2017 to generate high-resolution spatio-temporal estimates of contemporary fishing effort across a wide range of commercial fisheries along the entire US West Coast. We identified over 247,000 fishing trips across the entire VMS data, covering over 25 different fisheries. We validated the spatial accuracy of our analyses using independent estimates of spatial groundfish fisheries effort generated through the NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service Observer Program. Additionally, for commercial groundfish fisheries operating in federal waters in California, we combined the VMS data with landings and ex-vessel value data from California commercial fisheries landings receipts to generate highly resolved estimates of landings and ex-vessel value, matching over 38,000 fish tickets with VMS data that included 87% of the landings and 76% of the ex-vessel value for groundfish. We highlight fisheries-specific and spatially-resolved patterns of effort, landings, and ex-vessel value, a bimodal distribution of fishing effort with respect to depth, and variable and generally declining effort over eight years. The information generated by our study can help inform future sustainable spatial fisheries management and other activities in the marine environment including offshore renewable energy planning., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.)

Conservation planning traditionally relies upon static reserves; however, there is increasing emphasis on dynamic management (DM) strategies that are flexible in space and time. Due to its novelty, DM lacks best practices to guide design and implementation. We assessed the effect of planning unit size in a DM tool designed to reduce entanglement of protected whales in vertical ropes of surface buoys attached to crab traps in the lucrative U.S. Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) fishery. We conducted a retrospective analysis from 2009 to 2019 with modeled distributions of blue (Balaenoptera musculus) and humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae) whales and observed fisheries effort and revenue to evaluate the effect of 7 planning unit sizes on DM tool performance. We measured performance as avoided whale entanglement risk and protected fisheries revenue. Small planning units avoided up to $47 million of revenue loss and reduced entanglement risk by up to 25% compared to the large planning units currently in use by avoiding the incidental closure of areas with low biodiversity value and high fisheries revenue. However, large planning units were less affected by an unprecedented marine heat wave in 2014-2016 and by delays in information on the distributions of whales and the fishery. Our findings suggest that the choice of planning unit size will require decision-makers to navigate multiple socioecological considerations-rather than a one-size-fits-all approach-to separate wildlife from threats under a changing climate., (© 2024 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

Understanding and characterizing the spatiotemporal dynamics of fishing fleets is crucial for ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM). EBFM must not only account for the sustainability of target species catches, but also for the collateral impacts of fishing operations on habitats and non-target species. Increased rates of large whale entanglements in commercial Dungeness crab fishing gear have made reducing whale-fishery interactions a current and pressing challenge on the U.S. West Coast. While several habitat models exist for different large whale species along the West Coast, less is known about the crab fishery and the degree to which different factors influence the intensity and distribution of aggregate fishing effort. Here, we modeled the spatiotemporal patterns of Dungeness crab fishing effort in Oregon and Washington as a function of environmental, economic, temporal, social, and management related predictor variables using generalized linear mixed effects models. We then assessed the predictive performance of such models and discussed their usefulness in informing fishery management. Our models revealed low between-year variability and consistent spatial and temporal patterns in commercial Dungeness crab fishing effort. However, fishing effort was also responsive to multiple environmental, economic and management cues, which influenced the baseline effort distribution pattern. The best predictive model, chosen through out-of-sample cross-validation, showed moderate predictive performance and relied upon environmental, economic, and social covariates. Our results help fill the current knowledge gap around Dungeness crab fleet dynamics, and support growing calls to integrate fisheries behavioral data into fisheries management and marine spatial planning., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Climate change drives species distribution shifts, affecting the availability of resources people rely upon for food and livelihoods. These impacts are complex, manifest at local scales, and have diverse effects across multiple species. However, for wild capture fisheries, current understanding is dominated by predictions for individual species at coarse spatial scales. We show that species-specific responses to localized environmental changes will alter the collection of co-occurring species within established fishing footprints along the U.S. West Coast. We demonstrate that availability of the most economically valuable, primary target species is highly likely to decline coastwide in response to warming and reduced oxygen concentrations, while availability of the most abundant, secondary target species will potentially increase. A spatial reshuffling of primary and secondary target species suggests regionally heterogeneous opportunities for fishers to adapt by changing where or what they fish. Developing foresight into the collective responses of species at local scales will enable more effective and tangible adaptation pathways for fishing communities.

Restoration of degraded coastal and estuarine habitats owing to human activities is a major global concern. In Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., removal of hard armor from beaches and intertidal zones has become a priority for state and local agencies. However, the effectiveness of these shoreline restoration programs for subtidal habitats and fish is unknown. We surveyed six restoration sites in Puget Sound over 2 years to evaluate associations between shoreline restoration and subtidal fish abundance. We measured the abundance of juvenile salmonids and forage fishes along armored, restored, and reference shorelines. Bayesian generalized linear models showed limited support for associations between shoreline restoration and these fishes in the 3-7 years since armor removal. Pacific herring were more abundant at reference shorelines; the shoreline effect for surf smelt varied by survey site. Shoreline restoration was not an important predictor of salmonid abundance; the best models for Chinook and chum salmon included predictors for survey site and eelgrass, respectively. The retention of survey site in several species' top models reveals the influence of the broader landscape context. We also found seasonal variation in abundance for chum salmon and surf smelt. Our results suggest that juvenile forage fish and salmonids in estuaries likely have unique responses to shoreline features, and that the positive effects of armor removal either do not extend into subtidal areas or are not detectable at local scales. To be most effective, coastal restoration programs should consider broader landscape patterns as well as species-specific habitat needs when prioritizing investments., (© 2022 The Authors. Restoration Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Ecological Restoration.)

Climate change is already impacting coastal communities, and ongoing and future shifts in fisheries species productivity from climate change have implications for the livelihoods and cultures of coastal communities. Harvested marine species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem support U.S. West Coast communities economically, socially, and culturally. Ecological vulnerability assessments exist for individual species in the California Current but ecological and human vulnerability are linked and vulnerability is expected to vary by community. Here, we present automatable, reproducible methods for assessing the vulnerability of U.S. West Coast fishing dependent communities to climate change within a social-ecological vulnerability framework. We first assessed the ecological risk of marine resources, on which fishing communities rely, to 50 years of climate change projections. We then combined this with the adaptive capacity of fishing communities, based on social indicators, to assess the potential ability of communities to cope with future changes. Specific communities (particularly in Washington state) were determined to be at risk to climate change mainly due to economic reliance on at risk marine fisheries species, like salmon, hake, or sea urchins. But, due to higher social adaptive capacity, these communities were often not found to be the most vulnerable overall. Conversely, certain communities that were not the most at risk, ecologically and economically, ranked in the category of highly vulnerable communities due to low adaptive capacity based on social indicators (particularly in Southern California). Certain communities were both ecologically at risk due to catch composition and socially vulnerable (low adaptive capacity) leading to the highest tier of vulnerability. The integration of climatic, ecological, economic, and societal data reveals that factors underlying vulnerability are variable across fishing communities on the U.S West Coast, and suggests the need to develop a variety of well-aligned strategies to adapt to the ecological impacts of climate change., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

A major challenge in sustainability science is identifying targets that maximize ecosystem benefits to humanity while minimizing the risk of crossing critical system thresholds. One critical threshold is the biomass at which populations become so depleted that their population growth rates become negative-depensation. Here, we evaluate how the value of monitoring information increases as a natural resource spends more time near the critical threshold. This benefit emerges because higher monitoring precision promotes higher yield and a greater capacity to recover from overharvest. We show that precautionary buffers that trigger increased monitoring precision as resource levels decline may offer a way to minimize monitoring costs and maximize profits. In a world of finite resources, improving our understanding of the trade-off between precision in estimates of population status and the costs of mismanagement will benefit stakeholders that shoulder the burden of these economic and social costs.

The unusual blue color polymorphism of lingcod (Ophiodon elongatus) is the subject of much speculation but little empirical research; ~20% of lingcod individuals exhibit this striking blue color morph, which is discrete from and found within the same populations as the more common brown morph. In other species, color polymorphisms are intimately linked with host-parasite interactions, which led us to ask whether blue coloration in lingcod might be associated with parasitism, either as cause or effect. To test how color and parasitism are related in this host species, we performed parasitological dissection of 89 lingcod individuals collected across more than 26 degrees of latitude from Alaska, Washington, and California, USA. We found that male lingcod carried 1.89 times more parasites if they were blue than if they were brown, whereas there was no difference in parasite burden between blue and brown female lingcod. Blue individuals of both sexes had lower hepatosomatic index (i.e., relative liver weight) values than did brown individuals, indicating that blueness is associated with poor body condition. The immune systems of male vertebrates are typically less effective than those of females, due to the immunocompromising properties of male sex hormones; this might explain why blueness is associated with elevated parasite burdens in males but not in females. What remains to be determined is whether parasites induce physiological damage that produces blueness or if both blue coloration and parasite burden are driven by some unmeasured variable, such as starvation. Although our study cannot discriminate between these possibilities, our data suggest that the immune system could be involved in the blue color polymorphism-an exciting jumping-off point for future research to definitively identify the cause of lingcod blueness and a hint that immunocompetence and parasitism may play a role in lingcod population dynamics., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Despite the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events, little is known about how their impacts flow through social and ecological systems or whether management actions can dampen deleterious effects. We examined how the record 2014-2016 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave influenced trade-offs in managing conflict between conservation goals and human activities using a case study on large whale entanglements in the U.S. west coast's most lucrative fishery (the Dungeness crab fishery). We showed that this extreme climate event diminished the power of multiple management strategies to resolve trade-offs between entanglement risk and fishery revenue, transforming near win-win to clear win-lose outcomes (for whales and fishers, respectively). While some actions were more cost-effective than others, there was no silver-bullet strategy to reduce the severity of these trade-offs. Our study highlights how extreme climate events can exacerbate human-wildlife conflict, and emphasizes the need for innovative management and policy interventions that provide ecologically and socially sustainable solutions in an era of rapid environmental change.

Environmental forces can create spatially synchronous dynamics among nearby populations. However, increased climate variability, driven by anthropogenic climate change, will likely enhance synchrony among spatially disparate populations. Population synchrony may lead to greater fluctuations in abundance, but the consequences of population synchrony across multiple scales of biological organization, including impacts to putative competitors, dependent predators or human communities, are rarely considered in this context. Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha stocks distribute across the Northeast Pacific, creating spatially variable portfolios that support large ocean fisheries and marine mammal predators, such as killer whales Orcinus orca. We rely on a multi-population model that simulates Chinook salmon ocean distribution and abundance to understand spatial portfolios, or variability in abundance within and among ocean distribution regions, of Chinook salmon stocks across 17 ocean regions from Southeast Alaska to California. We found the expected positive correlation between the number of stocks in an ocean region and spatial portfolio strength; however, increased demographic synchrony eroded Chinook salmon spatial portfolios in the ocean. Moreover, we observed decreased resource availability within ocean fishery management jurisdictions but not within killer whale summer habitat. We found a strong portfolio effect across both Southern Resident and Northern Resident killer whale habitats that was relatively unaffected by increased demographic synchrony, likely a result of the large spatial area included in these habitats. However, within the areas of smaller fishing management jurisdictions we found a weakening of Chinook salmon portfolios and increased but inconsistent likelihood of low abundance years as demographic synchrony increased. We suggest that management and conservation actions that reduce spatial synchrony can enhance short-term ecosystem resilience by promoting the stabilizing effect multiple stocks have on aggregate Chinook salmon populations and overall resource availability., (© 2021 British Ecological Society.)

Outcomes of management efforts to recover or restore populations of harvested species can be highly dependent on environmental and community context. Predator-prey interactions can alter recovery trajectories, and the timing of management actions within multi-trophic level harvest scenarios may influence the dynamics of recovery and lead to management trade-offs. Recent work using a generalist predator-prey model suggests that management promoting synchronized recovery of predators and prey leads to faster and less variable recovery trajectories than sequential recovery (predator or prey first). However, more complex communities may require different management actions to minimize recovery time and variability. Here, we use a tri-trophic level rocky reef community dynamics model with size-structure and fisheries at multiple trophic levels to investigate the importance of three ecological processes to recovery of fished communities: (1) size-structured predation, (2) non-consumptive effects of predators on prey behavior, and (3) varying levels of recruitment. We also test the effects of initiating recovery from community states associated with varying degrees of fishery-induced degradation and develop a simulation in which the basal resource (kelp) is harvested. In this system, a predator-first closure generally leads to the least volatile and quickest recovery, whether from a kelp forest, urchin barren, or intermediate community state. The benefits gained by selecting this strategy are magnified when recovering from the degraded community, the urchin barren, because initial conditions in the degraded state lead to lengthy recovery times. However, the shape of the size-structured predation relationship can strongly affect recovery volatility, where the differences between alternate management strategies are negated with size-independent predation. External recruitment reduces return times by bolstering the predatory lobster population. These results show that in a tightly linked tri-trophic level food web with top-down control, a predator-first fishery closure can be the most effective strategy to reduce volatility and shorten recovery, particularly when the system is starting from the degraded community state. Given the ubiquity of top predator loss across many ecosystems, we highlight the value of incorporating insights from community ecology into ecosystem management., (© 2021 Ecological Society of America. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.)

Climate shocks can reorganize the social-ecological linkages in food-producing communities, leading to a sudden loss of key products in food systems. The extent and persistence of this reorganization are difficult to observe and summarize, but are critical aspects of predicting and rapidly assessing community vulnerability to extreme events. We apply network analysis to evaluate the impact of a climate shock-an unprecedented marine heatwave-on patterns of resource use in California fishing communities, which were severely affected through closures of the Dungeness crab fishery. The climate shock significantly modified flows of users between fishery resources during the closures. These modifications were predicted by pre-shock patterns of resource use and were associated with three strategies used by fishing community member vessels to respond to the closures: temporary exit from the food system, spillover of effort from the Dungeness crab fishery into other fisheries, and spatial shifts in where crab were landed. Regional differences in resource use patterns and vessel-level responses highlighted the Dungeness crab fishery as a seasonal "gilded trap" for northern California fishing communities. We also detected disparities in climate shock response based on vessel size, with larger vessels more likely to display spatial mobility. Our study demonstrates the importance of highly connected and decentralized networks of resource use in reducing the vulnerability of human communities to climate shocks., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Dramatic coral loss has significantly altered many Caribbean reefs, with potentially important consequences for the ecological functions and ecosystem services provided by reef systems. Many studies examine coral loss and its causes-and often presume a universal decline of ecosystem services with coral loss-rather than evaluating the range of possible outcomes for a diversity of ecosystem functions and services at reefs varying in coral cover. We evaluate 10 key ecosystem metrics, relating to a variety of different reef ecosystem functions and services, on 328 Caribbean reefs varying in coral cover. We focus on the range and variability of these metrics rather than on mean responses. In contrast to a prevailing paradigm, we document high variability for a variety of metrics, and for many the range of outcomes is not related to coral cover. We find numerous "bright spots," where herbivorous fish biomass, density of large fishes, fishery value, and/or fish species richness are high, despite low coral cover. Although it remains critical to protect and restore corals, understanding variability in ecosystem metrics among low-coral reefs can facilitate the maintenance of reefs with sustained functions and services as we work to restore degraded systems. This framework can be applied to other ecosystems in the Anthropocene to better understand variance in ecosystem service outcomes and identify where and why bright spots exist., (© 2020 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The Anthropocene has brought substantial change to ocean ecosystems, but whether this age will bring more or less marine disease is unknown. In recent years, the accelerating tempo of epizootic and zoonotic disease events has made it seem as if disease is on the rise. Is this apparent increase in disease due to increased observation and sampling effort, or to an actual rise in the abundance of parasites and pathogens? We examined the literature to track long-term change in the abundance of two parasitic nematode genera with zoonotic potential: Anisakis spp. and Pseudoterranova spp. These anisakid nematodes cause the disease anisakidosis and are transmitted to humans in undercooked and raw marine seafood. A total of 123 papers published between 1967 and 2017 met our criteria for inclusion, from which we extracted 755 host-parasite-location-year combinations. Of these, 69.7% concerned Anisakis spp. and 30.3% focused on Pseudoterranova spp. Meta-regression revealed an increase in Anisakis spp. abundance (average number of worms/fish) over a 53 year period from 1962 to 2015 and no significant change in Pseudoterranova spp. abundance over a 37 year period from 1978 to 2015. Standardizing changes to the period of 1978-2015, so that results are comparable between genera, we detected a significant 283-fold increase in Anisakis spp. abundance and no change in the abundance of Pseudoterranova spp. This increase in Anisakis spp. abundance may have implications for human health, marine mammal health, and fisheries profitability., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Unanticipated declines among exploited species have commonly occurred despite harvests that appeared sustainable prior to collapse. This is particularly true in the oceans where spatial scales of management are often mismatched with spatially complex metapopulations. We explore causes, consequences, and potential solutions for spatial mismatches in harvested metapopulations in three ways. First, we generate novel theory illustrating when and how harvesting metapopulations increases spatial variability and in turn masks local-scale volatility. Second, we illustrate why spatial variability in harvested metapopulations leads to negative consequences using an empirical example of a Pacific herring metapopulation. Finally, we construct a numerical management strategy evaluation model to identify and highlight potential solutions for mismatches in spatial scale and spatial variability. Our results highlight that spatial complexity can promote stability at large scales, however, ignoring spatial complexity produces cryptic and negative consequences for people and animals that interact with resources at small scales. Harvesting metapopulations magnifies spatial variability, which creates discrepancies between regional and local trends while increasing risk of local population collapses. Such effects asymmetrically impact locally constrained fishers and predators, which are more exposed to risks of localized collapses. Importantly, we show that dynamically optimizing harvest can minimize local risk without sacrificing yield. Thus, multiple nested scales of management may be necessary to avoid cryptic collapses in metapopulations and the ensuing ecological, social, and economic consequences., (© 2019 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Growing scientific awareness, strong regulations, and effective management have begun to fulfill the promise of recovery in the ocean. However, many efforts toward ocean recovery remain unsuccessful, in part because marine ecosystems and the human societies that depend upon them are constantly changing. Furthermore, recovery efforts are embedded in marine social-ecological systems where large-scale dynamics can inhibit recovery. We argue that the ways forward are to (i) rethink an inclusive definition of recovery that embraces a diversity of stakeholder perspectives about acceptable recovery goals and ecosystem outcomes; (ii) encourage research that enables anticipation of feasible recovery states and identifies pathways toward resilient ecosystems; and (iii) adopt policies that are sufficiently nimble to keep pace with rapid change and governance that works seamlessly from local to regional scales. Application of these principles can facilitate successful recoveries in a world where environmental conditions and social imperatives are constantly shifting., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

The recovery of predators has the potential to restore ecosystems and fundamentally alter the services they provide. One iconic example of this is keystone predation by sea otters in the Northeast Pacific. Here, we combine spatial time series of sea otter abundance, canopy kelp area, and benthic invertebrate abundance from Washington State, USA, to examine the shifting consequences of sea otter reintroduction for kelp and kelp forest communities. We leverage the spatial variation in sea otter recovery to understand connections between sea otters and the kelp forest community. Sea otter increases created a pronounced decline in sea otter prey-particularly kelp-grazing sea urchins-and led to an expansion of canopy kelps from the late 1980s until roughly 2000. However, while sea otter and kelp population growth rates were positively correlated prior to 2002, this association disappeared over the last two decades. This disconnect occurred despite surveys showing that sea otter prey have continued to decline. Kelp area trends are decoupled from both sea otter and benthic invertebrate abundance at current densities. Variability in kelp abundance has declined in the most recent 15 years, as it has the synchrony in kelp abundance among sites. Together, these findings suggest that initial nearshore community responses to sea otter population expansion follow predictably from trophic cascade theory, but now, other factors may be as or more important in influencing community dynamics. Thus, the utility of sea otter predation in ecosystem restoration must be considered within the context of complex and shifting environmental conditions.

Unprecedented rates of urbanization are changing our understanding of the ways in which children build connections to the natural world, including the importance of educational settings in affecting this relationship. In addition to influencing human-nature connection, greenspace around school grounds has been associated with benefits to students' cognitive function. Questions remain regarding the size of this benefit relative to other factors, and which features of greenspace are responsible for these effects. We conducted a large-scale correlative study subsampling elementary schools ( n = 495) in ecologically, socially and economically diverse California. After controlling for common educational determinants (e.g., socio-economic status, race/ethnicity, student teacher ratio, and gender ratio) we found a significant, positive association between test scores and tree and shrub cover within 750 and 1000 m of urban schools. Tree and shrub cover was not associated with test scores in rural schools or five buffers closer to urban schools (10, 50, 100, 300, and 500 m). Two other greenspace variables (NDVI and agricultural area) were not associated with test performance at any of the analyzed buffer distances for rural or urban schools. Minority representation had the largest effect size on standardized test scores (8.1% difference in scores with 2SD difference in variable), followed by tree and shrub cover around urban schools, which had a large effect size (2.9-3.0% at 750 and 1000 m) with variance from minority representation and socioeconomic status (effect size 2.4%) included. Within our urban sample, average tree-cover schools performed 4.2% (3.9-4.4, and 95% CI) better in terms of standardized test scores than low tree-cover urban schools. Our findings support the conclusion that neighborhood-scale (750-1000 m) urban tree and shrub cover is associated with school performance, and indicate that this element of greenspace may be an important factor to consider when studying the cognitive impacts of the learning environment. These results support the design of experimental tests of tree planting interventions for educational benefits.

Conservation efforts tend to focus on the direct impacts humans have on their surrounding environment; however there are also many ways in which people indirectly affect ecosystems. Recent research on ecological subsidies-the transfer of energy and nutrients from one ecosystem to another-has highlighted the importance of nutrient exchange for maintaining productivity and diversity at a landscape scale, while also pointing toward the fragility of ecotones and vulnerability of subsidies to human activities. We review the recent literature on landscape connectivity and ecosystem subsidies from aquatic systems to terrestrial systems. Based on this review, we propose a conceptual model of how human activities may alter or eliminate the flow of energy and nutrients between ecosystems by influencing the delivery of subsidies along the pathway of transfer. To demonstrate the utility of this conceptual model, we discuss it in the context of case studies of subsidies derived from salmon, marine mammals, sea turtles, sea birds, and shoreline debris. Subsidy restoration may require a different set of actions from simply reversing the pathway of degradation. We suggest that effective restoration and conservation efforts will require a multifaceted approach, targeting many steps along the subsidy transfer pathway, to address these issues.

One of the twenty-first century's greatest environmental challenges is to recover and restore species, habitats and ecosystems. The decision about how to initiate restoration is best-informed by an understanding of the linkages between ecosystem components and, given these linkages, an appreciation of the consequences of choosing to recover one ecosystem component before another. However, it remains difficult to predict how the sequence of species' recoveries within food webs influences the speed and trajectory of restoration, and what that means for human well-being. Here, we develop theory to consider the ecological and social implications of synchronous versus sequential (species-by-species) recovery in the context of exploited food webs. A dynamical systems model demonstrates that synchronous recovery of predators and prey is almost always more efficient than sequential recovery. Compared with sequential recovery, synchronous recovery can be twice as fast and produce transient fluctuations of much lower amplitude. A predator-first strategy is particularly slow because it counterproductively suppresses prey recovery. An analysis of real-world predator-prey recoveries shows that synchronous and sequential recoveries are similarly common, suggesting that current practices are not ideal. We highlight policy tools that can facilitate swift and steady recovery of ecosystem structure, function and associated services.

In the face of increasing threats to biodiversity, the advancement of methods for surveying biological communities is a major priority for ecologists. Recent advances in molecular biological technologies have made it possible to detect and sequence DNA from environmental samples (environmental DNA or eDNA); however, eDNA techniques have not yet seen widespread adoption as a routine method for biological surveillance primarily due to gaps in our understanding of the dynamics of eDNA in space and time. In order to identify the effective spatial scale of this approach in a dynamic marine environment, we collected marine surface water samples from transects ranging from the intertidal zone to four kilometers from shore. Using PCR primers that target a diverse assemblage of metazoans, we amplified a region of mitochondrial 16S rDNA from the samples and sequenced the products on an Illumina platform in order to detect communities and quantify their spatial patterns using a variety of statistical tools. We find evidence for multiple, discrete eDNA communities in this habitat, and show that these communities decrease in similarity as they become further apart. Offshore communities tend to be richer but less even than those inshore, though diversity was not spatially autocorrelated. Taxon-specific relative abundance coincided with our expectations of spatial distribution in taxa lacking a microscopic, pelagic life-history stage, though most of the taxa detected do not meet these criteria. Finally, we use carefully replicated laboratory procedures to show that laboratory treatments were remarkably similar in most cases, while allowing us to detect a faulty replicate, emphasizing the importance of replication to metabarcoding studies. While there is much work to be done before eDNA techniques can be confidently deployed as a standard method for ecological monitoring, this study serves as a first analysis of diversity at the fine spatial scales relevant to marine ecologists and confirms the promise of eDNA in dynamic environments., Competing Interests: The authors declare there are no competing interests.

Despite decades of work in environmental science and ecology, estimating human influences on ecosystems remains challenging. This is partly due to complex chains of causation among ecosystem elements, exacerbated by the difficulty of collecting biological data at sufficient spatial, temporal, and taxonomic scales. Here, we demonstrate the utility of environmental DNA (eDNA) for quantifying associations between human land use and changes in an adjacent ecosystem. We analyze metazoan eDNA sequences from water sampled in nearshore marine eelgrass communities and assess the relationship between these ecological communities and the degree of urbanization in the surrounding watershed. Counter to conventional wisdom, we find strongly increasing richness and decreasing beta diversity with greater urbanization, and similar trends in the diversity of life histories with urbanization. We also find evidence that urbanization influences nearshore communities at local (hundreds of meters) rather than regional (tens of km) scales. Given that different survey methods sample different components of an ecosystem, we then discuss the advantages of eDNA-which we use here to detect hundreds of taxa simultaneously-as a complement to traditional ecological sampling, particularly in the context of broad ecological assessments where exhaustive manual sampling is impractical. Genetic data are a powerful means of uncovering human-ecosystem interactions that might otherwise remain hidden; nevertheless, no sampling method reveals the whole of a biological community., Competing Interests: The authors declare there are no competing interests.

Environmental DNA (eDNA), genetic material recovered from an environmental medium such as soil, water, or feces, reflects the membership of the ecological community present in the sampled environment. As such, eDNA is a potentially rich source of data for basic ecology, conservation, and management, because it offers the prospect of quantitatively reconstructing whole ecological communities from easily obtained samples. However, like all sampling methods, eDNA sequencing is subject to methodological limitations that can generate biased descriptions of ecological communities. Here, we demonstrate parallels between eDNA sampling and traditional sampling techniques, and use these parallels to offer a statistical structure for framing the challenges faced by eDNA and for illuminating the gaps in our current knowledge. Although the current state of knowledge on some of these steps precludes a full estimate of biomass for each taxon in a sampled eDNA community, we provide a map that illustrates potential methods for bridging these gaps. Additionally, we use an original data set to estimate the relative abundances of taxon-specific template DNA prior to PCR, given the abundance of DNA sequences recovered post-PCR-and-sequencing, a critical step in the chain of eDNA inference. While we focus on the use of eDNA samples to determine the relative abundance of taxa within a community, our approach also applies to single-taxon applications (including applications using qPCR), studies of diversity, and studies focused on occurrence. By grounding inferences about eDNA community composition in a rigorous statistical framework, and by making these inferences explicit, we hope to improve the inferential potential for the emerging field of community-level eDNA analysis., (© 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Habitat loss, overexploitation, and numerous other stressors have caused global declines in apex predators. This "trophic downgrading" has generated widespread concern because of the fundamental role that apex predators can play in ecosystem functioning, disease regulation, and biodiversity maintenance. In attempts to combat declines, managers have conducted reintroductions, imposed stricter harvest regulations, and implemented protected areas. We suggest that full recovery of viable apex predator populations is currently the exception rather than the rule. We argue that, in addition to well-known considerations, such as continued exploitation and slow life histories, there are several underappreciated factors that complicate predator recoveries. These factors include three challenges. First, a priori identification of the suite of trophic interactions, such as resource limitation and competition that will influence recovery can be difficult. Second, defining and accomplishing predator recovery in the context of a dynamic ecosystem requires an appreciation of the timing of recovery, which can determine the relative density of apex predators and other predators and therefore affect competitive outcomes. Third, successful recovery programs require designing adaptive sequences of management strategies that embrace key environmental and species interactions as they emerge. Consideration of recent research on food web modules, alternative stable states, and community assembly offer important insights for predator recovery efforts and restoration ecology more generally. Foremost among these is the importance of a social-ecological perspective in facilitating a long-lasting predator restoration while avoiding unintended consequences.

Twenty-first century conservation is centered on negotiating trade-offs between the diverse needs of people and the needs of the other species constituting coupled human-natural ecosystems. Marine forage fishes, such as sardines, anchovies, and herring, are a nexus for such trade-offs because they are both central nodes in marine food webs and targeted by fisheries. An important example is Pacific herring, Clupea pallisii in the Northeast Pacific. Herring populations are subject to two distinct fisheries: one that harvests adults and one that harvests spawned eggs. We develop stochastic, age-structured models to assess the interaction between fisheries, herring populations, and the persistence of predators reliant on herring populations. We show that egg- and adult-fishing have asymmetric effects on herring population dynamics--herring stocks can withstand higher levels of egg harvest before becoming depleted. Second, ecosystem thresholds proposed to ensure the persistence of herring predators do not necessarily pose more stringent constraints on fisheries than conventional, fishery driven harvest guidelines. Our approach provides a general template to evaluate ecosystem trade-offs between stage-specific harvest practices in relation to environmental variability, the risk of fishery closures, and the risk of exceeding ecosystem thresholds intended to ensure conservation goals are met.

Management of marine ecosystems increasingly demands comprehensive and quantitative assessments of ocean health, but lacks a tool to do so. We applied the recently developed Ocean Health Index to assess ocean health in the relatively data-rich US west coast region. The overall region scored 71 out of 100, with sub-regions scoring from 65 (Washington) to 74 (Oregon). Highest scoring goals included tourism and recreation (99) and clean waters (87), while the lowest scoring goals were sense of place (48) and artisanal fishing opportunities (57). Surprisingly, even in this well-studied area data limitations precluded robust assessments of past trends in overall ocean health. Nonetheless, retrospective calculation of current status showed that many goals have declined, by up to 20%. In contrast, near-term future scores were on average 6% greater than current status across all goals and sub-regions. Application of hypothetical but realistic management scenarios illustrate how the Index can be used to predict and understand the tradeoffs among goals and consequences for overall ocean health. We illustrate and discuss how this index can be used to vet underlying assumptions and decisions with local stakeholders and decision-makers so that scores reflect regional knowledge, priorities and values. We also highlight the importance of ongoing and future monitoring that will provide robust data relevant to ocean health assessment.

Sustainable provision of seafood from wild-capture fisheries and mariculture is a fundamental component of healthy marine ecosystems and a major component of the Ocean Health Index. Here we critically review the food provision model of the Ocean Health Index, and explore the implications of knowledge gaps, scale of analysis, choice of reference points, measures of sustainability, and quality of input data. Global patterns for fisheries are positively related to human development and latitude, whereas patterns for mariculture are most closely associated with economic importance of seafood. Sensitivity analyses show that scores are robust to several model assumptions, but highly sensitive to choice of reference points and, for fisheries, extent of time series available to estimate landings. We show how results for sustainable seafood may be interpreted and used, and we evaluate which modifications show the greatest potential for improvements.

The ocean plays a critical role in supporting human well-being, from providing food, livelihoods and recreational opportunities to regulating the global climate. Sustainable management aimed at maintaining the flow of a broad range of benefits from the ocean requires a comprehensive and quantitative method to measure and monitor the health of coupled human–ocean systems. We created an index comprising ten diverse public goals for a healthy coupled human–ocean system and calculated the index for every coastal country. Globally, the overall index score was 60 out of 100 (range 36–86), with developed countries generally performing better than developing countries, but with notable exceptions. Only 5% of countries scored higher than 70, whereas 32% scored lower than 50. The index provides a powerful tool to raise public awareness, direct resource management, improve policy and prioritize scientific research.

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has emerged as a promising approach for maintaining the benefits humans want and need from the ocean, yet concrete approaches for implementing EBM remain scarce. A key challenge lies in the development of indicators that can provide useful information on ecosystem status and trends, and assess progress towards management goals. In this paper, we describe a generalized framework for the methodical and transparent selection of ecosystem indicators. We apply the framework to the second largest estuary in the United States - Puget Sound, Washington - where one of the most advanced EBM processes is currently underway. Rather than introduce a new method, this paper integrates a variety of familiar approaches into one step-by-step approach that will lead to more consistent and reliable reporting on ecosystem condition. Importantly, we demonstrate how a framework linking indicators to policy goals, as well as a clearly defined indicator evaluation and scoring process, can result in a portfolio of useful and complementary indicators based on the needs of different users (e.g., policy makers and scientists). Although the set of indicators described in this paper is specific to marine species and food webs, we provide a general approach that could be applied to any set of management objectives or ecological system.

Background: The rising temperature of the world's oceans has become a major threat to coral reefs globally as the severity and frequency of mass coral bleaching and mortality events increase. In 2005, high ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean resulted in the most severe bleaching event ever recorded in the basin., Methodology/principal Findings: Satellite-based tools provided warnings for coral reef managers and scientists, guiding both the timing and location of researchers' field observations as anomalously warm conditions developed and spread across the greater Caribbean region from June to October 2005. Field surveys of bleaching and mortality exceeded prior efforts in detail and extent, and provided a new standard for documenting the effects of bleaching and for testing nowcast and forecast products. Collaborators from 22 countries undertook the most comprehensive documentation of basin-scale bleaching to date and found that over 80% of corals bleached and over 40% died at many sites. The most severe bleaching coincided with waters nearest a western Atlantic warm pool that was centered off the northern end of the Lesser Antilles., Conclusions/significance: Thermal stress during the 2005 event exceeded any observed from the Caribbean in the prior 20 years, and regionally-averaged temperatures were the warmest in over 150 years. Comparison of satellite data against field surveys demonstrated a significant predictive relationship between accumulated heat stress (measured using NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Degree Heating Weeks) and bleaching intensity. This severe, widespread bleaching and mortality will undoubtedly have long-term consequences for reef ecosystems and suggests a troubled future for tropical marine ecosystems under a warming climate.

Coral and rocky reef fish populations are widely used as model systems for the experimental exploration of density-dependent vital rates, but patterns of density-dependent mortality in these systems are not yet fully understood. In particular, the paradigm for strong, directly density-dependent (DDD) postsettlement mortality stands in contrast to recent evidence for inversely density-dependent (IDD) mortality. We review the processes responsible for DDD and IDD per capita mortality in reef fishes, noting that the pattern observed depends on predator and prey behavior, the spatial configuration of the reef habitat, and the spatial and temporal scales of observation. Specifically, predators tend to produce DDD prey mortality at their characteristic spatial scale of foraging, but prey mortality is IDD at smaller spatial scales due to attack-abatement effects (e.g., risk dilution). As a result, DDD mortality may be more common than IDD mortality on patch reefs, which tend to constrain predator foraging to the same scale as prey aggregation, eliminating attack-abatement effects. Additionally, adjacent groups of prey on continuous reefs may share a subset of refuges, increasing per capita refuge availability and relaxing DDD mortality relative to prey on patch reefs, where the patch edge could prevent such refuge sharing. These hypotheses lead to a synthetic framework to predict expected mortality patterns for a variety of scenarios. For nonsocial, nonaggregating species and species that aggregate in order to take advantage of spatially clumped refuges, IDD mortality is possible but likely superseded by DDD refuge competition, especially on patch reefs. By contrast, for species that aggregate socially, mortality should be IDD at the scale of individual aggregations but DDD at larger scales. The results of nearly all prior reef fish studies fit within this framework, although additional work is needed to test many of the predicted outcomes. This synthesis reconciles some apparent contradictions in the recent reef fish literature and suggests the importance of accounting for the scale-sensitive details of predator and prey behavior in any study system.

Background: One of the greatest obstacles to moving ecosystem-based management (EBM) from concept to practice is the lack of a systematic approach to defining ecosystem-level decision criteria, or reference points that trigger management action., Methodology/principal Findings: To assist resource managers and policymakers in developing EBM decision criteria, we introduce a quantitative, transferable method for identifying utility thresholds. A utility threshold is the level of human-induced pressure (e.g., pollution) at which small changes produce substantial improvements toward the EBM goal of protecting an ecosystem's structural (e.g., diversity) and functional (e.g., resilience) attributes. The analytical approach is based on the detection of nonlinearities in relationships between ecosystem attributes and pressures. We illustrate the method with a hypothetical case study of (1) fishing and (2) nearshore habitat pressure using an empirically-validated marine ecosystem model for British Columbia, Canada, and derive numerical threshold values in terms of the density of two empirically-tractable indicator groups, sablefish and jellyfish. We also describe how to incorporate uncertainty into the estimation of utility thresholds and highlight their value in the context of understanding EBM trade-offs., Conclusions/significance: For any policy scenario, an understanding of utility thresholds provides insight into the amount and type of management intervention required to make significant progress toward improved ecosystem structure and function. The approach outlined in this paper can be applied in the context of single or multiple human-induced pressures, to any marine, freshwater, or terrestrial ecosystem, and should facilitate more effective management.

Replenishment of many marine populations occurs through the entry of juveniles to adult populations following a pelagic larval stage. Because mortality during the pelagic stage is thought to be high and density independent, larval abundance and traits of individual larvae should have strong effects on overall population dynamics in marine organisms. Surprisingly, few experiments have tested how localized interactions among breeding adults affect the quantity and phenotypic traits of larvae they produce. Here I experimentally test for the influence of food competition, mate limitation, and population density on somatic growth, fecundity, and offspring provisioning (larval length and energy reserves) in a planktivorous, territorial coral reef damselfish, Stegastes partitus. I manipulated food supply and adult S. partitus density on isolated patch reefs in the Bahamas and also made behavioral observations of S. partitus occurring on nearby natural reefs at a range of population densities. On the experimental reefs, females experienced density-dependent growth and fecundity; male reproductive success was density dependent, but male growth was not. Density-dependent growth and reproduction were not moderated by food supplementation, and density-dependent reproduction was not influenced by mate availability. On natural reefs, the frequency of aggressive interactions, particularly involving females, increased with population density, implicating aggression-related energetic costs as the source of both forms of density dependence in the experiments. Food supplementation increased female somatic growth and larval energy reserves, suggesting that females allocated surplus energy to future reproductive potential and enhanced offspring quality. Neither experimental treatment affected larval length. By altering patterns of reproduction, the interplay between spatial variation in food availability and population density may drive population dynamics in a broad range of benthic marine organisms.

Structural refuges within which prey can escape from predators can be an important limiting resource for the prey. In a manner that resembles the childhood game of musical chairs, many prey species rapidly retreat to shared, unguarded refuges whenever a predator threatens, and only when refuges are relatively abundant do all prey individuals actually escape. The key feature of this process is that the per capita prey mortality rate depends on the ratio of prey individuals to refuges. We introduce a new class of mortality functions with this feature and then demonstrate statistically that they describe field mortality data from a well-studied coral reef fish species, the Caribbean bridled goby Coryphopterus glaucofraenum, substantially better than do several mortality functions of more conventional form.

For organisms with complex life cycles, the transition between life stages and between habitats can act as a significant demographic and selective bottleneck. In particular, competition with older and larger conspecifics and heterospecifics may influence the number and characteristics of individuals successfully making the transition. We investigated whether the availability of enemy-free space mediated the interaction between adult goldspot gobies (Gnatholepis thompsoni), a common tropical reef fish, and juvenile conspecifics that had recently settled from the plankton. We added rocks, which provide refuge from predators, to one-half of each of five entire coral reefs in the Bahamas and measured the survival and growth of recent settlers in relation to adult goby densities. We also evaluated whether mortality was selective with respect to three larval traits (age at settlement, size at settlement, and presettlement growth rate) and measured the influence of refuge availability and adult goby density on selection intensity. Selective mortality was measured by comparing larval traits of newly settled gobies (< or = 5 d postsettlement) with those of survivors (2-3 week postsettlement juveniles). We detected a negative relationship between juvenile survival and adult goby density in both low- and high-refuge habitats, though experimental refuge addition reduced the intensity of this density dependence. Juvenile growth also declined with increasing adult goby density, but this effect was similar in both low- and high-refuge habitats. Refuge availability had no consistent effect on selective mortality, but adult goby density was significantly related to the intensity of size-selective mortality: bigger juveniles were favored where adults were abundant, and smaller juveniles were favored where adults were rare. Given the typically large difference in sizes of juveniles and adults, similar stage-structured interactions may be common but underappreciated in many marine species.

Field experiments provide rigorous tests of ecological hypotheses but are typically of short duration and use small spatial replicates. We assessed empirically whether the results of experiments testing for density dependence applied at larger spatial domains and explained temporal population dynamics. We studied a small coral reef fish, the goldspot goby (Gnatholepis thompsoni), in the Bahamas. We assessed the effects of interactions with conspecifics and with an ecologically similar species, the bridled goby (Coryphopterus glaucofraenum). Two density manipulations on small reef patches revealed that goldspot goby mortality over one month increased as conspecifics became crowded. On five large natural reefs, we correlated the initial year-class density of both species (annual larval settlement) with the subsequent decline of goldspot goby year-classes for five years. Mortality was correlated with conspecific density among reefs for all years, but not among years for all reefs. Thus, spatial density dependence in mortality scaled up qualitatively from small patches to entire reefs but was not associated with temporal density dependence. Our results support the conclusion that field experiments may be extrapolated to larger spatial domains with care, but that using small spatial comparisons to predict temporal responses is difficult without knowing the underlying biological mechanisms., (© 2008 by the Ecological Society of America.)