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2. Pandemic Data Quality Modelling: A Bayesian Approach

Author

Ferrari, Luisa, Manzi, Giancarlo, Micheletti, Alessandra, Nicolussi, Federica, and Salini, Silvia

Subjects
Statistics - Applications, Statistics - Other Statistics, 62P10 (Primary), 62F15 (Secondary)
Abstract

When pandemics like COVID-19 spread around the world, the rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives to take prompt decisions and adapt policies depending on the current state of the disease. In this context, it is crucial for policymakers to have always a firm grasp on what is the current state of the pandemic, and to envision how the number of infections and possible deaths is going to evolve over the next weeks. However, as in many other situations involving compulsory registration of sensitive data from multiple collectors, cases might be reported with errors, often with delays deferring an up-to-date view of the state of things. Errors in collecting new cases affect the overall mortality, resulting in excess deaths reported by official statistics only months later. In this paper, we provide tools for evaluating the quality of pandemic mortality data. We accomplish this through a Bayesian approach accounting for the excess mortality pandemics might bring with respect to the normal level of mortality in the population.

Published
2023

4. The Diversity of the English Higher Education System: A Multilevel Quantitative Analysis

Author

Barbato, Giovanni, Grané, Aurea, Salini, Silvia, and Turri, Matteo

Abstract

Although the diversity of higher education (HE) systems is a widely debated topic in literature, this has been rarely examined considering multiple levels of analysis. This article adopts both a multilevel and longitudinal perspective to study which dimensions of horizontal diversity diversified the English HE system most. Diversity, and how this has changed over time, is investigated at the level of the HE system (macro-level) at the level of homogeneous groups of universities, i.e. mission groups (meso-level), and at the level of individual universities (micro-level). The comprehensive multivariate quantitative analysis performed across the three levels of analysis shows the polarization between research and teaching orientation emerges as the dimension on which the HE system and universities horizontally diversify most together with the internationalization of the student body. The analysis furtherly suggests that mission groups well represent the diversity of the English HE system and universities' membership in one of these groups emerged as an element that restrains distinctive institutional positioning patterns of universities. Younger universities and those not affiliated to any mission groups are indeed those that present changes in their strategic positioning paths over time, and thus affect more the diversity of the HE system. However, while the horizontal diversity of the HE system has slightly increased over time, this paper also suggests that competition has concurrently contributed to reinforcing the hierarchical stratification of English universities.

Published
2023
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5. Modelling provincial Covid-19 epidemic data in Italy using an adjusted time-dependent SIRD model

Author

Ferrari, Luisa, Gerardi, Giuseppe, Manzi, Giancarlo, Micheletti, Alessandra, Nicolussi, Federica, Biganzoli, Elia, and Salini, Silvia

Subjects
Statistics - Applications, Physics - Physics and Society, Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution
Abstract

In this paper we develop a predictive model for the spread of COVID-19 infection at a provincial (i.e. EU NUTS-3) level in Italy by using official data from the Italian Ministry of Health integrated with data extracted from daily official press conferences of regional authorities and from local newspaper websites. This integration is mainly concerned with COVID-19 cause specific death data which are not available at NUTS-3 level from open official data data channels. An adjusted time-dependent SIRD model is used to predict the behavior of the epidemic, specifically the number of susceptible, infected, deceased and recovered people. Predictive model performance is evaluated using comparison with real data.

Published
2020

6. COVID-Pro in Italy: a dashboard for a province-based analysis

Author

Ferrari, Luisa, Gerardi, Giuseppe, Manzi, Giancarlo, Micheletti, Alessandra, Nicolussi, Federica, and Salini, Silvia

Subjects
Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, Physics - Physics and Society
Abstract

This paper presents an dashboard developed to analyse the outbreak of the Covid-19 infection in Italy considering daily NUTS-3 data on positive cases provided by the Italian Ministry of Health and on deaths derived from Italian regional authorities' official press conferences. Descriptive time series plots are provided together with a map describing the spatial distribution of province cumulative cases and rates. A section on a proposed time-dependent adjusted SIRD model for NUTS-3 regions is also provided in the dashboard.

Published
2020

8. Mechanical chest compression and extracorporeal life support for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. A 30-month observational study in the metropolitan area of Milan, Italy

Author

Mistraletti, Giovanni, Lancioni, Armando, Bassi, Gabriele, Nespoli, Francesca, Umbrello, Michele, Salini, Silvia, Zangrillo, Alberto, Pappalardo, Federico, Scandroglio, Anna Mara, Foti, Giuseppe, Avalli, Leonello, Patroniti, Nicolò, Raimondi, Ferdinando, Costantini, Elena, Catena, Emanuele, Ottolina, Davide, Ruffini, Claudia, Migliari, Maurizio, Sesana, Giovanni, Fumagalli, Roberto, and Pesenti, Antonio

Published
2023
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9. Shadows over Accreditation in Higher Education: Some Quantitative Evidence

Author

Andreani, Martino, Russo, Daniel, Salini, Silvia, and Turri, Matteo

Abstract

Accreditation systems in higher education are widespread both in the USA and in Europe. However, numerous reservations have appeared in the literature about whether these systems can comprehend and represent the quality of university courses. This study sets out to contribute to this debate by discussing whether the results of the recent university teaching accreditation system in Italy are influenced by the characteristics of degree programmes, their performance, and the characteristics of incoming students. Whilst addressing this research question, this paper intends above all to give a methodological contribution by proposing an evidence-based approach that tackles the limits found in the literature in relation to university accreditation and quality assurance.

Published
2020
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10. Research infrastructures in the LHC era: a scientometric approach

Author

Carrazza, Stefano, Ferrara, Alfio, and Salini, Silvia

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society, Computer Science - Digital Libraries, High Energy Physics - Experiment, High Energy Physics - Phenomenology
Abstract

When a research infrastructure is funded and implemented, new information and new publications are created. This new information is the measurable output of discovery process. In this paper, we describe the impact of infrastructure for physics experiments in terms of publications and citations. In particular, we consider the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) experiments (ATLAS, CMS, ALICE, LHCb) and compare them to the Large Electron Positron Collider (LEP) experiments (ALEPH, DELPHI, L3, OPAL) and the Tevatron experiments (CDF, D0). We provide an overview of the scientific output of these projects over time and highlight the role played by remarkable project results in the publication-citation distribution trends. The methodological and technical contribution of this work provides a starting point for the development of a theoretical model of modern scientific knowledge propagation over time., Comment: 39 pages, 9 figures, final version published in TFS Special Issue with updated references

Published
2016
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11. Social networks, happiness and health: from sentiment analysis to a multidimensional indicator of subjective well-being

Author

Iacus, Stefano Maria, Porro, Giuseppe, Salini, Silvia, and Siletti, Elena

Subjects
Statistics - Applications, Computer Science - Computers and Society, Computer Science - Social and Information Networks, Physics - Physics and Society, 91D30, 97K80
Abstract

This paper applies a novel technique of opinion analysis over social media data with the aim of proposing a new indicator of perceived and subjective well-being. This new index, namely SWBI, examines several dimension of individual and social life. The indicator has been compared to some other existing indexes of well-being and health conditions in Italy: the BES (Benessere Equo Sostenibile), the incidence rate of influenza and the abundance of PM10 in urban environments. SWBI is a daily measure available at province level. BES data, currently available only for 2013 and 2014, are annual and available at regional level. Flu data are weekly and distributed as regional data and PM10 are collected daily for different cities. Due to the fact that the time scale and space granularity of the different indexes varies, we apply a novel statistical technique to discover nowcasting features and the classical latent analysis to study the relationships among them. A preliminary analysis suggest that the environmental and health conditions anticipate several dimensions of the perception of well-being as measured by SWBI. Moreover, the set of indicators included in the BES represent a latent dimension of well-being which shares similarities with the latent dimension represented by SWBI., Comment: 26 pages, 5 figure

Published
2015

19. Enteral versus intravenous approach for the sedation of critically ill patients: a randomized and controlled trial

Author

Mistraletti, Giovanni, Umbrello, Michele, Salini, Silvia, Cadringher, Paolo, Formenti, Paolo, Chiumello, Davide, Villa, Cristina, Russo, Riccarda, Francesconi, Silvia, Valdambrini, Federico, Bellani, Giacomo, Palo, Alessandra, Riccardi, Francesca, Ferretti, Enrica, Festa, Maurilio, Gado, Anna Maria, Taverna, Martina, Pinna, Cristina, Barbiero, Alessandro, Ferrari, Pier Alda, Iapichino, Gaetano, and the SedaEN investigators

Published
2019
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20. Mechanical chest compression and extracorporeal life support for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. A 30-month observational study in the metropolitan area of Milan, Italy

Author

Mistraletti, G, Lancioni, A, Bassi, G, Nespoli, F, Umbrello, M, Salini, S, Zangrillo, A, Pappalardo, F, Scandroglio, A, Foti, G, Avalli, L, Patroniti, N, Raimondi, F, Costantini, E, Catena, E, Ottolina, D, Ruffini, C, Migliari, M, Sesana, G, Fumagalli, R, Pesenti, A, Mistraletti, Giovanni, Lancioni, Armando, Bassi, Gabriele, Nespoli, Francesca, Umbrello, Michele, Salini, Silvia, Zangrillo, Alberto, Pappalardo, Federico, Scandroglio, Anna Mara, Foti, Giuseppe, Avalli, Leonello, Patroniti, Nicolò, Raimondi, Ferdinando, Costantini, Elena, Catena, Emanuele, Ottolina, Davide, Ruffini, Claudia, Migliari, Maurizio, Sesana, Giovanni, Fumagalli, Roberto, Pesenti, Antonio, Mistraletti, G, Lancioni, A, Bassi, G, Nespoli, F, Umbrello, M, Salini, S, Zangrillo, A, Pappalardo, F, Scandroglio, A, Foti, G, Avalli, L, Patroniti, N, Raimondi, F, Costantini, E, Catena, E, Ottolina, D, Ruffini, C, Migliari, M, Sesana, G, Fumagalli, R, Pesenti, A, Mistraletti, Giovanni, Lancioni, Armando, Bassi, Gabriele, Nespoli, Francesca, Umbrello, Michele, Salini, Silvia, Zangrillo, Alberto, Pappalardo, Federico, Scandroglio, Anna Mara, Foti, Giuseppe, Avalli, Leonello, Patroniti, Nicolò, Raimondi, Ferdinando, Costantini, Elena, Catena, Emanuele, Ottolina, Davide, Ruffini, Claudia, Migliari, Maurizio, Sesana, Giovanni, Fumagalli, Roberto, and Pesenti, Antonio

Abstract

Background: Return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) is achieved in 25% of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients. Mechanical chest compression (mechCPR) may maintain better perfusion during transport, allowing hospital treatments like extracorporeal circulation life support (ECLS). We aim to assess the effectiveness of a pre-hospital protocol introduction. Methods: Observational, retrospective study assessing all OHCA patients aged 12-75, with no-flow time <20 min in a metropolitan area (Milan, Italy, 2013-2016). Primary outcomes: ROSC and Cerebral Performance Category score (CPC) <2 at hospital discharge. Logistic regressions with multiple comparison adjustments balanced with propensity scores calculated with inverse probability of treatment weighting were performed. Results: 1366 OHCA were analysed; 305 received mechCPR, 1061 manual chest compressions (manCPR), and 108 ECLS. ROSC and CPC <2 were associated with low-flow minutes (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] 0.90 [0.88-0.91] and 0.90 [0.87-0.93]), shockable rhythm (2.52 [1.71- 3.72] and 10.68 [5.63-20.28]), defibrillations number (1.15 [1.07-1.23] and 1.15 [1.04-1.26]), and mechCPR (1.86 [1.17-2.96] and 2.06 [1.11- 3.81]). With resuscitation times >13 min, mechCPR achieved more frequently ROSC compared to manCPR. Among ECLS patients, 70% had time exceeding protocol: 8 (7.5%) had CPC <= 2 (half of them with low-flow times between 45 and 90 min), 2 (1.9%) survived with severe neurological disabilities, and 13 brain-dead (12.0%) became organ donors. Conclusions: MechCPR patients achieved ROSC more frequently than manual CPR patients; mechCPR was a crucial factor in an ECLS protocol for refractory OHCA. ECLS offered a chance of survival to patients who would otherwise die.

Published
2023

24. Robust Multivariate Calibration

Author

Salini, Silvia, Bock, H. -H., editor, Gaul, W., editor, Vichi, M., editor, Arabie, Ph., editor, Baier, D., editor, Critchley, F., editor, Decker, R., editor, Diday, E., editor, Greenacre, M., editor, Lauro, C., editor, Meulman, J., editor, Monari, P., editor, Nishisato, S., editor, Ohsumi, N., editor, Opitz, O., editor, Ritter, G., editor, Schader, M., editor, Weihs, C., editor, Zani, Sergio, editor, Cerioli, Andrea, editor, Riani, Marco, editor, and Vichi, Maurizio, editor

Published
2006
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25. Data Mining Analysis on Italian Family Preferences and Expenditures

Author

Annoni, Paola, Ferrari, Pier Alda, Salini, Silvia, Hutchison, David, editor, Kanade, Takeo, editor, Kittler, Josef, editor, Kleinberg, Jon M., editor, Mattern, Friedemann, editor, Mitchell, John C., editor, Naor, Moni, editor, Nierstrasz, Oscar, editor, Pandu Rangan, C., editor, Steffen, Bernhard, editor, Sudan, Madhu, editor, Terzopoulos, Demetri, editor, Tygar, Dough, editor, Vardi, Moshe Y., editor, Weikum, Gerhard, editor, Carbonell, Jaime G., editor, Siekmann, Jörg, editor, and Perner, Petra, editor

Published
2006
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27. Confidence Regions in Multivariate Calibration: A Proposal

Author

Zappa, Diego, Salini, Silvia, Bock, H.-H., editor, Gaul, W., editor, Vichi, M., editor, Arabie, Ph., editor, Baier, D., editor, Critchley, F., editor, Decker, R., editor, Diday, E., editor, Greenacre, M., editor, Lauro, C., editor, Meulman, J., editor, Monari, P., editor, Nishisato, S., editor, Ohsumi, N., editor, Opitz, O., editor, Ritter, G., editor, Schader, M., editor, Weihs, C., editor, Vichi, Maurizio, editor, Monari, Paola, editor, Mignani, Stefania, editor, and Montanari, Angela, editor

Published
2005
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37. Modeling Provincial Covid-19 Epidemic Data Using an Adjusted Time-Dependent SIRD Model

Author

Ferrari, Luisa, Gerardi, Giuseppe, Manzi, Giancarlo, Micheletti, Alessandra, Nicolussi, Federica, Biganzoli, Elia, and Salini, Silvia

Subjects
Italy, SARS-CoV-2, EU NUTS-3 regions, Humans, COVID-19, Medicine, SIRD-derived models, Epidemics, epidemic data, Article, Forecasting
Abstract

In this paper, we develop a forecasting model for the spread of COVID-19 infection at a provincial (i.e., EU NUTS-3) level in Italy by using official data from the Italian Ministry of Health integrated with data extracted from daily official press conferences of regional authorities and local newspaper websites. This data integration is needed as COVID-19 death data are not available at the NUTS-3 level from official open data channels. An adjusted time-dependent SIRD model is used to predict the behavior of the epidemic, specifically, the number of susceptible, infected, deceased, recovered people and epidemiological parameters. Predictive model performance is evaluated using comparison with real data.

Published
2021

38. Are Epidemiological Estimates Able to Describe the Ability of Health Systems to Cope with COVID-19 Epidemic?

Author

Castaldi, Silvana, Luconi, Ester, Rivieccio, Bruno Alessandro, Boracchi, Patrizia, Marano, Giuseppe, Pariani, Elena, Romano, Luisa, Auxilia, Francesco, Nicolussi, Federica, Micheletti, Alessandra, Manzi, Giancarlo, Salini, Silvia, Galli, Massimo, and Biganzoli, Elia

Subjects
Risk Management and Healthcare Policy, region, Italy, COVID-19, health systems, epidemic, epidemiological estimates, Original Research
Abstract

Silvana Castaldi,1,2,* Ester Luconi,3,* Bruno Alessandro Rivieccio,4,* Patrizia Boracchi,3 Giuseppe Marano,3 Elena Pariani,2 Luisa Romano,2 Francesco Auxilia,1 Federica Nicolussi,5 Alessandra Micheletti,6 Giancarlo Manzi,5 Silvia Salini,5 Massimo Galli,7,* Elia Biganzoli3,* 1Department of Biomedical Sciences for Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy; 2Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore di Milano, Milan, Italy; 3Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health & DSRC, University of Milan, Milan, Italy; 4Niguarda Hospital, AREU, Regional Emergency Service Agency, Milan, Italy; 5Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods & DSRC, University of Milan, Milan, Italy; 6Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of Milan, Milan, Italy; 7Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences “L. Sacco”, University of Milan, Milan, Italy*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Silvana CastaldiDepartment Biomedical Sciences for Health, University of Milan, Via Pascal, 36, Milan, 20133, ItalyTel +390255038342Fax +390255033144Email silvana.castaldi@unimi.itIntroduction: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic is an infectious disease which was declared a pandemic and hit countries worldwide from the beginning of the year 2020. Despite the emergency vigilance plans, health systems in all countries experienced a different ratio of lethality, amount of admissions to intensive care units and quarantine management of positive patients. The aim of this study is to investigate whether some epidemiological estimates could have been useful in understanding the capacity of the Italian Regional Health Services to manage the COVID-19 epidemic.Methods: We have compared data between two different Italian regions in the Northern part of Italy (Lombardy and Veneto) and the national data to determine whether different health strategies might be significant in explaining dissimilar patterns of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. Data have been extracted from a public database and were available only in an aggregated form.Results: The regions in question displayed two different health policies to face the COVID-19 epidemic: while Veneto’s health service was largely territorially oriented, Lombardy’s strategy was more hospital-centered.Discussion: The key to facing epidemics like this one consists in identifying solutions outside of hospitals. This however requires there be well-trained general practitioners and enough healthcare personnel working outside hospitals.Keywords: COVID-19, epidemic, epidemiological estimates, health systems, region, Italy

Published
2021

41. Deepening well-being evaluation with different data sources: A bayesian networks approach

Author

Cugnata, Federica, Salini, Silvia, Siletti, Elena, Cugnata, F., Salini, S., and Siletti, E.

Subjects
Geography, Sentiment analysis (list three to ten), Well-being, sentiment analysis (list three to ten), Bayes Theorem, Article, Big data, Bayesian networks, Life satisfaction, Italy, big data, well-being, Surveys and Questionnaires, Medicine, Humans, life satisfaction
Abstract

In this paper, we focus on a Bayesian network s approach to combine traditional survey and social network data and official statistics to evaluate well-being. Bayesian networks permit the use of data with different geographical levels (provincial and regional) and time frequencies (daily, quarterly, and annual). The aim of this study was twofold: to describe the relationship between survey and social network data and to investigate the link between social network data and official statistics. Particularly, we focused on whether the big data anticipate the information provided by the official statistics. The applications, referring to Italy from 2012 to 2017, were performed using ISTAT’s survey data, some variables related to the considered time period or geographical levels, a composite index of well-being obtained by Twitter data, and official statistics that summarize the labor market.

Published
2021

44. Are Epidemiological Estimates Able to Describe the Ability of Health Systems to Cope with COVID-19 Epidemic?

Author

Castaldi,Silvana, Luconi,Ester, Rivieccio,Bruno Alessandro, Boracchi,Patrizia, Marano,Giuseppe, Pariani,Elena, Romano,Luisa, Auxilia,Francesco, Nicolussi,Federica, Micheletti,Alessandra, Manzi,Giancarlo, Salini,Silvia, Galli,Massimo, Biganzoli,Elia, Castaldi,Silvana, Luconi,Ester, Rivieccio,Bruno Alessandro, Boracchi,Patrizia, Marano,Giuseppe, Pariani,Elena, Romano,Luisa, Auxilia,Francesco, Nicolussi,Federica, Micheletti,Alessandra, Manzi,Giancarlo, Salini,Silvia, Galli,Massimo, and Biganzoli,Elia

Abstract

Silvana Castaldi,1,2,* Ester Luconi,3,* Bruno Alessandro Rivieccio,4,* Patrizia Boracchi,3 Giuseppe Marano,3 Elena Pariani,2 Luisa Romano,2 Francesco Auxilia,1 Federica Nicolussi,5 Alessandra Micheletti,6 Giancarlo Manzi,5 Silvia Salini,5 Massimo Galli,7,* Elia Biganzoli3,* 1Department of Biomedical Sciences for Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy; 2Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore di Milano, Milan, Italy; 3Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health & DSRC, University of Milan, Milan, Italy; 4Niguarda Hospital, AREU, Regional Emergency Service Agency, Milan, Italy; 5Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods & DSRC, University of Milan, Milan, Italy; 6Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of Milan, Milan, Italy; 7Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences “L. Sacco”, University of Milan, Milan, Italy*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Silvana CastaldiDepartment Biomedical Sciences for Health, University of Milan, Via Pascal, 36, Milan, 20133, ItalyTel +390255038342Fax +390255033144Email silvana.castaldi@unimi.itIntroduction: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic is an infectious disease which was declared a pandemic and hit countries worldwide from the beginning of the year 2020. Despite the emergency vigilance plans, health systems in all countries experienced a different ratio of lethality, amount of admissions to intensive care units and quarantine management of positive patients. The aim of this study is to investigate whether some epidemiological estimates could have been useful in understanding the capacity of the Italian Regional Health Services to manage the COVID-19 epidemic.Methods: We have compared data between two different Italian regions in the Northern part of Italy (Lombardy and Veneto) and the national data to determine whether different health strategies might be significant in explaining dissim

Published
2021

50. CoViD-19, learning from the past: A wavelet and cross-correlation analysis of the epidemic dynamics looking to emergency calls and Twitter trends in Italian Lombardy region

Author

Rivieccio, Bruno Alessandro, primary, Micheletti, Alessandra, additional, Maffeo, Manuel, additional, Zignani, Matteo, additional, Comunian, Alessandro, additional, Nicolussi, Federica, additional, Salini, Silvia, additional, Manzi, Giancarlo, additional, Auxilia, Francesco, additional, Giudici, Mauro, additional, Naldi, Giovanni, additional, Gaito, Sabrina, additional, Castaldi, Silvana, additional, and Biganzoli, Elia, additional

Published
2021
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